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China: Opportunities, Challenges & Market Entry Strategies
China: Opportunities, Challenges & Market Entry Strategies
Barry Friedman
Minister-Counselor for Commercial Affairs
U.S. Commercial Service
U.S. Embassy, Beijing
Barry Friedman
Minister-Counselor for Commercial Affairs
U.S. Commercial Service
U.S. Embassy, Beijing
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
The China Opportunity and ChallengeThe China Opportunity and Challenge
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The China DreamThe China Dream
• China consumes 40% of the world’s cement, 41% of the iron ore and 35% of the coal
• Second largest consumer of oil after the US• Second largest market for vehicles after the U.S. with
sales of 7.22 million units• 100 million mobile phones were sold in 2006• 140 million internet users – 77 mil via broadband• China’s GDP growth continues at over 10% and will
likely continue at that level for some years to come
• China consumes 40% of the world’s cement, 41% of the iron ore and 35% of the coal
• Second largest consumer of oil after the US• Second largest market for vehicles after the U.S. with
sales of 7.22 million units• 100 million mobile phones were sold in 2006• 140 million internet users – 77 mil via broadband• China’s GDP growth continues at over 10% and will
likely continue at that level for some years to come
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Long-Term DimensionsLong-Term Dimensions
• China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for at least 3,000 of last 4,000 years.
• In 1820, China represented 33% of world GDP, vs. 2% for USA. In 2006, China 15% vs. U.S. 20%
• Historic tide shifted in 1842 with Opium War, colonialism,disintegration, WW2 and Communism.
• In 1979, Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms and opening to the outside world. Confirmed in 1992.
• Initiated a 28 year process of 6–14% annual GDP growth. Average 9% growth.
• China has been the world’s largest manufacturer for at least 3,000 of last 4,000 years.
• In 1820, China represented 33% of world GDP, vs. 2% for USA. In 2006, China 15% vs. U.S. 20%
• Historic tide shifted in 1842 with Opium War, colonialism,disintegration, WW2 and Communism.
• In 1979, Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms and opening to the outside world. Confirmed in 1992.
• Initiated a 28 year process of 6–14% annual GDP growth. Average 9% growth.
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Annual GDP Growth (YoY, %)Annual GDP Growth (YoY, %)
55.5
66.5
77.5
88.5
99.510
10.511
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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China in a Time of TransitionChina in a Time of Transition
– Confucian to modern
– Communist to market-driven (not capitalist)
– Rural and agrarian to urban and industrial
– Development of Rule of Law
– Economic Autarchy to global integration
– Rise in expectations -- “consumer culture”
– Confucian to modern
– Communist to market-driven (not capitalist)
– Rural and agrarian to urban and industrial
– Development of Rule of Law
– Economic Autarchy to global integration
– Rise in expectations -- “consumer culture”
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Headline News – 2006Headline News – 2006
• Fastest growing export market for the US
• U.S. exports to China $55 bn. in 2006, up 31%
• Trade deficit record $233 bn. FX reserves $1 trillion • Per capita GDP up to approximately $ 1740 (nominal)
• China’s goal is to quadruple GDP in 20 years, which implies an average 7.3% annual growth.
• Fastest growing export market for the US
• U.S. exports to China $55 bn. in 2006, up 31%
• Trade deficit record $233 bn. FX reserves $1 trillion • Per capita GDP up to approximately $ 1740 (nominal)
• China’s goal is to quadruple GDP in 20 years, which implies an average 7.3% annual growth.
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U.S-China Bilateral Trade BalanceU.S-China Bilateral Trade Balance
83.8 83.1103.1
124
162
201.6
232.55
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US
Defi
cit
(U
SD
billio
n)
83.8 83.1103.1
124
162
201.6
232.55
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US
Defi
cit
(U
SD
billio
n)
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
U.S. Exports to China Jan – Dec (year on year)U.S. Exports to China Jan – Dec (year on year)
16.30 19.20 22.1028.40
34.70
41.84
55.22
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
USD(b)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
16.30 19.20 22.1028.40
34.70
41.84
55.22
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
USD(b)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Chinese Trade BalancesChinese Trade Balances
243.6295.3
560.8
660.2
791.79762.3
969.32
24.1 22.8 30.3 25.4 32.8102.1
177.5225.1
413.1
249.2 266.4325.6
593.6
438.5
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Imports
Exports
Trade B243.6
295.3
560.8
660.2
791.79762.3
969.32
24.1 22.8 30.3 25.4 32.8102.1
177.5225.1
413.1
249.2 266.4325.6
593.6
438.5
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Imports
Exports
Trade B
In USD billionIn USD billion
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Composition of U.S.- China Trade 2006, Top 12
HS U.S.-Exports to China (m USD) % Change HS U.S. Imports from China (m USD) % Change
1 85 Electrical Machinery, Etc. 10177.9 48.2 1 85 Electrical Machinery, Etc. 64905.5 22.32 84 Machinery; Reactors, Boilers 7704.3 21.1 2 84 Machinery; Reactors, Boilers 62266.1 18.13 88 Aircraft, Spacecraft 6089.6 40.3 3 95 Toys and Sports 20891.81 9.14 90 Optical, Medical Instruments 2941.3 22.5 4 94 Furniture and Bedding 19358.48 13.55 12 Misc. Grain, Seed 2584.6 13.1 5 64 Footwear 13890.02 9.26 39 Plastic 2715.6 20.0 6 62 Woven Apparel 11857.62 15.97 72 Iron and Steel 1800.3 12.8 7 73 Iron and Steel Products 8366.51 35.08 29 Organic Chemicals 1418.3 -6.3 8 61 Knit Apparel 8010.007 21.89 52 Cotton and Yarn, Fabric 2081.8 46.9 9 39 Plastic 7464.863 12.5
10 47 Woodpulp, Etc. 1473.6 48.1 10 42 Leather Art; Saddlery, Etc. 6835.478 9.211 76 Aluminum and Articles Thereof 1735.4 83.4 11 87 Vehicles, Not Railway 5134.472 22.012 87 Vehicles, Not Railway 1291.0 37.3 12 90 Optical, Medical Instruments 4787.12 16.0
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Economic Challenges
• Unemployment Rural Migration
• Over supply Bad debt Deflation
• Poor legal environment Corruption
• Strengthening the financial system
• Pollution control and lack of water
• Electric Power demand / supply equilibrium
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Best Export Prospects for US Companies in 2006Best Export Prospects for US Companies in 2006
• Agrochemicals• Air Traffic Management
Equipment Market• Safety and Security Market• Automotive Components
Market• Coal Mining Equipment• Construction Equipment
Market• Banking Technology• Credit Card Market• Education and Training• Franchising
• Agrochemicals• Air Traffic Management
Equipment Market• Safety and Security Market• Automotive Components
Market• Coal Mining Equipment• Construction Equipment
Market• Banking Technology• Credit Card Market• Education and Training• Franchising
• Semiconductor Industry• Machinery• Marine Industries• Liquefied Natural Gas• Power Generation• Software• Telecommunications Market• Water and Wastewater
Treatment• Medical Equipment
Find research on these sectors:www.export.gov/china
• Semiconductor Industry• Machinery• Marine Industries• Liquefied Natural Gas• Power Generation• Software• Telecommunications Market• Water and Wastewater
Treatment• Medical Equipment
Find research on these sectors:www.export.gov/china
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Best Prospects for US Companies in ChinaBest Prospects for US Companies in China
• Coal Mining Equipment– 75% of electricity is generated by coal, will be
going up to 85% in the next 7 years
• Commodities– Minerals, Agriculture, Scrap
• Construction Equipment– Building boom going on in China: 2008 Olympics,
2010 World Expo, 2010 Asian Games
• Coal Mining Equipment– 75% of electricity is generated by coal, will be
going up to 85% in the next 7 years
• Commodities– Minerals, Agriculture, Scrap
• Construction Equipment– Building boom going on in China: 2008 Olympics,
2010 World Expo, 2010 Asian Games
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Best Prospects for US Companies in ChinaBest Prospects for US Companies in China
• Cosmetics and Toiletries– As income has risen, so have sales
• Education and Training– 10% of income is spent on education– E-learning
• Environmental Protection and Clean-Up– Water, solid waste, medical waste– Scrubbers, de-NOX, de-SOX
• Cosmetics and Toiletries– As income has risen, so have sales
• Education and Training– 10% of income is spent on education– E-learning
• Environmental Protection and Clean-Up– Water, solid waste, medical waste– Scrubbers, de-NOX, de-SOX
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Best Prospects for US Companies in ChinaBest Prospects for US Companies in China
• Financial Services– Banking, Insurance, and investment vehicles open up
to foreign investment, Credit Cards
• Franchising– Food/beverage are doing well: Starbucks, KFC,
McDonalds. Beyond F&B
• Medical Equipment– 70% of medical devices are imported
• Financial Services– Banking, Insurance, and investment vehicles open up
to foreign investment, Credit Cards
• Franchising– Food/beverage are doing well: Starbucks, KFC,
McDonalds. Beyond F&B
• Medical Equipment– 70% of medical devices are imported
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Best Prospects for US Companies in ChinaBest Prospects for US Companies in China
• Nuclear Power– Start building 30 new reactors over the next 15 yrs
• Oil & Gas Exploration & Processing Equipment– Pipeline and Storage– Compressors– Offshore Exploration Equipment
• Retail– Wal-Mart, Office Depot, Home Depot
• Nuclear Power– Start building 30 new reactors over the next 15 yrs
• Oil & Gas Exploration & Processing Equipment– Pipeline and Storage– Compressors– Offshore Exploration Equipment
• Retail– Wal-Mart, Office Depot, Home Depot
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Best Prospects for US Companies in ChinaBest Prospects for US Companies in China
• Software– Specialty software is 70% imported
• Telecom– 3G applications– Equipment– Wireless LAN– On-Line Gaming
• Software– Specialty software is 70% imported
• Telecom– 3G applications– Equipment– Wireless LAN– On-Line Gaming
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Market Drivers -Rising Middle ClassMarket Drivers -Rising Middle Class
• China’s GDP has exponentially increased in the past 10 years, resulting in a larger portion of the population in the Middle Class.
• They are able to consume non-essential goods.
• Pent up demand for housing: 253 sq ft vs. 793 sq ft
• Domestic tourism growth: 25%
• Higher disposable income provides firms with a larger market.
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Keeping up with the ChansKeeping up with the Chans
20-year olds have known nothing but upward mobility
Luxury goods hot – from caviar to Harley-Davidson to Louis Vuitton
Western brands sell
‘Hypermarkets’ and retail chains booming along with new construction
Studies show most consumers planning big ticket item purchases in next 12 months
20-year olds have known nothing but upward mobility
Luxury goods hot – from caviar to Harley-Davidson to Louis Vuitton
Western brands sell
‘Hypermarkets’ and retail chains booming along with new construction
Studies show most consumers planning big ticket item purchases in next 12 months
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Sectors to Watch: LifestyleSectors to Watch: Lifestyle
Health and beauty
Travel and related services
Entertainment
- music, movies and related accessories
- outdoor activities & sporting goods
Home furnishings, fixtures and appliances
Health and beauty
Travel and related services
Entertainment
- music, movies and related accessories
- outdoor activities & sporting goods
Home furnishings, fixtures and appliances
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Market Drivers – WTO ImplementationMarket Drivers – WTO Implementation
• Banking, financial services, insurance
• Logistics, distribution, trading rights, retail
• Architecture, engineering and urban planning services
• Banking, financial services, insurance
• Logistics, distribution, trading rights, retail
• Architecture, engineering and urban planning services
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• Most AmCham companies are doing quite well in China. 73% of companies say they are profitable, while only 4% say they are experiencing large losses.
• Year over year results show more companies moving from profitable to very profitable.
• Ten years ago, the results would have been reversed.
• Most AmCham companies are doing quite well in China. 73% of companies say they are profitable, while only 4% say they are experiencing large losses.
• Year over year results show more companies moving from profitable to very profitable.
• Ten years ago, the results would have been reversed.
Source: 2004 AmCham White Paper, American Business in China
Very Profitable
Large Loss
Profitable
Break Even/Small Loss
16%
57%
23%
4 %
Improvement in Market ConditionsImprovement in Market Conditions
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U.S. Company ObjectivesU.S. Company Objectives
Source: 2004 AmCham White Paper, American Business in China
Export to China from the U.S. 14%
Produce goods or services in Chinafor non-U.S., non China markets 3%
Establish or expand regional base 5%
Export to China from countries other than the U.S. 2%
Shift manufacturing to lower cost location 2%
Produce goods or services in China
for the China market 58%
Support global customers 6%
Produce goods or services in China for U.S. market 10%
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Anticipate Problems - MacroAnticipate Problems - Macro
• Intellectual Property Rights– Patent - Trade Secrets– Copyright - Trademark
• Industrial Standards and Certification • Transparency/Corruption• Payment issues and Dispute Resolution• Price Controls and competition• Approvals and certifications
• Intellectual Property Rights– Patent - Trade Secrets– Copyright - Trademark
• Industrial Standards and Certification • Transparency/Corruption• Payment issues and Dispute Resolution• Price Controls and competition• Approvals and certifications
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Anticipate Problems - MicroAnticipate Problems - Micro
• Management-level human resources• Navigating Bureaucracy• Unclear Regulations / Inconsistent
Interpretation• Lack of Transparency• Contract Enforcement• Economic nationalism: “Indigenous
Innovation” and Local Protectionism
• Management-level human resources• Navigating Bureaucracy• Unclear Regulations / Inconsistent
Interpretation• Lack of Transparency• Contract Enforcement• Economic nationalism: “Indigenous
Innovation” and Local Protectionism
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Market Entry RoadmapAre you China Ready?
Market Entry RoadmapAre you China Ready?
Avoid “Chinaforia”: research, filter, include many data points Build IP protection into your business plan Consider regulations – US and China Due diligence, due diligence, due diligence Set long- and short-term goals, including an exit strategy Consider regional and industry specialization Consider outsourcing back-office functions Seek competent China-savvy legal advice and
professional assistance (avoid guanxi brokers)
Avoid “Chinaforia”: research, filter, include many data points Build IP protection into your business plan Consider regulations – US and China Due diligence, due diligence, due diligence Set long- and short-term goals, including an exit strategy Consider regional and industry specialization Consider outsourcing back-office functions Seek competent China-savvy legal advice and
professional assistance (avoid guanxi brokers)
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Market Entry RoadmapMarket Entry Roadmap
Direct Exports
Sales Agent / Distributor
Representative Office
Wholly Owned Foreign Enterprise
Foreign-Invested Commercial Enterprise (FICE)
Joint Venture / Acquisitions / Various Partnering
Gateways
Direct Exports
Sales Agent / Distributor
Representative Office
Wholly Owned Foreign Enterprise
Foreign-Invested Commercial Enterprise (FICE)
Joint Venture / Acquisitions / Various Partnering
Gateways
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Sales Agent / Distributor ( I )Sales Agent / Distributor ( I )
Advantages– no investment in office overhead– no registration requirements, no physical presence– lower likelihood of non-payment– no responsibility for customs clearance
Responsibilities– Comply with safety and quality certifications, China Compulsory
Certification, other standards requirements– Comply with the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act– Comply with U.S. Export Control regulations– Prepare a contract that protects your legal interests, see a local attorney– Closely monitor the agent / distributor’s activity
Advantages– no investment in office overhead– no registration requirements, no physical presence– lower likelihood of non-payment– no responsibility for customs clearance
Responsibilities– Comply with safety and quality certifications, China Compulsory
Certification, other standards requirements– Comply with the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act– Comply with U.S. Export Control regulations– Prepare a contract that protects your legal interests, see a local attorney– Closely monitor the agent / distributor’s activity
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Sales Agent / Distributor ( II )Sales Agent / Distributor ( II )
Manage Expectations
– use worldwide selection criteria, then evaluate skill sets
– explore their view of market prospects, approach to business development
– ask to see a prior marketing plan and market research report
– discuss cost sharing for Chinese language brochures, participation in trade shows, demonstration equipment, training in the U.S.
– contract should contain clear reporting requirements and performance goals to monitor whether the Chinese company can do what it purports to be able to do
– evaluate capacity to stock and warehouse
– consider profit motive of STE versus private firm.
Manage Expectations
– use worldwide selection criteria, then evaluate skill sets
– explore their view of market prospects, approach to business development
– ask to see a prior marketing plan and market research report
– discuss cost sharing for Chinese language brochures, participation in trade shows, demonstration equipment, training in the U.S.
– contract should contain clear reporting requirements and performance goals to monitor whether the Chinese company can do what it purports to be able to do
– evaluate capacity to stock and warehouse
– consider profit motive of STE versus private firm.
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Sales Agent / Distributor ( III )Sales Agent / Distributor ( III )
Due Diligence
– Many exaggerate trade experience, check trade references
– Ask for a copy of the firm’s business license, SAIC inspection, trading rights license, visit business premises
– Triangular debt common for entities lacking trading rights and foreign exchange
– Obtain a DD report through local service providers or CS.
China lacks a corporate credit rating system
– Government system for verification of business registration on line is emerging – SAIC Red Shield (Hong Dun) Program
Due Diligence
– Many exaggerate trade experience, check trade references
– Ask for a copy of the firm’s business license, SAIC inspection, trading rights license, visit business premises
– Triangular debt common for entities lacking trading rights and foreign exchange
– Obtain a DD report through local service providers or CS.
China lacks a corporate credit rating system
– Government system for verification of business registration on line is emerging – SAIC Red Shield (Hong Dun) Program
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Sales Agent / Distributor ( IV )Sales Agent / Distributor ( IV )
Contract Terms
– seek professional legal advice before contracting, do not rely upon your Chinese business partner
– ensure the dispute resolution clause limits time for “friendly discussion or mediation”
– do not accept obligations outside of your control: visas, export licenses
– do not export on open account or D/P terms
– ensure contract has non-competition and non-disclosure clauses to protect trade secrets, in the event the relationship ends badly
Contract Terms
– seek professional legal advice before contracting, do not rely upon your Chinese business partner
– ensure the dispute resolution clause limits time for “friendly discussion or mediation”
– do not accept obligations outside of your control: visas, export licenses
– do not export on open account or D/P terms
– ensure contract has non-competition and non-disclosure clauses to protect trade secrets, in the event the relationship ends badly
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Representative OfficeRepresentative Office
RRO may perform a useful government liaison and marketing function, contract implementation. Useful for getting into government procurement projects.
Restrictions on business scope apply:
– not allowed to engage in profit-making activity
– not allowed to directly import and distribute product
– not allowed to service equipment or warehouse spare parts
Establishment of physical presence now requires only local registration. The cost to support a modest RRO $250,000-500,000 depending on location and size.
Registered capital in the amount of $10,000 still required.
RRO may perform a useful government liaison and marketing function, contract implementation. Useful for getting into government procurement projects.
Restrictions on business scope apply:
– not allowed to engage in profit-making activity
– not allowed to directly import and distribute product
– not allowed to service equipment or warehouse spare parts
Establishment of physical presence now requires only local registration. The cost to support a modest RRO $250,000-500,000 depending on location and size.
Registered capital in the amount of $10,000 still required.
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Foreign-Invested Commercial EnterpriseForeign-Invested Commercial Enterprise
Market entry vehicle for domestic wholesale and retail distribution
Scope of operation includes “trading rights,” meaning the right to import or export goods manufactured by third parties into or out of China.
Scope of operation includes “distribution rights,” meaning right to sell products for its own account on retail or wholesale basis, import for sale within China, purchase domestic products for export and perform related services.
Market entry vehicle for domestic wholesale and retail distribution
Scope of operation includes “trading rights,” meaning the right to import or export goods manufactured by third parties into or out of China.
Scope of operation includes “distribution rights,” meaning right to sell products for its own account on retail or wholesale basis, import for sale within China, purchase domestic products for export and perform related services.
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Foreign-Invested Commercial EnterpriseForeign-Invested Commercial Enterprise
Restriction on ownership share lifted - WFOE generally allowed
Geographic restrictions abolished.
Minimum registered capital reduced from $6 million for retail and $9.6 million for wholesale to $36,000 and $60,000 respectively.
No minimum on prior annual sales, was $10 million or more per annum prior to 12/11/04.
Restriction on ownership share lifted - WFOE generally allowed
Geographic restrictions abolished.
Minimum registered capital reduced from $6 million for retail and $9.6 million for wholesale to $36,000 and $60,000 respectively.
No minimum on prior annual sales, was $10 million or more per annum prior to 12/11/04.
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
In China…Everything is possible, nothing is easy. ~ McDonald’s theorem
In China…Everything is possible, nothing is easy. ~ McDonald’s theorem
Where to go for help?
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
Find the right markets and partners with our proven products and services
Find the right markets and partners with our proven products and services
Trade counseling
Major project advocacy
Customized Market Research
Tailored appointments
Partner searches
Basic due diligence
Marketing promotions
Trade Missions, Trade Fairs and Catalog Exhibitions
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
IPR ResourcesIPR Resources
The US Embassy in Beijing has an IPR Toolkit website
http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/ipr.html
China IPR Advisory Program -
one hour of free IPR consultation with
a legal expert
US Patent & Trademark Office offers
free China conferences
IP webinar series (www.stopfakes.gov)
The US Embassy in Beijing has an IPR Toolkit website
http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/ipr.html
China IPR Advisory Program -
one hour of free IPR consultation with
a legal expert
US Patent & Trademark Office offers
free China conferences
IP webinar series (www.stopfakes.gov)
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
14 Secondary Cities with American Trading Centers14 Secondary Cities with American Trading Centers
More Market Access. Same Quality Service.
Dalian
Chongqing
Hangzhou
Harbin
Kunming
Nanjing
Ningbo
Qingdao
Shenzhen
Tianjin
Wuhan
Xiamen
Xian
Zhuhai
www.export.govwww.export.gov 1-800-USA-TRADE1-800-USA-TRADE
The U.S. Commercial Service has approximately 125 Commercial Service officers and trade specialist living and working in China.
You’ll find us in:
The U.S. Commercial Service has approximately 125 Commercial Service officers and trade specialist living and working in China.
You’ll find us in:
We have trade experts on the ground in China who can help you succeed
We have trade experts on the ground in China who can help you succeed
Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenyang Chengdu Hong Kong