WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008 This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who...

WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who paid to attend the 2008 WTUI conference.Distribution to non-registered attendees is prohibited.

If your business has a need for market data or forecasting for turbomachinery industry, please contact:

Mark Axford 713 – 802 – 9654

[email protected]

Rob McNamee 678 – 393 - 9702

[email protected]

GT Market Review of 2007

WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008

Before We Begin…..

How many WTUI attendees feel that GT orders for 2007 were:

- Higher than 2006 ?

- Lower than 2006 ?

Axford Consultants LP April 2008 2008

GT Orders Summary - 2007

• Worldwide orders up 44% from 2006 from 48,827mw to 70,121

• Extraordinary level of orders from Saudi and other Middle East countries

• US Gas Turbine orders down 12% : 2006 = 6598 mw 2007 = 5801 mw

Axford Consultants LP April 2008 2008

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 1975 - 2007.

Reported Orders

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Worldwide USA

MW

Prepared by Axford Consultants LP April 2008

> 3mw unit size 1975-1989>10mw unit size 1990-2007

GT orders –Middle East Only 1980 - 2007.

Reported Orders

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mid East

MW

Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008


Gas Turbines – US Only 1980 - 2007.

Reported Orders

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

USA Mid East

MW




Reported Orders

0

10000

20000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

USA Mid East

MW



2000 -2001 bubble truncated for clarity

Since 2003 Mid EastGT orders 3X of US


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Reported US OrdersMW


>10mw GT unit size

2003 2004 2005 20072006

40% Orders annual growth in orders since 2003 mkt bottom

Prepared by Axford Consultants LP Apr 2008

12%

4%

27%

5%

11%

26%

15%

Africa

Australia

Europe

N. Amer

Latin Amer

MiddleEast

Asia

2007 Worldwide GT Orders70121 mw

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007. Reported Orders

>10 MW Unit Size

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GE Siemens -W Alstom Mitsubishi Other

Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

MW

Axford Consulting LP Apr08

36% 26%

44% 49%

27%

46%

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Frames Aeros

Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

MW

Axford Consulting LP April 2008

Aeros vs Frames

10%10%

90%90%

88%

12%

34%

90%

Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007.

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Frames Aeros Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

MW

Axford Consulting LP Apr 2008

Aeros vs FramesLess than 60 mw Only

40%51%

60%49%

57%

43%


13%

4%

29%4%

7%

28%

15%

Africa

Australia

Europe

N. Amer

Latin Amer

MiddleEast

Asia

2007 Worldwide Frame GT Orders61715 mw (Up 31% from 2006)

N. Amer Frame GT Orders - 2007

Axford Consultants LP April 2008

Customer Location GT Model MWSUNCOR ENERGY Ft McMurray, Alberta 4- GE 7EA 342

NORTHLAND POWER Thorold, Ontario 1 - GE 7FA 172

TRANS CANADA ENERGY Toronto, Ontario 2 - Siemens 501F 379

CFE Baja, Mexico 1 - Siemens 501F 198

UNION FENOSA Durango, Mexico 2 - Siemens 501F 396

FLORIDA MUNI POWER AGENCY Florida 1 - GE 7FA 172

WESTAR ENERGY Kansas 2 - GE 7FA 343

BESICORP-EMPIRE Rensselaer, NY 2 - GE 7FA 343

FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT Florida 3 - Mitsubishi 501G 747

GEORGIA POWER Georgia 2 - Mitsubishi 501G 500

REDDING CITY OF Redding, CA 1 - Siemens GTX100 47

HAWAIIAN EL Hawaii 1 - Siemens 501D5 118

CAITHNESS ENERGY Long Island, NY 1 - Siemens 501F 190

GREAT RIVER ENERGY Elk River, MN 1 - Siemens 501F 198

O&G INDUSTRIES Connecticut 2 - Siemens 501F 396


6%

4%

19%

10%

32%

7%

22%

Africa

Europe

N. Amer

Latin Amer

MiddleEast

Asia

2007 Worldwide Aero GT Orders8407 mw (up 52% from 2006)

30%

Australia

N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007GE Wins 1506 MW


Customer Location GT Model MWATCO POWER Alberta, Canada 1- LM60000 PD 42

EAST WINDSOR COGEN Ontario, Canada 1- LM6000 Sprint 47

EPCOR Alberta, Canada 1 -LMS100 103

ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE Yuma, AZ 2- LM6000 Sprint 84

SAN DIEGO GAS & ELEC Miramar, CA 1- LM6000 Sprint 42

J-POWER Pala, CA 2- LM6000 Sprint 84

LOWER CO RIVER AUTH Texas 4- LM6000 Sprint 192

AUSTIN ENERGY Austin, TX 2- LM6000 Sprint 100

CPS ENERGY San Antonio, TX 4- LM6000 Sprint 200

FIRSTLIGHT POWER Waterbury, CT 1 - LMS100 103

EAST KENTUCKY POWER Kentucky 2 - LMS100 103

CONECTIV ENERGY Cumberland, NJ 1 - LMS100 100

BASIN EL PR COOP Culbertson, Montana 1 - LMS100 100

TOPAZ POWER Laredo, TX 2 - LMS100 206

N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007Pratt & Rolls win 1422 MW


Customer Location GT Model MW

UNION GAS Ontario, Canada 3- RB211 MD 89

NEVADA POWER Nevada 24- FT8 648

STARWOOD-CALPEAK Midway, CA 4 - FT8 108

PUERTO RICO ELECTRIC Puerto Rico 8 - FT8 216

TAMPA ELECTRIC Florida 10- FT8 270

BP Alaska 1- RB211 MD 33

MONTGOMERY L'ENERGIA Lowell, Mass 1 - RR Trent 58

Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )Gas Turbine Orders by Unit Size

0

1000

2000

3000

Small Medium Large Jumbo56 - 125mw26 - 55mw 125 - 254 mw10 - 25mw

0

35%

15%

50%888

2024

2889

Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )GT Orders -Simple vs Combined Cycle

SimpleCombined

59%41%


Year 2004 - 2007 - US MarketGT Orders - Simple vs Combined Cycle

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2004 2006 2004 2006

Simple Combined

Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

Higher Gas Price = More Simple Cycle

So what’s the forecast for turbine orders

in 2008

Gas Turbines – 2008 Axford Forecast . Reported Orders

>10 MW Unit Size

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Non US US

US -5%, Non US - 10%

Axford Consulting LP April 2008 Data Source: McCoy Power Reports

Things To Think About • Will US Recession reduce Elec Consumption ? - Axford Opinion – Yes• Can Gas Turbines compete with: - “Clean Coal” with heavy subsidy - Mandated Wind & Bio fuels programs

• What if Plug-In Elec cars win 10 - 20% share

• Will Carbon Tax help or hurt GT business - In the US ? - In the rest of world ?

• Will US Gas Prices Stay stabile at $ 9 - 10 ? - On Btu Basis $100 barrel oil = $ gas


Comparative Cost of Various FuelsComparative Cost of Various Fuels

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Gasoline Diesel Crude Natural Gas Coal Nuclear

Key Global Fuels on a $ per MMBTU Basis

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

What if Natural Gas price was $ 20 ?


That’s all Folks!

Axford Consulting Lp April 2008

WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008 This Web posting is free for the personal use of persons who...

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