WP5.3 Model Simulations Macao

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Macao

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Fhíìo" Yoqstmhb

\stc~ |nsd cdshnb|

Fhíìo bnd| ng h sqhg|nsnog {ogd ads}ddg sed Hsbhgsnl hgc sed Fdcnsdqqhgdhg lbnfhsd s~yd|" hgc n| bolhsdc ogsed goqsedqg ahg` oj sed bo}dq Sdko Qnzdq" ldgsqhb Yoqstmhb'

Looqcnghsd| oj ldgsqhb yongs;

Bhsnstcd; <>¹<<„8>'8=„„G

Bogmnstcd; =¹4>„4>'55„„]

\n{d; 399 `f±

Hbsnstcd; 15 “ :39f

Yqdlnynshsnog; 2:99 “ 8999 ff %\otse so Goqse

sqhg|dls.

Sdfydqhstqd; gh

Bhgc t|d; yngd hgc dtlhb~yst| joqd|s|" hqhabd

bhgc" tgyqoctlsnzd bhgc hgc |dssbdfdgs|

Ngehanshgs|; ="38> %199:.

Fhng cdmqhchsnog yqold||d|; cqotmes"

lofyotgcdc a~ lhsh|sqoyenl joqd|s jnqd|

Fhkoq cqnzdq| oj cdmqhchsnog; cdyoytbhsnog hgc

hmdngm yoytbhsnog" bhgc hahgcogfdgs"

fogoltbstqhb joqd|sq~" nghcdxthsd bh}| hgc bhl`

oj dgjoqldfdgs" jnghglnhb log|sqhngs|

Jnmtqd 8; \stc~ |nsd bolhsnog

Ozdqznd} oj |ldghqno|

8' Ah|dbngd \ldghqno; YD\DQH ah|dbngd qtg

1' Sdlegobom~ \ldghqno; Yqnfhq~ \sqny Gds}oq` \~|sdf joq Jtdb Fhghmdfdgs %YOQ98.

<' Yobnl~ \ldghqno; Go log|ncdqhsnog oj lhsh|sqoyenl dzdgs| %YOQ98.

3' Mboahb \ldghqno; Jooc yqoctlsnog



Fhíìo" Yoqstmhb

Sdlegobom~ \ldghqno;

Yqnfhq~ \sqny Gds}oq` \~|sdf joq Jtdb Fhghmdfdgs %YOQ98.

\sqny| hqd h||tfdc so ad 899$ djjdlsnzd h| jnqd

aqdh` hgc hqd fhngshngdc a~ qdctlngm jtdb bohc

dzdq~ 1 ~dhq|'

Ngnsnhb ngzd|sfdgs lo|s| hqd ₢8"=38"<450 sedqdhjsdq

fhngsdghgld lo|s| oj ₢8"845"343 hqd h||tfdc so

ad fhcd anhggthbb~0 aose ah|dc og lbdhqngm lo|s|

oj ₢=</sog anofh||'

H cn|lotgs qhsd oj 89$ eh| addg hyybndc

H bnjdsnfd oj 89 ~dhq| eh| addg |ds" }nse sed

adgdjns| cdqnzdc jqof hghb~|n| oj hzonchabd

chfhmd jqof oa|dqzdc jnqd&hjjdlsdc hqdh| ozdq

sed ydqnoc 1998&199>'

Hyybnlhanbns~

Sed Yqnfhq~ \sqny Gds}oq` \~|sdf joq Jtdb

Fhghmdfdgs %Y\G\JF. jobbo}| fhg~ qncmd| ng sed

bhgc|lhyd' Ng soshb 815= eh oj |sqny| hqd nglbtcdc

ng sen| ftgnlnyhb ybhg'

Anoye~|nlhb nfyhls; jnqd |t|ldysnanbns~

Jnqd |dzdqns~ ngcdu n| qdctldc ng sed |sqny

gds}oq`" hlsngm h| jnqd aqdh`' Sed J\N

zhbtd| |eo}g edqd hqd qdyqd|dgshsnzd

joq sed |nsthsnog 1 ~dhq| hjsdq d|shabn|e&fdgs oj sed |sqny gds}oq` %J\N zhbtd|

ots|ncd sed |sqny gds}oq` hqd gos hjjdlsdc.'

Hyybnlhanbns~

Jnqd \dzdqns~ Ngcdu %J\N.



Anoye~|nlhb nfyhls; joqd|s jnqd yqdzdgsnog

Dlogofnl znhanbns~

Sed dlogofnl hghb~|n| n| ah|dc og sed lo|s| oj

lbdhqngm |sqny| dzdq~ 1 ~dhq|" adlht|d ogb~ }nse sen|

jqdxtdgl~ lhg sed~ ad log|ncdqdc 899$ djjdlsnzd h|

jnqd aqdh`'

Nj }d h||tfd chfhmd nj atqgs h| jobbo}|;

Hqsnjnlnhb bhgc; ₢899"999 eh&8

Hqhabd bhgc; ₢8"999 eh&8 Joqd|s; ₢1"999 eh

&8%YGCJLN" 1994.

Ahqd bhgc; ₢199 eh&8

Cdmqhcdc bhgc; ₢899 eh&8

Ah|dc og hghb~|n| oj sed jnqd aqdh` djjdls" >45 eh

lotbc ad yqosdlsdc hggthbb~' Sed hzdqhmd chfhmd

hzoncdc n| ₢<"118 eh&8

atqgs'

Hbseotme sen| hghb~|n| cod| gos log|ncdq jnqd dusngmtn|engm hgc qdybhgsngm lo|s|" sed Y\G\JF hyydhq| so ad

zdq~ znhabd' Qd|tbs| hqd edhznb~ ngjbtdgldc a~ sed 199< joqd|s jnqd| }enle }dqd qd|yog|nabd joq foqd sehg seqdd&

xthqsdq| oj sed soshb chfhmd ads}ddg 1998 hgc 199>'

d̂hq Lbdhqngm lo|s Hzoncdc chfhmd

9 ₢ 8"=38"<45

8 ₢ <"954"399

1 ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ <"954"399

< ₢ <"954"399

3 ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ <"954"399

4 ₢ <"954"399: ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ <"954"399

= ₢ <"954"399

5 ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ <"954"399

> ₢ <"954"399

89 ₢ <"954"399

Soshb ₢ :"<<4":15 ₢ <9"543"999

Cn|lotgs jhlsoq 89$

Gds yqd|dgs zhbtd₢ 83"1>>"489

Jnqd&hjjdlsdc hqdh Hzoncdc atqgngm

Gds Yqd|dgs Zhbtd

Lbdhqngm lo|s|; H' Ngnsnhb A' Hjsdq 1 ~dhq|



Fhíìo" Yoqstmhb

Yobnl~ \ldghqno;

Go log|ncdqhsnog oj lhsh|sqoyenl dzdgs| %YOQ98.

Sed 199< joqd|s jnqd| ng sed qdmnog }dqd oj |tle

tgyqdldcdgsdc fhmgnstcd sehs ns n| xtd|snoghabd

}edsedq sed Y\G\JF lotbc ehzd fhcd h cnjjdqdgld'

Ng ybhggngm sdqf|" ogd lhg sh`d sed znd} sehs |tle

lhsh|sqoyenl dzdgs| lhggos ad hzoncdc hgc hllotgsdc

joq' Edgld" ng sen| yobnl~ |ldghqno }d log|ncdq sed

yosdgsnhb adgdjns| oj sed Y\G\JF a~ boo`ngm hs sed

bh|s cdlhcd }nseots 199<'

Yqojnshanbns~;

Sed hggthb hqdh hzoncdc jqof atqgngm n| qdctldc

jqof >45 so 83= eh' Eo}dzdq" sed lofyo|nsnog oj sed

atqgdc hqdh |eo}| h enmedq ydqldgshmd oj hqsnjnlnhb

%hgc hqhabd. bhgc" ctd so }enle sed hzdqhmd chfhmd

hzoncdc nglqdh|d| jqof ₢<118 so ₢3>:1 ydq eh' Sed

gd} GYZ lhbltbhsnog" t|ngm sed |hfd h||tfysnog| h|

ng sed Sdlegobom~ %YOQ98. |ldghqno" n| |eo}g qnmes' Nj fhkoq jnqd| |tle h| ng 199< lhggos ad hzoncdc" sed

sdlegobom~ hyydhq| so ad kt|s gos yqojnshabd' ]edg

log|ncdqngm dusngmtn|engm lo|s| hgc qdybhgsngm lo|s|

eo}dzdq" sed hghb~|n| }otbc yqoahab~ dh|nb~ ad

yo|nsnzd' Hb|o h bogmdq ybhggngm eoqn{og lotbc hlendzd

sen|'

Gds Yqd|dgs Zhbtd

Lo|s&djjdlsnzdgd|| ngcnlhsoq|;

Sed lo|s ydq edlshqd oj bhgc }edqd atqgngm n| hzoncdc n| ₢3<89'

Sed lo|s ydq ngehanshgs }otbc ad ₢54 ydq ~dhq'

d̂hq Lbdhqngm lo|s Hzoncdc chfhmd

9 ₢ 8"=38"<45

8 ₢ =<8"4=5

1 ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ =<8"4=5

< ₢ =<8"4=5

3 ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ =<8"4=5

4 ₢ =<8"4=5: ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ =<8"4=5

= ₢ =<8"4=5

5 ₢ 8"835"343 ₢ =<8"4=5

> ₢ =<8"4=5

89 ₢ =<8"4=5

Soshb ₢ :"<<4":15 ₢ ="<84"=59

Cn|lotgs jhlsoq 89$

Gds yqd|dgs zhbtd₢ &8:<"=95

Hzoncdc atqgngm; H' Hbb ~dhq| 1998&199> A' Hbb ~dhq| duldys 199<



Fhíìo" Yoqstmhb

Mboahb \ldghqno;

Jooc yqoctlsnog

Sed jooc yqoctlsnog |ldghqno |dbdls| sed sdlegobom~

}nse sed enmed|s hmqnltbstqhb yqoctlsnzns~ %anofh||.

joq dhle ldbb }edqd h enmedq yqoctlsnzns~ sehg ng sed

ah|dbngd |ldghqno n| hlendzdc' Sed nfybdfdgshsnog

lo|s| joq sed soshb |stc~ hqdh hqd lhbltbhsdc hgc lo|s&

yqoctlsnzns~ qdbhsnog| h||d||dc' So jhlnbnshsd

lofyhqn|og ads}ddg cnjjdqdgs |stc~ |nsd|" hbb lo|s|

hqd duyqd||dc ng Dtqo'

+8=9> `m/eh

+85 `m/ngehanshgs

\loyd joq nglqdh|dc %n'd' gos bo|s. yqoctlsnog

^ndbc nglqdh|d

Anoye~|nlhb nfyhls; ~ndbc nglqdh|d

^ndbc nglqdh|d ng <<$ oj hyybnlhabd hqdh %hbb hqhabd

bhgc.

Hzdqhmd ha|obtsd ~ndbc nglqdh|d; 8=9> ̀ m/eh

Hzdqhmd ~ndbc nglqdh|d; gh %hzoncdc atqgngm.

Dlogofnl ngcnlhsoq|

Hzdqhmd lo|s| %hqhabd bhgc h| |ehqd oj soshb.;

Ngzd|sfdgs lo|s; 851 Dtq/eh Tgnshq~ lo|s ~dhq 8; 89: Dtq/sog%~q.

Tgnshq~ lo|s bnjdsnfd; <> Dtq/sog

Hmmqdmhsd ngcnlhsoq|;

\stc~ |nsd; 8'= fnbbnog Dtqo Htmfdgsdc hggthb yqoctlsnog; 8<< sog

Htmfdgsdc soshb yqoctlsnog; 8<<< sog



Fhíìo" Yoqstmhb

Loglbtcngm qdfhq`|

Sed ah|dbngd |nftbhsnog |eo}| h zdq~ enme jnqd |t|ldysnanbns~ ng ozdq >9$ oj sed hqdh' Anofh|| yqoctlsnog n|foqd sehg 84 sog/eh ng >4$ oj sed hqdh %loqqd|yogcngm so Yngt| yngh|sdq hgc Dtlhb~yst| mboatbt| joqd|s|.'

Sed yqnfhq~ |sqny gds}oq` |~|sdf joq jtdb fhghmdfdgs %Y\G\JF. }h| yqnoqnsn|dc a~ |lndgsn|s| hgc bolhb

|sh`deobcdq| so logsqob }nbcjnqd|' ]edqdh| sen| yqdzdgsnzd joqd|sq~ fdh|tqd qdyqd|dgs| hg nfyoqshgs

ng|sqtfdgs hmhng|s joqd|s jnqd|" sed qdfozhb oj zdmdshsnog sdgc| so duyo|d ahqd |onb so sed dqo|nzd djjdls| oj

qhngjhbb' Ng jndbc duydqnfdgs|" qhngjhbb |nftbhsnog| }dqd t|dc so h||d|| dqo|nzd yqold||d|" |tle h| qtgojj hgc

|dcnfdgs bo||' Focdbbngm oj sed Y\G\JF |eo}dc sehs og hzdqhmd >45 eh oj bhgc %tgcdq zhqnot| bhgc t|d|"

ats fo|sb~ joqd|s. lhg ad yqosdlsdc jqof atqgngm hggthbb~' Ozdq h cdlhcd" sen| n| >4=5 eh' Sen| n| qdhbn|dc

a~ nfybdfdgsngm h |sqny gds}oq` oj 815= eh' Duydqnfdgshb jngcngm| lhg edby oysnfn{d fhghmdfdgs oj sed

|sqny| so fngnfn{d |onb dqo|nog" ats ns n| lbdhq sehs sed zh|s hqdh |hzdc jqof atqgngm hb|o hzonc| sed

nglqdh|dc |onb dqo|nog yqoabdf| jobbo}ngm }nbcjnqd|' Dlogofnl dzhbthsnog oj sed sdlegobom~ }nse sed focdb

}h| zdq~ yo|nsnzd'

Ng sed }oq`|eoy so dzhbthsd fognsoqngm hgc focdbbngm qd|tbs|" |sh`deobcdq| logjnqfdc sednq yqdjdqdgld joq

sed Y\G\JF %hgc yqd|lqnadc jnqd|." dzhbthsngm ns |bnmesb~ enmedq sehg ng sed |dlogc }oq`|eoy “ ydqehy|

adlht|d oj nglqdh|dc `go}bdcmd cdqnzdc jqof ynbos nfybdfdgshsnog oj sed sdlegobom~' Ng oqcdq so yqofosd

sed sdlegobom~" qdloffdgcdc hlsnog| ng jotq cofhng| %qdmtbhsnog" h}hqdgd||" joqd|s ngsdqzdgsnog hqdh|"

hgc jtgcngm. }dqd hmqddc a~ sed yhqsnlnyhgs|'

H yobnl~ |ldghqno dulbtcngm sed 199< joqd|s jnqd chfhmd jqof sed lo|s&adgdjns hghb~|n| qd|tbsdc ng |bnmesb~

gdmhsnzd gds yqd|dgs zhbtd' Eo}dzdq" jnqd dusngmtn|engm hgc qdybhgsngm lo|s| }dqd gos log|ncdqdc hgc lotbc

sny sed ahbhgld' Hb|o" d|shabn|engm hgc fhngshngngm sed Y\G\JF joq h ydqnoc bogmdq sehg 89 ~dhq| lotbc

fh`d ns dlogofnlhbb~ znhabd dzdg nj sed |sqtlstqd lotbc gos yqdzdgs lhsh|sqoyenl }nbcjnqd| jqof olltqngm'

Sed mboahb |ldghqno joq jooc yqoctlsnog |eo}| sehs hbseotme sed sdlegobom~ n| gos yqnfhqnb~ ngsdgsdc so

yqoctls lqoybhgc %}enle n| h bnfnsdc bhgc t|d ng sed hqdh." ns| nfyhls ng hzoncngm sed atqgngm oj lqoy| n|

gosnldhabd' Joq |nfybnlns~ sed hghb~|n| h||tfd| sehs hbb jnqd| }otbc hjjdls lqoy| ng sed jndbc %n'd' olltq adjoqd

ehqzd|sngm.' Sed ngzd|sfdgs lo|s| so yqosdls lqoy yqoctlsnog hqd" }edg hssqnatsdc dxthbb~ so hbb hqdh|

}edqd atqgngm }otbc ehzd addg hzoncdc" bo} hs ₢<>/sog mqhng'

Sed hghb~|d| |eo} sehs ngzd|sngm ng h |sqny gds}oq` n| znhabd' H| sed focdb hghb~|d| }dqd ydqjoqfdc joq h

|ngmbd |sqny gds}oq` |~|sdf" ns n| gos gdld||hqnb~ sed ad|s bh~&ots oq fh~ gos ehzd sed fo|s dlogofnl |sqny

cdg|ns~' Qd|tbs| oashngdc }dqd ah|dc og |dzdqhb h||tfysnog| hgc ah|dc og hg hghb~|n| oj hqdh| atqgdc ng

sed ydqnoc 1998&199>' ]enbd sed bogm&sdqf hzdqhmd hqdh atqgdc lotbc cdznhsd jqof sed oa|dqzdc atqgdc

hqdh| ng sen| ydqnoc" ns n| tgcdq jtstqd lbnfhsd lehgmd bn`db~ sehs }nbcjnqd| }nbb nglqdh|d qhsedq sehg cdlqdh|d"

ng }enle lh|d sed nfyhls| oj nfybdfdgsngm |sqny gds}oq`| lhg ad dzdg foqd nfyoqshgs' Qd|tbs| jqof

duydqnfdgshb qd|dhqle |eotbc ad sh`dg ngso hllotgs so qdctld dqo|nog qn|` ng |sqny|" hgc lotbc hb|o edby

cdzn|d fhghmdfdgs |sqhsdmnd| joq atqgdc hqdh| %}enle so |ofd dusdgs }nbb hb}h~| ad tghzonchabd.'

WP5.3 Model Simulations Macao

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