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Transcript of Xeventsin ”Game Changers Project” -hankkeen tuloksista yllätyksiin varautumisessa - Leena...
Systems analysis and
methodological development for
application in critical areas of
global change – major focus:
International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis
ENERGY
POPULATION
ATMOSPHERIC
POLLUTION &
MITIGATION
EVOLUTION & ECOLOGY
LAND USE & FORESTRY
DISASTER & RISK
Funded by 19 nations.
Game Changers ProjectPartnerit
www.iiasa.ac.at
Sitra, TEM, Huoltovarmuuskeskus, UPM Kymmene, Metso, Itella, Tekes, EtlajaSanomaSkotlanninhallitus
Game Changers ProjectTulokset
www.iiasa.ac.at
15.6.2011J. Casti, L. Ilmola, P. Klimek, O. Lehtonen, M. Lex, J. Liesio,
P. Rouvinen and U. Bilge
J. Honkatukia, P. Ormerod, A. Salo, S. Thurner, M. Tynkkynen, M. Wilenius
IIASA Exploratory Projects/ Xevents
Epävarmuus lisääntyy
Lehman Brothersin 9/2008 konkurssin todennaköisyys oli 0,00000000000000000000007
Huhuun perustuvien tappioiden syntyminen Espanjan vihannesviennille, tai
ranskalaisten maanviljelijöiden myynnin romahtaminen 90%,
ei saanut mitaan todennäköisyyttä.
Game Changer
Historia:megatrenditja
trendit
Game Changers 2/2010-3/2011
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Global economic system 2030?
Game Changers
Mitä kaikki tämä vaikuttaa pienen avoimen talouden kilpailukykyyn?
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Structural
scenarios
Ind. Ecosystem simulation
Life SciencePlanning for uncertainty
Food & drinkPlanning for uncertainty
DigitalizationTools for attribution theory
Forest industryPlanning for uncertainty
Com. technology Ind. ecosystem simulation
ESIMERKKEJÄTULOKSISTA
Yhteenveto
GlobaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaaStable& Turbulent World
Volatile World
Scen ario in brief
The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence.
The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior.
Prerequi sites
Fast climate change, resource scarcity severe, capitalism (financial system) fails in some areas
Global growth period 2010-2020, technology development fast (does not solve scarcityproblems)
Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong nations, strong ideologies, clash of cultures, political power strong, wars (trade/military conflicts)
Knowledge drives economy, quantum computing, zero energy sources , global financial system collapsed, globalization is over, no reliance on policy makers
Structure drivers
Strong IPR, public sector role strong, successful global operations track record
Open source development, climate change is mitigated,/failure, resource scarcity, no ideologies
Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030
Syklisyyskasvaa Tempo tiivistyy
Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasyklinmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoimintamalliin
Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa
Stable& Turbulent World
Volatile World
Scen ario in brief
The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence.
The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior.
Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030
Syklisyyskasvaa Tempo tiivistyy
Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasyklinmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoimintamalliin
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
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China Germany Scenario - Finland Sectors Export Performance in 2030
difference from baseline (bn USD)
Paper products
Motor vehicles, parts
Petroleum, coal products
Ferrous metals
Wood products
Chemical, rubber, plastic
Mineral products
Machinery and equipment
Electronic equipments
Top 20 kauppasimulaattori
Muttavaikutuksetsaattavatollavähäisiäkin
Kaikkeeneikannatareagoida, pitkätstabiilitkaudetovatmyösmahdollisia
Ekosysteemitselviävät
Viestintäteknologiasektori Muutamansuurenyrityksenekosyste
emituottaakasvua, mutta on herkkämuutoksille
Tuoteinnovointituottaaresilienssiä, muttaeikasvua
Josepävarmuudetlisääntyvät, pientenyritystenverkosto on parempirakennemalli
Skotlannin Food & Drink Kehittyneetkorkeanjalostusarvonal
atherkkiämuutoksille Perusteollisuuskestäämuutoksest
Toimivaekosysteemikoostuutoisensatasapainottavistayrityksistä
Kokonaisuusratkaisee
Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030
Montaerimarkkinaa, joillahyvine
rilainenkäyttäytymistapa>erilais
etmenestystekijät
Systeeminhäiriät/muutoksetlevi
ävätkaikkialle
Globaalintoimijan on
hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit
Multiplex
Scenario in brief
Global system consists of different
domains with different structures and
behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system
Prerequi sites
Assymmetric development (local/sector specific regulation, bloc development, standardization, climate change agreements, polarization)
Drivers Diverse set of drivers, domain specific, systemic drivers, external shocks cascading throughout the system
Structure drivers
Role of public sector, International regulation, polarization of growth
Multiplex
Scenario in brief
Global system consists of different
domains with different structures
and behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system
KokonaisuusratkaiseeGlobaalintalous: Multiplex 2030 Montaerimarkkinaa,
joillahyvinerilaisetmenestystekijät Systeeminhäiriöt/muutoksetleviävä
tkaikkialle
Globaalintoimijan on hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit
Globaalimetsäteollisuus>Joustava portfolio: sekämassa-tuotantoaettäräätälöityjäbisneksiä
Kestäväportfolio on moni-muotoinen, myöstoimintatavoiltaan
LOCALIZED PRODUCTION
Invest in small production units close to the deinked pulp and large markets. Micro mills in cities make quick re-cycling possible.
Organize own recycled paper collection and sorting company
Search partners for printing paper company fusions.
SCALE FREE PORTFOLIOS
Integrate printing paper industry with biorefineries. Use wood also for producing other high-value products and by-products.
Concentrate on big production units in low cost areas.
Vertical integration. UseMultiple revenue possibilities .
Vienninrakenne Moninaisuustuottaamyoskasvua
Rytmijaajoitus
Viestintäteknologiasektori Mitäkovemmatinnovaatiovaatimuks
et, sitäparempi
Tietoinenfokuserilaisillenopeanrytmininnovaatiomarkkinoille
Painetunviestinnändigitalisoituminen Ekosysteeminrakentaminen vie
aikaa
Jos kasvuahalutaan, eikannata olla pioneeri
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E-BOOK SALES IN US
http://www.publishers.org/main/IndustryStats/documents/S12008Final.pdf
Epävarmuuseiuhka, vaanmenestystekijä
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16. HYBRID KNOWLEDGE
15. FROM PHARMA TO I.T INTEGRATION
14. PRICE AND QUALITY
13. OPEN SOURCE SCOTLAND
12. PIONEER SCOTLAND
11. SPECIALISED PARTNER
10. INFLUENCE EU MARKET
9. HARD TO COPY
8. NHS COLLABORATION
7. RADICAL INNOVATION
6. SELF FUNDING
5. CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIALIST
4. LARGE COLLABORATION
3. COMBINATIONS
2. NETWORKED OPERATIONS
1. NICHE FOCUS
Portfolio size
Large collaborationIT integrationPrice and quality
Climate change specialistInfluence EU marketSelf funding
Radical Innov.Networked operationsSpecialized partnerOpen source Scotland
Hard to CopyHybrid knowledgeNiche FocusNHS collaborationCombinationsPioneer Scotland
Core Contingent
Cu
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nt
Ne
w
Portfolio
Globaalimetsäteollisuus, SkotlanninFood&Drinkja Life Scences
Epävarmuuksiensystemaattinenanalyysituottaajoustavuutta
Haasteenaei ole riskienminimointivaanmahdollisuuksienmaksimointi!
Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?AUTOMAATTINEN SOPEUTUMINEN
Rakenne• Kansallinen portfolio: painopistealueistadiversifiointiin• Suurteollisuudestaekosysteemeihin• Massatuotannostapientenerilaistenbisnestenportfolioon
Ohjaus• Fokusoidustastrategiastasyklinmukaiseentoimintaan
Oikeatvalinnat• Investoinnit? - Koulutus? - Tuotantorakenne?
• Nopeus• Tilastoistatoimintaympäristönseurantaa
• Muutoksenhidastamisestainnovaatiovauhdin (jakonkurssien) suosimiseen
• Teknologiainnovaatioistanopeaanvanhanjauudenkombinointiin
• Kompleksisuus• Kombinaatiot (perustutkimus)
• Monimuotoinenrakenne
• Julkisenjayksityisensektorinyhteinentarjoamavientimarkkinoille
• Lyhytaikainenkasvu• Resurssienuudelleenallokointi
Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?KASVU
Seven Innovation Strategies?
1. Growth. • Diversification of the offering of
large RCA companies.• Exclusivity of
products, combinations of old and novel technology
• Active initiator.
2. Follower. • Specialized partner of global
networks. • Basic research for wide
competence set• Unique combinations in
education.
3. Speed . • Focus on high speed innovation
sectors.• Agile allocation of resources
(resource pools, facilitators) • Funds; Bankrupt insurance, risk
insurance, AAF • Innovation stock
7. Portfolio. • Export portfolio – complex
services• Diversification of
sectors, competences and GVA intensity
• Surprise management
5. New ecosystems. • New sector definitions• Low GVA ecosystem + arrow
head companies• By-products, multipurpose
production• Domestic demand• Diverse usage of resources• Gradual path to
entrepreneurship
6. Designer. • Modes management, cycle
scanning, contingent instruments
• Role shifting concepts; public and private
• Integration of public and private resources in value chains
4. Platform. • IT infrastructure (super
computing)• Regulation (open source, virtual
production, mode defined taxation)
• Insurance portfolio• Bilaterial agreements
Stable& Turbulent World
Volatile World Multiplex
Scen ario in brief
The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence.
The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior.
Global system consists of
different domains with different
structures and behaviours.
Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system
Prerequi sites
Fast climate change, resource scarcity severe, capitalism (financial system) fails in some areas
Global growth period 2010-2020, technology development fast (does not solve scarcityproblems)
Assymmetric development
Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong nations, strong ideologies, clash of cultures, political power strong, wars (trade/military conflicts)
Knowledge drives economy, quantum computing, zero energy sources , global financial system collapsed, globalization is over, no reliance on policy makers
Diverse set of drivers, domain specific
Structure drivers
Strong IPR, public sector role strong, successful global operations track record
Open source development, climate change is mitigated,/failure, resource scarcity, no ideologies
Role of public sector
Space of Uncertainty Process
1. Game changers – key uncertaintiesGC list
Web enquiry
2. Extreme worlds Descriptions of extreme worlds/markets
dominated by the uncertainty
3. Success strategies for extreme worlds
List of activities, capabilities or development items that produce success in the extreme world
4. Assessment of activities’ benefitsWeb enquiry
5. Potential portfolio that will produce success what-so-ever happens
RPM method for quantitative analysis
x3
p1
p2
p3
x5
x1
x4
x7
x2
x6
Current activities that are sensitive for change
Watch List
New activities that seem to be relevant in many extreme situations
Activities that are valid in many extreme situations
Core Contingent
Cu
rren
t N
ew
Portfolio