x. Rod ö F. A. Comfn

Global Climate

Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH

Xavier Rode Francisco A. Comin (Eds.)

Global ClimateCurrent Researchand Uncertaintiesin the Climate System

With 86 Figures

i Springer

DR. XAVIER RODOUniversity ofBarcelonaClimate ResearchGroupBaldiri Reixac, 4-6, Torre D08032 BarcelonaSpaine-mail : xrodo@porthos.bio.ub.es

DR. FRANCISCO A. COMINInstituto Pirenaico de Ecologia -CSICAvda. Montanana 100550059 ZaragozaSpaine-mail: comin@ipe.csic.es

ISBN 978-3-642-07856-9 ISBN 978-3-662-05285-3 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-3 -662-05285-3

Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication DataGlobal climate / Xavier Rodö and Francisco A. Cornin (eds.) .

p.cm.Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. Climatic changcs. 2. Climatology. I. Rodö, Xavier, 1965- II. Comin, F.A. (Francisco A.)

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Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New Yorka member ofSpringer Science+Business Mediahttp://www.springer.de© Springer-VerlagBerlin Heidelberg 2003

Originally published by Springer-VerlagBerlin Heidelberg New York in 2003.

Softcover reprint of the hardcover Ist edition 2003

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Foreword

Uncertainty for Everyone

The one thing that is certain about the world is that the world is uncertain.

I have here, the question that apart of the matter, living matter, has to resolvein each and every one of its moments of existance. The environment of a livingbeing is apart of the living being where it turns out, the rest of the living beingslive. This is the drama of life on earth. Every living individual debates with hisenvironment, exchanging matter, energy and information in the hope of stayingalive, the same as all living beings who share that same environment. The adven­ture of a living being (of all living beings ) is to maintain reasonable independ­ence in face ofthe fluctuations ofuncertainty within the environment.

The range of restrictions and mutual relationships is colossal. How is the tran­seendental pretension of staying alive regulated? There is an equation imposed bythe laws of thermodynamics and the mathematical theory of information about theinteraction of a living being with his environment which we could state like this:

The complexity 01 a living individual plus his capacity for anticipation in re­sp ect to his en vironment is identical to the uncertainty of the environment plus thecapacity of that living being to change the environment.

We could reconsider the question: what alternatives has a living being to con­tinue living when the uncertainty of his environment grows? Let's speak aboutuncertainty first. There are many kinds ofuncertainty. For example, even though itmight sound strange, there is an uncertainty which we could say is predictable,that is, it acts with a certain amount of frequency, enough that natural selectionacts over a long period of time "inventing" for example, the intelligence of a bac­teria or a squid. However, there are more uncertain uncertainties that require thecapacity of anticipation greater than that of an octopus, a dog or a primate....or thatwhich begins with abstract knowledge and continues with science! Thus, with anincreasing capacity to know the world, apart of the biosphere, the human bio­sphere has also managed to touch the other term of the equation, that of the capac­ity to change the world. Let us call this technology.

The spiral causes dizziness: the pressure of uncertainty pushes an individual toknow what technology acquires in order to change the world. But two things hap-

VI Foreword

pen. The changes affect the uncertainty of the particular environment of each indi­vidual, and all individuals do the same! Something very special occurs with cli­mate in the second part of the equation.

While the complexity, anticipation and action vary a lot from one individual tothe other (whether that individual be an organism, family, flock, society, or na­tion) with each day more, the increase of climatic uncertainty is the same for all.There is only one way out. If science and technology affect global uncertainty,only more science and more technology will allow us, perhaps, to control it.

J. WagensbergBarcelona Science Museum

Preface

Climate research has undergone dramatic changes in the last decades and a major­ity of the knowledge being produced tends to be lost among the vast amount ofjournals and dissemination papers or, at most has a short virtual life from time totime on the internet. It was in an attempt to summari ze the state of the art in theclimate sciences that a conference was first held in Barcelona in 1999 from whichthis book eventually saw light. The meet ing was held with the aim of enriching thescientifi c debate on the climate sciences in our geographical area . The conferencehad in its initials , my own personal experience in several climate labs abroad and,a willingness to bring what was enlightening from that experience. The supportand encouragement 1 received from some of the reputed colleagues who later at­tended the meeting and eventually contributed to this book was particularly impor­tant. This book was first devised as a recopilatory of the talks given in that sympo­sium, but I sincerely think that the final product is even considerably better thanwhat was originally thought of at first. In fact this improvement is clear as, to theoriginal seven chapters, four new ones were added at several different stages ofdevelopment. The focus that each ofthe authors was asked to give to their chapter,intended to highlight those areas where there were gaps in c1imate knowledge andwhere research was currently pushing strongly.

In other thematic areas of interest, unfortunatel y, the limited extent of the bookfails to cover equally important topics that perhaps should have had a place in abook like th is. However, from the very bcginning, it was not the main purpose ofthe book to cover all the key issues that climate research currently faces. Opinionsfrom experts in the different areas give a detailed view of what are, at present, themain 'hotspots' in the functioning of the climate system of our planet. The book isintended to give the reader abrief overview of the current status of c1imate re­search, trying to take him/her from the basics of climate science in every field towhere research is currently being made in that particul ar area. The next years will,for sure, see rapid advances in many of these issues and quite probably, many ofthe questions raised here will eventually see a response .

In our planet both c1imate and biosphere evolved together, influenc ing eachother for millennia. The physical limits that make possible the existence of an ex­traordin ary variety of ecosystems and of life itself as we know it, arise from theongo ing interaction among phenomena as familiar as winds, clouds, light, air, landand water throughout the Earth's history. This same interaction produces large­scale phenomena that, like EI Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exchange hugeamount s of energy. It is also the way by which small changes in solar radiation areinternalized and translated into dramat ic climatic episodes such as the Ice Ages .

VIII Preface

This interaction also largely detennines the fate and the response to the increasingquantities of greenhouse gases that we are continuously throwing to the atmos­phere as the result of our unlimited economic and industrial activity.

Our climate system has a great inertia and this fact implies that, in the near fu­ture, we will have to live with the consequences of our acts in the past and in thepresent in the form of unprecedented climate changes. And, as we cannot escapesuch changes, we will have to learn how to adapt to them. But to do so, we need toincrease our knowledge on how the climate system works, how it worked in thepast and on the basis of this, forecast how it may evolve in the future. In essence,we must begin to admit that our changing earth is now facing us with a new pic­ture in which we are a fundamental part ofthe climate system.

The book has a set of introductory chapters: F.A. Comin and M.A. Rodriguez­Arias, in Chap. I, give an overview of the current status and future prospects ofclimate research while S.G.H. Philander explains in Chap. 2, the basics of globalwanning and discusses why this subject is a controversial issue, beyond scientificresults. In Chap. 3, the same author talks about the historical relations between EINifio and the Southern Oscillation, and the current status and prospects for its pre­dictability. C.F. Ropelewki and B. Lyon talk in Chap. 4 about what should be anideal Climate Information System for monitoring climate change and discuss theavailable forecasting and dissemination products in an overview of what are themain societal aspects of climate change. Later, S. M. Griffies in Chap. 5, analyzeswhat the main key areas of research and improvement in current ocean modelingare and describes what will possibly be the next generation of ocean models. In asecond chapter (Chap. 6), S.M. Griffies discusses, on the basis of recent results,the role of ocean memory on climate predictability. P. Ciais analyzes the new andpast global carbon cycles in Chap. 7, and discusses the sources, fluxes and sinksof carbon in the different compartments of the climate system. He also makessome remarks on the impacts of future climate seenarios on the global carbon cy­cle. T. Stocker relates changes in the global carbon cycle with the ocean circula­tion in Chap. 8 and discusses the possibility of abrupt climate changes takingplace in certain future scenarios. In Chap. 9, K. Alverson and C. Kull talk aboutpast climates and the detection of anthropogenic effects in historical records, re­viewing the infonnation given by paleoproxies of climate data. This infonnationcan be used to depict a baseline climate upon which to predict future climatechanges. The authors eventually attempt to assess what the significance of the pastis for the future. Krishnamurty and Kinter, in Chap. 10, describe what is currentlyknown and what is not, of the Indian Monsoon System and relate the monsoonalactivity with global climate variability. They further analyze the role of large-scalephenomena like ENSO and NAO in monsoon dynamics. Finally, X. Rodö inChap. 11 discusses the relations between the Tropics and the Extratropics, andanalyzes how new approaches to data analysis and modeling could also be used toincrease predictability at midlatitudes.

Acknowledgements. The book we present here is the result of aseries of lecturesgiven within the scope of 'Global Climate' , held at the Barcelona Science Mu­seum, under the auspices of 'La Caixa' Foundation in March 1999. The confer-

Preface IX

ence was co-sponsored by the Departament d'Universitats i Recerca ofthe Gener­alitat de Catalunya and the University of Barcelona.

Among the main people to thank, I wish to express my most sincere apprecia­tion to Miquel Angel Rodriguez-Arias whose expertise, diligence and patiencehave underpinned the successful edition of this book, on time. I also wish to thankJosep-Anton Morgui for his useful comments which improved some of the chap­ters and to Paquita Ciller, whose scientific curiosity made it possible for this un­dertaking to see light. Thanks also to Anne Zanatta, for her careful correction ofEnglish style and grammar. I am also grateful to M. Prats, Anna Coll and in par­ticular to the Director ofthe Science Museum, Jorge Wagensberg, for his supportand contribution in organizing the symposium here in Barcelona. And of course,thanks to the authors of the different chapters for their prompt contribution to thisbook. I also wish to thank the following scientific journals for allowing us to re­produce some of the published material appearing in this book. And in particular,Science for figures 11.7, 11.15, 11.17; Nature, for figures 11.1, 11.11, 11.16,11.18, 11.19; Journal of Climate for figures 11.5, 11.8, 11.9, 11.10; Climate Dy­namics for figures 11.4, 11.6, 11.12, 11.13 and Table 11.1; Int. J. Clim. For figure11.3 and Sedimentary Geology for figure 11.14.

As a last point, prior to finishing this presentation, I would like to recall Stein­beck (East of Eden, 1952) when he says:

'Maybe the knowledge is too great and maybe men are growing too smalI...Maybe, kneeling down to atoms, they're becoming atomized in their souls. Maybea specialist is only a coward, afraid to look out of his little cage. And think whatany specialist misses: the whole world over hisfence .'

X Rod6Barcelona, August 2002

Som d 'aquells que creuen que una curiositatenvers el passat es troba justificada, per da­munt de tot, per la vida dei present.

(We are 0/those who think that curiosity towards the pastis justified, above all things, by life in the present)

R. Lafont and eh. Anatole,History of Occitan literature, 1973

Ta Lluisa, Pau, Aina and Lluc, my climate system.

XR.

Table of Contents

Part I:

1 What we know about the Climate System? A brief review ofcurrent research.F. A. Comin, M A. Rodriguez-Arias.................................................. 3

1.1 Introduction 31.2 The Earth Climate System 41.3 Atmo spheric Model s . 61.4 Interactions of the atmo sphere with other components of the

climate system 111.5 Present certainties and uncertainties about the Earth climate 16

2 Why Global Warming Is A ControversiallssueS. George Philander.. 25

2.1 The global warming debate 25

3 EI Nifio: A Predictable Climate FluctuationS. George Philander.......................................................................... 34

3.1 EI Niüo 34

4 Climate Information Systems and Their ApplicationsC. F. Ropelewsk i, B. Lyon 41

4.1 Introduction 414.2 Mon itoring Climate 434.3 Climate Data 444.4 Climate Analysis 454.5 Seasonal Climat e Forecast s 464.6 Evaluation ofSeasonal Climate Forecast s 474.7 Climate Product Development 484.8 Dissemination of Climate Information 494.9 Feedback 504.10 Train ing 50

XIV Table of contents

Part 11:

5 An Introduetion to Oeean Climate ModelingS. M GrijJies 55

5.1 Introduction and motivation 555.2 Some basies of oeean dynamies 615.3 The dynamieal equations of an oeean model ............................... 685.4 Some future direetions 745.5 Closing remarks 75

6 An Introduetion to Linear Predietability AnalysisS. M GrijJies 80

6.1 Introduction and motivation 806.2 The thermohaline cireulation 826.3 Predictability in linear noise-driven systems 856.4 Elements of pattern analysis 916.5 Closing remarks 97

7 Carbon Cyeling over Lands and OeeansP. Ciais 102

7.1 Introduetion 1027.2 The earbon eycle during pre-industrial time 1037.3 The earbon eycle over the industrial period 1117.4 Conclusions 124

8 Changes in the Global Carbon Cycle and Oeean Cireulationon the Millennial Time SealeT. F. Stocker 129

8.1 Introduetion 1298.2 Carbon eycle 1318.3 Ocean and Abrupt Climate Change 1348.4 Reeonstrueted Changes in Atmospherie C02 1408.5 Future Changes and Feedback Processes 1448.6 Conclusions 148

9 Understanding Future Climate Change Using PaleoreeordsK. Alverson, C.Kuli 153

9.1 Introduetion: Why Study the Past? 1539.2 Deteeting Anthropogenie Change 1609.3 Understanding Earth System Processes 1719.4 Assessing the Risks ofFuture Global Climate Change 1769.5 How is the Past Signifieant for the Future? 181

Table of contents XV

10 The Indian Monsoon and its Relation to Global Climate Vari­abilityV Krishnamurthy, 1. L. Kinter . 186

10.1 Introduct ion 18610.2 Climatology 18710.3 Monsoon variability 19410.4 Modeling 222

11 Interactions between the Tropics and Extratropics. A bit ontheory, results and prospects for future predictability.X Rodo 237

I 1.1 Introduction 23711.2 Brief background knowledge 24211.3 Dynamics of tropical-extratropical connections: a summary of

theoretical approaches 24911.4 Analytical caveats : the transient approach 25711.5 Mode1ing and predictability for the Extratropics: a briefing on

interactions between climate and ecosystems 26211.6 Feedbacks from the Extratropics 26611.7 Prospects for future research and the future evolution of ENSO 266

List of contributors

Alverson, K.PAGES International Project Office. Bärenplatz 2, Bern, CH-3011, Switzerlandalverson @pages.unibe.ch

Ciais,P.Laboratoire des Seiences du Climate et I'Environement, LSCE (CNRS). Orme des Meris­iers, Bat. 709, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, Cedex, Franceciais@lsce.saclay.cea.fr

Comin, F.AInstituto Pirenaico de Ecologia (CSIC). Avda. Montafiana 1005,50059 Zaragoza, Spaincomin@porthos.bio.ub.es

Griffies, S.M.Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA . Princeton Forrestal Campus Rte. I, P.O.Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542-0308 , USAsmg@gfdJ.noaa.gov

Kinter III, J.L.Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society ,Inc. 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Carlverton, MD 20705-3106, USAkinter@cola .iges.org

Krishnamurthy, V.Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Institute of Global Environment and Society,Inc. 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Carlverton, MD 20705-3106, USAkrishna@cola.iges .org

Kuli, C.PAGES International Project Office. Bärenplatz 2, Bern, CH-3011 , Switzerlandkull@pages .unibe.ch

Lyon,BInternational Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University. 61 Rt. 9W,MoneIl Building, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USAblyon@iri.columbia.edu

Philander,S.G.H.Department of Geosciences, Princeton University. Guyot Hall, Washington Rd., Princeton,NJ 08544-1003 , USAgphlder@Princeton.edu

List of contributors XVII

Rod6, X.GRC - Grup de Recerca deI Clima, Centre de Climatologia i Meteorologia, Parc Cientificde Barcelona, Universitat de Barcelona . Baldiri i Reixach 4-6, Torre D, 08028 Barcelona,Cataloniaxrodo@porthos.bio.ub.es

Rodriguez-Arias, M.A.GRC - Grup de Recerca deI Clima, Centre de Climatologia i Meteorologia, Parc Cientificde Barcelona , Universitat de Barcelona . Baldiri i Reixach 4-6, Torre D, 08028 Barcelona,Cataloniamar@porthos .bio.ub.es

Ropelewski, C.F.International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University. 61 Rt. 9W,MoneIl Building, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USAchet@iri.columbia. edu

Stocker, T.F.Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bem. Sidlerstrasse 5,CH-30l2, Bem, Switzerlandstocker@climate .unibe.ch

List of abbreviations

ACCacfacvfACWAGCMAMIPAOAOGCMBGCCLIVARCNRSCOLACOADSCPTECCTCZDAREDGFDICDJFDSPDWBCEAEA-JETEATLIWRUEBMECMWFEIMRENSIPENSOEOFEPGCMGCOSGFDGFDLGM90

Antarctic Circumpolar CurrentAutocorrelation functionAutocovariance functionAntarctic Circumpolar WaveAtmospheric General Circulation ModelAtmospheric Model Intercomparison ProjectArtic OscillationAtmospheric Ocean General Circulation ModelBiogeochemical CyclesClimate Variability and PredictabilityCentre Nationale de la Recherche ScientifiqueCenter for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere StudiesComprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data SetCentro de Previsäo de Tempo e Estudos ClimaticosEquatorial Cold Tongue RegionCane-Zebiak ModelData Rescue ProjectDeep Geostrophic FlowDissolved Inorganic CarbonDecember-January-February SeasonDynamical Seasonal PredictionDeep Western Boundary CurrentEast Atlantic PatternEast Atlantic Jet PatternEast Atlantic / Western Russia PatternEnergy Balance ModelEuropean Center for Medium Range Weather ForecastsExtended Indian Monsoon Rainfall IndexEI Nifio Simulation Intercomparison ProjectEI Nifio Southern OscillationEmpirical Orthogonal FunctionEast Pacific PatternGeneral Circulation ModelGlobal Climate Observation SystemGeophysical Flu ids DynamicsGeophysics Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGent and McWillians 1990

GMSGOESGOGAGOOSGPPGRHRIDBIMDIMRINSATIPCCIRIITCZlJAlJASlPLLAILRFLSCELUCCMAMMETEOSATMHMJOMODISMOGAMONEGMOMNAENASNASANCARNCEPNGONHNOANOAANPNPPNTSGOLRPAGESPARPCPDF

GeostationaryMeteorological SatelliteGeostationaryOperationalEnvironmentalSatelliteGlobal Ocean Global AtmosphereGlobal Ocean ObservingSystemGross Primary ProductionGlobal DomainResidualsHeterotrophie RespirationInteramericanDevelopment BankIndia Meteorological DepartmentIndian Monsoon Rainfall IndexIndian SatelliteInternational Panel for Climate ChangeInternationalResearch Institute for ClimatePredictionInterTropical ConvergenceZoneJune-July-August SeasonJune-July-August-September SeasonJet PropulsionLaboratoryLeaf Area IndexLong Range ForecastsLaboratoire des Seiences du Climat et l'EnvironmentLand Use and Cover ChangeMarch-April-MaySeasonMeteorological SatelliteMonsoon Hadley IndexMadden-lulian OscillationModerate Resolution Imaging SpectroradiometerMid-latitudeOcean Global AtmosphereMonsoon Numerical Experimentation GroupModular Ocean ModelNorth AtlanticEuropean SectorNorthernAfrica - SouthernEuropeNationalAeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchNationalCenter for Environmental PredictionNon GovernmentOrganizationsNorthernHemisphereNorth Atlantic OscillationNationalOceans and Atmosphere AdministrationNorth Pacific PatternNet Primary ProductionNumerical TerradynamicSimulationGroupOutgoing Longwave RadiationPast Global ChangesPhotosyntheticActiveRadiationPrincipal ComponentsProbability Distribution Function

XX List of abbreviations

PDOPlRATAPNAPOESPRPSAPVQBQGQQRASRCMSARSCANDSDCSGSSRSLPSMIPSOSONSPCZSRESSSHSSTSSTASVDTAOTARTBOTCRTCZTRCTOGATPWBGU

WETSWGCWMOWP

Pacific Decadal OscillationPilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical AtIanticPacificlNorth American PatternPolar Orbiting Environmental SatellitePlant RespirationPacific/South American PatternPotential VorticityENSO Quasi-biennial bandQuasi-geostrophicENSO Quasi-quadrennial bandRelaxed Arakawa-Schubert SchemeRadiative-Convective ModelSecond Assessment Report (IPCC)Scandinavian PatternScale Dependent Correlation AnalysisSub-grid ScalesSouthern HemisphereSea Level PressureSeasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison ProjectSouthern OscillationSeptember-October-November SeasonSouth Pacific Convergence ZoneIPCC Special Report on Emissions ScenariosSea Surface HeightSea Surface TemperatureSea Surface Temperature AnomalySingular Valuc DecompositionTropical Atmosphere OceanTh ird Assessment Report (IPCC)Tropospheric Biennial OscillationTransient Climate ResponseTropical Convergence ZoneThermohaline CirculationTropical Ocean Global AtmosphereTropical PacificWissenschaftlicher Beirat des Bundesregierung Globale UnweIt­veränderungenWorkshop on Extratropical SSTAnomaliesWind -driven Geostrophic CurrentWorld Meteorological OfficeWestern Pacific pattern