Xavier Brun, PhD - Solventis€¦ · Sept. Oct. Nov Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug....
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1 Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017 Xavier Brun, PhD Madrid. March 30th, 2017
Transcript of Xavier Brun, PhD - Solventis€¦ · Sept. Oct. Nov Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug....
2Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
6Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
Year 1 Year 5 CAGS
Sales 100 100 0%
COGS 50 58 3%
% 50% 58%
SG&A 30 35 3%
EBIT 20 7
% 20% 7%
EV/EBIT 10,0x 27,6x
Trap stockYear 1 Year 5 CAGS
Sales 100 100 0%
COGS 50 50 0%
% 50% 50%
SG&A 30 30 0%
EBIT 20 20
% 20% 20%
EV/EBIT 10,0x 10,0x
Boring StockYear 1 Year 5 CAGS
Sales 100 116 3%
COGS 50 58 3%
% 50% 50%
SG&A 30 35 3%
EBIT 20 23
% 20% 20%
EV/EBIT 10,0x 8,6x
Growth Stock
Year 1 Year 5 CAGS
Sales 100 116 3%
COGS 50 58 3%
% 50% 50%
SG&A 30 30 0%
EBIT 20 28
% 20% 24%
EV/EBIT 10,0x 7,2x
Good BusinessYear 1 Year 5 CAGS
Sales 100 116 3%
COGS 50 50 0%
% 50% 43%
SG&A 30 30 0%
EBIT 20 36
% 20% 31%
EV/EBIT 10,0x 5,6x
Excellent Business
5 STOCK CATEGORIES
EV/EBIT
Initial 10,0x
Trap Stock 27,6x
Boring stock 10,0x
Growth stock 8,6x
Good business 7,2x
Excellent business 5,6x
EV/EBIT
Initial 10,0x
Trap Stock 27,6x
Boring stock 10,0x
Growth stock 8,6x
Good business 7,2x
Excellent business 5,6x
7Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
“a biopharmaceutical company specializing in
treatments for respiratory allergies “
8Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER
At a Glance• Market Cap: ~613m EUR.
• Net cash position = 63m EUR
• Founded in 1962 within the Merieux Institute (France)
• One of two world market leaders in treatements for respiratory allergies (Allergy
Immunotherapy Therapies - AIT).
• Present in more than 40 countries.
• In 2009 accelerated its global expansion with Oralair (Grass).
• In 2015 Oralair was 1st ever immunotherapy tablet authorized by FDA in USA.
• In 2015/16 Actair (HDM) approved in Japan & Australia.
SALES 2002 … 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
11% SUBCUTANEOUS
86% SUBLINGUAL STALORAL
ORALAIR Europe
US
ACTAIR International
9Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
ALLERGY TREATMENT SPACE
Allergies
Treated
symptomatically
Allergen
Immunotherapy (AIT)
Reduce symptoms
Re-educate immune system
• Antihistamines
• Corticosteroids
11Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER: Business model
New
prescripton
End
treatment
Year 1
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 3
Year 4
Year 2
SALES
Sept. Oct. Nov Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug.
PRESCRIPTION X X X X X X X
TREATMENT X X X X X X
PRESCRIPTION X X X X X X X X X X X X
TREATMENT X X X X X X X X X X X X
SPRING
GRASS
MITE
x 3/5 years
12Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER: Sales evolution
Before 2002. Subcutaneous treatments
2002. Staloral. First sublingual treatment
2009. Oralair. Marketing Authorization in
most EU countries
2014. Oralair. 1st ever approval by FDA in US
Launch Oralair in US
2016. Actair (HDM): Launched in Japan and
Australia
13Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER. 2015 Perfect Storm
2015: PERFECT STORM1) May: Merger with GREER (US). No data, only proforma.
2) September: Europe: Temporary suspension of Antony Plant (France) due to IT
system issues.
Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov Dec.
PRESCRIPTION X X X X X X X X
TREATMENT X X X X X X
20162015
Operational
problems startTemporary
suspension
New patient
enrolment was 70%
of 2015 (France)
RESTART program
14Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER. 2016 situation
Impact: Antony’s temporary suspension Achievements in 2016:
• April 2016: French Health Authority
(ANSM) authorized to restart
operations.
• 70% references available.
• New patients enrolment in June
2016 was at 70% of 2015 (France).
• Increase in market share from 15%
to 25% (with no prescription period
included).
Result Restart again
15Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER. Summary
PRODUCT:• NO product related issues.
• US sales - 1m to 50m in first year.
PERMITS:
• French Health Authority (ANSM) reopened in only 3
months.
• Meanwhile, No release from FDA.
COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE:
• Size: Small market for big pharma.
• Permits in US. ALK has neither permits nor sales force.
• Access to raw materials. Greer is one of the largest players.
• Getting FDA permit is no mean feat.
MARKET:• 25% world population is suffering from allergic rhinithis.
• AIT penetration in EU 10% and US 18%.
TURNAROUND:
• 50m in cash + 50m in revolving facility (Dec 2016).
• R&D: Large pipeline in Phase II/III for HDM Asthma, Japan
Cedar or Birch.
16Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
STALLERGENES GREER.
Stallergenes SA stagr fp
Currency EUR Last price 31,10
Category 2 Market Cap 614
Net Debt -63
EV 551
Dic Dic Dic Dic Dic Dic Dic Dic Dic Dic
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.014 2015pf 2016e Normalization
Sales 147 171 193 216 232 240 245 251 273 192 363
EU 142 163 186 207 222 226 231 233 259 105 233
US 1 52 73 102
International 5 8 7 9 11 13 14 18 14 14 28
new clients 57 64 72 77 80 82 84 53 64
EBIT 25 28 32 45 55 56 62 60 -19 -84 85
% 17% 16% 17% 21% 24% 23% 26% 24% -7% -44% 23%
- transformation costs -12
Net profit 16 19 22 31 37 37 40 48 -9 -60 60
11% 11% 12% 14% 16% 16% 17% 19% -3% -31% 16%
15x PE 893
+ Net cash 63
- restructuring costs -50
VALUE 905
gain % 48%
28-mar.
18Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
20Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
QUESTIONS?Xavier Brun, PhD
CIO- Fund Manager at Solventis, SGIIC
+ 34 93 200 95 78
c/ Colón 10, 1ª planta 36201 Vigo
Tel. + 34 986.225.659
Avda. Diagonal 682, 5ª planta
08034 Barcelona
Tel. + 34 932 .009.578
BARCELONA VIGO MADRID
Paseo de la Castellana nº 60, 4ª planta
28046 Madrid
Tel. + 34 917 .932.970
21Xavier Brun . [email protected] Madrid, March 30th, 2017
XAVIER BRUN, PhD
Chief Investment Officer – Fund Manager
• PhD in economics at Universitat de Barcelona cum laude. Bachelor of Business Management and Administration and Degree in
Business Sciences from Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF). Master’s Degree in Banking and Finance from Idec- UPF.
• Joined Solventis in 2011 as a Porfolio Manager.
• Worked for Strategic Investment Advisors (SIA Funds- Spain) as a Senior Equity Analyst specialized in commodities.
• Head of Middle Office and Risk Units at Gesiuris SGIIC.
• Alternates his duties as a manager with his dedication as an associated teacher at Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) and director of
Masters Degree in Financial Markets at BSM- UPF.
• Author of several books from the Financial Advice Manual of Profit Editorial.
