Weekly Political Events Regarding the SPDC's Election (003-2010)
WPA's Weekly Political Brief
14
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief September 21, 2012
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Transcript of WPA's Weekly Political Brief
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief September 21, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment
as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Partisan differences in how Americans see economic news coverage.
• The impact of recent attacks and protests in the Middle East on Obama’s Foreign Policy
Approval.
• American beliefs regarding free speech versus offending other nations.
Page 3
Weekly Summary
• There is a distinct partisan difference in how Americans have interpreted
media coverage of the economy (pg. 9).
o 60% of Republicans feel as though the coverage of the economy has
been mostly bad, yet only 15% of Democrats feel the same.
• President Obama has seen his foreign policy approval take a severe hit in the
wake of the attacks and protests in the Middle East (pg. 12).
o There has been an eleven point swing against President Obama from
August to September as his approval rating fell five points while his
disapproval rating rose six points.
o More Americans feel as though Mitt Romney “scares terrorists” as a
leader than President Obama.
• Following the protests in the Middle East, nearly 75% of Americans believe
protecting free speech is more important than offending other nations (pg.
13).
Page 4
29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 31% 37%
47%
66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 63% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
Nov-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
The number of American’s believing the nation is headed in the right direction moved up to 37% percent in September.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 31% 19%
Wrong Track 63% 75%
2010 Election
Page 5
President Obama’s approval rating is higher than his disapproval rating, but voters remain statistically evenly split about his performance.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 47% 48%
Disapprove 49% 49%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46% 48% 48%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49% 48% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
$51,027
$140,275
$16,043,603,124,617
The national debt rose by more than $19 billion in the past week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 7
Democrats currently hold a 1-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41% 42%
45% 46%
43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45% 41%
46% 43% 43% 44%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
Page 8
Only 45% of Americans approve of President Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
2010 Election
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
51%
45%
Page 9
60% of Republicans believe that the news they hear about the economy is “Mostly Bad” while only 15% of Democrats feel the same. The gap is more apparent when compared to August of 2011, when both parties had majority negative views. Overall, 35% of Americans believe coverage is mostly bad.
71%
33%
60% 67%
24%
35%
62%
18% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug-11 Mar-12 Sep-12
Media Coverage of the Economy as “Mostly Bad”
Republicans Overall Democrats
Source: Pew Research Center
Page 10
Job creation in August remained well below pace needed to keep up with population growth in the nation.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
August 2012 8.1%
45,000
141,000
96,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
June July August
Jobs Created by Month
Page 11
The President experienced a small bump following the Democratic National Convention, but has no managed to expand his lead in the following weeks.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 45% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 12
In the wake of the recent terrorist attacks and protests throughout the Middle East, President Obama’s foreign policy approval took a major hit. In addition, a new poll suggests that more Americans believe that Romney is more intimidating to terrorists.
39%
13%
16%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Which Candidate "Scares Terrorists" More
Obama
Unsure
Neither
Romney
54% 49%
40% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug-12 Sep-12
Obama Foreign Policy Approval Change
Approve Disapprove
Foreign Policy Source: NBC/WSJ Poll 9/12-16 Terrorism Source: Esquire Magazine
Page 13
After an anti-Islamic YouTube video sparked protest in the Middle East, nearly three-quarters of Americans believe that guaranteeing free speech is more important than not offending other nations.
Guarantee Free Speech 72%
Undecided 13%
Guarantee other nations aren't offended
15%
Should Free Speech or Not Offending Other Nations Be More Important
Source: Rasmussen Reports 9/13-14
Page 14
For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
Matt Gammon Vice President
202.470.6300
