World Trade and Exchange Rates From the Pax Americana to a ... · World Trade and Exchange Rates...

World Trade and Exchange Rates From the Pax Americana to a Multilateral New OrderLORD MERVYN KINGFormer Governor of the Bank of England

SEVENTEENTH ANNUAL STAVROS NIARCHOS FOUNDATION LECTURE AND DINNER

TUESDAY, MAY 16, 2017

2 Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture Series | Seventeenth Annual LORD MERVYN KING | World Trade and Exchange Rates 3

The annual Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture Series at the Peterson Institute for International Economics was established in 2001 through the generous support of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation. The Series enables the Institute to present a leader of world economic policy and thinking for a major address each year on a topic of central concern to the US and international policy communities. The Series’ inaugural lecture was delivered by Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, in 2001. The list of subsequent speakers includes Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico, in 2003; Lawrence H. Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and Chair of the National Economic Council, in 2004; Long Yongtu, former Vice Minister of China’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, in 2005; Mario Monti, former Prime Minister of Italy, in 2006; Heizō Takenaka, former Minister for Economic Policy of Japan, in 2007; Petr Aven, former President of Alfa Bank, in 2008; Nandan M. Nilekani, former Co-Chairman of the Board of Directors, Infosys Technologies, LTD, in 2009; Niall Ferguson, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History, Harvard University, in 2010; John Lipsky, former First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, in 2011; Jean-Claude Trichet, former President of the European Central Bank, in 2012; C. Fred Bergsten, Senior Fellow and Director Emeritus, Peterson Institute for International Economics, in May 2013; Antonis Samaras, former Prime Minister of Greece, in October 2013; Mari Elka Pangestu, former Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy of Indonesia, in 2014; Agustín Carstens, Governor of the Bank of Mexico, in April 2015; David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, in May 2016; and Lord Mervyn King, British Economist and former Governor of the Bank of England, May 2017.

About the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture Series

LORD MERVYN KING | World Trade and Exchange Rates 3

The Stavros Niarchos Foundation [(SNF) (www.SNF.org)] is one of the world’s leading private, international philanthropic organizations, making grants in the areas of arts and culture, education, health and sports, and social welfare. Since 1996, SNF has committed $1.9 billion, through 3,801 grants to nonprofit organizations in 112 nations around the world. The Foundation funds organizations and projects that are expected to achieve a broad, lasting and positive impact for society at large, and exhibit strong leadership and sound management. The Foundation also supports projects that facilitate the formation of public-private partnerships as an e¨ective means for serving public welfare.

In addition to its standard grants, the SNF has continued to respond to the urgent needs of Greek society, by providing relief against the severe e¨ects of the socioeconomic crisis through three major grant initiatives of $378 million.

The Foundation’s largest single gift is the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Cultural Center (SNFCC), in Athens. The project’s total cost is $861 million. The SNFCC is designed by the renowned architectural firm Renzo Piano Building Workshop, and includes the new facilities of the National Library of Greece, and Greek National Opera, as well as the Stavros Niarchos Park. The Center was delivered to the Greek Society on February 23rd, 2017. Following the handover, the SNF announced its commitment to continue supporting the SNFCC for the next five years, through grants totaling up to $53 million. The grants support the implementation of public programming and help cover part of SNFCC’s operational costs. All events funded with SNF support are free to the public.

The SNF does not engage in any “for profit” activities in Greece or abroad, and it is audited by Deloitte.

http://www.snf.org/

http://www.snf.org/en/grants/grant-allocation/

http://www.snf.org/en/grants/world-map-of-grants/

http://www.snf.org/en/grants/world-map-of-grants/

https://www.snfcc.org/default.aspx

4 Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture Series | Seventeenth Annual

5:30 pm WELCOME DR. ADAM S. POSEN President, Peterson Institute for International Economics

MR. ANDREAS DRACOPOULOS Co-President and Director, Stavros Niarchos Foundation

THE HONORABLE PETER G. PETERSON Chairman, Peterson Institute for International Economics

THE HONORABLE LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus, Harvard University

LECTURE, Q & A LORD MERVYN KING Former Governor of the Bank of England

6:45 pm RECEPTION In the Anthony M. Solomon Sculpture Garden

7:15 pm DINNER By invitation only

8:30 pm CLOSING DR. ADAM S. POSEN President, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Program


LORD KING OF LOTHBURY, KG, GBE, FBA

Mervyn King served as Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee and Financial Policy Committee from 2003–June 2013. He was previously Deputy Governor from 1998 to 2003, Chief Economist and Executive Director from 1991, and non-executive director of the Bank from 1990 to 1991. He was knighted (GBE) in 2011, made a life peer in 2013, and appointed by The Queen to be a Knight of the Garter in 2014.

Lord King took up a position as Professor of Economics and Law at New York University in September 2014, and a position as School Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics in 2015.

Born in 1948, Mervyn King studied at King’s College, Cambridge, and Harvard (as a Kennedy Scholar) and taught at Cambridge and Birmingham Universities before spells as Visiting Professor at both Harvard University and MIT. From October 1984 he was Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics where he founded the Financial Markets Group.

Mervyn King is a Fellow of the British Academy, an Honorary Fellow of King’s and St John’s Colleges, Cambridge and holds honorary degrees from Birmingham, Cambridge, City of London, Edinburgh, London Guildhall, London School of Economics, Wolverhampton, Worcester, Helsinki, Abertay, Dundee and Kent Universities. He is a Foreign Honorary Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, is on the Advisory Council of the London Symphony Orchestra, is President of Worcestershire County Cricket Club and a Trustee of the National Gallery.

About Lord Mervyn King


About Lord Mervyn King


The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private nonpartisan, nonprofit institution for rigorous, intellectually open, and indepth study and discussion of international economic policy. Its purpose is to identify and analyze important issues to make globalization beneficial and sustainable for the people of the United States and the world, and then to develop and communicate practical new approaches for dealing with those issues.

The Institute attempts to anticipate emerging issues and to be ready with practical ideas, presented in useful and accessible formats, to inform and shape public debate. Its audience includes government o°cials and legislators, business and labor leaders, management and sta¨ at international organizations, university-based scholars and their students, experts at other research institutions and nongovernmental organizations, the media, and the public at large. It addresses these groups globally from its home in Washington, DC.

The Institute’s sta¨ of about 70 includes 20 senior researchers, as well as 15 nonresident fellows, all distinguished for their combination of research expertise and policy experience. The Institute’s agenda emphasizes international trade and investment, international finance and exchange rates, macroeconomic policy and crisis response, globalization and human welfare, and studies of key economic regions. Institute sta¨ have unique expertise on the major economies with special reference to China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the Middle East, as well as the United States itself and its NAFTA partners.

About the Peterson Institute for International Economics


Current priorities include:

> improving macroeconomic policy after the global financial crisis;> truth telling about the benefits of globalization and the costs of closed

economies;> the rebalancing of China’s growth model and its impact on the world

economy;> globalization, inequality, and labor market adjustment; > exchange rate interventions and reform of the international monetary

system;> regional trade agreements and multinational investment, notably the

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); > practical growth models for Europe, Japan, and the United States; and> financial stability, including cost-benefit analysis of global regulation.

Institute studies have helped provide the intellectual foundation for many of the major international policy initiatives of the past three decades:

> reforms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), initiated by the G-20 in 2009–10;

> reform of US sanctions policy;> quantitative easing and adapting monetary policy to a low interest rate

world; > creation of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and

the TPP initiative;> initiation and implementation of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue

between the United States and China;> the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other US free

trade agreements (notably with Korea);

> adoption of international banking standards and broader financial regulatory reforms;

> countercyclical fiscal policy and increased female labor force participation in Japan;

> the restoration of trade promotion authority in the United States; and> linking fiscal stimulus and structural reform in the euro area.

Other influential analyses have addressed:

> economic reform in the European Union, the former communist countries, and Latin America (including what became known as the Washington Consensus);

> foreign direct investment into and out of the United States;> the sources, benefits, and growth of services trade;> the impact on wages of trade liberalization; > reconsidering the “Resource Curse” and the “Middle Income Trap;” > the links between gender and diversity and corporate profitability; and> measures of currency manipulation and of equilibrium exchange rates.

The Institute celebrated its 25th anniversary in 2006 and adopted its new name at that time, having previously been the Institute for International Economics. In 2001 it moved into its own building, which received an Award of Excellence for Extraordinary Achievement in Architecture by the American Institute of Architects.

Please learn more about our programs and research at www.piie.com.


“There is no institute anywhere in the world…that comes close to having the breadth and depth that the [Peterson] Institute for International Economics has in its devotion to international economic studies all over the world.”

STUART EIZENSTAT, Former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and Undersecretary of State

“No one has led analysis and discussion of international economics like the Peterson Institute.”

TOM KEENE, Host of Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance

“…research institutes vary widely in both quality and honesty. Among the best on both counts is the [Peterson] Institute for International Economics.”

PAUL R. KRUGMAN, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Graduate Center of the City University of New York

“The Peterson Institute does the single best job of think tanks in this town, hands down, of having the best audience. The discussions that go on here are tremendous.”

MAYA MACGUINEAS, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

“I have continued to follow with interest the important and meaningful work of PIIE. You and your colleagues continue to be a strong, serious, and thoughtful voice on the important economic and geopolitical issues of the day. In my view, the Peterson Institute is singular and distinct in that regard.”

THOMAS (MACK) MCLARTY, President of McLarty Associates and Special Envoy for the Americas during the Clinton Administration

“In terms of [the Peterson Institute for International Economics’] ability to shape policy discussion and influence the outcome, there isn’t an organization outside government that can touch it.”

STEVEN PEARLSTEIN, Washington Post

Praise for the Peterson Institute for International Economics


“I don’t think there have been many institutions outside the government, if any, that have had the same kind of impact on global economic thinking as the [Peterson] Institute for International Economics.”

LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS, Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University, former Secretary of Treasury and Chair of the National Economic Council

“…the emblematic think tank of our time.”

JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET, Chairman of the Group of Thirty; former President, European Central Bank

“One of the things that has always astounded me about [the Institute] is they always have a book coming out about the subject that you just realized was important.”

DAVID WESSEL, Wall Street Journal and Brookings Institution

“…without any doubt the preeminent organization in the world operating outside government and outside universities…in analysis of international economic problems. Its publications over the years have been an invaluable reference source for all journalists working the field…”

MARTIN WOLF, Chief economics commentator, Financial Times

“One of the reasons I’ve enjoyed being at the Peterson Institute [for International Economics] is that you find places that will now and then have policy proposals and some that do scholarship. It is very rare to find one that really combines the two in a very e�ective way.”

ROBERT B. ZOELLICK, Chairman, International Country Advisors, Goldman Sachs & Company


ADAM S. POSENPresident

MARCUS NOLANDExecutive Vice President and Director of Studies

STEVEN R. WEISMANVice President for Publications and Communications

C. FRED BERGSTENSenior Fellow and Director Emeritus

OLIVIER BLANCHARDC. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow

CHAD P. BOWNSenior Fellow

LEE G. BRANSTETTERNonresident Senior Fellow

WILLIAM R. CLINESenior Fellow

JÉRÉMIE COHEN-SETTONResearch Fellow

MONICA DE BOLLESenior Fellow

JOSÉ DE GREGORIONonresident Senior Fellow

SIMEON DJANKOVNonresident Senior Fellow

KAREN DYNANNonresident Senior Fellow

CAROLINE FREUNDSenior Fellow

JASON FURMANSenior Fellow

JOSEPH E. GAGNONSenior Fellow

ANNA GELPERNNonresident Senior Fellow

MORRIS GOLDSTEINNonresident Senior Fellow

EGOR GORNOSTAYResearch Statistician and Quality Control Coordinator

CULLEN S. HENDRIXNonresident Senior Fellow

PATRICK HONOHANNonresident Senior Fellow

GARY CLYDE HUFBAUERReginald Jones Senior Fellow

OLIVIER JEANNESenior Fellow

J. BRADFORD JENSENNonresident Senior Fellow

SIMON JOHNSONSenior Fellow

JACOB FUNK KIRKEGAARDSenior Fellow

NICHOLAS R. LARDYAnthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow

ROBERT Z. LAWRENCENonresident Senior Fellow

THEODORE H. MORANNonresident Senior Fellow

LINDSAY OLDENSKINonresident Senior Fellow

SHERMAN ROBINSONNonresident Senior Fellow

JEFFREY J. SCHOTTSenior Fellow

NATHAN SHEETSVisiting Fellow

DAVID J. STOCKTONSenior Fellow

ARVIND SUBRAMANIANDennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow (on leave for public service)

EDWIN M. TRUMANNonresident Senior Fellow

NICOLAS VÉRONVisiting Fellow

JUSTIN WOLFERSNonresident Senior Fellow

JEROMIN ZETTELMEYERSenior Fellow

Senior Research Sta�


The Board of Directors’ principal goal is to protect and strengthen PIIE’s excellence as an independent, nonpartisan, and intellectually rigorous policy research organization that contributes to the public’s understanding of the challenges and opportunities posed by the global interdependent economy. The Board of Directors is comprised of a diverse group of business leaders, former high-level government o°cials, and international civil servants, and distinguished scholars.

The Executive Committee (indicated by *) of our Board of Directors bears legal responsibility for PIIE’s direction, while regularly evaluating PIIE’s performance in pursuit of our mission.

Senior Management is responsible for setting PIIE’s agenda in consultation with the Board of Directors, the research sta¨, and other stakeholders.

CAROLINE ATKINSON

AJAY BANGA

*C. FRED BERGSTEN

MARK T. BERTOLINI

BEN VAN BEURDEN

NANCY BIRDSALL

FRANK BROSENS

RONNIE C. CHAN

SUSAN M. COLLINS

RICHARD N. COOPER

*ANDREAS C. DRACOPOULOS

BARRY EICHENGREEN

*JESSICA EINHORN

PETER FISHER

DOUGLAS FLINT

*STEPHEN FREIDHEIM

JACOB A. FRENKEL

MAURICE R. GREENBERG

HERBJORN HANSSON

STEPHEN HOWE, JR.

HUGH F. JOHNSTON

MICHAEL KLEIN

NOBUYORI KODAIRA

CHARLES D. LAKE II

ANDREW N. LIVERIS

SERGIO MARCHIONNE

PIP MCCROSTIE

*HUTHAM S. OLAYAN

PETER R. ORSZAG

*MICHAEL A. PETERSON

JONATHAN PRUZAN

JOHN G. RICE

GINNI M. ROMETTY

*LYNN FORESTER DE ROTHSCHILD

*RICHARD E. SALOMON

SHEIKH HAMAD SAUD AL-SAYARI

*LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS

MOSTAFA TERRAB

RONALD A. WILLIAMS

MIN ZHU

*ROBERT B. ZOELLICK

Honorary DirectorsGEORGE DAVID

ALAN GREENSPAN

CARLA A. HILLS

FRANK E. LOY

GEORGE P. SHULTZ

JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET

PAUL A. VOLCKER

ERNESTO ZEDILLO

Senior Research Sta�

*PETER G. PETERSON, Chairman | *JAMES W. OWENS, Chairman, Executive Committee

Board of Directors

LORD MERVYN KING | World Trade and Exchange Rates 1514 Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture Series | Seventeenth Annual

May 24, 2016 DAVID LIPTION, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

April 20, 2015 AGUSTÍN CARSTENS, Governor of the Bank of Mexico

April 29, 2014 MARI ELKA PANGESTU, former Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy of Indonesia

October 1, 2013 ANTONIS C. SAMARAS, former Prime Minister of Greece

May 16, 2013 C. FRED BERGSTEN, Senior Fellow and Director Emeritus, Peterson Institute for International Economics

May 17, 2012 JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET, former President of the European Central Bank

May 19, 2011 JOHN LIPSKY, former Acting Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

May 13, 2010 NIALL FERGUSON, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University

May 7, 2009 NANDAN M. NILEKANI, former Co-Chairman of the Board of Directors, Infosys Technologies, LTD

May 8, 2008 PETR AVEN, former President of Alfa Bank

May 9, 2007 HEIZŌ TAKENAKA, former Minister for Economic Policy of Japan

May 8, 2006 MARIO MONTI, former Commissioner of the European Union for Competition Policy

May 23, 2005 LONG YONGTU, former Vice Minister of China’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation

March 23, 2004 LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS, former Secretary of the Treasury and Chair of the National Economic Council

May 19, 2003 ERNESTO ZEDILLO, former President of Mexico

October 24, 2001 ALAN GREENSPAN, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board

Previous Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecturers


Previous Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecturers

Peterson Institute for International Economics1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-1903 Phone 202.328.9000 | Fax 202.328.5432

Photography by Jeremey Tripp

World Trade and Exchange Rates From the Pax Americana to a ... · World Trade and Exchange Rates...

Documents

Transcript of World Trade and Exchange Rates From the Pax Americana to a ... · World Trade and Exchange Rates...