1

APKIT, Committee on IT Development Monitoring

Year 2016

Forrester, Gartner and IDC IT predictions

HR shifts

Natalia Berdyeva

Moscow,

December 2015

2

APKIT & our Committee in brief

• APKIT, Information & Computer Technologies Industry

Association. It is a noncommercial association in the

Russian IT Industry

• Members include leading Russian and international

IT players who control up to 70% of the

Russia IT market

• The Association - through negotiations with business

and public authorities - contributes to the development

of IT market in Russia

• 11 Committees in the Association:

1. Committee on Protection of Copyright and Intellectual

Property

2. Committee on Education

3. Committee on IT development monitoring (IBM)

4. Committee for Property Protection

5. Committee on Regional Policy

6. Committee on Software Development and Export

7. Committee on Information Security

8. HR Club

9. Committee on Legislation

10. Council on professional qualifications in IT

11. Committee on IT development and localization

Apkit http://www.apkit.ru/

The Committee http://www.apkit.ru/committees/monitoring/

The Committee on FB https://www.facebook.com/apkititmonitoring

Nikolai Komlev -

Executive Director,

APKIT

Committee on IT development monitoring

Kirill Korniliev,

Head of the

Committee,

Vice President at

IBM CEE

Natalia Berdyeva,

Coordinator of the

Committee,

Europe Market

Development

Advisor at IBM

3

Objectives of this presentation

• Present what leading analysts say on IT trends in 2016

• Outline some key shifts in HR

4

Executive Summary on top shifts in IT and HR in 2016

• Digital becomes mainstream

• New business models (Uber-ization) rock*

• Personal contact with a Client is matter of survival

• Postapp world with intelligent agents evolves in the next 5 years

• HR refocuses, from competition btw staff to cooperation

*Refer to IBM C-Suite Study 2015, http://www-935.ibm.com/services/c-suite/study/ , (in RUS) http://www-03.ibm.com/press/ru/ru/pressrelease/48063.wss

5

Content

IT trends 2016 as announced by Forrester, IDC, Gartner

HR shifts, my earlier advisory and market facts we saw

6

Analysts key predictions for 2016: digital is mainstream

IDC, “Transform Or Die” as digital transformation scales up30% of today’s tech suppliers will not exist as we know them today, having been acquired or failed

1/3 of the top 20 companies in every industry will be “disrupted” over the next 3 years, meaning their revenue, profits and market position will deteriorate — not that they will go out of business

Forrester, “Lead The Customer-Obsessed Transformation” Customers expect consistent and high-value in-person and digital experiences. The risks in today's customer-led market have shifted from responding too early to responding too late

Gartner, “autonomous software agents” to play a crucial role in the economy and everyday life

The future will belong to the companies that can create the most effective autonomous and smart software solutions

Source: Digital Transformation Going Mainstream in 2016, IDC Predicts by Steve Lohr Nov, 2015, http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/in-2016-digital-transformation-goes-mainstream-idc-predicts/?_r=0 ; Forrester Predictions 2016 https://www.forrester.com/Forrester-Predictions/-/E-MPL161 ;

7Source: Transform Or Die: IDC's Top Technology Predictions For 2016 by Gill Press, Nov 2015, http://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2015/11/10/transform-or-die-idcs-top-technology-predictions-for-2016/

IDC, “Transform Or Die”. Top 10 predictions for 2016

1. By the end of 2017, two-thirds of the CEOs of global 2000 enterprises will

have digital transformation at the center of their corporate strategy

2. By 2017, over 50% of organizations’ IT spending will be for third platform

technologies (cloud, mobile, social business and big-data analytics),

solutions, and services, rising to over 60% by 2020

3. By 2018, at least half of IT spending will be cloud-based, reaching 60% of

all IT infrastructure and 60-70% of all software, services, and technology

spending by 2020

4. By 2018, enterprises pursuing digital transformation strategies will more

than double software development capabilities; two-thirds of their coders

will focus on strategic digital transformation apps and services

5. By 2018, enterprises with digital transformation strategies will expand

external data sources by at least 3- to 5-fold and delivery of data to the

market by 100-fold or more

6. By 2018, there will be 22 billion internet of things devices installed, driving

the development of over 200,000 new internet of things apps and

services

7. By 2018, over 50% of developer teams will embed cognitive services in

their apps (vs. 1 percent today), providing U.S. enterprises with over $60

billion annual savings by 2020

8. By 2018, over 50% of enterprises will create and/or partner with industry

cloud platforms to distribute their own innovations and source others’

9. By 2018, 80% of B2C and 60% of B2B enterprises will overhaul their

“digital front door” to support 1,000 to 10,000 times more customers and

customer touch points

10. By 2020, more than 30% of the IT vendors will not exist as we know

them today, requiring realignment of preferred vendor relationshipsNote: The size of the bubble indicates complexity/cost to address

8Source: Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2016, Oct 2015

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3143521

Gartner, “autonomous software agents”. Top 10 strategic technology trends for 2016

The Digital Mesh

1. The Device Mesh. Greater interaction between devices themselves

2. Ambient User Experience. App design is focused on providing an

experience that exploits different devices, incl IoT sensors, common

objects such as automobiles, or even factories

3. 3D Printing Materials. 64% CAGR 2019. Rethinking of assembly line

and supply chain processes

Smart Machines

4. Information of Everything in the digital mesh produces/uses/transmits.

Advances in semantic tools

5. Advanced Machine Learning. Systems can autonomously learn to

perceive the world (deep neural nets, DNNs, technologies)

6. Autonomous Agents and Things. Postapp world with intelligent

agents. Instead of interacting with menus, forms and buttons on a

smartphone, the user speaks to an app, which is really an intelligent agent

The New IT Reality

7. Adaptive Security Architecture. Application self-protection, adaptive

security architecture leverages user and entity behavior analytics

8. Advanced System Architecture. Greater speeds, high-energy

efficiency, function more like human brains with graphics processing

units (GPUs) and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA)

9. Mesh App and Service Architecture. More loosely coupled integrative

approach, microservice architecture to deliver agile/flexible applications,

flexible/dynamic user experiences

10. Internet of Things Platforms. Emerging and dynamic IoT platforms to

make IOT possible. Yet standardization is difficult through 2018

9

Content

IT trends 2016 as announced by Forrester, IDC, Gartner

HR shifts, my earlier advisory and market facts we saw

10

Early 2015 I said – HR needs to change on how staff is assessed

To succeed organizations need to be UNIQUE

and think as a START UP

This requires Leaders (leaders ≠ managers) and

distributed authority system

Traditional motivation do not work. Comparing

employees btw themselves and selecting “the

best employee of the month/year” often

demotivates. Personalized assessment and

motivation – based on exact person skills and

development goals - is a need

“Work Life Flexibility” replaces “Work-Life”

balance,

Mobility is a great helper in management

Modern HR needs technologies

Source: Natalia Berdyeva on slideshare; Russian version http://www.slideshare.net/nataliaberdyeva/hr-trends-for-apkit-lanit-v11-rus-45214402 ; English version http://www.slideshare.net/nataliaberdyeva/hr-trends-and-advisory-march-update

11

And I am happy things do change in the market

Accenture will get rid of annual performance reviews and rankings. As of Sep 2015, Accenture will get rid of the annual performance review. It will implement a more fluid system, in which employees receive timely

feedback from their managers on an ongoing basis following assignments. Pierre Nanterme, Accenture CEO, told:

“We’re going to get rid of probably 90%of what we did in the past.”

“We’re going to evaluate you in your role, not vis à vis someone else who might work in Washington, who might work in Bangalore.

It’s irrelevant. It should be about you.”

“The art of leadership is not to spend your time measuring, evaluating. It’s all about selecting the person. And if you believe you selected the

right person, then you give that person the freedom, the authority, the delegation to innovate and to lead with some very simple measure.”

In March, the consulting and accounting giant Deloitte announced that it was piloting a new

program in which rankings would disappear and the evaluation process would unfold

incrementally throughout the year.

Microsoft did away with its rankings nearly two years ago, attracting particular

attention since it had long evangelized about the merits of its system that judged employees against each other.

Adobe, Gap and Medtronic have also transformed their

performance-review processSource: In big move, Accenture will get rid of annual performance reviews and rankings, By Lillian Cunningham July 21 2015,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2015/07/21/in-big-move-accenture-will-get-rid-of-annual-performance-reviews-and-rankings/

12

Still, lots to be done

• 6% of Fortune 500 companies have gotten rid of rankings (CEB research)

• The average manager spends more than 200 hours a year on activities

related to performance reviews — things like sitting in training sessions, filling out forms and delivering

evaluations to employees. When you add up those hours, plus the cost of the performance-management technology itself,

CEB estimates that a company of about 10,000 employees spends

roughly $35 million a year to conduct reviews

• CEB found that 95% of managers are dissatisfied with the way their

companies conduct performance reviews, and nearly 90% of HR leaders

say the process doesn’t even yield accurate information

13

Thank you

Наталья Бердыева / Natalia Berdyeva,

Coordinator, APKIT Committee on IT development monitoring, http://www.apkit.ru/committees/monitoring/

Europe Market Development Advisor, IBM

Cell: + 7 (985) 761 59 74,

Email: Natalia.Berdyeva@ru.ibm.com

LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/pub/natalia-berdyeva/6/970/35

14

Back UP

15Source: Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2016, Oct 2015

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3143521

Gartner, “autonomous software agents”. Top 10 strategic technology trends for 2016 (more details)

The Digital Mesh

1. The Device Mesh.

Today: devices connected to back-end systems, often operated in isolation from one another.

2016 and on: greater interaction between devices themselves

2. Ambient User Experience.

Today: mobile apps remains an important strategic focus for the ent.

2016 and on: the leading edge of app design is focused on providing an experience that exploits different

devices, incl IoT sensors, common objects such as automobiles, or even factories

3. 3D Printing Materials. 64% CAGR for enterprise 3D-printer shipments through 2019. These advances will

necessitate a rethinking of assembly line and supply chain processes

Smart Machines

4. Information of Everything in the digital mesh produces, uses and transmits information. Advances in

semantic tools will bring meaning to the often chaotic deluge of information

5. Advanced Machine Learning. move beyond classic computing and information management, in the direction

of systems that can autonomously learn to perceive the world. Leveraging deep neural nets (DNNs)

technologies

6. Autonomous Agents and Things.

Today: advances in physical smart machines (robots).

2016 and on: postapp world with intelligent agents delivering dynamic and contextual actions and

interfaces. Instead of interacting with menus, forms and buttons on a smartphone, the user speaks to an app,

which is really an intelligent agent

The New IT Reality

7. Adaptive Security Architecture.

Today: Rule-based security

2016 and on: application self-protection, adaptive security architecture leveraging user and entity behavior

analytics

8. Advanced System Architecture. Runs at greater speeds with high-energy efficiency, function more like

human brains with graphics processing units (GPUs) and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA)

9. Mesh App and Service Architecture.

Today: Monolithic, linear application designs (e.g., the three-tier architecture)

2016 and on: more loosely coupled integrative approach - the apps and services architecture,

microservice architecture to deliver agile, flexible applications, flexible and dynamic user experiences that

span the digital mesh.

10. Internet of Things Platforms. Emerging and dynamic IoT platforms to make IOT - integral part of the

digital mesh and ambient user experience - possible. Yet standardization is difficult through 2018

16

Skills

Skills - IDC

• So the job market for software engineers with cloud and web development skills should stay hot.

• The same is true for data scientists. In the digital economy, the IDC report said, “innovation = code + data.

Data is the grist of the innovation mill.”

Source: Digital Transformation Going Mainstream in 2016, IDC Predicts by Steve Lohr Nov, 2015, http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/in-2016-digital-transformation-goes-mainstream-idc-predicts/?_r=0