XAVIER CEUGNIET, IBM DATA AND AI A COGNITIVE MODELING ... · a cognitive modeling assistant to...
Transcript of XAVIER CEUGNIET, IBM DATA AND AI A COGNITIVE MODELING ... · a cognitive modeling assistant to...
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A COGNITIVE MODELING ASSISTANT TO OPTIMIZE COMPLEX DECISIONS
XAVIER CEUGNIET, IBM DATA AND AI
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A COGNITIVE MODELING ASSISTANT
A SIMPLE SCHEDULING DEMO AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
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A COGNITIVE MODELING ASSISTANT
A SIMPLE SCHEDULING DEMO THE COGNITIVE OPTIMIZATION FRAMEWORK
LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
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A COGNITIVE MODELING ASSISTANT
A SIMPLE SCHEDULING DEMO
AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
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USER APPLICATION
DATA PREPARATION
AI MODELING
MACHINE LEARNING SPARK-ML, SCIKIT, SPSS, AUTO AI
DECISION OPTMIZATION CPLEX, CPO, MODELING ASSISTANT
WATSON STUDIO WATSON MACHINE LEARNING
DEPLOY INVOKE
ML MODELS TRAINING, SCORING
OPTIM MODELS SOLVING
API
AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
LOCATED IN A MACHINE LEARNING & OPTIM. CLOUD
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CAPTURING & SOLVING A DECISION MODEL
OPTIM MODEL GENERATION
SOLUTION / CONFLICT REPORTING
SOLVING
DECISION OPTIMIZATION MODELING ASSISTANT
DECISION MODEL ELICITATION
AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
Decision Model : A set of business concepts, decision types and decision rules
‣ Formalizing a decision problem
‣ Verbalized in natural language
‣ Can be translated to an optimization model
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
DECISION MODEL ELICITATION STEPS
DOMAIN SELECTION
INTENT CONFIGURATION
DECISION RULES ELICITATION
DECISION DOMAINS SCHEDULING,
RESOURCE ASSIGNMENT, SELECTION, PLANNING,
…
DECISION MODEL ELICITATION
DECISION MODEL
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
DECISION DOMAINS
DOMAIN CONCEPTS
INTENT TEMPLATES
DECISIONS TYPES
DECISION RULES TEMPLATES
Typical entities/elements entering the problem definition
e.g. Task, Resource, Distance matrix
Typical problems than can be addressed
e.g. Schedule <tasks> and allocate <resources>
Possible decisions to be taken
e.g Task start/end date, Resource-Task allocation
Pattern of business constraints, business goals, business kpis
e.g Schedule must comply with <duration> of <task>
e.g Maximize overall value of <assignments> w.r.t. <value table>
Define a class of decision problems characterised by :
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
DECISION DOMAIN LIBRARY
Decision domains are organised in an open hierarchy, where more specialised domains inherits the elements - domain concepts, decisions, intents & rules templates - defined in ancestors
PRIMITIVE DECISIONS
RESOURCE ASSIGNMENT
SCHEDULING
SELECTION &
ALLOCATION
PLANNING
S&OP
Modeling Assistant
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
INTENT CONFIGURATIONTo map the main business concepts to user data and to identify main decisions
Definition of vocabulary
Activity is a Task
Subcontractor is a Resource
Decision model initialisation
Definition of main decision types
Activity duration, start , end
Subcontractor-Activity assignment
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
DECISION RULES ELICITATIONElicitation relies on Suggestions computed by Modelling Assistant, based on:
rule templates with verbalisation & clues
user data, decisions,
rules already elicited, vocabulary definitions
optional user query, e.g :
USER QUERY
SUGGESTIONS
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
INFERRING VOCABULARY DEFINITIONAn elicited rule may require additional vocabulary definitions on user data to be fully defined
STEP 1 : The user selects a suggested rule (an instance of a rule template)
DECISION RULE
DOMAIN CONCEPT AssignmentValue
USER DATA
DECISION RULE TEMPLATE
is a
instance of
Estimate
Minimize overall cost of <Assignment Decisions> according to <AssignmentValue>
STEP 2: The Modeling Assistant deduces some definition from the rule
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
DECISION RULES ELICITATION
REQUIRED DEFINITIONS
DOMAIN CONCEPT
AssignmentValue property task as Task property resource as UnaryResource property value as Numeric
USER DATAEstimate
STEP 3: The modeling assistant identifies vocabulary definitions required by the rule
STEP 4: The definitions need to be completed before a solve can be executed
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
OPTIMIZATION MODEL GENERATIONWhen a solve is requested, the decision model is first translated to an optimization model.
TECHNICAL DECISION RULES
OPTIMIZATION MODEL GENERATION
DECISION RULES DATA & DECISIONS DEFINITIONS
CPLEX/CPO MODEL PYTHON
RULE REWRITING
MODEL GENERATOR (DOMAIN DEPENDANT)
DECISION DOMAIN TECHNICAL REWRITING RULES
DECISION MODEL
Rule rewriting allows to reduce complexity of the model generator associated to a domain
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AN APPROACH TO COGNITIVE MODELING
GENERATED OPTIMIZATION MODEL‣ Model generated in Python, using Pandas for data & solution processing
‣ The model can be exported as an Notebook in Watson Studio and extended by an OR expert
Modeling assistant can be used as a starting point for advanced optim. model
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A COGNITIVE MODELING ASSISTANT
A SIMPLE SCHEDULING DEMO INSIDE COGNITIVE MODELING
LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
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LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
… WITH A CUSTOM DECISION DOMAIN ‣ In case you are an expert of solving a type of industry-specific decision problem
‣ ‘Just write’ and import a custom domain in Modeling Assistant
‣ Allowing your decision makers or consultants with no OR skills to deliver optimization models
‣ E.g. Unit Commitment domain
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LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
… WITH A CUSTOM DECISION DOMAIN ‣ Custom domains make formulation of rules much more intuitive
….WITH RESOURCE ASSIGNMENT
A production unit cannot be at 100% capacity at once.
Ramp-up capacity of unit should be taken into account
THE BUSINESS CONSTRAINT
….WITH UNIT COMMITMENT+ similar one for first period…
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LEVERAGING YOUR OWN DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
EXTENDING DECISION DOMAIN LIBRARYBy inheriting elements from an internal domain, a custom domain writer can focus on adding domain specific business concepts , decision types, rule templates (intents, goals, constraints, kpis)
PRIMITIVE DECISIONS
RESOURCE ASSIGNMENT
SCHEDULING
SELECTION &
ALLOCATION
PLANNING
S&OP
E.G. UNIT COMMITMENTE.G. MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING
Internal Domains
Custom Domains
Writing optimization generation code is only required for rules that cannot be rewritten as rules of parent domain
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A COGNITIVE MODELING ASSISTANT
FUTURE WORKImprove suggestions
by better NL query processing
by learning about solutions
Improve smart visualisation
Visualisation is key for business experts to evaluate quality of a model
Improve industry covering
Build a community of decision domain contributors