Www.unido.org/statistics A New Industrial Statistical Database of UNIDO for Structural Analysis...

www.unido.org/statistics

A New Industrial Statistical Database of UNIDO for Structural Analysis

Shyam UpadhyayaChief Statistician, UNIDO

S. Upadhyaya - INDSTAT22


Outline of the presentation

UNIDO statistical activities

Data dissemination and statistical products

INDSTAT2 database for structural analysis

Limitation of the database



UNIDO statistical activities

Collection, compilation and worldwide dissemination of industrial statistics as per mandate of UN Statistics Commission

Support to UNIDO research programmes with timely, reliable and internationally comparable statistics

Contribution to international statistics community in development of statistical methodology and international standard settings

Technical assistance programme for developing countries for capacity building in the field of industrial statistics

External data

request

In-house data

request

Request for development

projects

Inter-agency cooperation



Data preparation and dissemination

Transformation of national data to an international statistical productQuality assurance in terms of relevance, completeness, timeliness and, above all, international comparability

Dissemination:1. Publication of the International Yearbook of Industrial

Statistics2. CD products – INDSTAT4, INDSTAT2 and IDSB

3. Statistical country brief – online data portal www.unido.org/ statistics



Relevance of INDSTAT2 database

Many countries adopted later version of ISIC Earlier product INDSTAT3 was discontinued due to sharp decrease of the number of countries reporting data by ISIC rev-2

Different classification versions for different years – comparability problem in historical data series

INDSTAT4 presents data by ISIC rev-2 and rev-3 but users found it difficult for comparison in longer time-series

A compromised approach – Detail data for recent years (INDSTAT4) and aggregated data for longer series



Some data on INDSTAT2 database

Number of indicators: 8

Number of manufacturing sectors: 23 At 2-digit level of ISIC rev 3

Number of countries: 161

Period (2009 edition): 1963 to 2007

- updated every year

- coverage of period and data items varies by country



Data use for structural analysis

Share of industry groups in total using different classifications of industries derived from ISIC

Agro-industrial sectors Resource based sectorsMedium-high and high technology sectors (MHT)ICT goods production sectors Industrial sectors by intensity of energy use: high, moderate, low

Analysis of sector shift by countries; intensity of structural change

Industrial growth analysis – relation of growth and structural change



Share of agro-industrial sectors in total value added of manufacturing by years

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

In %

to to

tal

Republic of KoreaIndia

Tanzania

Source: UNIDO Statistics; INDSTAT2



Share of MHT sectors in total value added of manufacturing by years

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.019

70

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

In %

to to

tal

India

Republic of Korea

Tanzania




Share of high-energy intensive sectors in total value added of manufacturing by years

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.019

80

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

In %

to to

tal

China India

US Japan




Index numbers of the production of motor vehicles in major economies

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Germany Japan

United States Republic of Korea




Average annual wages per employee in manufacturing sector of Eastern European and CIS countries

(Reference period varies between 2005 – 07)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Slovenia

Croatia

Czech Republic

Hungary

Estonia

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Romania

Russian Federation

Albania

Ukraine

Bulgaria

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Georgia

Azerbaijan

Republic of Moldova

Armenia

Nominal rate in US$Source: UNIDO Statistics; INDSTAT2



Some commonly used coefficients for structural change

Coefficient of absolute structural change – ranges from 0 to 2/n

n

ssxd

n

i

xii

x

abs

1

01

)(

Integral coefficient of structural changeranges from 0 to 1

2

01

201

int

1

ii

ii

ss

ss

nd

)1(

61

2

2

nn

dsSpearman coefficient of rank

correlation ranges from -1 to 1

(higher the correlation lower the structural change)

n

ssC ii

d ln

ln

Coefficient of diversification

ranges from 0 to 1

Notations: si – share of i-th sector in total

d – difference of the value of two periods:

0 base and 1 current period

n – number of observations



Limitations of INDSTAT database

Value data in INDSTAT2 are presented in current prices, both in national currency and US$ using nominal exchange rate, so they cannot be used in time series analysis without deflating

Due to the difference of computation method value added may differ from the figures used in national account estimates (census concept, cut-off point in survey, valuation difference etc)

Data at 2-digit level are compiled from the earlier database of INDSTAT at 3 and 4-digit level of ISIC. This process involved aggregation, combination, imputation, estimations and so on which may have resulted in deviation of data from the source in varying scales



Concluding remarks

Despite its limitations INDSTAT2 is a unique statistical product, especially for structural analysis

Its coverage in terms of the number of countries and time-span offers a wide range of options for economic research

The database provides excellent opportunity to university students not only for investigative works but also to test their own skills of using various statistical methods of data handling, such as treatment with missing data, detecting inconsistent and dubious figures, imputation and preparation of data for analysis

Open interaction with users provides the best feedback to quality assurance of statistics produced.



Further information on INDSTAT2 is available in


Contact address: [email protected]

[email protected]

Www.unido.org/statistics A New Industrial Statistical Database of UNIDO for Structural Analysis...

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