Zero to One
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Transcript of Zero to One
ZERO TO ONELecture by Martin Mucha
NYC, April 18th 2015
PETER THIEL• PAYPAL
• PALANTIR
• CLARIUM CAPITAL
• ANGEL INVESTOR
• VENTURE CAPITALIST
• MITHRIL
• Y COMBINATOR
CHAPTER 1 - THE CHALLENGE OF THE FUTURE
horizontal or extensive progresscopying things that work
vertical or intensive progressdoing new things
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CHAPTER 2 - PARTY LIKE IT’S 1999
• DON’T:
• Make Incremental Advances
• Stay lean and flexible
• Improve on the competition
• Focus on product, not sales
• DO:
• It’s better to risk boldness than triviality.
• A bad plan is better than no plan.
• Competitive markets destroy profits.
• Sales maters just as much as product.
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PRINCE
“Cause they say 2,000 zero zero party over, oops! Out of time! So tonight I am gonna party like it’s 1999.”
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CHAPTER 3 - ALL HAPPY COMPANIES ARE DIFFERENT
Firm A
Firm A
Firm B
Firm B
MonopolyPerfect Competition
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CHAPTER 4 - THE IDEOLOGY OF COMPETITION
There is no middle ground:
Either don’t throw any punches, or strike hard and end it quickly.
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CHAPTER 5 - LAST MOVER ADVANTAGE
• CHARACTERISTICS OF MONOPOLY
• Proprietary technology
• Network Effect
• Economies of Scale
• Branding
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• BUILDING A MONOPOLY
• Start Small and Monopolize
• Scaling Up
• Don’t disrupt
• THE LAST WILL BE FIRST
CHAPTER 6 - YOU ARE NOT A LOTTERY TICKET
CAN YOU CONTROL YOUR FUTURE?
• Indefine Pessimism
• Define Pessimism
• Define Optimism
• Idenfine Optimism 9
CHAPTER 7 - FOLLOW THE MONEY
• The Power Law of Venture Capital
• Why people don’t see the Power Law
• What to do with the Power Law
Compound interest is the eight wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it… He who doesn’t… pays it.
ALBERT EINSTEIN
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CHAPTER 8 - SECRETS
• Why aren’t people looking for secrets?
• The world according to convention
• The case for secrets
• How to find secrets
• What to do with secrets
mysteriesconventions secrets
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CHAPTER 9 - FOUNDATIONS
• Founding Matrimony
• Ownership, Possession, and Control
• On the bus or off the bus
• Cash is not king
• Vested Interest
• Extending the founding12
CHAPTER 10 - THE MECHANICS OF MAFIA
• Beyond Professionalism
• Recruiting Conspirators
• What’s under Silicon Valley hoodies
• Do one thing
• Of cults and consultants
0 to 1cult (dogmatism)consultants (nihilism)
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CHAPTER 11 - IF YOU BUILD IT, WILL THEY COME?
• Nerds vs. salesman
• Sales is hidden
Dead Zone$1 $100 $10,000 $10 M
Viral Marketing Marketing Sales Complex Sales
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• How to sell a product
• Everybody sells
CHAPTER 12 - MAN AND MACHINE
• Substitution vs. Complementarity
• Technology means Complementarity
• Complementarity Business
• The Ideology of Computer Science
• Ever smarter computer friends of foe?15
CHAPTER 13 - SEEING GREEN
• The engineering question
• The timing question
• The monopoly question
• The people question
• The distribution question
• The durability question
• The secret question
QESTIONS716
CHAPTER 14 - FOUNDER’S PARADOX
• The difference engine
• Where kings come from
• American Royalty
• The return of the king
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CONCLUSION
• STAGNATION OR SINGULARITY
• Recurrent collapse
• Plateau
• Extinction
• Takeoff
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Peter Thiel
“The essential first step is to think for yourself. Only by seeing our world anew, as fresh and strange as it was to the ancients who saw it first, can we both re-create
it and preserve it for the future .”
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THANK YOU
MERCI DANKE
धन्यवाद
谢谢
GRACIAS
감사합니다
DĚKUJI
ありがとうGRAZIE תודה
شكرا
СПАСИБО