WORLDWIDE NGV UPDATE :GROWTH & TRENDS

Working Party on GasUnited Nations

Palais Nations, Geneva20 January 2010

Presented by: Jeffrey Seisler

on behalf of:

Overview of the Presentation• General ‘state of the NGV union’ worldwide- NGV growth- Fuelling stations- Vehicle availability• Road map of developments and potentials,

including L-NGVs (& L-CNG) and biomethane in vehicles

• NGV challenges faced by the gas industry worldwide

World NGV GrowthVehicle Numbers & % Growth Rate

9,439,549

7,546,176

5,647,3144,687,203

3,850,6573,254,841

2,309,974

10,890,717

15

25

3430

2218

41

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

NGV Growth (%)Updated Dec 2009: Data from Gas Vehicles Report

Data source: The GVR, December 2009

World CNG Fuelling Station Growth

5,4826,666

7,8429,077

10,647

12,21914,169

16,27822

18 1617 15 16

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

% A

nnua

l Gro

wth

Rat

e

Fuel

ling

stat

ions

YearsFS FS % Growth

Projections of NGV GrowthIGU Triennium Report 2006-2009

Natural Gas for VehiclesPresented 5-9 October 2009

World Gas Conference, Buenos Aires

• Several scenarios based upon 10% target of total vehicle fleet

• Different rates of oil price increases• 2-3% vehicle fleet growth

Projected World NGV Growth to 2030[business as usual scenario]

Total NGV car park: Business As Usual scenario

512

29

53

76

104

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

equi

vale

nt N

GV

s

Russian Federation & C.I.S.

Latin America and the Caribbean

North America

Middle East

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Africa

Total:

Natural Gas for Vehicles (NGV), International Gas Union 2009, Working Cmte. 5 Sub Cmte. 3 Final Report

Million Equivalent NGVs

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NGV TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE

• Technology is commercial in many parts of the world• More OEM Products available than any other

alternative fuel vehicles– ~65 Manufacturers worldwide producing 295+

vehicle models & engines (outside China)– ~53 Chinese OEMs Making 72 LDV models & 29

HDV models• Some countries are shifting away from retrofits in

favor of OEM NGVs

Updated January 2010

VW Passat TSI EcoFuel(Turbo Milestone)

Turbo charging is widely recognized ‚tipping point‘ for wide acceptance of light duty diesel vehicles....and a similar impact on NGVs is expected

ource: Volkswagen AG

The Latest NGV of 2009

OEM Leaders Speak Favorably about NGVs

• “Methane gas is by far the most accessible fuel as an alternative to diesel.” Lars Mårtensson, Environmental Director of Volvo Trucks.

• “Natural gas is the only real, immediate alternative to petrol.” Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat Group & Chrysler Group.

Some Customers Agree…and help drive the OEMs

• AT&T Commits to 8,000 Natural Gas Vehicles – $350 Million, March 10, 2009 | USA, Dallas

• Largest ever US NGV Commitment• AT&T ’sends signal’ to auto makers

$565 Million over 10 Years Reduces Carbon Emissions by 211,000 Metric Tons

• 1,000 new or saved jobs for next five years

L-NGV Markets Will Grow with LNG Global Trading

LNG VEHICLES

Cummins Westport ISL-G (LNG) Engine

LNG Garbage Trucks (Barcelona)

Mercedes LNG Econic (NL)

LNG gas turbine: RussiaSource: Russian Railways, Moscow, Russia

LNG-Fuelled Vehicles

NorwayDistribution & Ferries

Fueling the ferry Tupolev LNG Plane

LNG for Port Applications

LNG FUELLING STATIONS: USA

LNG & CNG Fuelling station Lleida, Spain(One of 3 in Spain)

CNG Dispenser

LNG Dispenser

M6

M56

CHive LNG REFUELLING NETWORK UK

M48M4

M5

M25

M40 9

11

31

2620

1

42

38 A1

Lesmahagow

Wolverhampton

Bristol

Carlisle

Castleford

Flamstead Shepshed

LondonderryTebay

A1M

23

M1

M62 Lymm

Ilkeston

10M74

Shepshed

LNG FUELLING STATIONSCHINA

1ST Chinese LNG station: Designed for 100 buses per day

Fueling Station Option…with L-CNG

(Liquefied-to-compressed natural gas)• Flexibility of supply

(liquid & gaseous at same facility)

• Pump required; no compressor (gasification to CNG at 200 bar)

• Off-pipeline station development SHAANXI L-CNG Demonstration Project

IANGV Advocates International Fuelling Station Signage

• Advocated as UN ‘Consolidated Resolution’ in March 2010

• Ultimately to be part of Int’l Treaty on Road Signage as a permanent, approved road sign (with CNG & LPG signage)

Biomethane: NGVs are Part of a Renewable

Energy Strategy

(Energy Relevance....i.e. “methane sex appeal”)

RENEWABLE BIOMETHANEMultifaceted Solution to Multifaceted Problems

• Feedstock from various waste products– Agricultural (animal, plant & wood: not food supply!)– Sewage from water purification– Urban waste

• Biogas feedstock conversion efficiencies 40-70%• Injected into natural gas grid or supplied locally• Can reduce <100% CO2 emissions compared to

gasoline car on a well-to-wheel basis• Potential to replace 20% of petroleum in European

transport sector by 2030• Production infrastructure required!!

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction of Biomethane Fuel Chains

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Biogas(manure)

Biogas(energycrops)

SNG(wastewood)

CNG gasoline diesel

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (W

TT a

nd c

arbo

n co

nten

t of f

uel)

in [g

CO

2 eq

v./M

J fu

el]

-187% -55% -65% -19%

Source: Concawe/EUCAR 2003, Wuppertal Institute et al. 2006

-GHG balance is dominatedby biomass chain:

-Fermentation of liquid manureavoids CH4 emissions of alternative manure disposal and, thus, receives high GHG bonus

negative GHG emissions (-187%)!

-Cultivation of energy cropsinduces energy use and GHGemissions (incl. N2O)

net emission reduction (-55%)compared to fossil options

-Use of waste wood is favourablefor SNG balance

RENEWABLE BIOGAS-to-BIOMETHANE The Environmentally ‘Closed Loop’

Liquefied-Bio-Gas (LBG) in Sweden

LCO2 & LBG Fuelling Stations

(Bio)Landfill Gas-LNG Production (USA)

Gas composition/quality is an ‘open’ issue, especially for landfill gas entering the pipeline network.

CHALLENGE OF BIOGAS INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS• Investment in bio-digesters required

…starting NOW• Permits, local citizen input, and

construction takes time (but ‘learning curve’ experiences can speed development)

• Steady supply of feedstock is essential• Biomethane applications provide

energy companies with avenues to meet renewable obligations & earn carbon credits

NGV TRENDS & CONCLUSIONS

….INTO THE FUTURE

SUMMARY: WORLD WIDE TRENDS• CNG will continue to grow; maybe not at the

same rate as the past few years, but in many countries, very steadily

• LNG popularity will help drive the L-NGV market

- China; Australia; Thailand; US; Spain; Russia; Netherlands, Korea, etc.

• Biogas-to-biomethane will advance, but will be dependent on public commitment to new waste management infrastructure (enhanced by but not necessarily due to gas industry support)

Powertrain Landscapes 2007 & 2020

NGVs = 11-14% in 2020

ConclusionsThe future for NGVs is positive!

• Long-term price advantage compared to oil and bio-liquids will be the main driver.

• Countries must focus on success factors.• Government policies must be long-term &

balanced among the alternative fuels.• Natural gas industry would benefit from a

clearer, long term strategic vision of their product’s flexibility, particularly in the transport sector:

- CNG - Cars - LNG - Trucks & Buses- L-CNG - Marine applications - Biogas-Biomethane - Railway applications

• Continued focus on environmental and climate benefits.

• Harmonized standards must be advocated continually.

• Maintain vigilance and concern for safety (especially cylinders and fuelling).

• Better communications about NGV: Yes, vehicles can run on clean burning natural gas!!

ConclusionsThe future for NGVs is positive!

12th Annual IANGV Conferencewww.ngv2010roma.com

International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles – IANGVwww.iangv.orgBrett Jarman

Executive Directorbjarman@iangv.org

Martin SiefertVice President – Govt and International Affairs

m.siefert@svgw.ch

WORLDWIDE NGV UPDATE :GROWTH & TRENDS

Working Party on GasUnited Nations

Palais Nations, Geneva20 January 2010

Presented by: Jeffrey Seisler

on behalf of: