World Vegetable Oil Outlook

8/16/2019 World Vegetable Oil Outlook

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1

The Global Market for Oilseeds andVe etable Oils

there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport

Presentation on 28 Nov at Oils & Fats Seminar of Olenex in Hamburg

Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke, Oil World,

27 Nov 2013

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27 Nov 2013


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2

20

22Palm Oil Sun Oil

Soya Oil 17 Oils/Fats

Annual Stocks / Usage Ratios (%)

17 OILS & FATSThe huge palm oil supplies of lastyear have been disposed o f.

World stocks of palm oil reacheda record 11.6 Mn T as o f end-Dec2012, thereof:

12

14

16

18a ays a . n ones a . n

With consumption picking upsharply, stocks early-Sept haddeclined by 1.8 Mn T in Malaysia& Indonesia combined

Palm oil output smaller than

27 Nov 2013


99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14

8

10expected recently.Only moderate rise in worldstocks in Oct/Dec

5

6Supply Change Usage Change

Annual Growth in Mn T

PALM OIL: World Supplies & Usage

Mn T

The annual growth inworld palm oil suppliesand usage were at or nearrecord highs in 2012/13


2

3

4But the growth will beslowing down in 2013/14

27 Nov 2013


05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14

0

1


3/29

3

Energy Market Impacts:

Palm oi l pr ices (red line)traded largely sideways inMarch/Aug 2013

950

1000

1050Crude palm oil, cif Rott.

Brent crude oil, Brent/ICE

Daily Prices of Crude Palm Oil & Brent Oil (US-$/T)


But palm oi l appreciatedby $ 90-120 in the 5 weeksto Nov 1 on smaller thanexpected production andstocks and big demand 800

850

900

27 Nov 2013


In Europe palm oil usagefor energy increased by0.9 Mn T in 2012/13

Prices f rom 3 Sept 2012 unti l 26 Nov 2013SepOct NovDecJa13FebMarAprMayJun Jly AugSepOct Nov

700

Arg. soya oi l pr ices fell to thelowest level in 32 months in

August 2013reducing the premium over palmoil to US $ 100 1200

1400

1600

750

900

1050

Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)

Soya oil, Arg.fob

For vegetable oils most thebearishness already discounted

But much greater downwardpotential for oilmeal prices 400

600

800

1000

150

300

450

600RBD palm olein, Mal.fob

Soya oil Pre miums/discounts

27 Nov 2013


Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 26 Nov 2013

Ja10 Jun SepJa11 JunSepJa12 JunSep Ja13 Jun Nov

0 -150


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4

Soybean and Meal Prices Overvalued in Chicago

1350

1400

CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)

440

460

CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures (US$/ST)

1200

1250

1300

Jan 2014

May 2014340

360

380

400

420

Dec 2013

27 Nov 2013


Daily futures from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013 Aug'13 Sep Oct Nov

1150

Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013NovDecJan13 FebMarApr May JunJly Aug Sep Oct Nov

300320

50-day moving average

850

900

950CBOT: Daily Wheat Futures (c/bu)

600

650December 2013 position

CBOT: Daily Corn Futures (c/bu)

650

700

750

800

Dec 2013 position


450

500

550

Daily futures


27 Nov 2013


Daily futures 19 Oct 2012 until 26 Nov 2013OctNov DecJa13Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSepOct Nov

600

Daily futures 1 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013Nov'12Ja'13 Feb Mar AprMay JunJly AugSep Oct Nov


5/29

5

400

450

30

35Tota l and An nu al Change (Mn T)

10 Oi lseeds : World Crus hin gs

W orld Crushings

150

200

250

300

5

10

15

20

27 Nov 2013


92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14

0

50

100

-10

-5

0 Annu al ch ange

80

90

100

Crush ings of 10 Oilseeds (Mn T)

China

China the world largestcrusher - Large and newcapacities (competitive)

30

4050

60

70

U.S.A.

EU-27

Brazil

- China has become anet exporter of soy meal

In Brazil the domesticcrushers lost marketshares to soybean

27 Nov 2013


October / September

95/96 97/98 99/10 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14

10

20n a

Arg ent ina

exporters


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6

10

12

14Change from Previous Season (in Mn T)

12 OILMEALS : World Disappearance

-2

0

2

4

6

8

So ameal

27 Nov 2013


05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14

-8

-6-12 Meals

600

7002011

2012

2013

Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)

300

400

500

27 Nov 2013


Prices for 2013 until Nov 26Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jl y Aug Sep Oct No v Dec

200


7/29

7

550600650700

with 10-year average Jan 1998 - Dec 2007 (in US -$/T)

Mont hly Pri ces of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil

Soya pell ets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.

250300350400450500

27 Nov 2013


From Oc t 1997 unti l 26 Nov 2013

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 ' 10 '11 1 2 '13

100150 Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220

500

600

700

2 OILMEALS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)

200

300

400

So a ell, 48%,Brazil ,cif Rott

27 Nov 2013


J/M11 A/J11

J/S11O/D11

J/M12 A/J12

J/S12O/D12

J/M13 A/J13

J/S13O/D13

J/M14 A/J14

0

100Rape meal,34%,fob ex-mill Hmb


8/29

8

650

700

750

3 OILSEEDS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)

500

550

600

Soybeans, U.S., cif Rotterdam

27 Nov 2013


J/M11 A/J11

J/S11O/D11

J/M12 A/J12

J/S12O/D12

J/M13 A/J13

J/S13O/D13

J/M14 A/J14

400

Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam

Rapeseed,Europe,00,cif Hamburg

Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market

e u ooof Soybeans &other Oilseeds

27 Nov 2013



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9

2013/14 = 494.4 Mn T

India 8%

10 Oilseeds - - 494.4 Mn T

Global Production of 10 Oilseeds

Soybeans 58%

Groundnuts 6%

Copra & Palmkernels 4%

Other 3 Oilseeds 2%

C.I.S. 7%

Canada & U.S.A. 24%

Brazil 18%

Argenti na 12%

China 10%

27 Nov 2013


Rapeseed 14%

Sunflowerseed 8%

Cottonseed 9%Other ctri es 15%

EU-27 6%

42 0

46 0

50 0Product ion (Mn T)

Area (Mn ha )

10 Oilseeds: Worl d Area and Produc tio nIn past 25 years worldoilseed production more thandoubled (strong demand)

Rising acreage and yields

22 0

26 0

30 0

34 0

38 0 About half of the acreageincreased came from grains.

But this shift will slow down.

Agricu ltural land has becomea limiting factor worldwide,

27 Nov 2013


88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 0 4/0 5 0 7/0 8 10 /1 1 13/14

14 0

18 0

Land values more thandoubled in past 6 years


10/29

10

35

4045

10 OILSEEDS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)

U.S.A.

In 13/14 USA and South

America account for:

- 80% of world exports of 10 oilseeds (131 Mn T)


15

20

25

30

Oth. America

Brazil-95% of world soybeanexports (total 109 Mn T)

In 2020:Brazil + Arg will have toproduce at least 162-167

27 Nov 2013


89/90 92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14

0

5Canada

Australia

Ukraine 130 in 2013).Huge logistical needs !

20

25

17 Oils & Fats: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)

Indonesia

Indonesia & Malaysia

have expor ted 43.5

Mn T of oils & fats in

2012/13,

there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport10

15

Argentina

Malaysia. . thus account ing for

58% of total wor ldexports all oils &

fats (76 Mn) in 12/13

27 Nov 2013


90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/130

5U.S.A.

CanadaUkraine


11/29

11

4

4,5Growing Domestic Supply Deficits Boost US Import Needs

U.S.A.: Exports & Imports of 17 Oils & Fats ( Mn T )

Exports

The US likely to further

boost net imports ofoils/ fats to a record

2.0 Mn T in 2013/14


2

2,5

3

,

Imports

. . Part of the story is

that the domestic

crush industry

cannot compete

. . Thus 44% of the US

27 Nov 2013


O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 91/92

93/94 95/96

97/9899/00

01/02 03/04

05/06 07/08

09/10 11/12

13/14

1

,

soybean crop wasrecently exported

6

Annual Change from 2012/13 ( in Mn T)

10 Oilseeds: Estimated Production Change in 2013/14Significant improvement inproduction in mostcountries in 2013/14

Big increases in Argentina,

0

2

4Brazil and the C.I.S.

India: Higher oilseed output

in 2013/14; slowdown ofveg. oil impor t needs; butsome crop damage

27 Nov 2013


EUC.I.S.

CanUSA

ArgBra

Austral iaIndia

China

-2

Major exception is China.Much higher import needs.


12/29

12

808896 Crushings (Mn T)

Production (Mn T)

CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings

• Rising Chinese

import dependenceon declining dom-estic oilseed crops

243240485664

• Competition ofother crops

• Total agriculturalland shrinkin

27 Nov 2013


91/9292/93

93/94 94/95

95/96 96/97

97/98 98/99

99/00 00/01

01/02 02/03

03/04 04/05

05/06 06/07

07/08 08/09

09/10 10/11

11/1212/13

13/14

08

60

70

CHINA: Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats

Mn T

Oilseeds

CHINA: Rapidly risingimport requirements

Mainly of soybeans, butalso of rapeseed and

20

30

40

Oils & Fats

other agri commodities

Big jump in oilseed

impor ts by 9-10 Mn T islikely in 2013/14

China buildin stocks of

27 Nov 2013


92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14

0

10oilseeds, oils & grains


13/29

13

50

60

70

China

Re st of world

Imports o f Soybeans (Mn T)

20

30

40

27 Nov 2013


O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 90/91

91/9292/93

93/9494/95

95/9696/97

97/9898/99

99/00 00/01

01/02 02/03

03/04 04/05

05/06 06/07

07/08 08/09

09/1010/11

11/1212/13

13/14F0

120

140

Soybean Crop Trend

Mn T

The U.S.A.:This summer, droughtdamaged the US soya crop;but less than expected

40

60

80

100

U.S.A.

expected yields in US soya,confi rmed by USDA‘s Nov 7

upward revision by 3.0 Mn T

27 Nov 2013


77/7880/81

83/8486/87

89/9092/93

95/9698/99

01/02 04/05

07/0810/11

13/14

0


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14

270

300 70and US Market Share (in %)

World Soybean Production (Mn T)

%Mn T

World Production

90

120

150

180

210

40

50

27 Nov 2013


81/82 87/88 94/95 99/00 05/06 13/14

0

3060

20

30U.S.A. Share in %

120

140

160

Soybean Crop TrendMn T

Growing dependence on South America - - but supply risksowing to weather, strikes,infrastructure shortages +political issues (Argentina !)

40

60

80

100

U.S.A.

With good weather from now,higher plantings should boost S.

Amer. soybean output to a new

high in early 2014 by 13–15 Mn T

In 2013/14 S. American soya crop70 Mn T above the US crop !

27 Nov 2013


77/7880/81

83/8486/87

89/9092/93

95/9698/99

01/02 04/05

07/0810/11

13/1

0

Argentina, Brazil & ParaguayFavorable weather + crop outlookin Brazil, Paraguay & Uruguay.In Argentina very good rains inNov, following drought in Aug/Oct


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15

SOYBEANS : Outpu t in 5 Sou th American Countries(Mn T)

13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11 08/09Brazil . . . . 88.20* 81.60 67.92 75.32 57.17

Argentina 55.00* 48.50* 39.70* 49.20* 31.50*Paraguay . 9.30* 9.00* 4.04* 7.38* 4.15Bolivia . . . 2.70* 2.60 2.37 1.78* 1.62Uruguay. . 3.30* 3.20* 2.45* 1.80* 1.09*Total . . . . 158.50* 144.90 116.48 135.48 95.52

27 Nov 2013


In Brazil concern about crop losses from caterpillar infestation. The Bra

Government declared the state of emergency for Mato Grosso to

better control the disease (imports of non-author ized pesticides).

The Argentine weather uncertaintys one o e gges po en a

bullish factors on the supply side

27 Nov 2013



16/29

16

ARGENTINA : Soybe an Bal ance ( Mn T )March / Feb Mar / Nov

13/14F 12/13 11/12 2013F 2012 2011pen.s oc s . . . . . .

Crop . . . . . . 48.50* 39.70* 49.20* 48.50* 39.70* 49.20*Imports . . . . - * - .01 - * - .01

Exports . . . . 7.90* 6.34 10.40 7.73* 6.30 10.31Crushings . . 36.50* 31.40 37.83 29.93* 26.52 30.13

Other use . . 2.12* 2.04* 1.98* 1.47* 1.41* 1.41*

27 Nov 2013


End. stocks 5.20* 3.22* 3.30* 12.60* 8.76* 11.66*

9

10

11

Official exchange rate

Inofficial exchange rate

Daily Selling Price of Argentine Peso per US-$ Argentina:Reserved soybeanselling by farmers

Keeping soybeans

6

7

8

as a hedge againstinflation andcurrencydevaluation

27 Nov 2013


Daily prices from Nov 2011 until 27 Nov 2013

Nov11Ja12 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja13 Mar May Jly Sep Nov

4

5


17/29

17

Assuming normal weather

in South America: Ample oilseed suppl iesahead in 2013/14.

10 OILSEEDS: World Producti on (Mn T)

13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11

Avg.Change

15 Years

to 12/13Soybeans . . . . 286.51* 267.16* 240.69 264.93 +3.5%

* * + soybeans, sunflowerseed,rapeseed and palmkernels

In 2013/14 worldproduction seen surgingby 28 Mn T and opening

. . . . . . . .Grdnuts,shelled 29.14* 28.01* 27.25 27.75 +2.1%Sunflowerseed 40.15* 35.58* 39.51 33.60 +2.8%Rapeseed . . . . 67.72* 63.92* 61.43 61.82 +4.5%

Sesameseed . . 3.93* 3.74* 3.83 3.83 +2.3%Palmkernels . . 14.63* 13.94* 13.29 12.54 +7.4%Copra . . . . . . . 5.33* 5.38* 5.26 4.80 +0.4%Linseed . . . . . . 2.27* 2.01* 2.13 1.82 -1.0%

27 Nov 2013


stocks up 8 Mn T,

boosting world suppliesby 36 Mn T - - > BEARISH !

Castorseed . . . 1.42* 1.33* 2.00 1.56 +0.7%Total. . . . . . . . 494.42* 466.05* 442.56 456.20 +3.3%

USA: Soybeanexports againfront-loaded inSept/Febr 2013/14

U.S.A. : Soybean Sup ply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t

13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09Op. stocks . 3.83 4.61 5.85 4.11 3.76 5.58


Sharply higherexports in 2013/14

Frontloaded exp

US exp. 18.3 Mn T

rop . . . . . . . . . . . .Imports . . . . .60* 1.01 .46 .42 .43 .38

Exports . . . . 40.00* 35.95 37.12 40.87 40.83 34.84

Crushings . . 45.45* 46.11* 46.35* 44.85* 47.67 45.23Other use . . 2.74* 2.29* 2.42* 3.56* 3.00 2.88

End. stocks . 4.90* 3.83 4.61 5.85 4.11 3.76

27 Nov 2013


n ep ov vs .

85% exp. till Febr !

Stocks/usage 5.6% 4.5% 5.4% 6.6% 4.5% 4.5%


18/29

18

CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T ) A u g u s t / J u l y

13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11

*

World production ofrapeseed & canolaset to increase by3.8 Mn T to a record

. . . . .Output . . . . . 16.50* 14.02* 14.61 13.10*Imports . . . . .12* .13 .10 .21

Exports . . . . 7.70* 7.27* 8.76* 7.20Crushings . . 7.10* 6.72 7.00 6.31Other use. . . .43* .30* .39* .36*

7.20

.

Biggest jump inCanada

Farmer selling?

27 Nov 2013


End.stocks. . 2.00* .61 .75* 2.19End.stocks. . .61 .75* 2.19

Record crops of sunfl.seed inthe EU (8.5 Mn T) and C.I.S.(20.2 Mn) this year

- -

Sunflowerseed and Oil

660

720

780

Weekly Oilseed Prices in the EU (US-$/T)


.creating price discounts

In Sep/Nov sunseed pricesbelow soya & rapeseed

Black Sea sun oil started torecover- - now at US $ 910

480

540

600

Sunseed, EU

27 Nov 2013


World sun oil output +1.7 Mn

From Jan 2011 to 14 Nov 2013

Jan11 MarMay Jly SepNov Ja12Mar Ma y Jly Se p Nov Ja13 Ma rMa y Jly Se p Nov

360

Rapeseed, EU


19/29

19

World consumption of alloils & fats more thandoubled in the latest 20years to 188 Mn T in 12/13

200palm oil + palmkernel oil

15 other oi ls & fats

World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats

Mn T

Growing Dominance of Palm Oil & Palmkernel Oil Worldwide

Palm oi l and Pkernel oil:annual growth rates weremore than double of thoseof other oils & fats.

100

150

27 Nov 2013


worldwide for :- - 33% of consumption- - 63% of exports

98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14

0

45

50

55

60

17 Oils & Fats: Wor ld Productio n (Mn T)

Palm oil

Palm o il has becomethe most importantveg. oil wor ldwide

Palm oil production was

15

20

25

30

35

Rape o il

Soya oil

9 Other oils4 An imal Fats

times in the past 20 years

from 14 Mn T in 1993/94

and is estimated to reach59 Mn T in 2013/14,

27 Nov 2013


91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14

0

5

10Sun oil

Thereof: Malaysia 20 Mnand Indonesia 30 Mn T


20/29

20

Rising Dependence on Palm Oil

3639424548

Soy, Rape, Sun Oils

4 Animal Fa ts

Palm O il

World Exports in Mn T

17 Oils & Fats

1997/98 - 2012/13: Palm oil exports (blue line)

almost quadrupled

1215182124273033 9 Other

Oils/Fats + 48%

In Oct /Sept 2013/14:

Palm oil exports (blue line)likely to rise to 45 Mn T

27 Nov 2013


97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14

036 Combined exports of soya,

sun & rapeseed oils (red) torecover to 21 Mn T

The Success Story of the past 30 Years Substantial growth in world production of palm oil

In 1980: 4.6 Mn T or 8% of 17 oils & fats


.

In 2000: 21.9 Mn T or 19%

In 2010: 46.1 Mn T or 27% (only 6% of area)

In 2011: 50.8 Mn T or 28% (57% of exports)

27 Nov 2013


In 2012: 53.7 Mn T (plus 5.9 Mn T of Palmkern oil)

In 2013: 56.3 Mn T

In 2020 at least 78 Mn T of palm oil required


21/29

21

SOYA OIL: Production in the past 30 Years

In 1980: 13.4 Mn T or 23% of 17 oils & fats

n : . n or

In 2000: 25.5 Mn T or 19%

In 2010: 40.2 Mn T or 23%

In 2011: 41.5 Mn T or 23%

27 Nov 2013


In 2012: 41.7 Mn T or 22%

In 2013: 42.8 Mn T or 23%

Jan/Dec 2012 total : 183.9 Mn T

17 Oils & Fats: World Consumption, by Category

24.3 Mn (13.2%)

World consumption ofoils/fats reached 184 Mn Tin Jan/Dec 2012

8.8 Mn (4.8%)

. n .

17.1 Mn (9.3%)

Of which:• Food use 133.7 Mn T

• Biofuels – 24.3 Mn T

• Chemicals – 17.1 Mn T

27 Nov 2013


Food use Other (animal feed, etc.)

Chemicals Energy (biofuels)

• Other use – 8.8 Mn T


22/29

22

New Biodiesel

Programme in Brazil:

B7 to be implementedprobably in March 2014

BRAZIL : Biod iesel Pro ductio n ( 1000 T )January / December

This will imply a rise of90-100 per month

Usage of soya oil for bio-diesel may rise 0.7 Mn Tin 2014,

Biodiesel 2014F 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009

Production . . 3380* 2600* 2386 2347 2096 1418

Feedstock usedSoya oil. . . . 2700* 2020* 1794 1906 1738 1098Tallow . . . . . 505* 420* 410 315 266 225Cotton oil . . . 90* 75* 109 86 50 62

* *

27 Nov 2013


requiring sharply highersoybean crush

Bearish for meal

. .

ARGENTIN A : Soya Oil Bal an ce (1000 T )January / December

2014F 2013F 2012 2011 2010 2009Open. stocks . . . 260* 267* 515* 377* 300* 430*Produc tion . . . . . 7373* 6722* 6349 7114 7000 5772Exports . . . . . . . 5000* 4480* 4031 4378 4941 4560

Consumption . . . 2270* 2249* 2567* 2597* 1982* 1342*of which for biodiesel . . . . . 1900* 2104* 2455 2427 1815 1179

electricity . . . . 200* - * - - - -other use(a). . . 170* 145* 112*(b ) 170* 167* 163*

* * * * * *

27 Nov 2013


(a) Mainly food.(b) More sun oil used for food.


23/29

23

1 801 95

1 21 3

T o t a l U s a g e a n d A n n u a l C h a n g e (M n T )1 7 O i l s & F at s : W o r l d D i s ap p e ar an c eDemand Growth

doubled in past 10years (up 62 Mn T)

Rapidly Rising World Consumption of Oils & Fats

7 59 0

1 051 201 351 50

4567891 0

A n n u a l C h an g e

W o r l d D i s ap p e a r a n c e

biofuels population income

27 Nov 2013


8 8/ 89 9 1/ 92 9 4/ 95 9 7/ 98 0 0 /0 1 03 /0 4 06 /0 7 0 9 /1 0 1 3/ 140

1 53 04 5

0123Growth in biodiesel

accelerated in 2013

We at Oil World forecastan increase in globalconsumption of 17oils & fats by 6.7 Mn T

17 OILS & FATS: Consump tion Chan ge (in Mn T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

13/14 F 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10

EU-27. . . . . . . -0.20 * +0.26 -0.33 -0.87 +0.93

U.S.A. . . . . . . . +0.27 * +0.49 +1.19 +0.90 -0.13


Sharply higher usage forbiodiesel in Brazil

Argentina . . . . +0.35 * -0.93 +0.53 +0.55 +0.79

Brazil . . . . . . . +0.76 * +0.04 +0.15 +0.60 +0.88

China, PR . . . +1.08 * +1.09 +1.04 +1.09 +1.38

India . . . . . . . . +0.83 * +0.86 +0.75 +0.48 +0.73

Indonesia . . . +1.13 * +0.95 +0.99 +1.02 +0.60

Malaysia . . . . +0.14 * +0.19 -0.11 +0.08 -0.10

+ * + + + +

27 Nov 2013


w ng ac or n ones a . . . . . . . . . . .World . . . . . . . +6.73 * +5.06 +6.79 +6.26 +7.21


24/29

24

27 Nov 2013


4

5

Palm Oil Soya Oil

Sun Oil Rape Oil

Change on Year in Mn T

World Production of 4 Major Oils

0

1

2

3

27 Nov 2013


O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14

-2

-1


25/29

25

Soya oil futures areundervalued on theCBOTrelative to the worldmarket

51

5355

CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futu res (c/lb)

[email protected], [email protected]

41

43

45

47

Dec 2013


27 Nov 2013


Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013Nov DecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

37

39

900

950

1000

200

400

600Daily Prices of Soya Oil and Basis vs. CBOT Futures

US-$/T

there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport750

800

850

-400

-200

0

points versus CBOT

27 Nov 2013


Daily prices and basis from 3 June until 26 Nov 2013

Jun13 Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

650 -800

-Soya oil, fob Argentina (y1)

Daily basis vs. CBOT soya oil futures (y2)


26/29

26

925

950

Daily Prices o f 2 Oils (in US-$/T)

Soya oil, fob Argentina


850

875

900

27 Nov 2013


Daily pr ices from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013

Aug 1 Aug15 Sep 2 Sep16Sep26 Oct17 Nov 1 Nov26

825

Sun oil, fob Black Sea

1350

1450

1550

Coconut oil, cif Rott.

Crude palm oil, cif Rott.

Daily Prices of 2 Oils (US-$/T)

Coconut oil prices muchtoo high at US $ 1450 in2nd week of Nov

Demand res onse to cur-


950

1050

1150rent huge price premiumshigher than the lossesdone by the terribletyphoon Haiyan

27 Nov 2013


Daily prices from 1 March 2013 till 26 Nov 2013Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

750


27/29

27

8

10Production Demand

Change From Year Ago in Mn T

17 OILS & FATS: Production & Demand

2

4

6

27 Nov 2013



00/01 01/02

02/03 03/04

04/05 05/06

06/07 07/08

08/09 09/10

10/1111/12

12/1313/14

0

8

10Production Ending stocks

Change From Year Ago in Mn T

17 OILS & FATS: Production & End'g StocksWorld production of oils &fats is likely to rise fasterthan consumption incoming months, mainly onaccount of sun oil andpalm oil.


2

4

6In Oct/Dec 2013 the excessof production over demand

will lead to a recovery inworld stocks of all oils &fats

Likel to result in some

27 Nov 2013



06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14

-2

price pressure in the nearterm.


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28

20222426

11

12

1314

17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

Stocks/Usage (%)Stocks (Mn T)

468

10121416

6

7

8

9

10

27 Nov 2013


E n d - S e p t e m b e r

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

02

4

1200

1400

1600

Palm oil, crude cif Rott.

Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill

Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT)

In Europe palm oilestablished a low of US $776 in Dec 2012, endingits price cycle after 48months

200

400

600

800

e a es ow was mucabove those of precedingcycles. But veg.oil prices

moved to a higherplateau since 2007.

Weakness in crudemineral oil prices and

27 Nov 2013


Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 26 Nov 2013

72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 '130

slow down of biodieselproduction (e.g. USA) arepotential bearish factors


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Thank Youfor Your Kind Attention !

If I can be of assistance to you in the future, you are invited tocontact me any time.

More details and background information are given in the Oil WorldWeekly & Monthly Reports, which can all be obtained from the

Internet.

27 Nov 2013


[email protected]


27 Nov 2013


World Vegetable Oil Outlook

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Transcript of World Vegetable Oil Outlook