World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008.

World Trade World Trade Indicators 2008Indicators 2008

http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008

Gianni Zanini and Roumeen IslamGianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam

Singapore, July 18Singapore, July 18thth, 2008, 2008

What is the WTI Project?What is the WTI Project? Comprehensive database of trade-related Comprehensive database of trade-related

indicators of policy and performanceindicators of policy and performance Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07))Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07)) Information on other trade databases and linksInformation on other trade databases and links

Online ToolOnline Tool Country rankings (default and customized)Country rankings (default and customized) Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized)Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized) Users can choose time periods and country groupsUsers can choose time periods and country groups

210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) 210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) tablestables

139 Country briefs139 Country briefs Overview reportOverview report

Why?Why?

Provide impetus for trade policy changes by Provide impetus for trade policy changes by highlighting performance relative to highlighting performance relative to competitors/partners competitors/partners

Support trade negotiations and policy design Support trade negotiations and policy design by facilitating overtime and cross-country by facilitating overtime and cross-country comparison of different dimensions of policy comparison of different dimensions of policy affecting trade outcomesaffecting trade outcomes

Highlight gaps in the dataHighlight gaps in the data

Has Some New IndicatorsHas Some New Indicators

Database assembles existing information Database assembles existing information and provides new indicatorsand provides new indicators

Production weighted tariff averagesProduction weighted tariff averages Share of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rateShare of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rate MFN zero duty imports and exportsMFN zero duty imports and exports Imports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUsImports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUs Utilization rates and value of EU and US preferencesUtilization rates and value of EU and US preferences Extent of services trade liberalization commitmentsExtent of services trade liberalization commitments Index of import concentration from UNCTADIndex of import concentration from UNCTAD Export and import destination concentraton indicesExport and import destination concentraton indices Share of top 5 exports in total exportsShare of top 5 exports in total exports

Structure of WTI database: Structure of WTI database: organizing for usersorganizing for users

TRADE OUTCOME

TRADEPOLICY

EXTERNALENVIRONMENT

TRADE FACILITATION

BUSINESS/INSTITUTIONALENVIRONMENT

WTI FunctionalitiesWTI Functionalities

Views (see handout)Views (see handout) Country RankingsCountry Rankings Country SnapshotsCountry Snapshots Country ComparisonsCountry Comparisons Overtime ComparisonsOvertime Comparisons MapMap

Ranking by trade policy I: Ranking by trade policy I: 2006, top 20, 2006, top 20,

MFN TTRIMFN TTRI Indicators Category Trade Policy

TTRI (MFN applied tariff) - All GoodsRank Country 2006-07 latest

1 Hong Kong, China 01 Singapore 03 Switzerland 0.976894 Turkey 1.521255 Papua New Guinea 1.687636 Mauritius 1.965277 Iceland 1.983938 Kazakhstan 2.055719 Norway 2.09762

10 Israel 2.3489911 United States 2.4235912 Moldova 2.94565

13 United Arab Emirates 2.9591514 Australia 3.0819115 Canada 3.3325916 Kyrgyz Republic 3.500517 New Zealand 3.547518 Brunei 3.7479219 Taiwan, China 3.7549920 Malaysia 3.77901

Ranking by trade policy II: Ranking by trade policy II: 2007, top 20, 2007, top 20,

MF

NM

FN

Ap

pli

edA

pp

lied

2007

Tar

iff

Ave

rag

e20

07 T

arif

f A

vera

ge

2006

im

po

rt20

06 i

mp

ort

wei

gh

ted

wei

gh

ted

Indicators Category Trade Policy

MFN applied tariff - Weighted

Average - All Goods (%)Rank Country 2006-07 latest

1 Hong Kong, China 01 Macao, China 01 Singapore 03 United States 1.932624864 Mauritius 2.0734088715 Georgia 2.2527862256 Norway 2.3033730297 Taiwan, China 2.353657668 Papua New Guinea 2.371868499 Japan 2.8377997710 Haiti 2.86843405911 Israel 2.88340434512 Iceland 3.03515524113 Switzerland 3.03526767214 EU 3.10666348315 New Zealand 3.38629315716 Philippines 3.40640431117 Canada 3.70684929718 Moldova 3.78069706619 Indonesia 3.81203117220 Kyrgyz Republic 3.923271407

Ranking by policy: latest 2006-Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20, equal weights07, top 20, equal weights

Rank Country Trade PolicyExternal Environment

Institutional Environment

Trade Facilitation

1 Singapore 1 43 1 1

2 Norway 9 16 11 16

3 Canada 15 21 7 10

4 Switzerland 3 33 16 7

5 I srael 10 9 29 33

6 Hong Kong, China 1 71 4 8

7 United States 11 63 3 14

8 United Kingdom 21 73 6 9

9 Denmark 21 73 5 13

9 Sweden 21 73 14 4

11 I reland 21 73 8 11

11 Malaysia 20 42 24 27

13 Germany 21 73 20 3

13 Netherlands 21 73 21 2

15 Finland 21 73 13 15

16 Austria 21 73 25 5

17 Belgium 21 73 19 12

18 Turkey 4 37 57 34

19 France 21 73 31 18

19 J apan 52 73 12 6

19 Taiwan, China 19 53 50 21

Ranking by policy: latest 2006-Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20 developing, equal 07, top 20 developing, equal weightsweights

OverallRank Country Trade Policy

ExternalEnvironment

InstitutionalEnvironment Trade Facilitation

11 Malaysia 20 42 24 27

18 Turkey 4 37 57 34

23 Chile 65 16 33 32

27 Latvia 21 73 22 42

33 South Africa 62 49 35 24

34 Hungary 21 73 45 35

35 Slovak Republic 21 73 32 50

36 Lithuania 21 73 26 58

39 Papua New Guinea 5 5 84 95

40 Bulgaria 64 36 46 55

41 Poland 21 73 74 40

42 Mauritius 6 44 27 133

43 Mexico 107 4 44 56

44 Thailand 71 98 15 31

46 Peru 76 33 58 59

47 China 57 59 83 30

48 Oman 109 26 49 48

50 Romania 116 23 48 51

51 Kazakhstan 8 30 71 134

52 Mongolia 49 26 52 137

Ranking by policy: latest 2006-Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, bottom 20 all, equal weights07, bottom 20 all, equal weights

Rank Country Trade PolicyExternal Environment

Institutional Environment

Trade Facilitation

97 Cameroon 114 46 154 84

98 Cote d'I voire 80 68 155 102

98 Guyana 110 49 104 142

100 Gabon 119 12 144 135

101 Madagascar 101 48 149 121

102 Niger 99 9 169 144

103 Mozambique 68 114 134 110

104 Uganda 115 114 118 83

105 Cambodia 90 120 145 81

106 Benin 98 122 151 89

107 Eritrea 63 104 171 125

107 Tanzania 88 107 130 138

109 Malawi 125 124 127 91

110 Senegal 94 111 162 101

111 Nepal 120 123 111 131

112 Togo 95 118 156 120

113 Mali 102 121 158 109

114 Burundi 104 102 174 113

115 Burkina Faso 100 125 161 122

116 Rwanda 121 119 150 149

Tariffs have been falling, but remain high in low-income countries and SAS, MNA, and SSA. Singapore has close to zero tariffs.

MFN tariff, import weightedMFN tariff, import weighted

0

5

10

15

20

25

EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA

MF

N T

rad

e W

eig

hte

d T

arif

f (%

)

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2006 2006-07 latest

In agriculture most countries are more In agriculture most countries are more protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among lowest. lowest.

MFN tariff, import weighted, agricultureMFN tariff, import weighted, agriculture

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


MF

N T

rad

e W

eig

hte

d A

vera

ge

- A

gri

cult

ure

(%

)

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2006 2006-07 latest

Some countries increased their tariffs Some countries increased their tariffs in recent yearsin recent years ((but not Madagascar)but not Madagascar)

Country

1995-99 (%)

2000–04 (%)

2007 (%)

Absolute increase

between 2007 and 2000-04

Percent increase

between 2007 and 2000-04 (%)

Bosnia and Herzegovina .. 6 7 1 16.7 Russian Federation 11.8 9.8 11.1 1.3 13.3 Sri Lanka 20.9 9.9 11.4 1.6 15.2 Lithuania 3.5 3.5 5.3 1.7 51.4 Latvia 4.3 3.5 5.3 1.8 51.4 Iceland 3.7 5.3 7.6 2.3 43.4 Bhutan 15.3 19.4 21.9 2.5 12.9 Zimbabwe 27.9 17.4 20.1 2.7 15.5 Vanuatu .. 13.8 16.6 2.8 20.3 Estonia 0.1 1.6 5.3 3.7 231.3 Uganda .. 8.7 12.6 3.9 44.8 Uzbekistan .. 11 15.6 4.6 41.8 Kazakhstan 9.5 2.8 7.8 5 178.6 Madagascar 6.9 4.6 12.4 7.8 169.6

Services trade commitments vary Services trade commitments vary among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.

SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among lowestlowest

ROW applied tariff, export weightedROW applied tariff, export weighted

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Res

t o

f th

e W

orl

d A

pp

lied

Tra

de

Wei

gh

ted

Ave

rag

e T

arif

f (%

)

2000-2004 2005-2006 2006-07 latest

A high share of exports is MFN duty A high share of exports is MFN duty free, especially for Singaporefree, especially for Singapore

Trade agreements are important for Trade agreements are important for many countries, esp. Singapore, but many countries, esp. Singapore, but less so for low-income countriesless so for low-income countries

Share of Exports to preferential partners, %Share of Exports to preferential partners, %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Sh

are

of

Tra

de

wit

h F

TA

/CU

Par

tner

s -

Exp

ort

s (%

)

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005 2006

Value of EU and US preferences vary Value of EU and US preferences vary from almost nil (as for Singapore) to from almost nil (as for Singapore) to modest, even for most LDCsmodest, even for most LDCs as a % of bilateral exportsas a % of bilateral exports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Pre

fere

nce

s (E

U+U

S)

Act

ual

Val

ue

(%)

2005 2006

Most country groups had substantial Most country groups had substantial real trade growth, but low-income real trade growth, but low-income countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down in 2007in 2007

Real growth of trade (g+s, %)Real growth of trade (g+s, %)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Rea

l Gro

wth

in T

ota

l Tra

de

(%)

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2006 2007

Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with lower tariffs have countries with lower tariffs have higher merchandise trade integrationhigher merchandise trade integration

AFG

ALB

DZA

AGO

ATG

ARG

ARM

AUS

AUT

AZE

BHS

BHR

BGD

BRB

BLR

BEL

BLZ

BEN

BMU

BTN

BOL

BIH BWA

BRA

BRN

BGR

BFA BDI

KHM

CMR

CAN

CPV

CAF

TCDCHL

CHN

COL

ZAR

COG

CRI

CIVHRV

CYP

CZE

DNK

DJI

DMADOM

ECU

EGY

SLV

GNQ

EST

ETH

FIN

FRA

GAB

GEO

DEU

GHA

GRC

GRD

GTM

GNB

GUY

HTI

HND

HUN

ISL

IND

IDN

IRN

IRL

ISR

ITA

JAM

JPN

JOR

KAZ

KEN

KOR

KWTKGZ

LAO

LVA

LBN

LSO

LBY

LTU

LUX

MAC

MKD

MDG

MWI

MYS

MDV

MLI

MLT

MRT

MUS

MEX

MDA

MNG

MNE

MARMOZ

NAM

NPL

NLD

NZL

NIC

NER

NGA

NOR

OMN

PAKPAN

PNG

PRY

PER

PHL

POLPRT

QAT

ROM

RUS

RWA

SAU

SEN

SRB

SYC

SVK

SVN

SLB

ZAFESP

LKAKNALCA

VCT

SDN

SUR

SWZ

SWE CHE

SYR

TWN

TJK

TZA

THA

TGO

TTO

TUN

TUR

TKM

UGA

UKR

ARE

GBR

USA

URY

UZBVUT

VEN

VNM

YEM

ZMB

ZWE

18.4

180.

7

Merchandise Trade Integration, 1995-2006

0 10 20 30

Applied Simple Average Tariff, 1995-2006

Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate countries with better business climate are more integratedare more integrated

0100

200

300

Tra

de inte

gra

tion

0 50 100 150 200Doing Business

Trade integration Vs. Doing business rank, 2005-06

Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate countries with better business climate have higher manufacturing shareshave higher manufacturing shares

ALBATG

ARG

ARM

AUS

AUT

AZE

BLR

BEL

BLZ

BENBOL

BIHBRA

BGR

BDI

CAN

CPVCHL

CHN

COL

CRI

CIV

HRV

CZE

DNK

DMA

ECU

EGY

SLV

EST

FJI

FIN

FRA

GMB

GEO

DEU

GHAGRC

GRD

GTM

GUY

HND

HKG HUN

ISL

IND

IDN

IRL

ISR

ITA

JAM

JPN

JOR

KAZ

KOR

KGZ

LVA

LTU

LUX

MKD

MDG

MYS

MDV

MUS

MEX

MDA

MNG

MAR

MOZ

NAM

NLD

NZL

NIC

NERNOR

OMN

PAK

PAN

PRYPER

PHL

POL

PRT

ROM

RUS

SAU

SYC

SGP

SVN

ZAF

ESP

LKA

KNA

LCAVCT

SDN

SWZ

SWE

CHE

SYR

TWN

TZA

THA

TGO

TTO

TUN

TUR

UGA

UKR

GBR

USA

URY

VEN

VNM

YEM

ZMB

020

4060

80

Manufacture share in export, 2005-06

0 50 100 150 200

Doing Business Rank, 2005-06

Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with better regulatory countries with better regulatory quality have stronger export quality have stronger export diversificationdiversification

ALB

DZA

ADO

AGO

ATG

ARG

ARM

ABW

AUS

AUT

AZE

BHS

BHR

BGD

BRB

BLR

BEL

BLZ

BEN BMU

BTNBOL

BIH

BWA

BRA

BRN

BGR

BFABDI

KHM

CMR

CAN

CPVCAF

CHL

CHN

COL

COM

ZAR

COG

CRI

CIV

HRV

CUB

CYP

CZEDNK

DJI

DMA

DOM

ECU

EGY

SLV

GNQ

ERI

EST

ETH

FJI

FIN

FRA

GAB

GMB

GEO

DEU

GHA

GRC

GRD

GTM

GIN

GNB

GUY

HTI

HND

HKGHUN

ISL

INDIDN

IRN

IRQ

IRL

ISR

ITA

JAM

JPNJOR

KAZ

KEN

KIR

PRK

KOR

KWT

KGZLAO

LVALBN

LSO

LBY

LTU

LUX

MAC

MKDMDG

MWI

MYS

MDV

MLI

MLT

MRT

MUS

MEX

FSM

MDA

MNG

MAR

MOZ

MMR

NAM

NPL

NLD

NCL

NZL

NIC

NER

NGA

NOR

OMN

PAK

PANPNGPRY

PER

PHL

POL PRT

QAT

ROM

RUS

RWA

WSM

STP

SAU

SEN

SRB

SYCSLE

SGP

SVKSVN

SLB

ZAF

ESP

LKA

KNA

LCAVCT

SDN

SUR

SWZ

SWECHE

SYR

TWN

TJK

TZA

THA

TMPTGO

TON TTO

TUN

TUR

TKM

UGA

UKR

ARE

GBR

USA

URY

UZB

VUT

VEN

VNM

YEM

ZMB

ZWE

020

4060

8010

0

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

WGI-Regulatory Quality, 2005-06

Exp

ort

C

on

cen

tra

tion

In

de

x,

20

05

-06

Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with more diversified exports countries with more diversified exports have lower export growth volatility (00-have lower export growth volatility (00-06)06)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100

Export concentration index

Exp

ort g

row

th v

olat

ility

Trade Policy: Trade Policy: MFN TTRI 2006MFN TTRI 2006Singapore’s rank is 1Singapore’s rank is 1stst of 125 of 125

BRIICS

United States

Sw itzerland

Singapore

Hong Kong, China

High income OECDs Average

High income non-OECDs Average

EU24

East Asia- Pacif ic Average

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

TTRI (MFN applied, %), 2006-07 latest

External Environment: External Environment: MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006Singapore’s rank is 43Singapore’s rank is 43rdrd of 125 of 125

BRIICS

United States

Sw itzerland

Singapore

Hong Kong, China



EU24


0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

MA-TTRI (%), 2006-07 latest

Institutional Environment: Institutional Environment: Ease of Doing Business, 2007Ease of Doing Business, 2007Singapore’s rank is 1Singapore’s rank is 1stst of 178 of 178

BRIICS

United States

Sw itzerland

Singapore

Hong Kong, China



EU24


0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Ease of Doing Business Rank (out of 178, worst), 2006-07 latest

BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics Performance Index 2006Performance Index 2006Singapore’s rank is 1Singapore’s rank is 1stst of 151 of 151

BRIICS

United States

Sw itzerland

Singapore

Hong Kong, China



EU24


0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Logistics Performance Index (out of 5, best), 2006-07 latest

BRIICS’ Trade Outcome:BRIICS’ Trade Outcome:Real Trade Growth, 2007Real Trade Growth, 2007Singapore’s rank is 80Singapore’s rank is 80thth of 160 of 160

United States

Sw itzerland

Singapore

Hong Kong, China



EU24


0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1

Real Growth in Total Trade (g+s, %), 2006-07 latest

Global patterns and trends: Global patterns and trends: summary findingssummary findings

Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of preferences, has fallen in all regions and income preferences, has fallen in all regions and income groups from the mid-1990s to 2007groups from the mid-1990s to 2007

In low income countries, it fell by over 45%.In low income countries, it fell by over 45%. High income countries still have lowest averages, but High income countries still have lowest averages, but

they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are especially high in areas of export interest to developing especially high in areas of export interest to developing countries, esp. agric & garments.countries, esp. agric & garments.

Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in low-income but also in middle income countries.low-income but also in middle income countries.

Global patterns and trends: Global patterns and trends: summary findings (cont.)summary findings (cont.) There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation

between high-income and developing countries, but between high-income and developing countries, but South Africa is 24South Africa is 24thth and China 30 and China 30th th of 150.of 150.

Countries whose institutional environments are better Countries whose institutional environments are better tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend to be more integrated in the world economy.to be more integrated in the world economy.

Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and export performance export performance

Singapore’s TAAG: Singapore’s TAAG: summary findingssummary findings

Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually duty free tariff schedule, but…duty free tariff schedule, but… substantial tariffs on some agricultural importssubstantial tariffs on some agricultural imports high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001)high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001) weak services trade liberalization commitmentsweak services trade liberalization commitments

High openness of foreign marketsHigh openness of foreign markets Best business environment and trade facilitationBest business environment and trade facilitation Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but… Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but…

little change in merch/services export structurelittle change in merch/services export structure some increase in export product concentrationsome increase in export product concentration halving of growth in 2007halving of growth in 2007

Next StepsNext Steps

Improve website functionalitiesImprove website functionalities Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and

TAAGs by December 2008TAAGs by December 2008 Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool, Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool,

TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by September 2009September 2009

http://www.worldbank.org/wti orhttp://www.worldbank.org/wti or http://www.worldbank.org/tradehttp://www.worldbank.org/trade or or http://http://worldbank.org/wbiworldbank.org/wbi

World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008.

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Transcript of World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008.