WWF’s Energy Vision

© 2010, WWF. All photographs used in this presentation are copyright protected and courtesy of the WWF-Canon Global Photo Network and the respective photographers.

Adam White - Project Officer Climate & Energy Team WWF European Policy Office

•  WWF’s Global Energy Vision •  WWF’s Energy Vision for Europe •  WWF’s Vision for change

WWF’s Energy Vision

Why 100% Renewable Energy?

1. Climate - at least 80% less Greenhouse Gas globally by 2050

2. Conventional oil/gas scarcity - we need “4 times Saudi Arabia and 4 times Russia for 2030”

3. Threats of unconventional fuels - CTL, GTL, deep water oil, shale gas, tar sands - more than just carbon

4. Nuclear development - What to do with 100,000 tonnes toxic waste for next 10,000 years?

5. Equity - 1.4/2.7 billion people lack access to electricity/safe cooking energy

6. Benefits - No-regret technologies, cutting 573bn euro fuel import bill, jobs

CTL: Coal To Liquid GTL: Gas To Liquid

WWF’s Energy Vision

The Scenario - Principal Assumptions

1.  Conservation/efficiency with Best Available Technology

2.  Material efficiency with Best Available Technology 3.  Materials, products “on shelf” today 4.  Electricity used as much as possible 5.  Renewable Energy growth rates below ‘realisable’ potential 6.  End energy poverty Traditional Biomass 7.  No nuclear, no CCS (NB: Not addressing process emissions) 8.  Sustainable bioenergy e.g. no cropland, no undisturbed forests 9.  Accept ‘BAU’: Pop. growth, GDP, ‘activity levels’, fuel prices 10. Change ‘BAU’: Modal shift, diets

11.  Free technology transfer 12. Free electricity trade

WWF’s Energy Vision

CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage / BAU: “Business-As-Usual” / GDP: Gross Domestic Product

A global scenario (1)

The scenario’s model is now being adapted to produce

energy efficiency and renewable

energy targets for the EU27 for 2030

Demand and supply examined in 10 world regions

WWF’s Energy Vision

A global scenario (2)

SOURCE: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010

WWF’s Energy Vision

The changing shape of the global energy system

WWF’s Energy Vision

Reducing CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector by >80%

Global CO2-eq GHG emissions from the energy system in the scenario SOURCE: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010

WWF’s Energy Vision

Adapting WWF’s Energy Model for the EU A five stage approach:

1.  Starting point: the global model developed by ECOFYS for WWF’s Energy Report

2.  Test the model against actual progress 3.  Refine the model to the EU27 context 4.  Gather outputs:

a)  Overall energy savings and renewable energy targets b)  Renewable energy targets by sector c)  Energy savings targets by sector d)  Specific consideration of biomass

5.  Compare outputs to other similar reports

WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets

Based on modelling by ECOFYS

2. Testing the model

+15% Information descriptor

Can appear below

the numbers

WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets

Based on modelling by ECOFYS

ECOFYS  model  result  for  2010  

IEA  sta8s8cs  for  2010  

Global  total  final  consump8on  (EJ)   327  EJ   330  EJ  

RES  (EJ)   59  EJ   60  EJ  

RES  share  in  the  mix  (%)   18%   18%  

2000   2005   2010  

RES  Share  ECOFYS  model  results  –  EU27   7%   8%   12%  

Historical  RES  share  EU27  (IEA  2012)   8%   8%   12%  

Historical  RES  share  EU27  (Eurostat)   7%   8%   13%  

3. Refining the model

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WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets

Based on modelling by ECOFYS

Assumptions adapted for the EU27 context:

•  Population forecast •  GDP growth •  Buildings •  Transport •  Industry •  Non-biomass RE source potentials

The global model gives results for Europe as a geographic region, which are then scaled to the EU27

4. The EU27 2030 Results

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WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets

Based on modelling by ECOFYS

A comprehensive look at all the options?

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WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050

The threat of failing to save energy

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WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050

Biomass demand compared to sustainable production ceiling when all scenarios have the same final energy demand as the reference scenario

A window of opportunity for renewables

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WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050

No regrets infrastructure?

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WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050

Key sectors for more action

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WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050

Thank you

www.panda.org

© 2010, WWF. All photographs used in this presentation are copyright protected and courtesy of the WWF-Canon Global Photo Network and the respective photographers.

Adam White - Project Officer Climate & Energy Team WWF European Policy Office Email: awhite@wwf.eu Tel: +32 2 761 0427 Mobile: +32 4 9156 3416

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." (Albert Einstein)