WTI Spot Price

8/22/2019 WTI Spot Price

1/4

WTI Spot Price

by Eduardo PetazzeLast Updated: February 9, 2016

The international market continues with a structural oversupply of oil.Futures markets continue normal contango. Prices continue irreversibly depressed.

Our forecast for WTI for the period 201!2021, is between "#$0 %!bb& a'd 61$0 %!bb&, on average (6$6$/bbl lower than our previous estimate.orld oil consumption is estimated to grow !."! mbpd in #!% and !.&' mbpd in #!(.The global oil supply is e)pected to grow !.& mmbpd in #!% and .'* mmbpd in #!(.

Contents1) Summary - Forecast international prices of crude oil

2) Cushing, ! WTI Spot Price F" #$ollars per "arrel)

i% World Petroleum Consumption

ii% World Petroleum Supply

&) 'S Price Inde(es for Personal Consumption (penditures

i% *olution of the consumer price inde(

+) WTI Spot Price F" at Constant #2) $ollars

.) /iscellaneous

i% *olution of futures mar0ets - Commitments of Traders

ii% Impact of the o*ersupply of PC crude oil in price differentials

iii% Worldide ig Count

3otes4

Implications for the 'S mar0et

Impact of the re*aluation of 'S dollar in the international oil price

5ddendums4 World conomic utloo04 eal 6$P 6roth and Petroleum Consumption - 'pdate cto7er 21.

World Petroleum Supply 8 'pdate 9anuary 21:

1) Summary - Forecast international prices of crude oil

The following table shows the midpoint of the likely forecasts for price of crude oil in terms of balance between global supply and demand.

This tab&e has bee' updated

;ery important41. A crude oil price in the long run equilibrium is a set of values which prevents the historical low-cost production of OP! may be displaced

by marginal production "including in that category e#ploitation of oil over very deep water$ oil sands and unconventional oil%.&. The price forecast &'1()&'&& assumes the following OP! "e#-*ndonesia% crude oil "e#-condensate% production+

&'1, &./& mbpd 0 *ndonesia "'.(' mmbpd%

&'1( .& mbpd 0 *ndonesia "'.(' mmbpd%$ and increasing at least '.( mbpd from &'12 ) &'&&

&% On9anuary 1:, 21:the 34A and others lifted nuclear-related *ran sanctions Tentative outline of *ranian supply+

6 stable &&%>6 upward 12%>,.

The following table summari5es the average price forecast and its respective standard deviation+

This tab&e has bee' updatedThe possibi&ity that future )rude oi& pri)es )o*e i'to ba)+ardatio' it is esti*ated by - . 10-$

3ote4 The current strategy of OP! seeks to maintain its current market share.

5lso see4Could ussia and PC really stri0e a deal on oil?

#C3"C)

In 9an@1: ussia oil production as 1%AA m7pd, up from 1%A m7pd in $ecem7er

PCBs 21. World il utloo0

/ar0et Prices and 'ncertainty eport8 pdf, 12 pages#I5 8Fe7ruary , 21:)

Crude oil prices to remain relati*ely lo through 21: and 21#I5)

3atural gas prices e(pected to rise o*er ne(t to years#I5)

Commodity /ar0et /onthly 8 pdf, 12 pages#I/F 8 9an% 1., 21:)

Commodity /ar0ets utloo0 8 pdf, + pages#W", 9an% 2:, 21:)

2) Cushing, ! WTI Spot Price F" #$ollars per "arrel)

This tab&e has bee' updated3otes+

*n the short term$ under the current strategy of the leading e#porters of oil$ prices will continue irreversibly depressed.7arket is still controlled by the buyers$ vendors offering greatest differentials to maintain market shares.4peculation about change in the behavior of economic actors$ does not change market fundamentals.

5lso see4

il slumps percent ahead on e(pected '%S% crude 7uild, slodon fear#euters)

White Douse proposes E1 per 7arrel oil ta( to fund ne plan for 7uilding a 21st Century Clean Transportation System

man Country 5nalysis "rief#I5)

man=s crude oil output gros +> to &.Am 7arrels in 21.#Times of man)

man Crude il Prices 8 pdf, 1 page

Canada Country 5nalysis "rief#I5)

/6 nergy4oil sands plant maintenance#euters)

5l7erta oil royalty re*ie holds most rates steady industry relie*ed#euters)

"lame Canada for /a0ing the il 6lut Worse#"loom7erg)

ilsands indward%

On =an *, #!% +ranian oil on floating storage was ">,(& 1bbl 2?!,(#( 1bbl, as 7ancy @oins the FA fleet3

On =an #( B #', #!% oil on floating storage was "%,'(> 1bbl 2:>!>1bbl, as the Ainopa heads to -hina with '!(,*"! barrels3On =an !> B #%, #!% oil on floating storage was "(,('% 1bbl 2?!,>"> 1bbl3On =an !" B !(, #!% oil on floating storage was "&,'"> 1bbl 2:!,&*1bbl3On =an * B !*, #!% oil on floating storage was "(,! 1bbl 2?!,'%* 1bbl3On 4ec. (, #!& B =an. #, #!% oil on floating storage was "&,*> 1bbl 2?!,>!" 1bbl3On 7ov. !' B 4ec. % , #!& oil on floating storage was "*,##" 1bbl 2:!,>" 1bbl3

Future mar0et in a normal contango

9 reversal of the Cnormal contangoC futures market to Cnormal backwardationC could cause a strong impact on prices.

i% World Petroleum ConsumptionSee addendum on the last page of this or0ing paper

ii% World Petroleum Supply

7on:OP- supply will decrease by 0$6 *bpdin #!% and0$10 *bpdin #!(, from ?!.** mbpd n #!&+n the current price environment, only OP- supply has an annual growth of around !.* mmbpd from #!(.

Summary estimate of glo7al petroleum supply

Fu&& data by )ou'try at the e'd of this or+i' paper

These tab&es are updated

1 N +

il and gas sector 21&N1+ 21+N1. 21.N1: 21:N1 21N1A 21AN1 21N2 22N21

Total oil and gas e#ports "billions% ,/.?' ./' .' /2.,' ?.2' ,.' ,2.,' (1.&'

>O Oil Price ad@usted for *ranian year 1'.(' 2.' '.(' &.?' (.,' ,1.'' ,&.,' ,.''

Average oil e#port price "per barrel% 1'1.1' (?.1' /?.(' &.?' (.,' ,1.'' ,&.,' ,.''

!rude oil e#ports "in millions of barrels)day% 1.1 1.1, 1.&/ 1.21 &.1 &.&& &.&? &.2

!rude oil production "in millions of barrels)day% &.2 .'? .11 .(' /.'' /.&' /.' /./'

stimate

Pro@ected

Canada il production

#) 7pd ct-21. &$/',$1,' (/$?'$?/? $.&&

21+ &$&/$,'& 2&&$?&?$?? !!."$ 3o*-21. &$(?$& (1$2$,?' $.'#

21. &$//$?? 222$((&$(' >.$$ $ec-21. &$'$2'' (($,1($2'' $.#%

21: &$&1$1/ ?&&$(2$&'' *.># 9an-21: &$/$,'' (2$?1$,'' *.$>

21 &$2$1? ?/&$2,,$'' #.!> Fe7-21: &$/&$'' ($(&$'' >.*!

21A &$,&,$/'/ ?2$,($'' !.%( /ar-21: &$&2$''' (2$,2$''' ".(%

21 &$,1$&( ?,($(1$/'' $.'& 5pr-21: &$'2$''' ($&/'$''' ".(&

22 &$,($?(& ?(&$21($('' $.&* /ay-21: &$'/$/'' (($,,$/'' *.>*

221 &$,/,$(/' ?,,$','$&'' :$.%' 9un-21: &$/?&$/'' (/$((&$''' ".$#

Provisional estimate atest data

Own estimate Own estimate

I/F estimate 21& 21+ 21. 21: 21 21A 21 22

Oil production "mbpd% .' .1 ./ .2 /. /.? . .(

Oil e#ports "mbpd% &./ &. .1 . .2 /.' /.& /./

"alance # 7pd) 21 211 212 21& 21+ 21. 21: 21 21A 21 22 221 222

7on:OP- supply &!,*$> &!,&$$ ,$*! &*,%&! &%,$(' &(,"$' &%,((! &%,%(& &%,(*$ &%,>%% &%,'>$ &(,$'> &(,##"

OP- supply *%,((# *(,$*% *>,"!! *(,*## *(,#"* *>,&!( "$,#$( "!,#** "#,#(' "*,*$' "",*"! "&,*(* "%,"$%

>orld supply AA,A AA,.&: ,++1 ,& &,&22 .,2: :,A ,A ,1 1,1. 11,&21 12,+1 1&,:&

>orld consumption -22$1( -2?$1'& -?'$1 -?1$&(, -?&$//, -?$(?1 -?$1?? -?,$(2, -?2$// -1''$' -1'1$,'1 -1'$112 D7/9

"alance - -.:: 11 -&& A: 2,1&. 1, 1,121 ... 1& -2A -:+ D7/9

>,!!( >>,&'> '$," '!,$#> '*,#&* '%,!!( '>,!'" '>,*%' '',*%" !$$,!!* !$$,>&> !$!,(#& D7/9

4ifference :*( :%# :!$ :&& %' :!'! :!,#!% :"%! :*&& %# "%" ("& D7/9

#O) hich the non-PC supply .1,&A .1,. .2,&1 .&,:.1 .:, .,+ .:,1 .:,:. .:,& .:,A:: .:,A .,A .,22+5nnual Change 1,&. 12 .&1 1,:2 2,+2 1,&& -:&A -: .: 1&: 11+ 11A 12:

*%,*"> *(,(!( *',(* *',>* ",%%* "!,"'! "#,*!% "*,!*> D7/9

Pre. estimate , +ndonesia !,"# !,## '>' '*' '!! '"" !,! '>( '>> '>( '>& '>" D7/9

4ifference :! :!" *# :*& :!% :!"" :" ""* %#> >*! !," !,# D7/9

21 /'& &.% 2( ?/ 2' :*.% /' (2(

Bigeria 1$2'( 1$(/? :*.# 1$2& 1$2,1 $.& 1 $2,, 1$(2? 1$2'' $.% 1$?' &$'(

Datar ('? ,, :(.& ,? ,(& #.$ ,( ,(/ ,2' $.' (' (

4audi Arabia ?$(1 1'$1? ".' 1'$&? 1'$1&( :!.* 1'$1/ 1'$'22 1'$1'' $.! 1'$&'' 1'$&(

3nited Arab mirates &$(?/ &$?2( %.' &$22' &$22/ $.! & $22 &$2? &$?'' $.# &$?'' &$?&(

Eene5uela &$,2 &$, :!.$ &$,2 &$,& :$.* & $,2 &$/2 &$' $.! &$( &$1

il production #e(-condensate) &1,&2 &2,&1 "$0- &2,2+& &2,21: (0$1- &2,&+ &2,1A. &2,&: 0$#- &&,1& &&,+&

Call for PC oil 2,1A1 2,2: (0$#- 2,++& 2,.1. "$0- 2,&A 2,..A 2,&:+ (0$- &,:A1 &1,AA

*ersupply #secondary source) 2,12 &,21 #0$1- 2,A 2,1 (1#$1- 2,:.: 2,:2 2,: 1$1- 2,++ 2,:&

7PE@ dire)t )o**u'i)at io' "1,"2 "2,"1 "$0- "2,699 "2,C#9 1$- "2,6C "",1C" "",1#C (0$1- "",1"0 "",9"

7/ersupp&y 4dire)t )o**u'i)atio'5 #,!'# *,#'! &$.! *,#&% *,*"" :!$.> *,$*$ *,%#& *,('" ".( #,""' #,$%*

eal o*ersupply #on estimate) 12 1,21 1,09- 1,1:: 1,2.+ $#- + 1,.&. 1,. 11$0- &. -2:

$ata 7ased on direct communication to PC

$ata 7ased on secondary sources 8 , #!% *%.*" *%.'# (0$#C *>.!& *>.(" (0$60 "#.*% "#.!! 0$2#

=an !&, #!% *!."" *#.%" (1$20 **.!* *". (1$"9 *(.# *(.>> (0$6C

=an ##, #!% #'.'' *!.!* (1$1 *!."# **.!! (1$6C *&.* *%.#* (1$20

=an #', #!% **.(# **.%' 0$0" *&.* *%.!" (0$C" *'.> *'.%" (0$#6

Feb &, #!% *".! *#.'' 1$12 *&.%" *&.'& (0$"2 *'.%> ".!& (0$6

Dai&y )&osi' pri)e

!&." (.>' *.!# .(> :&.# :#.!' :!.'& :!.%* :!.*" :#. :.& . .& :.& :.&rent E T+ !%.*> !(. !.&( &.> *.%" :.>* .'' !.!! !.!( !. . !. !. !.& !.& !.%

/iidpoint price proection

/iidpoint price forecasts

Pro*isional es timate

12.2, 1?.'? &1. &.' &1.1( &'./& &1.' &1.?' &.?( &/.22 &.(1 &.& 22$11 #.!*

&.1 &&.12 &'.?( 1?.(' &'.2& 1?.&, 1?.,, 1?.? 1?.2' &1. &'.1? 12. 20$61 !.(&

1,.(& 1,.', 1.1& 1. 1/.?1 1.(& 1/.1( 1./( 1.' 1/./, 1.'' 11. 1$# !.""

1&.& 1&.'1 1/.,2 1(.1 1(.(& 1(.?& &'.1' &1.&2 &.2' &&.,? &.'' &,.1' 19$26 ".(!

&(.&, &?.( &?.2/ &.(& &2.(? 1.2& &?.(' 1.&, .22 .11 /./& &2.// "0$"0 #.%(

&?.? &?.,1 &(.& &(./? &2., &(.,' &,./ &(.( &,.&' &&.1( 1?.,/ 1?.? 2#$9# *.&(

1?.(& &'.(& &/. &,.12 &(.'/ &.& &,.?( &2.? &?.,, &2.2/ &,. &?./, 26$12 *.!(

&.? .2 .1 &2.1( &2.11 '.,, '.(, 1.( &2.1 './ 1.11 &.1 "1$12 #.*#

/.1 /.,? ,.(/ ,.( /'.&2 2.' /'.(2 //.?' /.?/ .&2 /2./( /.1 1$ &.>(

/,.2/ /2.1 /.1? &.?2 /?.2 ,. ?.'' ,/.?? ,.? ,&.&, 2.& ?./1 #6$9 %.#%

,./? ,1., ,&.,? ,?.// ('.2/ ('.? (/./1 (.'/ ,.2' 2.2? ?.'2 ,1.?, 66$02 &.">

/.1 ?.&2 ,'.// ,.?2 ,./, ,(./? (/.1& (&., (?.?& 2.2' ?/.(( ?1.,? 2$"2 !*.##

?&.?( ?.? 1'./ 11&.2 1&./' 1.22 1.( 11,.,( 1'/.11 (,.,1 (.1 /1.1& 99$# #'.(

/1.(1 ?.'? /(.?/ /?., ?.' ,?.,/ ,/.1 (1.' ,?./1 (.(& ((.?? (/./( 61$6# !*.>

(2. (,.? 21.&' 2/.&? (.(/ (./ (,.& (,.,' (.&/ 21.2? 2/.& 2?.1 9$0 ".(#

2?.1( 22.2 1'&.2, 1'?. 1''.?' ?,.&, ?(.' 2,. 2.& 2,.& ?(.1, ?2., 9$C (.%(

1''.&( 1'&.&' 1',.1, 1'.& ?/.,, 2&.' 2(.?' ?/.1 ?/.1 2?./? 2,. 2(.2, 9$11 (.&(

?/.(, ?.1 ?&.?/ ?&.'& ?/.1 ?.(( 1'/.,( 1',.( 1',.&? 1''./ ?.2, ?(., 9$91 &.#>

?/.,& 1''.2& 1''.2' 1'&.'( 1'&.12 1'.(? 1'.? ?,./ ?.&1 2/./' (.(? ?.&? 9"$26 !*.((

/(.&& '.2 /(.2& /.&1 ?.& ?.2& 1.1, /&.2( /.' /,.&& /&.2 (.1? C$69 %.(&1. &?.'? &2.&1 '.'' 1., &.?2 /.11 /.?( ., ,.& ,.( (.& ""$20 *.'

(.,/ 2.'/ 2./ 2.2, ?.&2 ?.(' ?.? /'.&' /'./ /'.(1 /'.?, /1.&& "9$62 !.!>

/1./& /1.,& /1.2& /&.'& /&.& /&./ /&., /&.2 /.' /.& /.// /.,/ 2$#" .(*

/.(( /.?' //.' //.1( //.' //./ //.( //.(1 //.2 /.'' /.1/ /.&2 $#1 .&

/.? /.' /.,1 /.(& /.2 /.?/ /,.'/ /,.1 /,.& /,., /,./, /,.( #$99 .*'

/,.,2 /,.(? /,.2? /(.'' /(.11 /(.&& /(.& /(./ /(. /(., /(.(/ /(.2/ $26 .*>

/(.?/ /2.'/ /2.1 /2.& /2. /2./ /2.& /2.,& /2.(1 /2.21 /2.?' /?.'' C$ .*&

td$ De/ 26$0 26$9# 2C$1 29$61 29$"1 "0$0# "0$6 2C$6 2$#2 2#$6 2#$1 2#$0 2$6

atest "preliminary% data

Provisional estimate

*nterpolated data

ight 4weet !rude Oil ">T*%


2/4

66bpd from #!&3.)ceptionally mild temperatures in the first part of winter in =apan, urope and the HA, along with weak economic growth in -hina,raIil, ussia and other commodity:dependent economies, reduced theroth i' or&d oi& de*a'd i' the =201#@ust ?!.*"

6mbpd JoJ, from ?#.!&( 66bpd JoJ in *0#!&./onthly 6lo7al Indicator efining /argins#spreadsheet file)5*erage crude oil import costs in C$ #/onthly il Price Statistics) 8 pdf, pages

World nergy utloo0 21. #3o*em7er 1, 21.)

Summary 8 pdf, 12 pages

Press elease- Presentation to the Press 8 pdf, 1. pages - Factsheets 8 pdf, & pages

/edium-Term enea7le nergy /ar0et eport 21.

Comparison of glo7al 7iofuels production and oil prices 2-2#I5)

PC/onthly il /ar0et eport 8 9anuary 21: 8 pdf, 1: pages

#9anuary 1A, 21:)

For !0#!% global consumption is estimated at '*.* mbpd, from '*.'& mpd in the "0#!& and '#.! mbpd in the !0#!&7on:OP- supply is estimated at &%."% mbpd in the !0#!%, from &%.(> mbpd in the "0#!& and &(.& mbpd in the !0#!&

PCBs 21. World il utloo0 #W) 8 pdf, +: pages

#$ecem7er 2&, 21.)

.& 1bpd from 4ecember #!& and at the end of #!(estimates a further growth of ">*.# 1bpd.ith these assumptions, the global oversupply of crude oil will be gone in #!(The following is a summary

The 5*aila7ility and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries ther Than Iran

Full report 8 pdf, pages

International nergy utloo021. #to 7e released on /arch 21:)

5ssumption to the 5nnual nergy utloo0 21. #521.) 8 pdf, 2&& pages

il and 6as Supply /odule 8 pdf, 1 pages

'%S% Crude il and 3atural 6as 21+ Pro*ed eser*es 8 pdf, + pages

+n #!", the H.A. proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate increased to *'.' billion barrels 2?'.*3International nergy Statistics#data7ase)

((on /o7il - The utloo0 for nergy

5 *ie to 2+ 8 pdf, A pages

- Charts

9oint rganisations $ata Initiati*e #9$I)

"PStatistical e*ie of World nergy 21.- 21: edition ill 7e released on Fe7ruary 1, 21:

nergy utloo0

5lso see4 JoJ in 7ov5!&8

This tab&e has bee' updated o' February 1, 20165lso see+ Warmer eather, loer energy prices are reducing home heating e(penditures

#I5)

The complete series used to deflate the T+ oil prices8

This tab&e has bee' updated o' February 1, 2016

T* for the period &'1)&'&& is :%.G)bbl below the long term averageThe correspondence between the prices of futures markets and the long-term average$ has among its foundations+

abundance of unconventional hydrocarbon resources "World Shale esource 5ssessments%$

abundance of conventionaloil and gas reser*es in PC

$

impact of technology on the feasibility of developing unconventional resources and e#ploitation in deep water$

impact of technology on saving e#ploration and development costs$

continuous development of new sources of renewable energy$

impact of technology on energy savings$ especially related to transportation$ and

weak global demand$ fears about the !hinese economy

/ar0it 6lo7al Sector P/I

9P/organ 6lo7al Composite P/I

9P/organ - 9anuary 21: 6lo7al /anufacturing P/I at .%, from .% in $ec@1. - pdf, & pages

# /ar0it)

egarding China$ also see+

China - CF

)% efinery capacity 1+%+ m7pd #C3PC forecast)

China 8 Industrial ;alue 5dded#Scri7d)

China 8 Trade 7alance and utloo0

#Scri7d)

+n #!& import volumes of crude oil increased by >.> JoJ.

Do the P"C could send oil 7elo E2.#C3"C)

5 3e conomic ra for China 6oes ff the ails#3GT)

Chinese enmin7i to "e Included in I/F=s Special $raing ight "as0et

#I/F)

China - conomic forecast summary #C$, 3o*em7er 21.)

The Conference "oard - ith weekly "34 and !anada% and an international monthly summary reports of "a0er Dughes ig Counts

are often used in industry as an indicator of thepossible evolution of oil and gas production from new wells.

+na'uary 2016 the i'ter'atio'a& ri )ou't

was !,"& 2

:&from 4ec5!&3, !'# in -anada 2?*#3, and %&" in the HA 2:%

3.9ccording to theee+&y report of February #, 2016

the rig count in the HA was down by ">from %!' rigs in the previous week.+n -anada contracts in operation was #"#, from #*! rigs in the previous week.

This ta7le has 7een updated on Fe7ruary ., 21:

5lso see4ffshore ig $ay ates#igHone)

Important note4 3e de*elopmentsin oil fields "e#cept for e#ceptional leases%remain economically and financially not feasi7lewith thecurrent structure of international prices. *nfill wells$ for the use of surface facilities$ continues to support a level of e#tremely low drillingactivity. ;efraking$ completion of wells$ and the elimination of some bottlenecks in the production and transportation of natural gas aresignificantly helping to maintain oil production levels.

PC 8 9an@1: e stimatem7pd @ha'e *bpd

21+ 21. 21: 201# 2016

World Consumption 1%&A 2%2 +%1 1$# 1$2#

O!F /.( /,.&1 /,.2 ."> .!(

Bon-O!F /., /,.(1 /(.(? !.% !.>

3on-PC Supply ..%:+ .:%A .:%21 1$22 (0$66

O!F &/.1? &.', &/. .>( :.&!

Bon-OP!)Bon-O!F &?.&? &?.,& &?./, .** :.!%

Processing gains &.1, &.1? &.&' .# .!

PC non-Crude il :% :%1. :%&2 0$1# 0$1

Call for PC oil 2%+ 2% &1%:+ 0$1 1$

PC oil production &% &1%A. &2%+2 1$0C 0$#

"alance 1%& 1%+ %A 0$91 (1$1

Own estimate

5ll 5pparel Food U 7e*% ther Dousing ecreation Transport

S5 S55 S5 S5F S56 S5D S5/ S5 S5T

9an-1. -%> -1./1J './/J .',J 1.2J &.&(J &.,/J '.'1J -1'.2JFe7-1. -%&> -'.2J '.2J &.2/J 1./,J &.&1J &.1J -'.'J -?.,,J

/ar-1. -%> -'.'J '.&J &.&(J 1./'J 1.?J &./,J '.',J -2.(J

5pr-1. -%2> -'.2'J '.1J 1.?J 1.&2J &.&'J &.?'J '.''J -?.(?J

/ay-1. -%+> -1./,J '.11J 1.,J 1.?J 1.?'J &.2/J '.1J -(.,1J

9un-1. %12> -1.2/J '.11J 1.(/J 1.(J &.''J &.1J '.1J -,.?J

9ul-1. %1> -1.,/J '.'(J 1.,'J 1.,2J 1.?(J &./?J './J -,.,'J

5ug-1. %2> -'.?/J '.11J 1.&J 1.,J &.'&J &./(J '.,(J -,.2J

Sep-1. -%+> -1.(J './J 1.(J 1.(2J &.1&J &./J '.,/J -2.,2J

ct-1. %1> -1.?1J '.?(J 1.J 1.2,J &.1&J &.?2J '.,1J -(.2?J

3o*-1. %.> -1./J 1.&J 1.&1J &.'2J &.1/J &.?J '.,/J -,.'J

$ec-1. %&> -'.?J 1.//J '.((J 1.2,J &.'(J &.2J '.,J -/.1J

atest data

CPI, 3S5,

GoG

duc% U

Comm

/edical

care

21+ 21. 21:

S5 &?.2( &/'.& &/'.(? &/1./1 &/1.(, &/&.1? &/&.1 &/&.,? &/.&1 &/.(' &//.1/ &//./ &(.?' &/&.& &/,.2/

o 0$1C- 0$16- 0$2"- 0$26- 0$1#- 0$1C- 0$1"- 0$0- 0$21- 0$20- 0$1C- 0$1"- 1$#- 1$C"- 1$C9-

3S5 &?.& &/'.'2 &/1.'( &/1.2' &/&.1& &/&. &/&.// &/&., &/., &/.?? &//.'2 &/.(2 &(.?' &/&.& &/,.2/

BoB 1$6#- 1$0- 1 $#- 1$C1- 1$2- 1$6- 1$C0- 1$C"- 1$C9- 1$91- 2$02- 2$10- 1$#- 1$C"- 1$90-

atest data

Own estimate

5ll items less food

and energy

9an

21.

Fe7

21.

/ar

21.

5pr

21.

/ay

21.

9un

21.

9ul

21.

5ug

21.

Sep

21.

ct

21.

3o*

21.

$ec

21.

Price Inde(es for Personal Consumption (penditures #PC)

GoG 9an-1. Fe7-1. /ar-1. 5pr-1. /ay-1. 9un-1. 9ul-1. 5ug-1. Sep-1. ct-1. 3o*-1. $ec-1.

PC %1:> %2:> %2A> %1:> %2.> %&+> %&2> %&2> %1A> %2&> %++> %.A>

:oods -.'J -.1/J -&.2J -.&J -&.(J -&.(J -&.,2J -&.(/J -.&1J -.11J -&.?J -&.1,J

Furable goods -&.,,J -&.&,J -&.&(J -&.1(J -1.?,J -&.',J -&.1/J -&.&2J -1.2,J -&.'&J -1.((J -1./1J

Bondurable goods -.?J -.?J -.11J -.(,J -.1J -.'/J -&.?J -&.?J -.2,J -.,/J -&.?2J -&.J4ervices &.'1J 1.?2J 1.2J 1.2(J 1.(,J 1.22J 1.2&J 1 .2J 1.22J 1.2?J 1.?/J 1 .?1J

PC e(- food and energy 1%2> 1%&+> 1%&.> 1%&2> 1%2A> 1%&> 1%2:> 1%2> 1%&.> 1%2> 1%&A> 1%+1>

/o/ at annual rate 9an-1. Fe7-1. /ar-1. 5pr-1. /ay-1. 9un-1. 9ul-1. 5ug-1. Se p-1. ct-1. 3o*-1. $ec-1.

PC -.%+:> 2%2> 2%:> %A> &%2> 2%A> 1%1:> -%2&> -%:A> %.> %A&> -1%1&>

:oods -1(.(?J .((J .'J -1.((J (.2/J &./1J '.&1J -/./'J -.?,J -'.2&J -.?1J -.?2J

Furable goods -1.?J &.'2J -1.&J 1.2,J -1.?1J -&.,J -&.??J -/.',J .&J -.1/J -.?J -1.?J

Bondurable goods -&/.,,J /.,'J ./&J -.,/J 1.&1J .''J 1.2J -/.,J -1'.&,J './'J -.2?J -2.&1J

4ervices 1.1'J 1.&'J &./?J &.'J 1.(2J &.??J 1.,J 1 .2J 1.?(J 1.1J .1(J 1 .&2J

PC e(- food and energy %:1> 1%.A> 2%+.> 1%> 1%+.> 1%> 1%> %> 2%1&> %.2> 1%+> %.2>

Advance stimate

B!BGear 9an Fe7 /ar 5pr /ay 9un 9ul 5ug Sep ct 3o* $ec /$

(&.& (&., (&.(2 (&.?2 (.&' (.& (. (./( (. (.(2 (.?& (.? "$2C #.&

(.?, (/.1 (/. (/./& (/. (/.(1 (/.?/ (.11 (.&' (.& (./( (.& $C0 #.>

(.,( (.2' (.? (,.1 (,.&/ (,.1 (,./' (,.( (,.,& (,.2& (,.2& (,.?( 6$"6 #.>

((.1/ ((.&, ((./? ((.(& ((.2 ((.2 (2.'& (2.1' (2.1 (2./ (2.,? (2.(2 $9C #.!*

(2.22 (?.' (?.1 (?.&' (?.1( (?.&( (?.1 (?.2 (?., (?.,, (?.,( (?.,, 9$"" !.(*

(?.,? (?.,/ (?., (?.( (?.2, (?.(? (?.?? 2'.1' 2'.'/ 2'.&& 2'.&& 2'.' 9$9 .((

2'./ 2'./ 2'./2 2'.2, 2'.2? 2'.?1 21.1& 21.&, 21. 21.,2 21.( 21.? C1$11 !."(

2&.1? 2&./ 2&.2' 2&.(& 2&.(2 2.', 2.&, 2.&/ 2.,' 2.(& 2.2 2.?/ C"$1" #."'

2/.1 2/./& 2/./ 2/.2 2/.21 2/.?( 2/.? 2/.? 2/.,( 2/.?2 2/.?& 2/.2 C$ !.'*

2/.2? 2.'/ 2.&( 2.,/ 2.(1 2.2& 2,.'' 2,.1, 2,.1 2,./( 2,., 2,., C#$C !.*"

2,.2 2(.&1 2(./& 2(.&( 2(.1( 2(.&( 2(.' 2(.(2 22.' 22.'' 22.'? 22.&? C$# !.'>

22.,1 22.2& 22.?( 2?.1& 2?./ 2?.(& 2?.2 2?.?1 ?'.'2 ?'./ ?'.( ?'.(? C9$0 #."*

?'.2 ?1.1& ?1.? ?1.,, ?1.(/ ?1.(? ?&.12 ?&., ?./, ?.? ?.2 ?./' 92$26 #.>&

?.21 ?.2 ?/.'1 ?/./' ?/.,1 ?/.2 ?.1( ?./( ?.& ?/.?2 ?.'' ?.? 9$" #.%>

?.,? ?,.'1 ?,./ ?,. ?,.2' ?(.'' ?(.1/ ?(.& ?(.,' ?(.22 ?2.( ?2.,/ 9$10 #.&

?2.2? ??.11 ??./& ??., 1''.'? 1''.(? 1'1.&& 1'1.1/ 1'1.&/ 1''.,2 ??. ??.'1 100$06 *.&

??.'( ??.&2 ??.1? ??./ ??./( 1''.'( 1''.'& 1''.&? 1''./ 1''.(, 1'1.'' 1'1.' 100$00 :.(

1'1.& 1'1.& 1'1., 1'1. 1'1.? 1'1.// 1'1., 1'1.(1 1'1.2' 1'&.'/ 1'&.&1 1'&./ 101$6# !.%&

1'&.,2 1'&.?, 1'. 1'.2' 1'/.1/ 1'/.12 1'/.2 1'/.,1 1'/.(2 1'/.2 1'.'' 1'.'& 10$1# #."%

1'.& 1'., 1'.2' 1'.?/ 1'.2( 1'.2/ 1'.22 1',.&/ 1',.( 1',.22 1',.(( 1',.(, 106$12 !.>'

1',.?& 1'(. 1'(.&/ 1'(.1 1'(.&/ 1'(./2 1'(.2 1'(.(/ 1'(.2, 1'2.'' 1'2.'( 1'2.& 10$# !.*(

1'2./& 1'2./? 1'2.(' 1'2.?' 1'?.1/ 1'?.&? 1'?./ 1'?./' 1'?./? 1'?.1 1'?. 1'?.1' 109$10 !."#

1'2.? 1'2.(( 1'?.'1 1'?.'2 1'?./1 1'?.,( 1'?.(( 1'?.( 1'?.,? 1'?.(, 1'?.2 1'?.( 109$2 .#'

1'?.,? 1'?.,/ 1'?.( 1'?.?1 11'.'1 11'.1/ 11'.& 11'.&( 11'.& 11'.1 11'.? 11'.( 110$06 .&'

11'./ 11'.' 11'.& 11'./( 11'.,& 11'.(2 11'.?1 11'.?? 111.' 111.'? 111.12 111.&& 110$6 .%"

111.& 111.& 111.&& 111.2 111.( 111.(, 111.?/ 11&.'? 11&.1? 11&.&? 11&./& 11&.1 111$C2 .'&

11&.( 11&.,1 11&.,& 11&.( 11&.? 11.1/ 11./ 11. 11.,( 11.2' 11.?/ 11/.', 11"$2# !.#>

11/.1 11/.&1 11/.& 11/., 11/. 11/.( 11/.? 11.1 11. 11./? 11.,/ 11.(2 11$CC !.""11.?' 11.?? 11,.', 11,.1, 11,.1 11,.1 11,.( 11,.? 11(.1 11(. 11(.1 11(.,( 116$69 !.&(

11(.2& 11(.? 112.'& 112.1 112.&( 112./, 112.,2 112.?1 11?.1/ 11?. 11?./ 11?.( 11C$66 !.%'

atest data


Own estimate

'S Price Inde(es for Personal Consumption (penditures 8 S5 8 2Q1

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1??2

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Producer Price Inde( 8 Commodities 8 Final demand 8 3o*% 2 Q 1

PPI Total, S5 Total, 3S56oods, 3S5

Ser*ices ConstructionTotal Foods nergy est

$ec-12 eight

o

%

GoG

&+%.1

BoB

.%.A2

GoG

:%

GoG

22%1+.

GoG

:&%++&

GoG

2%&

GoG$ec-1& eight 1%1 &+%& .%+ :%A2 22%12. :&%.2 2%A+

$ec-1+ eight % &+%:& .% :%& 22%.: :&%&: 2%2

Kan-1 11% :$.(# 1% '.''J 1'?.':*.%* 1&'., #.&& ?.( :##.*# 11'.1 $.(* 1'?.2 #.$" 11&.' #.$$

* 11&.& !.(#

Kun-1 11%. $.*% 11%: -'./J 111.1:*.(* 11?.2 :#.%> 1',.? :!>.#! 11'.& $.(* 11'.' !.!$ 11&.& !.%*

Kul-1 11%: $.$' 11%A -'.(&J 11'.?:*.># 11?.' :*.#& 1',., :!(.'" 11'.& $.&& 11'./ $.># 11&.2 !.>!

Aug-1 11%& :$.#( 11%. -'.??J 11'.1:".#% 11?. :#.%! 1'.& :!'.'" 1'?.? $.*( 11'. $.(* 11&.? !.>$4ep-1 1% :$.*% 1% -1.'2J 1'2.(:&.!& 112., :#.'& ?,.? :#*.($ 1'?.( $.!> 11'.& !.$! 11&.? !.>$

Oct-1 1%. :$.*% 1%: -1.,&J 1'2.1:".>" 11(.& :".#& ?.? :#!."' 1'?.? :$.$' 11'.1 $.$' 11/.' #.**

Bov-1 1%A $.#( 1%: -1.'2J 1'(.(:".#( 11(. :*.'# ?&. :!>.'% 1'?.( :$.$' 11'. $.&& 11.( #.$%

Fec-1 1%: :$.!> 1%2 -1.''J 1',.2:*.($ 11.( :&.#" 22. :!%.!' 1'?.2 $.$$ 11'.& $.*% 11., !.('

ast data

Own estimate

3o*@

Q1

igs per 1% EN7l Worldide rig count #O)

A%: &:% E+1%.+ T* futures contracts Own estimate

Canada '%S% WTI %!b& 3S5 T* futures contracts Own estimate

Canada '%S% WTI %!b& 3S5 ,(*( &/?$2, &:,&2 (C2$2- *#%,'$& &/?$?& 12,1&2 #"*,!#& ?,$12' 1+,&:

Kan $ 1, 1,&,21 #9,211 1,&$,' -212,+ (12$#- &/$? 2+,1A+ !(',!$$ &1$??2 +,+&: ("$- *">,$(* &&2$/1? 1&+,+1 #*#,$*> 2,$,'/ +,&AA

uarterly a*erage

1=2016 1,A&&,+12 #,9C1 1?1$&&, -2.1,&: (1"$- &,1$??2 -1,2+ !(>,%!# &($'2 :2,&1 (66$2- **%,!!& &,'$/,, 12,A.: #"$,#&" ?1$(' +,A+

=201# 1,::1,A 01,# 1,$?1 -2.,. (12$- &$,( -2+,&+. !(',%&" &,1$&' 11,1++ (0$9- #>!,>*! &1?$,? 1,1 #"$,#%$ 21$1, &,.2

"=201# 1,:A&,:.: "2,C2# 12$(/ -1+&,2:+ (C$#- &11$(2/ -A,11 !>',$(> &/$?? 12.,A2+ (#$6- #(&,'!# &&/$/?2 11,1A #%(,>*& ($2/, -1,:2A

2=201# 1,:A,A2& 696,16 &1$1' -1:+,AA (9$C- 1?$(/ -1.:,:&: !&',#$* 12$,2& 2++,.A+ (2"$"- #(>,>(> 12,$? .,2&1 #&>,**& (($'(, 1,:2A

1=201# 1,:A,:1 696,#9 &'$(? -11A,: ($1- 1(2$2,, -1+A,+A !%#,""$ '($&1 1A&,+1& ("#$0- #(>,%!% 12$&2 ,11 #&&,"'* 21$2/( +,2&

'.!# '.*># '!.#"! '#."# '*.(> '&.!'" '%.%!!

estimate change . :. . :. .! :.!(! :.!#'

Fe7ruary 21: ST 5nnual change

211 212 21& 21+ 21. 21: 21 212 21& 21+ 21. 21: 21

C$ % 21%:++ 22%.&2 2&%22 2.%.+ 2:%:A 2:%1A& 2:%: %AA 1%1A 2%&2 %&. -%.: -%A:

3on-C$ % ::%A+ :%+& :%2 :%.+1 :A%2 :%AA2 %::. 1%+ -%&+ %&&2 1%&A %.+ %A&

Total World Supply % AA%.&A %+: %&1 &%2+ .%:1: :%:+ :%:1 1%& %+.. 2%&:+ 2%&22 %++A %:

rev ious monthly estimate >>.&*> '.""* '.'(* '*.*#* '&.(& '&.'#% '%.%('

estimate change . .** :."# :.#' :.>' .!*> .>#

Fe7ruary 21: ST 5nnual change

211 212 21& 21+ 21. 21: 21 212 21& 21+ 21. 21: 21

World Consumption A%12 %&A2 1%2+1 2%+2 &%A1 .%22 :%+A2 1%2A1 %A.A 1%1 1%&:1 1%2+2 1%+:

Bon-OP! supply 1./22 &.'(? .?( ,.'1 (./& ,.2,? ,.,?, '.// 1.,12 &./' 1.&? -'.,/' -'.'?2

OP! other liquids supply "L% ,.&? ,.& ,./2( ,./,? ,.2, ,.?'' (.1?? '.&?2 -'.',1 -'.''( '.12/ './? '.&22Call for PC crude oil &1%&+ &1%A &1%1. 2%A 2%:& &1%2.+ &2%.A %+: -%:2+ -1%2. -%1&: 1%+1 1%&&&

OP! crude oil production "L% '.211 1.2( '.2/, '.((/ 1.?2 &.&? &.2,, 1.', -1.'&( -'.'(& '.2&/ '.,?( '.('

In*entory change -%.:+ %& -%&1 %A. 1%A&. 1%+2 %2

"L% including *ndonesia

Petroleum and ther

&'.& 1?.?/ 1?.( &&.', &/.'' &.1 &,.& &/./( &.&1 &. &.?/ &&.(& 22$9 #.!!

&.2/ &/.' &/./& &,.1/ &.2? &/.12 &&.,2 &. &.(? &&.,? &./& &/.(& 2$1# !.>

&/./ &/.(1 &(. '.&/ &(.1? &,.& &(.' &2.'/ '.,1 1.,2 '.1 &.' 2C$" #.&(

1.2, &2.', &,.' &/.2( &,.' &/.' &/.(? &.1 &/.2? &,.(2 &./ &.'1 2#$99 #.#(

&'.?2 &'.1( 12.?2 1?.& 12.,( 1(.1? 1(.(& 1,.2& 12.(2 12.' 1,.&1 1/.1 1C$0C !.>"

1., 1/.? 12.&/ &1./1 &1.?1 &&.1 &/.(2 &,.1? &?.1? &(.(2 '.2 1.2 2"$1 &.%&

.1( .,& ,.'/ 1.'? /.(2 2.1 .,( (. /'.& ?. /1.', .22 "6$ *.&

.1' .'( &.&2 &.' .(, &./2 1.11 &.&& '.?/ &,.'? &.1 &&.2, "0$6" ".#%

&.& &/.( &2.(( '.( 1. &?.(/ 1., &.? /.( . '.// /.'1 "0$"9 *.&*

(.?/ /1.'? 2. &.&2 &.& .1 .1 .?( &.1, /./2 .& ,.? "#$# #.%'

2.(& ?.', /1.' /1.&/ /.'/ /&.? /.? /?.?/ 1.'' 2.?& ./& /(. 6$16 %.#!

1., &.2/ ?.&? (.2' /.& ,1.? ,/.'' ('.&1 ('.12 ,,.& ,&./ ,.,1 61$1C %.#%

,?.21 ,.,( ,,.,? (., (/.22 (/.2& (2.1? (,.1 ,,.?? ,&.'' ,&.1? ,/.? 69$69&.(,.?( ,1.( ,&.(/ ,,.&2 ,., ,?.2 (,.' (/./ 21.22 2(.,, ?,./ ?&.?, $" !#.>'

?/.'1 ?,.& 1',.'( 11&.?( 1&.&? 1&.2/ 11.(( 11., 1'&.2/ (,.'? (.( /1. 99$"C #>.%#

/&.1' ?.( /2. /?.?2 ?./ ,?.? ,/.1/ ('.2 ,?.1' (.1 ((.&& (.(' 61$# !*."

((.2 (./ 2'.11 2.1( (&.( (/.&( (.1/ (.1 (.?1 2'.& 2&./ 2(.'& C$10 "."&

2,.2/ 2,.' ??.& 1'.& ?,.2? ?&./' ?.&& 2&.& 21.,& 2&. ?&./ ?.2 91$11 (."%

?.&' ?,.2& 1''./ ?(. 2?./1 ((.(, 2.'& 22.,' 22.,2 2.( 21.' 2&.' CC$0 (.*>

22., 22.2' 2,.,, 2.?' 22.1 2?.11 ?(.&? ?2.?& ?2. ?.'? 2,.2 ?'.1? 91$01 ".(&

2(.&( ?&.? ?&.( ?.(& ?.,& ?,.(? ?/.,( 22.&/ 2.1 ((.'( ,?.1 /./ C#$9 !#.%>

/./2 /,.' /.2( /?.(' /.1 /. /,.,1 ?.', /1./2 /&.11 2.? .2? $#0 %.#

&2.(/ &,. &.( &(.&? &2.(( &?.?/ '.?/ 1.(1 &./ &.2/ .&? .( "0$16 #.("

/.11 /./? /.2( .12 .1 .2/ ,.'& ,.&& ,.// ,.,/ ,.2/ (.', "#$ .'&

(.&/ (./& (.,' (.( (.2 (.?( 2.'2 2.&1 2., 2.' 2.,/ 2.(? "C$0" ."'

2.22 2.?? ?.1' ?.1( ?.&& ?.&( ?.& ?.2 ?./, ?./ ?.,& ?.(' "9$"0 .#&

?.(, ?.2/ ?.?& ?.?2 /'.'& /'.'/ /'.', /'.'2 /'.11 /'.1/ /'.12 /'.&& 0$0" .!"

/'.&( /'./ /'./1 /'./, /'.1 /'. /'./ /'. /'.( /'.,' /'.,& /'., 0$#0 .!#

/'.,? /'.( /'.(2 /'.2 /'.2, /'.22 /'.2? /'.2? /'.2? /'.?' /'.?1 /'.? 0$C# .(

LT /erae +&%.2 +&%2 ++%&. +.%&. +.%2 +.%A +:%& +:%+: +:%&2 +.%:: ++%.A +&%2: +.%:

LT >td$ De/ 22$#0 2"$2C 2#$09 2#$9 2#$60 26$ 2$0 2#$09 2"$C0 22$16 22$21 22$2" 2$0

atest "preliminary% data


Own estimate$ based on futures ight 4weet !rude Oil ">T*% in constant dollars "&''? prices$ deflated by P! price inde#%

>u**ary 9an Fe7 /ar 5pr /ay 9un 9ul 5ug Sep ct 3o* $ec /$ >td De/

199"(99 2"$"2 22$C# 2"$"" 2$#" 2$6 2"$66 2"$9C 2$10 2$C9 2#$01 2$#C 2$02 2$06 $0

19C6(92 "2$26 2C$9" 2C$00 2C$C 29$# 2C$## 2C$# "0$66 "1$# "2$2 "1$0 29$ "0$02 #$"9

2000(0 ""$6" "#$0 "#$" ""$# "#$ "#$61 "#$ "$" "$C0 "C$C "6$6 "$9" "#$C" $02

201#(22 "$90 "C$10 "$9 "C$9 "9$61 "9$CC "9$06 "C$26 "C$0 "C$91 "C$#9 "C$12 "C$6 #$16

u**ary ordered fro* periods of &o pri)es i' )o'sta't )urre')y, to periods of hih pri)es$

199"

199

199#

1996

199

199C

1999

2000

2001

2002

200"

200

200#

2006

200

200C

2009

2010

2011

2012

201"

201

201#

2016

201

201C

2019

2020

2021

2022
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/https://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/fullissues/2015-12-11.pdfhttps://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/MHM.xlshttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/surveys/prices/mps.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2015SUM.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/november/low-prices-should-give-no-cause-for-complacency-on-energy-security-iea-says.htmlhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/151110_WEO2015_presentation.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/WEO2015_Factsheets.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/WEO2015_Factsheets.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/october/renewables-to-lead-world-power-market-growth-to-2020.htmlhttp://www.iea.org/Textbase/nptable/2015/MTrenew2015_f83.pdfhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20January%202016.pdfhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO%202015.pdfhttp://woo.opec.org/index.php/oil-supply-and-demand-outlook-2040/data-downloadhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2015.pdfhttp://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/Main-Dateien/SubSection3.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/ndaa/http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/ndaa/pdf/ndaa.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/0554(2015).pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/oilgas.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/pdf/usreserves.pdfhttp://205.254.135.7/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=53&aid=1http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlookhttp://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2016/2016-outlook-for-energy.pdfhttp://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlook/charts-2016https://www.jodidata.org/http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics.htmlhttp://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.htmlhttp://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/energy-outlook.htmlhttp://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL8N14Z42D?sp=truehttp://www.commodityonline.com/news/lng-prices-likely-to-remain-subdued-next-year-68960-3-68961.htmlhttp://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/sho/slng/index.htmlhttp://www.rystadenergy.com/http://www.rystadenergy.com/AboutUs/NewsCenter/PressReleases/project-delays-commentary-http://www.rystadenergy.com/AboutUs/NewsCenter/PressReleases/global-liquids-supply-cost-curvehttp://www.rystadenergy.com/Images/News/CNN_Money_Nov2015.PNGhttp://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htmhttp://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=24572http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=24572http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htmhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/266314837/U-S-Federal-Open-Market-Committee-Federal-Funds-Ratehttp://www.scribd.com/doc/266314837/U-S-Federal-Open-Market-Committee-Federal-Funds-Ratehttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htmhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htmhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htmhttps://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dff621d8de6144f189ab901ce430c809https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70c47b048dd64219b99dc4d2b3d20f08https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3e171bc4c0dd4e388c2e8b2750ffb919https://www.scribd.com/doc/157349318/China-CFLP-Manufacturing-PMIhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/190671155/China-Industrial-Value-Addedhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/228617538/China-Trade-balance-and-Outlookhttp://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/11/how-the-pboc-could-send-oil-below-25.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/business/international/a-new-economic-era-for-china-goes-off-the-rails.htmlhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/new120115a.htmhttp://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/china-economic-forecast-summary.htmhttps://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11http://www.scribd.com/doc/262377752/China-Gross-Domestic-Product-2015-and-2016-Projectedhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15259.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/reports_presentations/eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15209.pdfhttp://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htmhttp://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL8N15I45F?sp=truehttp://portalweb.sgm.gob.mx/economia/es/energeticos/precios-historicos/695-seguimiento-precio-del-petroleo-mezcla-mexicana-mme-datos.htmlhttp://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/Main-Dateien/Section3.htmlhttp://www.bakerhughes.com/rig-counthttp://www.bakerhughes.com/rig-counthttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjA4NjYxfENoaWxkSUQ9MzIyMjI1fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjA4NjY4fENoaWxkSUQ9MzIyMjgwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1http://www.rigzone.com/data/dayrates/http://www.rigzone.com/data/dayrates/https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/https://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/fullissues/2015-12-11.pdfhttps://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/MHM.xlshttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/surveys/prices/mps.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2015SUM.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/november/low-prices-should-give-no-cause-for-complacency-on-energy-security-iea-says.htmlhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/151110_WEO2015_presentation.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/WEO2015_Factsheets.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/october/renewables-to-lead-world-power-market-growth-to-2020.htmlhttp://www.iea.org/Textbase/nptable/2015/MTrenew2015_f83.pdfhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20January%202016.pdfhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO%202015.pdfhttp://woo.opec.org/index.php/oil-supply-and-demand-outlook-2040/data-downloadhttp://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2015.pdfhttp://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/Main-Dateien/SubSection3.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/ndaa/http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/ndaa/pdf/ndaa.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/0554(2015).pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/oilgas.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/pdf/usreserves.pdfhttp://205.254.135.7/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=53&aid=1http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlookhttp://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2016/2016-outlook-for-energy.pdfhttp://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlook/charts-2016https://www.jodidata.org/http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics.htmlhttp://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.htmlhttp://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/energy-outlook.htmlhttp://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL8N14Z42D?sp=truehttp://www.commodityonline.com/news/lng-prices-likely-to-remain-subdued-next-year-68960-3-68961.htmlhttp://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/sho/slng/index.htmlhttp://www.rystadenergy.com/http://www.rystadenergy.com/AboutUs/NewsCenter/PressReleases/project-delays-commentary-http://www.rystadenergy.com/AboutUs/NewsCenter/PressReleases/global-liquids-supply-cost-curvehttp://www.rystadenergy.com/Images/News/CNN_Money_Nov2015.PNGhttp://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htmhttp://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=24572http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htmhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/266314837/U-S-Federal-Open-Market-Committee-Federal-Funds-Ratehttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htmhttps://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dff621d8de6144f189ab901ce430c809https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/70c47b048dd64219b99dc4d2b3d20f08https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/3e171bc4c0dd4e388c2e8b2750ffb919https://www.scribd.com/doc/157349318/China-CFLP-Manufacturing-PMIhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/190671155/China-Industrial-Value-Addedhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/228617538/China-Trade-balance-and-Outlookhttp://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/11/how-the-pboc-could-send-oil-below-25.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/business/international/a-new-economic-era-for-china-goes-off-the-rails.htmlhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/new120115a.htmhttp://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/china-economic-forecast-summary.htmhttps://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11http://www.scribd.com/doc/262377752/China-Gross-Domestic-Product-2015-and-2016-Projectedhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15259.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/reports_presentations/eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15209.pdfhttp://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htmhttp://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL8N15I45F?sp=truehttp://portalweb.sgm.gob.mx/economia/es/energeticos/precios-historicos/695-seguimiento-precio-del-petroleo-mezcla-mexicana-mme-datos.htmlhttp://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/Main-Dateien/Section3.htmlhttp://www.bakerhughes.com/rig-counthttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjA4NjYxfENoaWxkSUQ9MzIyMjI1fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjA4NjY4fENoaWxkSUQ9MzIyMjgwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1http://www.rigzone.com/data/dayrates/


3/4

& N +

3otes4Implications for the 'S mar0et

egulations and other e*ents ith impact on costs or producti*ity, and other comments

5*erage annual natural gas spot price in 21. as at loest le*el since 1

#I5)

'%S% official e(pects ((on, other oil firms, to share ta( data

#euters)

Shell finds 1 million oil 7arrels in deep-ater 6ulf disco*ery

#FuelFi()

Study finds dispersants did not help oil degrade in "P $eepater DoriHon spill

#Tampa "ay)

California o*ersight of oil ell inection sites inadeKuate - state re*ie

#euters)

nergy Infrastructure ith eal-Time Storm Information#I5)

Tar-sands oil mining has no come to the '%S%

#6rist rg%)

P5 'pdates missions Standards for Petroleum efineries

8 *er*ie 8 pdf, + pages

6uidance in /itigating is0s of Induced Seismic *ents 8 pdf, 1+A pages

#States First Initiati*e)

Press release 8 pdf, 2 pages

!ey /essages 8 pdf, 2 pages

Sustained lo oil prices could reduce e(ploration and production in*estment

#I5)

Industrial Production Inde(#Federal eser*e)

+n #!& the +ndustrial Production +nde) increased !.*, frrom ?*.( in #!"6anufacturing output grew #.# but 6ining output fell !."

2nsa3+n particular, Oil and Las )traction grew %.' but drilling activity fell by "%.%2nsa3

This tab&e i&& be updated o' February 1, 2016

This Wee0 in Petroleum#I5)

I' the ee+ e'di'

=anuary #', #!%8

Oil production is estimated at ',#!" 1bpd

+mports are estimated at >,#&% 1bpd, appro). #. mbpd over refining demand.

Processing crude at !&.% mbpd. efineries operated at >%.% of their operable capacity, from >(." in the previous week

Total products supplied over the last four week period averaged !'.( mbpd, up by .* from the same period last year

Lasoline supplied down by :.'JoJ and distillates was down by :!%.JoJ

-ommercial crude oil inventories increased (.> million barrels up to *#.# days of oil processing, from #%.% days on =an. *, #!&.

Lasoline inventories increased by &.' million barrels and distillate fuel inventories decreased by :.> mblfrom previous week

The following table summariIes the latest weekly evolution of the main variables.

This tab&e has bee' updated o' February ", 2016

I5 /onthly $ata

/onthly nergy e*ie

8 9anuary 21: - pdf, 2& pages#9anuary 2, 21.)

/onthly Crude il and 3atural 6as Production

#I5-1+ su*ey 8 9anuary 2, 21:)

Company HL>

, in =an5!% the ONL e)traction reduced its staffing in !&,>

from =an5!&. +n turn, in 4ec5!& the personnel employed in support activities for ONL fell by (",

JoJ 2our pevious estimate was (%,>3,

estimating a net reduction of (&,'@obs for =an5!% compared to the same month last year.

This tab&e has bee' updated o' February #, 2016

9"-C'T

9ccording toChallenger, 6ray U Christmas

"press releaseKanuary &'1, Kob !ut ;report - pdf$ 1' pages

)

+n =anuary #!% @ob cuts for the energy sector was #,!*, from !,%># in 4ec5!& and #,!'* in =an5!&

Of the total HA @ob cuts in =an5!% 2(&,!!" positions3, because of oil prices have @ustified a total of !(,!(>

Te)as 2arnett Ahale, etc.3 and 9rkansas 2Fayetteville Ahale, etc.3, leading Atates with higher @ob cuts.

'S il Patch @e'sus HEE Final eport - pdf, pages

#$ec@1.)

+n 4ec5!& shipments of machinery for mining, ONL fields, decreased by ""." JoJ 7ew orders collapsed with a fall of '!.# JoJ

+n #!& the nominal drop in sales was "6$-and a further decline of #!.%in #!% is estimated.

The following table shows an evolution and estimate for the coming months

This tab&e has bee' updated o' February , 2016

SUP . nergy

The /a&ue of shares i' the e'ery se)tor

fell by B ("0$#-JoJ on Feb. ', #!%, from (2C$#-JoJ on Feb >, #!%.

9ccording toSUP $o 9onesfor its inde) ANP & nergy Aector, the evolution of earnings per share was88

Sales in the +th Kuarter 21.+

5lso see4

((on /o7il in the + 21. earnings fell

.%> and sales 7y

&1%.> GoG 8 pdf, 11 pages

Che*ron eports Fourth uarter :&*.$& :&&.%! :&(.%$ :&'.$# :%!.(& (6$6- o !.#> !.%( :*.'> :".'% :".$$ :(.*( (6$#1-

3S5 - il and gas e(traction 8 35ICSQ211 S5 - il and gas e(traction 8 35ICSQ211

21+ 1&(.'( 1&2./1 1&?.(2 11.2/? 1&.(,? 1.(2, 12:%&& 21+ 1&2.1, 1&?.'?2 1'.&' 1'.,&' 1'.2& 1/.2?( 12:%&&

21. 1./& 1.111 1.22/ 1/./1, 1&.2 1&., 1&.%A 21. 1,./?( 1.2(& 1,.( 1.1(' 1'.( 11.(( 1&.%+:

BoB %.&( &.#( ".($ !.'& :$.!( :#.*# 6$C6- o $.#% :$."% $.*( :#.*& :!.'& $.>' 6$C9-

3S5 - Crude petroleum and natural gas e(traction 8 35ICSQ211111 S5 - Crude petroleum and natural gas e(traction 8 35ICSQ211111

21+ 1&(.&' 1&2. 1&?.?2, 1&.1/2 1.&&( 1,.' 12:%:. 21+ 1&2.2 1&?.(' 1'.2& 11.'1 11.'' 1.( 12:%:.

21. 1.,?? 1.1' 1,.'2/ 1/./, 1&.2/ 1&./2 1&.%2:A 21. 1,.(( 1,.1&2 1,.(( 1.&2/ 1'.//( 11.' 1&.%&&

BoB %.%" &.#% ".%' !.(* :$.%* :#.>$ 6$C0- o $.#' :$."( $."& :#.&* :#.!* $.>! 6$C"-

3S5 8 Crude oil 8 35ICSQ211111pt% S5 8 Crude oil 8 35ICSQ211111pt%

21+ 1/.2(/ 1,.1' 12.''2 1/'.(1( 1/1.(, 1/.'(2 1&+%22& 21+ 1,.,/ 1(.// 12.?2 1?.?? 1?.,&' 1/.2(1 1&+%22&

21. 1/.2?& 1/./(' 1//.&? 1/&.21 1/'.11 1/'.&& 1+&% 21. 1/.?& 1//.2// 1/./1 1/1.&/& 1(.?? 1?.'&? 1+&%AA

BoB %.%' &.*> ".&& !.*# :!.!% :*.*" $11- o $.%% :$.&! $.*" :#.># :#.*# $.(> $1-

3S5 - 3atural gas 8 35ICSQ211111pt% S5 - 3atural gas 8 35ICSQ211111pt%

21+ 1'2.,'& 11'.'' 11'.&2 11'.?,& 11&.1, 11/.,/ 1A%1&: 21+ 1'(.2,' 1'?.&/& 1'?.2/& 11'.& 11'.21& 11/.2 1A%121

21. 11.21 11./( 11,.&'& 11/.,2& 11.,&( 11.2?, 11+%A 21. 11/.??2 11/.,/1 11., 11/.'?, 11/.&21 11.,&' 11+%A

BoB %.%( &.$" &.*( *.*& *.!$ !.$' 6$1#- o :!.!" :$.*! $.>( :!.** $.!% !.!( 6$1-

3S5 8 3atural gas liKuid e(traction 8 35ICSQ211112 S5 8 3atural gas liKuid e(traction 8 35ICSQ211112

21+ 1&&.(/1 1&.1?/ 1&/.2, 1&/.,&2 1&1.(,? 1&.', 11A%:. 21+ 1&.2// 1&&./& 1&1.1(' 1&1.1?& 11?./' 1&/.21 11A%:.

21. 1&?.&&/ 1'.?(( 11.(/ 1.1,? 12.'&( 12.',, 12%+ 21. 1'.1? 1'.1/2 1&(.(1/ 11.&?1 1.'? 1?.2 12%+2.

BoB &.#> %.*# &.&" >."% ! *.*& ! !.'( 9$02- o :$.&* :$.$" :!.>( # .>$ *.$% #.'' 9$0-

Latest data

7' esti*ate

Industrial Production Inde( #Source4 Federal eser*e and on estimate)

Petroleum *er*ie

#) 7pdCrude oil production

36.&( :%.>* 16$C#- !$.&( 1#$26- &.#> :(.%! $.'" !%.(( (10$#- 0$-

Fe7-1. !>.*( :".#% 16$9"- !".*( 16$2C- ".&> :!$.#> $.'% #>."% (1$""- 2$#C-

/ar-1. !>.&! :*.%* 1$09- !#."" 1#$90- #. $.(! *.#$ *.!' "$21- $19-

5pr-1. !".*( :&.$! 1"$1#- !#.*! 12$9- #.*' :*.** :*.$& #".*' (22$"- 1$00-

/ay-1. !!.>" :'.>" 10$#1- '.'! 10$"6- ".%* #.>$ $.>> !>.&! (12$C6- 2$C6-

9un-1. >.#" :(.>& $"- &.*" 6$C1- &.!% :!!.(" >.$' !#.*" $"1- "$1-

9ul-1. (.>! %."" $#- &."" $1- *.#( :".'# $.!% !!.#( (9$69- "$61-

5ug-1. %.%% #."% 6$- &.%* 6$2#- ".&% $.$> ".>* #.*' $06- 2$1-

Sep-1. &.'% :!.$' #$#9- ".%* #$"- *.$( :$.%! !.%( #*.(* (1$96- (0$11-

ct-1. #.&% :$.%" 2$"9- (.#& "$6#- %.&! :!.$( :!."$ !!.'& (12$91- (1$"-

3o*-1. :$.** !.($ (0$22- '.!" 2$1#- :$.(( :'."> !.*> !.'% 0$C- 1$-

$ec-1. :#.(" !.#& (2$#2- !#.#> 1$19- :%.&! :!.'! !."# :'.&& 1"$"2- 1$#2-

Field

Production

"io-fuels U

--B

Processing

6ain

Petroleum

Supplied

Field

Production

"io-fuels U

--B

Processing

6ain

Petroleum

Supplied

Petroleum Supplied net of Petroleum 4tock !hange and Petroleum Ad@ustments

#) 7pd Sep-1. ct-1. 3o*-1. /o/ GoG GT$ #) 7pd ct-1. 3o*-1. $ec-1. ct GoG 3o* GoG $ec GoG

1%2:> 1%> A%:>

*nland ($&(&.? ($&/?.1 ($&&(.2 -'.&?J -'.&/J *nland ($/1(.( ($/''., ($(&. 11.J 1 '.?J ?.''J -2%1> -2%>

Total '%S% ,++%+ ,&% ,&1%: -%.:> 1%2> Total '%S% ,+.% ,++%1 ,+2% 1%1> %&2> A%2>

H.A. -rude oil production 2including lease condensate3 based on data from the +9:'!" survey and own estimate

Wee+

@rude oi& produ)tio' @o**er)ia& trade il Stoc0 il refining # 7lNd)

40005 bpd 40005 bpd #) 7arrelsWee0 BoB

le*el +-e e0 chg Imports (ports Wee0 @ha'e

3o* 2, 1. ,22 /& ($(/( // +A,+2+ !,!(( 1:,A& !%,*$$ !.'$ec +, 1. ,1:+ -&1 2$'&1 // +A.,A.: :*,&%> 1:,:.2 !%,"(> !.%

$ec 11, 1. ,1: -, 2$1& // +,:. ",>$! 1:,:11 !%,%!# !.>

$ec 1A, 1. ,1 1/ ($&, '' +A+,A :&,>(( 1:,+:A !%,%*" !."

$ec 2., 1. ,22 ' ($2?& '' +A,+ #,%#' 1:,:A2 !%,%$* !.#

9an 1, 1: ,21 ($1' '' +A2,&2+ :&,$>& 1:,:1 !%,&'& !."

9an A, 1: ,22 1 2$122 '' +A2,..A #*" 1:,+2& !%,&"> !.>

9an 1., 1: ,2&. , ($((? '' +A:,.& *,'(' 1:,1 !%,"(> *.%

9an 22, 1: ,221 1? ($,'? ?? ++,2 >,*>* 1.,:& !%,#!( *.>

9an 2, 1: ,21+ -. A,2.: & .2,12 ,92 1.,:1. 1#,96 "$-

Fe7 ., 1: ,2+ -& ,$&1, /' +:,A2 :&,'!$ 1.,A1+ !&,>!& *.#

Fe7 12, 1: ,1. -/' ($1// /' +,A.2 !,$&$ 1.,& !&,($# !.%

Fe7 1, 1: ,1A -/ ($2 /' .&,2& &,*(> 1.,..2 !&,%>$ !.&

Fe7 2:, 1: ,1. -,/ ($&( /' .,+.1 ",##! 1.,+2+ !&,%*# !.'

/ar +, 1: ,1&+ -(' ($/' /' .11,11: *,%%& 1.,:1 !&,&>! #.$/ar 11, 1: ,12 -( ($,?? /' .1.,+: ",*%$ 1.,+: !&,&>* #.$

/ar 1A, 1: ,1 -22 ($,,2 /( .1A,:.1 *,!(& 1.,A& !&,%&& #.$

/ar 2., 1: , -(1 ($(', /( .2,.A !,'#( 1:,&. !&,>$> #.$

.! &2,:1 #>.! 1$2, !$.' &1,2. '.% ?'. ?'.( 2$'21 A,A2

201" &$1,1 :!.% &2,12. :!.& &$?/ #.* &2,.2 #.( ?1.? ?&.' 2$1'' A,1

201 &$,2 !.% &2,+2 !.' 1$2'? :#." &1,A:1 :#.# (?./ (?.& ($1', ,11

201# 2,A ("6$- 2,A2 ("#$9- 1,2.1 (#$C- 1,&&1 (#$6- A% A%1 .,:&2 .,:+

2016 1,$&21 :#!.% 1:,2A1 :##." 1,$,(' :*." 1:,:: :*.> ?(.2 ?(.2 /$& +,&.2

201 1?$& !>.( 1,&2& !>.( 1?$( !%.# 1,&+ !%.# ?.& ?.& /$?/ +,&+

201C &'$((& (.& 2,2 (.& &'$21' (." 2,A11 (." ?,.& ?,.& $/(( .,+

2019 &1$?1& &.& 21,11 &.& &1$? &.& 21,.: &.& ?(. ?(. $2? .,A&

2020 &&$22 "." 22,AA+ "." &$&2& %.! 2&,2A %.! ?,.& ?,.& ,$'1& :,12

A,2:: :!.* (2.& ((. ($1?' ,A

21++ ($,22 :'.> ,+.2 :!!." ,$1/' :##." :,&+ :#*.( (&.2 (,.? ,$'2( :,2221.1 ,$&1 :#!.% :,+2 :!*.> $2&( :*".! .,A&A :(." 2(.& 2.' ,$'&' :,2

21.2 $/1 :*>.$ .,+&& :!&.& /$,' :"%.# +,+2 :#*.! ?2.? ?. $2'( .,:

21.& /$211 :"*.! +,A21 :!!.* /$1? :"'.> +,1:2 :(.* 1'.' 1'.2 $/? .,+&A

21.+ /$/11 :"#.% +,&1 :!$.> &$,,& :&%.% 2,A& :*!.> 1'2., 11/. $&'( .,&.1

21:1 /$1/1 :**." +,2+ :!.# /$'& :*$.> +,1 "$.' 1'. 1'., /$2'& +,A&

21:2 $(?2 :#>.' &,A+ :'.& $2 :!%.* &,&+ :%.( 1'&.' ?2.? /$&( +,1A1

21:& /$'12 :!%.& +, ".# /$12 :$.$ +,11 '.> ?,.1 ?.1 /$1?2 +,1+2

21:+ /$&/ :#.$ +,1A ".* /$,&, (*.> +,A&& !(.> 22. ?. /$1' +,2+A

1,A22 $.! 2(./ ?&., ,$'1? :,2

5pr-1. 1$(2( :*>." 1,2. :".% 1$(& :"$.> 1,A+ :#.! 1''.2 ?1.2 ,$''/ .,A&

/ay-1. 1$(' :*'.' 1,& :(.' 1$?/ :"%.& 1,&&1 :#&." 1',.? ??.? $2( .,1:

9un-1. 1$21 :*&.> 1,&. :#.! 1$,( :&$.# 1,& *.& 2?.? ?/.? $/ .,+A

9ul-1. 1$,11 :"#." 1,:& :#." 1$(( :"'.* 1,+12 #.& 1',.( 1''.1 $/ .,+::

5ug-1. 1$(? :"*.! 1,. :%.( 1$/2 :.& 1,+1& $.! 1'2.( 1',.2 $? .,++

Sep-1. 1$,&1 :"*.' 1,.+ :!.' 1$// :"(.& 1,&& :&." ??.2 1'/.( $?/ .,+

ct-1. 1$? :*'.& 1,.&2 :!.! 1$'& :#'.$ 1,+: '.# 1',.& 1'2. $&(& .,&.2

3o*-1. 1$ :"*.' 1,+2A :%.> 1$1, :"*.& 1,1&2 :##.& 11,.& 111.? $&/? .,&2A

$ec-1. 1,.1 ($- 1,&+1 (6$1- 1 (91$2- 2+ (C$2- 1+%2 12+%2 ., .,&&

9an-1: 1$&,, :*'.& 1,&:. !.> 1$ :*#.( 1,&A "&(.' 11&.' 1'.( /$(& +,:.&

Fe7-1: 1$&& :**." 1,+A *.# 1$/& :*".' 1,2.1 :'.# 1'?.( 1'./ $''1 .,1/ar-1: 1$ :#(.* 1,+: ".> 1$, :#*.' 1,&2 '.( ?,. 1'1., /$2/ +,A&A

% :!*.* 1$1$22 :"*." &>.'% :*".(

&' :'.> ?$11$?' :&!.# "'.&* :"&.'

7arch &2,$,/( 1/$(1$1/1 &.!" &&,$( (,*# !. 1'$&'$''' :&. "%."( :&.&

April &?/$? 1/$221$?1' &. &$?/ (,>%" :!.* 1'$?($,' :&!.' "%. :&!.*

7ay &,$1? 1/$(2?$,1 &&.(> &'1$2(2 %,&!# :&.# 1'$&/,$? :"'.' &.(% :"(.#

Kune &2($1 1,$/2$( &(."! &&$?' (,""% "." 1&$''?$'' :"!.> &*.(% :"".#

Kuly ''$' 1($&$,1 &(."& &,$(? (,%*# :.' 1&$2&&$?/& :"&.! &".# :"".%

August &(?$,1 1/$($/(& &!.'' &1?$/&, (,(> !.( 1'$2&$2/2 :"(.' "'.** :">.>

4eptember &?$?, 1$''$/& "&.#& &1$/& (,(!" #." ?$22($12 :.( "#.(# :&*.>

October &,&$?2 11$11$,(, "#.#( &',$(/' %,%%' :(.( 2$&?$2/ :&>.# ".!# :&".(

Bovember &,1$2,? 1'$(&$2&1 ".'& &11$' (,*& !.' 2$&2&$1'1 :"(.& *'.#" :.(

Fecember &,&.+ 11,,+:1 "C$0C 2.+,+2. C,20 "$- ,&12,11: (C$6- "6$60 (#0$"-

:(".$ :(&.'

>upport a)ti/i ty ratio 1$6# 1$6" 1$#9 1$#9 1$#0 1$9 1$C 1$# 1$# 1$# 1$2 1$1 1$"C

atest data 8 34 Iureau of abor 4tatistics

5ll employees #) S5 9an-1. Fe7-1. /ar-1. 5pr-1. /ay-1. 9un-1. 9ul-1. 5ug-1. Sep-1. ct-1. 3o*-1. $ec-1. 9an-1:

Oil and gas e#traction 1?2.( 1?(.& 1?(.? 1?.? 1?.& 1?&.& 1?&. 1?'.? 12?.& 12,.( 12.' 12.2 12.'

6onthly change :!.' :!.& $.( :".$ :$.( :!.$ $.* :!.% :!.( :#.& :!.( :!.# :$.>

4upport activities for OM: &2. &1. 11. ',.1 &?1.? &22.? &2&.2 &(2., &(./ &('.( &,&.& &2.& &/.&

6onthly change :".$ :(.$ :'.> :&." :!".# :*.$ :%.! :".# :&.# :#.( :>.& :".$ :".$>upport a)ti/i ty ratio 1$6# 1$6" 1$# 1$#C 1$#1 1$#0 1$ 1$6 1$# 1$# 1$2 1$0 1$"9

Own estimate

SUP . energy sector 21+ 1 21+ 2 21+ & 21+ + 21. 1 21. 2 21. & 21. +

perating arnings Per Share G11.(' G11.?/ G1&., G,.(/ -G'./2 -G'.1 -G/.& -G&.&'

5s eported arnings Per Share G?.?2 G11./1 G11.,? G&.1 -G1.2' -G1.' -G,.'1 NB)A

C/P53GS5 :"!.$( 211 2 G1?. &2./J

7arathon Petroleum G1$,(/ G1,$(&2 G&'$'1 :!>.#% :*#.%" 211 & G1/.2 &.1(J

4chlumberger td G($(// G2$/( G1&$,/1 :>.%$ :*>.(" 211 + G1/./( &&.'1J

!onocoPhillips G,$&? G($&,& G11$&'2 :!*.*" :"*.>& 212 1 G1/.&' 1&.?(J

Tesoro !orp G,$&( G($,', G2$1 :!(.&* :#".&% 212 2 G1/.? /.J

alliburton !o G$'2& G$2& G2$((' :>.'% :"#.$& 212 & G1/'.? -.1?J

Cinder 7organ G$,, G$('( G$?1 :!.'# :(.'( 212 + G1/'.(& -1.?1J

Iaker ughes *nc G$?/ G$(2, G,$, :!$.*& :">.>& 21& 1 G1/.'( -(.,,J

Occidental Petroleum G&$2', G$11, G/$'( :'.'& :*".>& 21& 2 G12.', -.'/J

Batl Oilwell Earco G&$(&& G$', G$('? :!(.%% :.*# 21& & G1/&.2? 1.?J

!ameron *ntl G&$'(? G&$&'2 G&$2'/ :&.>" :#&.>% 21& + G1?.&( -1.'J

Anadarko Petroleum G&$'/ G&$&' G$/&& :>.(' :"$.&% 21+ 1 G1(.2 &./(Jess !orp G1$/(/ G1$,(1 G&$( :!!.(' :"#.*& 21+ 2 G1//.& /./(J

4pectra nergy G1$1, G1$1' G1$,'' !'.*! :!(.(& 21+ & G1/'. -1.,/J

!OB4O nergy G('2 G(/ G2( :*."* :!>.>' 21+ + G11(.(/ -1./,J

7urphy Oil G,2 G,,, G1$&1? :!.!* :"%.$! 21. 1 G2(.? -,.&/J

DT !orp G,'1 G(( G(' ".## :!"."> 21. 2 G?,.'/ -./1J

elmerich M Payne G/22 G,, G1$',1 :!*.># :&".$! 21. & EA:%+ -&A%+A>

Total 21 energy companies E1A,+. E2.,11 E21,+&A (12$1- ("$0C- 21. + E%12 -&+%.>

stimate

Source4 4MP !apital *D !ompustat

,2+.%&:

$ec-1. +. /2' &/?$(, -1/$&&? -,.'&J .,1.,&A (#.>$ ,A+%+:

9an-1: +1 /(2 &/'$(1? -'2$,' -.?2J .,A,+A (#."% ,2+%+1

Fe7-1: &A& /2 &&?$/2 -'&$/11 -.?/J .,1:,+ (#.#$ :,+A%.+

/ar-1: &:A /2, &'$('/ -&?,$,,' -.?1J +,2&,A1A (!.(( :,A:%.+

5pr-1: &2 /?1 122$&& -&2?$/'& -.22J +,A22,:+A (!.#* :,%1&

/ay-1: &. '& 12/$?'' -&21$2/( -.2/J +,2.,1 ($.(# :,:A2%&AA

9un-1: & '( 122$/2 -&(/$,'' -.21J +,:&,.& ($.** :,.%1+1

9ul-1: &A2 1' 1?1$&&( -&,2$12 -.(2J +,.:2,.A& %'.'' :,.1A%:1

5ug-1: &A: 1/ 1?/$2&2 -&,&$/2 -.(J +,++,2 %'.(! :,++%&:

Sep-1: &A 1( 1?($, -&($' -.(J +,+&.,. %'."' :,&A2%1A2ct-1: && && &'1$1( -&$1&/ -.(1J +,&A&,2:A %'.** :,&22%.2

3o*-1: &: & &'/$12' -&/?$, -.,?J +,&&A,A+ %'.!> :,2%A&2

$ec-1: + &? &'($?', -&/,$1'( -.,(J +,2,AA2 %>.>& :,2+.%:.

9an-1 &A & &1'$2'2 -&/$2( -.,,J +,2:,&& %>."$ :,2&A%:&+


4/4

5ddendums

World conomic utloo04 eal 6$P 6roth and Petroleum Consumption - 'pdate cto7er 21.

The world economy will grow *.& in #!%, from *. growth in #!&, and increasing rates to *.' in #!'/##.+ndia replaces -hina as the main driver of global L4P growth.

Llobal oil consumption will grow !."! mbpd in #!%, from growth 2revised upwards3 of !.*& mbpd in #!&For the period #!(/##! growth in oil demand is estimated from a minimum of !. mbpd, and a ma)imum of !.%( mbpd over previous year.

The intensity of oil consumption per unit of real L4P is estimated to continue to fall at a rate of around # annually.

The *nternational 7onetary $.!> $.%% $.!> !.!% !."% !.%& !.(" !.>% !.>% !.(&

11:ermany *.'& *.(# $.%! $."! !.&> !.&! !.&( !.&! !.*$ !.*$ !.#( !.#(

1*taly !.(! $.&' :#.(( :!.($ :$."* $.>$ !.#> !.!& !.!$ !.$& !.$$ !.$*

1AKapan ".(! :$."& !.(" !.&' :$.!$ $.&' !.$! $."& $.%% $.'! $.(# $.(*

1Corea$ 4outh %.&$ *.%> #.#' #.'$ *.*! #.%% *.!% *.&' *.&( *.&> *.&( *.*"

217e#ico &.!! ".$" ".$# !.*' #.!" #.*! #.>$ *.!* *.## *.*! *.** *.$>

22Betherlands !."$ !.%% :!.$% :$."' !.$! !.>$ !.>% !.'" !.>% !.'% #.!# !.'*

2.Poland *.($ ".(% !.(% !.(* *."" *.&* *.&$ *.&> *.&% *.&( *.%$ *.*"

24pain $.$# :$.%# :#.$' :!.#* !.*' *.$( #.&" #.#* #.$! !.'$ !.(> !.>"

&2Turkey '.!% >.(( #.!* ".!' #.'! *.$" #.>> *.%' *."' *."> *."> *.#(

&&3nited Cingdom !.'! !.%& $.%% !.%% #.'' #. #.#* #.#! #.#" #.!& #.!# #.$(

&+3nited 4tates #.&* !.%$ #.## !."' #."* #.&( #.>" #.>$ #.%> #.## !.'% #.!%

Other O!F #.$$ !.%! $.*> $.(( !.%( #.*" #.!' #.*> #.#' #.#( #.#$ #.$"

C$ "$02- 1$9#- 1$"2- 1$20- 1$C"- 2$10- 2$"0- 2$""- 2$2C- 2$1- 2$01- 2$0"-

* #.%! #.>$ *.>$ *.$! *.>> *.'$ *.(" *.%$ *."' *.*%

Angola *."! *.'# &.!% %.>$ ".>$ *."' *. *.(( ".#& ".%% &.!> ".*$

cuador *. (.>( &.## ".%" *.>$ :$.%# $.$% $.%! !.#" !.&$ !.>" !."&

*ran %.&> *.(& :%.%! :!.'! ".*" $.>* ".*% *.'' ".!( ".*> ".*> *.'%

*raq %."$ (.&& !*.'" %.&( :#.!# $.$* (.$& >.!! (.%$ (.&* (.!& %."%Cuwait :#.*( !$.%$ (.%( $.># $.!" !.!( #. #.(# #.(# #.'* #.'" #.(#

ibya &.$#:%#.$>!$"."':!*.&& :#".$* :%.$' ! .'( &.'> >.&$ '.#> !*. >.%'

Bigeria '.'( ".>' ".#> &.*' %.*! *.'% ".#' ".&" ".(# ".'! &.!$ "."(

Datar !'.&' !*.*> ".>> ".&> *.'> ".($ ".'& ".!( *.%" *.#' #.(> *.$"

4audi Arabia ".(% '.'% &.*> #.%( *."( *."* #.#! #.>> *.$# *.!$ *.!> #.'!

3nited Arab mirates !.%" ".>' (.## ".*# ".&( *.$$ *.!* *.#% *."% *.%" *.># *.*'

Eene5uela :!."' ".!> &.%* !.*" :".$$ :!$.$$ :%.$$ :".&$ :*.$$ :!.$$ $.$$ :!."#

PC #$20- $20- $"#- 2$2C- 2$#6- 1$#- "$0"- "$#- "$6C- "$9"- $09- "$62-

.*' $.>$ #.>' $."% $."! :$.(" $.$$ $.!" $.#! $.#* $.!'Ira5il (.&( *.'# !.(% #.(" $.!" :*.$* :!.$" #.#% #.*% #."& #.&* #.**

!hina !$.%$ '.&$ (.(& (.%' (.*$ %.>! %.*$ %.$$ %.!$ %.** %.** &.&&

!olombia *.'( %.&' ".$" ".'" ".&& #.&$ #.(( *.#! *.&( *.'! ".$> *.&(

gypt &.!& !.(% #.#* #.!$ #.!% ".!' ".#% "."> ".%> ".'% &.$* "."&

*ndia !$.#% %.%" &.$> %.'$ (.#' (.#% (."& (.&" (.%& (.($ (.(" %.%&

*ndonesia %.*> %.!( %.$* &.&> &.$# ".%% &.!$ &.&$ &.>$ %.$$ %.$$ &.#>

7alaysia (.&* &.#' &."( ".(! &.'' ".($ ".&$ &.$$ &.$$ &.$$ &.$$ ".&"

Pakistan #.&> *.%# *.>" *.%& ".$* ".#" ".&$ ".&$ &.#$ &.#$ &.#$ ".%&

;ussia ".&$ ".*$ *."$ !.*$ $.%$ :*.>* :$.%* !.$$ !.&$ !.&$ !.&$ !."!

4outh Africa *.$" *.#! #.## #.#! !. !."$ !.*" #.!! #.&! #.&' #.%$ #."!

4ingapore !&.#" %.#! *."! "."" #.'# #.#$ #.'# *.## *.!% *.#" *.#& *.$*

Taiwan !$.%* *.>$ #.$% #.#* *.(( #.#" #.%! #.>( *.$% *.$' *.!% #.'!

Thailand (.&! $.>* (.*# #.>! $.>( #."' *.#! *.&( *."$ *.*# *.!> *.!$

Other &.** ".## ".$$ ".&( *.(( *.!# ".*( ".>* ".>& ".>> ".'* ".">3on-C$ N non-PC C$01- 6 $2C- #$1C- # $"9- $91- $1#- $69- #$10- #$2- #$2- #$- $C6-

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