WORLD PUMP MARKET 2014 - Holland Pomp Group · Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries...
Transcript of WORLD PUMP MARKET 2014 - Holland Pomp Group · Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries...
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The World Pump Market 2014-2019
Volume I
10 October 2014
support: [email protected]
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
I INTRODUCTION
II GLOBAL ISSUES II 1
World Market Forecasts - This Year and Last Year II 1
Relative Pump Market Size: Industrial and Developing Countries II 3
Impact of Prices and Exchange Rates on Market Size and Growth II 5
Pump Market Summary II 7
Pump Market Size by World Region and End Use (table) II 8
Pump Market Size in General Industry and by Product Type (table) II 9
Cyclical Fluctuations in the Pump Market 2005-2019 (charts by world region) II 10-14
Relative Growth: Industrial and Developing Countries by End Use Industry II 15
World Market for Oil & Gas: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 16
World Market for Chemicals: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 17
Power Generation and the Impact of Renewable Energy - chart II 18
World Market for Municipal Water/Wastewater: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 19
World Market for General Industry: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 20
The Market for Complete Pumps & Actuators in 63 Countries II 21
Pump Market in Asia by country II 22
Pump Market in West Europe by country II 23
Pump Market in East Europe by country II 24
Pump Market in Africa & Middle East by country II 25
Pump Market in America by country II 26
Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment II 27
World GDP and Capital Investment (chart), Growth of World Trade in Manufactured Good II 28
Forecast of GDP Growth by Country, annual 2014-2019 II 29
GDP Growth by Country in West Europe (table) II 30
GDP Growth by Country in East Europe (table) II 31
GDP Growth by Country in Africa & Middle East (table) II 32
GDP Growth by Country in Asia (table) II 33
GDP Growth by Country in America (table) II 34
Contents - Volume I - Page 1
Forecasts for the Growth of Capital Investment in 63 countries II 35
Capital Investment in West Europe by country II 36
Capital Investment in East Europe by country II 37
Capital Investment in Middle East/Africa by country II 39
Capital Investment in Asia Pacific by country II 39
Capital Investment in America by country II 40
Pump Markets in the World's Largest Countries II 41
Key Issues (table) II 41
West Europe (text, chart) II 42
United States (text, chart) II 43
Russia (text, chart) II 44
China (text, chart) II 45
India (text, chart) II 46
Focus on the Pump Market in Japan II 47
Background II 47
Japanese Pump production 2008-2013 II 47-48
Macro-economic prospects for Japan II 49
The Japanese market by end use industry II 49
Complete pump market trends for Japan (chart) II 50
Japanese orders for machinery 2006-2014 II 51-52
Brazil (text, chart) II 48 - 49
Pump Export Summary (text, table) II 54
China as a Supplier II 55
Imports of Complete Pumps by 63 countries, ranked by China's share in 2013 (table) II 56
Imports of Pump Parts by 63 countries, ranked by China's share in 2013 (table) II 57
Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts II 58
The World Pump Market and the Top 25 Pump Companies 2009-2014 (text, table) II 61
Contents - Volume I - Page 2
III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE
Introduction III 1
Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region and Product Type III 2
The World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type (chart) III 3
The Market for Pump Parts III 4
Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 5
Complete Pumps by Product Type III 6
Centrifugal Pumps III 7
Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 8
Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 9
Centrifugal Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 10
Reciprocating Pumps III 11
Reciprocating Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 12
Reciprocating Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 13
Reciprocating Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 14
Rotary Pumps III 15
Rotary Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 16
Rotary Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 17
Rotary Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 18
Residential & Other Pumps III 19
Residential & Other Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 20
Contents - Volume I - Page 3
IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY
Introduction IV 1
Summary of Pump Market Size by end Use Industry IV 2
The World Pump Market by End Use Industry (table) IV 3
Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry IV 4- IV 10
Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps V 11
Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps (chart) IV 12
Market Sizes for Standard Pumps (chart) IV 13
Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps (chart) IV 14
Oil & Gas Production & Refining IV 15
Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries IV 15
Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 16
Oil and Gas Production - market size (chart) IV 17
Oil and Gas Production - market change (chart) IV 18
Onshore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 19
Offhore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 20
Oil Refining - market size (chart) IV 21
Oil Refining - market change (chart) IV 22
Oil Refining - Requirements by Application (table) IV 23
Chemical Industry IV 24
Chemical Industry - World Capital Expenditure (chart wth advanced/developing countries 2001-2019)
IV 25
Trends in Capital Expenditure in Basic Chemicals in the Advanced Coutries IV 26
Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 27-IV 28
Basic Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 29
Basic Chemicals - market change (chart) IV 30
Basic Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 31
Contents - Volume 1 - Page 4
IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY
Other Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 32
Other Chemicals - market change (chart) IV 33
Other Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 34
Power Generation IV 35
Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 35-IV 36
Power Generation - market size (chart) IV 37
Power Generation - market change (chart) IV 38
Coal/Oil Fired Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 39
Gas Turbine/Combined Cycle Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)
IV 40
Nuclear Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 41
Hydroelectric Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 42
Water & Wastewater Treatment IV 43
Water & Wastewater Treatment - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 45-IV 46
Water & Wastewater Treatment - market size (chart) IV 47
Water & Wastewater Treatment - market change (chart) IV 48
Water & Wastewater Treatment - Requirements by World Region (table) IV 49
Contents - Volume 1 - Page 5
IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY
General Industry IV 50
General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 51 - IV 52
Mining (chart on market size) IV 53
World Mining Capital Expenditure (text, chart) IV 54
Mining (chart on change in market size) IV 55
Mining - pump requirements by application IV 56
World Pulp & Paper Capital Expenditure (text, chart) IV 57
Pulp & Paper (charts on market size & growth) IV 58 - IV 59
Pulp & Paper - pump requirements by application IV 60
Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals (charts on market size & growth) IV 61 - IV 62
Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals - pump requirements by application IV 63
Metal Manufacturing (charts on market size & growth) IV 64 - IV 65
Metal Manufacturing - pump requirements by application IV 66
World Shipbuilding Trends (text, chart) IV 67
Marine (charts on market size & growth) IV 68 - IV 69
Marine - pump requirements by application IV 70
Construction Related and Other Industries IV 71
Industrial Buildings (charts on size & growth) IV 71 -72
Construction Dewatering by World Region (table) IV 73 - IV 74
Residential & Other Pumps (charts on size & growth) IV 75 - IV 76
Other Industries (charts on size & growth) IV 77- IV 78
New estimates for construction dewatering (text, chart for USA & China) IV 79
Construction Related and Other Industries - table IV 80
Contents - Volume 1 - Page 6
V SOME CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY
Introduction V 1
Demand Side Technological Change V 1
Supply Side Technologicla Change V 2
Appendix - Methodology 1-3
Contents - Volume 1 - Page 7
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 1
I INTRODUCTION
The entire report consists of two separately-bound volumes which together contain
the following sections:
Volume 1 - Overview
Covers macro-economic developments, the pump market by country, market by pump
type, market by world region and end use industry
I Introduction
II Global Issues
III The Market by Product Type
IV The Market by End Use
Volume 2 - Detailed Results by Country
Analysis by Country - market forecasts for 63 countries
Appendix on Methodology
Free Excel Files
Free excel files cover data for the forecast period shown in the report. They are
available following completion of a form guaranteeing no-disclosure to third parties.
Extra Excel Files
These available to purchasers of the full repor t, (i.e Part I plus Part II) at additional
cost. Details on coverage are given at the end of this section.
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 2
Coverage of the Report (excludes Minor Countries shown in excel files)
The report has the following coverage:
• Covers 4.8 billion of the 6.5 billion world population
• 63 countries with the highest GDP are separately identified
• 90% of world GDP, 85% of the world pump market
• Pump market coverage for most end uses is around 85% of the world market but: - Mining: around 80% - Water & sewerage: around 80%
• What is provided:
- Forecasts 2014-2019: complete pump market by end use and market size for Centrifugal Reciprocating & Rotary
- Historical data 2010-2013: imports of complete pumps and pump parts by product type
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 3
Status of Annual Data Provided in the Report
Although annual results are prov ided, the purpose is to show structural
change by end use industry, country and world region. The annual figures are
intended to capture the shape of the trade cycle, but th ey should not be
regarded as a reliable shor t-term forecast for 2014/15 in full detail. This is
because actual data ends in 2013 and is subject to revision. Figures for the
current year (2014) are estimated and, from past experience, are subject to
significant revision. Moreover it is not possible to take account of specific
short-term developments affecting each end use in the individual countries.
Major Changes Compared with Last Year’s Report
We have carried out revisions to historical m arket size in 2013 for all
countries, based on a revised analysis of pump production and imports. In
addition, data for mining, construction dewatering and chemicals have been
revised substantially. Data for Japan has been re vised, based on recent
government statistics. Forecast growth rates have also been revised in line
with forecasts for GDP and capital investment in each of the 63 countries.
Historical data 2009-2013 are shown for minor countries in the
supplementary excel files (as outlined on Page I 5).
Attribution and Copyright
This report was prepared by European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (EIF). EIF
retains all copyright in the report, which may not be copied, in whole or in
part, or distributed to any organisatio n, person or com pany other than the
subscriber.
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 4
Extra Excel Files (available to purchasers of the full report, i.e Part I and Part II)
These are available at additional cost. The files provide data shown in the report but
also an historical and forecast time series 2001-2019. They also provide a cross-
classification of the market by end use and product type for each of the 63 countries.
The end uses covered are:
OilChemicalsPower GenerationWater & WastewaterGeneral Industry
For each of these end uses, a nd for each country, the pum p market is sub-divided into
the following product types:
Reciprocating - Piston/PlungerReciprocating - OtherReciprocating Pumps
Rotary - GearRotary - VaneRotary - ScrewRotary - OtherRotary Pumps
Centrifugal - Submersible MotorCentrifugal - Single stage, single entry - close coupledCentrifugal - Single stage, single entry - long coupledCentrifugal - Single stage, double suctionCentrifugal - Multistage (exc. submersible & axial/mixed flow)Centrifugal - OtherCentrifugal Pumps
Other Pumps
Total All Pumps
New Extra Excel files for the 2014 Report: please see overleaf
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 5
New Extra Excel Files for the 2014 Report
Data for the following 13 minor countries are included:
AngolaCroatiaCyprusEstoniaGeorgiaJordanKazakhstanLatviaLithuaniaPeruSloveniaSlovakiaUkraine
A summary file shows total market size for each country annually 2009-2013, together
with the CAGR % 2009-2013
A detailed file shows market size for each country annually 2009-2013 subdivided into:
Oil & GasChemicalsPower GenerationWater/WastewaterGeneral Industry
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 1
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
II GLOBAL ISSUES
The growth of China, which averaged over 9% per year for the last two decades, now
seems to have entered a new phase, with underling growth averaging no more than 7.5%
p.a. This may not seem to be a significant difference, but it has a major effect on certain
end use industries, notably m ining and oil and gas. Countries supplying raw materials to
China, notably Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile and South Africa will have to adjust to
a new level of demand. Germany, a major beneficiary of fast growth in China owing to its
dominant position in the supply of capital goods, will also be affected by the slowdown.
On the positive side, a collapse of the Euro - a real possibility last year - appears to have
been averted, at least in the short-term. Some commentators have suggested that world
economic growth is now a thing of the pa st. Although we are m ore optimistic in this
respect, it seems clear that the current weakness in the growth of world trade and GDP
will probably persist for the next 12 months. This is because underlying growth in the
Western world (USA/Canada, West Europe and Japan) was held back by the burden of
accumulated debt.
The forecasts presented in this report reflect expectations that overall world growth will
be relatively slow 2013-2014. Even these c onservative assumptions may prove to be
over-optimistic if there is a further deterioration in the Middle East political situation.
Charts on the next page show annual growth rates and m arket size in the present report,
compared with results from last year. Growth rates are shown in the table below.
This Year Last Year
2013 2.4% 1.5%
2014 2.8% 4.7%
2015 5.1% 6.1%
2016 6.5% 7.1%
2017 7.1% 7.6%
2018 7.8% 8.3%
2019 7.9%
Annual % Change in World Pump Market (includes price inflation)
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 2
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market for Complete Pumps
World - Annual Growth Rates and Market Size - This Year, Last Year
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
World - All End Uses - Oct 2013 Oct-14
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
World - All End Uses - Oct 2013 Oct-14
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 3
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The Relative Growth of Industrial and Developing Countries
Over the twenty years prior to the recession developing country m arkets
for pumps h ave consistently grown faster than those of industrial
countries. Growth was around 9% p.a in developing compared with 6% in
industrial.
Most developing countries experienced recession in 2008-9 owing to
international trade linkages, but m arket decline was generally much less
than in the industrial countries. Ho wever, over the next five years we do
expect that, to a s mall extent, developing countries will improve their
growth rate relative to industrial compared with the last twenty years.
In Asia the growth of China has acted as a catalyst for the whole region.
Growth in Latin America is now expected to be more stable than in the
past. However the recovery of grow th in West Europe, USA/Canada and
Japan is expected to be slower than experienced i n previous recessions
owing to the huge increase in indebtedness as a the result of the financial
crisis.
The growth of the pum p market in industrial and developing countries is
shown on the next page.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 4
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Pump MarketComplete Pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts
Base data $ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
* West Europe, USA/Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand
Relative Pump Market Size: Industrial and Developing Countries$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Industrial Countries* Developing Countries All Countries
$ million $ million $ million$ million 2010 16775 18649 35424
Annual % Growth Rates % % %
2009 % -11.0 -0.5 -6.12010 % -3.5 10.4 3.42011% 10.6 5.2 7.72012% 1.9 7.3 4.72013% 0.5 4.1 2.4Forecast2014 % 2.8 2.8 2.82015% 4.3 5.8 5.12016% 6.1 6.9 6.52017% 7.1 7.1 7.12018% 7.6 7.9 7.82019% 7.8 8.1 7.9
0
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Total All Pumps - Developing Advanced
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 5
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Impact of Prices and Exchange Rates on Market Size and Growth
Numbers throughout this report are presented in doll ars at current
prices, 2010 exchange rates (i.e. including inflation). This price basis is
the closest we can get to results for individual companies (excluding net
acquisitions and currency change). Market size in 2010, on this basis,
was $35.5 billion, rising to $58.8 billion in 2019, as shown in the table on
the next page.
Market at 2010 Prices, 2010 Exchange Rates
If we adjust for domestic market price changes, but value the market at
constant 2010 $ exchange rates (i.e. excluding inflation), the table on the
next page shows that market size in 2019 is $48.8 billion, compared with
$58.8 billion at current prices.
Market at Current Prices, Current Exchange Rates
If we allow for changes in both domestic prices and dollar exchange
rates, market size in 2019 is estimated at $64.3 billion, compared with
$58.8 billion at current prices, 2010 exchange rates. We expect the dollar
exchange rate to depreciate. The table shows our assumptions about the
dollar exchange rate index 2014-2019.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 6
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Pump Market Size on Different Price Bases
(1) Constant Prices, Constant Exchange Rates(2) Current Prices, Constant Exchange Rates (basis for this report)(3) Current Prices, Current Exchange Rates
* price basis for EIF Report in 2014 - results include price inflation
EIF reports before 2011 presented results at constant prices (i.e excluding inflation)
1 2 3Market Price Market Dollar Market
$m 2010 prices Index $m current prices * Exchange Rate $m current prices2010 exchange rates 2010=100 2010 exchange rates Index 2010=100 current exchange rates
2005 27789 93.1 25872 96.6 24992
2010 35529 100 35529 100 355292011 37713 101.5 38279 103.8 397332012 38571 103.9 40076 100.9 404362013 39120 104.9 41037 101.6 416932014 39496 106.8 42182 101.2 426882015 40663 109.0 44323 102.8 455642016 42274 111.7 47221 104.4 492992017 44172 114.5 50577 106.0 536112018 46383 117.5 54500 107.7 586962019 48818 120.5 58826 109.3 64296
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 7
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
PUMP MARKET SUMMARY
Forecasts for the pum p market provided in this report are conditional on
macro-economic assumptions and trends in investment discussed later in this
section. Given these assum ptions, pump market forecasts are arrived at by
regression equations linking historical data on the pump market with
historical data on investment in plant and equipment by end use industry.
This section starts by sum marising the pum p market forecasts and then
continues by providing the macro-economic forecasts and some of the trends
in investment by end use industry which helped to determine the pump
market forecasts.
Market size in 2014 is shown on Page II 8-II 9. The overall growth rate
2014-19 is 6.9%, compared with 2.3% 2008-13. The forecast growth rate is
a little faster than the 6% underlying trend growth, which is explained by
catching up from the below trend performance 2008-13.
The pump market in water/wastewater is shown at the foot of the table on the
next page. All water/wastewater (industrial plus m unicipal) accounts for
around 33% of the world pump market in 2014. These figures exclude pumps
for construction dewatering, industrial buildings and residential buildings.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 8
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Pump Market by Region and End Usecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
1)Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam2) Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand
World Pump Market for Water/Wastewater etccomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
3) Shown as applications in separate industrial end usesNote that construction dewatering, building services and domestic i.e. residential (shownseparately in general industry) are excluded from the above figures for water/wastewater-total
Market by World Region $ million 2014 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2008-2013 2014-2019
Germany 3092 1.7 6.4Other West Europe 6258 0.2 7.2Russia 1483 10.3 6.2Other East Europe 741 -3.6 6.8Africa 1120 3.4 3.3Middle East 3185 2.4 7.4China 8327 6.5 8.2India 1667 0.4 5.3Japan 2627 -4.8 3.9Pacific Rim 1) 3622 9.2 7.1Other Asia 2) 1474 5.8 5.1USA/Canada 6187 -1.6 7.4Latin America 2400 5.6 6.4Total World Market 42182 2.3 6.9
Market by End Use
Oil, Gas, Refining 9044 3.5 6.3Chemicals 4083 -2.0 6.7Power Generation 3111 3.0 8.1Water/Wastewater (Municipal) 4972 2.7 7.4General Industry 21210 2.6 6.9
All Water/Wastewater $ million 2013 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018
Water/Wastewater-Industrial 3) 9066 2.8 6.9Water/Wastewater-Municipal 4972 2.7 7.4Water/Wastewater-Total 14037 2.8 7.1
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 9
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Sub-division of Pump Market in General Industrycomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
World Market by Pump Typecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
Market by Pump Type $ million 2014 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018
Centrifugal 24034 2.4 7.0Reciprocating 6600 2.4 6.6Rotary 3599 1.1 6.7Other 7949 2.7 6.6Total Pump Market 42182 2.3 6.9
General Industry Sub-Division $ million 2014 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2008-2013 2014-2019
Mining 2916 8.8 3.0Food 1416 4.8 8.1Drink 697 2.9 7.7Pharmaceuticals 440 -1.1 3.1Pulp & Paper 881 1.1 6.8Metal Manufacturing 1368 -2.2 7.7Harbours, docks, canals 114 2.0 7.4Shipbuilding 870 0.5 6.9Building Services 2548 1.5 7.1Construction dewatering 1900 2.0 7.2Other Industry 4679 1.8 7.9Domestic 3382 2.7 7.6General Industry Total 21210 2.6 6.9
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 10
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Cyclical Fluctuations in the Pump Market 2005-2019
Charts showing annual changes in the pump market at current prices,
2010 exchange rates are shown on the following pages:
Page II 11: West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan
Page II 12: Russia, Other East Europe, Middle East/Africa
Page II 13: China, India
Page II 14: Pacific Rim, Latin America
All countries/regions were affected by the recession 2009-2011, with
the advanced industrial countries faring the worst.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 11
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Industrial Countries - Pump Market - Annual Volume % Growth Rates
-10
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5
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15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
WEST EUROPE - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
USA/CANADA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
-20
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-10
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
JAPAN - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 12
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Developing Countries - Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates
-30
-20
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0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
RUSSIA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
-30
-20
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10
20
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
OTHER EAST EUROPE - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
-20
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40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
MIDDLE EAST - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 13
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Developing Countries Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates
0
5
10
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20
25
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35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
CHINA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
-20
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40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
INDIA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 14
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Developing Countries Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
PACIFIC RIM - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
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20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
LATIN AMERICA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 15
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The Relative Growth of Pump Markets in
Industrial and Developing Countries by End Use Industry
The charts on the next five page show the market size for industrial and
developing countries in oil, chemicals, power, water and general industry.
Markets in developing countries expected to grow faster than in industrial
countries, as in the past. However, since the financial crisis of 2008/9 the
out-performance of growth in developing countrie s relative to industrial
countries has been reduced substantially.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 16
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Market for Oil & GasPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
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9000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Oil & Gas - Developing Advanced
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 17
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Market for ChemicalsPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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3500
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Chemicals - Developing Advanced
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 18
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Market for Power GenerationPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Power Generation and the Impact of Renewable Energy on the Market forPumps
One reason for the w idening gap in demand between industrial and developing
countries, shown in the chart below, is the importance of wind and solar energy in
industrial countries. Renewable energy has a m uch lower priority in developing
countries.
Wind energy has m inimal demand for pumps. While solar thermal power does have
large pump requirements, photovoltaic accounts for most additions to solar capacity
and this also has m inimal pump requirements. Over the next five years we have
estimated that the switch to renewable energy for new projects wi ll cut world demand
for pumps in power generation by 40% compared with what it would have been had
conventional thermal or nuclear power plants been adopted..
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Power Generation - Developing Advanced
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 19
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Market for Municipal Water/WastewaterPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
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1500
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3500
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4500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Water - Developing Advanced
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 20
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Market for General IndustryPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
General Industry
The chart below shows market size in industrial and developing countries.
General industry includes mining. Last year we made a major revision to market size for
mining, which now includes all m ining and quarrying activities (rather than just metal
mineral processing which was covered in reports before 2012).
0
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12000
14000
16000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
General Industry - Developing Advanced
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 21
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries
The following pages show the market for complete pumps in each of 63
countries. Countries are grouped into world regions as follows:
Asia - Page II 22
West Europe - Page II 23
East Europe - Page II 24
Africa & Middle East - Page II 25
America - Page II 26
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 22
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Markets in AsiaComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014
Australia 1333 1324 1338 1415 1539 1694 6.7 4.9
China 8327 8909 9596 10381 11330 12367 6.5 8.2
Hong Kong 297 319 343 371 399 432 7.5 7.7
India 1667 1740 1826 1926 2038 2163 0.4 5.3
Indonesia 585 634 682 687 716 751 13.4 5.1
Japan 2627 2580 2711 2869 3024 3184 -4.8 3.9
Korea - South 946 1005 1085 1179 1268 1364 2.6 7.6
Malaysia 313 334 354 377 402 428 14.2 6.4
New Zealand 39 41 44 47 51 55 -0.2 6.8
Pakistan 101 107 114 123 132 142 -1.3 7.0
Philippines 219 237 253 272 293 314 22.3 7.5
Singapore 271 286 307 330 355 383 7.3 7.2
Taiwan 188 192 197 201 206 210 0.8 2.2
Thailand 426 461 502 558 605 657 10.9 9.1
Vietnam 376 402 430 465 517 574 25.1 8.8
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 23
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Markets in West EuropeComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014
Austria 303 319 340 366 396 428 -7.8 7.2Belgium 248 262 280 301 325 351 5.5 7.2Denmark 472 495 528 567 612 660 -0.3 6.9Finland 122 128 136 147 158 170 -5.3 6.9France 954 1004 1074 1154 1246 1344 2.3 7.1Germany 3092 3220 3419 3652 3922 4212 1.7 6.4Greece 59 61 65 69 75 81 -15.8 6.6Ireland 97 99 103 109 116 123 -3.3 5.0Italy 1116 1182 1255 1348 1459 1579 2.2 7.2Netherlands 406 426 448 481 519 560 0.3 6.6Norway 183 192 198 205 214 223 -0.8 4.0Portugal 100 105 115 128 136 146 -5.4 7.8Spain 525 550 587 631 682 737 -1.4 7.0Sweden 452 465 494 530 571 614 1.9 6.3Switzerland 402 413 435 468 507 551 7.5 6.5United Kingdom 819 867 950 1038 1154 1300 -0.2 9.7
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 24
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Markets in East EuropeComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014
Bulgaria 65 68 73 78 83 88 4.2 6.5
Czech Republic 91 97 105 116 128 141 1.7 9.1
Hungary 139 145 154 166 178 192 -4.6 6.7
Poland 328 340 359 385 418 453 -5.2 6.6
Romania 118 123 128 136 146 157 -4.3 5.8
Russia 1483 1524 1613 1723 1855 2001 10.3 6.2
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 25
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Markets in Africa & Middle East
Complete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014
Algeria 256 287 306 317 332 347 3.4 6.2
Bahrein 24 27 29 30 32 34 7.3 6.9
Egypt 176 161 156 158 166 176 -2.5 0.0
Iran 216 229 239 244 249 254 -1.9 3.3
Iraq 346 377 402 418 437 457 35.0 5.7
Israel 144 160 168 175 183 191 19.0 5.8
Kuwait 110 117 125 132 139 148 -0.5 6.1
Libya 114 112 118 126 139 154 2.2 6.2
Morocco 158 166 172 176 182 187 2.7 3.4
Nigeria 223 233 240 242 245 247 10.9 2.1
Oman 124 136 146 154 164 174 -7.5 7.0
Qatar 111 128 149 174 204 251 -14.8 17.7
South Africa 241 221 223 237 256 277 12.1 2.9
Saudi Arabia 893 982 1080 1137 1197 1261 4.0 7.2
Syria 8 8 10 10 11 11 -27.0 7.0
Tunisia 59 63 66 68 72 76 -0.3 5.2
Turkey 344 362 386 418 453 492 1.0 7.4
UAE 760 824 869 945 1030 1128 2.1 8.2
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 26
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Markets in America
Complete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014
Argentina 145 162 171 179 192 207 10.2 7.3
Brazil 1199 1173 1279 1374 1493 1620 4.8 6.2
Canada 1009 1001 1031 1092 1166 1245 3.4 4.3
Chile 173 183 187 201 216 233 10.1 6.1
Colombia 176 197 202 215 231 247 11.1 7.0
Mexico 570 579 619 662 720 788 5.1 6.7
United States 5178 5632 6067 6540 7055 7613 -2.5 8.0
Venezuela 136 144 144 153 165 179 0.5 5.7
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 27
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment
The driving forces behind the world economy are the growth of GDP and
capital investment. Capital investment, which is more relevant to the dem and
for pumps, fluctuates much more than GDP.
These fluctuations are shown in the chart on the next page. We expect a steady
recovery in the growth of GDP and capital investment from 2014 onwards.
World trade volume, shown in the table at the foot of the next page, is
expected to resume its trend rate of growth of around 6% per year from 2015
onwards.
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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Forecast Volume Growth of OECD Exports of Goods & ServicesPercent per year
Annual % Change in the volume of GDP and Capital Investment - Total for World
Source: IMF, OECD, EIF estimates
Source: OECD, EIF estimates
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
% G
row
th
GDP 1.8 2 2.8 4.2 3.6 4.3 4.3 1.7 -1.9 4.3 3 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
Investment 0.4 0.1 4.3 6.1 7.6 7.2 6.7 1.5 -10 8.6 4.7 2.7 2.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.4 4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Export Volume -10.8 12.4 6.3 2.6 2.5 4.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 29
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Forecasts of GDP Growth by Country
GDP growth in Western industrialised countries is expected to be relatively
slow over the forecast period owing to indebtedness, and this will have some
restraining effect on the growth of developing countries.
Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following
pages:
West Europe - Page II 30
East Europe - Page II 31
Africa & Middle East - Page II 32
Asia - Page II 33
America - Page II 34
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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
GDP Growth Rates for West Europe (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Austria 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.5Belgium 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 1.3Denmark 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 -0.7 1.7Finland 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 -1.0 1.6France 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.2 1.8Germany 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.4Greece 0.6 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.7 -5.2 3.2Ireland 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 -0.9 2.5Italy 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 -1.5 1.1Netherlands 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 -0.7 1.8Norway 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.8 2.0Portugal 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 -1.4 1.7Spain 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 -1.4 1.1Sweden 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.3 2.5Switzerland 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 2.0United Kingdom 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.1 2.4
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 31
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GDP Growth Rates for East Europe (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Bulgaria 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.8 -0.4 2.9Czech Republic 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 -0.5 2.3Hungary 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 -1.0 1.7Poland 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.7 3.5Romania 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 -0.4 3.2Russia 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.0 2.5
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 32
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
GDP Growth Rates for Africa/Middle East (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Algeria 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 2.8 4.3Bahrain 4.9 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.5Egypt 2.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.2 4.0Iran 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.0 2.3Iraq -15.0 -14.0 7.0 12.0 18.0 9.0 7.5 5.8Israel 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4Kuwait 2.4 3.3 2.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 0.7 3.5Libya -8.0 30.0 25.4 9.8 9.9 3.5 -6.0 15.3Morocco 3.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.6 4.1 5.3Nigeria 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.7 7.0 6.8Oman 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.7 3.6 4.7 3.6Qatar 5.9 7.1 7.4 7.2 6.6 6.5 10.7 6.9South Africa 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 1.9 3.0Saudi Arabia 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.5 4.2Syria -25.0 -15.0 5.0 15.0 20.0 10.0 -5.5 6.3Tunisia 2.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 2.1 4.5Turkey 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.4United Arab Emirates 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 1.9 4.1
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
GDP Growth Rates for Asia (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Australia 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.9China 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 8.9 6.8Hong Kong 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 2.7 3.9India 5.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.2 6.6Indonesia 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0Japan 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 1.0Republic of Korea 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 3.8Malaysia 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.2 5.0New Zealand 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.4 2.6Pakistan 3.1 3.7 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 3.2 4.5Philippines 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.3 6.2Singapore 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 5.1 3.7Taiwan 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.3 4.3Thailand 2.5 3.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 2.9 4.5Vietnam 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.9
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 34
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GDP Growth Rates for America (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Argentina 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.9 1.7Brazil 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 2.6 3.1Canada 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.3 2.2Chile 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.4Colombia 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.5Mexico 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 1.5 3.7United States 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.2 2.7Venezuela -0.5 -1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 35
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Forecasts for the Growth of Capital Investment
When it comes to forecasting the growth of the pump market, the growth of
capital investment is more relevant than GDP. Consequently, we link our
forecasts for the total market for pumps in each country to our forecasts of
capital investment.
Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following pages:
West Europe - Page II 36
East Europe - Page II 37
Africa & Middle East - Page II 38
Asia - Page II 39
America - Page II 40
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 36
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Capital Investment Growth Rates for West Europe (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Austria 3.9 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 -0.7 2.0
Belgium 5.8 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 -3.5 2.8
Denmark 0.9 1.4 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 -5.5 1.8
Finland -1.6 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 -4.4 1.8
France 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 -2.3 2.5
Germany 5.7 2.9 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 -2.0 1.6
Greece -1.6 13.1 11.0 8.5 7.9 5.5 -16.1 9.2
Ireland 6.1 6.1 3.6 5.2 5.6 6.0 -13.1 5.3
Italy 5.5 2.4 4.1 3.8 3.0 3.6 -6.1 3.4
Netherlands 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 -5.2 3.7
Norway 2.7 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.6 3.6
Portugal 3.6 4.6 3.3 5.9 6.5 5.9 -9.0 5.2
Spain -0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 -10.1 1.5
Sweden 6.7 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.2 -0.6 4.7
Switzerland 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.2 0.2 3.2
United Kingdom 6.5 5.5 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.7 -3.2 5.3
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Capital Investment Growth Rates for East Europe (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Bulgaria 11.6 7.8 8.1 8.2 7.6 7.1 -11.5 7.8
Czech Republic 1.8 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 -5.5 3.1
Hungary 6.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.6 -6.5 4.2
Poland 2.3 6.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 -2.2 5.2
Romania -9.6 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.9 4.5 -6.2 3.9
Russia 1.1 4.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.8 3.7
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 38
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Capital Investment Growth Rates for Middle East/Africa (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Algeria 0.7 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.2 9.6 3.7Bahrain 30.4 1.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 -9.8 3.2Egypt 14.2 -5.3 3.9 5.1 3.6 3.7 -5.8 2.1Iran -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3Iraq -25.0 -15.0 12.0 18.0 22.0 17.0 7.5 9.9Israel 5.1 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.1 2.9 4.8Kuwait 13.4 14.6 8.2 9.5 11.3 10.9 -0.7 10.9Libya 22.5 3.7 6.4 9.0 11.9 3.5 -15.6 6.9Morocco 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.2 5.6 2.2 5.6Nigeria 2.9 7.2 5.4 6.1 6.0 6.0 8.3 6.1Oman 6.3 6.5 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.2 1.0 5.5Qatar 4.1 10.3 11.5 12.9 10.3 10.8 6.7 11.2South Africa 2.7 3.4 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.0 -1.3 4.0Saudi Arabia 6.1 6.4 7.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 6.1 6.7Syria -30.0 -20.0 9.0 17.0 25.0 12.0 -10.1 7.4Tunisia 7.4 8.6 9.5 8.7 7.3 9.3 -0.3 8.7Turkey 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.6 2.8United Arab Emirates 6.1 5.2 4.6 6.2 7.3 6.3 -4.2 5.9
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 39
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Capital Investment Growth Rates for Asia Pacific (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Australia -0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.2 2.2
China 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 10.7 6.0
Hong Kong 3.4 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.4 5.0 3.5
India 5.7 6.7 7.1 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.9
Indonesia 4.5 5.7 5.5 6.5 7.4 5.5 10.0 6.1
Japan 4.3 0.5 -0.6 2.4 2.7 3.5 -1.5 1.7
Republic of Korea 5.0 5.0 3.9 3.3 4.5 4.7 -0.4 4.3
Malaysia 8.5 6.1 5.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 8.6 5.1
New Zealand 8.3 7.1 4.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 -0.5 4.4
Pakistan 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 6.9 -4.8 7.6
Philippines 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 5.4 8.4
Singapore 7.0 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.2 5.6 2.5 5.6
Taiwan 4.0 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 0.2 4.1
Thailand -2.2 1.9 4.3 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.0 3.6
Vietnam 0.3 0.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.6 -1.9 2.5
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 40
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Capital Investment Growth Rates for America (Volume % p.a.)
CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate
Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014
Argentina -2.5 -0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 4.2 0.8
Brazil 0.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.9 0.1 4.1
Canada 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.5
Chile 2.1 3.7 3.4 4.4 4.5 4.1 2.4 4.0
Colombia 5.8 4.5 5.4 5.1 5.7 5.8 4.8 5.3
Mexico 2.3 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.6 -1.4 6.0
United States 4.6 6.2 6.6 5.5 4.3 3.8 -0.8 5.3
Venezuela -4.0 -4.8 0.4 0.7 1.9 1.9 -1.3 0.0
Source: EIF estimates , IMF
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Pump Markets in the World's largest Countries/Regions
In this section we consid er developments in the world's largest countries by
population and land area, which are summarised in the table below.
Some Key Issues affecting the Largest Countries/Regions
West Europe Slow growth in Euro area and danger of deflation
USA Fracking a ‘game changer’ for the US economy
Japan Recovery uncertain despite new monetary policy
Russia Sanctions and falling oil prices present a problem
China Marked slowdown 2013/4 affects Brazil, Australia etc
India Underlying macro problems have adverse effect on pump market
Brazil Short term setback, but good long term prospects
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 42
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Complete Pump Market Trends for West Europe - $ million current prices
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water Power Generation Chemicals Oil & Gas
West Europe
The last historical peak in market size was in 2008, and the market declined,
or was more of less static, 2009-2013. A significant recovery is expected
from 2015 onwards, but it should be remembered that the forecasts include
price inflation of around 2.5% per year.
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Complete Pump Market Trends for USA - $m current prices
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water Power Generation Chemicals Oil & Gas
United States
Over the forecast period the US market is expect ed to grow stro ngly,
particularly when com pared with historical trends. This is because of the
dramatic growth in oil and gas production as a result of fracking. The US will
become an exporter of liquefied natu ral gas. The US chem ical industry is
expected to expand from 2013 onwards, in stark contrast to the last decade
when stagnation or contraction was th e norm, as a resul t of low gas
feedstock prices. The dire ct effects of buoyancy in oil, gas and chemicals
will have positive indirect effects on the rest of the economy.
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Complete Pump Market Trends for Russia$m current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water Power Generation Chemicals Oil & Gas
Russia
There was a strong growth in t he market 2009-13, largely as a result of high
oil prices. Oil prices are expected to weaken in the short term, but to remain
stable from 2015 onwards. This will support continued market growth, but at
a slower rate than in the past.
Note that we are not making allowance for adverse effects of sanctions on the
economy, so our forecast could be optimistic.
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China
The chart below s ummarises the results. The market grew at an incredible
rate 2002-2011 but growth slowed 2012-13. Recovery is expected from
2014, but growth is expected to be slower than over the last ten years.
Complete Pump Market Trends for China $m current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water Power Generation Chemicals Oil & Gas
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 46
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India
India experienced very rapid growth 2003-2009, but the market was static or
declining 2010-2013. We expect a resumption of growth from 2014, but at a
moderate rate. The slowdown in growth is the result of a failure to maintain
the liberal planning policy which was evident 2005-2009, combined with
misguided taxation of foreign inward investment.
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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 47
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Focus on the Pump Market in Japan
Background
Japan is the world’s third largest market and has been subj ect to m ajor
changes in recent years. There has been a long term decline in production in
Japan, partly as a resu lt of the strength of the Yen, combined with the
stagnation of capital investm ent in the domestic economy and with the
expansion of production overseas, notably in China. Prices in Japan have been
in long term decline, a unique feature for an advanced industrial economy.
Pump Production 2008-2013
The table on the next page shows annu al Japanese pump production over the
period 2008-2013. The year 2008 was the last year before the financial crisis,
so that we m ight expect the compound rate of growth 2008-2013 to be
positive, but it proved to be negative. The table shows production value in
yen, in dollars at constant 2010 ex change rates and in dollars at current
exchange rates. Total pump production fell by 4. 28% per year 2008-13 in
national currency (and at constant 2010 exchange rates) and by 3.16% per
year in dollars at current exchange rates. The decline in production was m ost
marked for axial flow pum ps, single stage centrifugal and submersible clean
water pumps. However, production of ‘corrosive material pumps’ (i.e.
chemical process), multistage centrifugal, submersible wastewater pumps and
rotary pumps did not decline.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 48
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
currency Year Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump PumpIndustry Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments
Production Single stage Multistage Axial Household Corrosive Submersible Submersible RotaryCentrifugal Centrifugal Flow Pumps Material Pumps Wastewater Clean Water Pumps
Million Yen 2008 590930 79623 69019 47000 19301 40200 19000 7200 8800Million Yen 2009 552602 76785 55463 45195 11668 35041 18253 6765 7970Million Yen 2010 515389 69615 57557 38492 13036 37965 18349 5394 6882Million Yen 2011 462801 58444 60811 28744 18917 43093 18966 5667 7427Million Yen 2012 477540 64779 67842 24112 15980 41947 18328 5876 10383Million Yen 2013 474871 62114 69773 26021 16200 40639 19031 5657 8634
Million Yen cagr 2008-13 -4.28 -4.8 0.2 -11.1 -3.4 0.2 0.03 -4.71 -0.3
Dollars 2010* 2008 6479.5 873. 756. 515. 211. 440. 208.3 78.9 96.Dollars 2010* 2009 6059.2 841. 608. 495. 127. 384. 200.1 74.2 87.Dollars 2010* 2010 5651.2 763. 631. 422. 142. 416. 201.2 59.1 75.Dollars 2010* 2011 5074.6 640. 666. 315. 207. 472. 208.0 62.1 81.Dollars 2010* 2012 5236.2 710. 743. 264. 175. 459. 201.0 64.4 113.Dollars 2010* 2013 5206.9 681. 765. 285. 177. 445. 208.7 62.0 94.
Dollars 2010* cagr 2008-13 -4.28 -4.8 0.2 -11.1 -3.4 0.2 0.03 -4.71 -0.3
Million Dollars 2008 5491.9 740. 641. 436. 179. 373. 176.6 66.9 81.Million Dollars 2009 5679.4 789. 570. 464. 119. 360. 187.6 69.5 81.Million Dollars 2010 5651.2 763. 631. 422. 142. 416. 201.2 59.1 75.Million Dollars 2011 5582.6 705. 733. 346. 228. 519. 228.8 68.4 89.Million Dollars 2012 5753.5 780. 817. 290. 192. 505. 220.8 70.8 125.Million Dollars 2013 4678.5 612. 687. 256. 159. 400. 187.5 55.7 85.
Million Dollars cagr 2008-13 -3.16 -3.7 1.4 -10.1 -2.3 1.4 1.21 -3.60 0.9
Japanese Pump Production 2008-2013
Source: Meti, EIF estimates
* Million dollars at constant 2010 exchange rates
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 49
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Macro-Economic Prospects for Japan
Stagnation of the economy over the last twenty years has been attributed to
the more or less constant tendency for declining prices, to which reference
has already been made. The new goverment led by Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe was determined to break this trend by a huge expansion of the money
supply. Initially this seemed to work as the Japanese stock m arket surged.
But recently it appears that the policy has not been successful and economic
growth remains stagnant or declining.
The OCED (May 2014) recommends that The Bank of Japan's “quantitative
and qualitative monetary easing” should continue until the inflation target of
2% has been sustainably achieved. Although the OCED assumes inflation
will reach 2% by 2015, economic growth is expected to be no more than 1%
per year, which is certainly not a break with past performance.
The Market by End Use Industry
The Tsunami of March 2011, and cons equent earthquake, has had several
major effects on the st ructure of pump demand. Nuclear power accounted
for 26% of electricity production. Several nuclear power plants were
destroyed and the remainder were sh ut down. Widespr ead opposition for
nuclear power is preventing the reopening of existing plants and the
construction of new nuclear plants. Imports of LNG have surged.
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The government wants to resume the use of nuclear energy with necessary safety
measures. The first nuclear plant is expected to restart in autumn 2014 and 17 others
are expected to follow.
Post-Fukushima, a m ajority of the lost nuclear generation was substituted by
natural gas-fired power plants. The num ber of natural gas-fired power stations is
increasing in Japan, with at least 7 GW of capacity from combined cycle units
expected to come online by 2016.
Wind, solar, and tidal power are being actively pursued in the country and installed
capacity from these sources increased in recent years to over 4 GW in 2011, up from
0.8 GW in 2004. However, these sources cont inue to account for a relatively small
share of generation at this ti me. Most of the growth of renewables in the past year
has occurred in solar energy as a result of heavy investment for large-scale PV units.
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Japanese Orders for Machinery 2006-2014
The table on the next page shows Japane se orders for machinery by end use
industry. Most of the m ain pump-using industries registered a decline in
orders over the period 2008-2013, consistent with the fall in pump production
by product that was considered earlier. Orders for food fell by 1.8% per year,
orders for chemicals fell by 4.4%, refining by 4.3%, metals by 14.2%, and
shipbuilding by 15.3% per year. Non-manufacturing fared better, with
agriculture growing by 4. 1%, mining by 6.4% , construction by 6% and
electricity by 0.2%. In the case of electricity orders fell by 30% in 2012, the
year of the Fukushima disaster, and by a further 4% in 2013. Our forecast for
orders in 2014, however indicates a growth of 31% for electricity.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 52
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Total Manufacturing Food Pulp &Paper
Chemicals Refining Metals Shipbuilding Other Manfg
2006 142554 64086 1220 1282 4905 1727 2850 2658 494442007 137794 61675 1330 779 4463 2280 3226 3012 465852008 134865 55748 1295 594 3703 1344 3856 3578 413782009 103492 32133 1186 407 2832 645 2524 2145 223942010 111899 39070 1119 495 2855 645 2383 2355 292192011 120739 43133 1148 404 3385 712 2549 2145 327912012 113862 40123 1139 485 3469 724 1950 1830 305272013 120170 40415 1181 786 2951 1080 1789 1560 31069Forecast 2014 134215 45823 1065 604 3130 576 2161 2125 36163
cagr 2008-13 -2.3 -6.2 -1.8 5.7 -4.4 -4.3 -14.2 -15.3 -5.6
Total Non-Manufacturing
Agriculture Mining Construction Electricity
2006 78468 4961 250 5160 133032007 76119 4717 356 5564 133872008 79117 4757 200 4732 156572009 71359 4764 137 2940 185112010 72830 4639 191 3483 198482011 77606 4997 246 4293 231302012 73740 5079 269 4861 163662013 79755 5819 273 6335 15822Forecast 2014 88393 5908 281 6345 20733
cagr 2008-13 0.2 4.1 6.4 6 0.2
Source: Japanese Cabinet Office, EIF estimates
Japanese Orders for Machinery
$ million at constant 2010 exchange rates
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 53
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The Pump Market in Brazil
The market in Brazil has been tran sformed by effective macro-economic
policies combined with strong growth of m ineral resources, particularly oil
and gas. But the period 2011-2013 saw a slowdown in growth. A strong
recovery is expected from 2016 onwards, led by the oil and gas sector but
supported by a recovery in demand from mining.
Complete Pump Market Trends for Brazil
$m current prices, 2010 exchange rates
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Pump Export Summary
The detailed tables in Volume II identify imports of pumps into 63 countries
supplied by exports from the EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China. The
table below summarises exports by supplier in 2013.
World Pump Exports in 2013$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates (or CAGR)
Pump SupplierComplete
pumpsPumpParts
TotalExports
Total2013/2007% CAGR
EU (15 countries) 11196 6071 17267 0.8
USA 3581 1353 4934 5.4
Japan 1503 1257 2760 -0.5
China 8479 2673 11153 21.6
Total identified 24759 11354 36114 5.4
Chinese exports grew by 21.6% per year 2007-2013, compared with 0.8%
for the EU (15 countrie s). USA exports grew by 5.4% p.a. and Japanese
by -0.5% p.a. Chinese export growt h is clearly at the expense of export
growth by the major industrial countries.
Parts accounted for 24% of Chinese exports in 2013, compared with 35%
for the EU, 29% for USA and 45% for Japan.
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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
China as a Supplier of Complete Pumps (see Page II 52)
(figures at current prices, 2010 exchange rates)
In 2012 exports of complete pumps by China accounted for 19.5% of the
combined export by EU (15 countrie s), USA, Japan and Chi na, compared
with 18.4% in 2012. In 2003 the Chinese market share was only 3.9%. In the
large pump markets, the Chinese import market share in 2013 was above
average in Vietnam (80%), Indonesia (56%), Japan (50%), India (42%),
USA (42%).
China as a Supplier of Pump Parts ( see Page II 53)
China accounted for 13% of imports of pump parts in 2013, compared with
12.3% in 2012 (3.4% in 2003). Above average import market shares were in
Japan (60%), USA (35%) and Italy (21%).
Significance of China as a Supplier
At present most of the exports by Chin a are probably directly or indirectly
controlled by Western pump manufacturers, either through joint ventures or
as distributors. This can be expected to change in the future as more
independent Chinese pum p manufacturers develop export markets. Even
today, however, the significance of China as a pump exporter is under-
represented in volume terms by the fi gures quoted above, which relate to
percent shares of dollar values. This is because Chinese export prices are
probably only 50% of Western prices for similar products.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 56
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ALLSUPPLIERS
2013$ MILLION
CHINA2013
$ MILLION
CHINA2011
PERCENTSHARE
CHINA2012
PERCENTSHARE
CHINA2013
PERCENTSHARE
Syria 10.3 8.4 42.1 54.2 82.1Vietnam 283.4 228.1 62.9 61.4 80.5Pakistan 76.4 50.7 66.7 59.4 66.4Iran 195.5 118.8 28.6 43.9 60.8Nigeria 159.7 96.3 53.6 54 60.3Indonesia 441.4 247.7 64 65.1 56.1Hong Kong 219.1 110.7 47 48.3 50.5Japan 296.9 147.9 52.4 52 49.8United States 1595.1 677.3 44.4 41.8 42.5India 398.6 168.9 34.2 40.6 42.4Malaysia 229.7 89 36.1 32.1 38.7Thailand 320 120.8 40 38.7 37.8Iraq 241.1 74.8 36 32.7 31Brazil 349.5 96.4 26.9 28.4 27.6Taiwan 144.9 39.7 26.7 25.3 27.4UAE 530.8 142.9 18.4 17.9 26.9Philippines 165.5 41.1 33.6 30.6 24.8Libya 97.3 22.7 29.6 29.5 23.3Australia 310.6 70.1 23.9 21.3 22.6Egypt 169.2 36.7 15.1 17.7 21.7Argentina 104.5 22.1 22.1 17.9 21.2Venezuela 103 21.8 29.6 27.8 21.1Turkey 451.7 93.2 16.7 20.5 20.6WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 20220.9 3940.1 18.2 18.4 19.5New Zealand 31 6.1 15.9 16.6 19.5South Africa 179.9 34.5 14.8 19.6 19.2Mexico 480.8 90.8 14.8 16.1 18.9Russia 1069.6 199.3 17.7 17 18.6Romania 87.5 15.5 14.5 15.7 17.7Algeria 177.1 29.5 11.6 19.5 16.6Finland 137.4 22.1 16.1 16.2 16.1Greece 49.4 7.4 8.6 11.1 15.1Italy 521.9 78.2 14.5 14.4 15Poland 343.4 50.6 12.4 12.5 14.7Chile 132 18.8 14.1 13.6 14.2Germany 1183.6 149.2 13.2 11.2 12.6Singapore 466.3 55.3 15.8 12.8 11.9Colombia 127.7 14 11.2 13.3 11Morocco 122.9 13.4 12.2 12.3 10.9United Kingdom 588.4 59.6 10.9 10.3 10.1Korea - South 837.4 79.5 13.8 12.1 9.5Portugal 73.3 6.8 6.1 9 9.3Tunisia 43.8 4 6 10.5 9.2Israel 104.3 9.5 7 5.4 9.1Spain 295 25.1 6.7 7 8.5Czech Republic 135.3 10.8 5.6 6 8Belgium 326.3 22.4 6.2 5.5 6.9Netherlands 423.2 28 8.3 7.4 6.6Kuwait 79.3 5 3.5 3.2 6.3Bulgaria 44.9 2.8 6.8 10.8 6.2Denmark 172.1 9.8 5.5 6.4 5.7France 854.5 47.2 5.3 5.5 5.5Canada 1018.2 55.4 5.4 5 5.4Saudi Arabia 651.2 32.9 8.6 5.2 5.1Oman 88.8 4.4 10.6 7.1 4.9Sweden 220.9 9.1 4.3 4.5 4.1Hungary 106 4.4 4.2 3.7 4.1Bahrein 16.9 0.7 2.4 3.9 3.9Austria 205.3 6.2 4.1 4.2 3Ireland 68.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.3Qatar 101 1.3 2.2 2.8 1.3Switzerland 234.5 1.8 0.6 1.2 0.8Norway 179.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4
Imports of Complete Pumps, Ranked by China's share in 2013
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 57
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ALLSUPPLIERS
2013$ MILLION
CHINA2013
$ MILLION
CHINA2011
PERCENTSHARE
CHINA2012
PERCENTSHARE
CHINA2013
PERCENTSHARE
Japan 168.4 100.4 53.8 56.6 59.6Iran 26.4 12.9 16.7 30.9 49Indonesia 97.4 47.1 43.2 51.1 48.4Syria 1.3 0.6 31.4 39 46Hong Kong 57.6 23.8 31.4 32.3 41.3United States 1401 497.5 33.3 34.3 35.5Vietnam 22.8 6.6 21.8 16.5 28.7Russia 223.6 56.8 24.3 23.1 25.4Malaysia 61.3 14.5 7.4 15.5 23.6Italy 274.4 59.5 17.7 20.5 21.7Argentina 44.7 7.6 16.5 18.5 17.1Taiwan 100.8 16 24.7 17.8 15.8Ireland 32.9 5.2 15 16.6 15.7Finland 60.9 9.4 11.8 17 15.5Korea - South 261.9 40.3 8.3 14.1 15.4India 169.8 25.8 10.3 10.5 15.2Denmark 93 13.7 15.6 15.1 14.7Pakistan 19.4 2.7 17 30.1 14.2Spain 177.6 23.7 7.3 12.9 13.3WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 9979.6 1299.4 10.7 12.3 13Australia 154.3 20 15.2 15.2 13Iraq 58.7 7.3 5.9 6.2 12.4Singapore 188.3 19.4 7.4 8.7 10.3Philippines 34 3 11.5 8.5 8.8Canada 590.5 51.7 7.1 7.7 8.8Germany 646 54.6 6.6 7.8 8.4South Africa 106.4 8.9 8.4 9.2 8.3Mexico 218.9 17.8 4.8 8.1 8.1United Kingdom 279.6 21.4 5.1 5.4 7.7UAE 148.4 10.5 7.5 7.5 7.1Sweden 97.8 6.8 4.3 5.7 7Colombia 43.3 2.9 5.3 9.1 6.8Israel 26.8 1.8 2.5 2.7 6.7Netherlands 259.9 15.8 4.4 6.4 6.1Brazil 153.7 9.2 6.2 6.6 6Egypt 65.3 3.6 4 5.9 5.6Chile 62.2 3.4 4.3 5.7 5.5Libya 33 1.8 5.2 5.1 5.4Saudi Arabia 206.9 10.5 6.6 6.9 5.1Thailand 223.6 11.2 2.1 3.4 5Nigeria 33.2 1.6 2.5 2.8 4.8Hungary 210.2 9.5 3.6 4.1 4.5Belgium 130.3 5.4 3.5 5.1 4.2Turkey 149.2 6.2 2.9 3.8 4.1New Zealand 12.9 0.5 6.2 4.8 3.9Kuwait 27.3 1 1.9 3.4 3.7Poland 134.3 4.8 2.4 2.7 3.6Austria 125.3 4 3.7 6.3 3.2Venezuela 124.8 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.7Greece 22 0.6 1 1.5 2.6France 408 10.7 2.2 2.6 2.6Algeria 55 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.6Oman 33 0.6 5.7 3.9 2Morocco 42.8 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.3Tunisia 13.9 0.2 1.6 0 1.1Romania 60.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1Portugal 31.7 0.4 0.6 0 1.1Switzerland 96.4 1 0.9 1.3 1Qatar 45.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.8Bahrein 19.1 0.1 0.6 0 0.4
Imports of Pump Parts, Ranked by China's share in 2013
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 58
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Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts
There are many uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. The following notes
attempt to place these into perspective. There are four main issues:
a) Data problems affecting historical measurement of market size
b) Macro-economic issues
c) Issues affecting specific industries
d) Issues affecting particular countries
Data Problems
Analysis of the pump market depends to a large extent on the proper
measurement of trends and cycles of fixed investment by end use industry.
Detailed notes on our methodology are given in the Appendix. The main
difficulty we have is that historical investment data based on government
statistics (the most reliable source) is usually two years out of date, and is
also subject to large revisions. The la st complete data relates to the year
2013. Figures on fixed investment by end use industry for the year 2013 are
our estimates, while for 2014 onward s the figures are our forecasts. We
bridge the gap by detailed analysis of investment in major projects, but there
are difficulties here arising from the time-phasing of each project.
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Macro-Economic Issues
The main uncertainty is whether the recovery from recession will be
sustained. Very recent trends (October 2014) are not encouraging, but it is
too soon to draw firm conclusions. The Japanese monetary policy
experiment does not appear to be leading to sustained growth. There is a
major issue concerning price deflation in the Euro area, which will require
very positive action by the ECB (which may not be supported by
Germany). Deflation would result in ever-mounting debt and a probable
collapse of the Euro currency. The slowdown of growth in China
compounds the problem of slow growth in the West.
Issues Affecting Specific Industries
Although oil prices have faltered in recent months, we expect stability over
the next five years, rather than the dramatic collapse forecast by some
commentators. Capital investment by the world-wide mining industry is
still falling and is not likely torecover before year 2017.
The enormous success of fracking in the US, and the consequent expansion
of investment in petr ochemicals, will have a very negative effect on
petrochemicals investment in West Europe.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 60
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Issues Affecting Particular Countries
China
The future annual time path of the Chinese pump market (and the Chinese
economy as a whole) is one of the most uncertain features of the forecast. It
is clear that investment growth in China has been excessive in the last ten
years (averaging over 20% a year, co mpared with under 10% a year for
GDP) - this divergence in growth ra tes cannot persist forever. Moreover,
we doubt the credibility of official Chinese government statistics on capital
investment. A slowdown in Chinese GDP growth is now evident. But the
expected switch in the composition of demand away from investment and
exports in favour of consumer spending is not yet apparent.
Japan
Prospects for pump market growth in Japan are still subject to considerable
uncertainty because macro-economic prospects are difficult to predict. A
continuation of deflation is probable, with attendant econom ic stagnation.
As a result, markets for pumps in power generation and other infrastructure
will be depressed, as over the last decade. There is particular uncertainty
over future investment in nuclear power.
The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 61
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The World Pump Market and the Top 25 Pump Companies
The top 25 pum p companies account for ar ound 65% of the world pump market. The
world pump market identified in this re port amounted to $35.5 billion in 2010, but this
excludes parts and accessories, installation and afterm arket services included in pum p
company sales, which amount to a further $5 billion, making a total of over $40 billion.
This is on a narrow definition of the pump market. A wider definition, which included the
value of pum p installation and afterm arket services carried out by plant owners and
contractors, would increase market size to $53 billion in 2010.
It is sometimes difficult to disentangle pump sales from total sales of companies who
supply more than pumps. Our estimates are shown below.
EIF Estimates of Pump Sales of the Top 25 Pump Companies $ million, current prices (includes acquisitions and currency changes)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.2014ALFA LAVAL 158 180 223 216 240 797COLFAX 419 433 553 599 621 639DOVER CORPORATION 291 256 305 368 406 425EBARA 1721 1716 1828 1802 1600 1724FLOWSERVE 2708 2389 2581 2708 2792 2809FMC TECHNOLOGIES 103 114 157 192 217 243GARDNER-DENVER 604 636 892 850 594 600GE OIL & GAS 100 100 900 950 1100 1650GRUNDFOS 3182 3487 3941 3840 3987 4126HMS GROUP 191 339 511 526 531 569IDEX 641 731 817 833 872 854ITT INDUSTRIAL PROCESS 719 694 767 956 1107 1190KSB PUMP 1813 1768 1959 1875 1949 1813KUBOTA 509 492 560 616 557 638LUFKIN 188 254 404 506 597 685NATIONAL OILWELL VARCO 391 408 745 1198 1293 1337PENTAIR 924 1021 1140 1320 1346 1251ROPER INDUSTRIES 422 486 590 636 623 660SPIRAX SARCO 131 159 192 199 206 215SPX FLOW TECHNOLOGY 980 997 1225 1609 1583 1567SULZER 1706 1511 1894 2149 2128 2168TOROSHIMA PUMP 480 568 560 554 453 483WEIR GROUP 1708 2022 2969 3249 3068 3219WILO 1290 1359 1489 1467 1571 1660XYLEM 2849 3202 3803 3791 3837 3940TOTAL IDENTIFIED 24228 25322 31005 33009 33278 35262
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 1
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE
Introduction
The pump market by product type is conventionally analysed by a technical
classification which distinguishes product groups, such as c entrifugal,
reciprocating or rotary, and by sub-divisions within these groups. These are the
classifications provided by official government statistics and are the subject of
this section.
The technical classification, while useful and also relevant to production
economics, does not provide insight in to the pump market by end use. This is
because a pump described with a technical classification can be used in end use
industries with markedly different economic prospects. For example,
submersible pumps are used mainly by the water and sewerage industry and in
construction dewatering, end uses which can have markedly different trends.
An alternative approach to pum p market segmentation by product type is to
consider pump demand by application within each end use industry, which is
the subject of Section IV. This alternative approach has more bearing on pump
marketing than the technical classification. Within the pump industry the terms
'standard', 'engineered' and 'special purpose' pumps are commonly used, but
have no basis in official governm ent statistics. Section IV shows how these
terms can be related to pump demand by end use industry.
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 2
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region
and Product Type
The market forecasts provided in this report relate to complete pumps,
including prime movers, excluding parts. The valuation is at ex-factory cost,
so that costs of pump installation are excluded.
The chart on the next page sum marises the forecasts by product type.
Centrifugal pumps are, of course, the largest pump type, followed by
reciprocating and rotary.
The choice of pump type depends on the pump application, which in turn
depends on the end use industry, but most pump types are used in most end
use industries. Consequent ly, growth rates for the different pump types are
fairly similar at the broad level of aggregation shown in the chart . There are
trends involving some substitution between pump types in certain
applications and also within pump types in the same application. Examples
within centrifugal are subm ersible versus end suction pumps, and within
rotary peristaltic versus other rotary pumps. Technological change als o
affects demand by pump type by changing pump applications: environmental
investment being a good example.
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 3
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Method of Estimating the Market by Product Type
For the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA and Japan the
historical sub-division by pump type is based on the composition of production
and imports. For developing countries the sub-division is based on the
composition of imports alone. This appr oach allows som e further historical
sub-division of centrifugal, reciprocating and rotary pump markets. The
forecasts are based on the projected market by end use, coupled with a rough
allocation of the demand by pump type across different end uses.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Centrifugal Reciprocating Rotary Domestic/other
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 4
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The Market for Pump Parts
We do not include parts in the market forecasts because factors governing the
aftermarket are complex and forecasts require quite different methods
compared with forecasts for complete pumps.
The data on pump parts for the major industrial countries, in particular,
should be treated with caution. This is because largely complete pumps may
be imported, although they may be classified as parts.
The table on the next page shows im ports of pump parts in 2013 ranked by
country within each world region, to gether with t he compound average
annual percentage growth rate (CAGR) 2013/2010.
In many cases the recession in 2009 resulted in declines in the m arket
average 2008-11, particularly in West Europe and the USA. We might expect
the parts market to be more stable than the market for complete pumps in a
recession, but this was not the case
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 5
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Imports of Pump Parts - Ranking by 63 Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR %
$ million2013
CAGR%2010-13
$ million2013
CAGR%2010-13
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST cont
Germany 686 1.5 Oman 36 1.2France 436 1.7 Nigeria 36 4.1United Kingdom 298 -2 Libya 35 -2.9Italy 292 -1.5 Kuwait 29 2.1Netherlands 276 4.4 Israel 29 1.9Spain 190 0.5 Iran 28 -26.8Belgium 139 -1 Bahrein 21 -2.5Austria 134 1.7 Tunisia 15 -14.8Norway 114 13.6 Syria 1 -52.3Sweden 105 0.1Switzerland 103 7.7Denmark 99 8.5 ASIAFinland 65 0.6Ireland 35 2.5 China 668 0.5Portugal 34 -0.9 Korea - South 275 9.6Greece 23 -13.4 Thailand 226 13
Singapore 200 2.8EAST EUROPE India 179 -3.7
Japan 178 -13.1Czech Republic 563 17.1 Australia 165 6.1Russia 238 27.3 Taiwan 107 7.6Hungary 220 8.6 Indonesia 102 25.2Poland 144 6.9 Malaysia 65 16Romania 65 -7.6 Hong Kong 61 12.6Bulgaria 43 9.5 Philippines 36 8.8
Vietnam 24 23.1AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 21 -4.4
New Zealand 14 11.4Saudi Arabia 220 8.2Turkey 159 11.1UAE 158 10.8 AMERICASouth Africa 114 16.8Egypt 70 -5 United States 1466 14.9Iraq 62 38.9 Canada 642 0Algeria 59 4.8 Mexico 235 -12Qatar 48 5.3 Brazil 164 -2Morocco 46 23.9 Venezuela 136 18.4
Chile 67 2.4Argentina 48 5.3
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 6
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Complete Pumps by Product Type
The proportion of pum ps used in the different end use industries largely
determines the variation in dem and for pumps of different types. This is
because we do not believe that there is signif icant substitution between
different pump types (at the level of detail presented in this report), within a
particular end use. There are, however, major variations in the types of
pump used in the different end use industries, and demand trends can differ
significantly between industries. Moreover, the relative importance of
different industries varies markedly from country to country. Consequently,
the extent of sub-division of demand between different end uses is an
important part of market analysis, and this is discussed in detail in Section
IV.
Estimation Methods for the Pump Market by Product Type
We estimate the market by product type in each country by considering the
share of each product type in production and im ports. This does not tell us
the product market size by end use in dustry, so we estimate this by
simulation, given our historical data and forecasts by end use (discussed in
Section IV), combined with the product composition of production and
imports. Full details of the cross-classification by country, end use industry
and product type are provided in a suppl ementary Excel file (available, at
extra cost, to purchasers of the full World Pump Market Report).
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 7
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Centrifugal Pumps
The market for centrifugal pumps totals around $25bn. These pumps are used
by all industries; Page III 8 shows that oil, gas, chemicals and power together
account for around 40% of the total.
The table on Page III 9 ra nks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced i ndustrial countries of West Europe,
USA, Canada, Japan, plus China, India, South Korea, Mexico and Russia.
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 8
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Centrifugal Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
West Europe East Europe Middle East/Africa Asia/Pacific America
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 9
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcontinued
Germany 2069 6.3 South Africa 87 3.0France 843 7.1 Kuwait 74 6.2United Kingdom 635 9.9 Libya 73 6.5Italy 481 7.3 Israel 73 5.8Denmark 449 7.0 Morocco 52 3.3Spain 305 6.9 Oman 37 6.5Sweden 281 6.4 Tunisia 20 5.4Switzerland 224 6.5 Bahrein 19 7.1Netherlands 219 6.6 Syria 4 4.0Belgium 179 7.1Austria 161 7.1Norway 103 4.2 ASIAFinland 88 6.8Ireland 66 4.9 China 5170 8.4Portugal 41 7.8 Japan 1214 4.3Greece 26 6.1 India 967 5.7
Australia 533 3.6EAST EUROPE Korea - South 520 7.2
Indonesia 297 5.2Russia 1168 6.4 Thailand 228 8.9Poland 197 6.5 Malaysia 162 6.6Hungary 105 6.7 Vietnam 155 8.7Czech Republic 72 9.2 Singapore 136 6.8Romania 62 5.8 Philippines 129 7.3Bulgaria 56 6.8 Taiwan 103 2.4
Pakistan 66 6.6AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 53 7.2
New Zealand 16 6.8Saudi Arabia 693 7.2UAE 392 9.2Turkey 219 7.5 AMERICANigeria 163 2.0Iraq 161 5.7 United States 2688 7.9Iran 153 3.6 Canada 488 4.7Algeria 113 6.4 Brazil 285 5.9Qatar 93 18.1 Mexico 199 6.4Egypt 92 -0.3 Chile 85 6.1
Colombia 73 6.5Venezuela 64 4.1Argentina 56 7.1
Centrifugal Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries
$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 10
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Further Sub-division of Centrifugal Pumps
The table below provides some further sub-division of the centrifugal pump
market. The forecasts assume that the end use com position of dem and by
product type is unchanged from the level in 2013. The growth therefore
depends on the forecasts by end use.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
Centrifugal - Submersible Motor 3999 4170 4454 4783 5160 5570 2.8 6.9
Centrifugal - Single stage, single entry -close coupled
2451 2615 2791 2984 3204 3436 0 7
Centrifugal - Single stage, single entry -long coupled
2951 3106 3319 3567 3859 4188 2.7 7.3
Centrifugal - Single stage, double suction 786 835 867 927 998 1081 5.7 6.6
Centrifugal - Multistage (exc. submersible& axial/mixed flow)
4858 5147 5474 5847 6279 6776 2.9 6.9
Centrifugal - Other 8997 9428 10119 10883 11767 12728 2.3 7.2
Centrifugal Pumps 24035 25293 27021 28985 31260 33773 2.4 7
World Centrifugal Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 11
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Reciprocating Pumps
The market for reciprocating pumps amounts to around $6 billion. Page III
12 shows that 67% of dem and arises in West Europe, USA/Canada and
Japan (about the same percent as centrifugal). Oil and ga s, chemicals, and
pulp and paper account for 43% of total demand.
The table on Page III 13 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are USA, China, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Canada.
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 12
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Reciprocating Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
West Europe East Europe Middle East/Africa Asia/Pacific America
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 13
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont
Germany 258 5.7 Turkey 19 8.3United Kingdom 62 9.0 Israel 17 6.5Italy 61 2.5 Libya 13 7.0Netherlands 46 5.0 Qatar 12 18.9France 42 6.2 Tunisia 9 7.2Norway 32 1.8 Kuwait 6 7.5Sweden 27 6.0 Bahrein 4 5.8Austria 22 6.9 Morocco 2 3.5Switzerland 18 6.7Spain 14 5.1Belgium 14 6.8Portugal 8 7.7 ASIADenmark 7 6.7Ireland 6 6.6 China 853 5.8Greece 2 5.5 Australia 427 8.3Finland 1 6.3 India 207 4.6
Japan 183 2.7EAST EUROPE Korea - South 130 7.6
Indonesia 124 4.1Russia 144 5.8 Vietnam 115 9.6Poland 24 6.3 Malaysia 111 5.8Hungary 16 6.7 Thailand 95 10.1Romania 9 6.1 Singapore 86 7.4Czech Republic 6 8.8 Philippines 55 8.0Bulgaria 2 4.0 Taiwan 50 2.3
Hong Kong 25 7.4AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 15 7.5
New Zealand 4 7.8UAE 172 8.6Iraq 150 5.6Algeria 89 6.3 AMERICASaudi Arabia 78 6.9South Africa 70 2.1 United States 1345 8.2Oman 67 7.3 Brazil 403 6.8Nigeria 31 1.0 Canada 336 3.4Iran 26 4.1 Mexico 219 7.2Egypt 20 -0.2 Colombia 80 7.6
Venezuela 61 7.5Argentina 49 7.9Chile 22 7.3
Reciprocating Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries
$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 14
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Further Sub-division of Reciprocating Pumps
The table shows sim ilar growth rate s for piston and other reciprocating
pumps.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR%
CAGR%
2008-13 2014-19
Reciprocating - Piston/Plunger 1980 2126 2222 2361 2534 2733 0.5 6.7
Reciprocating - Other 4623 4840 5113 5464 5892 6372 3.2 6.6
Reciprocating Pumps 6601 6966 7335 7825 8426 9105 2.4 6.6
World Reciprocating Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Complete pumps, inc. prime movers, exc. parts
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 15
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Rotary Pumps
The world market for rotary pumps amounts to around $3 billion, with the
advanced industrial countries (West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan)
accounting for 69% of the total.
Page III 16 shows that oil and gas, chemicals, pulp and paper and power
generation account for 39% of total demand.
The table on Page III 17 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe,
USA, Canada and Japan, plus China, Brazil and India.
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 16
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Rotary Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
West Europe East Europe Middle East/Africa Asia/Pacific America
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 17
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcontinued
Germany 427 6.4 Egypt 4 0.0United Kingdom 101 8.8 Oman 2 9.5Italy 99 5.9 Morocco 2 2.1France 63 7.1 Libya 2 10.0Switzerland 61 4.7 Kuwait 2 12.0Spain 35 6.5 Algeria 2 7.2Sweden 33 5.9 Qatar 1 15.9Netherlands 32 6.1Austria 31 7.0Norway 30 3.9Belgium 16 7.0Denmark 13 5.2 ASIAIreland 6 2.0Finland 4 7.0 China 578 8.1Portugal 2 3.7 Japan 283 3.7Greece 2 3.7 India 159 5.3
Korea - South 78 8.4EAST EUROPE Australia 59 4.8
Singapore 23 7.9Russia 107 5.4 Indonesia 19 5.7Poland 15 7.0 Malaysia 16 7.4Romania 12 5.8 Taiwan 13 2.6Hungary 9 6.6 Vietnam 12 8.9Czech Republic 8 8.4 Thailand 12 10.0Bulgaria 1 6.6 Hong Kong 9 8.8
Philippines 8 9.1AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 3 10.5
New Zealand 2 6.2UAE 29 8.1South Africa 23 3.1Saudi Arabia 18 7.2 AMERICATurkey 11 7.8Iraq 11 5.5 United States 700 7.9Tunisia 10 6.2 Brazil 152 6.5Nigeria 5 1.1 Canada 116 4.6Israel 5 6.7 Mexico 76 6.3Iran 5 2.2 Argentina 15 7.2
Colombia 11 6.8Chile 11 6.3Venezuela 6 5.4
Rotary Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries
$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 18
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Further Sub-division of Rotary Pumps
The sub-division shown in the table below is less reliable than for centrifugal
and reciprocating pumps. This is mainly because US and Japanese production
data does not sub-divide the rotary market with the West European
classification system which we use for the sub-division.
Rotary-other contains several major pump types. Progressing cavity pum ps
are believed to account for around 60%.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%
2008-13 2014-19
Rotary - Gear 863 914 969 1033 1110 1193 1 6.7
Rotary - Vane 673 704 751 805 867 934 0.4 6.8
Rotary - Screw 845 890 948 1016 1091 1172 2 6.8
Rotary - Other 1221 1277 1359 1455 1564 1685 0.9 6.6
Rotary Pumps 3601 3782 4026 4309 4631 4984 1.1 6.7
World Rotary Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 19
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Residential Buildings & Other Pumps
Total market size is around $8 billion, with most of demand being located in
the advanced industrial countries.
The table on Page III 20 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe,
USA, Canada, and Japan, plus China, Australia, South Korea, India, Mexico
and Brazil
.
The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 20
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
2014$M
CAGR%2014-2019
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont
Italy 476 7.9 Kuwait 29 5.2Germany 337 7.2 Libya 25 4.5Spain 171 7.5 Nigeria 24 3.8Sweden 112 6.4 Iraq 24 7.3Netherlands 110 7.5 Tunisia 20 3.5Switzerland 98 7.5 Oman 17 6.4Austria 88 7.5 Qatar 6 8.0Portugal 50 8.1 Syria 4 10.1Belgium 39 7.7 Bahrein 2 5.6Greece 30 7.4Finland 28 7.3United Kingdom 21 7.8 ASIAIreland 19 5.9Norway 18 6.7 China 1725 8.8France 6 8.3 Japan 948 3.7Denmark 3 7.6 India 335 4.9
Australia 315 2.0EAST EUROPE Korea - South 218 8.1
Hong Kong 211 7.8Poland 91 6.9 Indonesia 145 5.9Russia 63 4.1 Vietnam 93 8.3Romania 35 5.7 Thailand 91 8.3Hungary 10 6.6 Philippines 27 7.1Czech Republic 5 9.2 Singapore 26 7.4Bulgaria 5 5.0 Malaysia 25 7.2
Taiwan 23 0.9AFRICA/MID. EAST New Zealand 18 6.5
Pakistan 17 7.4UAE 167 5.4Saudi Arabia 104 6.8Morocco 102 3.5 AMERICATurkey 94 7.0South Africa 61 3.6 United States 445 8.1Egypt 61 0.4 Brazil 360 5.6Algeria 52 5.8 Mexico 75 6.3Israel 49 5.4 Canada 68 5.0Iran 32 1.8 Chile 55 5.7
Argentina 25 7.0Colombia 13 5.9Venezuela 5 2.3
Residential Buildings & Other Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries
$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 1
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY
Introduction
This section of the report discusses the pump market by end use industry.
Analysis by end use is more relevant to marketing than the anal ysis by
product which was discussed in Section III. However, it should be borne in
mind that the end use analysis is less reliable statistically because
information on pump usage by end use is limited.
Nevertheless, differences between countries in both market size and market
growth by end use are often so large that the statistical problem of
measurement is of secondary importance. The difference between the
advanced industrial countries and developing countries is a good example. In
the advanced countries market size and growth reflects maturity and a largely
replacement market (except perhaps for the effect of environmental
legislation). In the developing countries the in stalled base is sm all, so
replacement demand is limited and market growth rates (unless constrained
by poverty) can be expected to be higher than in the industrial countries.
Another factor is that market size and growth by end use are strongly
influenced by resource endowment in certain countries, particularly for oil &
gas, chemicals, pulp & paper, and mining.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 2
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Summary of Pump Market Size by End Use Industry
The table on the next page summarises results for eac h of the end use
industries identified in the report.
World market growth averages 6.9% p.a. 2014-2019, compared with 2.3%
2008-2013. The underlying trend growth is around 6% per year. The last
five years saw below trend growth ow ing to the financia l crisis, but the
importance of this factor is progressively reduced over the next five years.
Over the historical period 2008-13 gr owth rates by end use varied from
8.8% for mining to -2.7% for other ch emicals. The forecast sees nuclear
power with a growth of 12.7% and coal power generation with growth of
only 2.7%.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 3
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The World Pump Market by End Use Industry **
Complete pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts
$ million in 2014 (at current prices, 2010 exchange rates) or CAGR %
Valuation is at ex-factory cost
** sum of 63 countries * excludes offshore Africa and Caspian Sea + includes liquefied natural gas
$ million 2014 CAGR2013-18%
CAGR2014-19%
Oil & Gas-Onshore+ 3972 3.4 6Oil & Gas-Offshore* 2549 4.5 9.4Oil Refining 2286 2.6 2.9Basic Chemicals 2615 -2.4 6.3Other Chemicals 1232 -2.7 7Biofuels 236 9.8 9.5Coal/Oil Power Gen 1088 1.5 2.7Gas/Cogen Power Gen 788 2.5 8.9Hydro Power Gen 405 4.8 9.3Nuclear Power Gen 829 5.2 12.7Pulp & Paper 881 1.1 6.8Mining 2916 8.8 3Metal Manfacture 1368 -2.2 7.7Food 1416 4.8 8.1Drink 697 2.9 7.7Pharmaceuticals 440 -1.1 3.1Marine 870 0.5 6.9Harbours/docks/canal 114 2 7.4Other Industry 4679 1.8 7.9Water/Wastewater - All Industry (included above) 9066 2.8 6.9
Water/Wastewater - Municipal 4972 2.7 7.4Water/Wastewater - Total Industry/Municipal 14037 2.8 7.1Industrial Building 2548 1.5 7.1Residential Building 3382 2.7 7.6Construction Dewatering 1900 2 7.2
Total 42182 2.3 6.9
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 4
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry
The approach involves breaking dow n estimates of the pum p market in
different end uses into a pplications within each end use according to the
characteristics of the pu mps required. These applications can be grouped
together to show m arket sizes for engineered, standard and special purpose
pumps, which we summarise at the beginning of this section. Later parts of
this section show market sizes by e nd use and for appli cations within each
end use.
The following table lists the end uses and applications identified in the
report.
Characteristics of the Identified Applications
The table column headed ‘range’ provid es a broad classification into three
categories which are mainly determined by the application and pump
technology. These are:
ENG Engineered Pumps
STD Standard Pumps
SPE Special Purpose Pumps
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 5
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION MAIN OIL LINE & TRANSFER PUMPS ENG A C A
(SEPARATELY FOR ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE) METERING/ DOSING SPE C C C
FIRE PUMPS ENG A C A
INJECTION PUMPS ENG A C A
SEA WATER LIFT PUMPS ENG A C A
GAS SCRUBBING SPE B C B
LNG/NGL PUMPS SPE B C B
EFFLUENT TREATMENT PUMP SPE B C B
UTILITY STD C C B
CHEMICALS-BASIC METERING/ DOSING SPE C B C
CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B B A
CLEAR LIQUIDS STD C B C
SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C B C
UTILITY STD C B C
CHEMICALS-DOWNSTREAM CHEMICAL DOSING SPE C A C
CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B A B
CLEAR LIQUIDS STD C A C
METERING SPE C A C
SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C A C
UTILITY STD C A C
OIL REFINING REFINERY PROCESS ENG B C A
WATER CIRCULATING STD C C B
BOILER FEED & BOOSTER STD B C B
SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C
LPG PUMPS SPE B C B
UTILITY STD C C C
POWER-COAL/OIL COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-100% DUTY ENG A C A
COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-50% DUTY ENG A C A
COAL/OIL-COOLING WATER ENG A C A
COAL/OIL-BOOSTER ENG A C A
COAL/OIL-HEATER DRAINS ENG B C B
COAL/OIL-CONDENSATE RECOVERY ENG B C B
COAL/OIL-LUBE OIL SYSTEM ENG B C B
COAL/OIL-BOILER CIRCULATION ENG B C B
COAL/OIL-ASH/FGD PUMPS ENG A C A
COAL/OIL-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C C
Characteristics of Identified Applications
ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 6
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT
POWER-COMBINED CYCLE GAS GAS-FEED WATER ENG A C A
GAS-CIRCULATION ENG A C A
GAS-COOLING WATER ENG A C A
GAS-CIRCULATORS STD B C B
GAS-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C A
POWER-HYDROELECTRIC HYDRO-MAIN PUMPS STD B C B
HYDRO-OTHER PUMPS STD C C C
POWER-NUCLEAR NUCLEAR-PRIMARY COOLANT ENG A C A
NUCLEAR-COOLING WATER ENG A C A
NUCLEAR-REACTOR BOILER FEED ENG A C A
NUCLEAR-SAFEGUARD & ASSOCIATED SPE C C A
NUCLEAR-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C A
PULP & PAPER CHEMICAL DOSING SPE C C C
LIQUOR STD B C B
PULP & PAPER STOCK ENG A C A
CONDENSATE STD B C B
FAN STD A C A
WOOD CHIP STD B C B
SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C
UTILITY STD C C C
METAL MANUFACTURE DESCALING/MILL SCALE/FLUSHING STD B C B
CIRCULATING WATER STD B C B
WATER TREATMENT STD C C C
SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C
UTILITY STD C C C
Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued
ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 7
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT
FOOD HYGIENIC SPE C B C
OTHER STD C B C
DRINK HYGIENIC SPE C B C
OTHER STD C B C
PHARMACEUTICALS HYGIENIC SPE C B C
OTHER STD C B C
MARINE PROPULSION SPE C C C
BILGE STD B C B
BALLAST STD B C B
FIRE FIGHTING STD B C B
OTHER SHIP PUMPS STD B C B
DOCK DEWATERING STD C C C
MINERAL MINING/PROCESSING DEWATERING STD C B C
MINE DRAINAGE STD A B A
DREDGE STD C B C
GRAVEL STD C B C
SLURRY STD B B B
JETTING STD C B C
SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C A C
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR STD A C A
SEWERAGE SEWERAGE STD B C B
BUILDING SERVICES HEATING/VENT/AIR COND INDUSTRIAL STD C A C
HEATING/VENT/AIR COND DOMESTIC STD C A C
CONSTRUCTION DEWATERING STD C A C
OTHER INDUSTRIES CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B C B
Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued
ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 8
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Other columns in the table are entitled ‘size’, ‘clients’ and ’contract’. These
are graded A, B or C according to the criteria given in the footnote to the table.
‘Size’ refers to the output capaci ty of the pump. ‘Clients’ indicates whether
there are a l arge number of potential customers in an application. ‘Contract’
refers to the typical size of a major pump contract. Thes e three parameters
have a fundamental effect on marketing methods and the nature of
competition.
Engineered Pumps
Engineered pumps are generally of large size, a nd built to a h igh
specification. On the specification side , conformity with API 610 is judged to
place pumps in the ‘engineered’ catego ry. Oil refinery process pumps are
included for that reason, rather than because of size. The main other end uses
employing engineered pumps are oil and gas production and po wer
generation. A characteristic of the m arket for engineered pumps is that major
contracts are £ multi-million. There are a relatively small number of clients in
the major areas of application, whether these are oil com panies or power
generation plant operators.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 9
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Standard Pumps
The main characteristic of standard pumps is that they are produced in
large numbers at relatively low unit cost. Size ranges are wide, from small
to medium and large. Modern computer-aided manufacturing techniques
are employed to maximise economies of scale. Within the category there
are wide ranges of materials, from cast iron to stainless steel and exotic
alloys. Standard pumps may be ‘stand ard’ for particular applications, so
that submersible pumps can be thought of as standard to the water supply
application, rotary lobe pumps are standard for food processing, although
both types of pump have applications outside these major areas.
The classification of pumps as ‘sta ndard’ can change over tim e. For
example, circulating pumps might have been thought of as special purpose
thirty years ago. The growth of domestic central heating provided a market
that mass production methods could supply effectively. Conversely,
standard pumps might be used for a particular application, but give way to
the development of special purpose pumps, where the greater cost can be
justified on the grounds of efficiency.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 10
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Standard pumps are used in all applications. The number of clients in a
particular application can be relatively few (e.g. oil and gas, power
generation), or vast, as in the case of heating, ventilating and air
conditioning. The average value of major contracts is much smaller than for
engineered pumps, but can be s ubstantial for large chemical or food
processing plants.
Special Purpose Pumps
Special purpose pumps are required where standard pumps cannot provide
an efficient solution. They are prod uced in relatively sm all numbers by
specialist companies and command a price premium over standard pumps.
Manufacturers of special purpose pumps could provide standard pumps, but
because they cannot achieve the same economies of scale as the specialist
standard pump manufacturers, they cannot compete on price grounds.
Manufacturers of special purpose pum ps usually have a large number of
customers. This is because there are applications for their products across
all end uses. An additional factor is th at as process plants become smaller
(and so m ore numerous), their products become more diversified and
require specialist production techniques.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 11
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Average values of typical m ajor contracts are rel atively small. Relatively
high marketing costs exist because of the need to service a large num ber of
clients. This encourages special pur pose pump manufacturers to add value
by supplying systems, rather than bare pumps. Examples of applications for
special purpose pumps are dosing, metering, handling mixtures of gases and
liquids, spraying chemicals etc.
Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps
The distinction between these three broad groups is of interest because it is
highly relevant to the m arket segmentation faced by com panies producing
pumps with dif ferent technologies. The chart below shows the percent
breakdown of the world market. Engineered accounted for 20% , special
purpose pumps 15% and standard pumps 65% .
Engin-eered20%
Special15%Standard
65%
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 12
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps
The chart below shows market sizes for engineered pumps The m ajor
markets are in oil and gas production, oil refining and power generation.
Market Size, Average 2013, Engineered Pumps, $m current prices
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Oil & Gas-Onshore
Oil & Gas-Offshore
Oil Refining
Coal/Oil Power Gen
Nuclear Power Gen
Gas/Cogen PowerGen
Pulp & Paper
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 13
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Sizes for Standard Pumps
Standard pumps are used across virtually all end uses. The largest are
municipal water/wastewater, other industry, domestic and mining.
Market Size, Average 2013, Standard Pumps, $m current prices
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Municipal Water/Wastewater
Other Industry
Domestic
Mining
Building Services
Basic Chemicals
Construction Dewatering
Metal Manfacture
Food
Marine
Oil Refining
Other Chemicals
Pulp & Paper
Oil & Gas-Onshore
Hydro Power Gen
Oil & Gas-Offshore
Drink
Coal/Oil Power Gen
Gas/Cogen Power Gen
Pharmaceuticals
Biofuels
Nuclear Power Gen
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 14
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps
Special purpose pumps are used in industries where m ixing, blending,
dosing etc requirements are signifi cant. The largest markets are in other
industry, chemicals, food and drink and water/wastewater,
Market Size, Average 2013, Special Purpose Pumps, $m current prices
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Other Industry
Other Chemicals
Basic Chemicals
Food
Municipal Water/Wastewater
Drink
Oil & Gas-Onshore
Pharmaceuticals
Oil Refining
Oil & Gas-Offshore
Pulp & Paper
Biofuels
Metal Manfacture
Nuclear Power Gen
Marine
Coal/Oil Power Gen
Gas/Cogen Power Gen
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 15
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION AND REFINING
Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries
Rankings for the market for complete pumps are shown in the table on the
next page. The US is by far the largest market, followed by China & Russia.
Market size is i nfluenced by the cost of production. Saudi Arabia has the
lowest costs and this is reflected in a relatively low m arket size, given the
scale of oil production. Other factors are the inclusion of relatively high cost
LNG in results for certain countries.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 16
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Market in Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates
$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19
$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST contNorway 104 1.5 Libya 71 7.3United Kingdom 103 7.1 Egypt 65 -0.6Italy 51 -3.3 Tunisia 31 7.1Germany 45 2.3 Kuwait 27 6.0Denmark 34 10.6 Turkey 23 7.7Austria 29 7.5 Bahrein 16 7.6France 28 5.2 Syria 1 5.2Netherlands 23 2.0Sweden 17 6.8Spain 12 3.4Belgium 12 9.1Portugal 11 7.9 ASIAIreland 7 6.5Switzerland 5 19.3 China 822 1.1Greece 5 6.9 Australia 446 10.7Finland 4 4.7 India 358 3.0
Indonesia 227 3.4EAST EUROPE Malaysia 213 5.5
Thailand 128 10.9Russia 565 5.6 Vietnam 110 10.3Poland 43 6.5 Singapore 96 7.4Romania 42 6.7 Philippines 93 8.2Hungary 36 6.4 Japan 59 -15.1Bulgaria 12 6.6 Korea - South 40 2.3Czech Republic 11 8.4 Pakistan 32 8.2
Taiwan 26 1.2AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 6 8.2
New Zealand 1 8.4Saudi Arabia 531 6.0UAE 444 8.6Iraq 315 5.5 AMERICAAlgeria 183 6.4Iran 162 4.0 United States 1619 8.4Nigeria 152 0.9 Brazil 367 6.7Qatar 104 18.6 Canada 262 2.3South Africa 80 0.7 Mexico 221 8.2Oman 80 7.5 Colombia 104 8.0
Venezuela 46 9.6Argentina 46 8.2Chile 6 6.7
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 17
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Oil and Gas Production
We sub-divide the market into offshore and onshore. Results by world region
and application (annual average 2014-2016) are shown on Pages IV 19 and
IV 20 respectively.
Regional demand is determined by the location of crude oil supplies. The
most important areas are USA/Canada, Middle East, Latin America and West
Europe.
Note that figures for Africa exclude offshore West Africa
0 500 1000 1500 2000
USA/Canada
Middle East
Pacific Rim
Latin America
Other Asia
Africa
China
Russia
India
West Europe
Other East Europe
Japan
Oil & Gas, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 18
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Oil & Gas Production - market change 2014-2019
The chart below shows that we expect the largest increases in the demand for
pumps will arise in the Middle East and US. Note that figures for Other East
Europe do not include Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, where demand is known to
be growing rapidly. The countries incl uded in the figures for Africa exclude
offshore Angola and Equatorial Guinea.
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Oil & Gas, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 19
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
ONSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Main oil line
Metering/dosing
Fire pumps
Injection pumps
Gas scrubbing
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 4.5 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.7 8.8Other West Europe 28.4 2.9 11.2 5.6 2.9 4.4 55.0
Russia 140.5 13.6 54.0 27.0 13.6 21.7 270.3Other East Europe 48.9 4.7 18.8 9.3 4.7 7.5 94.2
Africa 196.9 19.1 75.6 37.8 19.1 30.2 378.6Middle East 773.3 74.7 297.2 148.6 74.7 119.3 1488.1
China 193.8 18.7 74.4 37.3 18.7 29.8 372.8India 26.9 2.6 10.3 5.1 2.6 4.1 51.8Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pacific Rim 170.0 16.4 65.2 32.5 16.4 25.9 326.4Other Asia 138.8 13.3 53.4 26.6 13.3 21.3 266.7
USA/Canada 507.4 49.0 195.2 97.6 49.0 78.0 976.2Latin America 169.5 16.5 65.3 32.7 16.5 26.1 326.0
World 2399.1 231.8 922.4 460.8 231.8 369.1 4615.0
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 20
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
OFFSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
** n.b countries covered exclude Caspian Sea area
* n.b. excludes offshore African countries
Mainoil line
Metering/dosing
Firepumps
Injectionpumps
Sea water lift
Gas scrubbing
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other West Europe 37.0 9.3 46.2 18.6 46.2 5.6 22.0 184.0
Russia 7.9 2.1 10.0 4.0 10.0 1.2 4.7 39.7Other East Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Africa 21.6 5.4 27.0 10.9 27.0 3.3 13.0 108.4Middle East 189.2 47.6 236.7 94.2 236.7 28.4 113.4 945.9
China 10.3 2.6 13.0 5.1 13.0 1.7 6.2 51.9India 56.3 14.1 70.3 28.1 70.3 8.6 33.8 281.2Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pacific Rim 77.9 19.8 97.5 38.8 97.5 11.5 46.6 388.8Other Asia 27.9 7.0 34.9 14.0 34.9 4.2 16.7 139.7
USA/Canada 140.8 35.2 176.0 70.3 176.0 21.2 84.4 703.8Latin America 53.1 13.3 66.4 26.5 66.4 8.0 31.8 265.2
World 622.0 156.5 778.0 310.5 778.0 93.6 372.7 3108.4
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 21
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Oil Refining
There are many factors influencing the market for pumps in oil refining.
Traditionally, industrialised countries have imported crude oil and refined it
themselves. Developing countries with oil resources now wish t o expand
capacity to add value to their oil exports. Until recently pum p demand in the
industrial countries was also influenced strongly by cont inuous upgrading of
refining capacity and by new environmental legislation. The chart below shows
the pattern of world demand.
The breakdown by application is given in the table on Page IV 23.
0 100 200 300 400 500
China
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Russia
USA/Canada
Latin America
West Europe
Africa
India
Other East Europe
Japan
Other Asia
Oil Refining, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 22
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Oil Refining - Market Change 2014-2019
Africa, Middle East, Pacific Rim and Latin America continue to expand
capacity. The figures for China reflect lower invesment after very rapid
growth in recent years.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
West Europe
Russia
Other East
Europe
Africa
Middle East
China
India
Japan
Pacific Rim
Other A
sia
USA
/Canada
Latin Am
erica
Oil Refining, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 23
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
OIL REFINING REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Refinery process Watercirculating
Special purpose Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 9.6 1.6 2.1 2.7 16.0Other West Europe 94.9 15.8 20.6 26.9 158.1
Russia 137.4 22.9 29.8 39.0 229.0Other East Europe 61.3 10.2 13.3 17.4 102.1
Africa 76.6 12.8 16.6 21.8 127.7Middle East 208.8 34.9 45.3 59.3 348.1
China 293.2 48.9 63.5 83.3 488.7India 121.8 20.3 26.4 34.6 203.0Japan 23.7 4.0 5.1 6.7 39.6Pacific Rim 200.1 33.4 43.3 56.8 333.6Other Asia 10.7 1.7 2.3 3.0 17.8
USA/Canada 100.7 16.8 21.8 28.6 167.7Latin America 189.9 31.8 41.1 53.9 316.6
World 1528.7 255.1 331.1 434.1 2548.0
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 24
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
It is important to make a clear distinction between basic chemicals and ‘other’
chemicals. Basic chemicals consist of large scale organic and inorganic plants.
‘Other’ chemicals consist of all other chemical plants, including
pharmaceuticals, dyestuffs, agrochemicals, synthetic resins, paints, synthetic
rubber, industrial gases etc.
The two sectors have m ajor differences in terms of the number of companies
involved, underlying investment trends a nd pump requirements. Basic
chemicals are subject to greater economic cycles than downstream chemicals
because they experience wide fluctuations in com modity prices and because
the industry is more exposed to international competition.
The world pattern of investment between basic chemicals and ‘other’
chemicals is also very different. Demand for basic chemicals in the Western
industrialised world has reached saturation but dem and for certain types of
other chemicals continues to grow. In the developing industrialised countries
the first priority has to be the growth of bas ic chemicals capacity, before
downstream plants can be established.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 25
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Advanced Developing
Chemical Industry - World Capital Expenditure
The table below shows capital expend iture, split betwee n advanced and
developing countries. Developing countries investment exceeded the figures
for advanced countries in year 2001, and since then the gap has
systematically grown larger. Over the forecast period, growth in the
advanced countries is partly explained by the development of shale gas as a
low-cost feedstock in USA and Canada . We have reduced our forecast of
captial investment in West Europe, compared with last year, to take account
of the effect of low cost petrochemical imports from USA/Canada.
World Chemical Industry Capital Expenditure - $ billions
Source: National Statistica Offices, EIF estimates
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 26
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Trends in Capital investment in Basic Chemicals in the Advanced
Countries
There have been tw o important trends in ca pital investment in basic
chemicals affecting the advanced countries. The first is the development of
shale gas in USA/Canada which will lead to a strong increase of
petrochemical plant capacity in these countries over the next decade (in
marked contrast with stagnation or decline over the previous twenty years).
The second development is the decline in petrochemical plant capacity in
Western Europe, which in part is the direct result of expansion in USA/
Canada but has also been affected by a rapid build up of capaci ty in the
Middle East and China.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 27
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Chemical Industry Ranking by 63 Countries
Rankings by market size for complete pumps in the chem ical industry are
shown in the table on the next page.
China, Germany and the USA are clear leaders. Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE
are large markets in the Africa & Middle East section. Other large markets in
Asia are found in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. In Europe, excluding
Germany, the leading markets are in Russia, France, Switzerland and the UK
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 28
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Market in Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates
$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19
$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont
Germany 413 4.0 Algeria 12 8.0Switzerland 136 2.4 South Africa 9 8.7Italy 66 3.7 Oman 6 4.0France 49 2.7 Nigeria 1 9.6United Kingdom 48 3.4 Bahrein 1 22.9Denmark 46 1.1Spain 37 2.9Netherlands 37 2.0Belgium 21 2.6Ireland 18 1.2Sweden 17 3.0Austria 14 2.1 ASIAPortugal 5 6.4Norway 3 0.7 China 1025 7.6Finland 3 2.9 Japan 218 3.5
Korea - South 134 9.8India 118 8.7
EAST EUROPE Thailand 67 10.2Indonesia 67 8.0
Russia 96 5.8 Taiwan 43 3.3Poland 24 7.5 Singapore 41 8.7Hungary 21 7.1 Philippines 38 10.2Bulgaria 13 7.8 Malaysia 31 10.3Czech Republic 7 11.4 Vietnam 22 8.2Romania 6 3.0 Australia 16 5.2
Pakistan 10 8.7AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 9 8.9
Saudi Arabia 164 11.3UAE 62 7.7Turkey 28 10.1 AMERICAIsrael 18 8.6Kuwait 15 9.5 United States 567 6.9
Brazil 100 8.6Canada 64 4.5Venezuela 44 5.5Mexico 33 8.6Chile 22 8.7Argentina 18 7.6
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 29
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Basic Chemicals
The chart below shows that the largest markets are in China, West Europe,
Pacific Rim, Middle East and US/Canada.
The breakdown by application is shown on Page IV 31.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
West Europe
China
USA/Canada
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Japan
Latin America
Russia
India
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Africa
Basic Chemicals, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 30
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Basic Chemicals - Market change 2014-2019
The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected in
China, West Europe and US/Canada.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Basic Chemicals, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 31
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
BASIC CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Chemicalprocess
Metering/dosing
Specialpurpose
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 184.9 29.4 56.8 13.0 284.2Other West Europe 188.0 29.9 57.7 14.9 290.5
Russia 59.4 9.4 18.3 4.2 91.4Other East Europe 38.8 6.4 12.1 3.4 60.7
Africa 29.4 4.7 8.5 2.3 45.0Middle East 201.4 32.5 62.0 14.3 310.4
China 345.2 54.8 106.4 24.9 531.4India 56.5 9.0 17.4 4.0 87.0Japan 127.3 20.1 39.2 9.1 195.6Pacific Rim 243.0 38.5 75.1 16.6 374.0Other Asia 14.0 2.4 4.3 1.2 21.8
USA/Canada 157.4 25.1 48.9 11.3 242.5Latin America 66.4 10.4 20.4 4.9 102.1
World 1711.8 272.7 527.2 124.1 2636.6
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 32
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Other Chemicals
The chart below shows that the largest markets are in China, West Europe,
Middle East, Pacific Rim and US/Canada.
The demand for products of 'other' chemicals is significantly dependent on
high living standards - e.g. cosm etics, toiletries etc. Other Chem icals is a
particularly large consumer of rotary pumps. The breakdown by application
is shown on Page IV 34.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
China
West Europe
USA/Canada
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Latin America
Japan
India
Russia
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Africa
Other Chemicals, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 33
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Other Chemicals - market change 2014-2019
The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected
in China, West Europe and the Middle East.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Other Chemicals, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 34
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
OTHER CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Chemicalprocess
Metering/dosing
Special purpose
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 35.3 15.5 45.6 4.5 100.6Other West Europe 34.8 15.2 45.3 5.4 100.0
Russia 10.3 4.3 13.2 1.2 28.6Other East Europe 7.7 3.8 9.7 1.2 21.7
Africa 6.2 3.2 8.0 0.9 18.4Middle East 71.6 31.3 92.5 9.4 204.7
China 147.7 64.4 190.0 19.3 421.5India 19.3 8.4 24.8 2.5 55.0Japan 24.4 10.6 31.7 3.2 70.1Pacific Rim 52.6 23.3 67.6 7.0 150.3Other Asia 3.2 1.5 4.0 0.5 9.1
USA/Canada 23.4 10.0 29.9 3.2 66.6Latin America 13.8 6.0 17.8 1.9 39.9
World 450.3 197.3 580.2 60.2 1286.3
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 35
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
POWER GENERATION
Power generation is a large user of pumps for water cooling and transfer and
for high temperature and pressure applications. Plant technology has a major
bearing on pump usage, so it is necessary to sub-divide investment activity in
order to provide credible market forecasts.
We sub-divide pump requirements for power generation into:
a) coal/oil fired
b) combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration
c) nuclear
d) hydroelectric
Power generation for desalination (m ainly concentrated in the Middle East)
is included in combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration.
Rankings of Complete Pump Market Size by 63 countries
The table on the next page shows ranking s by market size in 2014. In Asia
the leading markets are China, Japan, India, and South Korea. In America the
US and Brazil lead. In West Europe the leaders are Germany, France, Italy
and the UK. Leading markets in East Europe are Russia and Poland. Markets
in Africa & Middle East are led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 36
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Market in Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates
$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19
$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont
Germany 224 0.4 Syria 2 2.6France 67 2.6 Libya 2 5.9United Kingdom 54 30.9 Kuwait 2 11.7Italy 40 4.5 Bahrein 2 0.0Denmark 34 4.6 Tunisia 1 1.9Spain 22 3.1 Israel 1 -3.3Netherlands 22 3.9 Iraq 1 3.4Austria 22 5.9Sweden 15 4.1Switzerland 13 18.9Portugal 13 6.4Finland 12 4.2 ASIANorway 9 6.4Belgium 9 2.5 China 796 10.0Greece 7 2.6 India 220 8.7Ireland 3 5.2 Japan 189 13.0
Korea - South 95 0.5EAST EUROPE Australia 64 -0.1
Thailand 47 4.7Russia 279 11.6 Singapore 40 3.9Poland 22 3.5 Philippines 40 3.3Bulgaria 14 8.9 Indonesia 39 2.6Romania 12 2.5 Vietnam 37 7.7Czech Republic 12 7.0 Pakistan 28 4.0Hungary 4 6.6 Hong Kong 22 4.5
Taiwan 17 7.9AFRICA/MID. EAST Malaysia 5 7.0
New Zealand 1 10.8Saudi Arabia 49 3.7Turkey 47 8.2UAE 22 29.4 AMERICAEgypt 15 -2.0Nigeria 13 2.7 United States 121 5.8Morocco 7 3.5 Mexico 82 3.2Algeria 7 2.4 Brazil 69 5.3South Africa 5 0.8 Canada 53 2.8Iran 3 3.3 Colombia 23 4.5
Venezuela 21 0.4Argentina 13 4.0Chile 5 4.5
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 37
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Power Generation - Market Size
Requirements by power type, application and world regi on are tabulated on
Pages IV 38 to IV 41 respectively. Overall market sizes for power generation
are shown in the chart below. China is the leader, followed by West Europe,
Pacific Rim, Russia and and Latin America.
0 200 400 600 800 1000
China
West Europe
Pacific Rim
Russia
India
Japan
Latin America
USA/Canada
Middle East
Other Asia
Other East Europe
Africa
Power Generation, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 38
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Power Generation - change in market size 2014-2019
The main growth areas are China, Russia and West Europe.
The massive increase in investment in renewables in West Europe reduces
the demand for pumps. Low gas prices in the USA have led to an increase in
the market share of gas-fired power plants .
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Power Generation, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 39
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
COAL/OIL FIRED POWER GENERATION REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Boiler feed-100%
Boiler feed-50%
Cooling water
Booster Condensaterecovery
Lube oil system
Boilercirculating
Ash/fgdpumps
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 25.1 6.4 6.4 5.9 8.5 6.9 5.9 13.2 22.7 119.6Other WestEurope
25.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 9.6 7.5 6.0 13.3 23.2 120.3
Russia 19.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.5 5.3 4.9 10.3 17.6 93.9Other East Europe 5.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.7 3.3 5.3 28.2
Africa 5.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 3.0 4.9 24.2Middle East 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.3 2.3 11.3
China 61.4 15.8 15.8 14.6 20.5 17.0 14.6 32.1 55.5 293.2India 30.9 8.0 8.0 7.4 10.3 8.6 7.4 16.1 27.9 146.6Japan 6.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 3.3 5.8 30.6Pacific Rim 17.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 6.3 5.0 4.4 9.3 15.8 83.7Other Asia 11.9 3.2 3.2 2.9 4.0 3.4 2.9 6.4 11.0 56.9
USA/Canada 7.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 3.8 6.4 33.7Latin America 29.3 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.1 8.8 7.6 15.1 26.8 141.2
World 248.0 64.6 64.6 60.4 84.8 70.5 60.4 130.6 225.1 1183.2
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 40
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
GAS TURBINE/COMBINED CYCLE/COGENERATION REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Boiler feed Watercirculation
Condensaterecovery
Coolingwater
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 34.2 27.2 13.8 12.4 49.2 136.8Other West Europe 26.9 22.0 10.8 9.4 37.3 105.4
Russia 5.2 4.2 2.3 2.0 8.3 22.1Other East Europe 4.0 3.2 1.9 2.0 5.5 16.0
Africa 8.9 7.1 3.8 3.5 12.0 33.9Middle East 21.3 17.3 9.3 7.9 30.8 85.0
China 18.6 14.9 7.5 6.7 26.8 74.5India 15.0 11.8 6.0 5.4 21.5 59.8Japan 13.1 10.4 5.3 4.8 18.9 52.3Pacific Rim 35.7 27.8 15.1 13.6 50.7 143.2Other Asia 6.6 5.1 2.9 2.6 9.3 25.7
USA/Canada 23.4 18.5 9.4 8.6 33.6 93.7Latin America 8.4 6.5 3.8 3.3 11.5 33.3
World 221.0 175.9 91.8 82.3 315.3 881.7
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 41
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
NUCLEAR POWER REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Primarycoolant
Coolingwater
Reactorboiler feed
Safeguard Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 2.5 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 7.4Other West Europe 35.7 12.6 20.9 18.6 17.2 104.2
Russia 62.3 22.0 36.2 32.1 30.2 182.8Other East Europe 4.1 1.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 12.2
Africa 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8Middle East 10.3 3.7 6.0 5.4 5.0 30.1
China 138.0 48.9 80.2 71.3 66.8 405.1India 27.4 9.7 15.9 14.1 13.3 78.6Japan 14.6 5.2 8.4 7.5 7.0 42.8Pacific Rim 23.3 8.3 13.5 12.0 11.2 68.1Other Asia 1.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 4.4
USA/Canada 18.7 6.6 10.9 9.7 9.0 54.8Latin America 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.6
World 339.5 120.3 197.4 175.5 164.4 993.8
* New UAE reactors begin after this period
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 42
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
HYDROELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATIONS$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
$ millionGermany 10.8Other West Europe 39.5
Russia 15.8Other East Europe 4.0
Africa 6.5Middle East 39.2
China 168.9India 27.7Japan 14.1Pacific Rim 40.9Other Asia 8.1
USA/Canada 13.8Latin America 91.2
World 480.5
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 43
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
WATER & WASTEWATER TREATMENT
Previous issues of this report referred to the end use 'water and sewerage' ,
which actually related to municipal water and wastewater treatment. Industrial
water/wastewater treatment was (and continues to be) includ ed in the market
by the different end use industries.
We have reclassified some applications by end use industry so that industrial
water/wastewater is better defined, and we also show industrial water/
wastewater (summed across end use industries) as a sub-total in the individual
country tables in Part II of this report.
This section of the report summarises results for the sum of industrial and
municipal water/wastewater treatment.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 44
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Water and wastewater treatment is a large market for pumps, with radically
different market drivers for the advanced industrial countries compared with
the developing countries.
In the case of the industrial countries there are two major factors. The first is
the importance of environmental legislation in recent years and the second is
the trend towards privatisation of municipal utilities. The latter has also led to
growing horizontal integration of privately owned gas, electricity and water
companies.
Developing countries have radically di fferent market prospects. Those with
natural resources or dynamism which supports the growth of export revenue
are able to afford the cost without entirely having to depend on international
aid: examples are China, Malaysia, India, oil exporters in the Middle East
etc. Many other developing countries, and particularly those in Africa,
depend almost entirely on international aid to support investment in water
and sewerage. In these cases widespread corruption over several decades has
diverted monies intended for investment into private bank accounts outside
the countries in question. This has not only starve d these countries of the
necessary investment in the past, it has inhibited the growth of funding in the
short term and this inhibition can be expected to persist over the forecast
period, despite UN initiatives involving targets for water and sanitation. The
recent large increase in food prices have also reduced the international ai d
available for water and sewerage projects, since food aid takes a larger share
of aid budgets.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 45
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Rankings of the complete pump market for Water & Wastewater
(sum of municipal and industrial) in 63 countries
Market size and growth rates are shown in the table on the next page.
In the industrialised world the USA is the largest market, followed by the
Japan and Germany. Japan has had a massive municipal investment
programme in re cent years, which is now unwindi ng since water and
sewerage standards have now reached the levels in other advanced industrial
countries.
China is the largest market in the developing world, followed by India.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 46
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Market in Water/Wastewater (industrial + municipal)
Ranking by 63 Countries
$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19
$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont
Germany 1100 6.9 Iran 39 2.2Italy 507 7.8 Iraq 34 6.3France 437 7.6 Kuwait 33 5.8United Kingdom 373 8.7 Algeria 32 5.6Spain 260 7.7 Oman 22 7.2Sweden 203 6.9 Tunisia 17 3.8Denmark 178 7.5 Qatar 15 12.3Netherlands 171 7.2 Bahrein 5 3.9Switzerland 123 7.1 Syria 2 8.4Austria 116 7.5Belgium 107 7.6Finland 56 7.4 ASIAIreland 41 5.3Portugal 39 8.5 China 2871 8.9Norway 38 6.2 Japan 897 4.1Greece 17 6.1 India 594 5.5
Australia 431 2.8EAST EUROPE Korea - South 318 7.6
Indonesia 148 5.2Russia 389 4.9 Thailand 140 8.4Poland 133 6.8 Vietnam 111 8.8Hungary 52 6.7 Hong Kong 99 7.9Czech Republic 37 9.5 Singapore 72 6.9Romania 36 6.5 Taiwan 65 1.4Bulgaria 17 4.8 Malaysia 52 7.2
Philippines 48 7.3AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 28 8.0
New Zealand 18 7.3Saudi Arabia 161 6.3UAE 133 7.1Turkey 127 6.9 AMERICASouth Africa 75 2.8Morocco 71 3.3 United States 1727 8.1Egypt 64 -0.1 Brazil 371 5.3Israel 60 5.5 Canada 302 5.3Nigeria 44 3.4 Mexico 160 6.5Libya 40 4.9 Chile 73 5.8
Argentina 49 7.0Colombia 38 6.4Venezuela 24 3.4
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 47
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Water/Wastewater Treatment - Market Size by World Region
The chart below shows market size (annual average 2014-2016). West Europe
China, USA/Canada and Japan account for a high proportion of the market in
the identified countries. Some developing countries with low income levels
are, in aggregate, a significant m arket for pumps in water and sewerage
because of the importance of international aid, but many in Africa, Asia and
Latin America are excluded because this report covers the top 63 economies.
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
West Europe
China
USA/Canada
Pacific Rim
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
India
Other Asia
Russia
Africa
Other East Europe
Water & Sewerage, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 48
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Change for Water/Wastewater Treatment (Industrial plus
Municipal)
The chart below shows m arket change 2014-2019. The largest increases in
demand are to be found in China, West Europe and US/Canada.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Water & Sewerage, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 49
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
WATER & WASTEWATER TREATMENTPUMP REQUIREMENTS - Annual average 2014-2016
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
TotalIndustrial
MunicipalWater Resources
MunicipalWastewater
TotalMunicipal
TotalWater/
Wastewater
Germany 645.0 210.6 320.0 530.6 1175.6Other West Europe 1567.3 485.2 737.2 1222.4 2789.7
Russia 354.7 33.8 51.3 85.1 439.8Other East Europe 191.2 55.2 83.9 139.1 330.4
Africa 333.8 25.5 38.6 64.1 397.9Middle East 661.9 98.3 149.1 247.3 909.3
China 2304.8 433.6 658.7 1092.3 3397.1India 512.3 206.7 155.9 258.4 770.7Japan 449.9 247.4 375.9 623.3 1073.2Pacific Rim 856.7 84.2 128.1 212.3 1069.0Other Asia 466.9 37.9 57.7 95.6 562.5
USA/Canada 1295.3 342.0 519.5 861.4 2156.8Latin America 773.8 84.6 128.5 213.0 986.8
World 10413.8 2344.9 3404.2 5645.0 16058.8
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 50
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
GENERAL INDUSTRY
General industry covers all pump applications outside the industries already
considered and, in most instances, demand in particular countries is closely
related to trends in population and GDP per capita, rather than the
availability of natural resources. However, there are two exceptions: mineral
mining/processing and pulp and paper, because the availability of natural
resources is clearly important in these instances.
In this section we consider markets in the following end use industries:
Mining
Pulp & Paper
Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals
Metal Manufacture
Marine
Building Services
Construction Dewatering
Other Industry (includes agriculture, coal mining, engineering & vehicles,
textiles, building materials, other manufacturing)
Domestic
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 51
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Ranking of the Market Size for Complete Pumps in General Industry
for 63 Countries
The table on the next page shows that the largest markets are in the major
industrial countries. China, South Korea, India, Russia and Brazil also rank
high.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 52
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pump Market in General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries
$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates
$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19
$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19
WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST cont
Germany 1908 7.3 Kuwait 45 4.5Italy 734 7.9 Nigeria 36 3.6France 611 7.7 Oman 28 6.6United Kingdom 419 7.7 Iraq 28 8.3Sweden 357 6.3 Tunisia 26 3.0Spain 330 7.4 Libya 12 3.3Denmark 273 7.4 Bahrein 6 4.6Netherlands 244 7.6 Qatar 5 -2.1Switzerland 189 7.4 Syria 4 9.1Austria 181 7.5Belgium 159 7.6Finland 85 7.3 ASIAPortugal 62 8.1Ireland 61 6.1 China 4768 8.7Norway 54 6.9 Japan 1687 3.7Greece 42 7.2 India 763 5.2
Australia 740 1.3EAST EUROPE Korea - South 623 8.3
Indonesia 236 6.2Russia 467 3.4 Hong Kong 217 7.9Poland 181 6.6 Vietnam 193 8.4Hungary 56 6.6 Thailand 154 8.1Romania 45 5.1 Taiwan 92 1.1Czech Republic 44 8.5 Singapore 74 7.6Bulgaria 19 4.8 Malaysia 57 7.2
Philippines 33 7.5AFRICA/MID. EAST New Zealand 28 6.5
Pakistan 22 7.9Turkey 229 6.9UAE 190 4.2South Africa 140 3.6 AMERICAMorocco 134 3.4Israel 101 5.3 United States 2150 8.2Saudi Arabia 95 7.4 Brazil 591 5.5Egypt 87 0.6 Canada 559 4.9Algeria 51 5.8 Mexico 203 5.9Iran 50 0.9 Chile 126 5.6
Argentina 46 7.1Colombia 38 5.5Venezuela 21 1.8
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 53
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Mining, excluding Oil & Gas
We have extended the coverage of mining, compared with previous
reports, to cover all mining and quarrying, excluding oil and gas.
The pattern of world demand for pum ps, shown in the chart below, is
determined mainly by the availability of natural resources. China, Other
Asia (mainly Australia) and Latin Am erica are important for this reason.
Note that our 63 countries exclude some significant producers in Africa
and Latin America.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Other Asia
China
Latin America
USA/Canada
Russia
West Europe
Africa
India
Middle East
Pacific Rim
Other East Europe
Japan
Mining, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 54
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Mining Capital Expenditure
Capital expenditure by the top 15 mining companies (estimated to account for around 75% of
world mining) is shown in the table below compared with last year’s figures. Last year we
were too optimistic (for the s econd year in a row) about th e speed of recovery in m ining
capital expenditure from 2013 onwards.
Having re-examined capital expenditure plans by the top 15 mining companies up to 2016,
our forecast through 2019 are even lower than last year. The larger com panies are cutting
capital spending in favour of boosting shareholders’ returns. Expenditure in 2019 is expected
to remain below the peak reached in 2012. In large part this is explained by the m acro-
economic slowdown in China.
Capital Expenditure by the Top 15 Mining Companies - $ million
Source: Reports and Accounts of Mining Companies, IMF, EIF estimates.Includes Anglo American, BHP, Norilisk Nickel, Vale, Antofgasta, Kazakhyms, Newmont, Glencore, Barrick Gold, Rio Tinto, Grupo Mexico, Freeport-McMoran, Codelco, Newcrest, Potash Corp
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
This Year Last Year
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 55
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Mining - change in market size 2014-2019
The chart below shows t he importance of China, USA/Canada and Latin
America for increases in demand.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Wes
t Eur
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Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
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Africa
Midd
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China
India
Japa
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Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Mining, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 56
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
MININGPUMP REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Drainage Gravel/dredge
Slurry Jetting Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 17.6 7.6 12.1 10.8 44.5 91.8Other WestEurope
43.6 19.4 27.7 26.8 102.9 217.1
Russia 81.3 32.5 51.2 47.3 194.1 404.7Other EastEurope
17.3 6.1 11.3 10.0 44.2 88.2
Africa 58.7 23.1 34.4 33.4 139.8 287.8Middle East 27.8 11.3 18.3 18.4 71.8 145.9
China 125.1 49.5 77.6 73.4 300.7 625.9India 26.6 10.6 16.4 15.7 64.0 133.4Japan 2.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 4.6 9.0Pacific Rim 15.8 7.5 10.9 10.0 38.1 79.8Other Asia 139.9 55.6 85.7 81.5 336.1 698.9
USA/Canada 79.8 30.7 49.1 46.4 192.0 398.2Latin America 126.9 52.5 78.9 75.2 306.4 641.0
World 762.6 306.7 474.3 449.8 1839.0 3821.5
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 57
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Pulp & Paper Capital Expenditure
The table below s hows world capi tal expenditure on pulp and paper. The
average annual com pound growth 2000-19 is estim ated at 2.7% per year.
There were significant recessions in 2002/3 and 2009/10.
Virtually all the growth from 2010 onwards is concentrated in developing
countries.
Source: EIF estimates
05
1015202530354045
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
World Pulp & Paper Capex - $ billion
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 58
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pulp and Paper
Although markets for pulp are predominantly in world regions where natural
resources are concentrated, i. e. Scandinavia, USA/Canada, demand for pumps
for paper product ion is spread across all industrialised countries. This is
reflected in the chart below, which shows average market size 2014-2016.
Page IV 59 shows the breakdown by application (average 2014-2016)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
USA/Canada
China
West Europe
Pacific Rim
Latin America
Japan
India
Other East Europe
Africa
Other Asia
Russia
Middle East
Pulp & Paper, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 59
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Pulp & Paper - Market Change 2014-2019
The chart below shows that China, USA/Canada and Pacific Rim are the
largest growth areas.
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
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Africa
Midd
le Eas
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China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Pulp & Paper, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 60
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
PUMPS FOR THE PULP & PAPER INDUSTRYBY APPLICATION -Annual average 2014-2016
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Metering/dosing
Liquor Stock Specialpurpose
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 1.5 12.8 7.0 4.9 5.3 31.6Other West Europe 9.7 96.9 52.8 37.9 41.5 237.4
Russia 0.5 4.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 11.0Other East Europe 0.9 8.0 4.4 3.3 3.7 19.9
Africa 0.7 5.7 3.3 2.4 2.5 14.6Middle East 0.5 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.4 9.0
China 6.5 66.3 35.5 25.8 27.6 161.7India 1.1 11.1 5.9 4.4 4.6 27.0Japan 3.0 29.2 15.6 11.2 12.1 71.2Pacific Rim 2.8 26.4 14.3 10.0 10.9 64.7Other Asia 0.4 4.3 2.4 1.9 1.9 10.7
USA/Canada 3.9 39.9 21.5 15.6 16.6 97.8Latin America 4.0 35.9 19.5 13.8 15.1 87.6
World 35.5 344.4 186.5 134.5 145.2 843.9
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 61
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Food, Drink and Pharmaceuticals
Demand is divided between hygienic and other pumps. The total value of
hygienic pumps used by food, drink and pharmaceuticals is estimated at around
$1,250 million, of which hygienic rotary lobe is the most important pump type,
with a world market of around $300 million (exc. parts). The breakdown
between ‘hygienic’ and ‘other’ pumps is given on Page IV 63. West Europe is
shown to be a much la rger market than USA/Canada. Although the West
European population is larger, the main explanation is that food processing is
carried out in m uch larger plants in North Am erica where there are m ajor
economies of scale.
0 200 400 600 800 1000
West Europe
China
Pacific Rim
USA/Canada
India
Japan
Middle East
Latin America
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Africa
Russia
Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 62
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals - Change in Market Size 2014-2019
In absolute terms, most of the growth occurs in China and West Europe.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 63
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
PUMPS FOR FOOD, DRINK, PHARMACEUTICALSAnnual average 2014-2016
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Hygienic Water/Wastewater
Total Hygienic Water/Wastewater
Total Hygienic Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 57.3 85.7 143.0 60.9 40.2 101.5 16.0 5.3 21.3Other WestEurope
143.1 214.5 358.1 91.0 59.3 150.5 63.2 21.4 84.5
Russia 7.6 11.2 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.2 4.7Other EastEurope
11.8 17.6 29.3 8.4 5.2 14.2 1.5 0.6 2.1
Africa 4.8 8.1 12.4 8.9 5.1 13.3 1.2 0.5 1.7Middle East 23.7 34.6 58.3 33.3 23.3 55.6 7.7 2.6 10.3
China 218.8 329.2 548.0 140.2 93.3 233.4 125.5 41.9 167.4India 44.0 66.3 110.2 17.6 11.7 29.3 28.7 9.5 38.2Japan 23.9 36.3 60.2 26.9 18.1 45.1 14.8 4.9 19.7Pacific Rim 40.8 60.0 101.2 27.0 17.9 44.6 29.4 10.0 39.4Other Asia 7.8 11.0 18.6 5.4 3.8 8.7 0.4 0.1 0.5
USA/Canada 38.3 57.7 95.9 33.5 22.5 56.1 37.0 12.4 49.3Latin America 14.9 23.1 38.0 24.2 15.5 39.5 1.4 0.4 1.8
World 636.7 955.1 1592.0 477.2 315.9 791.9 330.2 110.8 441.0
Food Drink Pharmaceuticals
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 64
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Metal Manufacturing
The chart below shows the largest market sizes (average 2014-2016) are in
China, West Europe, and Japan. China ranks high because the country is the
world's largest steel producer.
0 200 400 600 800
China
West Europe
India
Pacific Rim
Latin America
USA/Canada
Japan
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Metal Manufacturing, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 65
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Metal Manufacturing - Market Change 2014-2019
Industrialisation requires basic infrastructure and then production of a wide
range of metal using products. China is the only real growth area.
Page IV 65 tabulates requirements by application.
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Wes
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ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
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Africa
Midd
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China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Metal Manufacturing, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 66
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
METAL MANUFACTURING - PUMP REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Descaling/mill scale
Circulating Specialpurpose
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 38.0 12.6 12.6 63.2 126.5Other West Europe 54.6 18.2 18.2 89.9 180.1
Russia 2.1 0.4 0.4 3.2 6.7Other East Europe 8.8 2.6 2.6 14.3 28.1
Africa 7.0 2.4 2.4 11.3 22.6Middle East 7.6 2.3 2.3 12.4 24.6
China 192.7 59.8 62.0 314.5 629.1India 40.4 13.4 13.4 67.3 134.6Japan 37.3 12.2 12.2 61.8 123.7Pacific Rim 28.9 10.0 10.0 48.1 97.6Other Asia 7.9 2.7 2.7 13.4 26.6
USA/Canada 24.1 7.9 7.9 40.2 80.5Latin America 35.4 11.6 11.6 58.8 117.1
World 484.8 156.2 158.4 798.4 1597.6
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 67
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
World Shipbuilding Trends
New shipbuilding completions grew rapidly 2005-2010 so that a glut in capacity has drivendown shipping rates. New orders in 2012 were only 50% of the 28 million tonnes reached in2011. While there is a considerable order backlog, completions 2012 fell by 20% comparedwith 2011. In addition, the price of new ships is expected to fall by 6%, so that value ofcompletions was 26% lower in 2012 than in 2011. In 2012 South Korea accounted for 37%of new orders, followed by China with 34% and Japan with 12%.
The above figures exclude military shipbuilding which is particularly important in the US andChina. Note that new build and m aintenance each account for around 50% of the annualmarket for new equipment.
The chart below shows that we expect a recovery in new com pletions from 2014 onwards.
Note that the new build price index tends to move in the sam e direction cyclically as
completions, so reinforcing the effect of an upswing in demand on value.
New Civil Shipbuilding Completions and the Price Index of New Ship Construction
Source: Korean Shipbuilders Association, Clarkson Research, EIF estimates
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Completions 000 tonnes New Build Price 2010=100
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 68
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Marine
Marine is divided into ship producti on and repair and harbours, docks and
canals. Requirements by world region and application are tabulated on Page
IV 69 below.
Market size depends mainly on the production of civil and naval vessels (in
Europe, Japan and USA/Canada) and commercial ships (concentrated in
South Korea, Japan and, most recently, China). China is developing rapidly
for both civil and naval work.
0 50 100 150 200 250
China
Pacific Rim
West Europe
USA/Canada
Middle East
Russia
India
Japan
Latin America
Africa
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Marine, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 69
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Marine - Changes in Market Size 2014-2019
Pacific Rim, China and West Europe are the main growth areas. The growth
of capacity in China is expected to exceed growth in all other countries. In
2010 China accounted for over 25% of world civil shipbuilding. In addition,
China is expanding capacity of naval shipbuilding.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Marine, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 70
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
MARINE - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Annual average 2014-2016
Propulsion Bilge Ballast Firefighting
Water/Wastewater
Total
Germany 3.6 7.8 3.9 5.4 1.3 22.0Other West Europe 24.7 53.4 26.6 36.7 9.1 150.4
Russia 7.3 15.8 7.9 10.9 2.7 44.5Other East Europe 3.4 7.2 3.5 4.9 1.2 20.2
Africa 4.3 9.1 4.5 6.2 1.6 25.5Middle East 14.0 30.0 15.0 20.6 5.1 84.6
China 37.8 81.4 40.4 55.9 13.8 229.3India 6.9 14.9 7.4 10.2 2.5 42.0Japan 6.7 14.4 7.2 9.9 2.4 40.5Pacific Rim 31.0 66.8 33.1 45.8 11.4 188.1Other Asia 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 6.4
USA/Canada 18.2 39.2 19.5 26.9 6.6 110.5Latin America 5.4 11.6 5.8 8.0 2.0 32.7
World 164.3 353.9 175.8 242.9 60.2 996.6
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 71
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIES
This section covers pump requirements for construction related sectors,
i.e. industrial and domestic heating and ventilating and construction
dewatering. Also considered are pump requirements for all other
industries. These include coal mining, agriculture and other
manufacturing.
Industrial Buildings
This category was formerly known as building services. It covers pumps
for heating, ventilating, air conditioning and fire services for industrial
and commercial buildings.
Page IV 72 shows two charts: market size (annual average 2014-2016)
and the change in market size 2014-2019.
The largest markets are in West Europe, China and USA/Canada. These
three world regions are also the most important in terms of the change in
market size, where the figures are strongly influenced by the collapse of
property prices and recession.
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 72
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
0 200 400 600 800 1000
West Europe
China
Japan
USA/Canada
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
India
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Russia
Industrial Buildings, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Industrial Buildings, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 73
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Construction Dewatering
Pump requirements are closely related to the size of the construction industry
in each country. This is reflected by the chart below, which shows m arket
size (average for three years 2014-2016).
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
West Europe
China
Japan
USA/Canada
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Latin America
India
Africa
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Russia
Construction, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 74
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Growth for Construction Dewatering
The chart below shows the forecast change in market size for the period
2014-2019. China, West Europe and US/Canada are the main growth
areas.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Construction, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 75
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Residential Buildings and Other Pumps
The category ‘residential buildings’ was formerly known as domestic pumps
for heating, ventilating and air conditioning.
The chart below shows annual average market size 2014-2016.
The market for domestic pumps is concentrated in the West Europe, China,
USA/Canada and Japan.
0 500 1000 1500
West Europe
China
USA/Canada
Japan
Middle East
Pacific Rim
India
Other Asia
Latin America
Other East Europe
Africa
Russia
Residential, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 76
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Change for Residential Buildings and Other Pumps
The chart below shows the change in market size 2014-2019. Growth is
led by West Europe, China, US/Canada and Japan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Residential, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 77
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Other Industries
Pump requirements are related to the size of industrial production. This is
reflected by the chart below, which shows that the largest markets are in
China and the industrialised world.
0 500 1000 1500 2000
West Europe
China
USA/Canada
Pacific Rim
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
India
Africa
Other East Europe
Other Asia
Russia
Other Industry, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 78
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
Market Change for Other Industry
The chart below shows the change in market size 2014-2019. China,
West Europe and USA/Canada outstrip all other countries.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Wes
t Eur
ope
Russia
Other
Eas
t Eur
ope
Africa
Midd
le Eas
t
China
India
Japa
n
Pacific
Rim
Other
Asia
USA/Can
ada
Latin
Am
erica
Other Industry, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 79
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
New Estimates for Construction Dewatering
This year’s report contains new estimates for construction dewatering,
where market size has now been related to value added by the construction
industry in each country. World market size in 2012 remains about the
same but there have been some major reallocations across countries.
China is by far the largest world m arket for construction dewatering. A
comparison between market size in China and the USA is shown below.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
China USA
Market size: Pumps for Construction Dewatering in China and the USA - $ millions
The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 80
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIESPUMP REQUIREMENTS - Annual average 2014-2016
$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates
Other Industry Other Industry Other Industry IndustrialBuildings
ResidentialBuildings
ConstructionDewatering
General Processes Water/Wastewater Total Total Total Total
Germany 79.2 305.4 384.7 354.6 510.8 250.2Other West Europe 227.2 877.4 1106.0 428.0 856.5 288.0
Russia 3.8 13.8 17.4 14.4 16.5 12.9Other East Europe 16.1 62.1 78.2 46.9 42.6 33.0
Africa 20.2 79.6 99.5 80.5 44.3 53.9Middle East 39.7 156.9 197.0 123.8 250.0 89.8
China 225.3 871.1 1096.5 555.4 829.1 511.2India 37.4 144.6 182.0 69.7 117.6 60.0Japan 66.9 259.1 325.9 322.4 453.9 243.9Pacific Rim 111.7 429.7 541.0 217.8 148.3 137.7Other Asia 9.3 36.5 46.0 41.8 74.5 27.7
USA/Canada 179.5 692.9 872.4 337.3 422.3 266.3Latin America 50.3 195.0 245.8 115.0 90.6 83.3
World 1066.5 4124.2 5192.5 2707.6 3856.9 2057.7
The World Market for Pumps - Some Changes in Technology - Page V 1
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
V SOME CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY
Introduction
In this section we will briefly revi ew some changes in technology which
have a major bearing on the pump market and the extent to which we have
been able to take them into account.
Technological change affects the pum p market on both the demand and
supply side. On the dem and side changes in technology influence trends
within each major end use industry. On the supply side new pump designs
and new types of ancillary equipment can have an impact on the market.
Demand Side Technological Change
One of the main merits of our approach to forecasting the pump market is
the sub-division by end use industry. For example, we sub-divide oil and gas
between onshore and offshore. Changes in technology have led to new types
of floating offshore platforms, deeper drilling and subsea developm ent
involving multi-phase pumps. Data on the market for multi-phase pumps is
fragmented and at present we do not identify them separately.
There are also some major technological changes affecting the pump
The World Market for Pumps - Some Changes in Technology - Page V 2
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
market for onshore oil and gas. We include liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the
onshore category and, although we do not identify LNG separately in this
report, other EIF work has been used to ensure that LNG is properly taken into
account in each of the identified 63 countries.
Supply Side Technological Change
Another major technological development concerning oil and gas is fracking,
which in the US has already unlock ed enormous supplies of gas, and,
increasingly oil. Fracking is transfor ming the US econom y but, apart from
Canada, its impact in the rest of the world is minimal at present. Fracking is a
dramatic demonstration of supply si de technological change on the pum p
market. We t ake full account of the im pact of fra cking on the demand for
pumps in oil and gas and chemicals in this report.
Another market segmentation in oil and gas concerns ‘artif icial lift’. We do
touch on this topic where ‘injection pumps’ are mentioned in the report but the
subject matter is broader than this. Howe ver, available data prevents a fuller
analysis. Oil service companies provide artificial lift using pumps where the
natural oil reservoir pressure is in sufficient. We know from examination of
reports and accounts of the major oil se rvice companies that the market for
artificial lift in 2012 was around $11 billion. But th is figure i ncludes much
more than the capital cost of pumps, which is probably only around one third
of the total.
The World Market for Pumps - Some Changes in Technology - Page V 3
© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
A variety of pumps are used for artifi cial lift. Electro-submersible pumps
(ESP) are the most important, accounting for 46% of the market in 2012,
following by rod lift pum ps (nodding donkeys) which account for 31%.
There are indications that in recent years rod lift has improved is market
share at the expense of ESPs.
Finally, a supply side change that will be of growing im portance in future
is the developm ent of energy saving intelligent pumps (ESIPs). One
component of this topic is the growing use of variable speed drives Another
is instrumentation that will allow condition monitoring. The growth of
ESIPs will be important in future but at present there is no data to allow any
assessment of its importance.
World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 1
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
APPENDIX - METHODOLOGY
The flow chart on Page 3 outlines the steps involved.
Historically, pump market estimates are made in two stages. The first stage is
to generate an initial set of pump demand estimates by applying estimated pump
content to fixed investment by 20 separate end use industries. The second stage
involves scaling the initial estimates so that the annual totals are consistent with
apparent pump consumption, calculated from total sales less exports plus
imports. All market sizes given in the report relate to complete pumps,
including prime movers.
Forecasts of the pump market for 2014-2019 are based on regression equations
estimated over the period 2001-2013. Equations are used to link (1) total
investment to GDP and then (2) investment by end use industry to total
investment. The initial forecasts of investment by end use industry are then
modified for special factors. Pump market forecasts are based on regression
equations which link the pump market by end use industry to investment by end
use industry.
Although the composition of demand by application within each end use can be
expected to change over time, we assume the same percentage breakdown from
year to year in the forecasts. This is probably realistic for a five year time
horizon.
World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 2
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
The report is intended to show the detailed structural changes in the world
market for pumps by country, end use industry and pump application.
However, despite the detailed nature of the results, we cannot claim complete
coverage owing to data limitations. Errors are believed to be by omission,
rather than a major bias in the size and structure of the markets. For example,
our coverage of projects in mining is partial because there are known to be a
large number of relatively small projects not taken into account. We do not
properly cover some areas where retrofitting is important, eg pumps for
re-injection in the North Sea. On the other hand we do cover the constant
adaptation of oil refineries to meet new product requirements and emission
control. The table below shows our subjective assessment of the reliability of
results; A = 10%, B = 15%, C = up to 20%.
Oil & Gas A Marine C
Oil Refining A Mining B
Basic Chemicals A Pulp & Paper A
Other Chemicals A Water & Sewerage B
Food B Building Services C
Drink B Construction C
Pharmaceuticals B Other Industry C
Power Generation A Domestic C
Iron & Steel C
Non-ferrous Metals C
Reliability of Total Pump Market Estimates by End Use Industry
World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 3
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014
INVESTMENT FORECASTS
EIF Plant Investment Forecasts for 63Major Countries for 20 End Use
Industries in Each Country
APPLICATION ANALYSIS
EIF Analysis of Requirements forIndustrial Pumps
by End Use and Application
MARKET BY END USE
EIF Estimates for Industrial Pumpsby End Use in 63 Major Countries
MARKET BY APPLICATION
EIF Estimates of Market Size bycountry and application 2014-2019
Harmonisation ofdata on imports ofindustrial pumps
Analysis of Prod-uction, Trade andthe Market based ongovernment data inmajor countries,notably:United StatesGermanyUnited Kingdom
Europump countriesfrom EIF EuropumpMarket Report
METHODOLOGY
EIF new projectdatabase with 3,500projects worldwide,updated annually
EIF database oninvestment by enduse, from companyand governmentstatistics