www.odi.org.uk/food-security-forum

• Facilitating debate on policy options for strengthening food security

• 500 stakeholders in the region, 100+ in Malawi

• Bunda College APRU

• CIPs, Theme Papers, international e-discussions, draft Synthesis Paper

• Deadline June 2004

Perspectives on changes in 1990sInterpretations• Increasing

vulnerability (CARE)

• Increasing poverty under liberalisation (National RRA)

but

• Increasing incomes, opportunities under market liberalisation (Orr & Mwale, Orr & Orr)

 Indicators Early 90s Late 1990s

Nutrition (1)    

Moderate stunting, <5 yrs

49.2% 49.0%

Moderate underweight, <5

27.6% 25.4%

Economy (2)    

GDP/cap/constant US$ 147 168Welfare (2)    

Human Development Index

0.36 0.40

Infant Mortality, % 123 103

Primary enrolment, gross %

73 131

Data sources: (1) DHS, (2) WDIWhy the differences?

Malawi indicators of food security 2Crop production

Source: FAOSTAT

• Highest increase in region in food production index 1990-2000 (WDI, 2002)

• But largely non-maize• Maize yields only 1/3 of potential

‘000

tonnes1979-81

1989-91

1999-01

2000 2001 2002 2003

All cereals

1,341 1,560 2,336 2,631 1,742 1,710 2,145

Maize 1,274 1,480 2,190 2,501 1,589 1,556 1,983

Malawi indicators of food security 3 Population below poverty line

Source: State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2003

• Local poverty line: US $ 0.41 p.p. per day (US $ 0.25 p.p. per day for 35% ultra poor)

• Malawi 163 out of 174 ldc’s• Poverty line = 80% food families below poverty line

cannot secure minimum food needs

1997-98 Rural Urban

Lesotho 54 29

Malawi 67 55

Mozambique 71 62

Zambia 83 56

Zimbabwe 48 8

Food security policy options

Key:Time-frame for impact on food security if implemented today:

Current year

After minimum 1–3 years

FOOD UTILISATIONFood and nutrition interventions for vulnerable groups

Nutrition education

FOOD AVAILABILITY

Business

Employment

Social protection

Food imports

Food stocks

Market development

(inputs, outputs, finance, land)

Decentralisation

Price stabilisation

Agricultural diversification

Education

Health

Food security information collection and utilization

Food aid

ACCESS TO FOOD

Market-based economic development• Coordination risks can be severe in

emerging markets …• … the search for effective economic

institutions, including – Public role in setting grades and standards,

contract law, etc – and not forgetting stable and consistent macro-economic policies

– Private role in forms of cooperation, contracting, interlocking markets (institutional innovation)

Dorward, A (2003) `Modelling poor farm-household livelihoods in Malawi: lessons for pro-poor policy’ http://www.wye.ic.ac.uk/AgEcon/adu/research/porjects/ppag/mlhhmdrf.pdf

Vulnerability

• How to reduce vulnerability? Maximising growth vs reducing risk e.g. HYV vs OPV maize in Malawi

• Safety nets: affordability – fiscal impacts? Safety nets a residual - important role for fiscal and monetary policy, productive Ministries

• Entitlement and targetting: economic vs political case• More nuanced indicators of vulnerability in EWS; greater

use of VAC data

Farrington et al (2004) `Social Protection and Agricultural Growth’ ODI Natural Resources Perspective Paper www.odi.org.uk

Policy implementation

External Influences political context

evidencelinks

Campaigning, lobbying

Politics and policymaking

Media, advertising, networking Research,

learning & thinking

Scientific information exchange & validation

Policy analysis & research

Tiyeni tonse tipange kuti Malawi akhali ndi chakudya chokwanira