Z28072011

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1Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 28 July 2011

Current Price: 1.4515Daily EUR/USD ChartTodays outlook: Weekly outlook:

Comment: EUR/USD has eroded the accelerated uptrend at 1.4371,and this alleviates extreme upside pressure. The question is is this theend of the upmove for now. Possibly, we have charted a series of lower

highs since April. However we need more evidence and a close below1.4270 would be needed to confirm. While above here we will assumescope remains for a test of 1.4580, the early July peak and then1.4694/1.4704, the June high and 78.6% retracement of the move downfrom May.

We regard the 1.4704 resistance as the last defense for the 1.4940 Mayhigh.

Below 1.4270, would target 1.4185 en route to 1.4020/15.

Todays trade: Long 1.4430. Leave stops below 1.4305. Cover on ralliesto 1.4690.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Downtrend eroded, target 1.4694/1.4704.

Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.5000/1.5145 region.Targets 1.3748/13 (2010-2011 uptrend and 55 week ma), then 1.20.

Support

1.43111.4270*1.4187*1.40151.3968*

Reason

55 day maFiboMinor FiboLow 18 JulyMa trou h

Resistance

1.4520/371.4580**1.46471.4696**1.4704**

Reason

Early July high

Recent high78.6% Fibo

EUR/USD accelerated uptrend eroded

Accelerated uptrendbeing eroded

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USD/CHF continues to sit on .8000

Daily USD/CHF ChartTodays outlook: Weekly outlook:

Current Price: 0.8020

Comment: USD/CHF no change the market continues to sit on the.8000 support area (psychological support). We have an additionalsupport line cutting in at .7958, which connects the lows since March and

ideally we would like to see a rebound from here today. Initial resistanceis found at the near term resistance line at .8164 ahead of .8276, theJune low and the July 6 th .8364 low.

Below .7958, the major support is not encountered until 0.7450, the 33year support line (connects lows from 1978). The base of the 2011channel cuts in at .7750. We also have a point & Figure target of 0.77.

Todays trade: Long .8018 stops below .7965. Cover .8200

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Probing the .8000/.7975 support

Medium term (1-3 months): Look for signs of stabilisation around the.80 mark.

Support

.8000/.7997**

.7958

.7965

.7750/40

.7439

Reason

LowSupport lineTDsupportChannelSL

Resistance

.8137

.8276/79**

.8327*

.8364

.8356**

Reason

Resistance lineJune lowEarly June low6 th July lowDowntrend

Downtrend at.8356

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GBP/USD accelerated uptrend eroded, allow for slippage to 1.6260.

Daily GBP/USD ChartTodays outlook: Weekly outlook:


Comment: GBP/USD has eroded its accelerated uptrend, and we wouldallow for some near term consolidation and slippage back to 1.6260, theend of June high and lows for end of July. While above here we maintain

scope for gains to 1.6540/47, the 78.6% retracement of the move downfrom the April peak and the May peak.

This is considered to be the last defense for the 1..6745/90 April peakand 200 week ma..

Below 1.6260 we would allow for a slide back to the 55 day ma at 1.6202 only below here does the chart picture turn more negative and re-focusattention on 1.6065.

Todays trade: Long 1.6265, raise stops to below 1.6260. Partially cover1.6525, looking to reverse longs on rallies to 1.6745/90 tight stops

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break of near term resistance targets 1.6395then 1.6745/90.

Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to slightly positive allow for retestof the 1.7050 pivot which is expected to provoke failiure.

Support

1.6260/651.6202*1.6165/301.60655*1.6000*

Reason

End July high55 dmaMinor Fibo200 dmaPs ch su ort

Resistance

1.64721.6540/47**1.6740/45**1.6768**1.6877*

Reason

7 June highJune highApril peak200 week maSe t. 2009 hi h

Support at 1.6265/60

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USD/JPY under pressure

Daily USD/JPY ChartTodays outlook: Weekly outlook:

Comment: USD/JPY has again inched lower and again, its new low hasnot been confirmed by the daily RSI and some caution is warranted. Wenote various Elliot wave counts on intraday and daily charts imply the

market is either at or close to a low. We have minor support ay 77.30/25and this is the last defence for the 76.25 low.

A negative bias remains. Minor resistance is found between the May andJune lows and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 79.57/88 and aroundthe psychological 80.00 mark and the market will need to regain this inorder to alleviate immediate downside pressure.

Todays trade: Longs stopped. Stand aside

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Is focused on support.

Medium term (1-3 month): Neutral. Must clear 4 year downtrend at82.75 for any recovery to be viable.

Support

77.57, 77.2976.25**75.00*73.9075.00

Reason

March lowPsych. support30 min P&F target

Resistance

79.57/88*80.00*80.7480.3681.14

Reason

May/Jun low&FibPsych. resistanceCloud55 dma.100 dma


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EUR/JPY negative bias below the 113.62/114.00 resistance.

Daily EUR/JPY ChartTodays outlook: Weekly outlook:

Comment: EUR/JPY has eroded its near term support line, and nearterm looks set to drift lower, following stubborn rejection at the113.62/114.00 resistance (200 day ma).

Key near term support is the 110.10/109.58 area, which represents the78.6% retracement and the recent low and we suspect that this will againhold. This is seen as the last defense for the January and March106.83/50 troughs.

We would need to see a close above 114.00 to alleviate immediatedownside risk and signal a recovery to the 116.11 3 month resistanceline.

Todays trade: Shorts from 112.85, covered 112.05.Resell 112.25,112.85, stops over 113.65. Cover 110.10.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Break down from range targets 110.10, then108.90.

Medium term (1-3 months): Based at 106.50/105.45.

Support

111.44110.66110.10**109.58108.90**

Reason

Low 18 th July78.6% FibonacciTuesdays lowMeasure tar et

Resistance

113.33113.40/50*113.62**114.00**114.92

Reason

55 week maMay & June lowsResist line200 dma50% retracement


Resistance line at113.62

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Daily EUR/GBP ChartTodays outlook: Weekly outlook:

Current Price: .8784

EUR/GBP stuck at the 38.2% Fibo retracement at .8850

Comment: EUR/GBP has failed to register a close above the 38.2%retracement resistance at .8850 (of the move down from the July peak)and again sold off. Further consolidation is likely but we suspect that last

weeks low at .8712/06, was an interim low and we look for furtherstabilisation here. We would allow for a move back towards .8977/.9000(mid June high).

Only below .8700 will re-engage the 200 day moving average at .8667and introduce potential to .8612 then .8533, the four year uptrend line.

Todays trade: Longs stopped, stand aside

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Attempting to stabilise above .8700.

Medium term (1-3 months): View has been neutralised.

Support

.8750

.8723**

.8712/06**

.8675*

.8666*

Reason

16 th June lowFibo + rec low12 th May low200 dma

Resistance

.8850

.8890/95

.8941**

.8977

.9042**

Reason

Minor fiboOct 2010 highJune highMa hi h

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Todays outlook: Weekly outlook:Current Price 1.1511

EUR/CHF on defensive, nearby support at 1.1475/50.

Daily EUR/CHF Chart

Comment: EUR/CHF is holding sideways to leave the outlookunchanged, very near term it is on the defensive but we look for recentlows at 1.1365/58 to hold. We should see the market find some support

at 1.1475/50 ahead of the 1.1365/58 recent low and Fibo extension. Thisis expected to hold.

It should be noted that we suspect the low is in place for now as themarket has recently reversed from a long term Fibo support at 1.1358and we look for this rebound to retest the 55 day ma and then reach1.1946/1.2000 as a minimum. Intraday rallies will find resistance at1.1700.

Todays trade: Attempt tiny longs 1.1475, 1.1450, stops below 1.1350.Cover 1.1800.

Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Should recover to downtrend.

Medium term (1-3 months): We suspect the market is basing at1.1364/58

Support

1.1475/501.14101.1365**1.13581.1290

Reason

Minor Fibo

LowFibo extension240 min P+F

Resistance

1.1700, 1.17701.1808**1.1946*1.20001.2053

Reason

June lowMid-June lowPsych. resistanceEarl June low

Previous low at 1.1808

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 28 July 2011

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes;

Tuesday: Bullion Weekly Technicals;

Wednesday: Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: technical contribution to the Emerging Markets Bi-Weekly;

Friday: Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.

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Explanation:

This technical analysis report is based primarily on Dow theory and is using bar and candlestick charts.

Support and resistance levels with no asterisk denote minor levels. One asterisk denotes an area of reasonable support or

resistance, two stars are for strong areas of support or resistance.Uptr = Uptrend, connecting 3 low points.

SL = Support line. Support lines have only 2 points of contact and are not as important as uptrends.

Dtr= Downtrend, connecting 3 high points.

RL = Resistance line. Resistance lines connect only 2 high points and are not as important as downtrends.

Fibo = Fibonacci retracement we use the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% levels.Fibox = Fibonacci extension we use the 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%, 138.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% levels.

Pivot point = an area on the chart which acts as both support and resistance.

St = Short term level (for example St Fibonacci retracement refers to the nearest highs and lows)

Lt = Long term level (for example Lt Fibonacci retracement refers to longer term highs and lows)

55 dma = 55 day (simple) moving average200 wma = 200 week (simple) moving average

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