WTPVBRIEFINGWAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE LATIN AMERICA

OCTOBER 2017

IN DEPTH: THREAT TO FOOD SUPPLY CHAINS

ILLEGAL ARMED GROUPS IN COLOMBIA

2

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

Lead article: Dissident illegal armed groups continue to pose threat in Colombia 2

Recent events 3

In-depth: Threat to food supply chains 4-5

Global incidents 6-9

INDEX

COLOMBIA: DISSIDENT ILLEGAL ARMED GROUPS CONTINUE TO POSE THREATThe military on 2 October announced that 19 members of Organised Armed Group (GAO) Clan del Golfo had been arrested in the municipalities of Chinú, Lorica, Moñitos, San Antero and San Bernardo del Viento (Córdoba department). The development comes after Defence Minister Luis Carlos Villegas on 6 September said that operations against GAOs would continue, despite the 5 September announcement by leader of the Clan del Golfo Dairo Antonio Úsuga (alias ‘Otoniel’) of the group’s intention to surrender.

Úsuga on 5 September stated that the group was ready to surrender and suspend all illegal activities. President Juan Manuel Santos on the same day hailed the announcement which follows advances made on the peace agreement with the group formerly known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and the bilateral ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group that came into force on 1 October, and will last until January 2018.

In February 2015, police announced Operation Agamemnon, which tripled the number of officers (to 2,200) tasked with dismantling the Clan del Golfo and capturing Úsuga. So far in 2017, 678 members of the group have been arrested and seven have been killed.

The arrests highlight the government’s intention to continue fighting illegal groups despite ongoing negotiations. A joint announcement on 12 September by Vice-President Óscar Naranjo, Attorney General Néstor Humberto Martínez, and Justice Minister Jorge Enrique Gil Botero revealed that the government was exploring legal alternatives to allow the collective submission of GAOs into justice. Colombia’s penal code only allows an individual surrender for non-political criminal groups, but the initiative demonstrates willingness by the government to facilitate the groups’ surrender.

Dissident factions of GAOs will likely remain a threat in the medium term. Although the Clan del Golfo is Colombia’s largest GAO, its apparent willingness to surrender is unlikely to result in a reduction of the level of cocaine trafficking. Loose command structures suggest that Úsuga will be able to surrender a large contingent, but not all of the fighters under his command. Meanwhile, the government’s judicial proposal granting benefits to GAO members will likely be heavily contested by opposition groups.

The arrests are unlikely to signal changes in the security panorama for businesses, particularly in areas where Clan del Golfo operates, including Antioquia, Arauca, Caquetá, Cauca, Córdoba, Nariño, Norte de Santander, Putumayo and Valle del Cauca departments. Meanwhile, other GAOs will continue to carry out drug trafficking and extortive activities. While the Clan del Golfo will avoid directly targeting foreign businesses, clashes between rival groups or between groups and the security forces could generate incidental security incidents.

Pamphlets dispersed from helicopters as part of Operation Agamemnon requesting capture of Clan del Golfo members

3

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

RECENT EVENTS

At least three members of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) were killed in an ambush on 6 August in Churcampa (Huancavelica region) in the Apurímac, Ene and Mantaro river valleys region (VRAEM). Local media sources stated that remnants of the leftist Shining Path (SL) guerrilla group were behind the attack. According to local media sources, the attack took place in the early evening. One of the vehicles the officers were travelling in was set on fire, while the other was found with bullet holes.

The attack highlights a terrorist presence in the VRAEM. Despite various government operations aimed at weakening and destroying the SL since 2012, success has been mixed. The SL has been severely incapacitated and has lost a number of key leaders, but it retains the capacity and intent to carry out small-scale ambushes such as this, particularly within the VRAEM provinces of Cusco, Ayacucho and Junín where its remaining cells operate.

The terrorist threat is not heightened; attacks will remain sporadic and will primarily target public security forces (PSF). The SL remains focused on two aims; targeting the PSF (both to access their weapons and because they are perceived as a threat to the survival of the SL), and to obtain income from drug production and trafficking. Their knowledge of the territory and support from certain local populations within the VRAEM give members an advantage but the SL is unlikely to gain strength in the medium term as government operations against them continue.

However, the overall security environment in the VRAEM poses a threat to companies operating there. Companies that receive protection from state security forces face incidental risks from guerrilla violence, especially when armed security forces personnel are present at company working sites. However, the SL is likely to remain focused on its pursuit against vulnerable members of the PSF and on the drug trade (which is unlikely to affect legitimate business as drug traffickers actively seek to avoid attention from authorities).

INCONTINUING TERRORIST PRESENCE IN VRAEM REGION OF PERU

INARRESTS UNLIKELY TO REDUCE INDIGENOUS ACTIVISM THREAT IN SOUTHERN CHILE

Terrorism charges were presented against eight members of the Mapuche indigenous group in Temuco (La Araucanía region) on 24 September. The charges follow their arrest by the Carabinero police on 23 September over their alleged role in a number of violent attacks.

According to the Carabinero police, the arrests were made in connection with an arson attack in Los Ríos region on 28 August when 29 trucks were destroyed. Among those detained was one Mapuche leader and seven others who had committed a number of ‘terrorist acts’, which include the aforementioned arson attack and a string of attacks during 2017 in the Biobío, La Araucanía and Los Ríos regions. The arrests were part of ‘Operación Huracán’ which is aimed at pursuing those responsible for such attacks.

According to the 2012 census, the Mapuche indigenous group is the largest in Chile, and represents almost 10% of the population. The arrests are likely to generate a further divide between Mapuche sympathisers and opponents. The arrests will anger sympathisers who will see police actions as a witch-hunt and terrorist charges as excessive, antiquated and unreflective of the Mapuche cause. However, their opponents will likely state that the government is acting insufficiently to combat the Mapuche ‘threat’, and call for more heavy-handed approaches. Clashes are possible between the two groups in southern regions.

Mapuche-led violence in southern regions will continue in the long term, likely worsening in the coming months. Mapuche activists will likely conduct further attacks as a means of pressuring presidential candidates to prioritise their cause and protest against the latest arrests prior to November’s presidential election. Even if the successful presidential candidate takes their demands into account, no solution will be universally popular or fully solve demands for land restitution and for sustained dialogue to discuss Mapuche grievances.

Companies operating in areas with a significant Mapuche population will continue to be exposed to unrest and occasional violence. Attacks tend to be focused on clashes with government authorities and members of the security forces, arson attacks on public and private property, and property invasions. However, forestry, farming and hydroelectric projects will continue to be affected by Mapuche-led violence. Companies will also face operational disruptions by strikes led by affected groups (such as truck drivers) demanding the government acts to stem violence.

4

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

IN-DEPTH: THREAT TO FOOD SUPPLY CHAINSThe Knights of Lone Jihad, a litt le-known group that sympathises but has no official affi l iation with Islamic State (IS), on 3 September circulated a pamphlet online calling on its supporters to poison food products in supermarkets and other retail outlets in Western countries. The guide, entitled ‘First Method Poison’, is the fourth publication released by the Knights of Lone Jihad since 2015. Previous pamphlets by the same group have been widely shared online.

The pamphlet will not significantly increase Islamist extremists’ intent to tamper with food supply chains in Western countries. Other IS- and al-Qaida-affi l iated groups have previously sought to incite supporters to use easily available or homemade poisons and chemicals to tamper with food and water supplies, but we have recorded only a small number of such plots and no successful attack thus far. The current tactical preference is for targets that result in maximum visibil ity and publicity, primarily crowded, poorly guarded public areas associated with high human traffic.

Capabilit ies to carry out such attacks also remain limited among homegrown Islamist extremists. Even when they can be obtained relatively easily, poisons and chemicals are difficult to handle and store, increasing the likelihood of a plot being disrupted at the planning phase. Another challenge is ensuring that contamination has the intended effect. Given homegrown Islamist extremists’ l imited capabilit ies in Western countries, the focus will remain on low-tech methods, such as vehicles and edged weapons. Low-tech attacks are easier to carry out and more difficult for security services to detect and prevent.

A large-scale, sophisticated attack on food supply chains in Western countries by IS operatives remains an unlikely – though high-impact – scenario. IS is one of the few Islamist extremist groups globally to have demonstrated a capability and intent to conduct chemical attacks, previously limited to Syria and Iraq. Some IS operatives and foreign fighters originating from Western countries have direct experience in manufacturing and handling chemicals and biological weapons, but are closely monitored by authorities and most vulnerable to penetration by intelligence services.

Insider threat actors also pose an overall low terrorism threat to food and beverage supply chains. Insider threats – either infiltration by a terrorist operative or radicalisation of an existing employee – are an increasing concern, but the threat overall is low. These are likely to be motivated by a combination of workplace or personal grievances and extremist ideology. Companies in the food and beverage sector are not necessarily more vulnerable than other industries, and also typically have strict controls in place to ensure food safety during production and – to a much lesser extent – distribution.

Dairy products factory production line

5

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

PREVIOUS PLOTS

This is not the first time an Islamist extremist group has envisaged and called on its supporters to use poisons or other chemicals. The Cyber Caliphate Army (CCA), a pro-IS hacker group, in 2016 circulated a document titled ‘The Mujahedeen Poisons Handbook’ on the messenger service Telegram. The handbook provided instructions on how to manufacture homemade poison. Previously, al-Qaida in the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) in the eight edition of its digital English-language magazine Inspire (Fall 2011) said that the use of poisons or chemicals and biological weapons against population centres is ‘allowed and strongly recommended’.

In the most recent example of a poison plot in Europe, Kosovar authorities in July 2015 arrested five suspected IS supporters on charges of plotting to poison the main water supply for the capital Pristina. Three of the individuals were detained near the Badovac reservoir, which supplies 40% of Pristina’s water supply, while the two others were apprehended later. As a precaution, authorities temporarily shut off the capital’s water supply until they confirmed that it was not contaminated. However, details surrounding the alleged plot remain unclear and vague.

Rather than Islamist extremists, criminal groups are mostly responsible for recent incidents of food and water tampering in Europe and other Western countries (for extortion purposes). Animal rights groups also engaged in product tampering in the 1990s, but we have recorded few recent incidents.

Badovac, Kosovo

Inspire magazine

6

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

GLOBAL INCIDENTS

President Juan Manuel Santos on 4 September announced that the government had reached a temporary bilateral ceasefire with the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group. In a separate development, the group revealed (through a commander who was interviewed by Reuters) that it was responsible for the April death of a Russian-Armenian kidnap victim in Alto Baudó (Chocó department). The victim, who was kidnapped in November 2016, was killed as he tried to escape – the ELN previously claimed that he had escaped.

Early on 24 September, an explosion targeting a convoy of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) killed three peacekeepers and injured four others. The convoy was at a crossroads between Gao city (Gao region) and Anefis (Kidal region). The attack was not claimed. Islamist militant groups are active in Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal.

MALI

FRANCE

COLOMBIA

An unidentified man at around 13.45 (local time) on 1 October stabbed and killed two women in a public square outside the main train station (Gare Saint-Charles) in the southern port city of Marseille (Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur province). Patrolling soldiers shot dead the assailant. Authorities said that the incident was likely to be terrorism-related.

7

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

The authorities on 23 September deployed additional security personnel to Velana International Airport, which serves the capital Male. The development came after the authorities on 14 September arrested a local over alleged links with IS. They said that he was plotting a suicide attack in the country. Turkish authorities on 23 September arrested three Maldivians with suspected links to IS while they were trying to enter into Syria through Turkey. The UK on 25 September revised its travel advisory for the Maldives, stating that terrorist attacks in the country were ‘very likely’ and urged British nationals to be vigilant. Around 200 Maldivians are reported to be fighting alongside IS in Iraq and Syria, making Maldives the highest per-capita contributor of foreign fighters

MALDIVES

LIBYAAn unknown armed group on 18 September stormed the control room of the north-western Zawiyah oil refinery and ordered staff to stop pumping fuel through the pipeline to the capital Tripoli. In the afternoon of 19 September, Libyan media reports stated that the refinery had resumed operations following negotiations with the armed group.

8

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

GLOBAL INCIDENTS

Chile

AFRICA

AMERICAS

ASIA

At least four soldiers were injured on 23 September when a national army vehicle drove over a remotely detonated bomb near Djibo (Soum province). The vehicle was heading towards a camp, where unidentified armed men late on 22 September set fire to a security post, causing material damage. Djibo is the base of Ansarul Islam, a home-grown cell of the Islamist militant Ansar Dine.

Niger

Terrorism charges were presented against eight members of the Mapuche indigenous group in La Araucanía region on 24 September. According to the police, the members were arrested in connection with an arson attack in Los Ríos region in August when 29 trucks were destroyed, as well as a string of attacks during 2017 in the Biobío, La Araucanía and Los Ríos regions.

Bangladesh

The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) – Bangladesh’s elite counter-terrorism force – on 6 September raided a suspected terrorist hideout in the town of Mirpur, north-east of the capital Dhaka. A suspected militant leader belonging to the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh detonated explosives after the standoff with the RAB, killing himself and six family members.

AfghanistanThe Taliban and IS both claimed responsibility for an attack on 27 September on Hamid Karzai International Airport in the capital Kabul. It followed the arrival of US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the capital. The airport was closed following the attacks and scheduled flights were suspended.A suicide bomber on 13 September killed three people and injured 12 at a security checkpoint outside Kabul International Cricket Stadium while a cricket match was taking place. The Taliban denied that it had been responsible, and IS claimed the attack.

Chile

A protest in the capital Port-au-Prince on 12 September related to the budget involved traffic blockades and resulted in clashes between demonstrators and the police; multiple injuries and damage to buildings and cars were reported.

Islamist extremist group al-Shabab claimed two attacks in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland. At least four people, including three soldiers, were killed and five others injured on 24 September in an attack on a military vehicle near the Galgala mountains. At least 12 people were killed and 30 others injured on 1 September in a bombing at a market in Af-Urur town (Bari).

Somalia

A Spanish national volunteering for the International Committee of the Red Cross was shot dead on 11 September by a patient at a hospital in Mazar-e-Sharif. No group claimed responsibility. The Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack on 6 September on a NATO convoy near the US airbase at Bagram (Parwan province) after coalition soldiers distributed leaflets that were deemed offensive to Islam.

Four security force officers and a civilian were killed on 23 September, in a gun attack on the Al’gazna border post near Assamaka (Agadez region), approximately six miles (10km) south of the Algerian border. The motive for the attack remains unclear, but Islamist extremists, drug smugglers and bandits are active in the region.

Haiti

Police used tear gas and water cannon overnight on 28-29 September to disperse a protest in the capital Santiago over the fate of five imprisoned Mapuche indigenous activists, and 15 activists were detained during clashes on Avenida Libertador General Bernardo O’Higgins. Related protests took place elsewhere in the country during September.

Burkina Faso

The security forces on 9 September claimed to have thwarted a plot by the Islamist extremist group Boko Haram to attack locations in northern and central states and the capital Abuja. Nine people were arrested in connection with the alleged plot, which was intended to take place during celebrations of the Muslim holiday Eid el Kebir on 1-4 September.

Nigeria

Protests took place in St Louis (Missouri state) following the acquittal on 15 September of a former police officer in the 2011 shooting of an African-American man. The police made several arrests on 23 September when people protesting over the issue at the Saint Louis Galleria shopping centre refused to disperse. At least three people, including a police officer, were injured.

US

Afghanistan

Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) secessionist activists on 14 September attacked the residence of a local police commissioner in Abia state and the security forces responded with forcible measures, possibly including live ammunition.

Nigeria

The al-Qaida central leadership in mid-September released an online message titled ‘Burma Calling’ on the situation in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, where security force operations in recent weeks have reportedly resulted in serious human rights violations against the state’s Rohingya Muslim minority. Transnational and foreign Islamist extremist groups have a growing intent to target Myanmar and Myanmar assets abroad.

Myanmar

Police on 1 October arrested a Somali asylum seeker after violent attacks in Edmonton (Alberta province) on the evening of 30 September-1 October at the Commonwealth Stadium sporting arena and along Jasper Avenue in the city centre. At least five people were injured at the two locations.

Canada

Afghanistan

9

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

FrancePolice on 6 September arrested two men in Villejuif, a suburb around five miles (8km) south of the centre of the capital Paris. Upon investigation, police discovered materials used to produce the TATP explosive and arrested a further suspect the following day. Interior Minister Gérard Collomb on 7 September said that police were treating the investigation as a terrorist one.

Russia

A meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group, which is working to broker a political solution to the conflict, on 6 September was held to negotiate an exchange of prisoners. Ukrainian media since mid-August have reported two kidnaps of civilians by rebel forces from the Stanytsia Luhanska checkpoint in rebel-held eastern Ukraine.

IraqSeveral IS fighters early on 2 September attacked a power station near Samarra (Salahaddin province). They temporarily seized control of the facility and killed at least six people. The security forces recaptured the station several hours later.

IranThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on 13 September said that they had arrested a member of IS in Tehran. The group was reportedly planning a suicide attack on Shia religious ceremonies during the holy month of Muharram (21 September to 19 October).

www.controlrisks.com

Control Risks Online Solutions give you unparalleled insight into the many and diverse risks your organisation faces around the world.

Our wide range of risk analysis, in-depth research, incident data and forecasts helps you understand and evaluate the threats facing your organisation, develop a robust strategy and grasp opportunities with greater certainty.

From terrorism, kidnap, cybercrime, political unrest, sovereign risks, investment restrictions and corruption, our analysis ensures you are fully informed about the potential impact of global trends and events unfolding across all markets.

For more information on how Control Risks Online Solutions can support your business, please contact onlinesolutions@controlrisks.com

Make informed, confident business decisionsA HOLISTIC VIEW OF THE RISK LANDSCAPE

Counter-terrorism investigators on 3 October were questioning five suspects following the discovery on 30 September of an explosive device and gas cylinders in an apartment building in the Porte d’Auteuil neighbourhood (16th arrondissement) of the capital Paris.

France

The Moroccan and Spanish authorities on 6 September announced the arrest of a six-person militant cell linked to IS. Five were reportedly arrested in the suburbs of Nador’s eponymous provincial capital. The sixth was apprehended in the nearby Spanish enclave city of Melilla. The authorities said that the cell had been plotting large-scale attacks in both countries.

Morocco/ Spain

US-backed fighters announced on 20 September that they had captured around 90% of Raqqa, the de-facto Syrian capital of IS. The Syrian Democratic Forces forced IS out of at least five strategic neighbourhoods around the city, according to the opposition-aligned, London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). The SOHR said that IS has almost depleted its ammunition and food supplies there.

Syria

Police on 5 September arrested five men, four of whom are serving members of the British army, in relation to membership of a proscribed far-right group, National Action. Although police arrested the men on suspicion of planning to carry out terrorist actions, there is no indication that an attack was imminent.

UK

Regional media on 12 September reported that the security forces had foiled an IS plot to conduct suicide bombings against two defence ministry facilities in the capital Riyadh. Two Yemeni nationals in possession of explosive vests were arrested, along with two Saudi nationals suspected of having a connection to the would-be attackers.

Saudi Arabia

Telephoned bomb threats that began in mid-September prompted the evacuation of buildings across Russia. More than 100,000 people were evacuated from buildings between 10 and 14 September. The calls continued but no perpetrator had been identified by the end of September.

Ukraine

10

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list

Prepared by for

For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact:

GLOBAL RESPONSE

WHO ARE WE?

Hiscox Global Response encompasses insurance products for people, assets and trade risks for clients faced with the challenges of operating in a global economy.

By combining our specialist teams in Political Violence, Political Risk, Kidnap and Ransom and Personal Accident into one division we can efficiently deliver to our clients the insurance coverage they require to conduct business with confidence in challenging and complex territories.

WHO ARE OUR CLIENTS?

Our clients range from Fortune 500 companies to private enterprises and individuals, as well as the key executives and employees who work for these companies.

WHAT DO WE COVER?

Our policies provide insurance protection against:

Political ViolencePolitical RiskKidnap and RansomPersonal Accident

WHY HISCOX GLOBAL RESPONSE?

• Market leader with over 30 years experience in respective products.• Knowledge and experience allow us to consider and provide cover for a wide range of risks even in challenging territories and

unusual risk profiles.• Our claims team and service to clients are unparalleled in the market.• Expertise in wordings and contract drafting combined with our flexible approach to underwriting allows us to deliver bespoke

solutions to clients.• Through our exclusive relationship with Control Risks, clients can benefit from market leading analysis and crisis response

capabilities.

Victoria CardwellTel: 020 7970 2383Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, London SE1 2QGmartin.brown@controlrisks.comwww.controlrisks.com

Richard HalsteadTel: 020 7448 65791 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HXRichard.Halstead@hiscox.comwww.hiscox.com