WORLDWIDE IC INDUSTRY ECONOMIC UPDATE AND FORECAST
Transcript of WORLDWIDE IC INDUSTRY ECONOMIC UPDATE AND FORECAST
INTRODUCTION
The semiconductor industry data in ASIC 1998 is analyzed and presented using two differentmethods. One describes the ÒmarketÓ for semiconductors while the other examines the semicon-ductor ÒproductionÓ or ÒsalesÓ of the device manufacturers. In ICEÕs analysis, total worldwidesemiconductor production equals worldwide semiconductor consumption in any given year.Figure 2-1 shows some of the assumptions and definition guidelines to which ICE will adherethroughout ASIC 1998.
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-1
2 WORLDWIDE IC INDUSTRYECONOMIC UPDATE AND FORECAST
Figure 2-1. Figure Key
• All figures that include “market” in the title: market is considered equal to consumption. The North American market is what is sold within the geographical borders of North America.
• The sum of individual companies’ “sales” exceeds the total world “production.” A company's sales could include its device sales, whether produced internally or externally, and its sales of wafers to another semiconductor company. Production figures attempt to not double-count “foundry” sales.
• “Merchant” semiconductor production, sales, or market figures include North American captive (e.g., Digital and Hewlett-Packard) merchant sales, but not internal transfers at the captives.
• All figures that describe “sales or production by company” include all sales or production regardless of where the devices are produced or sold. For example, all of Texas Instruments' semiconductor sales or production, including those from its Japanese and European facilities, would be listed in the North American company semiconductor segment.
• In all of ICE’s sales and production figures, internal transfers and ASIC NRE revenue are included.
• “Semiconductor” sales and production figures include ICs and discretes but do not include hybrids.
• The former Eastern European market and production figures are not included in the European or world forecasts (but are discussed at the end of this section).
Source: ICE 11339L
Figure 2-2 lists ICEÕs ASIC 1998 economic assumptions. These economic expectations are thebases for ICEÕs semiconductor industry estimates and forecasts. As shown, 1996Õs IC market wasmore influenced by ASPs (-10 percent) than by unit shipments (+2 percent). The 1997 forecastedassumptions will be discussed in greater detail later in this section.
Figure 2-3 shows the 1992 through 1996 actual GNP or GDP (Gross Domestic Product) changes,and the 1997 forecast for five major economies. The big story for the first half of the 1990Õs wasthe weakness of the Japanese economy and the strength of the yen. However, beginning in 1996,the yen began to weaken significantly and the Japanese economy began to rebound.
In October of 1996, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained further strength in JapanÕs politi-cal landscape. Many economic observers now believe that because of the LDPÕs historical recordof ÒcarefulÓ change, the needed push for swift fiscal policy measures and deregulation will nottake place. Even the LDP conceded that without major changes in the current economic infra-structure, Japanese GDP annual growth will hover around 1.75 percent for the rest of the decade.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-2
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*1997 and beyond worldwide figures use 2Q97 exchange rates (see currency fluctuation comments in Figure 2-8).
U.S. GNP/GDP GROWTH U.S. ELECTRONICSYSTEM PRODUCTION
WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICSYSTEM SALES
WORLDWIDE MERCHANTIC UNIT SHIPMENTS
WORLDWIDE MERCHANT IC ASP
2.0
3.9
2.5
1.0
–0.7
3.0
7
4 4
2
5
8
17
45
64
8
18183L
Yea
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Yea
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erce
nt
Ch
ang
e
-1
0
1
2
3
4
97969594939291908988 0
3
6
9
12
15
979695949392919089880
5
10
15
20
97969594939291908988
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
979695949392919089880
5
10
15
20
97969594939291908988
(FCST) (FCST)
(FCST) (FCST)
(FCST)
4.0
2.5
3.43.1
13 13
9 911
14
68
2123
–8
5
–8
6
1216
24
–10
2
1717
6
13
4
0
14
8
16
Source: ICE
Figure 2-2. ICEÕs Economic Assumptions*
For 1996, three of the five major economic regions displayed less growth than was registered in1995. In the U.S., the strong 1996 3.4 percent GDP increase surprised many, with 1997 growth fore-cast to moderate only slightly. The European economy was the slowest growing of the five majorregions in 1996.
With the Asia/Pacific region representing about 56 percent of the worldÕs population (expected tobe 62 percent in 2020), and with this segment focusing on improving infrastructure for industry,1996 GDP growth rates for the Pacific Rim and China were still very strong. As shown, the 1996GDP growth rates of the Pacific Rim region and China were about twice that (or more) of the U.S.,Europe, and Japan.
Since 1994, the Chinese government has engaged in an ÒausterityÓ program in an attempt to coolits economy to an eight percent annual GDP growth rate. Because it is almost impossible to pre-cisely hit such targets, it is now believed that the Chinese economy will expand by about nine per-cent in 1997.
The varying and moderating GDP growth rates of the major economic regions, as well as strongcapital expenditure budgets, are expected to help keep semiconductor industry growth in anarrow range for the remainder of the 1990Õs. Many still believe that 1984Õs 50 percent increase inthe semiconductor market can not be duplicated. However, if the Japanese economy was boom-ing in 1995 instead of slumping, the semiconductor market would have once again approached orexceeded that 50 percent growth figure!
One factor that has historically had a significant effect on the reporting of worldwide sales andmarket levels is exchange rates (Figure 2-4). When examining the sales and market figures, it mustbe remembered, for example, that if a Japanese company had the same sales (in yen) in 1996 as in1995, when converted to and reported in dollars, a 14 percent decrease would have been shown!
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-3
Country/Segment
U.S.
Europe
Japan
Pacific Rim
China
1992 1993 1994
2.0
0.8
1.5
5.9
12.8
3.0
–0.6
0.2
6.2
10.2
4.0
2.5
0.8
7.6
11.3
Sources: Consensus Economics/Blue Chip Economic Indicators 18934G
Percent Growth
1995
2.5
2.9
0.9
7.9
9.5
1996
3.4
1.4
3.6
7.1
8.7
1997(FCST)
3.1
2.2
1.9
6.1
9.0
Figure 2-3. Real GDP Growth
ICE uses 2Q97 exchange rates for the 1998 market forecast and beyond. Most European andJapanese currency levels have had a noticeable impact on the overall semiconductor market fig-ures over the past few years. Strong European currencies and a very strong yen helped inflate the1994 and 1995 semiconductor market figures when reported in dollars.
For 1996, currency fluctuations had a tremendous ÒnegativeÓ impact on the semiconductor dollarmarket figures. In 1996, European and Japanese market figures (when reported in dollars) wereÒdeflatedÓ by about four and 14 percent, respectively.
Figure 2-5 illustrates how quickly the Japanese yen gained strength in early 1993. Besides makingthe Japanese sales and production dollar figures look stronger, it is estimated that each time thedollar falls one yen, the Japanese auto and electronics industries lose 50 billion yen (Å $500 mil-lion) a year in revenue. However, as shown, the yen has recovered to levels not seen since 1Q93.This has been welcome news to most Japanese companies.
ELECTRONIC SYSTEM PRODUCTION
Figure 2-6 examines the market relationship between semiconductor component and electronicsystem production. The semiconductor compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is forecast to bealmost twice the rate of electronic systems due to the continuing increase in the use of semicon-ductors in electronic systems. As will be shown later in this section, IC value in PCs is about 30-35 percent of the total system price.
Because of the increasing pervasiveness of semiconductors in electronic equipment, the overallÒpercent semiconductorÓ figure will increase over time. For example, the Òpercent semiconduc-torÓ figure averaged 10.9 for 1983-1991 and is forecast to average 17.9 percent for 1992-2002. Theaverage yearly gain of the Òpercent semiconductorÓ figure from 1996 through 2002 is forecast atabout 1.6 percentage points.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-4
Country(Currency)
U.K. (Pound)
France (Franc)
Germany (Mark)
Japan (Yen)
1995/1994(%)
19931993/1992
(%)
3
10
11
8
0.67
5.72
1.66
110
–18
–8
–6
13
0.65
5.54
1.62
102
3
4
3
8
1994 19951994/1993
(%)
0.63
4.99
1.44
94
1996/1995(%)
–2
–2
–5
–16
1997/1996(FCST, %)
6
15
–16
–7
1996
0.64
5.11
1.51
109
1997(FCST)
0.60
5.88
1.75
117
11406ADSource: ICE
Figure 2-4. Japanese and European Exchange Rates (Per Dollar)
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-5
18935JSource: ICE
Yen
Per
Do
llar
127
120
106 106.5
108 107
104
999996
84
95
102
106108 109
113
82
90
98
106
114
122
130
3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q1992
122119
115
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Figure 2-5. The YenÕs Dramatic Fluctuations
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Wo
rld
wid
e E
lect
ron
ic E
qu
ipm
ent
Sal
es(B
illio
ns
of
Do
llars
)
Wo
rld
wid
e S
emic
on
du
cto
r P
rod
uct
ion
Val
ue
(Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs)
PercentSemiconductor
Year
11.6 13.4 15.7 18.8 16.2 17.416.2 18.7 22.6 25.620.4
*Including captive "if sold" value.11082AESource: ICE
6885
110
150138
149
176
209
390
2531,010
1,120
1,520
312
1,380
1,243
922
851800
701
633585
1992-2002Worldwide Electronic
Equipment SalesCAGR = 10%
1992-2002Worldwide SemiconductorProduction Value*CAGR = 19%
Figure 2-6. Semiconductor and Electronic Equipment Sales Trends (1992-2002)
In estimating the worldwide electronic system production, ICE subtracted the electronic compo-nent values from published (EIA, EIAJ, etc.) total electronics production figures so as not to doublecount or overestimate actual system sales. The electronic components segment includes all activedevices (e.g., ICs and discretes) as well as relays, speakers, antennas, disks, capacitors, etc. Becauseall of these components are used in building various electronic systems, including their salesvolume with system sales would falsely inflate (by double counting the component values) truesystem sales figures.
As was shown, semiconductor components accounted for 16.2 percent of total electronic systemsales value in 1996 and are forecast to be 25.6 percent in 2002. It should be noted that 1996Õs per-cent semiconductor figure dropped 2.6 percentage points. This significant decline was a result ofthe correction from the ÒinflatedÓ DRAM pricing effects that impacted the 1994 and 1995 figures(in which the percent semiconductor number displayed an unsustainable average annual increaseof almost three points). It should be obvious that consistent semiconductor industry growth ulti-mately depends upon a healthy electronic system market. This relationship has continuouslyproven to be inseparable.
As shown in Figure 2-7, North America is the largest producer of electronic equipment in theworld. It should be noted that almost all of the 1984-1996 loss in the North American share of elec-tronic equipment production was offset by gains in the ROW region.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-6
2002(FCST)
NorthAmerica
40%
ROW27%
Europe20%
Japan13%
Europe18%
Japan16%
ROW11%
NorthAmerica
55%1984
$275B
1996
Europe19%
Japan16%
ROW25%
NorthAmerica
40%
$851B
1997(FCST)
Europe19%
Japan16%
ROW25%
NorthAmerica
40%
$920B $1,520B
Source: ICE 13747W
Figure 2-7. Electronic Equipment Production
North American system producers are heavily concentrated in the fast growing PC and telecom-munications segments. Although the overall U.S. economy grew less in 1995 than in 1994, the PCand telecommunications markets were still very healthy. This trend continued throughout 1996,and is the reason the U.S. gained one point of marketshare in 1996.
Through 2002, ICE forecasts that the North American region will hold onto its 1996 marketsharewhile the ROW region will increase two points. It is forecast that the Japanese region will con-tinue to lose marketshare, declining three points from 1996 to 2002 and displaying only a sevenpercent CAGR.
The expected loss of system production marketshare in the Japanese region is not due to a fore-casted slumping economy through 2002. The loss is primarily due to the continued shift ofJapanese-owned system production to ROW locations. The Japanese companies attribute thismovement to the need to take advantage of lower labor costs, getting ÒcloseÓ to many electronicsystem markets (e.g., China) that are currently in their infancy, and fleeing the highly regulatedand restrictive Japanese infrastructure.
The trend of North American, Japanese, and European system producers taking advantage of lowoffshore labor costs, coupled with the demonstrated capability of Korea and other Asia-Pacificcountries to supply personal computers and other electronic systems, is spurring the steadyincrease in ROW-based electronic system production. Figure 2-8 shows worldwide electronicequipment production by producing region for 1993-1996 as well as ICEÕs forecast for 1997.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-7
North America
Japan
Europe
ROW
Total
GEOGRAPHICSEGMENT
ELECTRONIC SYSTEM PRODUCTION ($B)
1993/1992 would show about a 6 percent gain withoutexchange rate fluctuations.1994/1993 would show about an 8 percent gain withoutexchange rate fluctuations.1995/1994 would show about an 11 percent gain withoutexchange rate fluctuations.1996/1995 would show about a 10 percent gain withoutexchange rate fluctuations.
11337YSource: ICE
1993
242
118
130
143
633
1993/1992PERCENTCHANGE
8
6
7
12
81
1
2
19941994/1993PERCENTCHANGE
274
126
139
162
701
13
7
7
13
112
19951995/1994PERCENTCHANGE
311
140
161
188
800
13
11
16
16
143
19961996/1995PERCENTCHANGE
339
137
166
209
851
1997(FCST)
370
142
178
232
922
9
–2
3
11
64
1997/1996PERCENTCHANGE
9
4
7
11
8
3
4
Figure 2-8. Worldwide Electronic System Production
Using local currencies instead of U.S. dollars shows that worldwide electronic system productionhas surged from only a six percent increase in 1993 to a 10 percent growth rate in 1996. Using localcurrencies instead of estimated 1996 exchange rates, JapanÕs electronic equipment productionwould have registered a strong 13 percent increase in 1996 instead of a two percent decline.
THE WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS INFRASTRUCTURE
The worldwide electronics marketplace can be thought of as an inverted pyramid (Figure 2-9). Ingeneral, the semiconductor, semiconductor equipment, and semiconductor materials markets areall ultimately dependent upon healthy electronic system sales.
As shown, 1996 was a very difficult year for the overall semiconductor industry. It was oneof the very rare years where the semiconductor market declined while the electronic systemmarketplace grew.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-8
3
ELECTRONIC SYSTEM SALES
$851B ($922B)
SEMICONDUCTOR SALES
$138B ($149B)
1
SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
SALES $36B ($33B)
2
13402AC
Including CaptivesIncluding Wafer Fab,Assembly, and Test EquipmentIncluding Chemicals and Gases,Packaging Materials, Wafers, and Photomasks
1
2
3
Source: ICE
( ) = 1997 Forecast
$20.3B
($23.2B)
SEMICONDUCTORMATERIAL
SALES
1997/1996Percent Change
(FCST)
8%
8%
–8%
14%
1996/1995Percent Change
6%
–8%
15%
12%
Figure 2-9. 1996 and 1997 Worldwide Electronics Marketplace
Semiconductor equipment sales carried significant momentum in 1996 to display a 15 percentincrease. ICE forecasts that capital spending for semiconductor production equipment willdecline eight percent in 1997 as DRAM manufacturers fully ÒadjustÓ to the overcapacity situation.
Semiconductor material suppliers usually follow the growth of IC unit volumes. However, the12 percent increase in the 1996 semiconductor materials market was much better than the two per-cent growth shown in the IC unit market. The conversion to 200mm wafers, more complexprocesses (e.g., increasing number of mask layers), the increased use of consumables (e.g., CMPand more etch steps), and higher pin count packages contributed to the difference.
Figure 2-10 shows the discrete, IC, and total semiconductor markets segmented by system-typeusage from 1991 to 2002. As shown in Figures 2-11 and 2-12, the IC market is driven primarily bythe computer industry whereas the discrete segmentÕs greatest demand still comes from consumerand industrial systems. 1993 was the first year that the computer segment represented more thanhalf of the IC market (up two points from 1992). In 1996 the computer segment represented about55 percent of the total IC market. The military market now represents about one percent of totalsemiconductor sales (down from 2.3 percent in 1991) and will most likely continue to shrink fromeven this low level moving into the next century.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-9
SemiconductorMarkets
1991($B)
Percentof Total
1994($B)
Percentof Total
1995($B)
1996($B)
Percentof Total
Actual
IC MARKETS
Computer
Consumer
Communications
Industrial
Automotive
Military
Total IC Market
Computer
Consumer
Communications
Industrial
Automotive
Military
Total Discrete Market
Computer
Consumer
Communications
Industrial
Automotive
Military
TOTAL SEMI MARKET
21.9
11.0
6.0
4.1
2.1
1.1
46.3
1.2
4.2
1.6
2.2
1.0
0.2
10.5
23.2
15.2
7.6
6.3
3.1
1.3
56.8
47.4%
23.8%
12.9%
8.9%
4.6%
2.4%
100.0%
11.5%
40.2%
15.7%
21.1%
9.4%
2.1%
100.0%
40.8%
26.8%
13.4%
11.2%
5.5%
2.3%
100.0%
54.1%
17.6%
14.2%
8.6%
4.1%
1.4%
100.0%
14.2%
31.5%
18.6%
24.6%
10.3%
0.8%
100.0%
48.6%
19.5%
14.8%
10.8%
4.9%
1.3%
100.0%
56.5%
15.6%
14.3%
8.1%
4.4%
1.1%
100.0%
14.4%
30.6%
17.7%
25.7%
10.9%
0.7%
100.0%
51.1%
17.5%
14.7%
10.4%
5.2%
1.0%
100.0%
49%
26%
44%
34%
53%
12%
43%
35%
29%
26%
39%
41%
10%
33%
48%
27%
41%
36%
49%
12%
41%
55.1%
15.5%
15.5%
8.1%
4.8%
1.0%
100.0%
16.5%
29.0%
18.1%
25.2%
10.5%
0.7%
100.0%
50.0%
17.3%
15.8%
10.3%
5.5%
1.0%
100.0%
55.3%
15.0%
16.3%
7.7%
4.9%
0.8%
100.0%
17.0%
28.0%
18.2%
25.7%
10.5%
0.6%
100.0%
50.3%
16.7%
16.5%
10.0%
5.6%
0.8%
100.0%
8%
4%
13%
3%
10%
–9%
8%
10%
3%
7%
9%
7%
–16%
7%
8%
4%
13%
5%
9%
–10%
8%
21%
13%
24%
16%
22%
–2%
20%
19%
8%
14%
15%
14%
–8%
13%
21%
12%
22%
16%
21%
–2%
19%
57.9%
11.0%
18.6%
6.8%
5.4%
0.3%
100.0%
21.5%
21.2%
18.9%
27.1%
11.1%
0.2%
100.0%
54.4%
12.0%
18.6%
8.8%
6.0%
0.3%
100.0%
–11%
–9%
–1%
–8%
—
–17%
–8%
7%
–12%
–5%
–9%
–10%
–1%
–7%
–10%
–10%
–1%
–8%
–3%
–15%
–8%
48.9
15.9
12.8
7.8
3.7
1.3
90.3
2.0
4.5
2.7
3.5
1.5
0.1
14.3
50.9
20.4
15.5
11.3
5.2
1.4
104.6
72.7
20.1
18.4
10.4
5.7
1.4
128.7
2.7
5.8
3.4
4.9
2.1
0.1
19.0
75.5
25.9
21.8
15.3
7.7
1.5
147.7
64.9
18.3
18.3
9.5
5.7
1.2
117.9
2.9
5.1
3.2
4.5
1.9
0.1
17.7
67.8
23.4
21.5
14.0
7.5
1.3
135.6
70.3
19.1
20.7
9.8
6.2
1.1
127.2
3.2
5.3
3.4
4.9
2.0
0.1
18.9
73.6
24.4
24.2
14.7
8.2
1.2
146.2
202.4
38.5
65.0
23.8
18.9
1.0
349.6
8.1
8.0
7.1
10.2
4.2
0.1
37.7
210.5
46.4
72.2
34.0
23.1
1.1
387.3
DISCRETE MARKETS
SEMICONDUCTOR MARKETS
1995/1994% Change
Percentof Total
1997($B)
Percentof Total
Percentof Total
1996/1995% Change
2002($B)
1997/1996% Change
1996/2002CAGR %
Forecast
Source: WSTS 21672A
Figure 2-10. 1991-2002 Worldwide IC, Discrete, and Total Merchant Semiconductor Usage
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-10
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
MilitaryAutoIndustrialComm.ConsumerComputer
System Type
Per
cen
t M
arke
tsh
are
= 1991= 1996= 2002
Source: WSTS 21671A
Figure 2-11. IC Dollar Volume End-Use Trends
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
MilitaryAutoComputerComm.IndustrialConsumer
System Type
Per
cen
t M
arke
tsh
are
= 1991= 1996= 2002
Source: WSTS 21670A
Figure 2-12. Discrete Dollar Volume End-Use Trends
One of the hottest areas of the semiconductor market since 1994 has been the communications seg-ment. In many countries the telecom business is booming even more than the PC industry. ICEestimates that the communications segment of the worldwide semiconductor market has gainedmore than two points since 1991.
Each of the major IC market regions (i.e., Japan, North America, Europe, and ROW) has a very dif-ferent makeup of end-use consumption (Figure 2-13). As shown, the North American market ishighly dependent upon the computer industry. In fact, the computer and communications indus-tries represented 81 percent of all IC usage in North America in 1996!
The Japanese IC market is more reliant on the consumer systems industry. With economic uncer-tainty running high among the Japanese population and no new blockbuster-hit consumer prod-ucts being introduced, Japanese IC consumption for consumer systems has been flat since 1992.Being shut out of many of the high-volume desktop PC markets thus far, many Japanese compa-nies have emphasized laptop PCs and other office-automation equipment (e.g., printers) and tele-com system sales.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-11
$28.7B
Consumer29%
Industrial10%
Communications14%
Computer42%
Auto 5%
$39.6B
Consumer 5%
Industrial 7%
Communications15%
Computer66%
Auto 5%
Military2%
$24.4B
Consumer11%
Industrial11%
Communications25%
Computer45%
Auto7%
Military 1%
North America Japan
Europe18453HSource: ICE
$25.2BConsumer
20%
Industrial4%
Communications10%
Computer64%
Auto 2%Military <1%
ROW
Figure 2-13. 1996 Merchant IC Usage by Region and End Use
One of the bright spots in the 1996 European market was the communications segment. With theÒopeningÓ of Eastern Europe, a tremendous pent-up demand for telecommunications systems stillexists. Establishing this infrastructure requires a tremendous amount of IC-based telecom equip-ment. As shown, communications ICs represent one-fourth of EuropeÕs total IC market.
The ROW sector has benefited from its participation in the high-growth PC industry. As shown,almost two-thirds of ROW IC consumption was in the computer segment in 1996. The ROW ICmarket segment was just slightly ahead of Europe as the third largest consuming region for ICsin 1996.
WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION UPDATE AND FORECAST
Figure 2-14 shows the semiconductor industryÕs annual growth rates for 1974 through 2002. The1989-1992 period was the longest period ever in the semiconductor industry where growth was 10percent or less in each year. Even the 1992 ÒboomÓ year turned out to be a record fourth year ina row where growth did not top 10 percent. As shown, 1993-1995 turned out to be the ÒboomÓyears even in the face of the oftentimes slumping Japanese and European economies.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-12
–20
–15
–10
–5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989198819871986198519841983198219811980197919781977197619751974Year
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
14%
–17%
–12%
36%
28% 28% 28%
25%
5%
2%
21%20%
34%
10%
4%
7%9%
26%
30%
37%
–8%
8%
18%19%
21%23%
25%
47%
19%
*Including captive (FCST)
10386ABSource: ICE
Figure 2-14. Worldwide Semiconductor Production* Growth Rates ($)
It is now conclusive that the four-year semiconductor industry ÒboomÓ cycle coinciding with U.S.presidential election years (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996, etc.) is no longer intact. This cyclewould have had 1992 and 1996 being boom years while 1993-1995 would have been ÒslowerÓyears. Of course it is currently obvious that just the opposite occurred.
Although foreign currencies helped inflate the early 1990Õs semiconductor market figures asexpressed in dollars, there was very strong ÒrealÓ growth from 1993 through 1995. Using constant2Q97 exchange rates, ICE forecasts that the CAGR for the 1996-2002 worldwide semiconductorindustry will be a healthy 19 percent. A long-term positive outlook for the PC market coupledwith an absence of extended significant overcapacity for leading-edge IC production are the mainreasons for ICEÕs bullish forecast for the 1996-2002 semiconductor marketplace.
ICEÕs long-term worldwide merchant semiconductor sales forecast is given in Figure 2-15. 1994was the first year the merchant semiconductor industry passed the $100 billion level and 1995 wasthe first year the merchant IC-only market passed the $100 billion mark. ICE forecasts that themerchant semiconductor market will reach $387 billion in 2002.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-13
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997*
1998*
1999*
2000*
2001*
2002*
51,840
68,180
90,270
128,645
117,940
127,225
152,408
182,427
223,260
277,665
349,546
12
32
32
43
–8
8
20
20
22
24
26
10,410
11,830
14,320
19,040
17,700
18,940
21,210
23,970
27,565
31,975
37,730
–1
14
21
33
–7
7
12
13
15
16
18
62,250
80,010
104,590
147,685
135,640
146,165
173,618
206,397
250,825
309,640
387,276
10
29
31
41
–8
8
19
19
22
23
25
YEARIC
MERCHANT
PERCENT GROWTHOVER
PREVIOUS YEAR
DISCRETEMERCHANT
PERCENT GROWTHOVER
PREVIOUS YEAR
TOTALMERCHANT
SEMICONDUCTOR
PERCENT GROWTHOVER
PREVIOUS YEAR
11077AE
*Using 2Q97 exchange rates
Source: ICE
Figure 2-15. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Production Forecast ($M)
1996Õs negative worldwide semiconductor market was due to two major factors. The first was theplunging price of DRAMs. The second was the currency conversion situation, especially the yen.It should be noted that when using local currencies instead of U.S. dollars, and not includingDRAMs in the 1996 market figures, the worldwide semiconductor market would have shown a 10percent increase!
Is a $387 billion merchant semiconductor market a ÒreasonableÓ expectation for 2002? Figure 2-16 attempts to show why ICE believes that it is reasonable.
The figure shows the history of the worldwide merchant semiconductor market from 1975 to1996 in five-year and six-year increments with a six year range extended to the year 2002. Therange of five-year and six-year CAGRÕs from 1975 to 1996 went from a low of 12 percent to a highof 25 percent.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-14
10
1
100
1,000
15% '90-'96 CAGR
4.4
13.6
23.7
57.5
135.6
387 19% '96-'02 CAGR268 12% '96-'02 CAGR
517 25% '96-'02 CAGR
19% '85-'90 CAGR
12% '80-'85 CAGR
25% '75-'80 CAGR
1975 1980 1985Year
1990 1996 2002
20436CSource: ICE
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Figure 2-16. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Market History and Forecast
From 1985 through 1996 the merchant semiconductor market grew at an annual rate of 17 per-cent. Given the positive long-term outlook for a continuation of strong semiconductor end-usemarkets (e.g., wireless telecommunications, PCs, etc.), ICE believes that a 1996-2002 CAGR of 19percent is a reasonable expectation. It is interesting to note that when using a 19 percent CAGR,the merchant semiconductor market would pass the $1.0 trillion level in 2008!
Figure 2-17 examines ICEÕs ASIC 1998 assumptions. As shown, the key trends that are expectedto cause a lower growth rate over the next five years compared to 1993-1995 are increased capac-ity and a lower growth rate for PC systems. Despite the ÒcorrectionÓ in 1996, ICE is still forecast-ing a very positive long-term worldwide semiconductor market outlook as is evidenced by the 19percent 1996-2002 CAGR.
THE WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET
Figure 2-18 shows the quarterly IC market trends for 1991 through 1996. IC average selling price(ASP) continued to rise until 1Q96 when the DRAM ASP plummeted. Although the worldwidemerchant IC market increased 43 percent in 1995, IC unit volume was up only about 18 percent.Thus, the majority of IC market growth in 1995 came from ASP increases, not unit volumeincreases.
As shown in Figure 2-18, ICE believes that 2Q97 was the low point for IC ASPs through 1997.Moreover, ICE expects that 1Q97 was the beginning of a gradual recovery in the IC market thatwill carry throughout 1997 and into 1998.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-15
Figure 2-17. ASIC 1998 Assumptions for 1997-2002
• Capacity– Fab equipment suppliers catch up with orders.– Synchronous 16M DRAMs ship in high volume, DRAM producers ramp up 64M DRAMs.– Excess capacity for DRAMs exists throughout 1997.– Total IC supply and demand in relative balance in 1998.– Leading-edge capacity (≤0.35µm) still tight at foundries.
• PC market growth rates slow from 1994-1995's 20%+ to 15-18% in 1996-1998.
• The worldwide PC unit market (not including NC computers) will display a 15% CAGR from 1996-2002.
– PC unit shipments will grow from 71M in 1996 to 160M in 2002.
20327DSource: ICE
Figure 2-19 shows semiconductor ASPs and unit volume shipments for 1991-1997. The cause offluctuations in the market as measured in dollars is usually more easily understood by examiningASP and unit volume changes. As was shown earlier, the total IC market in 1996 was more influ-enced by ASP than by unit volume changes.
It is interesting to compare semiconductor ASPs and shipments from the late 1980Õs with the earlyto mid-1990Õs. As shown, IC ASPs in the first seven years of the 1990Õs displayed higher annualincreases compared with the late 1980Õs while unit volume average increases declined. For dis-cretes, annual average unit volume increases of 11 percent are close to the norm (about the sameincrease as total system sales dollars) with ASPs staying flat in the 1990Õs instead of decreasing.
Figure 2-20 shows the discrete and IC unit volume shipments from 1982-1997. After a flat semi-conductor unit shipment year in 1992, healthy growth for IC and discrete unit volume was regis-tered in 1993, 1994, and 1995. A surge in automotive and telecommunications use of discretesemiconductors, as well as some inventory building, were the main reasons for the strong gain indiscrete unit shipments in 1994 and 1995.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-16
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
4Q3Q2Q1Q 4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.903.00
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Dollars
ASP
Units
Bill
ing
s in
Mill
ion
s
AS
P (
$)
19204GSource: WSTS
(FCST)
Figure 2-18. Total Merchant IC Market (Dollars and Units in Millions)
Both IC and discrete unit volume shipments in 1996 were about flat when compared with 1995.One reason for IC unit shipment rate of growth declines is the continuation of the trend of high-density devices replacing numerous low-density units.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-17
YEAR
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997 (FCST)
1991-1997CAGR
1986-1990CAGR
46.4
51.8
68.2
90.3
128.7
117.9
127.2
$1.35
$1.51
$1.75
$2.17
$2.68
$2.40
$2.22
34.4
34.3
39.0
41.6
48.0
49.1
57.3
10.5
10.4
11.8
14.3
19.0
17.7
18.9
$0.093
$0.093
$0.098
$0.102
$0.106
$0.102
$0.092
112.9
111.8
120.4
140.2
179.6
173.5
205.9
56.9
62.2
79.8
104.6
147.7
135.6
146.2
$0.386
$0.426
$0.502
$0.575
$0.649
$0.609
$0.555
147.3
146.1
159.4
181.8
227.6
222.6
263.2
MERCHANTMARKET ($B) ASP UNIT
VOLUME (B)MERCHANT
MARKET ($B) ASP UNITVOLUME (B)
MERCHANTMARKET ($B) ASP UNIT
VOLUME (B)
ICs DISCRETES TOTAL SEMICONDUCTOR
13745WSource: ICE
18%
20%
9%
7%
9%
13%
10%
9%
—
–2%
11%
11%
17%
18%
6%
6%
10%
11%
Figure 2-19. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Market, ASP, and Unit Volume Shipments
+7%+15%+2% +17%
+14%0%+4%+13%+6%+17%+17%+21%–13%
+54%+31%
+17%
+28%
–3%+19%
+8%–1%+6%
+9%+7%
+11%+16%
+10%0%+28%
+25%
Discretes
ICs
Un
its
(Bill
ion
s)
11083ADSource: WSTS
Year
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1997199619951994199319921991199019891988198719861985198419831982(FCST)
Figure 2-20. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Unit Shipments
Another reason for flat 1996 unit sales is the paring down of inventory by the electronic systemhouses. Although a significant amount of excess IC inventory was not built-up in 1995, systemsuppliers began lowering the ÒtypicalÓ level of parts supply they keep in inventory. For example,while many PC suppliers were keeping three to four weeks worth of IC inventory in 1995, in 1996,IC inventory levels were down to only two days at some companies!
As is almost always the case, an overcapacity situation leads to steady or declining pricing.Conversely, a shortage of capacity will usually lead to dramatically increasing prices. To helpgauge the capacity situation in the semiconductor market, ICE has tracked worldwide capitalspending as a percent of worldwide semiconductor sales from 1979-1996.
As one would imagine, the 26-27 percent spending of 1984-1985 led to significant overcapacitywhile the 16 percent spending rate in 1986-1987 ultimately led to a capacity shortage during the1988 expansion. ICE estimates that it currently takes about a 21 percent spending rate to meet therelentless capacity needs of the semiconductor industry.
Figure 2-21 shows the IC ASP trends from 1982-1997. Also shown on the chart is the average cap-ital spending as a percent of semiconductor sales for each three- or four-year period.
As shown, each period where capital spending averaged over 21 percent or more, IC ASP stayedflat or declined. Even during the boom year of 1984, IC ASP increased only five percent.However, when the spending rate averaged less than 21 percent, IC ASP displayed significantincreases (from 1986 to 1988 and from 1992 to 1994). The 1996 ASP decline was a direct result ofthe ÒexcessÓ spending (particularly for DRAMs) by the IC industry in 1995. ICE forecasts that1997 will display an ASP decline as well.
Figure 2-22 shows the percentage of the market represented by each geographical region for 1982,1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 2002. Drawing upon the same assumptions used for ICEÕs electronicsystem production forecasts (shown earlier), the Japanese market is expected to significantlydecline in share while the North American and European segments are forecast to stay relativelyflat. The ROW region will continue its role as the fastest growing region by gaining three pointsof marketshare by 2002. Figure 2-23 shows the 1996 to 2002 CAGR forecast for the four majorsemiconductor market regions.
Figure 2-24 shows 1992-1996 actuals and ICEÕs 1997 and 2002 forecasts for the merchant semicon-ductor market by region. The Japanese market would have displayed only a 12 percent 1993-1996CAGR if expressed in yen! Figure 2-25 shows some key points drawn from the data shown inFigure 2-24.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-18
Ultimately, the evolution of the semiconductor market (i.e., consumption) will follow the elec-tronic system industries. ICE expects the electronic system production base to continue to slowlymigrate to Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, etc., and along with it, an increasing percentage of the semi-conductor market. As has been discussed, the opposite is forecast to happen in Japan.
It is generally agreed that the ROW semiconductor market with the greatest potential in the late1990Õs and early 2000Õs is China. China is the worldÕs largest consumer market, with 1.2 billioncitizens whose incomes are rising rapidly. Currently, though, only a small fraction of Chinesemake enough money to be significant consumers for electronic systems. That means that there istremendous potential demand for all sorts of products, including consumer electronics, comput-ers, communications, and other electronic equipment as the Chinese standard of living increases.
Computers and communications are of particular importance to the Chinese government. ThecountryÕs market for personal computers was 350,000 units in 1993, and is forecast to reach 2.5 mil-lion units by the year 2001. In the area of communications, telephone subscriptions totaled 26 mil-lion units in 1993, and are forecast to jump to 73 million by the year 2001.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-19
$0.95 $0.96$1.01
$0.96$1.00
$1.09
$1.32$1.39
$1.28$1.35
$1.51
$1.75
$2.17
$2.68
$2.40
$2.22
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
$1.90
$2.00
$2.10
$2.20
$2.30
$2.40
$2.50
$2.60
$2.70
$2.80
$2.90
1997199619951994199319921991199019891988198719861985198419831982
+1%+5% –5%+4% +9%
+21%
+5% –8%+6%+12%
+16%
+24%
+24%
–10%
–8%
Year
13748ZSource: ICE
AS
P (
$)
1992 - 199419%*
1995 - 199729%*
1982 - 198524%*
1986 - 198817%*
1989 - 199121%*
*Capital spending as a percent of semiconductor sales.
(FCST)
Figure 2-21. Merchant IC ASPs (1982-1997)
Of course, strong demand for electronic products means strong demand for semiconductors. Asshown in Figure 2-26, ChinaÕs dollar value consumption of ICs is forecast to increase on the aver-age of about 32 percent per year from 1993 to 1997. In 1996, the majority of those ICs were builtinto consumer products such as TVs, audio equipment, and game machines. However, demandfor ICs for communications equipment, personal computers, and VCRs will experience thestrongest growth in the coming years.
To support demand for ICs, the country has had to depend on imports, where over two-thirds ofChinaÕs IC units are imported. This is a situation the Chinese government is eager to continue tochange. In fact, the country would like to build enough ICs to support its own needs, and alsoexport a significant amount of devices to the Asia-Pacific market.
As was shown earlier, the 1993-1997 Chinese IC market is forecast to grow a strong 32 percent.Using a conservative 30 percent average annual growth rate, the Chinese IC market in 2002 wouldbe a significant $13.9 billion.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1982$14.4B
2002$387.2B
6%
21%
28%
45%
26%
22%
18%
34%
Year
Per
cen
t
12132AB
North America
Japan
Europe
ROW
Source: ICE
1992$62.3B
18%
19%
32%
31%
1995$147.7B
1997$146.1B(FCST)
21%
20%
27%
32%
22% 23%
21% 21%
25% 23%
32% 33%
1996$135.6B
(FCST)
Figure 2-22. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Markets
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-21
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Region
CA
GR
%
23%
21%20%
12%
19%
20207DSource: ICE
ROW NorthAmerica
Europe Japan TotalMarket
Figure 2-23. 1996-2002 Semiconductor Market CAGR by Region
1993($B)
1994/1993PercentChange
1994($B)
1995/1994PercentChange
1995($B)
2.5
4.7
2.1
2.5
11.8
23.0
19.6
12.8
12.8
68.2
25.5
24.3
14.9
15.3
80.0
25
14
24
33
21
37
26
37
36
32
36
23
35
35
31
3.1
5.4
2.6
3.2
14.3
31.2
24.5
17.5
17.1
90.3
34.3
29.9
20.1
20.3
104.6
26%
31%
45%
47%
35%
39%
36%
42%
58%
43%
38%
34%
43%
56%
41%
3.9
6.7
3.8
4.6
19.0
43.5
33.4
24.8
27.0
128.7
47.4
40.1
28.6
31.6
147.7
2002(FCST, $B)
8%
2%
11%
9%
7%
13%
–2%
7%
13%
8%
13%
–2%
7%
12%
8%
1996-2002CAGR (%)
13%
7%
16%
17%
13%
21%
13%
21%
24%
20%
20%
12%
21%
23%
19%
18946HSource: ICE
1997(FCST, $B)
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
18.9
44.7
28.0
26.0
28.5
127.2
48.6
34.0
30.0
33.5
146.1
7.5
9.1
9.0
12.1
37.7
122.0
60.0
77.5
90.0
349.5
129.5
69.1
86.5
102.1
387.2
1996/1995PercentChange
1997/1996PercentChange
1996($B)
–8%
–12%
–5%
—
–7%
–9%
–14%
–2%
–7%
–8%
–9%
–14%
–2%
–6%
–8%
3.6
5.9
3.6
4.6
17.7
39.6
28.7
24.4
25.2
117.9
43.2
34.6
28.0
29.8
135.6
Discrete Markets
North America
Japan
Europe
ROW
Total Discrete
IC Markets
North America
Japan
Europe
ROW
Total IC
Semiconductor Market
North America
Japan
Europe
ROW
Total Semiconductor
Semiconductor Markets
Figure 2-24. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Market Forecast
LEADING SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLIERS
Figure 2-27 provides a breakdown of worldwide IC sales by North American, Japanese, European,and Rest-of-World (ROW) companies for 1975-1996. As can be seen, sales by North Americancompanies were overwhelmingly dominant in the mid-1970Õs. However, by the mid-1980Õs themajority of the worldÕs IC sales were about evenly split between North American and Japanesecompanies. By 1990, the Japanese had increased their share of worldwide IC sales to 48 percent,but in 1992 JapanÕs economy weakened causing their share to begin falling. A persistent economicslump in the following years coupled with the KoreansÕ success in the MOS memory marketcaused the Japanese share to continue falling. The Japanese share fell further in 1996 primarilybecause of the yen to dollar exchange rate and the decline in the DRAM market.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-22
Figure 2-25. Worldwide Merchant Semiconductor Market Forecast Highlights
YearIC Market
($B)IC Market(Unit B)
Domestic ChinaIC Production
(Units B)
PercentDomestic
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997 (FCST)
1.25
1.74
2.38
3.00
3.75
0.85
1.00
1.50
1.90
2.35
0.20
0.25
0.45
0.60
0.80
24
25
30
32
34
Source: China Ministry of Electronics, Industrial Technology Research Institute, SEMI
22761
Figure 2-26. IC Market In China
– In yen, the Japanese semiconductor market from 1993-1997 is forecast to increase at only a 10% CAGR. The total semiconductor market showed a 16% CAGR during this same timeframe.
– Exchange rate fluctuations were the main cause behind the –14% drop in the 1996 Japanese market. The weak Yen will
will again be the primary cause of the negative 1997 Japanese market.
– ROW IC market became larger than that of Europe in 1995.
– ROW and European semiconductor regions are forecast to be larger than Japan by 2002.
– The North American IC market is forecast to beover $120 billion in 2002, more than twice the size of the
Japanese IC market.
Source: ICE 21050B
For the past 21 years European companies have continued to represent between seven and tenpercent of worldwide IC sales. Meanwhile, the share of the ROW companies (primarily Koreanand Taiwanese) surpassed that of the European companies in 1992, reaching 15 percent in 1995and 14 percent in 1996.
A ranking for the worldÕs top ten merchant semiconductor sales leaders in 1996 is given in Figure2-28. The sales for these companies as a group decreased six percent during the year. Together,they held roughly 60 percent of the overall semiconductor market. The most notable thing aboutthis chart is that most of the companies that showed a decrease in semiconductor sales for 1996are heavily involved in DRAMs. Another interesting note is that SGS-Thomson entered the topten semiconductor rankings for the first time. The 1996 top fifteen worldwide integrated circuitsales leaders are listed in Figure 2-29.
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 2-23
Year
70%
18%
10%
2%
63%
27%
8%
2%
43%46%
9%
2%2%
36%
48%
10%6%
36%
42%
32%
14%*
Per
cen
t
= North American Companies
= Japanese Companies
* Korean companies' share was 11 percent in 1995 and 9 percent in 1996.
= European Companies
= ROW Companies������
13743USource: ICE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
������������
������
������������
��������
���������
���������
199619951990198519801975
46%
8%7%
15%*
Figure 2-27. Marketshare of Worldwide IC Sales ($)
Worldwide IC Industry Economic Update and Forecast
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION2-24
Rank
1995 1992
Company1996 ICSales($M)
1996Discrete
Sales($M)
1996/1995PercentChange
1
2
3
4
5
7
6
8
9
14
—
3
1
2
5
4
6
11
N/A
8
14
—
Intel
NEC
Toshiba
Hitachi
Motorola
TI
Samsung
IBM Microelectronics
Mitsubishi
SGS-Thomson
Total
17,870
9,950
6,970
7,254
6,745
6,700
6,385
5,100
3,545
3,522
74,041
—
1,050
1,755
1,040
1,479
50
315
—
605
600
6,894
17,870
11,000
8,725
8,294
8,224
6,750
6,700
5,100
4,150
4,122
80,935
31
–10
–18
–16
–8
–14
–20
–11
–18
16
–6
18072NSource: ICE
1996
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
—
1996 TotalSemi Sales
($M)
Figure 2-28. Worldwide Top Ten Merchant Semiconductor Sales Leaders
Rank
1995 1992Company
1996/1995PercentChange
1
2
3
4
7
6
5
8
9
13
14
10
11
12
16
—
2
1
5
3
4
6
9
N/A
8
15
13
27
7
21
13
—
Intel
NEC
Hitachi
Toshiba
Motorola
TI
Samsung
IBM
Mitsubishi
SGS-Thomson
Philips
Hyundai
Fujitsu
LG Semicon
Matsushita
Total
1996 TotalIC Sales
($M)
17,870
9,950
7,254
6,970
6,745
6,700
6,385
5,100
3,545
3,522
3,253
3,150
2,880
2,500
2,325
88,149
31
–10
–16
–19
–7
–14
–22
–11
–20
19
11
–28
–28
–31
–11
–8
20458CSource: ICE
1996
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
—
Figure 2-29. Worldwide Top Fifteen Merchant IC Sales Leaders