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SoE 2011 – Antarctic chapter overview

This presentation is one of a series of Australia State of the Environment 2011 (SoE 2011) report presentations given by SoE Committee members and departmental staff following the release of the SoE 2011 report.

This material was developed as part of an oral presentation. The full report should be referred to for understanding the context of this information.

For more information please refer to:http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/index.htmlOr contact the SoE team via email:soe@environment.gov.au

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New cover page

Presentation – SoE 2011 Antarctic chapter overviewPhoto: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft

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State of the Environment reporting

A report on the Australian environment must be tabled in Parliament every five years

No current regulations regarding scope, content or process

All reports so far written by independent committees

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Purpose of SoE 2011

Provide relevant and useful information on environmental issues to the public and decision-makers...

… to raise awareness and support more informed environmental management decisions …

… leading to more sustainable use and effective conservation of environmental assets.

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State of the Environment 2011 Committee

Chair

Tom Hatton (Director, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country)

Members

Steven Cork (research ecologist and futurist)

Peter Harper (Deputy Australian Statistician)

Rob Joy (School of Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT)

Peter Kanowski (Fenner School of Environment & Society, ANU)

Richard Mackay (heritage specialist, Godden Mackay Logan)

Neil McKenzie (Chief, CSIRO Land and Water)

Trevor Ward (marine and fisheries ecologist)

Barbara Wienecke – ex officio (Australian Antarctic Division, DSEWPaC)

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What’s new in 2011?

Improved relevance to decision makers

More detailed information

Discussion of the major drivers of change

Wide range of credible resources used in the analyses

Report-card style assessments of condition, pressures and management effectiveness

Discussions of current resilience and future risks

Outlooks

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Quality and credibility

Independence – written by an independent committee with relevant expertise, tasked with advocating for ‘accurate, robust and meaningful environmental reporting and identification of policy issues, but not for any particular policy position’

Authors sought best available evidence from credible sources

Extensive consultation

Workshops to determine consensus in expert opinion where evidence low

Transparency about quality of evidence and level of consensus

Peer reviewed (47+ reviewers of chapters and supplementary materials)

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SoE 2011 Products

Full report – hard copy and online

Summary with 17 headlines Nine theme chapters – each with key findings Report cards

In-Brief – hard copy and online

50 page summary of full report

Additional online materials

Commissioned reports Workshop reports Additional tables and figures Peer review information

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Assessment summaries in the report

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Drivers chapter – context for rest of SoE

How are a changing climate, population growth and economic growth creating pressures on our environment?

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SoE 2011 Headlines

17 headlines in

summary chapter

give a high level

overview of the

big issues

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Key Findings (in theme chapters)

‘key findings’

give an

overview of

more specific

conclusions

for each

theme

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What is the general state of the environment? Much of Australia is in good condition shape or improving

Wind erosion has decreased

Some major threats to vegetation cover are lessening

Water consumption has fallen considerably in recent years

Many urban air pollutants are on the decline

Use of public transport is on the rise

Other parts are in poor condition or deteriorating The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing billions of tonnes of ice a year

Soil acidification and pests and weeds are affecting large areas of the continent

Our natural and cultural heritage continues to be threatened

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Drivers of environmental change

The principal drivers of pressures on Australia’s environment—and its future condition—are climate variability and change, population growth and economic growth

It is likely that we are already seeing the effects of climate change in Australia

The Australian economy is projected to grow by 2.7% per year until 2050

Under the base scenario, Australia’s population of 22.2 million people in 2010 is projected to grow to 35.9 million by 2050

We have opportunities to decouple population and economic growth from pressure on our environment

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Persistent pressures on our environment

Past decisions and practices have left ongoing impacts on our environment

Introduction of feral animals and weeds

Land clearing

Pollution

Unsustainable water resource management

Intense harvest of fish stocks

Lack of integrated and supported management

Our changing climate, and growing population and economy, are now confronting us with new challenges

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About the Antarctic environment chapter

101 pages

30 figures and tables

15 assessment tables

8 case studies

234 references

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Key findings

The ozone hole has largely protected East Antarctica from global warming

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at its coastal fringes

Major regional changes are occurring in Antarctic sea ice coverage

The Southern Ocean is getting warmer

Increased acidification of the Southern Ocean can affect the base of Antarctic food webs

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Key findings

Antarctic vertebrates are highly specialised; capacity to adapt to climate change is unknown

The terrestrial ecosystems are changing

The pressure of human activities is increasing

The natural heritage of Macquarie Island has suffered under the impact of introduced species, but a large-scale eradication program is underway

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Introduction

Antarctica covers an area of about 13.8

million km2, with diverse ecosystems and

habitats, and a unique assemblage of

species

It is the earth’s coldest, highest, windiest,

and driest continent

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are

key drivers of Earth’s oceanic and

atmospheric systems

The Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT)

makes up 42% of the continent

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Introduction

The Antarctic Treaty and Antarctic Treaty System provide the framework for

governance of the Antarctic region

The AAT is administered by the Australian

Antarctic Division of DSEWPaC

Australia maintains a permanent presence

with 3 continental stations, a station at

Macquarie Island and temporary field stations

The Antarctic chapter focuses on the AAT,

incl. the subantarctic islands and Southern

Ocean

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State and trends

Antarctica is showing clear signs of climate change, esp. on

the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have risen by

5oC over the last 50 years.

Slower rate of change in East Antarctica.

Effects include:

Continental ice sheet is getting smaller

Reduced duration of annual sea ice

Increased ocean acidification

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State and trends – Continental ice sheet is getting smaller

Ice mass changes for entire Antarctic ice sheet (2002-2009)

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State and trends – reduced duration of annual sea ice

Trend map of Antarctic annual sea ice duration (days/year)

Yellow = basically unchangedGreen = up to 3 days lessPurple = up to 6 days less

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State and trends – increased ocean acidification

Global monthly mean CO2

concentration (2007-2011)

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State and trends – other effects of climate change

Incursions of alien species into the region, e.g. King crab (Paralomis elongata), and competition with natives

Changes in veg. communities, e.g. Antarctic bryophytes:

well-developed community moribund bryophytes

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State and trends - vertebrates

Antarctic species are well adapted to Antarctic conditions; capacity to adapt to climate change is unknown

Subantarctic islands have a legacy of introduced species with high impact, e.g. rabbits on Macquarie Island

Some populations of seals and penguins that were slaughtered in the late 19th/early 20th centuries have recovered

Greatest threat to seabirds is probably IUU fishing

Most whale species visiting the Southern Ocean are on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

Photo: Nick Rains

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State and trends – natural heritage

Australia’s two subantarctic island groups (Heard/McDonald

Islands, and Macquarie Island) were added to the World

Heritage List in 1997, and the National Heritage List in 2007

Australia also manages 11 Antarctic Specially Protected Areas,

and 2 Antarctic Specially Managed Areas

all are currently assessed as being in ‘Good’ condition, except for

Macquarie Island, which is ‘Poor’ but improving

State and trends – historic heritage assessment summary

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Pressures affecting the Antarctic environment

Antarctica is changing at an increasing rate due to global warming, esp. West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have risen by 5oC over the last 50 years

Slower change in East Antarctica, though rate expected to increase

Resulting increases in temperature and ocean acidification affecting ecosystems; capacity to adapt unknown

In certain regions, snow fall is being replaced by rain, altering ecosystems

Extreme weather events likely to increase in frequency and perhaps intensity as planet warms

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Pressures affecting the Antarctic environment

Human activities in closer proximity:

ca. 53 000 people visited continent in 2010-11 ca. 4000 people work on continent each year, on existing research

bases (4 bases are Australian) New research stations being built Tourism growing annually Visits lead to: — erosion, disturbance of habitats and wildlife

— pollution, introductions of invasive species Commercial fishing esp. of krill IUU fishing a significant problem Pollution elsewhere affects Antarctica

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Pressures affecting the Antarctic environment Historic heritage – assessment summary

“The Antarcticincreasingly will serve asa barometer of changeand an indicatorof human impactelsewhere in the globe”

Tony Press, Antarctica andthe future, in The Antarctic:past, present and future,Julia Jabour-Green andMarcus Haward eds, 2001

An iceberg and new sea ice, AntarcticaPhoto by Doug Thost

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Management effectiveness The main activities in Antarctica are:

research & conservation

infrastructure

commercial tourism & fisheries

other activities e.g. private expeditions

Management is regulated through the Antarctic Treaty and CCAMLR (the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources).

The Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) administers Australia’s Antarctic program.

Antarctic research in Australia provides a foundation for management activities.......

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Some of the research.....

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Management effectiveness

Achievements by Australia include:

participation in international forums of the Antarctic Treaty System

development of strategy for Antarctica’s Future Environmental Challenges

reviews and environmental assessments of research facilities of other countries

a leading role in discussions to improve conservation of Antarctic marine living resources (as part of CCAMLR)

e.g. reducing IUU fishing, and the pursuit of sustainable fishing practices that minimise seabird bycatch……

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Management effectiveness – case study

Commercial longline fishing operations killed tens of 1000s of sea birds every year

Since 2002, ca. 40 000 white-chinned petrels killed on longlines set in the southern Indian Ocean

Birds are attracted by the bait, become hooked, and drown

Scientists, policy makers and industry worked together, developing heavier, integrated weight longlines that sink much faster, greatly reducing seabird mortality

Mortality of white-chinned petrels down 95%

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Management effectiveness – case study

Mortality of birds in a 2002-2003 study

(Robertson et al. 2006)

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Management effectiveness – assessment summary

This summarises and assesses:

understanding of the issue(s)

planning

inputs

processes, and

outputs and outcomes

World Heritage and protected areas - assessed as ‘Effective’ or

‘Very effective’, all with a trend

Photo by Graham Robertson

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Management effectiveness – assessment summary

Land use and management

Effective, most are

Adaptation to climate variability and change

Effective or Partially effective, all are

Pests and invasive species management

Effective or Very effective, most are

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Resilience

Organisms and ecosystems in Antarctica have evolved to cope with severe natural conditions

However, their level of adaptability to human-induced change or resilience is complex and difficult to measure

Therefore, difficult to predict how future climate change will impact Antarctic ecosystems and species (limited information)

Several components are changing rapidly (e.g. temperature, acidification), and there is limited information on:

possible interactions of these components whether these changes are overwhelming the adaptive capacity

of biological and physical systems

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Risks

Key risks to the Antarctic environment are due to human activities,

incl. global population, economic pressures, and the effects of

climate change

While management can mitigate

many of the population/economic

impacts, climate change will be

the main and uncontrollable driver

of change Antarctic expeditioner (Greg Hodge) framed by a crevassePhoto: Doug Thost

Current and emerging risks – assessment summary

Almost certain

Current and emerging risks – assessment summary

Catastrophic

Current and emerging risks – assessment summary

Almost certain Catastrophic

Current and emerging risks – assessment summary

Almost certain Catastrophic

Likely Catastrophic

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Outlook for the Antarctic environment

At present, Antarctica is still in relatively good condition

However, the existing pressures on the continent and Southern Ocean will increase

Climate change processes will likely alter the physical Antarctic environment in our lifetime; species must adapt or face extinction

With so many risks, climate change is a topic of intense ongoing scientific research and debate, but there are still many data deficiencies and uncertainties

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Other SoE 2011 content related to the Antarctic environment

Atmosphere – e.g. ozone layer, greenhouse gases

Marine environment – e.g. currents, marine jurisdictions

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Intentions and impacts of SoE 2011...

Based on available information and expert opinion drawn from

sources that are referenced in the report

Was designed to raise awareness and assist decision-makers

Highlights current issues that will require management

responses to influence projected trends

Provides critical information, but can support change only if

decision-makers consider and use it

www.environment.gov.au/soePhoto: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft

For more information email: soe@environment.gov.au

To order copiesemail: ciu@environment.gov.au

phone: 1800 803 772 or read it online: www.environment.gov.au/soe