Y10TF

Meeting

July 31, 2019

Review of Results

Overview

• Scope

• Charter

• Case Results• Power Flow (PF)

• Production Cost Model (PCM)

• Draft Report

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Y10TF Scope

• Revised Scope was approved by Y10TF during meeting on June 14, 2019

• Primary focus of Y10TF is to evaluate the official ADS cases for stability, resource adequacy, and congestion.

• Results from PF and PCM will be made available to Y10TF, beginning with the draft ADS report

• Y10TF will also make recommendations to StS for additional study assessments that could be performed at the discretion of StS leadership and WECC management

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Y10TF Charter

• The charter reflects the governance and purpose of the task force and will be approved by the StS at their next meeting

• It was posted with the last StS meeting, but not approved due to not meeting quorum.

4

Anchor Data Set

• Common framework of transmission, load, and generation assumptions for Western Interconnection in year 2028

• Matching network topology for the PF and PCM cases

• PCM required other data to simulate an hourly dispatch for each hour of 2028• Hourly loads, hourly shapes for fixed generation• Cost data for dispatchable generation• Wheeling charges• Generation and Transmission constraints

5

ADS PF

• The final case was completed and posted in December 2017

• Case was evaluated using the standard tests for stability and contingency analysis

• Results will be documented and presented to Y10TF at a future meeting

6

ADS PCM

• The PCM case was derived from the following:• 2028 ADS PF case

• 2026 Common Case

• L&R Load Forecasts

• Other data

• The final version 2.2 case was posted on February 28, 2019

• An alternate version (phase 2) was recently completed

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Energy Results from PCM

8

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

AB AZ BC CA CO ID MT MX NE NM NV OR SD TX UT WA WY

Annual Generation (GWh) by State and Fuel - 2028 ADSv2.2

Other Thermal

Energy Storage

Other Renewable

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Coal

Comparison to 2026 Common Case

9

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Conventional Hydro

Energy Storage

Steam - Coal

Steam - Other

Nuclear

Combined Cycle

Combustion Turbine

IC

Other

DG/DR/EE

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Solar

Wind

Annual Generation by Category (GWh)

2026 Common Case v2.1 2028 ADSv2.2

PCM Generation Breakdown

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Conventional Hydro

24.1%

Energy Storage0.4%

Steam - Coal16.0%

Steam - Other

0.4%

Nuclear

4.7%

Combined Cycle24.7%

Combustion Turbine

4.5%

IC0.1%

Other

0.0%

DG/DR/EE6.0%

Biomass RPS1.7%

Geothermal2.7%

Small Hydro RPS0.2%

Solar

4.8%

Wind9.7%

Annual Generation Breakdown By Category - 2028 ADSv2.2

LMP Comparison (hourly sorted highest to lowest)

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-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Area Average LMP - Duration Plots

AESO AZPS BCHA BPAT CIPV CISC

LDWP NEVP NWMT PACW PAUT WACM

Annual Interchange

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AlbertaBritish Columbia

Basin

2,914 >>

Northwest

1,44

0 >>

<< 3

,232

Rocky Mtn

Southwest

5,07

9 >>

<< 1,468

<< 2

,797

CA/MX<< 38,568

<< 2

8,46

0

<< 6

20

<< 3

,518

<< 1,432

Regional Transfers* - Annual GWh ADS 2028 v2.2

*Regional Electric boundaries often vary from geographic borders

Path 66 Comparison

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-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Me

gaw

att

s

P66 COI Path Duration Plots

2012 2018 2026_PC1_2_0 2028_ADS_2_2

Net GWh: 23545 23549 12072 21040

N->S

2018 Path data was downloaded from BPA’s public website

Path 66 – Hourly Average

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Average Flow by Hour (MW) -P66 COI - Annual

2018 2028_ADS_2_2

Next Steps

• The ADS PF standard analysis will be re-done and results captured and documented.

• The Y10TF will review the ADS report and provide comments

• The Y10TF charter will be approved by StS at their next meeting

• The Y10TF will meet again in August or September to approve the final ADS report.

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Contact:

Chair

Shilpa Toppo

Liaisons

Dick Simons

Nick Hatton

Stan Holland

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