z Date: 05/02/2019 z NCML Commodity Market Monitor · Maharashtra deficit rainfall has affected...
Transcript of z Date: 05/02/2019 z NCML Commodity Market Monitor · Maharashtra deficit rainfall has affected...
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
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⚫ • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed ⚫ • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
NCoMM
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton|Sugar|Soybean|RM Seed| Castor seed|Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress| Advance estimates |Kharif and rabiMSP
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Castor | RM Seed | Turmeric
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Castor seed prices in most of the spot markets of Gujarat and
Rajasthan remained range bound with slight firmness as domestic
demand from Industries such as lubricants, cosmetics, paints etc.,
improved slight at lower levels. Expected decline in production during
current season also helped the commodity but, as exports remained
on the lower side Castor prices could not found sufficient support to
trade on higher side.
• According to Gujarat based traders new crop arrivals has started, but
the pace is slow due to lower crop however supply is likely to gain
pace in coming days which will keep prices on the lower side.
• India's castor oil exports dropped by 23.9 per cent year-on-year to
40,317 tonnes in December, according to data from the Solvent
Extractors' Association of India (SEA).Exports of the industry oil also
slipped by 14.6 per cent from 47,264 tonnes in November.
• Subdued import demand from Beijing weighed on the overall
shipments from India. China accounts for around 70 percent of non-
edible oil exports from India.
• During April-December, India shipped out 431,238 tonnes of castor oil,
down from 530,256 tonnes exported a year ago. In 2017-18 (April-
March) India's total exports were pegged at 651,326 tonnes as against
556,778 tonnes in the previous year.
• Exports in the coming months are also seen falling following tepid
buying from other major buyers in the global market. Apart from
China, Japan, European countries and United States are prominent
buyers of Indian castor oil.
• All India Castor seed acreage in 2018 increased to 9.18 lakh hectares up
by 5.05 per cent from last year acreage of 8.74 lakh hectares and 25
per cent down by normal area of 10.51 lakh hectares.
• India's castor seed production is expected to fall to 1.20-1.25 million
tonnes in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) from 1.42 million tonnes produced in the
previous year, according to another official with the Solvent
Extractors' Association of India.The estimate is lower than the
government's projection of 1.52 million tonnes.
• According to the latest 2nd Advance estimates released by the Gujarat
Agriculture department Castor seed production in the state estimated
to decline by 30 per cent at 10.43 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.84
lakh tonnes in 2017-18 due to deficient rainfall received in major castor
growing belts during the 2018 monsoon.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
04-02-2019 28-01-2019 %Change
Deesa 5116 5092 0.47
Kadi 5215 5125 1.75
Dhansura 4920 4975 -1.10
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
New crop arrivals in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan
Bearish
Improved demand from Lubricants, paints, etc. Industries
Bullish
Buying to improve at lower levels as crop production expected to decline
Bullish
India's castor oil exports dropped by 23.9 per cent year-on-year to 40,317 tonnes in December
Bearish
Market sources expecting further decline in demand from China, Japan, European countries and US
Bearish
Castor production in Gujarat to decline at 10.43 lakh tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2800
3240
3680
4120
4560
5000
5440
5880
6320
6760
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p-1
6
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-16
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De
c-16
Jan
-17
Feb
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Mar
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Ap
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May
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Jun
-17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oct
-17
No
v-17
De
c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
May
-18
Jun
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Jul-1
8
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g-1
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Se
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Oct
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No
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De
c-18
Jan
-19
Castor - Deesa
CASTOR
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• RM seed prices remained range-bound as weather concerns in key
producing belts supported the market while weakness in other edible
oil such as soybean and palm markets weighed on sentiments.
• As per market sources, chances of further strong hailstorms and more
spells of rains can lead to disastrous situation for the crop which is
ready to be harvested in next couple of weeks.
• Nafed as on 25thJanuary 2019 has liquidated around 1217 metric tonnes
of mustard seed at various centers of Haryana,Rajasthan, Gujarat and
Madhya Pradesh. It had procured a total of 8.78 lakh tonnes of
mustard seed and now has 2.18 lakh tonnes of balance stocks are
available.
• As per market sources, Madhya Pradesh government may procure 2.7
million tonnes of chana, masoor and mustard harvested in 2018-19
Rabi season for three months beginning March 2019 at minimum
support prices.National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing
Federation of India, Food Corporation of India and Small Farmers'
Agribusiness Consortium will procure crops from 11th March 2019.
• According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Rapeseed & Mustard acreage
during current Rabi season as on 01st February 2019 increased by 3.19
per cent at 69.12 lakh hectares as compared to 66.98 lakh hectares
same period last year.
• Significant increase of 18.63 per cent in acreage was reported from
Rajasthan at 24.77 lakh hectares as against 20.88 lakh hectares same
period last year. The normal acreage is 26.96 lakh hectares.
• The Ministry of Agriculture has targeted Mustard production for 2018-
19 at 84.86 lakh metric tonnes. Mustard production estimate for 2017-
18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes which is 5.11 per cent higher than the
2016-17 production estimates of 79.17 lakh metric tonnes.
• As per SEA oil-meal export report, India's rapeseed meal export has
increased 77 per cent from 4.62 lakh tonnes to 8.21 lakh tonnes during
April-December 2018 with South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand
accounting for major imports.
• The export of oil-meals during December 2018, provisionally reported
at 303115 tonnes compared to 391431 tonnes in December 2017. The
overall export during April to December 2018 is reported at 2,387,028
tonnes compared to 2,246,989 tonnes during the same period of last
year i.e. up by 6 per cent.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
04-02-2019 28-01-2019 % Change
Jaipur 4163 4184 -0.50
Alwar 4173 4198 -0.59
Varanasi 4165 4170 -0.11
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Weak domestic and global edible oils complex
Bearish
Weather concerns in key mustard growing belts
Bullish
Release of stocks by NAFED and other agencies in spot markets
Bearish
Higher acreage of Rapeseed & Mustard crop as compared to last year
Bearish
Trade sources expecting lower crop production during 2018-19
Bullish
Rapeseed meal export has increased by 77 per centfrom 4.62 lakh tonnes to 8.21 lakh tonnes currently
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
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6
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c-16
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Feb
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Mar
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Ap
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May
…
Jun
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Jul-1
7
Au
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7
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p-1
7
Oct
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c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
…
Jun
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Jul-1
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Jul-1
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Oct
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-19
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
RM SEED
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Subdued demand in spot markets and the arrivals of new crops has
kept the Turmeric prices trend on lower side. Demand from North
India was reported sluggish due to prevailing cold wave conditions. As
far as export demand is concerned it has also remained subdued.
• According to trade sources, new crops arrived at spot markets were
reported with moisture content while quality is said to be average.
• New Turmeric supply started in the Nizamabad spot market on an
average 4000 – 5000 bags (1 bag = 70 Kg) from last week and higher
moisture content reported around 32 to 33 per cent. Currently, buyers
reported unresponsive due to moisture content turmeric new supply.
• Turmeric prices haveremained under pressure. Butin medium to long
term prices are likely to move on higher side due to crop damage
reports from key Turmeric producing regions of Maharashtra. In
Maharashtra deficit rainfall has affected Turmeric crop.
• As per market sources, Turmeric production for 2019 is estimated at
532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT.
Turmeric production may go down further as Maharashtra standing
crop is atvery crucial stage.
• Turmeric acreage in Andhra Pradesh is reported at 18,737 hectares as
compared to 14,841 hectares last year, more than 100 per cent sowing
completed from season normal.
• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as
compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.
Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal
area reported 54,878 hectares.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in
2018-19 estimated at 11.49 lakh tonnes as against 11.33 lakh tonnes
estimated in 2017-18.
• According to Spice Board of India, Turmeric exports during 2017-18
stood at 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.16 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
Turmeric exports to Iran stood at 13,431 tonnes, U.A.E was 7,952
tonnes, Malaysia 6,562 tonnes, U.S.A 6,434 tonnes, Morocco with
6,220 tonnes and other countries 66,701 tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
04-02-2019 28-01-2019 % Change
Nizamabad 6696 6735 -0.57
Salem 6960 7095 -1.90
Namakkal 6950 6950 0.00
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued demand in most of the spot markets in South India
Bearish
New crop arrivals have started in most of the markets
Bearish
Higher Turmeric crop acreage during current season as compared to last year
Bearish
Trade sources estimating lower crop production on all India level
Bullish
Decline in Turmeric exports as against last year
Bearish
Buying at lower levels to improve expecting lower crop production in Maharashtra
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
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Jul-1
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ec-
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ep
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No
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c-17
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Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
TURMERIC
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Agri Ministry budget hiked by
nearly 64pc to Rs 129585-cr for
2019-20
• Dairy industry hails Budget 2019,
says measures would increase
farmers' income
• Punjab offers freight subsidy to
potato growers • India’s share in global GDP rose
to 3.3 per cent in 2017: President
Ram Nath Kovind
• Collaborating to innovate for
India’s agriculture research: ICAR
– ICRISAT finalize 5-year action
plan
• Horticulture production to hit
record 315 MT this year
• Government offers 90% subsidy
for community farming
To purchase the India Commodity
Year Book 2019, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2018-19&
previous years’ estimates: Fourth
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
Wheat 1735 1840
Barley 1410 1440
Gram 4400 4620
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475
Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200
Safflower 4100 4945
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
04-Feb-19 21-Jan-19 05-Jan-19 05-Feb-18
Soybean 3875 3858 3491 3607
RM seed 4163 4138 4107 4025
Turmeric 6696 6836 7004 7375
Cotton 11974 12092 12176 11318
Chilli 8500 9000 9000 9000
Jeera 16969 18285 18391 19661
Castor 5116 5200 5219 4277
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
All India Weather status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 24th Jan 2019 to 30th Jan 2019
• Arunachal Pradesh And Assam States received deficit rainfall
• Bihar, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Meghalaya states received the excess rainfall.
• Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh'
Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala states received the large deficit rainfall
• Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka states received the
large excess rainfall
• Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha states received the normal rainfall
• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura, Gujarat and Goa
During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 3 % over the country as a whole .
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st Jan 2019 to 04th Feb 2019.
• Nagaland, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka states received the deficit rainfall
• Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir And Chhattisgarh states received the excess rainfall
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar,
Chandigarh (Ut), Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received large deficit rainfall.
• Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states received the large excess rainfall
• Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat states received the normal rainfall
• No rainfall is observed in the states of Tripura and Goa states.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01 January to 4th February 2019 was above LPA by 8%
over the country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
• Above normal precipitation likely over the western Himalayan region, normal to above normal over the northern plains and some parts of
northeast India and southern parts of peninsular India. Normal rainfall likely over the rest of India
• Minimum temperatures in general are likely to be below normal over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and interior Maharashtra and
near normal over northern plains. They are likely to continue to be above normal over western Himalayan region and southern parts of
peninsular India
All India Reservoir Status: as on 31th January 2019
Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the
country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic
Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76
reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation
potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 31st
January, 2019 has been 72.07 BCM as against 70.36 BCM on
31.01.2018 (last year) and 76.08 BCM of normal (average of the
last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 102% of last
year’s storage and nearly 95% of average of last 10 year’s
storage.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Impact of weather on major crops
Crop Normal Acreage
Acreage 2018-19
Current crop condition
Wheat 306.29 299.34
Major wheat growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. Sowing is done in entire state .Crop is in tilering to heading stage. Wheat crop is struggling in partial irrigated area while it is in normal condition in rest of India. Overall crop condition is normal.
Rapeseed & Mustard
61.25 69.12
Major rapeseed growing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. Crop sowing is completed and is currently in flowering to grain filling/ maturity stage. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Further, moisture in the soil is decreasing continuously in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Overall crop condition is normal.
Chickpea 89.45 96.35
Major gram sowing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gram sowing is completed, and crop is currently in pod formation stage .Incidence of disease and insect has been observed in some regions like Maharashtra (affected by damping off), Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan (affected by frost). Crop is currently struggling in rain-fed area because of very limited rainfall in the region till second week of January; however, rainfall received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield. Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal.
Lentil 13.94 17.19
Major lentil crop sowing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (Buldelkhand region). Crop sowing is completed, and crop is currently in flowering stage. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field till date. Crop acreage is almost same in comparison to last year. Crop is currently struggling in some parts of rain-fed area because of very limited rainfall till second week of January; however, rainfall received in third week of January may be very beneficial for crop health & yield. Overall current crop condition is normal.
*Rainfall received in third week of January and onwards may be very beneficial for crop health &
yield.
Acreage in lacs Hectares on date 01st February’ 2019
Source: Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
yy
link ANSWERS & LUCKY
WINNER OF PREVIOUS
WEEK’S QUIZ
NCoMMQUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
1. As per the report on which commodity the Government has extended restrictions on its
import till March 2019? Peas
2. By how much the all India progressive procurement of Rice has increased during 2018-19?
15 per cent
2.23 lakh tonnes
3. According to the Gujarat government second revised estimates 2018-19 how much is Jeera production estimated?
S.No Full Name Department Location
1 Sarita Mittal SCM Gurgaon
2 Rakesh Kumar S&P Patna
3 Pawan Joshi Mktyard Karnal, Haryana
4 Ankur Srivastava Mktyard Gurgaon
5 Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurgaon
6 Ajendra Singh Chauhan Mktyard Gurgaon
7 Akshay Vivek Mktyard Gurgaon
8 Pratima Goswami Mktyard Gurgaon
9 Rajaram Bhilare S&P Mumbai
10 Twinkle Gupta S&P Gurgaon
11 Somarouthu Narendra CWIG Hyderabad
12 PRiti Gharat SCM Mumbai
13 Om Singh CM Bikaner
14 Nagina Gowda S&P Mumbai
15 yogesh sanwarmal sharma IT Kanjurmarg (Mumbai)
16 Vivekanand Gurjar T&C Jaipur
17 munesh kumar sharma S&P Gurgaon
18 ANJALI CM GURUGRAM
19 Lalji singh yadav CM Saman
20 Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad
21 vanisha vij HR&Admin Delhi
LUCKY WINNER!
Vivekanand Gurjar T&C Jaipur
CONGRATULATIONS!
Date: 05/02/2019 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive: TCIG [email protected]
Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG [email protected]
Ratnapriya Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
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