Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7...
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Transcript of Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7...
![Page 1: Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062721/56649f265503460f94c3cdff/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062721/56649f265503460f94c3cdff/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue AnalysisY-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis
1st Q ’09 -25.2 -27.92nd Q ’09 -24.5 -25.61st H ’09 -24.9 -26.7
July ’09 -20.3 -22.9
Y-T-D -24.3 -26.2
TVB Estimates GTSS
Spot TV % Change Base Total
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Automotive – Fctry, Dlr Assn & Dlrs -50.3Quick Serve Restaurants -12.8Furniture Stores -26.4Legal Services -3.4Wireless Telecom Providers +2.5Bundled Telecom Products/Svcs -21.0Hospitals, Clinics & Medical Centers-13.0Automobile Insurance -28.7Cable TV Providers & Systems +34.3Colleges & Universities +3.4
1st Half 2009 Category Analysis1st Half 2009 Category Analysis
Source: TNS Media Intelligence
% ChangeTop 10 Spot Categories2009/2008
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Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2009
Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2009
Chrysler-Cerberus 277,022 535,906 -48.3Ford 702,153 842,518 -16.7General Motors 886,194 1,365,644 -35.1
Subtotal Big 3 1,865,368 2,744,067 -32.0
BMW 88,998 124,820 -28.7Daimler 140,379 173,914 -19.3Honda 433,153 534,813 -19.0Hyundai/KIA 343,890 398,719 -13.8Isuzu 45,981 425 -89.2Mazda 114,625 176,283 -35.0Mitsubishi 23,562 72,596 -67.5Nissan 290,004 475,551 -39.0Subaru 50,875 63,958 -20.5Toyota 621,742 908,260 -31.5Volkswagen 215,601 197,361 9.2
Subtotal All Other 2,322,876 3,126,700 -25.7
Grand Total 4,188,244 5,870,766 -28.7
Overall $ Overall $ %
Parent Co. 1st H 2009 1st H 2008 Ch.
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2009Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2009
Chrysler-Cerberus 96,904 203,564 -52.4Ford 141,182 245,365 -42.5General Motors 68,122 229,237 -70.3
Subtotal Big 3 306,208 678,166 -54.8
BMW 16,255 26,950 -39.7Daimler 8,472 43,380 -80.5Honda 130,160 177,104 -26.5Hyundai/KIA 78,348 106,662 -26.5Isuzu 21 130 -83.8Mazda 11,307 55,285 -79.5Mitsubishi 2,427 18,373 -86.8Nissan 45,056 139,930 -67.8Subaru 8,459 10,860 -22.1Toyota 153,705 319,425 -51.9Volkswagen 47,320 48,743 -2.9
Subtotal All Other 501,530 946,843 -47.0
Grand Total 807,739 1,625,009 -50.3
1st H 2009 1st H 2008
Spot TV $ Spot TV $ %
Parent Co. ($000) ($000) Ch.
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
![Page 6: Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis 1st Q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd Q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st H ’09-24.9-26.7 July ’09-20.3-22.9 Y-T-D-24.3-26.2 TVB Estimates GTSS Spot.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062721/56649f265503460f94c3cdff/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2009
Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2009
Chrysler-Cerberus 35.0 37.7Ford 20.1 28.4General Motors 7.7 16.6
Subtotal Big 3 16.4 24.3
BMW 18.3 21.4Daimler 6.0 25.0Honda 30.0 32.6Hyundai/KIA 22.8 26.7Isuzu 45.9 19.9Mazda 9.9 31.3Mitsubishi 10.3 24.4Nissan 15.5 29.2Subaru 16.6 17.0Toyota 24.7 34.8Volkswagen 21.9 23.9
Subtotal All Other 21.6 30.3
Grand Total 19.3 27.7
1st H 2009 1st H 2008Spot TV Spot TV
Parent Co. % Share % Share
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Automotive Spot TV ShareAutomotive Spot TV Share
2002 30.42003 28.62004 28.62005 27.22006 31.12007 30.22008 28.8
1st H 2008 27.71st H 2009 19.3
AutomotiveAd Spending for Spot TV
Year of Share
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09
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Base Business AnalysisBase Business Analysis
Year % Change
2001 -15.62002 8.72003 0.62004 4.62005 -1.22006 2.42007 -1.82008 -11.1Thru July 2009 -24.3
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2008/2009 Spot TV $ Political Analysis2008/2009 Spot TV $ Political Analysis
1st Half 407.2 170.6 -236.6 -58.1
2nd Half 1,139.8714.4 -425.4 -37.3
Total 1,547.0885.0-662.0 -42.8
Source: CMAG
Dollars (M) 2008 2009(e) $ Change % Change
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Now The Year AheadNow The Year Ahead
What Can We Expect?
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Here’s What the Industry Analysts
Are Saying About 2010
Here’s What the Industry Analysts
Are Saying About 2010
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Participating FirmsParticipating Firms
BenchmarkBIA FinancialJackMyers Media Business ReportJP MorganMagnaSNLKaganVeronis Suhler StevensonWells Fargo Securities, LLC
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BenchmarkBenchmark
Local Spot +5.0Nat’l Spot +6.0Network +4.0Broadcast Online +7.0Broadcast Wireless na
(% Change) 2010
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BIA FinancialBIA Financial
Local Spot +3.0Nat’l Spot +2.0Network -7.0Nat’l Synd. -5.0Network Cable -1.0Local Cable -2.0Broadcast Online +20.0Broadcast Wireless +25.0
(% Change) 2010
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JackMyers Media Business Report JackMyers Media Business Report
Local Spot -2.0Nat’l Spot +0.5Network -8.0Syndication -2.0Network Cable -0.5Local Cable +12.0Broadcast Online +7.0Broadcast Wireless +12.0
(% Change) 2010
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JP MorganJP Morgan
Local Spot -2.0Nat’l Spot +1.0
(% Change) 2010
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MagnaMagna
Spot +13.3Network -0.9Syndication -8.5Network Cable +3.0Local Cable +18.7Broadcast Online +3.6Broadcast Wireless na
(% Change) 2010
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SNLKaganSNLKagan
Local Spot +5.0Nat’l Spot +6.0
(% Change) 2010
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Veronis Suhler StevensonVeronis Suhler Stevenson
Local Spot +3.3Nat’l Spot +6.6Network -4.6Syndication +4.5Network Cable +7.2Spot Cable +5.4Broadcast Online +7.8Broadcast Wireless +0.2
(% Change) 2010
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Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Securities, LLC
Local Spot +5.0Nat’l Spot +10.0Network -2.0Syndication +1.0Network Cable +3.0Local Cable +4.0Broadcast Online +5.0Broadcast Wireless na
(% Change) 2010
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Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Local Spot
Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Local Spot
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Local Spot Ranges% Change
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Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Nat’l Spot
Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Nat’l Spot
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
National Spot Ranges% Change
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Local Spot +2.5Nat’l Spot +4.6Network -3.1Syndication -2.0Network Cable +2.3Local Cable +7.6Broadcast Online +8.4Broadcast Wireless +12.4
Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts
Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts
(% Change) 2010
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TV Rep Surveyfor 2010
TV Rep Surveyfor 2010
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National Spot +15.8
National Online +11.3
National Wireless +20.0
9 Participants
TV Rep SurveyTV Rep Survey
(% Change) 2010
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2010 Rep Survey2010 Rep Survey
Mean+15.8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% Change
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And Now TVB’s Forecast
for 2010
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Market Influences – 2010 Market Influences – 2010
Confidence/Consumer Activity…
Jobs Real Estate Financial Markets/Credit
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Market Influences – 2010 Market Influences – 2010
Overall ad spending levels“Established”/”Emerging” balanceNetwork vs. Spot…geography vs. behavioralKey categories: Auto Political
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Market Influences – 2010 Market Influences – 2010
Technology and consumer adoption(DVR; online video; mobile web)IT and e-Biz applicationsSocial media marketing
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Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online
Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online
Source: Borrell Associates, Sept. 2009
Local Broadcast TV Interactive Revenues
($ in millions)
$75 $119$283
$447
$772
$1,050 $1,110
$1,310
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f
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TVB Forecast 2010TVB Forecast 2010
Local Spot +1 to +3Nat’l Spot +6 to +12Total Spot +3.6 to +6.1Station Websites +18.0Station Mobile +50.0
(% Change)
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Base Business ComparisonBase Business Comparison
2005 -1.2% 479 -5.5%
2006 2.4% 1,980 8.5%
2007 -1.8% 466 -7.4%
2008 -11.1% 1,547 -6.5%
2009(e) -15.8% 885 -18.1%
2010(e) 1.1% 1,500 4.9%
TotalBase POL $ (Base + Political)
Source: CMAG, TVB
(% Change)
At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
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2010% of Total
Local Station Revenue Model Local Station Revenue Model
(Dollars in millions)
Television Advertising – Primary Channel89.7
Digital Sub-Channels 0.9
Internet 4.4
Mobile 0.2
Retransmission Consent 4.8
Total Local Station Revenue 100.0
Source: 7 Broadcast Groups
2011% of Total
87.2
1.5
5.3
0.7
5.3
100.0
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Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations
Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations
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