Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies

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from fragility --> agility [email protected] @aspiringarc what if xtreme continuous change is the new ‘stable stateWARNING: work-in-progress finding antifragility strategies

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Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies from fragility --> agility what if extreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’

Transcript of Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies

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from fragility --> agility

[email protected] @aspiringarc

what if xtreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’

WARNING: work-in-progress

finding antifragility strategies

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Your job (later) today?

1. Find me 2.  Share a story 3. Challenge my

hypothesis

open innovation in action

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My hypothesis

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(what if we are wrong?)

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it was a sunny spring morning in Berlin

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& 250 other likeminds

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Rita Gunther McGrath, Professor Columbia Business School

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Rita made me question my assumptions? What if….

1.Industry isn’t stable & understandable 2. Advantages aren’t sustainable 3. Stability isn’t the stable state

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What if the new normal is about

TRANSIENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 1.  We surf short-lived waves (get in & get out) 2.  We compete in arenas (arena = market + segment

+ offer + location) 3.  We accept that change is the stable state (design

for change)

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If this was news to business people

Hmm!!

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then IT must be in the dark

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“denial is the most predictable of all human emotions”

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Agenda

I started to question the wisdom of some our actions

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(but before we go there)

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Steve Blank, UC Berkeley Business School

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Eric Ries, Entrepreneur in Residence Harvard Business School

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Steve & Eric made me question the way we approach change

1. Use scientific methods & measures 2. Use structured change processes 3. Move from rationalism -> to incrementalism

Lean Change Canvas – leanchange.org

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Brian Solis Altimeter Group

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Brian tells us that our customers are mutating

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Zero Moment Of Truth Ultimate Moment Of Truth

Brian also says experience is everything

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(what else is happening)

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let’s meet the 4 horsemen of the digital apocalypse

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and finally disruptors

debt-ridden fragile rigid

complex

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Oh wait I forgot the march of the milennials

47% by 2020

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a workforce of digital problem solvers

*MYOA

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What capabilities are essential for?

Are their patterns? Are their anti-patterns?

a question today…

(xcc)

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the stability dilemma

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In a turf war, someone always loses

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dynamic competition is ‘the new normal’

Industry A

Industry B

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Agenda

I started to question the wisdom of some our actions

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in the end it’s all about capability

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what is an antifragility architecture?

“wind extinguishes a candle

& energizes fire”

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.1189.pdf

V(X, fΛ, K,s`) OR

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in the end your architecture either enables or constrains your business model

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so what’s stopping you?

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well…you need to break out of the vicious merry-go-round

BAR

PPP

FF

EAM

TIM

SD

SRP

PM

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My hypothesis cont.

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1.  Change is the new stable state

2.  Build people; provide tools 3.  Assumptions aren’t knowledge

3 Takeaways

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“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don't bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”

― Richard Buckminster Fuller

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http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_f_kennedy.html#cWKIWigxSBrHvgq1.99

“Change is the law of life; those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”

JFK

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[email protected] @aspiringarc http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta www.iasa.ie | www.ivi.ie | www.ics.ie

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Research worlds are colliding