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Climate Change:A Perspective from the USA

National Climate Conference, BASIC Side Event Gallagher Estate, Johannesburg, South Africa

October, 2005

Jonathan PershingClimate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

B A S I C

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US Climate Related Indicators

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The US contributes the largest share of global GHG emissions…

Rest of the World

US (20%)

Global GHG Emissions

Source: WRI/CAIT, 2000 Data

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Emissions Mix

% S

hare

of

Fue

l Mix

Source: IEA Statistics

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Source: WRI/CAIT

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Change over 20th Century:Annual Mean Temperature

ºF

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US Projected Emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000 2010 2025

According to USDOE, emissions will grow about 1.4%/year, or 42% over the next 25 years

Mill

ion

tons

CO

2 (f

rom

en

ergy

)

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U.S. Climate Change Policies

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Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (1)

• Goal: to reduce US GHG intensity by 18% by 2012– Equivalent to ~4% reduction relative to BaU– Total emissions increase by 31% over 1990 levels– Further measures in 2012 if target not met

• Voluntary initiatives– Improve voluntary registry (provide baseline to give “credits” for

real reduction; likely to require legislation)– Climate VISION Partnership (12 sectors and BRT work with EPA,

DOE, DOT and USDA to reduce GHG emissions)– Climate Leaders (EPA corporate partnership with individual

companies; 50 companies now participating)

• Fuel economy standards for light trucks (20.7mpg 22.2mpg by 2007)

• Tax incentives for GHG reductions (RE, EE and sequestration)

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Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (2)

• Methane to Markets : Ministerial kickoff, November 2004

• US Climate Technology Program (CCTP) – Strategic direction and organization for about $3bn in federal

spending for climate change-related technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment

– Six complementary goals: (1) reducing emissions from energy use and infrastructure; (2) reducing emissions from energy supply; (3) capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide; (4) reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases; (5) measuring and monitoring emissions; and (6) bolstering the contributions of basic science to climate

change.

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Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (3)

• Nuclear:– Fission: Generation IV: multilateral partnership for next generation

nuclear power – Fusion: $5 Bn committed in 2003 for multi-year research program

• Hydrogen economy– $1.7 Bn, 5-year initiative for hydrogen fuel and “Freedom Car”

• Carbon capture and storage– $1 Bn, 10-year “Future-gen” demonstration project for zero-

emissions coal-based power– Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum

• Including data gathering, information exchange and joint projects• 15 partner countries

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USG Roadmap for Climate Change Technology Development and Deployment for the 21st Century

Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

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US Climate Technology Budget

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Con

serv

atio

n

T&D

Nuc

lear

Ren

ewab

le

Foss

il (in

clS

eq)

2004 (Actual) 2005 (Proposed)

Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

US DOEOther Agencies

$ Mill

ion

$ Mill

ion

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Proposed congressional policies

• GHG reduction

• GHG Reporting

• Supporting International Negotiations

• Energy Policy

• Appropriations

• Power Plants

• Transport

• Hydrogen

• Clean Coal

• Carbon Sequestration

• Buildings

• Waste recycling

• Science/Research

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McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act

• Summary: – A bill establishing a market-driven system

of greenhouse gas tradeable allowances– Cap: at 2000 levels by 2010

• Voting History:– October 2003: 43-55– June 2005: 38 - 60

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Sense of the Senate (Vote 54-43)• Congress finds that—

(1) greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing average temperatures to rise at a rate outside the range of natural variability and are posing a substantial risk of rising sea-levels, altered patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts;(2) there is a growing scientific consensus that human activity is a substantial cause of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere; and(3) mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

• Sense of the SenateCongress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that (1)will not significantly harm the United States economy; and (2)will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major

trading partners and key contributors to global emissions.

-- US Senate: June 2005

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California Policies

• Transport–Starting in 2003,10% light duty vehicles

to be zero emitting–15% of buses with zero emissions by

2008• Registry of GHGs (CCAR)• RPS: 20% by 2017• $62 million public research program• Carbon adder ($48-25/ton – in draft)

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• Goal: A regional cap-and-trade program initially covering CO2 emissions from power plants

– Stabilize emissions at current levels through 2015

– Reduce by 10% by 2020• Region statistics:

– 9 states represent 14% US GHG emissions

– 3.2% of world GHG emissions (Germany)

Others are experimenting too

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Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Source: Pew Climate Center

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Climate Action Plans

Source: Pew Climate Center

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Renewable Energy Mandates

Source: Pew Climate Center

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U.S. Climate Change Mitigation Potential

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US Renewable Resources

Geothermal

Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

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Proposed LNG Terminals

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538

1089

450

194824752985

2058

752

2100

2004

5248

2364

4101

17855751

379

2214

6081

2207

1751

1216

415

1342

490

2680

2392

1507

4189

453

2728

1232

122

2166

1544

891902

180

223

128

501

1754

3360

50

0

2058

271

1590

145

740

87359

59

2685841

772

742

6100

3093

1537

519

293

15

740

712

276

300

1949

4293

255

0

0

388

173318

107

599571

108

25

Lake Charles/New LA

0

845

469

Elba Island

Cove Point

Everett

Altimira MX

Blue Lines indicate LNGGray Lines indicate an increaseRed Lines indicate a decrease

Florida/Bahamas

Katy

OffshoreTX

0

0

New England

SouthernCalifornia

Baja MX

Mid-Atlantic0

Northern California

Eastern Canada

0

Mid-Atlantic

Flow (Average MMcfd)2004

Natural Gas Flow Patterns in 2004

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Efficiency Gains Are Possible

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

USA Germany Japan France

58%36%31%

To

ns C

O2

Eq

./Mill

. In

tl $

Source : WRI/CAIT

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Potential for CCS

• Coal powers more than ½ of all US electric supply, and is responsible for 20% of US emissions

• By 2030, additions to US coal-based electric generation will produce ~1000 MT of additional CO2

• Zero emissions technology, if applied across all new plants could reduce these emissions

• Development of this technology could have applications around the world

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Chicago Climate ExchangeCarbon Financial Instruments - Market Data

Price : Per metric ton of CO2, November 1 - 5, 2004

Vintage Last Change Change %

2003 $1.49 -0.04 -2.61%

2004 $1.36 -0.09 -6.21%

2005 $1.35 -0.10 -6.90%

2006 $1.36 -0.09 -6.21%

Volume: 44,700 metric tons CO2

The Private Sector Is Also Acting

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290 corporate facilities across 25 states & DC are buying green power

State with green power/ State with green power/ REC purchase or projectREC purchase or project

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Conclusions• Emissions in the US continue to rise, and

policies are not keeping pace.– The executive branch is particularly slow to adopt

programs, although it has begun to develop a more aggressive technology approach

– Congress is acting, although little new legislation has been passed

– State efforts are increasing, and seem likely to continue to increase

– Private sector commitments are increasing

• It is likely that US policy will shift, but significant change does not seem likely until after this Administration leaves office

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