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Context mining and integration into
Predictive Web Analytics
Julia Kiseleva (Eindhoven University of Technology),Supervised by:Mykola Pechenizkiy (Eindhoven University of Technology),
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Web Predictive Analytics
What is predictive web analytics?Web predictive analytics: • aims to predict individual and aggregated characteristics indicating
visitor behavior for purposes of understanding and optimizing web usage.
• Application:o Search engines o Recommender System
• Examples:o Computational Advertisement
• Predictive web analytics tasks:o Online shop’s recommendations;o Users’ next action prediction;o Users’ intention predicting;o Personalized search result page.
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Model L
Users web log
Historicaldata
labels
label?
1. training
3. application
X
y
X'
y’=L (X')
Formulations:① Classification② Regression ③ Clustering④ Scoring
labels
Testingdata
2. testing
Predictive Web Analytics
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User next action prediction
Historical data. Actions ={Search, Refine Search, Click on Banner, Product view, Payment}
Search Refine Search ?Click on
BannerProduct
View
What is next?
Session 1 Search Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
Running Example: users’ trail predictions
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Search Refine Search ?Click on
Banner Product
View
What is next?
Running Example: users’ trail predictions
Search
Refine Search
Payment
Click on Banner
Product View
1.0 2/3
1/3
1/21/4
Drop out
3/4
1/4
1
1/4
User next action prediction
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ContextWhat is context? – any additional information that
Why we need context? o enhances the understanding of the instance of interest, o helps us to classify this instance or makes predictions regarding its
behavior.
• Two major context types:o Explicit – stored explicitly or given by domain expert (location, OS,
Browser) o Implicit – hidden in the data. We need techniques to discover context.
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Taxonomy for explicit Context
Human Factors
Physical EnvironmentFactors
User CharacteristicsSocial EnvironmentIntent
Conditions
Infrastructure
Location
*Weather*Light*Acceleration*Audio*…
*Temperature*Humidity*…
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Environment/Context
Model L
Users web log
X'
y'
Historicaldata
labels
X
y
label?
labels
Testdata
Strategies:① ?② ? ③ ?④ ?
Context-Awareness in Web Predictive
Analytics
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Research QuestionsQuestion 1: How to define the context in predictive webanalytics?Question 2: How to connect context with the predictionprocess in predictive web analytics?
Context Definitio
n
Context Discover
y
Context Modelin
g
Context Mining:How define
context? Context Integratio
n
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Search Refine Search ?Click on
Banner Product
View
What is next?
Running Example: users’ trail predictions
Search
Refine Search
Payment
Click on Banner
Product View
1.0 2/3
1/3
1/21/4
Drop out
3/4
1/4
1
1/4
User next action prediction
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Local models
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Contextual Partitioning
• Approaches to create local models:o Horizontal partitions
Users from Europe
Users from South America
Session 1 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search
Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
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Contextual Partitioning
• Approaches to create local models:o Horizontal partitiono Vertical partition :
• Two types of behavior:o Ready to by – (Product View, Payment)o Just browsing – (Search, Refine Search, Click on
Banner) Session 1 Searc
hRefine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search
Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
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Contextual Partitioning
• Approaches to create local models:o Horizontal partitiono Vertical partition :
• Two types of behavior:o Ready to by – (Product View, Payment)o Just browsing – (Search, Refine Search, Click on
Banner) Session 1 Searc
hRefine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search
Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
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Context Definition
• Intuition about Context: change of user intentso User is looking for the producto User is ready to buy
Search Refine Search
Payment
Click on Banner
Product View
Intent: looking for product
Intent: ready to buy
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Context Discovery
• Context definition: change of user intentso User is looking for the producto User is ready to buy
• Context discovery – apply hierarchical clustering in order to maximize prediction accuracy
Search Refine Search
Payment
Click Product
View
Intent: looking for product
Intent: ready to buy
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Context-Awareness Integration
Predictive model(s)
Predictions
Training data
Context-awareness
Example: Seasonality
(winter, summer)
Example:Features set expansion
Example:Prediction adjustment
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Context Integration Example
Context:User intent
DATA
Contextual Categories
Individual Learners
Mapping G
Mapping H Context
Discovery
Ready to buy
Just browsing
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Context Integration Example
………………
Contextual features
DATA Environment
Contextual Categories
Individual Learners
Mapping G
Mapping H
Context Discovery
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Thank you!• Context identification and
integration it into prediction models• Accurately predicting users’ desired
actions and understanding behavioral patterns of users in various web-applications
• Personalization and adaptation to diverse customer need and preferences
• Accounting for the practical needs within the considered application areas.
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Summary• The main goal is to develop a generic framework
for context-aware systems for Web Predictive Analytics
• In order to archive this goal we need to answer the following questions:o How to define the context in predictive webanalytics?o How to connect context with the predictionprocess in predictive web analytics?
Questions?
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Research Methodology
Implementing CAPA framework
Developing CAPA framework
Online validation (A/B testing)
Internal validation
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Context-aware systems
Context definition
Context Integration Method
Application
Context-aware system
Recommendationsystems
Computational Advertisement
Information Retrieval
Normalization
Expansion
Classifier Selection
Classification Adjustment
Weighting
Domain Expert
Clustering
Contextual feature identification
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History of context definition and discovery
Context YearLocation 1992Taxonomy of explicit context 1999Predictive features vs. contextual
2002
Hidden context: (clustering, mixture models)
2004
Contextual bandits 2007History of previous interaction 2008Independence of predicted class 2011Two level prediction model 2012Focus on Context Discovery 2012 -
Tim
elin
e
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Research Goal • Our research aims to develop a generic
framework and corresponding techniques for introducing the contextual information in Predictive Web Analytics and accounting for the practical needs within the considered application areas.