…our pale blue dot…

…places Earth in its cosmological context…

…astrobiology places life in a cosmological context…• “Astrobiology is the study of the origin,

evolution, distribution, and future of life in the universe.” (NASA)

• “The study of the living universe.” (NASA, 1996)

• “The study of life in space.” (Mix, 2009)• “Astrobiology… removes the distinction

between life on our planet and life elsewhere.” (Plaxco and Gross, 2006)

The Fermi Paradox The universe is billions of years old, friendly to life, and yet we find no evidence of highly advanced civilizations.

Where are the aliens?

…right here, on Earth!

The Great Filter

Multiple hominidAncestors and Predecessor Species

Multiple post-humanAnd sucessor species

The Present

The Distant Past The Far Future

Filters and Risks in Human History

What follows our terrestrial industrial-technological civilization?

?Extraterrestrialization places earth-originating civilization in cosmological

context.

Available technologies will influence the structure of the civilization that

transcends each gravitational threshold

• Slow first wave/fast second wave• Planetary threshold• Solar threshold• Galactic threshold• Multiverse threshold

• Fast first wave/slow second wave• Planetary threshold• Solar threshold• Galactic threshold• Multiverse threshold

Principles of Existential Risk Mitigation

Knowledge …transforms unknown uncertainties into

quantifiable risks that admit of calculation and mitigation…

Redundancy …means multiple self-sufficient centers for

Earth-originating intelligent life…

Autonomy …assures independence of each self-

sufficient center to seek its own strategies for survival…

Knowledge • Knightian Risk: prediction, risk, and

uncertainty• No risk is entirely free of uncertainty• No uncertainty lies beyond what is

possible in our universe • Risk is dynamic, and changes over time• Growth of knowledge moves the

boundary between risk and uncertainty, expanding risk at the expense of uncertainty.

Redundancy• Knowledge alone is not enough• Terrestrial single point failure • Multiple self-sufficient centers for

Earth-originating intelligent life • Distinct centers of earth-originating

life will be subject to distinct risks and distinct opportunities

• Distinct centers will be subject to distinct selection pressures

Autonomy • Knowledge of risks and redundant centers

of earth-originating life together are not enough

• Redundancy without diversity incurs the risk of homogeneity and monoculture

• Independence of each self-sufficient center to seek its own strategies of survival

• Social and technological experimentation• Realization of distinct forms of civilization• Autonomy may be more difficult to

achieve than we suppose

Moral Imperatives of Existential Risk Who would object to preventing human

extinction? Can we agree on what constitutes human

viability in the long term? There are vastly different conceptions of what

constitutes a viable civilization and of what constitutes the good for civilization

What is stagnation? Flawed realization? Ruination?

What exactly would constitute the “drastic failure of that life to realise its potential for desirable development”?

What is human potential? Does it include transhumanism?

Maximizing the probability of an ‘OK outcome’

• Different conceptions of human potential and desirable outcomes will issue in different ideals, aspirations, and actions

• If we can…• Continue to increase knowledge• Establish redundancy• Assure autonomy

• …there is reason to hope that existential catastrophe can be avoided and an OK outcome realized (maxipok rule)

the end…

…not