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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 29 July 2011

FX OutlookDaily Market Technicals

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1Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Friday, 29 July 2011

Current Price: 1.4344Daily EUR/USD Chart

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:

Comment: EUR/USD has again seen another counter trend move.Upside momentum has fizzled out at 1.4537and focus has again shifted

to underlying support. The 38.2% retracement support at 1.4270 is being

tested. We will need a close below here to alleviate upside pressure andconcentrate efforts on supports this would target 1.4185, then1.4020/00 en route to the 200 day ma at 1.3928.

While no close below 1.4270 is seen, we remain unable to rule out stabshigher. Intraday rallies are expected to find nearby resistance at 1.4440

and will remain slightly offered below here. Above here will re-focusattention on to the 1.4537 recent high then the 1.4580 early July high en

route to 1.4694/1.4704, where we look for the rally to fail.

Todays trade: Longs stopped. Attempt tiny longs at market, add 1.4270,stops 1.4250. Cover 1.4520.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Downtrend eroded, target 1.4694/1.4704.

Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.5000/1.5145 region.Targets 1.3748/13 (2010-2011 uptrend and 55 week ma), then 1.20.

Support

1.43111.4270*1.4187*1.40151.3968*

Reason

55 day maFiboMinor FiboLow 18 JulyMa trou h

Resistance

1.4520/371.4580**1.46471.4696**1.4704**

Reason

Early July high

Recent high78.6% Fibo

EUR/USD consolidating at Fibo support

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USD/CHF continues to sit on .8000

Daily USD/CHF Chart

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:Current Price: 0.8002

Comment: USD/CHF no change has held over the .8000 support area(psychological support) all week we favour a bounce. We have an

additional support line cutting in at .7949, which connects the lows since

March and ideally we would like to see a rebound from here today. Initialresistance is found at the near term resistance line at .8109 ahead of.8276, the June low and the downtrend at .8344..

Below .7949, the major support is not encountered until 0.7450, the 33year support line (connects lows from 1978). The base of the 2011

channel cuts in at .7750. We also have a point & Figure target of 0.77.

Todays trade: Long .8018 stops below .7965. Cover .8200

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Probing the .8000/.7975 support

Medium term (1-3 months): Look for signs of stabilisation around the

.80 mark.

Support

.8000/.7997**

.7949

.7965

.7750/40

.7439

Reason

LowSupport lineTDsupportChannelSL

Resistance

.8109

.8276/79**

.8327*

.8364

.8344**

Reason

Resistance lineJune lowEarly June low6

thJuly low

Downtrend

Downtrend at

.8344

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GBP/USD consolidating above support at 1.6260

Daily GBP/USD Chart

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:Current Price: 1.6347

Comment: GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.6260, the end of Junehigh and lows for end of July. While above here we maintain scope for

gains to 1.6540/47, the 78.6% retracement of the move down from the

April peak and the May peak.

This is considered to be the last defense for the 1..6745/90 April peak

and 200 week ma..

Below 1.6260 we would allow for a slide back to the 55 day ma at 1.6204

only below here does the chart picture turn more negative and re-focusattention on 1.6068 (200 day ma).

Todays trade: Long 1.6265, raise stops to below 1.6260. Partially cover1.6525, looking to reverse longs on rallies to 1.6745/90 tight stops

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break of near term resistance targets 1.6395

then 1.6745/90.

Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to slightly positive allow for retestof the 1.7050 pivot which is expected to provoke failiure.

Support

1.6260/651.6204*1.6165/301.6068*1.6000*

Reason

End July high55 dmaMinor Fibo200 dmaPs ch su ort

Resistance

1.64721.6540/47**1.6740/45**1.6768**1.6877*

Reason

7 June highJune highApril peak200 week maSe t. 2009 hi h

Support at 1.6265/60

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USD/JPY under pressure

Daily USD/JPY Chart


Comment: USD/JPY has again inched lower and again, its new low hasnot been confirmed by the daily RSI and some caution is warranted. We

note various Elliot wave counts on intraday and daily charts imply the

market is either at or close to a low. We have minor support ay 77.30/25and this is the last defence for the 76.25 low.

A negative bias remains. Minor resistance is found between the May andJune lows and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 79.57/88 and aroundthe psychological 80.00 mark and the market will need to regain this in

order to alleviate immediate downside pressure.

Todays trade: Attempt tiny longs at market, add 77.00, stop below

76.25.Cover 79.50.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Is focused on support.

Medium term (1-3 month): Neutral to negative. Must clear 4 yeardowntrend at 82.55 for any recovery to be viable.

Support

77.57, 77.2976.25**75.00*74.73*73.90

Reason

March lowPsych. support2009-2011 suppline

Resistance

79.57/88*80.00*80.7480.3681.14

Reason

May/Jun low&FibPsych. resistanceCloud55 dma.100 dma

Current Price: 77.54

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EUR/JPY negative bias below the 113.62/114.00 resistance.

Daily EUR/JPY Chart


Comment: EUR/JPY remains under pressure and the market looks setto drift lower, following stubborn rejection at the 113.63/985 resistance

(200 day ma).

Key near term support is the 110.10/109.58 area, which represents the78.6% retracement and the recent low and we suspect that this will again

hold. This is seen as the last defense for the January and March106.83/50 troughs.

We would need to see a close above 114.00 to alleviate immediatedownside risk and signal a recovery to the 116.11 3 month resistance

line.

Todays trade: Shorts from 112.85, covered 112.05.Resell 112.25,112.85, stops over 113.65. Cover 110.10.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break down from range targets 110.10, then108.90.

Medium term (1-3 months): Based at 106.50/105.45.

Support

111.44110.66110.10**109.58108.90**

Reason

Low 18th

July78.6% FibonacciTuesdays lowMeasure tar et

Resistance

113.33113.40/50*113.62**114.00**114.92

Reason

55 week maMay & June lowsResist line200 dma50% retracement

Current Price: 111.20

Resistance line at

113.63

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Daily EUR/GBP Chart

Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:Current Price: .8768

EUR/GBP stalled at the 38.2% Fibo retracement at .8850

Comment: EUR/GBP has sold off following its failure to register a closeabove the 38.2% retracement resistance at .8850 (of the move down

from the July peak). Further consolidation is likely but we suspect that

last weeks low at .8712/06, was an interim low and we look for furtherstabilisation here. We would allow for a move back towards .8977/.9000(mid June high).

Only below .8700 will re-engage the 200 day moving average at .8667and introduce potential to .8612 then .8533, the four year uptrend line.

Todays trade: Attempt tiny longs on dips to .8728, 12, stops below

.8706. Cover .8977.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Attempting to stabilise above .8700.

Medium term (1-3 months): View has been neutralised.

Support

.8723**

.8712/06**

.8675*

.8666*

.8640*

Reason

16th

June lowFibo + rec low12

thMay low

200 dma5 month SL

Resistance

.8850

.8890/95

.8941**

.8977

.9042**

Reason

Minor fiboOct 2010 highJune highMa hi h

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Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:Current Price 1.1480

EUR/CHF looking for market to stabilise 1.1450-1.1358

Daily EUR/CHF Chart

Comment: EUR/CHF has again eased off, to leave the outlookunchanged, very near term it is on the defensive but we look for recent

lows at 1.1365/58 to hold.

It should be noted that we suspect the low is in place for now as themarket has recently reversed from a long term Fibo support at 1.1358

and we look for this rebound to retest the 55 day ma and then reach1.1946/1.2000 as a minimum. Intraday rallies will find resistance at1.1700.

Todays trade: Holding tiny longs 1.1465 stops below 1.1350. Cover

1.1800.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Should recover to downtrend.

Medium term (1-3 months): We suspect the market is basing at

1.1364/58

Support

1.1475/501.14101.1365**1.13581.1290

Reason

Minor Fibo

LowFibo extension240 min P+F

Resistance

1.1700, 1.17701.1808**1.1946*1.20001.2053

Reason

June lowMid-June lowPsych. resistanceEarl June low

Previous low at 1.1808

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Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes;

Tuesday: Bullion Weekly Technicals;

Wednesday: Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: technical contribution to the Emerging Markets Bi-Weekly;

Friday: Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.

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Explanation:

This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts.

Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or

resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance.Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points.

SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends.

Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points.

RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends.

Fibo = Fibonacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels.Fibox = Fibonacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels.

Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance.

St = Short term level (for example St Fibonacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows)

Lt = Long term level (for example Lt Fibonacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows)

55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average

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Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425

Mail [email protected]

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Mainwww.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am MainTel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721

Mail [email protected]

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