WORLD PUMP MARKET 2014 - Holland Pomp Group · Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries...

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Transcript of WORLD PUMP MARKET 2014 - Holland Pomp Group · Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries...

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Personal Copy - Not for Distribution

The World Pump Market 2014-2019

Volume I

10 October 2014

support: [email protected]

© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

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I INTRODUCTION

II GLOBAL ISSUES II 1

World Market Forecasts - This Year and Last Year II 1

Relative Pump Market Size: Industrial and Developing Countries II 3

Impact of Prices and Exchange Rates on Market Size and Growth II 5

Pump Market Summary II 7

Pump Market Size by World Region and End Use (table) II 8

Pump Market Size in General Industry and by Product Type (table) II 9

Cyclical Fluctuations in the Pump Market 2005-2019 (charts by world region) II 10-14

Relative Growth: Industrial and Developing Countries by End Use Industry II 15

World Market for Oil & Gas: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 16

World Market for Chemicals: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 17

Power Generation and the Impact of Renewable Energy - chart II 18

World Market for Municipal Water/Wastewater: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 19

World Market for General Industry: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 20

The Market for Complete Pumps & Actuators in 63 Countries II 21

Pump Market in Asia by country II 22

Pump Market in West Europe by country II 23

Pump Market in East Europe by country II 24

Pump Market in Africa & Middle East by country II 25

Pump Market in America by country II 26

Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment II 27

World GDP and Capital Investment (chart), Growth of World Trade in Manufactured Good II 28

Forecast of GDP Growth by Country, annual 2014-2019 II 29

GDP Growth by Country in West Europe (table) II 30

GDP Growth by Country in East Europe (table) II 31

GDP Growth by Country in Africa & Middle East (table) II 32

GDP Growth by Country in Asia (table) II 33

GDP Growth by Country in America (table) II 34

Contents - Volume I - Page 1

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Forecasts for the Growth of Capital Investment in 63 countries II 35

Capital Investment in West Europe by country II 36

Capital Investment in East Europe by country II 37

Capital Investment in Middle East/Africa by country II 39

Capital Investment in Asia Pacific by country II 39

Capital Investment in America by country II 40

Pump Markets in the World's Largest Countries II 41

Key Issues (table) II 41

West Europe (text, chart) II 42

United States (text, chart) II 43

Russia (text, chart) II 44

China (text, chart) II 45

India (text, chart) II 46

Focus on the Pump Market in Japan II 47

Background II 47

Japanese Pump production 2008-2013 II 47-48

Macro-economic prospects for Japan II 49

The Japanese market by end use industry II 49

Complete pump market trends for Japan (chart) II 50

Japanese orders for machinery 2006-2014 II 51-52

Brazil (text, chart) II 48 - 49

Pump Export Summary (text, table) II 54

China as a Supplier II 55

Imports of Complete Pumps by 63 countries, ranked by China's share in 2013 (table) II 56

Imports of Pump Parts by 63 countries, ranked by China's share in 2013 (table) II 57

Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts II 58

The World Pump Market and the Top 25 Pump Companies 2009-2014 (text, table) II 61

Contents - Volume I - Page 2

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III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction III 1

Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region and Product Type III 2

The World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type (chart) III 3

The Market for Pump Parts III 4

Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 5

Complete Pumps by Product Type III 6

Centrifugal Pumps III 7

Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 8

Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 9

Centrifugal Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 10

Reciprocating Pumps III 11

Reciprocating Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 12

Reciprocating Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 13

Reciprocating Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 14

Rotary Pumps III 15

Rotary Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 16

Rotary Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 17

Rotary Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 18

Residential & Other Pumps III 19

Residential & Other Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 20

Contents - Volume I - Page 3

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IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Introduction IV 1

Summary of Pump Market Size by end Use Industry IV 2

The World Pump Market by End Use Industry (table) IV 3

Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry IV 4- IV 10

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps V 11

Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps (chart) IV 12

Market Sizes for Standard Pumps (chart) IV 13

Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps (chart) IV 14

Oil & Gas Production & Refining IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 16

Oil and Gas Production - market size (chart) IV 17

Oil and Gas Production - market change (chart) IV 18

Onshore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 19

Offhore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 20

Oil Refining - market size (chart) IV 21

Oil Refining - market change (chart) IV 22

Oil Refining - Requirements by Application (table) IV 23

Chemical Industry IV 24

Chemical Industry - World Capital Expenditure (chart wth advanced/developing countries 2001-2019)

IV 25

Trends in Capital Expenditure in Basic Chemicals in the Advanced Coutries IV 26

Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 27-IV 28

Basic Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 29

Basic Chemicals - market change (chart) IV 30

Basic Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 31

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 4

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IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Other Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 32

Other Chemicals - market change (chart) IV 33

Other Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 34

Power Generation IV 35

Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 35-IV 36

Power Generation - market size (chart) IV 37

Power Generation - market change (chart) IV 38

Coal/Oil Fired Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 39

Gas Turbine/Combined Cycle Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 40

Nuclear Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 41

Hydroelectric Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 42

Water & Wastewater Treatment IV 43

Water & Wastewater Treatment - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 45-IV 46

Water & Wastewater Treatment - market size (chart) IV 47

Water & Wastewater Treatment - market change (chart) IV 48

Water & Wastewater Treatment - Requirements by World Region (table) IV 49

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 5

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IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

General Industry IV 50

General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 51 - IV 52

Mining (chart on market size) IV 53

World Mining Capital Expenditure (text, chart) IV 54

Mining (chart on change in market size) IV 55

Mining - pump requirements by application IV 56

World Pulp & Paper Capital Expenditure (text, chart) IV 57

Pulp & Paper (charts on market size & growth) IV 58 - IV 59

Pulp & Paper - pump requirements by application IV 60

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals (charts on market size & growth) IV 61 - IV 62

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals - pump requirements by application IV 63

Metal Manufacturing (charts on market size & growth) IV 64 - IV 65

Metal Manufacturing - pump requirements by application IV 66

World Shipbuilding Trends (text, chart) IV 67

Marine (charts on market size & growth) IV 68 - IV 69

Marine - pump requirements by application IV 70

Construction Related and Other Industries IV 71

Industrial Buildings (charts on size & growth) IV 71 -72

Construction Dewatering by World Region (table) IV 73 - IV 74

Residential & Other Pumps (charts on size & growth) IV 75 - IV 76

Other Industries (charts on size & growth) IV 77- IV 78

New estimates for construction dewatering (text, chart for USA & China) IV 79

Construction Related and Other Industries - table IV 80

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 6

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V SOME CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY

Introduction V 1

Demand Side Technological Change V 1

Supply Side Technologicla Change V 2

Appendix - Methodology 1-3

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 7

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 1

I INTRODUCTION

The entire report consists of two separately-bound volumes which together contain

the following sections:

Volume 1 - Overview

Covers macro-economic developments, the pump market by country, market by pump

type, market by world region and end use industry

I Introduction

II Global Issues

III The Market by Product Type

IV The Market by End Use

Volume 2 - Detailed Results by Country

Analysis by Country - market forecasts for 63 countries

Appendix on Methodology

Free Excel Files

Free excel files cover data for the forecast period shown in the report. They are

available following completion of a form guaranteeing no-disclosure to third parties.

Extra Excel Files

These available to purchasers of the full repor t, (i.e Part I plus Part II) at additional

cost. Details on coverage are given at the end of this section.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 2

Coverage of the Report (excludes Minor Countries shown in excel files)

The report has the following coverage:

• Covers 4.8 billion of the 6.5 billion world population

• 63 countries with the highest GDP are separately identified

• 90% of world GDP, 85% of the world pump market

• Pump market coverage for most end uses is around 85% of the world market but: - Mining: around 80% - Water & sewerage: around 80%

• What is provided:

- Forecasts 2014-2019: complete pump market by end use and market size for Centrifugal Reciprocating & Rotary

- Historical data 2010-2013: imports of complete pumps and pump parts by product type

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 3

Status of Annual Data Provided in the Report

Although annual results are prov ided, the purpose is to show structural

change by end use industry, country and world region. The annual figures are

intended to capture the shape of the trade cycle, but th ey should not be

regarded as a reliable shor t-term forecast for 2014/15 in full detail. This is

because actual data ends in 2013 and is subject to revision. Figures for the

current year (2014) are estimated and, from past experience, are subject to

significant revision. Moreover it is not possible to take account of specific

short-term developments affecting each end use in the individual countries.

Major Changes Compared with Last Year’s Report

We have carried out revisions to historical m arket size in 2013 for all

countries, based on a revised analysis of pump production and imports. In

addition, data for mining, construction dewatering and chemicals have been

revised substantially. Data for Japan has been re vised, based on recent

government statistics. Forecast growth rates have also been revised in line

with forecasts for GDP and capital investment in each of the 63 countries.

Historical data 2009-2013 are shown for minor countries in the

supplementary excel files (as outlined on Page I 5).

Attribution and Copyright

This report was prepared by European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (EIF). EIF

retains all copyright in the report, which may not be copied, in whole or in

part, or distributed to any organisatio n, person or com pany other than the

subscriber.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 4

Extra Excel Files (available to purchasers of the full report, i.e Part I and Part II)

These are available at additional cost. The files provide data shown in the report but

also an historical and forecast time series 2001-2019. They also provide a cross-

classification of the market by end use and product type for each of the 63 countries.

The end uses covered are:

OilChemicalsPower GenerationWater & WastewaterGeneral Industry

For each of these end uses, a nd for each country, the pum p market is sub-divided into

the following product types:

Reciprocating - Piston/PlungerReciprocating - OtherReciprocating Pumps

Rotary - GearRotary - VaneRotary - ScrewRotary - OtherRotary Pumps

Centrifugal - Submersible MotorCentrifugal - Single stage, single entry - close coupledCentrifugal - Single stage, single entry - long coupledCentrifugal - Single stage, double suctionCentrifugal - Multistage (exc. submersible & axial/mixed flow)Centrifugal - OtherCentrifugal Pumps

Other Pumps

Total All Pumps

New Extra Excel files for the 2014 Report: please see overleaf

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 5

New Extra Excel Files for the 2014 Report

Data for the following 13 minor countries are included:

AngolaCroatiaCyprusEstoniaGeorgiaJordanKazakhstanLatviaLithuaniaPeruSloveniaSlovakiaUkraine

A summary file shows total market size for each country annually 2009-2013, together

with the CAGR % 2009-2013

A detailed file shows market size for each country annually 2009-2013 subdivided into:

Oil & GasChemicalsPower GenerationWater/WastewaterGeneral Industry

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 1

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

II GLOBAL ISSUES

The growth of China, which averaged over 9% per year for the last two decades, now

seems to have entered a new phase, with underling growth averaging no more than 7.5%

p.a. This may not seem to be a significant difference, but it has a major effect on certain

end use industries, notably m ining and oil and gas. Countries supplying raw materials to

China, notably Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile and South Africa will have to adjust to

a new level of demand. Germany, a major beneficiary of fast growth in China owing to its

dominant position in the supply of capital goods, will also be affected by the slowdown.

On the positive side, a collapse of the Euro - a real possibility last year - appears to have

been averted, at least in the short-term. Some commentators have suggested that world

economic growth is now a thing of the pa st. Although we are m ore optimistic in this

respect, it seems clear that the current weakness in the growth of world trade and GDP

will probably persist for the next 12 months. This is because underlying growth in the

Western world (USA/Canada, West Europe and Japan) was held back by the burden of

accumulated debt.

The forecasts presented in this report reflect expectations that overall world growth will

be relatively slow 2013-2014. Even these c onservative assumptions may prove to be

over-optimistic if there is a further deterioration in the Middle East political situation.

Charts on the next page show annual growth rates and m arket size in the present report,

compared with results from last year. Growth rates are shown in the table below.

This Year Last Year

2013 2.4% 1.5%

2014 2.8% 4.7%

2015 5.1% 6.1%

2016 6.5% 7.1%

2017 7.1% 7.6%

2018 7.8% 8.3%

2019 7.9%

Annual % Change in World Pump Market (includes price inflation)

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 2

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Market for Complete Pumps

World - Annual Growth Rates and Market Size - This Year, Last Year

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

World - All End Uses - Oct 2013 Oct-14

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

World - All End Uses - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 3

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The Relative Growth of Industrial and Developing Countries

Over the twenty years prior to the recession developing country m arkets

for pumps h ave consistently grown faster than those of industrial

countries. Growth was around 9% p.a in developing compared with 6% in

industrial.

Most developing countries experienced recession in 2008-9 owing to

international trade linkages, but m arket decline was generally much less

than in the industrial countries. Ho wever, over the next five years we do

expect that, to a s mall extent, developing countries will improve their

growth rate relative to industrial compared with the last twenty years.

In Asia the growth of China has acted as a catalyst for the whole region.

Growth in Latin America is now expected to be more stable than in the

past. However the recovery of grow th in West Europe, USA/Canada and

Japan is expected to be slower than experienced i n previous recessions

owing to the huge increase in indebtedness as a the result of the financial

crisis.

The growth of the pum p market in industrial and developing countries is

shown on the next page.

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 4

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Pump MarketComplete Pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts

Base data $ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

* West Europe, USA/Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

Relative Pump Market Size: Industrial and Developing Countries$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Industrial Countries* Developing Countries All Countries

$ million $ million $ million$ million 2010 16775 18649 35424

Annual % Growth Rates % % %

2009 % -11.0 -0.5 -6.12010 % -3.5 10.4 3.42011% 10.6 5.2 7.72012% 1.9 7.3 4.72013% 0.5 4.1 2.4Forecast2014 % 2.8 2.8 2.82015% 4.3 5.8 5.12016% 6.1 6.9 6.52017% 7.1 7.1 7.12018% 7.6 7.9 7.82019% 7.8 8.1 7.9

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Total All Pumps - Developing Advanced

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 5

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Impact of Prices and Exchange Rates on Market Size and Growth

Numbers throughout this report are presented in doll ars at current

prices, 2010 exchange rates (i.e. including inflation). This price basis is

the closest we can get to results for individual companies (excluding net

acquisitions and currency change). Market size in 2010, on this basis,

was $35.5 billion, rising to $58.8 billion in 2019, as shown in the table on

the next page.

Market at 2010 Prices, 2010 Exchange Rates

If we adjust for domestic market price changes, but value the market at

constant 2010 $ exchange rates (i.e. excluding inflation), the table on the

next page shows that market size in 2019 is $48.8 billion, compared with

$58.8 billion at current prices.

Market at Current Prices, Current Exchange Rates

If we allow for changes in both domestic prices and dollar exchange

rates, market size in 2019 is estimated at $64.3 billion, compared with

$58.8 billion at current prices, 2010 exchange rates. We expect the dollar

exchange rate to depreciate. The table shows our assumptions about the

dollar exchange rate index 2014-2019.

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 6

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Pump Market Size on Different Price Bases

(1) Constant Prices, Constant Exchange Rates(2) Current Prices, Constant Exchange Rates (basis for this report)(3) Current Prices, Current Exchange Rates

* price basis for EIF Report in 2014 - results include price inflation

EIF reports before 2011 presented results at constant prices (i.e excluding inflation)

1 2 3Market Price Market Dollar Market

$m 2010 prices Index $m current prices * Exchange Rate $m current prices2010 exchange rates 2010=100 2010 exchange rates Index 2010=100 current exchange rates

2005 27789 93.1 25872 96.6 24992

2010 35529 100 35529 100 355292011 37713 101.5 38279 103.8 397332012 38571 103.9 40076 100.9 404362013 39120 104.9 41037 101.6 416932014 39496 106.8 42182 101.2 426882015 40663 109.0 44323 102.8 455642016 42274 111.7 47221 104.4 492992017 44172 114.5 50577 106.0 536112018 46383 117.5 54500 107.7 586962019 48818 120.5 58826 109.3 64296

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 7

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

PUMP MARKET SUMMARY

Forecasts for the pum p market provided in this report are conditional on

macro-economic assumptions and trends in investment discussed later in this

section. Given these assum ptions, pump market forecasts are arrived at by

regression equations linking historical data on the pump market with

historical data on investment in plant and equipment by end use industry.

This section starts by sum marising the pum p market forecasts and then

continues by providing the macro-economic forecasts and some of the trends

in investment by end use industry which helped to determine the pump

market forecasts.

Market size in 2014 is shown on Page II 8-II 9. The overall growth rate

2014-19 is 6.9%, compared with 2.3% 2008-13. The forecast growth rate is

a little faster than the 6% underlying trend growth, which is explained by

catching up from the below trend performance 2008-13.

The pump market in water/wastewater is shown at the foot of the table on the

next page. All water/wastewater (industrial plus m unicipal) accounts for

around 33% of the world pump market in 2014. These figures exclude pumps

for construction dewatering, industrial buildings and residential buildings.

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 8

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Pump Market by Region and End Usecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

1)Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam2) Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand

World Pump Market for Water/Wastewater etccomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

3) Shown as applications in separate industrial end usesNote that construction dewatering, building services and domestic i.e. residential (shownseparately in general industry) are excluded from the above figures for water/wastewater-total

Market by World Region $ million 2014 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2008-2013 2014-2019

Germany 3092 1.7 6.4Other West Europe 6258 0.2 7.2Russia 1483 10.3 6.2Other East Europe 741 -3.6 6.8Africa 1120 3.4 3.3Middle East 3185 2.4 7.4China 8327 6.5 8.2India 1667 0.4 5.3Japan 2627 -4.8 3.9Pacific Rim 1) 3622 9.2 7.1Other Asia 2) 1474 5.8 5.1USA/Canada 6187 -1.6 7.4Latin America 2400 5.6 6.4Total World Market 42182 2.3 6.9

Market by End Use

Oil, Gas, Refining 9044 3.5 6.3Chemicals 4083 -2.0 6.7Power Generation 3111 3.0 8.1Water/Wastewater (Municipal) 4972 2.7 7.4General Industry 21210 2.6 6.9

All Water/Wastewater $ million 2013 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018

Water/Wastewater-Industrial 3) 9066 2.8 6.9Water/Wastewater-Municipal 4972 2.7 7.4Water/Wastewater-Total 14037 2.8 7.1

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 9

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Sub-division of Pump Market in General Industrycomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

World Market by Pump Typecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

Market by Pump Type $ million 2014 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018

Centrifugal 24034 2.4 7.0Reciprocating 6600 2.4 6.6Rotary 3599 1.1 6.7Other 7949 2.7 6.6Total Pump Market 42182 2.3 6.9

General Industry Sub-Division $ million 2014 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2008-2013 2014-2019

Mining 2916 8.8 3.0Food 1416 4.8 8.1Drink 697 2.9 7.7Pharmaceuticals 440 -1.1 3.1Pulp & Paper 881 1.1 6.8Metal Manufacturing 1368 -2.2 7.7Harbours, docks, canals 114 2.0 7.4Shipbuilding 870 0.5 6.9Building Services 2548 1.5 7.1Construction dewatering 1900 2.0 7.2Other Industry 4679 1.8 7.9Domestic 3382 2.7 7.6General Industry Total 21210 2.6 6.9

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 10

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Cyclical Fluctuations in the Pump Market 2005-2019

Charts showing annual changes in the pump market at current prices,

2010 exchange rates are shown on the following pages:

Page II 11: West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan

Page II 12: Russia, Other East Europe, Middle East/Africa

Page II 13: China, India

Page II 14: Pacific Rim, Latin America

All countries/regions were affected by the recession 2009-2011, with

the advanced industrial countries faring the worst.

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The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 11

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Industrial Countries - Pump Market - Annual Volume % Growth Rates

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

WEST EUROPE - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

USA/CANADA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

JAPAN - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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Developing Countries - Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates

-30

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10

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

RUSSIA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

-30

-20

-10

0

10

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30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

OTHER EAST EUROPE - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

MIDDLE EAST - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Developing Countries Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

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35

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

CHINA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

INDIA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Developing Countries Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates

0

5

10

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25

30

35

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

PACIFIC RIM - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

LATIN AMERICA - ALL END USES - Oct 2013 Oct-14

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The Relative Growth of Pump Markets in

Industrial and Developing Countries by End Use Industry

The charts on the next five page show the market size for industrial and

developing countries in oil, chemicals, power, water and general industry.

Markets in developing countries expected to grow faster than in industrial

countries, as in the past. However, since the financial crisis of 2008/9 the

out-performance of growth in developing countrie s relative to industrial

countries has been reduced substantially.

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Market for Oil & GasPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Oil & Gas - Developing Advanced

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World Market for ChemicalsPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Chemicals - Developing Advanced

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Market for Power GenerationPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Power Generation and the Impact of Renewable Energy on the Market forPumps

One reason for the w idening gap in demand between industrial and developing

countries, shown in the chart below, is the importance of wind and solar energy in

industrial countries. Renewable energy has a m uch lower priority in developing

countries.

Wind energy has m inimal demand for pumps. While solar thermal power does have

large pump requirements, photovoltaic accounts for most additions to solar capacity

and this also has m inimal pump requirements. Over the next five years we have

estimated that the switch to renewable energy for new projects wi ll cut world demand

for pumps in power generation by 40% compared with what it would have been had

conventional thermal or nuclear power plants been adopted..

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Power Generation - Developing Advanced

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Market for Municipal Water/WastewaterPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Water - Developing Advanced

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Market for General IndustryPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

General Industry

The chart below shows market size in industrial and developing countries.

General industry includes mining. Last year we made a major revision to market size for

mining, which now includes all m ining and quarrying activities (rather than just metal

mineral processing which was covered in reports before 2012).

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

General Industry - Developing Advanced

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries

The following pages show the market for complete pumps in each of 63

countries. Countries are grouped into world regions as follows:

Asia - Page II 22

West Europe - Page II 23

East Europe - Page II 24

Africa & Middle East - Page II 25

America - Page II 26

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Markets in AsiaComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014

Australia 1333 1324 1338 1415 1539 1694 6.7 4.9

China 8327 8909 9596 10381 11330 12367 6.5 8.2

Hong Kong 297 319 343 371 399 432 7.5 7.7

India 1667 1740 1826 1926 2038 2163 0.4 5.3

Indonesia 585 634 682 687 716 751 13.4 5.1

Japan 2627 2580 2711 2869 3024 3184 -4.8 3.9

Korea - South 946 1005 1085 1179 1268 1364 2.6 7.6

Malaysia 313 334 354 377 402 428 14.2 6.4

New Zealand 39 41 44 47 51 55 -0.2 6.8

Pakistan 101 107 114 123 132 142 -1.3 7.0

Philippines 219 237 253 272 293 314 22.3 7.5

Singapore 271 286 307 330 355 383 7.3 7.2

Taiwan 188 192 197 201 206 210 0.8 2.2

Thailand 426 461 502 558 605 657 10.9 9.1

Vietnam 376 402 430 465 517 574 25.1 8.8

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Markets in West EuropeComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014

Austria 303 319 340 366 396 428 -7.8 7.2Belgium 248 262 280 301 325 351 5.5 7.2Denmark 472 495 528 567 612 660 -0.3 6.9Finland 122 128 136 147 158 170 -5.3 6.9France 954 1004 1074 1154 1246 1344 2.3 7.1Germany 3092 3220 3419 3652 3922 4212 1.7 6.4Greece 59 61 65 69 75 81 -15.8 6.6Ireland 97 99 103 109 116 123 -3.3 5.0Italy 1116 1182 1255 1348 1459 1579 2.2 7.2Netherlands 406 426 448 481 519 560 0.3 6.6Norway 183 192 198 205 214 223 -0.8 4.0Portugal 100 105 115 128 136 146 -5.4 7.8Spain 525 550 587 631 682 737 -1.4 7.0Sweden 452 465 494 530 571 614 1.9 6.3Switzerland 402 413 435 468 507 551 7.5 6.5United Kingdom 819 867 950 1038 1154 1300 -0.2 9.7

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Markets in East EuropeComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014

Bulgaria 65 68 73 78 83 88 4.2 6.5

Czech Republic 91 97 105 116 128 141 1.7 9.1

Hungary 139 145 154 166 178 192 -4.6 6.7

Poland 328 340 359 385 418 453 -5.2 6.6

Romania 118 123 128 136 146 157 -4.3 5.8

Russia 1483 1524 1613 1723 1855 2001 10.3 6.2

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Markets in Africa & Middle East

Complete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014

Algeria 256 287 306 317 332 347 3.4 6.2

Bahrein 24 27 29 30 32 34 7.3 6.9

Egypt 176 161 156 158 166 176 -2.5 0.0

Iran 216 229 239 244 249 254 -1.9 3.3

Iraq 346 377 402 418 437 457 35.0 5.7

Israel 144 160 168 175 183 191 19.0 5.8

Kuwait 110 117 125 132 139 148 -0.5 6.1

Libya 114 112 118 126 139 154 2.2 6.2

Morocco 158 166 172 176 182 187 2.7 3.4

Nigeria 223 233 240 242 245 247 10.9 2.1

Oman 124 136 146 154 164 174 -7.5 7.0

Qatar 111 128 149 174 204 251 -14.8 17.7

South Africa 241 221 223 237 256 277 12.1 2.9

Saudi Arabia 893 982 1080 1137 1197 1261 4.0 7.2

Syria 8 8 10 10 11 11 -27.0 7.0

Tunisia 59 63 66 68 72 76 -0.3 5.2

Turkey 344 362 386 418 453 492 1.0 7.4

UAE 760 824 869 945 1030 1128 2.1 8.2

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Markets in America

Complete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

$million $million $million $million $million $million 2013/2008 2019/2014

Argentina 145 162 171 179 192 207 10.2 7.3

Brazil 1199 1173 1279 1374 1493 1620 4.8 6.2

Canada 1009 1001 1031 1092 1166 1245 3.4 4.3

Chile 173 183 187 201 216 233 10.1 6.1

Colombia 176 197 202 215 231 247 11.1 7.0

Mexico 570 579 619 662 720 788 5.1 6.7

United States 5178 5632 6067 6540 7055 7613 -2.5 8.0

Venezuela 136 144 144 153 165 179 0.5 5.7

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment

The driving forces behind the world economy are the growth of GDP and

capital investment. Capital investment, which is more relevant to the dem and

for pumps, fluctuates much more than GDP.

These fluctuations are shown in the chart on the next page. We expect a steady

recovery in the growth of GDP and capital investment from 2014 onwards.

World trade volume, shown in the table at the foot of the next page, is

expected to resume its trend rate of growth of around 6% per year from 2015

onwards.

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Forecast Volume Growth of OECD Exports of Goods & ServicesPercent per year

Annual % Change in the volume of GDP and Capital Investment - Total for World

Source: IMF, OECD, EIF estimates

Source: OECD, EIF estimates

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

% G

row

th

GDP 1.8 2 2.8 4.2 3.6 4.3 4.3 1.7 -1.9 4.3 3 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2

Investment 0.4 0.1 4.3 6.1 7.6 7.2 6.7 1.5 -10 8.6 4.7 2.7 2.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.4 4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Export Volume -10.8 12.4 6.3 2.6 2.5 4.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Forecasts of GDP Growth by Country

GDP growth in Western industrialised countries is expected to be relatively

slow over the forecast period owing to indebtedness, and this will have some

restraining effect on the growth of developing countries.

Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following

pages:

West Europe - Page II 30

East Europe - Page II 31

Africa & Middle East - Page II 32

Asia - Page II 33

America - Page II 34

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GDP Growth Rates for West Europe (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Austria 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.5Belgium 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 1.3Denmark 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 -0.7 1.7Finland 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 -1.0 1.6France 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.2 1.8Germany 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.4Greece 0.6 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.7 -5.2 3.2Ireland 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 -0.9 2.5Italy 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 -1.5 1.1Netherlands 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 -0.7 1.8Norway 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.8 2.0Portugal 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 -1.4 1.7Spain 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 -1.4 1.1Sweden 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.3 2.5Switzerland 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 2.0United Kingdom 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.1 2.4

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

GDP Growth Rates for East Europe (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Bulgaria 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.8 -0.4 2.9Czech Republic 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 -0.5 2.3Hungary 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 -1.0 1.7Poland 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.7 3.5Romania 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 -0.4 3.2Russia 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.0 2.5

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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GDP Growth Rates for Africa/Middle East (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Algeria 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 2.8 4.3Bahrain 4.9 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.5Egypt 2.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.2 4.0Iran 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.0 2.3Iraq -15.0 -14.0 7.0 12.0 18.0 9.0 7.5 5.8Israel 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4Kuwait 2.4 3.3 2.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 0.7 3.5Libya -8.0 30.0 25.4 9.8 9.9 3.5 -6.0 15.3Morocco 3.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.6 4.1 5.3Nigeria 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.7 7.0 6.8Oman 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.7 3.6 4.7 3.6Qatar 5.9 7.1 7.4 7.2 6.6 6.5 10.7 6.9South Africa 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 1.9 3.0Saudi Arabia 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.5 4.2Syria -25.0 -15.0 5.0 15.0 20.0 10.0 -5.5 6.3Tunisia 2.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 2.1 4.5Turkey 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.4United Arab Emirates 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 1.9 4.1

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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GDP Growth Rates for Asia (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Australia 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.9China 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 8.9 6.8Hong Kong 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 2.7 3.9India 5.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.2 6.6Indonesia 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0Japan 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 1.0Republic of Korea 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 3.8Malaysia 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.2 5.0New Zealand 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.4 2.6Pakistan 3.1 3.7 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 3.2 4.5Philippines 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.3 6.2Singapore 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 5.1 3.7Taiwan 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.3 4.3Thailand 2.5 3.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 2.9 4.5Vietnam 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.9

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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GDP Growth Rates for America (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Argentina 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.9 1.7Brazil 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 2.6 3.1Canada 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.3 2.2Chile 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.4Colombia 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.5Mexico 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 1.5 3.7United States 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.2 2.7Venezuela -0.5 -1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Forecasts for the Growth of Capital Investment

When it comes to forecasting the growth of the pump market, the growth of

capital investment is more relevant than GDP. Consequently, we link our

forecasts for the total market for pumps in each country to our forecasts of

capital investment.

Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following pages:

West Europe - Page II 36

East Europe - Page II 37

Africa & Middle East - Page II 38

Asia - Page II 39

America - Page II 40

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Capital Investment Growth Rates for West Europe (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Austria 3.9 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 -0.7 2.0

Belgium 5.8 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 -3.5 2.8

Denmark 0.9 1.4 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 -5.5 1.8

Finland -1.6 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 -4.4 1.8

France 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 -2.3 2.5

Germany 5.7 2.9 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 -2.0 1.6

Greece -1.6 13.1 11.0 8.5 7.9 5.5 -16.1 9.2

Ireland 6.1 6.1 3.6 5.2 5.6 6.0 -13.1 5.3

Italy 5.5 2.4 4.1 3.8 3.0 3.6 -6.1 3.4

Netherlands 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 -5.2 3.7

Norway 2.7 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.6 3.6

Portugal 3.6 4.6 3.3 5.9 6.5 5.9 -9.0 5.2

Spain -0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 -10.1 1.5

Sweden 6.7 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.2 -0.6 4.7

Switzerland 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.2 0.2 3.2

United Kingdom 6.5 5.5 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.7 -3.2 5.3

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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Capital Investment Growth Rates for East Europe (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Bulgaria 11.6 7.8 8.1 8.2 7.6 7.1 -11.5 7.8

Czech Republic 1.8 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 -5.5 3.1

Hungary 6.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.6 -6.5 4.2

Poland 2.3 6.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 -2.2 5.2

Romania -9.6 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.9 4.5 -6.2 3.9

Russia 1.1 4.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.8 3.7

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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Capital Investment Growth Rates for Middle East/Africa (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Algeria 0.7 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.2 9.6 3.7Bahrain 30.4 1.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 -9.8 3.2Egypt 14.2 -5.3 3.9 5.1 3.6 3.7 -5.8 2.1Iran -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3Iraq -25.0 -15.0 12.0 18.0 22.0 17.0 7.5 9.9Israel 5.1 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.1 2.9 4.8Kuwait 13.4 14.6 8.2 9.5 11.3 10.9 -0.7 10.9Libya 22.5 3.7 6.4 9.0 11.9 3.5 -15.6 6.9Morocco 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.2 5.6 2.2 5.6Nigeria 2.9 7.2 5.4 6.1 6.0 6.0 8.3 6.1Oman 6.3 6.5 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.2 1.0 5.5Qatar 4.1 10.3 11.5 12.9 10.3 10.8 6.7 11.2South Africa 2.7 3.4 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.0 -1.3 4.0Saudi Arabia 6.1 6.4 7.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 6.1 6.7Syria -30.0 -20.0 9.0 17.0 25.0 12.0 -10.1 7.4Tunisia 7.4 8.6 9.5 8.7 7.3 9.3 -0.3 8.7Turkey 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.6 2.8United Arab Emirates 6.1 5.2 4.6 6.2 7.3 6.3 -4.2 5.9

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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Capital Investment Growth Rates for Asia Pacific (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Australia -0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.2 2.2

China 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 10.7 6.0

Hong Kong 3.4 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.4 5.0 3.5

India 5.7 6.7 7.1 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.9

Indonesia 4.5 5.7 5.5 6.5 7.4 5.5 10.0 6.1

Japan 4.3 0.5 -0.6 2.4 2.7 3.5 -1.5 1.7

Republic of Korea 5.0 5.0 3.9 3.3 4.5 4.7 -0.4 4.3

Malaysia 8.5 6.1 5.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 8.6 5.1

New Zealand 8.3 7.1 4.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 -0.5 4.4

Pakistan 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 6.9 -4.8 7.6

Philippines 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 5.4 8.4

Singapore 7.0 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.2 5.6 2.5 5.6

Taiwan 4.0 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 0.2 4.1

Thailand -2.2 1.9 4.3 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.0 3.6

Vietnam 0.3 0.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.6 -1.9 2.5

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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Capital Investment Growth Rates for America (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2013/2008 2019/2014

Argentina -2.5 -0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 4.2 0.8

Brazil 0.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.9 0.1 4.1

Canada 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.5

Chile 2.1 3.7 3.4 4.4 4.5 4.1 2.4 4.0

Colombia 5.8 4.5 5.4 5.1 5.7 5.8 4.8 5.3

Mexico 2.3 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.6 -1.4 6.0

United States 4.6 6.2 6.6 5.5 4.3 3.8 -0.8 5.3

Venezuela -4.0 -4.8 0.4 0.7 1.9 1.9 -1.3 0.0

Source: EIF estimates , IMF

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Pump Markets in the World's largest Countries/Regions

In this section we consid er developments in the world's largest countries by

population and land area, which are summarised in the table below.

Some Key Issues affecting the Largest Countries/Regions

West Europe Slow growth in Euro area and danger of deflation

USA Fracking a ‘game changer’ for the US economy

Japan Recovery uncertain despite new monetary policy

Russia Sanctions and falling oil prices present a problem

China Marked slowdown 2013/4 affects Brazil, Australia etc

India Underlying macro problems have adverse effect on pump market

Brazil Short term setback, but good long term prospects

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Complete Pump Market Trends for West Europe - $ million current prices

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West Europe

The last historical peak in market size was in 2008, and the market declined,

or was more of less static, 2009-2013. A significant recovery is expected

from 2015 onwards, but it should be remembered that the forecasts include

price inflation of around 2.5% per year.

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Complete Pump Market Trends for USA - $m current prices

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United States

Over the forecast period the US market is expect ed to grow stro ngly,

particularly when com pared with historical trends. This is because of the

dramatic growth in oil and gas production as a result of fracking. The US will

become an exporter of liquefied natu ral gas. The US chem ical industry is

expected to expand from 2013 onwards, in stark contrast to the last decade

when stagnation or contraction was th e norm, as a resul t of low gas

feedstock prices. The dire ct effects of buoyancy in oil, gas and chemicals

will have positive indirect effects on the rest of the economy.

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Complete Pump Market Trends for Russia$m current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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Russia

There was a strong growth in t he market 2009-13, largely as a result of high

oil prices. Oil prices are expected to weaken in the short term, but to remain

stable from 2015 onwards. This will support continued market growth, but at

a slower rate than in the past.

Note that we are not making allowance for adverse effects of sanctions on the

economy, so our forecast could be optimistic.

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China

The chart below s ummarises the results. The market grew at an incredible

rate 2002-2011 but growth slowed 2012-13. Recovery is expected from

2014, but growth is expected to be slower than over the last ten years.

Complete Pump Market Trends for China $m current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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India

India experienced very rapid growth 2003-2009, but the market was static or

declining 2010-2013. We expect a resumption of growth from 2014, but at a

moderate rate. The slowdown in growth is the result of a failure to maintain

the liberal planning policy which was evident 2005-2009, combined with

misguided taxation of foreign inward investment.

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Focus on the Pump Market in Japan

Background

Japan is the world’s third largest market and has been subj ect to m ajor

changes in recent years. There has been a long term decline in production in

Japan, partly as a resu lt of the strength of the Yen, combined with the

stagnation of capital investm ent in the domestic economy and with the

expansion of production overseas, notably in China. Prices in Japan have been

in long term decline, a unique feature for an advanced industrial economy.

Pump Production 2008-2013

The table on the next page shows annu al Japanese pump production over the

period 2008-2013. The year 2008 was the last year before the financial crisis,

so that we m ight expect the compound rate of growth 2008-2013 to be

positive, but it proved to be negative. The table shows production value in

yen, in dollars at constant 2010 ex change rates and in dollars at current

exchange rates. Total pump production fell by 4. 28% per year 2008-13 in

national currency (and at constant 2010 exchange rates) and by 3.16% per

year in dollars at current exchange rates. The decline in production was m ost

marked for axial flow pum ps, single stage centrifugal and submersible clean

water pumps. However, production of ‘corrosive material pumps’ (i.e.

chemical process), multistage centrifugal, submersible wastewater pumps and

rotary pumps did not decline.

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currency Year Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump Pump PumpIndustry Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments Shipments

Production Single stage Multistage Axial Household Corrosive Submersible Submersible RotaryCentrifugal Centrifugal Flow Pumps Material Pumps Wastewater Clean Water Pumps

Million Yen 2008 590930 79623 69019 47000 19301 40200 19000 7200 8800Million Yen 2009 552602 76785 55463 45195 11668 35041 18253 6765 7970Million Yen 2010 515389 69615 57557 38492 13036 37965 18349 5394 6882Million Yen 2011 462801 58444 60811 28744 18917 43093 18966 5667 7427Million Yen 2012 477540 64779 67842 24112 15980 41947 18328 5876 10383Million Yen 2013 474871 62114 69773 26021 16200 40639 19031 5657 8634

Million Yen cagr 2008-13 -4.28 -4.8 0.2 -11.1 -3.4 0.2 0.03 -4.71 -0.3

Dollars 2010* 2008 6479.5 873. 756. 515. 211. 440. 208.3 78.9 96.Dollars 2010* 2009 6059.2 841. 608. 495. 127. 384. 200.1 74.2 87.Dollars 2010* 2010 5651.2 763. 631. 422. 142. 416. 201.2 59.1 75.Dollars 2010* 2011 5074.6 640. 666. 315. 207. 472. 208.0 62.1 81.Dollars 2010* 2012 5236.2 710. 743. 264. 175. 459. 201.0 64.4 113.Dollars 2010* 2013 5206.9 681. 765. 285. 177. 445. 208.7 62.0 94.

Dollars 2010* cagr 2008-13 -4.28 -4.8 0.2 -11.1 -3.4 0.2 0.03 -4.71 -0.3

Million Dollars 2008 5491.9 740. 641. 436. 179. 373. 176.6 66.9 81.Million Dollars 2009 5679.4 789. 570. 464. 119. 360. 187.6 69.5 81.Million Dollars 2010 5651.2 763. 631. 422. 142. 416. 201.2 59.1 75.Million Dollars 2011 5582.6 705. 733. 346. 228. 519. 228.8 68.4 89.Million Dollars 2012 5753.5 780. 817. 290. 192. 505. 220.8 70.8 125.Million Dollars 2013 4678.5 612. 687. 256. 159. 400. 187.5 55.7 85.

Million Dollars cagr 2008-13 -3.16 -3.7 1.4 -10.1 -2.3 1.4 1.21 -3.60 0.9

Japanese Pump Production 2008-2013

Source: Meti, EIF estimates

* Million dollars at constant 2010 exchange rates

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Macro-Economic Prospects for Japan

Stagnation of the economy over the last twenty years has been attributed to

the more or less constant tendency for declining prices, to which reference

has already been made. The new goverment led by Prime Minister Shinzo

Abe was determined to break this trend by a huge expansion of the money

supply. Initially this seemed to work as the Japanese stock m arket surged.

But recently it appears that the policy has not been successful and economic

growth remains stagnant or declining.

The OCED (May 2014) recommends that The Bank of Japan's “quantitative

and qualitative monetary easing” should continue until the inflation target of

2% has been sustainably achieved. Although the OCED assumes inflation

will reach 2% by 2015, economic growth is expected to be no more than 1%

per year, which is certainly not a break with past performance.

The Market by End Use Industry

The Tsunami of March 2011, and cons equent earthquake, has had several

major effects on the st ructure of pump demand. Nuclear power accounted

for 26% of electricity production. Several nuclear power plants were

destroyed and the remainder were sh ut down. Widespr ead opposition for

nuclear power is preventing the reopening of existing plants and the

construction of new nuclear plants. Imports of LNG have surged.

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The government wants to resume the use of nuclear energy with necessary safety

measures. The first nuclear plant is expected to restart in autumn 2014 and 17 others

are expected to follow.

Post-Fukushima, a m ajority of the lost nuclear generation was substituted by

natural gas-fired power plants. The num ber of natural gas-fired power stations is

increasing in Japan, with at least 7 GW of capacity from combined cycle units

expected to come online by 2016.

Wind, solar, and tidal power are being actively pursued in the country and installed

capacity from these sources increased in recent years to over 4 GW in 2011, up from

0.8 GW in 2004. However, these sources cont inue to account for a relatively small

share of generation at this ti me. Most of the growth of renewables in the past year

has occurred in solar energy as a result of heavy investment for large-scale PV units.

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Japanese Orders for Machinery 2006-2014

The table on the next page shows Japane se orders for machinery by end use

industry. Most of the m ain pump-using industries registered a decline in

orders over the period 2008-2013, consistent with the fall in pump production

by product that was considered earlier. Orders for food fell by 1.8% per year,

orders for chemicals fell by 4.4%, refining by 4.3%, metals by 14.2%, and

shipbuilding by 15.3% per year. Non-manufacturing fared better, with

agriculture growing by 4. 1%, mining by 6.4% , construction by 6% and

electricity by 0.2%. In the case of electricity orders fell by 30% in 2012, the

year of the Fukushima disaster, and by a further 4% in 2013. Our forecast for

orders in 2014, however indicates a growth of 31% for electricity.

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Total Manufacturing Food Pulp &Paper

Chemicals Refining Metals Shipbuilding Other Manfg

2006 142554 64086 1220 1282 4905 1727 2850 2658 494442007 137794 61675 1330 779 4463 2280 3226 3012 465852008 134865 55748 1295 594 3703 1344 3856 3578 413782009 103492 32133 1186 407 2832 645 2524 2145 223942010 111899 39070 1119 495 2855 645 2383 2355 292192011 120739 43133 1148 404 3385 712 2549 2145 327912012 113862 40123 1139 485 3469 724 1950 1830 305272013 120170 40415 1181 786 2951 1080 1789 1560 31069Forecast 2014 134215 45823 1065 604 3130 576 2161 2125 36163

cagr 2008-13 -2.3 -6.2 -1.8 5.7 -4.4 -4.3 -14.2 -15.3 -5.6

Total Non-Manufacturing

Agriculture Mining Construction Electricity

2006 78468 4961 250 5160 133032007 76119 4717 356 5564 133872008 79117 4757 200 4732 156572009 71359 4764 137 2940 185112010 72830 4639 191 3483 198482011 77606 4997 246 4293 231302012 73740 5079 269 4861 163662013 79755 5819 273 6335 15822Forecast 2014 88393 5908 281 6345 20733

cagr 2008-13 0.2 4.1 6.4 6 0.2

Source: Japanese Cabinet Office, EIF estimates

Japanese Orders for Machinery

$ million at constant 2010 exchange rates

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The Pump Market in Brazil

The market in Brazil has been tran sformed by effective macro-economic

policies combined with strong growth of m ineral resources, particularly oil

and gas. But the period 2011-2013 saw a slowdown in growth. A strong

recovery is expected from 2016 onwards, led by the oil and gas sector but

supported by a recovery in demand from mining.

Complete Pump Market Trends for Brazil

$m current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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Pump Export Summary

The detailed tables in Volume II identify imports of pumps into 63 countries

supplied by exports from the EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China. The

table below summarises exports by supplier in 2013.

World Pump Exports in 2013$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates (or CAGR)

Pump SupplierComplete

pumpsPumpParts

TotalExports

Total2013/2007% CAGR

EU (15 countries) 11196 6071 17267 0.8

USA 3581 1353 4934 5.4

Japan 1503 1257 2760 -0.5

China 8479 2673 11153 21.6

Total identified 24759 11354 36114 5.4

Chinese exports grew by 21.6% per year 2007-2013, compared with 0.8%

for the EU (15 countrie s). USA exports grew by 5.4% p.a. and Japanese

by -0.5% p.a. Chinese export growt h is clearly at the expense of export

growth by the major industrial countries.

Parts accounted for 24% of Chinese exports in 2013, compared with 35%

for the EU, 29% for USA and 45% for Japan.

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China as a Supplier of Complete Pumps (see Page II 52)

(figures at current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

In 2012 exports of complete pumps by China accounted for 19.5% of the

combined export by EU (15 countrie s), USA, Japan and Chi na, compared

with 18.4% in 2012. In 2003 the Chinese market share was only 3.9%. In the

large pump markets, the Chinese import market share in 2013 was above

average in Vietnam (80%), Indonesia (56%), Japan (50%), India (42%),

USA (42%).

China as a Supplier of Pump Parts ( see Page II 53)

China accounted for 13% of imports of pump parts in 2013, compared with

12.3% in 2012 (3.4% in 2003). Above average import market shares were in

Japan (60%), USA (35%) and Italy (21%).

Significance of China as a Supplier

At present most of the exports by Chin a are probably directly or indirectly

controlled by Western pump manufacturers, either through joint ventures or

as distributors. This can be expected to change in the future as more

independent Chinese pum p manufacturers develop export markets. Even

today, however, the significance of China as a pump exporter is under-

represented in volume terms by the fi gures quoted above, which relate to

percent shares of dollar values. This is because Chinese export prices are

probably only 50% of Western prices for similar products.

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ALLSUPPLIERS

2013$ MILLION

CHINA2013

$ MILLION

CHINA2011

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2012

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2013

PERCENTSHARE

Syria 10.3 8.4 42.1 54.2 82.1Vietnam 283.4 228.1 62.9 61.4 80.5Pakistan 76.4 50.7 66.7 59.4 66.4Iran 195.5 118.8 28.6 43.9 60.8Nigeria 159.7 96.3 53.6 54 60.3Indonesia 441.4 247.7 64 65.1 56.1Hong Kong 219.1 110.7 47 48.3 50.5Japan 296.9 147.9 52.4 52 49.8United States 1595.1 677.3 44.4 41.8 42.5India 398.6 168.9 34.2 40.6 42.4Malaysia 229.7 89 36.1 32.1 38.7Thailand 320 120.8 40 38.7 37.8Iraq 241.1 74.8 36 32.7 31Brazil 349.5 96.4 26.9 28.4 27.6Taiwan 144.9 39.7 26.7 25.3 27.4UAE 530.8 142.9 18.4 17.9 26.9Philippines 165.5 41.1 33.6 30.6 24.8Libya 97.3 22.7 29.6 29.5 23.3Australia 310.6 70.1 23.9 21.3 22.6Egypt 169.2 36.7 15.1 17.7 21.7Argentina 104.5 22.1 22.1 17.9 21.2Venezuela 103 21.8 29.6 27.8 21.1Turkey 451.7 93.2 16.7 20.5 20.6WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 20220.9 3940.1 18.2 18.4 19.5New Zealand 31 6.1 15.9 16.6 19.5South Africa 179.9 34.5 14.8 19.6 19.2Mexico 480.8 90.8 14.8 16.1 18.9Russia 1069.6 199.3 17.7 17 18.6Romania 87.5 15.5 14.5 15.7 17.7Algeria 177.1 29.5 11.6 19.5 16.6Finland 137.4 22.1 16.1 16.2 16.1Greece 49.4 7.4 8.6 11.1 15.1Italy 521.9 78.2 14.5 14.4 15Poland 343.4 50.6 12.4 12.5 14.7Chile 132 18.8 14.1 13.6 14.2Germany 1183.6 149.2 13.2 11.2 12.6Singapore 466.3 55.3 15.8 12.8 11.9Colombia 127.7 14 11.2 13.3 11Morocco 122.9 13.4 12.2 12.3 10.9United Kingdom 588.4 59.6 10.9 10.3 10.1Korea - South 837.4 79.5 13.8 12.1 9.5Portugal 73.3 6.8 6.1 9 9.3Tunisia 43.8 4 6 10.5 9.2Israel 104.3 9.5 7 5.4 9.1Spain 295 25.1 6.7 7 8.5Czech Republic 135.3 10.8 5.6 6 8Belgium 326.3 22.4 6.2 5.5 6.9Netherlands 423.2 28 8.3 7.4 6.6Kuwait 79.3 5 3.5 3.2 6.3Bulgaria 44.9 2.8 6.8 10.8 6.2Denmark 172.1 9.8 5.5 6.4 5.7France 854.5 47.2 5.3 5.5 5.5Canada 1018.2 55.4 5.4 5 5.4Saudi Arabia 651.2 32.9 8.6 5.2 5.1Oman 88.8 4.4 10.6 7.1 4.9Sweden 220.9 9.1 4.3 4.5 4.1Hungary 106 4.4 4.2 3.7 4.1Bahrein 16.9 0.7 2.4 3.9 3.9Austria 205.3 6.2 4.1 4.2 3Ireland 68.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.3Qatar 101 1.3 2.2 2.8 1.3Switzerland 234.5 1.8 0.6 1.2 0.8Norway 179.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4

Imports of Complete Pumps, Ranked by China's share in 2013

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ALLSUPPLIERS

2013$ MILLION

CHINA2013

$ MILLION

CHINA2011

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2012

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2013

PERCENTSHARE

Japan 168.4 100.4 53.8 56.6 59.6Iran 26.4 12.9 16.7 30.9 49Indonesia 97.4 47.1 43.2 51.1 48.4Syria 1.3 0.6 31.4 39 46Hong Kong 57.6 23.8 31.4 32.3 41.3United States 1401 497.5 33.3 34.3 35.5Vietnam 22.8 6.6 21.8 16.5 28.7Russia 223.6 56.8 24.3 23.1 25.4Malaysia 61.3 14.5 7.4 15.5 23.6Italy 274.4 59.5 17.7 20.5 21.7Argentina 44.7 7.6 16.5 18.5 17.1Taiwan 100.8 16 24.7 17.8 15.8Ireland 32.9 5.2 15 16.6 15.7Finland 60.9 9.4 11.8 17 15.5Korea - South 261.9 40.3 8.3 14.1 15.4India 169.8 25.8 10.3 10.5 15.2Denmark 93 13.7 15.6 15.1 14.7Pakistan 19.4 2.7 17 30.1 14.2Spain 177.6 23.7 7.3 12.9 13.3WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 9979.6 1299.4 10.7 12.3 13Australia 154.3 20 15.2 15.2 13Iraq 58.7 7.3 5.9 6.2 12.4Singapore 188.3 19.4 7.4 8.7 10.3Philippines 34 3 11.5 8.5 8.8Canada 590.5 51.7 7.1 7.7 8.8Germany 646 54.6 6.6 7.8 8.4South Africa 106.4 8.9 8.4 9.2 8.3Mexico 218.9 17.8 4.8 8.1 8.1United Kingdom 279.6 21.4 5.1 5.4 7.7UAE 148.4 10.5 7.5 7.5 7.1Sweden 97.8 6.8 4.3 5.7 7Colombia 43.3 2.9 5.3 9.1 6.8Israel 26.8 1.8 2.5 2.7 6.7Netherlands 259.9 15.8 4.4 6.4 6.1Brazil 153.7 9.2 6.2 6.6 6Egypt 65.3 3.6 4 5.9 5.6Chile 62.2 3.4 4.3 5.7 5.5Libya 33 1.8 5.2 5.1 5.4Saudi Arabia 206.9 10.5 6.6 6.9 5.1Thailand 223.6 11.2 2.1 3.4 5Nigeria 33.2 1.6 2.5 2.8 4.8Hungary 210.2 9.5 3.6 4.1 4.5Belgium 130.3 5.4 3.5 5.1 4.2Turkey 149.2 6.2 2.9 3.8 4.1New Zealand 12.9 0.5 6.2 4.8 3.9Kuwait 27.3 1 1.9 3.4 3.7Poland 134.3 4.8 2.4 2.7 3.6Austria 125.3 4 3.7 6.3 3.2Venezuela 124.8 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.7Greece 22 0.6 1 1.5 2.6France 408 10.7 2.2 2.6 2.6Algeria 55 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.6Oman 33 0.6 5.7 3.9 2Morocco 42.8 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.3Tunisia 13.9 0.2 1.6 0 1.1Romania 60.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1Portugal 31.7 0.4 0.6 0 1.1Switzerland 96.4 1 0.9 1.3 1Qatar 45.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.8Bahrein 19.1 0.1 0.6 0 0.4

Imports of Pump Parts, Ranked by China's share in 2013

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Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts

There are many uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. The following notes

attempt to place these into perspective. There are four main issues:

a) Data problems affecting historical measurement of market size

b) Macro-economic issues

c) Issues affecting specific industries

d) Issues affecting particular countries

Data Problems

Analysis of the pump market depends to a large extent on the proper

measurement of trends and cycles of fixed investment by end use industry.

Detailed notes on our methodology are given in the Appendix. The main

difficulty we have is that historical investment data based on government

statistics (the most reliable source) is usually two years out of date, and is

also subject to large revisions. The la st complete data relates to the year

2013. Figures on fixed investment by end use industry for the year 2013 are

our estimates, while for 2014 onward s the figures are our forecasts. We

bridge the gap by detailed analysis of investment in major projects, but there

are difficulties here arising from the time-phasing of each project.

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Macro-Economic Issues

The main uncertainty is whether the recovery from recession will be

sustained. Very recent trends (October 2014) are not encouraging, but it is

too soon to draw firm conclusions. The Japanese monetary policy

experiment does not appear to be leading to sustained growth. There is a

major issue concerning price deflation in the Euro area, which will require

very positive action by the ECB (which may not be supported by

Germany). Deflation would result in ever-mounting debt and a probable

collapse of the Euro currency. The slowdown of growth in China

compounds the problem of slow growth in the West.

Issues Affecting Specific Industries

Although oil prices have faltered in recent months, we expect stability over

the next five years, rather than the dramatic collapse forecast by some

commentators. Capital investment by the world-wide mining industry is

still falling and is not likely torecover before year 2017.

The enormous success of fracking in the US, and the consequent expansion

of investment in petr ochemicals, will have a very negative effect on

petrochemicals investment in West Europe.

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Issues Affecting Particular Countries

China

The future annual time path of the Chinese pump market (and the Chinese

economy as a whole) is one of the most uncertain features of the forecast. It

is clear that investment growth in China has been excessive in the last ten

years (averaging over 20% a year, co mpared with under 10% a year for

GDP) - this divergence in growth ra tes cannot persist forever. Moreover,

we doubt the credibility of official Chinese government statistics on capital

investment. A slowdown in Chinese GDP growth is now evident. But the

expected switch in the composition of demand away from investment and

exports in favour of consumer spending is not yet apparent.

Japan

Prospects for pump market growth in Japan are still subject to considerable

uncertainty because macro-economic prospects are difficult to predict. A

continuation of deflation is probable, with attendant econom ic stagnation.

As a result, markets for pumps in power generation and other infrastructure

will be depressed, as over the last decade. There is particular uncertainty

over future investment in nuclear power.

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The World Pump Market and the Top 25 Pump Companies

The top 25 pum p companies account for ar ound 65% of the world pump market. The

world pump market identified in this re port amounted to $35.5 billion in 2010, but this

excludes parts and accessories, installation and afterm arket services included in pum p

company sales, which amount to a further $5 billion, making a total of over $40 billion.

This is on a narrow definition of the pump market. A wider definition, which included the

value of pum p installation and afterm arket services carried out by plant owners and

contractors, would increase market size to $53 billion in 2010.

It is sometimes difficult to disentangle pump sales from total sales of companies who

supply more than pumps. Our estimates are shown below.

EIF Estimates of Pump Sales of the Top 25 Pump Companies $ million, current prices (includes acquisitions and currency changes)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.2014ALFA LAVAL 158 180 223 216 240 797COLFAX 419 433 553 599 621 639DOVER CORPORATION 291 256 305 368 406 425EBARA 1721 1716 1828 1802 1600 1724FLOWSERVE 2708 2389 2581 2708 2792 2809FMC TECHNOLOGIES 103 114 157 192 217 243GARDNER-DENVER 604 636 892 850 594 600GE OIL & GAS 100 100 900 950 1100 1650GRUNDFOS 3182 3487 3941 3840 3987 4126HMS GROUP 191 339 511 526 531 569IDEX 641 731 817 833 872 854ITT INDUSTRIAL PROCESS 719 694 767 956 1107 1190KSB PUMP 1813 1768 1959 1875 1949 1813KUBOTA 509 492 560 616 557 638LUFKIN 188 254 404 506 597 685NATIONAL OILWELL VARCO 391 408 745 1198 1293 1337PENTAIR 924 1021 1140 1320 1346 1251ROPER INDUSTRIES 422 486 590 636 623 660SPIRAX SARCO 131 159 192 199 206 215SPX FLOW TECHNOLOGY 980 997 1225 1609 1583 1567SULZER 1706 1511 1894 2149 2128 2168TOROSHIMA PUMP 480 568 560 554 453 483WEIR GROUP 1708 2022 2969 3249 3068 3219WILO 1290 1359 1489 1467 1571 1660XYLEM 2849 3202 3803 3791 3837 3940TOTAL IDENTIFIED 24228 25322 31005 33009 33278 35262

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The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 1

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction

The pump market by product type is conventionally analysed by a technical

classification which distinguishes product groups, such as c entrifugal,

reciprocating or rotary, and by sub-divisions within these groups. These are the

classifications provided by official government statistics and are the subject of

this section.

The technical classification, while useful and also relevant to production

economics, does not provide insight in to the pump market by end use. This is

because a pump described with a technical classification can be used in end use

industries with markedly different economic prospects. For example,

submersible pumps are used mainly by the water and sewerage industry and in

construction dewatering, end uses which can have markedly different trends.

An alternative approach to pum p market segmentation by product type is to

consider pump demand by application within each end use industry, which is

the subject of Section IV. This alternative approach has more bearing on pump

marketing than the technical classification. Within the pump industry the terms

'standard', 'engineered' and 'special purpose' pumps are commonly used, but

have no basis in official governm ent statistics. Section IV shows how these

terms can be related to pump demand by end use industry.

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Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region

and Product Type

The market forecasts provided in this report relate to complete pumps,

including prime movers, excluding parts. The valuation is at ex-factory cost,

so that costs of pump installation are excluded.

The chart on the next page sum marises the forecasts by product type.

Centrifugal pumps are, of course, the largest pump type, followed by

reciprocating and rotary.

The choice of pump type depends on the pump application, which in turn

depends on the end use industry, but most pump types are used in most end

use industries. Consequent ly, growth rates for the different pump types are

fairly similar at the broad level of aggregation shown in the chart . There are

trends involving some substitution between pump types in certain

applications and also within pump types in the same application. Examples

within centrifugal are subm ersible versus end suction pumps, and within

rotary peristaltic versus other rotary pumps. Technological change als o

affects demand by pump type by changing pump applications: environmental

investment being a good example.

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World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Method of Estimating the Market by Product Type

For the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA and Japan the

historical sub-division by pump type is based on the composition of production

and imports. For developing countries the sub-division is based on the

composition of imports alone. This appr oach allows som e further historical

sub-division of centrifugal, reciprocating and rotary pump markets. The

forecasts are based on the projected market by end use, coupled with a rough

allocation of the demand by pump type across different end uses.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Centrifugal Reciprocating Rotary Domestic/other

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The Market for Pump Parts

We do not include parts in the market forecasts because factors governing the

aftermarket are complex and forecasts require quite different methods

compared with forecasts for complete pumps.

The data on pump parts for the major industrial countries, in particular,

should be treated with caution. This is because largely complete pumps may

be imported, although they may be classified as parts.

The table on the next page shows im ports of pump parts in 2013 ranked by

country within each world region, to gether with t he compound average

annual percentage growth rate (CAGR) 2013/2010.

In many cases the recession in 2009 resulted in declines in the m arket

average 2008-11, particularly in West Europe and the USA. We might expect

the parts market to be more stable than the market for complete pumps in a

recession, but this was not the case

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Imports of Pump Parts - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR %

$ million2013

CAGR%2010-13

$ million2013

CAGR%2010-13

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST cont

Germany 686 1.5 Oman 36 1.2France 436 1.7 Nigeria 36 4.1United Kingdom 298 -2 Libya 35 -2.9Italy 292 -1.5 Kuwait 29 2.1Netherlands 276 4.4 Israel 29 1.9Spain 190 0.5 Iran 28 -26.8Belgium 139 -1 Bahrein 21 -2.5Austria 134 1.7 Tunisia 15 -14.8Norway 114 13.6 Syria 1 -52.3Sweden 105 0.1Switzerland 103 7.7Denmark 99 8.5 ASIAFinland 65 0.6Ireland 35 2.5 China 668 0.5Portugal 34 -0.9 Korea - South 275 9.6Greece 23 -13.4 Thailand 226 13

Singapore 200 2.8EAST EUROPE India 179 -3.7

Japan 178 -13.1Czech Republic 563 17.1 Australia 165 6.1Russia 238 27.3 Taiwan 107 7.6Hungary 220 8.6 Indonesia 102 25.2Poland 144 6.9 Malaysia 65 16Romania 65 -7.6 Hong Kong 61 12.6Bulgaria 43 9.5 Philippines 36 8.8

Vietnam 24 23.1AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 21 -4.4

New Zealand 14 11.4Saudi Arabia 220 8.2Turkey 159 11.1UAE 158 10.8 AMERICASouth Africa 114 16.8Egypt 70 -5 United States 1466 14.9Iraq 62 38.9 Canada 642 0Algeria 59 4.8 Mexico 235 -12Qatar 48 5.3 Brazil 164 -2Morocco 46 23.9 Venezuela 136 18.4

Chile 67 2.4Argentina 48 5.3

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Complete Pumps by Product Type

The proportion of pum ps used in the different end use industries largely

determines the variation in dem and for pumps of different types. This is

because we do not believe that there is signif icant substitution between

different pump types (at the level of detail presented in this report), within a

particular end use. There are, however, major variations in the types of

pump used in the different end use industries, and demand trends can differ

significantly between industries. Moreover, the relative importance of

different industries varies markedly from country to country. Consequently,

the extent of sub-division of demand between different end uses is an

important part of market analysis, and this is discussed in detail in Section

IV.

Estimation Methods for the Pump Market by Product Type

We estimate the market by product type in each country by considering the

share of each product type in production and im ports. This does not tell us

the product market size by end use in dustry, so we estimate this by

simulation, given our historical data and forecasts by end use (discussed in

Section IV), combined with the product composition of production and

imports. Full details of the cross-classification by country, end use industry

and product type are provided in a suppl ementary Excel file (available, at

extra cost, to purchasers of the full World Pump Market Report).

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Centrifugal Pumps

The market for centrifugal pumps totals around $25bn. These pumps are used

by all industries; Page III 8 shows that oil, gas, chemicals and power together

account for around 40% of the total.

The table on Page III 9 ra nks market size by region for 63 countries. The

largest markets are in the advanced i ndustrial countries of West Europe,

USA, Canada, Japan, plus China, India, South Korea, Mexico and Russia.

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Centrifugal Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

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15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

West Europe East Europe Middle East/Africa Asia/Pacific America

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2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcontinued

Germany 2069 6.3 South Africa 87 3.0France 843 7.1 Kuwait 74 6.2United Kingdom 635 9.9 Libya 73 6.5Italy 481 7.3 Israel 73 5.8Denmark 449 7.0 Morocco 52 3.3Spain 305 6.9 Oman 37 6.5Sweden 281 6.4 Tunisia 20 5.4Switzerland 224 6.5 Bahrein 19 7.1Netherlands 219 6.6 Syria 4 4.0Belgium 179 7.1Austria 161 7.1Norway 103 4.2 ASIAFinland 88 6.8Ireland 66 4.9 China 5170 8.4Portugal 41 7.8 Japan 1214 4.3Greece 26 6.1 India 967 5.7

Australia 533 3.6EAST EUROPE Korea - South 520 7.2

Indonesia 297 5.2Russia 1168 6.4 Thailand 228 8.9Poland 197 6.5 Malaysia 162 6.6Hungary 105 6.7 Vietnam 155 8.7Czech Republic 72 9.2 Singapore 136 6.8Romania 62 5.8 Philippines 129 7.3Bulgaria 56 6.8 Taiwan 103 2.4

Pakistan 66 6.6AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 53 7.2

New Zealand 16 6.8Saudi Arabia 693 7.2UAE 392 9.2Turkey 219 7.5 AMERICANigeria 163 2.0Iraq 161 5.7 United States 2688 7.9Iran 153 3.6 Canada 488 4.7Algeria 113 6.4 Brazil 285 5.9Qatar 93 18.1 Mexico 199 6.4Egypt 92 -0.3 Chile 85 6.1

Colombia 73 6.5Venezuela 64 4.1Argentina 56 7.1

Centrifugal Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries

$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates

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Further Sub-division of Centrifugal Pumps

The table below provides some further sub-division of the centrifugal pump

market. The forecasts assume that the end use com position of dem and by

product type is unchanged from the level in 2013. The growth therefore

depends on the forecasts by end use.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

Centrifugal - Submersible Motor 3999 4170 4454 4783 5160 5570 2.8 6.9

Centrifugal - Single stage, single entry -close coupled

2451 2615 2791 2984 3204 3436 0 7

Centrifugal - Single stage, single entry -long coupled

2951 3106 3319 3567 3859 4188 2.7 7.3

Centrifugal - Single stage, double suction 786 835 867 927 998 1081 5.7 6.6

Centrifugal - Multistage (exc. submersible& axial/mixed flow)

4858 5147 5474 5847 6279 6776 2.9 6.9

Centrifugal - Other 8997 9428 10119 10883 11767 12728 2.3 7.2

Centrifugal Pumps 24035 25293 27021 28985 31260 33773 2.4 7

World Centrifugal Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Reciprocating Pumps

The market for reciprocating pumps amounts to around $6 billion. Page III

12 shows that 67% of dem and arises in West Europe, USA/Canada and

Japan (about the same percent as centrifugal). Oil and ga s, chemicals, and

pulp and paper account for 43% of total demand.

The table on Page III 13 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The

largest markets are USA, China, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Canada.

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Reciprocating Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

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7000

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2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil

0

1000

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7000

8000

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2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

West Europe East Europe Middle East/Africa Asia/Pacific America

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2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont

Germany 258 5.7 Turkey 19 8.3United Kingdom 62 9.0 Israel 17 6.5Italy 61 2.5 Libya 13 7.0Netherlands 46 5.0 Qatar 12 18.9France 42 6.2 Tunisia 9 7.2Norway 32 1.8 Kuwait 6 7.5Sweden 27 6.0 Bahrein 4 5.8Austria 22 6.9 Morocco 2 3.5Switzerland 18 6.7Spain 14 5.1Belgium 14 6.8Portugal 8 7.7 ASIADenmark 7 6.7Ireland 6 6.6 China 853 5.8Greece 2 5.5 Australia 427 8.3Finland 1 6.3 India 207 4.6

Japan 183 2.7EAST EUROPE Korea - South 130 7.6

Indonesia 124 4.1Russia 144 5.8 Vietnam 115 9.6Poland 24 6.3 Malaysia 111 5.8Hungary 16 6.7 Thailand 95 10.1Romania 9 6.1 Singapore 86 7.4Czech Republic 6 8.8 Philippines 55 8.0Bulgaria 2 4.0 Taiwan 50 2.3

Hong Kong 25 7.4AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 15 7.5

New Zealand 4 7.8UAE 172 8.6Iraq 150 5.6Algeria 89 6.3 AMERICASaudi Arabia 78 6.9South Africa 70 2.1 United States 1345 8.2Oman 67 7.3 Brazil 403 6.8Nigeria 31 1.0 Canada 336 3.4Iran 26 4.1 Mexico 219 7.2Egypt 20 -0.2 Colombia 80 7.6

Venezuela 61 7.5Argentina 49 7.9Chile 22 7.3

Reciprocating Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries

$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates

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Further Sub-division of Reciprocating Pumps

The table shows sim ilar growth rate s for piston and other reciprocating

pumps.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR%

CAGR%

2008-13 2014-19

Reciprocating - Piston/Plunger 1980 2126 2222 2361 2534 2733 0.5 6.7

Reciprocating - Other 4623 4840 5113 5464 5892 6372 3.2 6.6

Reciprocating Pumps 6601 6966 7335 7825 8426 9105 2.4 6.6

World Reciprocating Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Complete pumps, inc. prime movers, exc. parts

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Rotary Pumps

The world market for rotary pumps amounts to around $3 billion, with the

advanced industrial countries (West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan)

accounting for 69% of the total.

Page III 16 shows that oil and gas, chemicals, pulp and paper and power

generation account for 39% of total demand.

The table on Page III 17 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The

largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe,

USA, Canada and Japan, plus China, Brazil and India.

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Rotary Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

West Europe East Europe Middle East/Africa Asia/Pacific America

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2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcontinued

Germany 427 6.4 Egypt 4 0.0United Kingdom 101 8.8 Oman 2 9.5Italy 99 5.9 Morocco 2 2.1France 63 7.1 Libya 2 10.0Switzerland 61 4.7 Kuwait 2 12.0Spain 35 6.5 Algeria 2 7.2Sweden 33 5.9 Qatar 1 15.9Netherlands 32 6.1Austria 31 7.0Norway 30 3.9Belgium 16 7.0Denmark 13 5.2 ASIAIreland 6 2.0Finland 4 7.0 China 578 8.1Portugal 2 3.7 Japan 283 3.7Greece 2 3.7 India 159 5.3

Korea - South 78 8.4EAST EUROPE Australia 59 4.8

Singapore 23 7.9Russia 107 5.4 Indonesia 19 5.7Poland 15 7.0 Malaysia 16 7.4Romania 12 5.8 Taiwan 13 2.6Hungary 9 6.6 Vietnam 12 8.9Czech Republic 8 8.4 Thailand 12 10.0Bulgaria 1 6.6 Hong Kong 9 8.8

Philippines 8 9.1AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 3 10.5

New Zealand 2 6.2UAE 29 8.1South Africa 23 3.1Saudi Arabia 18 7.2 AMERICATurkey 11 7.8Iraq 11 5.5 United States 700 7.9Tunisia 10 6.2 Brazil 152 6.5Nigeria 5 1.1 Canada 116 4.6Israel 5 6.7 Mexico 76 6.3Iran 5 2.2 Argentina 15 7.2

Colombia 11 6.8Chile 11 6.3Venezuela 6 5.4

Rotary Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries

$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates

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Further Sub-division of Rotary Pumps

The sub-division shown in the table below is less reliable than for centrifugal

and reciprocating pumps. This is mainly because US and Japanese production

data does not sub-divide the rotary market with the West European

classification system which we use for the sub-division.

Rotary-other contains several major pump types. Progressing cavity pum ps

are believed to account for around 60%.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR% CAGR%

2008-13 2014-19

Rotary - Gear 863 914 969 1033 1110 1193 1 6.7

Rotary - Vane 673 704 751 805 867 934 0.4 6.8

Rotary - Screw 845 890 948 1016 1091 1172 2 6.8

Rotary - Other 1221 1277 1359 1455 1564 1685 0.9 6.6

Rotary Pumps 3601 3782 4026 4309 4631 4984 1.1 6.7

World Rotary Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Residential Buildings & Other Pumps

Total market size is around $8 billion, with most of demand being located in

the advanced industrial countries.

The table on Page III 20 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The

largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe,

USA, Canada, and Japan, plus China, Australia, South Korea, India, Mexico

and Brazil

.

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2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

2014$M

CAGR%2014-2019

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont

Italy 476 7.9 Kuwait 29 5.2Germany 337 7.2 Libya 25 4.5Spain 171 7.5 Nigeria 24 3.8Sweden 112 6.4 Iraq 24 7.3Netherlands 110 7.5 Tunisia 20 3.5Switzerland 98 7.5 Oman 17 6.4Austria 88 7.5 Qatar 6 8.0Portugal 50 8.1 Syria 4 10.1Belgium 39 7.7 Bahrein 2 5.6Greece 30 7.4Finland 28 7.3United Kingdom 21 7.8 ASIAIreland 19 5.9Norway 18 6.7 China 1725 8.8France 6 8.3 Japan 948 3.7Denmark 3 7.6 India 335 4.9

Australia 315 2.0EAST EUROPE Korea - South 218 8.1

Hong Kong 211 7.8Poland 91 6.9 Indonesia 145 5.9Russia 63 4.1 Vietnam 93 8.3Romania 35 5.7 Thailand 91 8.3Hungary 10 6.6 Philippines 27 7.1Czech Republic 5 9.2 Singapore 26 7.4Bulgaria 5 5.0 Malaysia 25 7.2

Taiwan 23 0.9AFRICA/MID. EAST New Zealand 18 6.5

Pakistan 17 7.4UAE 167 5.4Saudi Arabia 104 6.8Morocco 102 3.5 AMERICATurkey 94 7.0South Africa 61 3.6 United States 445 8.1Egypt 61 0.4 Brazil 360 5.6Algeria 52 5.8 Mexico 75 6.3Israel 49 5.4 Canada 68 5.0Iran 32 1.8 Chile 55 5.7

Argentina 25 7.0Colombia 13 5.9Venezuela 5 2.3

Residential Buildings & Other Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries

$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Introduction

This section of the report discusses the pump market by end use industry.

Analysis by end use is more relevant to marketing than the anal ysis by

product which was discussed in Section III. However, it should be borne in

mind that the end use analysis is less reliable statistically because

information on pump usage by end use is limited.

Nevertheless, differences between countries in both market size and market

growth by end use are often so large that the statistical problem of

measurement is of secondary importance. The difference between the

advanced industrial countries and developing countries is a good example. In

the advanced countries market size and growth reflects maturity and a largely

replacement market (except perhaps for the effect of environmental

legislation). In the developing countries the in stalled base is sm all, so

replacement demand is limited and market growth rates (unless constrained

by poverty) can be expected to be higher than in the industrial countries.

Another factor is that market size and growth by end use are strongly

influenced by resource endowment in certain countries, particularly for oil &

gas, chemicals, pulp & paper, and mining.

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Summary of Pump Market Size by End Use Industry

The table on the next page summarises results for eac h of the end use

industries identified in the report.

World market growth averages 6.9% p.a. 2014-2019, compared with 2.3%

2008-2013. The underlying trend growth is around 6% per year. The last

five years saw below trend growth ow ing to the financia l crisis, but the

importance of this factor is progressively reduced over the next five years.

Over the historical period 2008-13 gr owth rates by end use varied from

8.8% for mining to -2.7% for other ch emicals. The forecast sees nuclear

power with a growth of 12.7% and coal power generation with growth of

only 2.7%.

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The World Pump Market by End Use Industry **

Complete pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts

$ million in 2014 (at current prices, 2010 exchange rates) or CAGR %

Valuation is at ex-factory cost

** sum of 63 countries * excludes offshore Africa and Caspian Sea + includes liquefied natural gas

$ million 2014 CAGR2013-18%

CAGR2014-19%

Oil & Gas-Onshore+ 3972 3.4 6Oil & Gas-Offshore* 2549 4.5 9.4Oil Refining 2286 2.6 2.9Basic Chemicals 2615 -2.4 6.3Other Chemicals 1232 -2.7 7Biofuels 236 9.8 9.5Coal/Oil Power Gen 1088 1.5 2.7Gas/Cogen Power Gen 788 2.5 8.9Hydro Power Gen 405 4.8 9.3Nuclear Power Gen 829 5.2 12.7Pulp & Paper 881 1.1 6.8Mining 2916 8.8 3Metal Manfacture 1368 -2.2 7.7Food 1416 4.8 8.1Drink 697 2.9 7.7Pharmaceuticals 440 -1.1 3.1Marine 870 0.5 6.9Harbours/docks/canal 114 2 7.4Other Industry 4679 1.8 7.9Water/Wastewater - All Industry (included above) 9066 2.8 6.9

Water/Wastewater - Municipal 4972 2.7 7.4Water/Wastewater - Total Industry/Municipal 14037 2.8 7.1Industrial Building 2548 1.5 7.1Residential Building 3382 2.7 7.6Construction Dewatering 1900 2 7.2

Total 42182 2.3 6.9

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Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry

The approach involves breaking dow n estimates of the pum p market in

different end uses into a pplications within each end use according to the

characteristics of the pu mps required. These applications can be grouped

together to show m arket sizes for engineered, standard and special purpose

pumps, which we summarise at the beginning of this section. Later parts of

this section show market sizes by e nd use and for appli cations within each

end use.

The following table lists the end uses and applications identified in the

report.

Characteristics of the Identified Applications

The table column headed ‘range’ provid es a broad classification into three

categories which are mainly determined by the application and pump

technology. These are:

ENG Engineered Pumps

STD Standard Pumps

SPE Special Purpose Pumps

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ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION MAIN OIL LINE & TRANSFER PUMPS ENG A C A

(SEPARATELY FOR ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE) METERING/ DOSING SPE C C C

FIRE PUMPS ENG A C A

INJECTION PUMPS ENG A C A

SEA WATER LIFT PUMPS ENG A C A

GAS SCRUBBING SPE B C B

LNG/NGL PUMPS SPE B C B

EFFLUENT TREATMENT PUMP SPE B C B

UTILITY STD C C B

CHEMICALS-BASIC METERING/ DOSING SPE C B C

CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B B A

CLEAR LIQUIDS STD C B C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C B C

UTILITY STD C B C

CHEMICALS-DOWNSTREAM CHEMICAL DOSING SPE C A C

CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B A B

CLEAR LIQUIDS STD C A C

METERING SPE C A C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C A C

UTILITY STD C A C

OIL REFINING REFINERY PROCESS ENG B C A

WATER CIRCULATING STD C C B

BOILER FEED & BOOSTER STD B C B

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C

LPG PUMPS SPE B C B

UTILITY STD C C C

POWER-COAL/OIL COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-100% DUTY ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-50% DUTY ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-COOLING WATER ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-BOOSTER ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-HEATER DRAINS ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-CONDENSATE RECOVERY ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-LUBE OIL SYSTEM ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-BOILER CIRCULATION ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-ASH/FGD PUMPS ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C C

Characteristics of Identified Applications

ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000

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ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT

POWER-COMBINED CYCLE GAS GAS-FEED WATER ENG A C A

GAS-CIRCULATION ENG A C A

GAS-COOLING WATER ENG A C A

GAS-CIRCULATORS STD B C B

GAS-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C A

POWER-HYDROELECTRIC HYDRO-MAIN PUMPS STD B C B

HYDRO-OTHER PUMPS STD C C C

POWER-NUCLEAR NUCLEAR-PRIMARY COOLANT ENG A C A

NUCLEAR-COOLING WATER ENG A C A

NUCLEAR-REACTOR BOILER FEED ENG A C A

NUCLEAR-SAFEGUARD & ASSOCIATED SPE C C A

NUCLEAR-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C A

PULP & PAPER CHEMICAL DOSING SPE C C C

LIQUOR STD B C B

PULP & PAPER STOCK ENG A C A

CONDENSATE STD B C B

FAN STD A C A

WOOD CHIP STD B C B

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C

UTILITY STD C C C

METAL MANUFACTURE DESCALING/MILL SCALE/FLUSHING STD B C B

CIRCULATING WATER STD B C B

WATER TREATMENT STD C C C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C

UTILITY STD C C C

Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued

ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000

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ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT

FOOD HYGIENIC SPE C B C

OTHER STD C B C

DRINK HYGIENIC SPE C B C

OTHER STD C B C

PHARMACEUTICALS HYGIENIC SPE C B C

OTHER STD C B C

MARINE PROPULSION SPE C C C

BILGE STD B C B

BALLAST STD B C B

FIRE FIGHTING STD B C B

OTHER SHIP PUMPS STD B C B

DOCK DEWATERING STD C C C

MINERAL MINING/PROCESSING DEWATERING STD C B C

MINE DRAINAGE STD A B A

DREDGE STD C B C

GRAVEL STD C B C

SLURRY STD B B B

JETTING STD C B C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C A C

WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR STD A C A

SEWERAGE SEWERAGE STD B C B

BUILDING SERVICES HEATING/VENT/AIR COND INDUSTRIAL STD C A C

HEATING/VENT/AIR COND DOMESTIC STD C A C

CONSTRUCTION DEWATERING STD C A C

OTHER INDUSTRIES CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B C B

Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued

ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000

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Other columns in the table are entitled ‘size’, ‘clients’ and ’contract’. These

are graded A, B or C according to the criteria given in the footnote to the table.

‘Size’ refers to the output capaci ty of the pump. ‘Clients’ indicates whether

there are a l arge number of potential customers in an application. ‘Contract’

refers to the typical size of a major pump contract. Thes e three parameters

have a fundamental effect on marketing methods and the nature of

competition.

Engineered Pumps

Engineered pumps are generally of large size, a nd built to a h igh

specification. On the specification side , conformity with API 610 is judged to

place pumps in the ‘engineered’ catego ry. Oil refinery process pumps are

included for that reason, rather than because of size. The main other end uses

employing engineered pumps are oil and gas production and po wer

generation. A characteristic of the m arket for engineered pumps is that major

contracts are £ multi-million. There are a relatively small number of clients in

the major areas of application, whether these are oil com panies or power

generation plant operators.

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Standard Pumps

The main characteristic of standard pumps is that they are produced in

large numbers at relatively low unit cost. Size ranges are wide, from small

to medium and large. Modern computer-aided manufacturing techniques

are employed to maximise economies of scale. Within the category there

are wide ranges of materials, from cast iron to stainless steel and exotic

alloys. Standard pumps may be ‘stand ard’ for particular applications, so

that submersible pumps can be thought of as standard to the water supply

application, rotary lobe pumps are standard for food processing, although

both types of pump have applications outside these major areas.

The classification of pumps as ‘sta ndard’ can change over tim e. For

example, circulating pumps might have been thought of as special purpose

thirty years ago. The growth of domestic central heating provided a market

that mass production methods could supply effectively. Conversely,

standard pumps might be used for a particular application, but give way to

the development of special purpose pumps, where the greater cost can be

justified on the grounds of efficiency.

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Standard pumps are used in all applications. The number of clients in a

particular application can be relatively few (e.g. oil and gas, power

generation), or vast, as in the case of heating, ventilating and air

conditioning. The average value of major contracts is much smaller than for

engineered pumps, but can be s ubstantial for large chemical or food

processing plants.

Special Purpose Pumps

Special purpose pumps are required where standard pumps cannot provide

an efficient solution. They are prod uced in relatively sm all numbers by

specialist companies and command a price premium over standard pumps.

Manufacturers of special purpose pumps could provide standard pumps, but

because they cannot achieve the same economies of scale as the specialist

standard pump manufacturers, they cannot compete on price grounds.

Manufacturers of special purpose pum ps usually have a large number of

customers. This is because there are applications for their products across

all end uses. An additional factor is th at as process plants become smaller

(and so m ore numerous), their products become more diversified and

require specialist production techniques.

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Average values of typical m ajor contracts are rel atively small. Relatively

high marketing costs exist because of the need to service a large num ber of

clients. This encourages special pur pose pump manufacturers to add value

by supplying systems, rather than bare pumps. Examples of applications for

special purpose pumps are dosing, metering, handling mixtures of gases and

liquids, spraying chemicals etc.

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps

The distinction between these three broad groups is of interest because it is

highly relevant to the m arket segmentation faced by com panies producing

pumps with dif ferent technologies. The chart below shows the percent

breakdown of the world market. Engineered accounted for 20% , special

purpose pumps 15% and standard pumps 65% .

Engin-eered20%

Special15%Standard

65%

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Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps

The chart below shows market sizes for engineered pumps The m ajor

markets are in oil and gas production, oil refining and power generation.

Market Size, Average 2013, Engineered Pumps, $m current prices

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Oil & Gas-Onshore

Oil & Gas-Offshore

Oil Refining

Coal/Oil Power Gen

Nuclear Power Gen

Gas/Cogen PowerGen

Pulp & Paper

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Market Sizes for Standard Pumps

Standard pumps are used across virtually all end uses. The largest are

municipal water/wastewater, other industry, domestic and mining.

Market Size, Average 2013, Standard Pumps, $m current prices

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Municipal Water/Wastewater

Other Industry

Domestic

Mining

Building Services

Basic Chemicals

Construction Dewatering

Metal Manfacture

Food

Marine

Oil Refining

Other Chemicals

Pulp & Paper

Oil & Gas-Onshore

Hydro Power Gen

Oil & Gas-Offshore

Drink

Coal/Oil Power Gen

Gas/Cogen Power Gen

Pharmaceuticals

Biofuels

Nuclear Power Gen

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Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps

Special purpose pumps are used in industries where m ixing, blending,

dosing etc requirements are signifi cant. The largest markets are in other

industry, chemicals, food and drink and water/wastewater,

Market Size, Average 2013, Special Purpose Pumps, $m current prices

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Other Industry

Other Chemicals

Basic Chemicals

Food

Municipal Water/Wastewater

Drink

Oil & Gas-Onshore

Pharmaceuticals

Oil Refining

Oil & Gas-Offshore

Pulp & Paper

Biofuels

Metal Manfacture

Nuclear Power Gen

Marine

Coal/Oil Power Gen

Gas/Cogen Power Gen

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OIL & GAS PRODUCTION AND REFINING

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries

Rankings for the market for complete pumps are shown in the table on the

next page. The US is by far the largest market, followed by China & Russia.

Market size is i nfluenced by the cost of production. Saudi Arabia has the

lowest costs and this is reflected in a relatively low m arket size, given the

scale of oil production. Other factors are the inclusion of relatively high cost

LNG in results for certain countries.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Market in Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates

$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19

$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST contNorway 104 1.5 Libya 71 7.3United Kingdom 103 7.1 Egypt 65 -0.6Italy 51 -3.3 Tunisia 31 7.1Germany 45 2.3 Kuwait 27 6.0Denmark 34 10.6 Turkey 23 7.7Austria 29 7.5 Bahrein 16 7.6France 28 5.2 Syria 1 5.2Netherlands 23 2.0Sweden 17 6.8Spain 12 3.4Belgium 12 9.1Portugal 11 7.9 ASIAIreland 7 6.5Switzerland 5 19.3 China 822 1.1Greece 5 6.9 Australia 446 10.7Finland 4 4.7 India 358 3.0

Indonesia 227 3.4EAST EUROPE Malaysia 213 5.5

Thailand 128 10.9Russia 565 5.6 Vietnam 110 10.3Poland 43 6.5 Singapore 96 7.4Romania 42 6.7 Philippines 93 8.2Hungary 36 6.4 Japan 59 -15.1Bulgaria 12 6.6 Korea - South 40 2.3Czech Republic 11 8.4 Pakistan 32 8.2

Taiwan 26 1.2AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 6 8.2

New Zealand 1 8.4Saudi Arabia 531 6.0UAE 444 8.6Iraq 315 5.5 AMERICAAlgeria 183 6.4Iran 162 4.0 United States 1619 8.4Nigeria 152 0.9 Brazil 367 6.7Qatar 104 18.6 Canada 262 2.3South Africa 80 0.7 Mexico 221 8.2Oman 80 7.5 Colombia 104 8.0

Venezuela 46 9.6Argentina 46 8.2Chile 6 6.7

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Oil and Gas Production

We sub-divide the market into offshore and onshore. Results by world region

and application (annual average 2014-2016) are shown on Pages IV 19 and

IV 20 respectively.

Regional demand is determined by the location of crude oil supplies. The

most important areas are USA/Canada, Middle East, Latin America and West

Europe.

Note that figures for Africa exclude offshore West Africa

0 500 1000 1500 2000

USA/Canada

Middle East

Pacific Rim

Latin America

Other Asia

Africa

China

Russia

India

West Europe

Other East Europe

Japan

Oil & Gas, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Oil & Gas Production - market change 2014-2019

The chart below shows that we expect the largest increases in the demand for

pumps will arise in the Middle East and US. Note that figures for Other East

Europe do not include Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, where demand is known to

be growing rapidly. The countries incl uded in the figures for Africa exclude

offshore Angola and Equatorial Guinea.

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Oil & Gas, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

ONSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Main oil line

Metering/dosing

Fire pumps

Injection pumps

Gas scrubbing

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 4.5 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.7 8.8Other West Europe 28.4 2.9 11.2 5.6 2.9 4.4 55.0

Russia 140.5 13.6 54.0 27.0 13.6 21.7 270.3Other East Europe 48.9 4.7 18.8 9.3 4.7 7.5 94.2

Africa 196.9 19.1 75.6 37.8 19.1 30.2 378.6Middle East 773.3 74.7 297.2 148.6 74.7 119.3 1488.1

China 193.8 18.7 74.4 37.3 18.7 29.8 372.8India 26.9 2.6 10.3 5.1 2.6 4.1 51.8Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pacific Rim 170.0 16.4 65.2 32.5 16.4 25.9 326.4Other Asia 138.8 13.3 53.4 26.6 13.3 21.3 266.7

USA/Canada 507.4 49.0 195.2 97.6 49.0 78.0 976.2Latin America 169.5 16.5 65.3 32.7 16.5 26.1 326.0

World 2399.1 231.8 922.4 460.8 231.8 369.1 4615.0

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

OFFSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

** n.b countries covered exclude Caspian Sea area

* n.b. excludes offshore African countries

Mainoil line

Metering/dosing

Firepumps

Injectionpumps

Sea water lift

Gas scrubbing

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other West Europe 37.0 9.3 46.2 18.6 46.2 5.6 22.0 184.0

Russia 7.9 2.1 10.0 4.0 10.0 1.2 4.7 39.7Other East Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Africa 21.6 5.4 27.0 10.9 27.0 3.3 13.0 108.4Middle East 189.2 47.6 236.7 94.2 236.7 28.4 113.4 945.9

China 10.3 2.6 13.0 5.1 13.0 1.7 6.2 51.9India 56.3 14.1 70.3 28.1 70.3 8.6 33.8 281.2Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pacific Rim 77.9 19.8 97.5 38.8 97.5 11.5 46.6 388.8Other Asia 27.9 7.0 34.9 14.0 34.9 4.2 16.7 139.7

USA/Canada 140.8 35.2 176.0 70.3 176.0 21.2 84.4 703.8Latin America 53.1 13.3 66.4 26.5 66.4 8.0 31.8 265.2

World 622.0 156.5 778.0 310.5 778.0 93.6 372.7 3108.4

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Oil Refining

There are many factors influencing the market for pumps in oil refining.

Traditionally, industrialised countries have imported crude oil and refined it

themselves. Developing countries with oil resources now wish t o expand

capacity to add value to their oil exports. Until recently pum p demand in the

industrial countries was also influenced strongly by cont inuous upgrading of

refining capacity and by new environmental legislation. The chart below shows

the pattern of world demand.

The breakdown by application is given in the table on Page IV 23.

0 100 200 300 400 500

China

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Russia

USA/Canada

Latin America

West Europe

Africa

India

Other East Europe

Japan

Other Asia

Oil Refining, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Oil Refining - Market Change 2014-2019

Africa, Middle East, Pacific Rim and Latin America continue to expand

capacity. The figures for China reflect lower invesment after very rapid

growth in recent years.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

West Europe

Russia

Other East

Europe

Africa

Middle East

China

India

Japan

Pacific Rim

Other A

sia

USA

/Canada

Latin Am

erica

Oil Refining, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

OIL REFINING REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Refinery process Watercirculating

Special purpose Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 9.6 1.6 2.1 2.7 16.0Other West Europe 94.9 15.8 20.6 26.9 158.1

Russia 137.4 22.9 29.8 39.0 229.0Other East Europe 61.3 10.2 13.3 17.4 102.1

Africa 76.6 12.8 16.6 21.8 127.7Middle East 208.8 34.9 45.3 59.3 348.1

China 293.2 48.9 63.5 83.3 488.7India 121.8 20.3 26.4 34.6 203.0Japan 23.7 4.0 5.1 6.7 39.6Pacific Rim 200.1 33.4 43.3 56.8 333.6Other Asia 10.7 1.7 2.3 3.0 17.8

USA/Canada 100.7 16.8 21.8 28.6 167.7Latin America 189.9 31.8 41.1 53.9 316.6

World 1528.7 255.1 331.1 434.1 2548.0

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

It is important to make a clear distinction between basic chemicals and ‘other’

chemicals. Basic chemicals consist of large scale organic and inorganic plants.

‘Other’ chemicals consist of all other chemical plants, including

pharmaceuticals, dyestuffs, agrochemicals, synthetic resins, paints, synthetic

rubber, industrial gases etc.

The two sectors have m ajor differences in terms of the number of companies

involved, underlying investment trends a nd pump requirements. Basic

chemicals are subject to greater economic cycles than downstream chemicals

because they experience wide fluctuations in com modity prices and because

the industry is more exposed to international competition.

The world pattern of investment between basic chemicals and ‘other’

chemicals is also very different. Demand for basic chemicals in the Western

industrialised world has reached saturation but dem and for certain types of

other chemicals continues to grow. In the developing industrialised countries

the first priority has to be the growth of bas ic chemicals capacity, before

downstream plants can be established.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Advanced Developing

Chemical Industry - World Capital Expenditure

The table below shows capital expend iture, split betwee n advanced and

developing countries. Developing countries investment exceeded the figures

for advanced countries in year 2001, and since then the gap has

systematically grown larger. Over the forecast period, growth in the

advanced countries is partly explained by the development of shale gas as a

low-cost feedstock in USA and Canada . We have reduced our forecast of

captial investment in West Europe, compared with last year, to take account

of the effect of low cost petrochemical imports from USA/Canada.

World Chemical Industry Capital Expenditure - $ billions

Source: National Statistica Offices, EIF estimates

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Trends in Capital investment in Basic Chemicals in the Advanced

Countries

There have been tw o important trends in ca pital investment in basic

chemicals affecting the advanced countries. The first is the development of

shale gas in USA/Canada which will lead to a strong increase of

petrochemical plant capacity in these countries over the next decade (in

marked contrast with stagnation or decline over the previous twenty years).

The second development is the decline in petrochemical plant capacity in

Western Europe, which in part is the direct result of expansion in USA/

Canada but has also been affected by a rapid build up of capaci ty in the

Middle East and China.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Chemical Industry Ranking by 63 Countries

Rankings by market size for complete pumps in the chem ical industry are

shown in the table on the next page.

China, Germany and the USA are clear leaders. Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE

are large markets in the Africa & Middle East section. Other large markets in

Asia are found in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. In Europe, excluding

Germany, the leading markets are in Russia, France, Switzerland and the UK

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Market in Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates

$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19

$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont

Germany 413 4.0 Algeria 12 8.0Switzerland 136 2.4 South Africa 9 8.7Italy 66 3.7 Oman 6 4.0France 49 2.7 Nigeria 1 9.6United Kingdom 48 3.4 Bahrein 1 22.9Denmark 46 1.1Spain 37 2.9Netherlands 37 2.0Belgium 21 2.6Ireland 18 1.2Sweden 17 3.0Austria 14 2.1 ASIAPortugal 5 6.4Norway 3 0.7 China 1025 7.6Finland 3 2.9 Japan 218 3.5

Korea - South 134 9.8India 118 8.7

EAST EUROPE Thailand 67 10.2Indonesia 67 8.0

Russia 96 5.8 Taiwan 43 3.3Poland 24 7.5 Singapore 41 8.7Hungary 21 7.1 Philippines 38 10.2Bulgaria 13 7.8 Malaysia 31 10.3Czech Republic 7 11.4 Vietnam 22 8.2Romania 6 3.0 Australia 16 5.2

Pakistan 10 8.7AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 9 8.9

Saudi Arabia 164 11.3UAE 62 7.7Turkey 28 10.1 AMERICAIsrael 18 8.6Kuwait 15 9.5 United States 567 6.9

Brazil 100 8.6Canada 64 4.5Venezuela 44 5.5Mexico 33 8.6Chile 22 8.7Argentina 18 7.6

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Basic Chemicals

The chart below shows that the largest markets are in China, West Europe,

Pacific Rim, Middle East and US/Canada.

The breakdown by application is shown on Page IV 31.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Japan

Latin America

Russia

India

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Africa

Basic Chemicals, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Basic Chemicals - Market change 2014-2019

The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected in

China, West Europe and US/Canada.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Basic Chemicals, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

BASIC CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Chemicalprocess

Metering/dosing

Specialpurpose

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 184.9 29.4 56.8 13.0 284.2Other West Europe 188.0 29.9 57.7 14.9 290.5

Russia 59.4 9.4 18.3 4.2 91.4Other East Europe 38.8 6.4 12.1 3.4 60.7

Africa 29.4 4.7 8.5 2.3 45.0Middle East 201.4 32.5 62.0 14.3 310.4

China 345.2 54.8 106.4 24.9 531.4India 56.5 9.0 17.4 4.0 87.0Japan 127.3 20.1 39.2 9.1 195.6Pacific Rim 243.0 38.5 75.1 16.6 374.0Other Asia 14.0 2.4 4.3 1.2 21.8

USA/Canada 157.4 25.1 48.9 11.3 242.5Latin America 66.4 10.4 20.4 4.9 102.1

World 1711.8 272.7 527.2 124.1 2636.6

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Other Chemicals

The chart below shows that the largest markets are in China, West Europe,

Middle East, Pacific Rim and US/Canada.

The demand for products of 'other' chemicals is significantly dependent on

high living standards - e.g. cosm etics, toiletries etc. Other Chem icals is a

particularly large consumer of rotary pumps. The breakdown by application

is shown on Page IV 34.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

China

West Europe

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Latin America

Japan

India

Russia

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Africa

Other Chemicals, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Other Chemicals - market change 2014-2019

The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected

in China, West Europe and the Middle East.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Other Chemicals, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

OTHER CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Chemicalprocess

Metering/dosing

Special purpose

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 35.3 15.5 45.6 4.5 100.6Other West Europe 34.8 15.2 45.3 5.4 100.0

Russia 10.3 4.3 13.2 1.2 28.6Other East Europe 7.7 3.8 9.7 1.2 21.7

Africa 6.2 3.2 8.0 0.9 18.4Middle East 71.6 31.3 92.5 9.4 204.7

China 147.7 64.4 190.0 19.3 421.5India 19.3 8.4 24.8 2.5 55.0Japan 24.4 10.6 31.7 3.2 70.1Pacific Rim 52.6 23.3 67.6 7.0 150.3Other Asia 3.2 1.5 4.0 0.5 9.1

USA/Canada 23.4 10.0 29.9 3.2 66.6Latin America 13.8 6.0 17.8 1.9 39.9

World 450.3 197.3 580.2 60.2 1286.3

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

POWER GENERATION

Power generation is a large user of pumps for water cooling and transfer and

for high temperature and pressure applications. Plant technology has a major

bearing on pump usage, so it is necessary to sub-divide investment activity in

order to provide credible market forecasts.

We sub-divide pump requirements for power generation into:

a) coal/oil fired

b) combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration

c) nuclear

d) hydroelectric

Power generation for desalination (m ainly concentrated in the Middle East)

is included in combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration.

Rankings of Complete Pump Market Size by 63 countries

The table on the next page shows ranking s by market size in 2014. In Asia

the leading markets are China, Japan, India, and South Korea. In America the

US and Brazil lead. In West Europe the leaders are Germany, France, Italy

and the UK. Leading markets in East Europe are Russia and Poland. Markets

in Africa & Middle East are led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Pump Market in Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates

$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19

$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont

Germany 224 0.4 Syria 2 2.6France 67 2.6 Libya 2 5.9United Kingdom 54 30.9 Kuwait 2 11.7Italy 40 4.5 Bahrein 2 0.0Denmark 34 4.6 Tunisia 1 1.9Spain 22 3.1 Israel 1 -3.3Netherlands 22 3.9 Iraq 1 3.4Austria 22 5.9Sweden 15 4.1Switzerland 13 18.9Portugal 13 6.4Finland 12 4.2 ASIANorway 9 6.4Belgium 9 2.5 China 796 10.0Greece 7 2.6 India 220 8.7Ireland 3 5.2 Japan 189 13.0

Korea - South 95 0.5EAST EUROPE Australia 64 -0.1

Thailand 47 4.7Russia 279 11.6 Singapore 40 3.9Poland 22 3.5 Philippines 40 3.3Bulgaria 14 8.9 Indonesia 39 2.6Romania 12 2.5 Vietnam 37 7.7Czech Republic 12 7.0 Pakistan 28 4.0Hungary 4 6.6 Hong Kong 22 4.5

Taiwan 17 7.9AFRICA/MID. EAST Malaysia 5 7.0

New Zealand 1 10.8Saudi Arabia 49 3.7Turkey 47 8.2UAE 22 29.4 AMERICAEgypt 15 -2.0Nigeria 13 2.7 United States 121 5.8Morocco 7 3.5 Mexico 82 3.2Algeria 7 2.4 Brazil 69 5.3South Africa 5 0.8 Canada 53 2.8Iran 3 3.3 Colombia 23 4.5

Venezuela 21 0.4Argentina 13 4.0Chile 5 4.5

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Power Generation - Market Size

Requirements by power type, application and world regi on are tabulated on

Pages IV 38 to IV 41 respectively. Overall market sizes for power generation

are shown in the chart below. China is the leader, followed by West Europe,

Pacific Rim, Russia and and Latin America.

0 200 400 600 800 1000

China

West Europe

Pacific Rim

Russia

India

Japan

Latin America

USA/Canada

Middle East

Other Asia

Other East Europe

Africa

Power Generation, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Power Generation - change in market size 2014-2019

The main growth areas are China, Russia and West Europe.

The massive increase in investment in renewables in West Europe reduces

the demand for pumps. Low gas prices in the USA have led to an increase in

the market share of gas-fired power plants .

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Power Generation, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

COAL/OIL FIRED POWER GENERATION REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Boiler feed-100%

Boiler feed-50%

Cooling water

Booster Condensaterecovery

Lube oil system

Boilercirculating

Ash/fgdpumps

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 25.1 6.4 6.4 5.9 8.5 6.9 5.9 13.2 22.7 119.6Other WestEurope

25.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 9.6 7.5 6.0 13.3 23.2 120.3

Russia 19.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.5 5.3 4.9 10.3 17.6 93.9Other East Europe 5.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.7 3.3 5.3 28.2

Africa 5.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 3.0 4.9 24.2Middle East 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.3 2.3 11.3

China 61.4 15.8 15.8 14.6 20.5 17.0 14.6 32.1 55.5 293.2India 30.9 8.0 8.0 7.4 10.3 8.6 7.4 16.1 27.9 146.6Japan 6.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 3.3 5.8 30.6Pacific Rim 17.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 6.3 5.0 4.4 9.3 15.8 83.7Other Asia 11.9 3.2 3.2 2.9 4.0 3.4 2.9 6.4 11.0 56.9

USA/Canada 7.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 3.8 6.4 33.7Latin America 29.3 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.1 8.8 7.6 15.1 26.8 141.2

World 248.0 64.6 64.6 60.4 84.8 70.5 60.4 130.6 225.1 1183.2

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GAS TURBINE/COMBINED CYCLE/COGENERATION REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Boiler feed Watercirculation

Condensaterecovery

Coolingwater

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 34.2 27.2 13.8 12.4 49.2 136.8Other West Europe 26.9 22.0 10.8 9.4 37.3 105.4

Russia 5.2 4.2 2.3 2.0 8.3 22.1Other East Europe 4.0 3.2 1.9 2.0 5.5 16.0

Africa 8.9 7.1 3.8 3.5 12.0 33.9Middle East 21.3 17.3 9.3 7.9 30.8 85.0

China 18.6 14.9 7.5 6.7 26.8 74.5India 15.0 11.8 6.0 5.4 21.5 59.8Japan 13.1 10.4 5.3 4.8 18.9 52.3Pacific Rim 35.7 27.8 15.1 13.6 50.7 143.2Other Asia 6.6 5.1 2.9 2.6 9.3 25.7

USA/Canada 23.4 18.5 9.4 8.6 33.6 93.7Latin America 8.4 6.5 3.8 3.3 11.5 33.3

World 221.0 175.9 91.8 82.3 315.3 881.7

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NUCLEAR POWER REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Primarycoolant

Coolingwater

Reactorboiler feed

Safeguard Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 2.5 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 7.4Other West Europe 35.7 12.6 20.9 18.6 17.2 104.2

Russia 62.3 22.0 36.2 32.1 30.2 182.8Other East Europe 4.1 1.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 12.2

Africa 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8Middle East 10.3 3.7 6.0 5.4 5.0 30.1

China 138.0 48.9 80.2 71.3 66.8 405.1India 27.4 9.7 15.9 14.1 13.3 78.6Japan 14.6 5.2 8.4 7.5 7.0 42.8Pacific Rim 23.3 8.3 13.5 12.0 11.2 68.1Other Asia 1.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 4.4

USA/Canada 18.7 6.6 10.9 9.7 9.0 54.8Latin America 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.6

World 339.5 120.3 197.4 175.5 164.4 993.8

* New UAE reactors begin after this period

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HYDROELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATIONS$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

$ millionGermany 10.8Other West Europe 39.5

Russia 15.8Other East Europe 4.0

Africa 6.5Middle East 39.2

China 168.9India 27.7Japan 14.1Pacific Rim 40.9Other Asia 8.1

USA/Canada 13.8Latin America 91.2

World 480.5

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WATER & WASTEWATER TREATMENT

Previous issues of this report referred to the end use 'water and sewerage' ,

which actually related to municipal water and wastewater treatment. Industrial

water/wastewater treatment was (and continues to be) includ ed in the market

by the different end use industries.

We have reclassified some applications by end use industry so that industrial

water/wastewater is better defined, and we also show industrial water/

wastewater (summed across end use industries) as a sub-total in the individual

country tables in Part II of this report.

This section of the report summarises results for the sum of industrial and

municipal water/wastewater treatment.

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Water and wastewater treatment is a large market for pumps, with radically

different market drivers for the advanced industrial countries compared with

the developing countries.

In the case of the industrial countries there are two major factors. The first is

the importance of environmental legislation in recent years and the second is

the trend towards privatisation of municipal utilities. The latter has also led to

growing horizontal integration of privately owned gas, electricity and water

companies.

Developing countries have radically di fferent market prospects. Those with

natural resources or dynamism which supports the growth of export revenue

are able to afford the cost without entirely having to depend on international

aid: examples are China, Malaysia, India, oil exporters in the Middle East

etc. Many other developing countries, and particularly those in Africa,

depend almost entirely on international aid to support investment in water

and sewerage. In these cases widespread corruption over several decades has

diverted monies intended for investment into private bank accounts outside

the countries in question. This has not only starve d these countries of the

necessary investment in the past, it has inhibited the growth of funding in the

short term and this inhibition can be expected to persist over the forecast

period, despite UN initiatives involving targets for water and sanitation. The

recent large increase in food prices have also reduced the international ai d

available for water and sewerage projects, since food aid takes a larger share

of aid budgets.

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Rankings of the complete pump market for Water & Wastewater

(sum of municipal and industrial) in 63 countries

Market size and growth rates are shown in the table on the next page.

In the industrialised world the USA is the largest market, followed by the

Japan and Germany. Japan has had a massive municipal investment

programme in re cent years, which is now unwindi ng since water and

sewerage standards have now reached the levels in other advanced industrial

countries.

China is the largest market in the developing world, followed by India.

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Pump Market in Water/Wastewater (industrial + municipal)

Ranking by 63 Countries

$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19

$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont

Germany 1100 6.9 Iran 39 2.2Italy 507 7.8 Iraq 34 6.3France 437 7.6 Kuwait 33 5.8United Kingdom 373 8.7 Algeria 32 5.6Spain 260 7.7 Oman 22 7.2Sweden 203 6.9 Tunisia 17 3.8Denmark 178 7.5 Qatar 15 12.3Netherlands 171 7.2 Bahrein 5 3.9Switzerland 123 7.1 Syria 2 8.4Austria 116 7.5Belgium 107 7.6Finland 56 7.4 ASIAIreland 41 5.3Portugal 39 8.5 China 2871 8.9Norway 38 6.2 Japan 897 4.1Greece 17 6.1 India 594 5.5

Australia 431 2.8EAST EUROPE Korea - South 318 7.6

Indonesia 148 5.2Russia 389 4.9 Thailand 140 8.4Poland 133 6.8 Vietnam 111 8.8Hungary 52 6.7 Hong Kong 99 7.9Czech Republic 37 9.5 Singapore 72 6.9Romania 36 6.5 Taiwan 65 1.4Bulgaria 17 4.8 Malaysia 52 7.2

Philippines 48 7.3AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 28 8.0

New Zealand 18 7.3Saudi Arabia 161 6.3UAE 133 7.1Turkey 127 6.9 AMERICASouth Africa 75 2.8Morocco 71 3.3 United States 1727 8.1Egypt 64 -0.1 Brazil 371 5.3Israel 60 5.5 Canada 302 5.3Nigeria 44 3.4 Mexico 160 6.5Libya 40 4.9 Chile 73 5.8

Argentina 49 7.0Colombia 38 6.4Venezuela 24 3.4

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Water/Wastewater Treatment - Market Size by World Region

The chart below shows market size (annual average 2014-2016). West Europe

China, USA/Canada and Japan account for a high proportion of the market in

the identified countries. Some developing countries with low income levels

are, in aggregate, a significant m arket for pumps in water and sewerage

because of the importance of international aid, but many in Africa, Asia and

Latin America are excluded because this report covers the top 63 economies.

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Japan

Latin America

Middle East

India

Other Asia

Russia

Africa

Other East Europe

Water & Sewerage, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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Market Change for Water/Wastewater Treatment (Industrial plus

Municipal)

The chart below shows m arket change 2014-2019. The largest increases in

demand are to be found in China, West Europe and US/Canada.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Water & Sewerage, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current

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WATER & WASTEWATER TREATMENTPUMP REQUIREMENTS - Annual average 2014-2016

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

TotalIndustrial

MunicipalWater Resources

MunicipalWastewater

TotalMunicipal

TotalWater/

Wastewater

Germany 645.0 210.6 320.0 530.6 1175.6Other West Europe 1567.3 485.2 737.2 1222.4 2789.7

Russia 354.7 33.8 51.3 85.1 439.8Other East Europe 191.2 55.2 83.9 139.1 330.4

Africa 333.8 25.5 38.6 64.1 397.9Middle East 661.9 98.3 149.1 247.3 909.3

China 2304.8 433.6 658.7 1092.3 3397.1India 512.3 206.7 155.9 258.4 770.7Japan 449.9 247.4 375.9 623.3 1073.2Pacific Rim 856.7 84.2 128.1 212.3 1069.0Other Asia 466.9 37.9 57.7 95.6 562.5

USA/Canada 1295.3 342.0 519.5 861.4 2156.8Latin America 773.8 84.6 128.5 213.0 986.8

World 10413.8 2344.9 3404.2 5645.0 16058.8

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GENERAL INDUSTRY

General industry covers all pump applications outside the industries already

considered and, in most instances, demand in particular countries is closely

related to trends in population and GDP per capita, rather than the

availability of natural resources. However, there are two exceptions: mineral

mining/processing and pulp and paper, because the availability of natural

resources is clearly important in these instances.

In this section we consider markets in the following end use industries:

Mining

Pulp & Paper

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals

Metal Manufacture

Marine

Building Services

Construction Dewatering

Other Industry (includes agriculture, coal mining, engineering & vehicles,

textiles, building materials, other manufacturing)

Domestic

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Ranking of the Market Size for Complete Pumps in General Industry

for 63 Countries

The table on the next page shows that the largest markets are in the major

industrial countries. China, South Korea, India, Russia and Brazil also rank

high.

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Pump Market in General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates

$M 2014 CAGR%2014-19

$M 2014 CAGR% 2014-19

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST cont

Germany 1908 7.3 Kuwait 45 4.5Italy 734 7.9 Nigeria 36 3.6France 611 7.7 Oman 28 6.6United Kingdom 419 7.7 Iraq 28 8.3Sweden 357 6.3 Tunisia 26 3.0Spain 330 7.4 Libya 12 3.3Denmark 273 7.4 Bahrein 6 4.6Netherlands 244 7.6 Qatar 5 -2.1Switzerland 189 7.4 Syria 4 9.1Austria 181 7.5Belgium 159 7.6Finland 85 7.3 ASIAPortugal 62 8.1Ireland 61 6.1 China 4768 8.7Norway 54 6.9 Japan 1687 3.7Greece 42 7.2 India 763 5.2

Australia 740 1.3EAST EUROPE Korea - South 623 8.3

Indonesia 236 6.2Russia 467 3.4 Hong Kong 217 7.9Poland 181 6.6 Vietnam 193 8.4Hungary 56 6.6 Thailand 154 8.1Romania 45 5.1 Taiwan 92 1.1Czech Republic 44 8.5 Singapore 74 7.6Bulgaria 19 4.8 Malaysia 57 7.2

Philippines 33 7.5AFRICA/MID. EAST New Zealand 28 6.5

Pakistan 22 7.9Turkey 229 6.9UAE 190 4.2South Africa 140 3.6 AMERICAMorocco 134 3.4Israel 101 5.3 United States 2150 8.2Saudi Arabia 95 7.4 Brazil 591 5.5Egypt 87 0.6 Canada 559 4.9Algeria 51 5.8 Mexico 203 5.9Iran 50 0.9 Chile 126 5.6

Argentina 46 7.1Colombia 38 5.5Venezuela 21 1.8

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Mining, excluding Oil & Gas

We have extended the coverage of mining, compared with previous

reports, to cover all mining and quarrying, excluding oil and gas.

The pattern of world demand for pum ps, shown in the chart below, is

determined mainly by the availability of natural resources. China, Other

Asia (mainly Australia) and Latin Am erica are important for this reason.

Note that our 63 countries exclude some significant producers in Africa

and Latin America.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Other Asia

China

Latin America

USA/Canada

Russia

West Europe

Africa

India

Middle East

Pacific Rim

Other East Europe

Japan

Mining, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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World Mining Capital Expenditure

Capital expenditure by the top 15 mining companies (estimated to account for around 75% of

world mining) is shown in the table below compared with last year’s figures. Last year we

were too optimistic (for the s econd year in a row) about th e speed of recovery in m ining

capital expenditure from 2013 onwards.

Having re-examined capital expenditure plans by the top 15 mining companies up to 2016,

our forecast through 2019 are even lower than last year. The larger com panies are cutting

capital spending in favour of boosting shareholders’ returns. Expenditure in 2019 is expected

to remain below the peak reached in 2012. In large part this is explained by the m acro-

economic slowdown in China.

Capital Expenditure by the Top 15 Mining Companies - $ million

Source: Reports and Accounts of Mining Companies, IMF, EIF estimates.Includes Anglo American, BHP, Norilisk Nickel, Vale, Antofgasta, Kazakhyms, Newmont, Glencore, Barrick Gold, Rio Tinto, Grupo Mexico, Freeport-McMoran, Codelco, Newcrest, Potash Corp

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

This Year Last Year

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Mining - change in market size 2014-2019

The chart below shows t he importance of China, USA/Canada and Latin

America for increases in demand.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

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India

Japa

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Rim

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Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Mining, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices

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MININGPUMP REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Drainage Gravel/dredge

Slurry Jetting Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 17.6 7.6 12.1 10.8 44.5 91.8Other WestEurope

43.6 19.4 27.7 26.8 102.9 217.1

Russia 81.3 32.5 51.2 47.3 194.1 404.7Other EastEurope

17.3 6.1 11.3 10.0 44.2 88.2

Africa 58.7 23.1 34.4 33.4 139.8 287.8Middle East 27.8 11.3 18.3 18.4 71.8 145.9

China 125.1 49.5 77.6 73.4 300.7 625.9India 26.6 10.6 16.4 15.7 64.0 133.4Japan 2.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 4.6 9.0Pacific Rim 15.8 7.5 10.9 10.0 38.1 79.8Other Asia 139.9 55.6 85.7 81.5 336.1 698.9

USA/Canada 79.8 30.7 49.1 46.4 192.0 398.2Latin America 126.9 52.5 78.9 75.2 306.4 641.0

World 762.6 306.7 474.3 449.8 1839.0 3821.5

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World Pulp & Paper Capital Expenditure

The table below s hows world capi tal expenditure on pulp and paper. The

average annual com pound growth 2000-19 is estim ated at 2.7% per year.

There were significant recessions in 2002/3 and 2009/10.

Virtually all the growth from 2010 onwards is concentrated in developing

countries.

Source: EIF estimates

05

1015202530354045

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

World Pulp & Paper Capex - $ billion

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Pulp and Paper

Although markets for pulp are predominantly in world regions where natural

resources are concentrated, i. e. Scandinavia, USA/Canada, demand for pumps

for paper product ion is spread across all industrialised countries. This is

reflected in the chart below, which shows average market size 2014-2016.

Page IV 59 shows the breakdown by application (average 2014-2016)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

USA/Canada

China

West Europe

Pacific Rim

Latin America

Japan

India

Other East Europe

Africa

Other Asia

Russia

Middle East

Pulp & Paper, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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Pulp & Paper - Market Change 2014-2019

The chart below shows that China, USA/Canada and Pacific Rim are the

largest growth areas.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

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Africa

Midd

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China

India

Japa

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Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Pulp & Paper, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices

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PUMPS FOR THE PULP & PAPER INDUSTRYBY APPLICATION -Annual average 2014-2016

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Metering/dosing

Liquor Stock Specialpurpose

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 1.5 12.8 7.0 4.9 5.3 31.6Other West Europe 9.7 96.9 52.8 37.9 41.5 237.4

Russia 0.5 4.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 11.0Other East Europe 0.9 8.0 4.4 3.3 3.7 19.9

Africa 0.7 5.7 3.3 2.4 2.5 14.6Middle East 0.5 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.4 9.0

China 6.5 66.3 35.5 25.8 27.6 161.7India 1.1 11.1 5.9 4.4 4.6 27.0Japan 3.0 29.2 15.6 11.2 12.1 71.2Pacific Rim 2.8 26.4 14.3 10.0 10.9 64.7Other Asia 0.4 4.3 2.4 1.9 1.9 10.7

USA/Canada 3.9 39.9 21.5 15.6 16.6 97.8Latin America 4.0 35.9 19.5 13.8 15.1 87.6

World 35.5 344.4 186.5 134.5 145.2 843.9

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Food, Drink and Pharmaceuticals

Demand is divided between hygienic and other pumps. The total value of

hygienic pumps used by food, drink and pharmaceuticals is estimated at around

$1,250 million, of which hygienic rotary lobe is the most important pump type,

with a world market of around $300 million (exc. parts). The breakdown

between ‘hygienic’ and ‘other’ pumps is given on Page IV 63. West Europe is

shown to be a much la rger market than USA/Canada. Although the West

European population is larger, the main explanation is that food processing is

carried out in m uch larger plants in North Am erica where there are m ajor

economies of scale.

0 200 400 600 800 1000

West Europe

China

Pacific Rim

USA/Canada

India

Japan

Middle East

Latin America

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Africa

Russia

Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals - Change in Market Size 2014-2019

In absolute terms, most of the growth occurs in China and West Europe.

0

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300

350

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USA/Can

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Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices

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PUMPS FOR FOOD, DRINK, PHARMACEUTICALSAnnual average 2014-2016

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Hygienic Water/Wastewater

Total Hygienic Water/Wastewater

Total Hygienic Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 57.3 85.7 143.0 60.9 40.2 101.5 16.0 5.3 21.3Other WestEurope

143.1 214.5 358.1 91.0 59.3 150.5 63.2 21.4 84.5

Russia 7.6 11.2 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.2 4.7Other EastEurope

11.8 17.6 29.3 8.4 5.2 14.2 1.5 0.6 2.1

Africa 4.8 8.1 12.4 8.9 5.1 13.3 1.2 0.5 1.7Middle East 23.7 34.6 58.3 33.3 23.3 55.6 7.7 2.6 10.3

China 218.8 329.2 548.0 140.2 93.3 233.4 125.5 41.9 167.4India 44.0 66.3 110.2 17.6 11.7 29.3 28.7 9.5 38.2Japan 23.9 36.3 60.2 26.9 18.1 45.1 14.8 4.9 19.7Pacific Rim 40.8 60.0 101.2 27.0 17.9 44.6 29.4 10.0 39.4Other Asia 7.8 11.0 18.6 5.4 3.8 8.7 0.4 0.1 0.5

USA/Canada 38.3 57.7 95.9 33.5 22.5 56.1 37.0 12.4 49.3Latin America 14.9 23.1 38.0 24.2 15.5 39.5 1.4 0.4 1.8

World 636.7 955.1 1592.0 477.2 315.9 791.9 330.2 110.8 441.0

Food Drink Pharmaceuticals

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Metal Manufacturing

The chart below shows the largest market sizes (average 2014-2016) are in

China, West Europe, and Japan. China ranks high because the country is the

world's largest steel producer.

0 200 400 600 800

China

West Europe

India

Pacific Rim

Latin America

USA/Canada

Japan

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Middle East

Africa

Russia

Metal Manufacturing, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Metal Manufacturing - Market Change 2014-2019

Industrialisation requires basic infrastructure and then production of a wide

range of metal using products. China is the only real growth area.

Page IV 65 tabulates requirements by application.

-50

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Metal Manufacturing, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

METAL MANUFACTURING - PUMP REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Descaling/mill scale

Circulating Specialpurpose

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 38.0 12.6 12.6 63.2 126.5Other West Europe 54.6 18.2 18.2 89.9 180.1

Russia 2.1 0.4 0.4 3.2 6.7Other East Europe 8.8 2.6 2.6 14.3 28.1

Africa 7.0 2.4 2.4 11.3 22.6Middle East 7.6 2.3 2.3 12.4 24.6

China 192.7 59.8 62.0 314.5 629.1India 40.4 13.4 13.4 67.3 134.6Japan 37.3 12.2 12.2 61.8 123.7Pacific Rim 28.9 10.0 10.0 48.1 97.6Other Asia 7.9 2.7 2.7 13.4 26.6

USA/Canada 24.1 7.9 7.9 40.2 80.5Latin America 35.4 11.6 11.6 58.8 117.1

World 484.8 156.2 158.4 798.4 1597.6

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

World Shipbuilding Trends

New shipbuilding completions grew rapidly 2005-2010 so that a glut in capacity has drivendown shipping rates. New orders in 2012 were only 50% of the 28 million tonnes reached in2011. While there is a considerable order backlog, completions 2012 fell by 20% comparedwith 2011. In addition, the price of new ships is expected to fall by 6%, so that value ofcompletions was 26% lower in 2012 than in 2011. In 2012 South Korea accounted for 37%of new orders, followed by China with 34% and Japan with 12%.

The above figures exclude military shipbuilding which is particularly important in the US andChina. Note that new build and m aintenance each account for around 50% of the annualmarket for new equipment.

The chart below shows that we expect a recovery in new com pletions from 2014 onwards.

Note that the new build price index tends to move in the sam e direction cyclically as

completions, so reinforcing the effect of an upswing in demand on value.

New Civil Shipbuilding Completions and the Price Index of New Ship Construction

Source: Korean Shipbuilders Association, Clarkson Research, EIF estimates

0

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Completions 000 tonnes New Build Price 2010=100

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Marine

Marine is divided into ship producti on and repair and harbours, docks and

canals. Requirements by world region and application are tabulated on Page

IV 69 below.

Market size depends mainly on the production of civil and naval vessels (in

Europe, Japan and USA/Canada) and commercial ships (concentrated in

South Korea, Japan and, most recently, China). China is developing rapidly

for both civil and naval work.

0 50 100 150 200 250

China

Pacific Rim

West Europe

USA/Canada

Middle East

Russia

India

Japan

Latin America

Africa

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Marine, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Marine - Changes in Market Size 2014-2019

Pacific Rim, China and West Europe are the main growth areas. The growth

of capacity in China is expected to exceed growth in all other countries. In

2010 China accounted for over 25% of world civil shipbuilding. In addition,

China is expanding capacity of naval shipbuilding.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

MARINE - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2014-2016

Propulsion Bilge Ballast Firefighting

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 3.6 7.8 3.9 5.4 1.3 22.0Other West Europe 24.7 53.4 26.6 36.7 9.1 150.4

Russia 7.3 15.8 7.9 10.9 2.7 44.5Other East Europe 3.4 7.2 3.5 4.9 1.2 20.2

Africa 4.3 9.1 4.5 6.2 1.6 25.5Middle East 14.0 30.0 15.0 20.6 5.1 84.6

China 37.8 81.4 40.4 55.9 13.8 229.3India 6.9 14.9 7.4 10.2 2.5 42.0Japan 6.7 14.4 7.2 9.9 2.4 40.5Pacific Rim 31.0 66.8 33.1 45.8 11.4 188.1Other Asia 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 6.4

USA/Canada 18.2 39.2 19.5 26.9 6.6 110.5Latin America 5.4 11.6 5.8 8.0 2.0 32.7

World 164.3 353.9 175.8 242.9 60.2 996.6

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIES

This section covers pump requirements for construction related sectors,

i.e. industrial and domestic heating and ventilating and construction

dewatering. Also considered are pump requirements for all other

industries. These include coal mining, agriculture and other

manufacturing.

Industrial Buildings

This category was formerly known as building services. It covers pumps

for heating, ventilating, air conditioning and fire services for industrial

and commercial buildings.

Page IV 72 shows two charts: market size (annual average 2014-2016)

and the change in market size 2014-2019.

The largest markets are in West Europe, China and USA/Canada. These

three world regions are also the most important in terms of the change in

market size, where the figures are strongly influenced by the collapse of

property prices and recession.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

0 200 400 600 800 1000

West Europe

China

Japan

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

India

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Russia

Industrial Buildings, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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Industrial Buildings, Market Change:2014-2019, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Construction Dewatering

Pump requirements are closely related to the size of the construction industry

in each country. This is reflected by the chart below, which shows m arket

size (average for three years 2014-2016).

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

West Europe

China

Japan

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Latin America

India

Africa

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Russia

Construction, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Market Growth for Construction Dewatering

The chart below shows the forecast change in market size for the period

2014-2019. China, West Europe and US/Canada are the main growth

areas.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Residential Buildings and Other Pumps

The category ‘residential buildings’ was formerly known as domestic pumps

for heating, ventilating and air conditioning.

The chart below shows annual average market size 2014-2016.

The market for domestic pumps is concentrated in the West Europe, China,

USA/Canada and Japan.

0 500 1000 1500

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Japan

Middle East

Pacific Rim

India

Other Asia

Latin America

Other East Europe

Africa

Russia

Residential, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Market Change for Residential Buildings and Other Pumps

The chart below shows the change in market size 2014-2019. Growth is

led by West Europe, China, US/Canada and Japan

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Other Industries

Pump requirements are related to the size of industrial production. This is

reflected by the chart below, which shows that the largest markets are in

China and the industrialised world.

0 500 1000 1500 2000

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Japan

Latin America

Middle East

India

Africa

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Russia

Other Industry, Market Size, Average 2014-16, $million current prices

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

Market Change for Other Industry

The chart below shows the change in market size 2014-2019. China,

West Europe and USA/Canada outstrip all other countries.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

New Estimates for Construction Dewatering

This year’s report contains new estimates for construction dewatering,

where market size has now been related to value added by the construction

industry in each country. World market size in 2012 remains about the

same but there have been some major reallocations across countries.

China is by far the largest world m arket for construction dewatering. A

comparison between market size in China and the USA is shown below.

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

China USA

Market size: Pumps for Construction Dewatering in China and the USA - $ millions

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIESPUMP REQUIREMENTS - Annual average 2014-2016

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Other Industry Other Industry Other Industry IndustrialBuildings

ResidentialBuildings

ConstructionDewatering

General Processes Water/Wastewater Total Total Total Total

Germany 79.2 305.4 384.7 354.6 510.8 250.2Other West Europe 227.2 877.4 1106.0 428.0 856.5 288.0

Russia 3.8 13.8 17.4 14.4 16.5 12.9Other East Europe 16.1 62.1 78.2 46.9 42.6 33.0

Africa 20.2 79.6 99.5 80.5 44.3 53.9Middle East 39.7 156.9 197.0 123.8 250.0 89.8

China 225.3 871.1 1096.5 555.4 829.1 511.2India 37.4 144.6 182.0 69.7 117.6 60.0Japan 66.9 259.1 325.9 322.4 453.9 243.9Pacific Rim 111.7 429.7 541.0 217.8 148.3 137.7Other Asia 9.3 36.5 46.0 41.8 74.5 27.7

USA/Canada 179.5 692.9 872.4 337.3 422.3 266.3Latin America 50.3 195.0 245.8 115.0 90.6 83.3

World 1066.5 4124.2 5192.5 2707.6 3856.9 2057.7

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The World Market for Pumps - Some Changes in Technology - Page V 1

© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

V SOME CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY

Introduction

In this section we will briefly revi ew some changes in technology which

have a major bearing on the pump market and the extent to which we have

been able to take them into account.

Technological change affects the pum p market on both the demand and

supply side. On the dem and side changes in technology influence trends

within each major end use industry. On the supply side new pump designs

and new types of ancillary equipment can have an impact on the market.

Demand Side Technological Change

One of the main merits of our approach to forecasting the pump market is

the sub-division by end use industry. For example, we sub-divide oil and gas

between onshore and offshore. Changes in technology have led to new types

of floating offshore platforms, deeper drilling and subsea developm ent

involving multi-phase pumps. Data on the market for multi-phase pumps is

fragmented and at present we do not identify them separately.

There are also some major technological changes affecting the pump

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

market for onshore oil and gas. We include liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the

onshore category and, although we do not identify LNG separately in this

report, other EIF work has been used to ensure that LNG is properly taken into

account in each of the identified 63 countries.

Supply Side Technological Change

Another major technological development concerning oil and gas is fracking,

which in the US has already unlock ed enormous supplies of gas, and,

increasingly oil. Fracking is transfor ming the US econom y but, apart from

Canada, its impact in the rest of the world is minimal at present. Fracking is a

dramatic demonstration of supply si de technological change on the pum p

market. We t ake full account of the im pact of fra cking on the demand for

pumps in oil and gas and chemicals in this report.

Another market segmentation in oil and gas concerns ‘artif icial lift’. We do

touch on this topic where ‘injection pumps’ are mentioned in the report but the

subject matter is broader than this. Howe ver, available data prevents a fuller

analysis. Oil service companies provide artificial lift using pumps where the

natural oil reservoir pressure is in sufficient. We know from examination of

reports and accounts of the major oil se rvice companies that the market for

artificial lift in 2012 was around $11 billion. But th is figure i ncludes much

more than the capital cost of pumps, which is probably only around one third

of the total.

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© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

A variety of pumps are used for artifi cial lift. Electro-submersible pumps

(ESP) are the most important, accounting for 46% of the market in 2012,

following by rod lift pum ps (nodding donkeys) which account for 31%.

There are indications that in recent years rod lift has improved is market

share at the expense of ESPs.

Finally, a supply side change that will be of growing im portance in future

is the developm ent of energy saving intelligent pumps (ESIPs). One

component of this topic is the growing use of variable speed drives Another

is instrumentation that will allow condition monitoring. The growth of

ESIPs will be important in future but at present there is no data to allow any

assessment of its importance.

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World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 1

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

APPENDIX - METHODOLOGY

The flow chart on Page 3 outlines the steps involved.

Historically, pump market estimates are made in two stages. The first stage is

to generate an initial set of pump demand estimates by applying estimated pump

content to fixed investment by 20 separate end use industries. The second stage

involves scaling the initial estimates so that the annual totals are consistent with

apparent pump consumption, calculated from total sales less exports plus

imports. All market sizes given in the report relate to complete pumps,

including prime movers.

Forecasts of the pump market for 2014-2019 are based on regression equations

estimated over the period 2001-2013. Equations are used to link (1) total

investment to GDP and then (2) investment by end use industry to total

investment. The initial forecasts of investment by end use industry are then

modified for special factors. Pump market forecasts are based on regression

equations which link the pump market by end use industry to investment by end

use industry.

Although the composition of demand by application within each end use can be

expected to change over time, we assume the same percentage breakdown from

year to year in the forecasts. This is probably realistic for a five year time

horizon.

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World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 2

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

The report is intended to show the detailed structural changes in the world

market for pumps by country, end use industry and pump application.

However, despite the detailed nature of the results, we cannot claim complete

coverage owing to data limitations. Errors are believed to be by omission,

rather than a major bias in the size and structure of the markets. For example,

our coverage of projects in mining is partial because there are known to be a

large number of relatively small projects not taken into account. We do not

properly cover some areas where retrofitting is important, eg pumps for

re-injection in the North Sea. On the other hand we do cover the constant

adaptation of oil refineries to meet new product requirements and emission

control. The table below shows our subjective assessment of the reliability of

results; A = 10%, B = 15%, C = up to 20%.

Oil & Gas A Marine C

Oil Refining A Mining B

Basic Chemicals A Pulp & Paper A

Other Chemicals A Water & Sewerage B

Food B Building Services C

Drink B Construction C

Pharmaceuticals B Other Industry C

Power Generation A Domestic C

Iron & Steel C

Non-ferrous Metals C

Reliability of Total Pump Market Estimates by End Use Industry

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World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 3

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2014

INVESTMENT FORECASTS

EIF Plant Investment Forecasts for 63Major Countries for 20 End Use

Industries in Each Country

APPLICATION ANALYSIS

EIF Analysis of Requirements forIndustrial Pumps

by End Use and Application

MARKET BY END USE

EIF Estimates for Industrial Pumpsby End Use in 63 Major Countries

MARKET BY APPLICATION

EIF Estimates of Market Size bycountry and application 2014-2019

Harmonisation ofdata on imports ofindustrial pumps

Analysis of Prod-uction, Trade andthe Market based ongovernment data inmajor countries,notably:United StatesGermanyUnited Kingdom

Europump countriesfrom EIF EuropumpMarket Report

METHODOLOGY

EIF new projectdatabase with 3,500projects worldwide,updated annually

EIF database oninvestment by enduse, from companyand governmentstatistics