WPA's Weekly Political Brief

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief October 12, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment

as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we will distribute these weekly data updates every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we will feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• The pre and post-debate presidential ballot.

• A look at which presidential candidate would be best to reduce the deficit and create jobs.

• Swing state polling after the presidential debate.

• Immediate reactions to Thursday night’s Vice-Presidential debate.

Weekly Summary

• After trailing by eight points in a September Pew Research Center poll, Romney now leads

Obama by four points (pg. 11).

o Part of this post-debate increase can be attributed to Romney’s improved image as a

strong leader.

• Romney leads among likely voters on two key economic issues: reducing the federal budget

deficit and job creation (pg. 12).

o These two issues are consistently the most important to voters.

• After Romney’s strong debate, he improved his position in swing states (pg. 13-15).

o Romney is in a better position in the crucial swing states of Ohio and Florida (pg. 13).

o The presidential ballot in Virginia is now tied and Obama’s lead is only two points in

Wisconsin (pg. 14).

o Romney improved his position in the Western swing states of Nevada and Colorado. (pg.

15).

• Paul Ryan has a four point advantage among registered voters when asked who won the vice-

presidential debate (pg. 16).

• Ryan scores higher than Biden on likeability and who is qualified to be president, which

demonstrates Biden’s vulnerability as incumbent (pg. 17).

54% of Americans believe that the nation is on the wrong track.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 37% 19%

Wrong Track 57% 74%

29% 27%

29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30% 31% 37% 39%

47%

66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62% 63% 57%

54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Oct-

12

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

President Obama’s job approval rating remains near 50%.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 49% 49%

Disapprove 48% 48%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46%

49% 49% 51% 49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 49%

48% 48% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

$51,394

$141,193

$16,166,398,987,912

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. national debt will increase to 80% of GDP in 2014.

Source: USDebtclock.org and the CBO

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

Democrats maintain a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot less than one month until the election.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 41% 43%

45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 43% 43%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

While President Obama’s economic approval has risen in recent weeks, 51% of Americans still disapprove of his handling of the economy.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

51%

46%

2010 Election

Job growth in 2012 averages an increase of 146,00 jobs per month compared to 2011’s meager average of 153,000 per month. A recent BLS report found that jobless claims fell 30,000 for the week; however, this report failed to include the economically distressed state of California.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

125,000 =

Number of new

jobs needed to

keep pace with

population

growth

181,000

142,000 114,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

July August September

Jobs Created by Month

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

September 2012 7.8%

After Romney’s strong debate performance, the presidential race is tied. Additionally, Romney leads in many post-debate national and swing state polls.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 47%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 46% 45% 45% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

After trailing by eight points in a September Pew Research Center poll, Romney now leads Obama by four points. Part of this post-debate increase can be attributed to Romney’s improved image as a strong leader.

43% 49% 51%

45%

6% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

September October

Romney leads Obama by four points after the first debate

Romney Obama DK/Other

38% 44%

51%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

September October

Likely Voters are split as to who they consider a strong leader

Romney Obama

Source: Pew Research Center

Romney has an advantage among likely voters on two key economic issues: reducing the federal budget deficit and job creation. These two issues are consistently the most important to voters.

46% 51%

43%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

September October

Romney holds a 15 point advantage on who would do a better job on

reducing the deficit.

Romney Obama

45% 49%

46% 41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

September October

Likely voters believe Romney would be better at “Improving the Job

Situation.”

Romney Obama

Source: Pew Research Center

Romney is in a better position in the crucial swing states of Ohio and Florida. In a recent Florida statewide poll by the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald, Romney leads Obama 51% to 44%.

44% 47%

50% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pre-debate Post-debate

Ohio Presidential Ballot

Romney Obama

Source: Real Clear Politics Pre-debate polls reflect an average of the data the week prior to the debate on 10/3/2012.

Post-debate polls reflect an average of the data the week following the debate on 10/3/2012.

46% 49% 49%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Florida Presidential Ballot

Romney Obama

The presidential ballot in Virginia is now tied and Obama’s lead is only two points in Wisconsin.

44% 48% 48% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Virginia Presidential Ballot

Romney Obama


51% 48%

44%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Wisconsin Presidential Ballot

Romney Obama

Romney improved his position in the Western swing states of Nevada and Colorado.

45% 46% 50% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Nevada Presidential Ballot

Romney Obama


46% 47% 49% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Colorado Presidential Ballot

Romney Obama

Paul Ryan has a four point advantage among registered voters when asked who won the vice-residential debate.

48% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Candidate that won the Vice-Presidential Debate

Ryan Biden

Source: CNN/ORC International

Ryan scores higher than Biden on likeability and who is qualified to be president, which demonstrates Biden’s vulnerability as an incumbent.

53%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Likeability

Ryan Biden

60% 57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Qualified to be President

Ryan Biden

Source: CNN/ORC International

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief

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