Yoshinori Hiroi Kyoto University, Japan hiroi.yoshinori.5u@kyoto...
Transcript of Yoshinori Hiroi Kyoto University, Japan hiroi.yoshinori.5u@kyoto...
Yoshinori Hiroi
Kyoto University, Japan
Outline Introduction: Conceptual Backgrounds for
Sustainable Welfare Society
1. Different Dimensions of Sustainability
2. Sustainable Welfare Society: International Comparisons
3. Evolution of the Idea of “Steady-state Economy” and Capitalism
4. Policies for Sustainable Welfare Society
5. Agenda for Realizing Sustainable Welfare Societies in Asia
“Sustainable Welfare Society”
a society where quality of life of individuals and distributional justice are realized in a sustainable manner over a long period of time under the finite natural resources and environments
Integration of ・Issues of Environment: regarding the total amount of wealth ・・・Sustainability ・Issues of Welfare: regarding the distribution of wealth ・・・Equality, Justice
Closely related with the concept of “Steady-state Economy”
Background
Welfare state models in the latter half of the 20th Century presupposed the continuous economic growth, and have been constructed on the assumption that economic growth and increasing income equality are mutually reinforcing.
But currently,
1) as most of the industrialized countries are experiencing chronical economic stagnations owing to the maturation of consumptions
2) more fundamentally, the finite nature of natural resources and environments at the global level are being recognized,
welfare state models combined with the continuous economic growth are put into question.
→necessity of introducing the concept of sustainability and environmental concerns in the discussions of welfare state and social policy
Particularly important in the Asian Context, where economic development, increase of energy consumption, institutionalization of social protection systems and demographic change take place very rapidly in a relatively short period of time.
Rapid Increase of World Population
billion
(source) Donella Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, 2004
Energy Consumption in Asia (1965-2015)
Welfare, Environment and Economy
Issues or Function
Objective
Welfare Distribution of Wealth
Equality, Justice
Environment Total Volume of Wealth
Sustainability
Economy Production of Wealth
Efficiency
Sustainability as a Key Concept
Central concepts in the discourse of Environmental policies since 1980s.
Ex. Proposal of the concept of “Sustainable Development” in “Brundtland report” Our Common Future (1987) by UN Commission
But this concept has broad and different dimensions and should be extended to a broader context including the social policy arena.
Various Dimensions of Sustainability(1) 1) Environmental sustainability under the
conditions of finite natural resources
2) Financial or institutional sustainability of social protection systems
3) Demographic and Inter-Generational Sustainability in the times of aging population and population decrease
Various Dimensions of Sustainability(2)
4) Sustainability of Work or Employment in the age of innovation (ex. human work replaced by AI etc)
5) Sustainability of Local community and Economy (or geographical sustainability)
Current Situations of Japan from the Perspective of Sustainability
Decrease of Food-Sufficiency Ratio in Japan and International Comparison
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(Source) adapted from Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery, Japan
USA
Germany
France
Netherland
UK
Japan
Government Debts in Accumulation (as against GDP): International Comparison
Japan
Italy
USA
France
Germany
UK
Long-term trends of the Japanese population
(Unit: 10,000 )
(Year)
Peaked in December
2004
127,840,000
Aging rate: 19.6%
2030
115,220,000
Aging rate: 31.8%
2050
95,150,000
Aging rate: 39.6%
2100 (Mid-end
forecast)
47,710,000
Aging rate: 40.6%
2100 (High-end
forecast)
64,070,000
2100 (Low-end
forecast)
37,700,000
Meiji
Restoration
(1868)
33,300,000
Kyoho
Reforms
(1716-1745)
31,280,000
Establishment
of Tokugawa
Shogunate
(1603)
12,270,000
Establishment
of Kamakura
Shogunate
(1192)
7,570,000
Establishment
of Muromachi
Shogunate
(1338)
8,180,000
End of
Second
World War
(1945)
71,990,000
(2000)
126,930,000
Sources: Graph prepared by the National and Regional Planning Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, based on Population Census Report, Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications; Annual Report of Population Estimates, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Interpolation Estimated Population on Population Census Results in 2000 and 2005, Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications; Population Projections for Japan (Estimated in December 2006), National Institute of Population and Social Security Research; and Long-term Chronological
Population Distribution in Japan in 1974, National Land Agency
Trends of the Ratio of People receiving Public Assistance in Japan (%)
(Source) Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Typical Local Cities in Japan ・・・Hollowing Out of Central Areas
Current Situations of Japan from the Perspective of Sustainability(1)
Critical conditions in all the five dimensions of sustainability
1)Environmental sustainability
2)Financial or institutional sustainability
3)Demographic and Inter-Generational Sustainability
4)Sustainability of Work or Employment
5)Sustainability of Local community and Economy
Current Situations of Japan from the Perspective of Sustainability(2)
Current administration →Strong “Pro-growth” policy orientations
background ・・・lingering memories of “success story” in the high economic growth period, and the cling to the growth model in the times of industrialization
These orientations are likely to lead to disastrous situations, and shifts of policy paradigms from “growth” to “sustainability” are necessary.
Sustainable Welfare Society Index
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Holland
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
USA
0.2
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.3
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.5
53 63 73 83
Gin
i Co
effic
ien
t
EPI (Environmental Performance Index)
Small Income Gaps with
High Environmental
Performance (Germany,
Scandinavia, etc.)
Source: Prepared by Hiroi Note: Gini coefficient is for 2011 (OECD data). EPI stands for Environmental
Performance Index, which was established by the Yale Center for Environmental
Law and Policy, to quantify and numerically mark environmental performance of
state policies.
Large Income Gaps with Low
Environmental Performance
(USA, Japan, etc.)
Why Welfare performance and Environmental performance are correlated to some extent?
In a society where the consensus for equality or income redistribution is low, the only policy measure for poverty reductions is economic growth, and thus environmental concerns are left behind and “pro-growth” policy orientations become strong.
Public value or consciousness of solidarity or cooperation, in other words, elements regarding social capital may serve as a basis both for welfare and environment.
Sustainable Welfare Society Index
in Asian Countries: Unclear Relationships
between Welfare and Environment?
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Gin
i C
oe
ffic
ien
t
EPI
Mongolia
Nepal
Cambodia
(source)Gini coefficient: Human Development Report 2016
EPI: 2016 data
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
China
Indonesia
Bhutan
Vietnam Laos
India
Economic Development and Income Inequality : Inverted U-shaped Curve?
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Gin
i C
oe
ffic
ien
t
GNI per capita
グラフ タイトル
Malaysia
Thailand
China
Mongolia
Philippines
Cambodia
Nepal
(source)adapted from Human Development Report 2016. GNI per capita=2011PPP$
Japan
Economic Development and EPI(Environmental performance Index)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Korea
Malaysia Thailand
China
Philippines
Myanmar
Nepal
Bhutan
GNI per capita
EP
I
(source)GNI per capita: Human Development Report 2016, EPI 2016 data
Japan
Sustainable Welfare Society from a broader perspective
Is economy without GDP growth possible? Is it compatible with capitalism?
Historical evolution of the idea of “steady-state economy”
1st Stage: JS Mill’s “Stationary State”(1948)
Economy will reach “Stationary State” because of the finite nature of land
Positive evaluation of the “Stationary State”
Mill’s concept was forgotten as the economy entered into the age of industrialization and UK and other capitalist nations embarked on the colonial management, utilizing the natural resources of the colonies
2nd Stage: “Limits to Growth” by the Club of Rome (1972) ・・・Environmental limitations of Industrialization
3rd stage: Recent discussion of post-growth (or decroissant) , alternative measurement of GDP, and GNH etc.
Three Stages of “Steady-state Economy” Discussions 1st stage: JS Mill’s “Stationary State”(1948) ・・・maturation of merchant economy, and the transition to the industrialization
2nd stage: “Limits to Growth” by the Club of Rome (1972) ・・・maturation of industrialization, and the transition to the information/monetary economy and globalization
3rd stage: recent discussion of post-growth (or
decroissant) , alternative measurement of GDP, and GNH etc.
・・・maturation of information/monetary economy and globalization
Evolution of Capitalism and Steady-state Economy
Scale of Economy
Merchant
Economy
Industrialization
Information/Monetary
economy
Steady-state Economy
or Sustainable Welfare
Society?
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd and Ultimate
Stage
“Long-term Recession” after the Recovery from the Leeman Shock average growth rate of the industrialized countries:1.6%(2011-15)
先進国
Relations between Life Satisfaction and
GDP per capita
Source: Frey (2005)
Well-
bein
g
Number of samples:
80,556 persons
Per capita real average income based on purchasing power parity (Referenced to US
dollar in 1995) Sources: World Values Survey 1990-1993/1995-1997 (ICPSR 2790) and World
Development. Report 1997
Relations between life satisfaction and income (1990s) Figure
1-4
GNH, GAH, GKH・・・ many local governments in Japan are coming up with their own well-being measurements and local social policy developments
Two Policy Directions for Sustainable Welfare Societies
(1) from Redistribution to “Pre-distribution”
・・・Earlier Intervention at each stage of the lifecourse
(J.Robertson,”EcoTaxation in a Green Society”,
Fitzpatrick and Cahill(2002)))
(2) Socio-economic system building up from the local community
Evolution of Capitalism and its Revision: redistribution to earlier interventions
Poor Law 1601 Social Insurance 1880s
Keynesian Policy
for Employment
Merchant
Economy
Industrial
Revolution World Economic
Crisis
?
Leeman
Shock etc
Examples of “Pre-distribution”
1) Emphasis on the social policy at the early stage of the lifecourse
2) basic income as an ultimate policy
3) redistribution or socialization of assets or “stock” (housing, land, financial assets)
Social Protection Spending for the Early Stage of the Lifecourse (as against GDP, 2011): International Comparison
(Source) adapted from OECD, Social Expenditure Database
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Other
Housing
Unemployment
Active Labor Policy
Family
Disability
Trends of Gini Coefficient of Income, Financial Assets and Land in Japan
(Source)Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications:National Survey of
Consumptions 2014
Income
Financial
Assets
Land
and
Housing
Socio-economic system building up from the local community/economy
Increase of the self-sufficiency of food, renewable energy and social care and the realization of the autonomous local economies
→contributing to the sustainable employment at the local level and social inclusion
Renewable Energy and “Sustainable Zone”
Energy Sufficiency Ratio of Japan is only 4% at the national level, but at local level there are 21prefectures (among total 47 prefectures ) whose Energy Sufficiency Ratio are over 10% and these figures are increasing (“Sustainable Zone” study by Hidefumi Kurasaka, Chiba University, 2015 version)
1)Oita Prefecture(30.1%)
2) Akita Prefecture(21.8%)
3) Toyama Prefecture(18.8%)
4) Nagano Prefecture(18.2%)
5) Kagoshima Prefecture(17.8%)
Significance of Re-connecting Market Economy to Community and Environment
Environment
(Nature)
Community
Market Economy
Departure
(Capitalism)
Re-connecting
Market
Economy to
Community
and
Environment
Corresponding to the Concept of “Sustainable Welfare Society”
Sustainable Welfare Society as a social model and its relationship with Public Philosophy
Convergence of Capitalism, Socialism and Ecology
Integrations of Liberalism and Communitarianism in the discourse of public philosophy
Perspectives for Sustainable
Welfare Societies in Asia (1)
Rapid economic growth and Increase of Energy consumptions and environmental burdens, together with rapid social transformations in Asian countries
→endangering Environmental and Financial sustainability
On the other hand, Lower fertility rate in many of the east Asian countries are eroding Demographic and Intergenerational sustainability
Trends of Fertility Rates in some East-Asian Countries
Thailand
Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Singapore
Japan
“Global Aging” and Asia as its one of the
Centers
中国,
29%
他のアジ
ア, 29%
他の発
展途上
国, 28%
OECD
加盟国
(日本を
含む),
14%
The regional ratio of the increase of the aged citizens (aged
60 years or over) in the world towadrs 2030
(source) World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis, 1994
China
29%
Other Asian
countries
29%
OECD countries
(including
Japan)
14%
Other developing
countries
28%
Perspectives for Sustainable Welfare Societies in Asia (2) Common in the very rapid shift from the growth-
oriented economy to lower economic growth and population decrease as well as aging
A lot of difficult agenda, as in the case of Japan, but (hopefully) Asian countries may have traditional value orientations towards “sustainability.”
Transformation of the policy paradigms from Growth-oriented social model to Sustainable Welfare Society model is most significant and fundamental.
Towards Sustainable Asia
When we look at the environmental sustainability, “Our Common Futures” for Asia seem to become more visible than social policies at the national level.
Visions of “Sustainable Welfare Society” and policy integrations from local to national, regional to global
levers are to be explored and pursued, and research collaborations integrating social and environmental policies should be promoted.