WWF Japan's Energy Vision: Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan
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Transcript of WWF Japan's Energy Vision: Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan
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WWF Japan’s Energy Vision Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan Naoyuki Yamagishi Leader, Climate and Energy Group WWF Japan
3 February 2014
IISSEEPP –– GGoo 110000%% RReenneewwaabbllee CCoommmmuunniittiieess
© Global Warming Images / WWF-Canon
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“How can we achieve 100% Renewable in Japan?”
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We did our homework – Four studies to examine 100% RE in Japan
Part I Energy
Efficiency
Part II Renewables
Part III Cost Analysis
Part IV Power Grid
July 2011
November 2011
March 2013
September 2013
Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan
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A Relatively Simple Vision
2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
Reduced Demand Business As Usual
Nuclear
1. Cutting energy demand through massive energy savings
2. Phasing out nuclear 3. Increase the supply of RES
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“We need much more energy!”
Part I Energy
Efficiency
July 2011
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No, we don’t: We can halve the energy consumption.
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Final Energy Consumption in WWF Scenario
WWF BAU Historical
Final Energy Consumption will be reduced to about half of the 2008 level
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“Do We have Enough renewables in Japan?”
Part II Renewables
November 2011
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Yes, we have.
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MTOE
PV on vehcles
Solar Thermal
Biomass
Wind
PV
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
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Simulation of Electricity Demand-Supply 24 hours / 365 days
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GWh
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Simulated dynamics of hourly electricity supply (example of 3 days - May 23 to 25)
Geothermal Hydro Biomass Wind PV Discharging BAT
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“Isn’t is going to be ridiculously expensive?”
Part III Cost Analysis
March 2013
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Not quite. Maybe a bit in the first stage. But it pays off.
-5%
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Cost Ratios to GDP (5-year Avg per GDP)
GDP (Trillion JPY) CapEx raitio to GDP OpEx ratio to GDP Net ratio to GDP
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“Can Japanese power grid accommodate that much of Renewables?”
Part IV Power Grid
September 2013
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Yes, it can. If we invest in it early.
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A couple of things we need….
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We need to Aim for It. We need Targets
2020 2030 2040 2050 To 2008 -21.0% -33.9% -42.8% -51.8%
Targets for Energy Efficiency (Final Energy Consumption)
Targets for Renewables (% of electricity)
2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Share in Electricity excl fuel use 11% 29% 54% 81% 100% Share in Electricity incl fuel use 11% 32% 63% 87% 100%
Targets for Renewable Fuel and Heat (% of non-electricity energy)
2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Share in Fuel and Heat 1% 15% 38% 56% 73%
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Ambitious CO2 Emission Reduction
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Mt-
CO
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BAU Scenario
WWF Scenario
-25% -58% -83% -100%
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Also, we need to doubt our ordinary thinking.
Geothermal
Hydro
Biomass Wind
PV
Battery
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GWh
Hours
(example of May 23)
Fossil Fuel and Nuke Centric Renewable Centric
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World is what we make of it.
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Supplemental Slides – In case, you are interested.
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Electricity only – without heat/fuel use
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2008 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Wind
PV
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
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Electricity only – with heat/fuel use
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2008 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh Wind for fuel
PV for fuel
Wind
PV
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal