Www.environment.gov.au/soe SoE 2011 – Atmosphere Chapter - Overview This presentation is one of a...

www.environment.gov.au/soe

SoE 2011 – Atmosphere Chapter - Overview

This presentation is one of a series of Australia State of the Environment 2011 (SoE 2011) presentations given by the SoE Committee members and departmental staff following the release of the SoE 2011.

This material is provided as an overview and the full report should be referred to for understanding the context of this information.

For more information please refer to:http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/indext.htmlOr contact the SoE team via email:[email protected]


New cover page

Presentation on SoE 2011 Atmosphere ChapterPhoto: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft


State of the Environment reporting

A report on the Australian environment must be tabled in Parliament every five years

No current regulations regarding scope, content or process

All reports so far written by independent committees


Purpose of SoE 2011

Provide relevant and useful information on environmental issues to the public and decision-makers...

… to raise awareness and support more informed environmental management decisions …

… leading to more sustainable use and effective conservation of environmental assets.


State of the Environment 2011 Committee

Chair

Tom Hatton (Director, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country)

Members

Steven Cork (research ecologist and futurist)

Peter Harper (Deputy Australian Statistician)

Rob Joy (School of Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT)

Peter Kanowski (Fenner School of Environment & Society, ANU)

Richard Mackay (heritage specialist, Godden Mackay Logan)

Neil McKenzie (Chief, CSIRO Land and Water)

Trevor Ward (marine and fisheries ecologist)

Barbara Wienecke – ex officio (Australian Antarctic Division, DSEWPaC)


What’s new in 2011?

Improved relevance to decision makers

More detailed information

Discussion of the major drivers of change

Wide range of credible resources used in the analyses

Report-card style assessments of condition, pressures and management effectiveness

Discussions of current resilience and future risks

Outlooks


Quality and credibility

Independence – written by an independent committee with relevant expertise, tasked with advocating for ‘accurate, robust and meaningful environmental reporting and identification of policy issues, but not for any particular policy position’

Authors sought best available evidence from credible sources

Extensive consultation

Workshops to determine consensus in expert opinion where evidence low

Transparency about quality of evidence and level of consensus

Peer reviewed (47+ reviewers of chapters and supplementary materials)


SoE 2011 Products

Full report – hard copy and online

Summary with 17 headlines Nine theme chapters – each with key findings Report cards

In-Brief – hard copy and online

50 page summary of full report

Additional online materials

Commissioned reports Workshop reports Additional tables and figures Peer review information


Assessment summaries in the report


Drivers chapter – context for rest of SoE

How are a changing climate, population growth and economic growth creating pressures on our environment?


SoE 2011 Headlines

17 headlines in

summary chapter

give a high level

overview of the

big issues


Key Findings (in theme chapters)

‘key findings’

give an

overview of

more specific

conclusions

for each

theme


What is the general state of the environment? Much of Australia is in good condition shape or improving

Wind erosion has decreased

Some major threats to vegetation cover are lessening

Water consumption has fallen considerably in recent years

Many urban air pollutants are on the decline

Use of public transport is on the rise

Other parts are in poor condition or deteriorating The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing billions of tonnes of ice a year

Soil acidification and pests and weeds are affecting large areas of the continent

Our natural and cultural heritage continues to be threatened


Drivers of environmental change

The principal drivers of pressures on Australia’s environment—and its future condition—are climate variability and change, population growth and economic growth

It is likely that we are already seeing the effects of climate change in Australia

The Australian economy is projected to grow by 2.7% per year until 2050

Under the base scenario, Australia’s population of 22.2 million people in 2010 is projected to grow to 35.9 million by 2050

We have opportunities to decouple population and economic growth from pressure on our environment


Persistent pressures on our environment

Past decisions and practices have left ongoing impacts on our environment

Introduction of feral animals and weeds

Land clearing

Pollution

Unsustainable water resource management

Intense harvest of fish stocks

Lack of integrated and supported management

Our changing climate, and growing population and economy, are now confronting us with new challenges


About the atmosphere chapter in SoE 2011:

What it is: a two part report, the first looking at the state of climate and climate change, and the second at ambient air quality and other atmospheric issues

A 122 page assessment of state and trends, pressures, risks and resilience, management effectiveness and outlooks for Australia’s atmosphere

Includes over 65 figures, tables and images, 11 summary assessment tables, and more than 200 references


Key findings

Earth is warming

Large step-changes in climate may occur

It is likely we are already seeing changes in Australia’s variable climate

Major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed nationally and internationally

We will need both a national approach and approaches at the state and territory level to mitigate and adapt to climate change


Key findings continued...

Despite the success of the Montreal Protocol in controlling ozone depleting substances (ODSs), depletion of stratospheric ozone will continue for some decades.

Ambient air quality in Australia’s major urban centres is generally good, but the impact of air quality on health is still a matter of serious concern.


Earth is warming


State of Australia’s climate: temperature changes 1970–2010


State of Australia’s climate: rainfall changes 1970–2010


The millennium drought: rainfall deficiencies 1 April 1997–31 March 2010


.....and the drought breaks: rainfall from 1 March 2010 to 28 February 2011


Pressures affecting Australia’s climate

“Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006


Pressures affecting Australia’s climate: GHGs


Greenhouse gas emissions per person


Fuel mix contributing to total primary energy supply, 2008


Effects of climate change on human health


Vulnerability to climate change aggregated for key sectors in the Australia

and New Zealand region, allowing for current coping range and adaptive

capacity


Assessment summary — pressures affecting Australia’s climate


Assessment summary — effectiveness of climate change management


Resilience of Australia’s climate

Significant global climate change has typically occurred over thousands of years, rather than over decades or centuries

The scale of human activities is now challenging Earth’s short-term resilience and driving change in the global climate at rates unprecedented in recent geological history

In the context of its highly developed economy and robust system of governance, Australia is well placed to adapt to climate change BUT

Australia is significantly vulnerable at relatively low levels of temperature rise in key areas


Risks to Australia’s climate

Warmer and drier conditions over much of southern Australia are likely to lead to reduced soil moisture

Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, heatwaves and fires, are likely to increase in frequency and/or severity


Current and emerging risks to Australia’s climate


Australia’s capacity to adapt

Our capacity to adapt to a changing climate will depend on:

the rate of change

the degree of exposure to the effects of change, which will vary geographically and from sector to sector, and between different groups in society

the strength and diversity of the economy

our capacity to innovate and to change our behaviour

our ability to expand our knowledge base and apply that knowledge in planning and decision-making

a willingness to accept uncertainty and not to use it as a reason for postponing necessary action.


Ambient air quality and other atmospheric issues

Part two of the atmosphere chapter deals with aspects other than climate:

stratospheric ozone

ambient air quality

indoor air quality


Stratospheric ozone: state and trends

“..the atmospheric abundances of nearly all major Ozone

Depleting Substances that were initially controlled

under the Montreal Protocol are declining.

Nevertheless, ozone depletion will continue for many

more decades because several key ODSs last a long

time in the atmosphere after emissions end”

(World Meteorological Organisation Scientific assessment of Ozone depletion, 2010)


Effect of the Montreal Protocol on levels of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere


Depth of the stratospheric ozone layer: the ozone hole over Antarctica


State and trends of Australia’s atmosphere – ambient air quality

The main focus of public concern over air pollution is its short-term and long-term effects on human health

Urban air pollution is a significant cause of death and illness in the community (one estimate of close to 3000 deaths due to urban air pollution in 2003)

Two-thirds of these deaths were attributable to long-term exposure to air pollutants, with the elderly most affected.

A range of adverse health effects is associated with air pollution


Causes of approx 3000 deaths attributed to long-term exposure to urban air pollution, 2003


Health effects and populations at risk from air pollutants


National air quality standards

In 1998, the Australian and state and territory governments adopted a set of national air quality standards—the National Environment Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure (AAQ NEPM).

Standards cover the six most common air pollutants (‘criteria pollutants’)—carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, lead and particulate matter smaller than 10 micrometres (PM10), which can be inhaled directly into the lungs (since expanded to include fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5)


The air quality index


Applying a graded report-card approach to Australia’s urban air quality (example)


Pressures affecting stratospheric ozone, ambient air quality and indoor air quality: an assessment


Management effectiveness: stratospheric ozone

Good understanding of the issues. Management considered very effective.

Trend

Planning, inputs and processes to manage ozone depleting substances all rated very effective.

Trend

Outputs and outcomes of management to control ODSs considered very effective.

Trend


Management effectiveness: pollution

Management of industrial point sources, diffuse motor vehicular sources is rated very effective

Management of diffuse commercial and domestic sources is rated effective

Management of indoor air quality and of diffuse pollution from planned burning is considered partially effective, planning around indoor air quality is rated ineffective

Recent trends for management of atmospheric pollution are all rated

stable

or improving


Resilience of Australia’s atmosphere

Our urban airsheds are highly resilient, air quality returning to normal as local conditions change

BUT

Human resilience to the effects of prolonged or recurring exposure to air pollutants is limited


Current and emerging risks to Australia’s atmosphere for stratospheric ozone, ambient and indoor air quality


Outlook for Australia’s atmosphere: direct effects of pressures on climate

By 2030, projections show average temperatures rising by 0.6–1.5ºC, additional to the existing rise of around 0.7ºC since 1960

By 2070, if growth in GHG emissions continues in line with past trends, projected warming will be in the range of 2.2–5.0ºC

Southern Australia is likely to experience reduced winter rain, and spring rainfall declines in southern and eastern areas. In south-west Western Australia, reductions in autumn rainfall are likely, together with the existing decline in winter rain. Northern Australia is likely to experience an increase in annual and summer rainfall


Outlook for Australia’s atmosphere: stratospheric ozone, ambient and indoor air quality

Thanks to the Montreal Protocol’s influence in controlling ozone depleting substances, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 benchmark levels by around mid-century

The outlook for Australia’s urban air quality is generally good

There are limited Australian data on which to assess the outlook for indoor air quality, but some grounds for suggesting an improving trend


Other SoE 2011 content related to Atmosphere

Atmosphere and climate have links to all other themes in SoE 2011, but climate change in particular is recognised as a principle driver of Australia’s environment


Intentions and impacts of SoE 2011...

Based on available information and expert opinion drawn from sources that are referenced in the report

Was designed to raise awareness and assist decision-makers

Highlights current issues that will require management responses to influence projected trends

Provides critical information, but can support change only if decision-makers consider and use it

www.environment.gov.au/soePhoto: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft

For more information email: [email protected]

To order copiesemail: [email protected]

phone: 1800 803 772 or read it online: www.environment.gov.au/soe

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