Zandersen et al 102 final [Read-Only] - DCE conference · Subproject: Biodiversity ›Two...
Transcript of Zandersen et al 102 final [Read-Only] - DCE conference · Subproject: Biodiversity ›Two...
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VERSITET
Marianne Zandersen, Sisse Liv Jørgensen, Mette Termansen, Steen Gyldenkærne, Doan Nainggolan, Anne Winding, Louise Martinsen
2nd Science for the Environment ConferenceAarhus, Denmark 3-4 October 2012
AARHUS UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCEOctober 4, 2013
UNI
Climate regulating service from no -tillage in Danish agriculture – Costs and Effects
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Ecosys Project› Aim : Provide test cases for national analyses of ES mapping and
economic valuation to provide input to the development of anoperational framework for assessment of ES.
› Selected Services : – Provision (Food)– Regulatory (Climate , Fresh Water Quality , Pollination )– Cultural (Recreation ) – Biodiversity
› Participants : Hans Estrup Andersen, Thomas Becker, Jørgen Brandt, Berit
Hasler, Brian Kronvang, Janus Larsen, Gregor Levin, Louise Martinsen, Flemming
Møller, Doan Nainggolan, Steen Solvang, Peter Borgen Sørensen, Mette
Termansen , Anne Winding, Marianne Zandersen
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Main principles for application of the INVEST model (Lonsdorf et al., 2009)
Basic GIS data (Basemap, Gregor et al., 2012; Jepsen et Levin, 2013)
Estimate relative wild bee abundance based on area attributes
Estimate crop position and area based on area attri butes
Estimate relative crop pollination potential
Subproject: Crop Pollination Services
Participants: Peter Borgen Jørgensen, Gregor Levin
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Subproject: Recreation Services (in collaboration with DØRS)
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› National mapping and valuation of recreation services from all types of green spaces
› Survey data: national representative household sample
› Site characteristics: – Land use: 36 categories of land use; each 10m2
assigned a category (Basemap, Levin 2012)– Other : noise levels, site ownership, road
densities
› Valuation approach: discrete choice framework (Termansen et al. 2004; Zandersen et al. 2007; Termansen et al. 2013)
Participants: Mette Termansen, Thomas Becker, Marianne Zandersen
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Subproject: Biodiversity
› Two dimensions of biodiversity:– Habitat quantity
− Area of habitat types according to national registrations (based on Basemap (Levin et al. 2012; Jepsen et Levin, 2013)
– Habitat quality
− Indicator reflecting presence of different red-listed and indicator species (based on Danish High Nature Value Indicator (Ejrnæs et al. 2012))
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Participant: Gregor Levin
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Subproject: Water Quality Regulation
› Two objectives: – Water resources accounts – recommendations and description of
data needs, exemplified by the Odense area– Mapping and valuation of water ecosystem services in Odense
catchment
› Model chain:
› The resulting ecosystem services are estimated by a valuation study for Odense – fjord, river and lakes.
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Agricultural economic model – land use
Nutrient loads to the fjord
Modelled effects on marine indicators
Ecosystem services
Participants: Berit Hasler, Flemming Møller, Louise Martinsen, Janus Larsen, Brian Kronvang, Hans Estrup Andersen
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Sub-project: Climate regulating service from enhancing soil organic carbon
› Carbon in soil and biomass plays a crucial role in regulating the global carbon cycle
› Soil carbon stocks are declining in many regions
› Denmark has lost on average ca. 1.2MtCO2eq/yr since 1990 from mineral cropland
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Source: DCE, 2013
Danish
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Aims of project
› Assess carbon sequestration effects of no-tillage on mineral cropland
› Estimate costs of setting up a voluntary Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES)
› Marginal abatement costs of no-tillage & comparison with other mitigation option costs
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Tillage practices
› Conventional tillage – mouldboard ploughing in autumn and spring to a normal depth of 18-30cm, followed by seed bed preparation and sowing
› Reduced (shallow) tillage – Soil tillage to a maximum depth of 10cm by means of a cultivator, disc harrow, or rotovator
› Direct drilling (or non-tillage) - Direct drilling in un-tilled soil where straw has been removed or burned and weeds have been killed by use of chemicals.
› Conservation tillage - Plant residues have been left on the soil surface. Plant establishment is made by use of direct drilling or reduced soil tillage methods.
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Enhanced ecosystem services through reduced or no -tillage› Improvements in soil structure (soil aggregate stability) by letting air and
water enter the soil:– regulates risks of dry conditions (reduced surface crusting -> improves germination
and seedling establishment)– regulates inundations as water infiltration rate increases (hydrological regulation)
› Accumulation of organic carbon (carbon sequestration)
› Enhanced soil fauna (biodiversity – earth worms and fungal communities)
› Increases in soil nutrients (available potassium & phosphorous)
› Protection against soil erosion
› Enhanced soil aggregate stability
› Decreased leaching of nitrogen
Source: Rasmussen, 1999; Andersen, 1987
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
IPCC Guidelines on Carbon Stock Effects of Tillage Practices
Default reference
Stock change factors
(tCHA-1
0-30cm)High input w. manure
Medium input
Land use(over 20 years)
Full tillage
Reduced tillage
No tillage
HAC soils 95
1.44 (+/-13%)
10.69
(+/-12%)1 1.08 1.15
LAC soils 85
Sandy soils
71
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HAC – high activity clay; LAC – low activity clay
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Carbon sequestration on no-tillage cropland –medium input
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Sandy soil
LAC soil
HAC soil}771.000tC/yr = 2.8MtCO2eq/yr
1.5tCO2eq/ha/yr
Agri excluded” = grassland in rotation; permanent grassland and organic soils
LAC= Soil types 4-6; HAC= Soil types 7-10; Sandy soil= Soil types 1-3
Copyright: DCA, Aarhus University
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
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Farmers’ views on no-tillage
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
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Farmers’ views
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Marianne Zandersen.October 4, 2013Assessing Ecosystem Services
How is no-tillage applied?
Farmers with experience in no-tillage (NT)
› Ca. 5% of respondents practice NT on their whole land
› Almost 20% of respondents practice NT to some extent.
Farmers without experience in NT
› 6% consider starting with NT
› Vast majority of those interested would need more information before starting (70%)
› 17% would need compensation and ca. 7% a guarantee on yield-loss compensation
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Farmers’ preferences for potential NT schemes (N=483)
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Variable Coefficient
No Tillage 25% 0,23**
No Tillage 50% -0,28**
No Tillage 75% -0,70***
Sludge (1=yes) -0,05
Contract length (1=10 yrs) -0,11**
Contract cancellation (1=yes) 0,13**
Compensation (dkr) 0,0033***
ASC_SQ 2,54***
LL2 -2466,86
MNL Regression
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Public Costs of implementing no -tillage as a performance contract
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Reduced tillage
(% of land area)
Compensation
(dkr/ha/yr)
50% 995
75% 1103
› Welfare estimate based on contracts of 10yrs with possibility of cancelling the contract at any time with no additional costs; no sludge involved.
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Public total costs & marginal costs of implementing No -tillage
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Reduced tillage
(% of land area)
Total costs
(bn dkr)
Marginal costs
(dkr/tCO2e)
50% 1.0 454a-653b
75% 1.65 503a-724b
a High input
b Medium input
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Marginal Abatement Costs - Denmark
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Abatement target for non-energy sectors by 2020
Source: Kebmin, 2013
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Conclusions/Perspectives
› No-tillage is potentially a significant contributor to reducing carbon emissions:
– No-tillage could potentially sequester 2.8-4MtCO2eq/yr calculated over a 20 year period if all mineral soils were under no-tillage
– Contracting with farmers for 50%-75% of their land could potentially sequester up to 2.2-3.3MtCO2eq/yr (over a 20yr period)
› Contracts are expensive due to high shares of farmers resisting. – This is not only the cost of implementing the measure but includes the costs of
getting farmers on board– If a regulation is made in stead, the public would not incur these costs
› Abatement costs appear to be well within reasonable ranges– Marginal costs of NT are below the missing 4.03MtCO2eq in terms of marginal
costs and cumulative emissions
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Zandersen et al..October 4, 2013No-tillage and climate regulating services
Continuing work…
› Latent class analysis of farmers’ preferences – are there significant groupings among farmers?
› Danish field data on no-tillage effects – by how much will this differ from IPCC guidelines?
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AARHUS UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Marianne ZandersenEnvironmental Social Science Grouptel: +45 8715 [email protected]
Thank you for your attention
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