Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer...

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www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China November 30 – December 4, 2009

Transcript of Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer...

Page 1: Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China.

www.bea.gov

U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and

Research Results

Brian C. Moyer13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts

Haikou, ChinaNovember 30 – December 4, 2009

Page 2: Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China.

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Motivation

Higher frequency industry data for business cycle and policy analysis

New price and quantity measures in a NIPA framework provide an industry breakout of quarterly GDP growth

Available shortly after the 3rd estimate of quarterly GDP from the NIPAs

New information to improve the NIPAs

Page 3: Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China.

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Why now?

Framework established through recent integration of BEA’s annual I-O and GDP by industry accounts Combined best available source data using

quality weighting Provided consistent measures of output,

inputs, and value added by industry Accelerated availability of annual I-O accounts

Higher-frequency source data now available Census Bureau’s quarterly surveys Bureau of Labor Statistics’ price indexes

Page 4: Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China.

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Overview of methods

Benchmarked to the annual I-O and GDP by industry accounts

Extrapolations of nominal output and value added based on: Receipts, shipments, and sales from the Census

Bureau Income-by-Industry data from the NIPAs Wage and salary data from the BLS

Estimates of final expenditures indirectly measured using “commodity flow” method Based on ratios of domestic supply International trade data from the Census Bureau Inventory data from the NIPAs

Statistics prepared in a balanced I-O framework

Page 5: Www.bea.gov U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and Research Results Brian C. Moyer 13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts Haikou, China.

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Overview of methods

Real value added based on double deflation, where output and inputs are deflated separately

Deflation of nominal output and inputs using: Producer price indexes PCE implicit price deflators International price indexes Implicit price indexes based on industrial

production indexes

Domestic and imported inputs deflated separately

Aggregation using Fisher formulas, including contributions to GDP price and quantity growth

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Research results

▪ Real value added for “All industries” tracks well with real GDP

▪ Industry composition provides good indication of: Direction of change Acceleration/Deceleration Growth relative to trend

▪ Results are sensitive to business cycle fluctuations

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Real GDP for “All industries”

Chart 2. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real GDP vs. Real Value Added for All Industries

2003:IV-2007:IV

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03:IV 04:II 04:IV 05:II 05:IV 06:II 06:IV 07:II 07:IV

Real VA for All IndustriesPublished NIPAs

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Case study: Wholesale trade

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Real Value Added

Real sales for Merchant Wholesale trade

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Real Value Added

Real sales for Merchant Wholesale trade

Quarterly Trends for 2007

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07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4

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Real Value Added

Real sales for Merchant Wholesale trade


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