www.ecn.nl

The global politics of CCSHeleen de Coninck

Scottish CCS centre, University of Edinburgh

25 March 2011

Outline of this seminar

Introduce the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands

A global roadmap on CCS in industry

• Introduction to the UNIDO/IEA initiative

• Preliminary results

Understand how CCS features internationally

• Theories of International Relations

• History of CCS in international politics

• Which positions to international organisations take, and why?

Conclusion

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Energy research Centre of the Netherlands

Petten Amsterdam-Sloterdijk

ECN Policy Studies

ECN Policy Studies provides knowledge and strategies that matter for a sustainable energy future

• Key in Dutch energy and climate policy, also active in EU and global energy and climate policymaking

• 65 researchers with backgrounds in engineering, economics, social science and environmental sciences

• Addressing energy and climate policy challenges using quantitative analysis and qualitative thinking

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UNIDO/IEA Roadmap on CCS in industry

With Tom Mikunda, Stefan Bakker, Rodrigo Rivera

Projected role of CCS

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

IEA ETP (2010)

Ca 50/50 industry and power

IEA roadmap on CCS (2009)

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Why this roadmap?

Industry produces about

40% of global energy-related CO2 emissions

Early deployment of CCS likely in industry, but policy attention going to (coal-fired) power

For deeper emission reductions, some industries have few alternatives than CCS

Biomass and CCS may be needed for negative emissions

Developing countries have potential but are often poorly covered in OECD-organised roadmap processes

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Sectors and technologies covered

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Sector Production processesHigh-purity industrial sources

Natural gas processing (onshore/offshore)

Ethylene oxide production

Coal-to-liquids (CtL) Ammonia productionIron and steel Blast furnace (pig iron) FINEX technologies

Direct reduction of iron (DRI)

The HIsarna process

Cement Kiln/calcination Post/oxyfuelRefineries Hydrogen production Fluidised catalytic cracking

Hydrogen gasification residues

Process heat

Biomass conversion

Hydrogen production from biomass

Black liquor processing in pulp and paper manufacturing

Ethanol production Synthetic natural gas

CCS in industry: relatively cost-effective

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Steps in a roadmap process

1) Assessment of current situation

3) Vision of the future

4) Gaps and barriers

5) Actors and stakeholders

2) Data, methods and assumptions

7) Actions and milestones

6) Identification concrete options

IEA data or not?

Abu Dhabi, Amsterdam,

Rio

Preliminary conclusions

Current findings confirm early potential for CCS in industry, also in developing countries

Biomass conversion, gas processing, fertilizer, hydrogen production

Possibilities in EOR but not to be overestimated

Huge data gaps, particularly

• Projections and costs

• Refineries, steel, biomass

Business and policymakers should move beyond “global carbon price” rhetoric and figure out concrete policy options

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Over to the politics...

UNIDO is the only UN initiative on CCS. Why interest in CCS?

• CCS part of sustainable industrial development

• Capacity development no-regret

• Opportunity to interact with oil industry

Funded by Norway and GCCSI (UK)

Stakeholder meetings hosted by Masdar, Shell, Petrobras

Differences between IEA and UNIDO notable:

• Focus on developed/developing countries

• Focus on policymakers/industry

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Understanding the international politics of CCS

With Karin Bäckstrand, Lund University

Theories of International Relations

• Realist

‑ National interests drive international collaboration

‑ E.g. economic or military interests

• Liberal-institutionalist

‑ There is a demand for international organisations

‑ E.g. role as neutral arbiter, bring down transaction costs, cooperation/coordination problems

• Constructivist (idealist)

‑ International organisations are norm-changing,

‑ E.g. through science

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Mapping international organisations on CCS

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Scientific organisations:

IPCC

Multilateral organisations: UNEP, UNDP,

UNFCCC, GEF, World Bank,

UNIDO

Fossil-fuel or energy-driven organisations:

CSLF, IEA, IEF, OPEC, Global CCS

Institute

1990 2000 20102005IEA

(GHG) 1st GHG Technologies Conference 2004: report “Prospects for CCS” 2009: CCS Roadmap

IPCC2002: Scoping meeting, Regina

2005: Special Report

2006: Inventory guidelines

CSLF 2003: Inaugural meeting, Washington DC

G8 2008: Gleneagles Plan of Action includes CCS

GCCSI2008: GCCSI announcement

2009: GCCSI start

IEF 2009 - 2010: CCS workshops, Beijing, Algiers

OPEC2006 & 2009: CCS (&CDM) workshops

World Bank

2009: CCS capacity building meeting, Washington DC

UNIDO2010: Kickoff Roadmap

industrial CCS, Vienna

~

UNFCCC 2006: Workshops CCS and CCS & CDM

2005: “Welcomes” IPCC Special Report

2010: CCS eligible in CDM

Science-oriented and multilateral

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Organisation name Topic area Primary aim CCS positionScience-oriented organisationsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate change Assess scientific and technical information related to climate change

Neutral. Considers CCS a mitigation technology but does not advocate CCS.

Multilateral organisations (UN and Bretton Woods)United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Environment Improve the environment globally

CCS is not considered. Focus is on energy efficiency and renewable energy.

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Development Help people build a better life

Not considered

Multilateral ctd.

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Organisation name Topic area Primary aim CCS positionMultilateral organisations (UN and Bretton Woods)United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Climate change Prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system

Neutral. Considers CCS a mitigation technology but does not advocate CCS.

World Bank Development Fight poverty through financing for economic development

Neutral. On-demand funding of feasibility studies or capacity building.

Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Environment Promote environmentally friendly technologies in developing countries

Not considered. No funding for CCS projects. Focus is on energy efficiency and renewable energy.

United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO)

Development Promote sustainable industrial development

Neutral. Facilitates but does not advocate, CCS

Fossil fuel or energy-driven

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Organisation name Topic area Primary aim CCS positionCarbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)

CCS Enable CCS through dialogue and study

Positive. Actively advocates CCS.

International Energy Forum (IEF)

Fossil fuels/energy Align interests of energy importers and energy exporters through dialogue

Positive. Actively advocates CCS.

International Energy Agency (IEA)

Energy with a slight fossil fuel orientation

Improve energy security for OECD countries; represents interests of energy importers.

Positive. Facilitates CCS through independent studies.

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Fossil fuel Represent interests of energy exporters

Positive. Currently does not politically advocate CSS.

Global CCS Institute (GCCSI)

CCS Facilitate demonstration of CCS projects

Positive. Actively advocates CCS.

Mapping the CCS positions

Passive

Active

Neutral AdvocatingWorld Bank

UNIDO

IPCC

UNFCCC

IEA GCCSI

CSLF

IEF

OPEC

UNDP

GEFUNEP

Development/climate Fossil/energy/CCS

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What functions can international organisations fulfil?

• Support for state and non-state interactions

•Management of substantive operations

• Procedures for elaborating norms

• “Laundering” (i.e., channelling money or resources through an independent organisation to “neutralise” it from national flavour) and pooling of funding

• Neutral provision of information

• Arbitration activities

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Information sharing

Awareness and capacity developing countries

Information provision, joint R&D

and studies

Regulatory development

Feasibility studies

Project financing

CSLF Meetings Workshops IEF Workshops Workshops IEA Publications Summer

schools (IEA GHG)

a/o Roadmap

and IEA GHG studies

Workshops, publications

OPEC Workshops Workshops GCCSI Meetings,

publications Workshops, programmes

Publications Publications Uncertain

GEF Small scale, bio-fuel

Small scale, bio-fuel

IPCC Through reports

Through Special Report

Special Report

Inventory guidelines

UNEP No activities UNFCCC In

negotiations Uncertain

(depends on CDM)

Uncertain (depends on

CDM) UNIDO Through

roadmap Through roadmap

Roadmap

World Bank

Programme under

development

Specific countries

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Understanding the CCS international landscape

Initially, CCS science-drivenConstructivist: IPCC determined the normAfter IPCC CCS was transferred to UNFCCC, but

Copenhagen and CDM discussions stalled progress

Strong fragmentation of the international landscapeLiberal-institutionalist: fragmentation and “regime

complex” possibility of evolving demand for CCS/climate change regime

Move from UN to fossil fuel/energy-driven organisationsRealist: CCS case of national security for fossil-fuel

exporting countries

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Understanding the CCS international landscape

Energy, fossil fuel and CCS-driven organisations: information sharing and capacity development

Driving countries: US, Australia, Canada, Norway (all large fossil fuel producers)

• CCS demonstration in countries: no pooling of funding

• GEF, World Bank and UNFCCC (CDM) only candidates for demonstration funding: all development/

Speculative: Real motives of these countries? Not to deploy and roll out CCS?

• Delay aggressive climate abatement policies

• While symbolically promoting CCS information sharing and capacity building

Heleen de ConinckECN Policy Studiesdeconinck@ecn.nl

Thank you!