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Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl

Vice President Research

[email protected]

Your University of the Future - Executing on the Higher Education Business Model Scenarios

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From "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G00251104)

Mashware

Quantum Computing

Education Tablet

Open Microcredentials

Campus App Store

Affective Computing

SIS International Data Interoperability Standards

BPO

Open-Source SIS

Student Retention CRM

Citizen Developers

Learning Stack

Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification

MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aaS COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy

Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Midrange Handsets Open-Source Financials

EA Frameworks Web-Based

Office Productivity Suites

ITIL Social Learning Platform for Education

Cloud HPC/CaaS Mobile-Learning

Smartphones Open-Source Middleware

Suites E-Textbook

Cloud Email for Staff and Faculty Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds

Emergency/Mass Notification Services Hosted Virtual Desktops Open-Source Learning Repositories

SaaS Administration Applications

Enterprise Architecture IT Infrastructure Utility

Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software

Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools

802.11n

Tablets

Game Consoles as Media Hubs

E-Book Readers

Self-Publishing

Mashups

Unified Communications and Collaboration

© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox

Innovation Trigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

Mashware

Quantum Computing

Education Tablet


Campus App Store

Affective Computing


BPO

Open-Source SIS


Citizen Developers

Learning Stack









Suites E-Textbook







802.11n Unified Communications and

Collaboration

Tablets


E-Book Readers

Self-Publishing

Mashups

Years to mainstream adoption:

More than 10 years

Obsolete before plateau

Less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years

Off the Hype Cycle: e-portfolio, User-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open-Source Portals, Social Media in Education

From, "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G00251104)

As of July 2013


Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox

Innovation Trigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

Mashware

Quantum Computing

Education Tablet


Campus App Store

Affective Computing


BPO

Open-Source SIS


Citizen Developers

Learning Stack









Suites E-Textbook







802.11n Unified Communications and

Collaboration

Tablets


E-Book Readers

Self-Publishing

Mashups

The Capabilities:

Digitalization Exostructure

From "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013," 25 July 2013 (G00251104)

Off the Hype Cycle: E-portfolio, User-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open-source Portals, Social Media in Education

As of July 2013


Services

Tools

Continuous

OpenClass

Core

HE

LiveMocha

Moodle

Corporate U

MS Certification

2U

Context Content

Hired

Hand

DIY K-12

FE

Fronter

Statistics.com

X plugjam

You Are

Here

OpenCourseWare/

Merlot Banner

MyFit

McGraw-Hill

Saf-T-Net

NCAT

Dell "cloud"

International

Baccalaureate Tegrity Open Tapestry

Starfish

Retention

Kno

Workday

The Expanding Education Ecosystem: A World of Choice (G00228925)

Perceptis

Moodlerooms

Blackboard

Adobe Connect

Facebook/

Social

Carnegie

Learning

Apollo G

Knewton

Udacity

Connections Education

Pearson

Embanet

Compass

The Expanding Education Ecosystem

Increasing Options and Competition!

Udemy

Kroton StraighterLine

Georgia

Tech

AcademicPub Civitas

Texas

A&M

Cool Vendors in Education, 2013 (G00250361)

Importance of Exostructure

OERu

Intel

Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Education

Ecosystem Requires Going Beyond Mere Infrastructure to Exostructure (G00251105)

Khan

Academy

College

Board

SMOWL


THE KEY ISSUE

f(x y z )

€=People Process

Start Action 1 Decision Action 2 ResultStart Action 1 Decision Action 2 Result

Technologyf(x y z )

€=PeoplePeople Process


Process


TechnologyTechnology

n

What investments

in information technology

will be strategic

in positioning the institution for

long-term success

in fulfilling its mission?


Higher Education "Business Model" Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling

Perceived Quality

Everybody's U

Scale

Collectively Defined

Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive

All About U Me, Not U

Only Us U

Oxford

Community

College

Wharton

U.K. Open

University Source: "Four 'Business Model' Scenarios for Higher Education: An Introduction to Strategic Planning Through Storytelling" (G00167364)


HE Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Monasteries to 'Monasteries'?

Perceived Quality

Everybody's U

Scale


Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive

All About U Me Not U

Only Us U

Brilliance for Market

Unique

Innovative

High Touch


Only Us U — The Extreme Characteristics

• Academic freedom

• Creative community

• Keepers of tradition

• Where matter matters

• Brick and mortar (?)

• Social bonding/belonging

• Everything that cannot be easily copied

Everybody's U

All About U

Me Not U

Only Us U

Here, it is more about the institution and its ability to support academic freedom than about you. You stay because the institution can give you a lot of resources in return for your skills and time.

The CRM Case:

Alumni “CRM”

CRM “Retention”

CRM “Enrollment” X X

Customer Relationship Management

CRM=

√


HE Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Guilds to Clubs

Everybody's U

Scale


Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive


Only Us U

Edge in Market

Privacy

Premium

Personal

Perceived Quality


Me Not U — The Extreme Characteristics

• Community values rule

• Tricks of the trade are learned here and nowhere else

• There is a clear sense of being on the inside (track)

• Network for life

• Source of competitive advantage for life

• Always available — the hub

Everybody's U

All About U

Me Not U

Only Us U

Here, it is about getting that extra advantage in fulfilling a dream and you have to be focused on "adding value" to the community's goal. You stay because you are on the inside and it looks good on your CV.

The CRM Case:

Alumni “CRM”

CRM “Retention”

CRM “Enrollment” X Social

CRM √ √ √


Everybody's U

Scale


Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive


Only Us U

Scale of Market

Scale

Cost-effective

Standardized

Perceived Quality

HE Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From National Knowledge Factories to a Global Learning Ecosystem


Everybody's U — The Extreme Characteristics

• Everything for everybody: The Giga University

• Catering for all pedagogical needs

• Under political pressure to cost-effectively cater to a larger (national) need for knowledge workers

• Program — just-in-case — focused education (One-pace-fits-all education)

• Volume matters

Everybody's U

All About U

Me Not U

Only Us U

Here, it is about the greater good of the society, and consensus dictates the road ahead. You stay as you know you are helping to empower a lot of people to realize their social and economic potential.

The CRM Case:

Alumni “CRM”

CRM “Retention”

CRM “Enrollment” √ √ OK...


HE Scenarios — Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Correspondence Courses to Brokerage U

Everybody's U

Scale


Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive


Only Us U

Speed to Market Consumerized

Flexible

Reach

Perceived Quality


All About U — The Extreme Characteristics

• Only mind over matter

• Very niched

• Opportunistic — economy of speed

• Making economy out of scale

• Brokerage University of just-right, just-in-time, any-pace education

• Individual reputation based

• Virally marketed

Everybody's U

All About U

Me Not U

Only Us U

Here, it is all about you, and you have extreme personal flexibility. But, you have to take full responsibility for the content of your own education, the course of your career and how to pay the bill each month.

Udemy ... Top 10 >1MUSD

The CRM Case:

Alumni “CRM”

CRM “Retention”

CRM “Enrollment”

Social CRM

Tutor Relationship Management X X X X √

Your U? From 20xx to 20xx

Perceived Quality

Everybody's U

Scale


Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive


Only Us U

A

You Are Here

Competitor

Challenger

You Want to be Here

B

Optional Plot:


Your U? From 2012 to 2022

Quality

Everybody's U

Scale


Inclusive

Personally Defined

Exclusive


Only Us U

A You Are

Here You Want to Be Here

B

B1 A

A

College y

MBA

B2

Research University x

Online z

Competitor

Challenger Optional Plot:

A Online


Recommended Gartner Research [email protected]

Visual Strategic Planning Using the Gartner Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Maps

Introducing Visual Strategic Planning Using Four Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Strategic Technology Maps

Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map — Only Us U Focuses on Brilliance for the Market

Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map — Me, Not U Looks to Edge in the Market

Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map — Everybody's U Leverages Scale of the Market

Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map — All About U Seeks Speed to Market

Toolkit: Workshop for Building a Strategic Technology Map to Support Your Future University

Predictions for the Higher Education 'Business Model' Landscape in 2025 and Beyond Will Help CIOs Plan Now

The Gartner Higher Education Business Model Scenarios: Digitalization Drives Disruptive Innovation and Changes the Balance


A Final Word

"Thus, the task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what

nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees."

— Arthur Schopenhauer, 1788 to 1860

"Leadership is the art of getting someone else to do something you want done

because he wants to do it. "

— Dwight D Eisenhower


The End

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