1

World Petroleum MarketsWhat the Past Tells Us About the Future

April 11, 2008Capitol Hill

Washington, DC

Lucian PugliaresiLarry Kumins

Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc.Washington, DCwww.eprinc.org

2

IntroductionEnergy Policy Research Foundation Inc.

(EPRINC), formerly the Petroleum Industry ResearchFoundation Inc. (PIRINC)Founded in NY in 1944 Moved to Washington from NYC in Feb

2007 EPRINC brings policy analysis and

industry economics to bear on currentenergy issues

Note: All data in this presentation are from EIA unless otherwise noted. Summaryconclusions, comments, etc, are the sole responsibility of EPRINC.

3

TOPICS FOR TODAY

EPRINC’s Perspective on Structure and Pricing in the Upstream CrudeMarket (some history is useful)

Why Are Crude Prices So High Today?

What Does History and the Structure of the Crude Oil Market Tell UsAbout Policy Choices (and what is the problem we are trying tofix?)

Assessments of Trends in US and World Petroleum Product Markets

4

1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo

NOT AN EMBARGO, but instead a

•Structural Shift in Ownership and Control of the Resources of theMiddle East

•Fundamental Change in Expectations on Production from Middle EastProducers

As an Embargo it was a failure, market was integrated (lesson not yetlearned by Chavez)

5

1979 Price 1979 Price ““ShockShock””

OIL MARKET WAS NOT FRAGILE, but instead there was a shift in:OIL MARKET WAS NOT FRAGILE, but instead there was a shift in:

••expectations regarding regional risk; i.e. more riskyexpectations regarding regional risk; i.e. more risky

••Prospects for future output from Iran and Iraq were reducedProspects for future output from Iran and Iraq were reducedsubstantially, i.e., access to those reserves would now besubstantially, i.e., access to those reserves would now bedelayeddelayed

6

1986 Price Collapse Saudi Arabia abandons role as swing producer at low levels

of net demand for SA crude

Shift in expectations on Saudi decision making within OPECand as regulator of world oil market

Sustained reduction in oil use as a percentage of GNP inmajor Western countries

7

1998 Price Collapse: Six Central Issues1998 Price Collapse: Six Central Issues

Asian economic crisis bringsAsian economic crisis brings a collapse in net a collapse in netdemanddemand

•• OPEC misreads the oil market OPEC misreads the oil market•• Warm 1997-98 summers in N. America, Europe, Asia Warm 1997-98 summers in N. America, Europe, Asia•• Increase in Russian oil exports as Ruble collapses Increase in Russian oil exports as Ruble collapses•• Chinese authorities decrease imports in Q4 of 1998 Chinese authorities decrease imports in Q4 of 1998••UN authorizes increase in Iraqi exportation in 1998UN authorizes increase in Iraqi exportation in 1998•• Asian economic crisis brings Asian economic crisis brings a collapse in net a collapse in netdemanddemand

8

A Series of Unfortunate Events Leading to New Expectations

4.25.8

1.9 1.3 0.95 1.3 1.970

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e

Glo

ba

l P

ro

du

cti

on

, m

illi

on

b

/d

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

$/b

bl

World Oil Production (EIA) Expected Production (EIA 2001 Predictions) OPEC Excess Capacity (EIA) Crude Oil Price

Iraq invasion: outlookpositive for new oilfield rehabilitation

Positive Expectations Expectations Shift Negative Expectations

Yukos -- Kremlintaking control of

Russian oildevelopmentOil

development inIraq delayed

Russia takes overSakhalin II, Chavez

Nationalizes Projects

Nigeriarebelshurt

output

Continuing civilstrife in Sudan,

Nigeria

OPEC Excess Capacityremains limited

Congress continues banon ANWR and offshore

development

Outlook positive forexpanded output from

Nigeria, Mexico, Venez.,Russia, North Slope

9

The Peak Oil Problem:New Supplies Will Be More Expensive, but We Are

Not Running Out of Oil

10

San Joaquin ValleyTesting Hubbard-Method Predictions for Reserves and Production

(Billions of Barrels)

597(actual)18944-112Year 2000productionprojected in:(mmb/d)

16.1-16.211.9-12.18.0-9.5Cumulativeproduction as of

76%69%49%PercentAttributable to1915

16.111.87.7CumulativeDiscoveries

1964 1982 2000

Source: EPRINC, October 2006. Does the Hubbard Method Provide a Reliable Means for PredictingFuture Oil Production, Richard Nehring, October 2006,

11

Permian BasinTesting Hubbard-Method Predictions for Reserves and Production

(Billions of Barrels)

910(actual)326-479162-479Year 2000productionprojected in:(mmb/d)

35.8-37.528.5-30.519-27.5Cumulativeproduction as of

84%86%85%PercentAttributable to1950

35.227.917.6CumulativeDiscoveries

1964 1982 2000

Source: EPRINC, October 2006. Does the Hubbard Method Provide a Reliable Means for PredictingFuture Oil Production, Richard Nehring, October 2006,

12

What Does the Permian and San Joaquin Tell UsAbout the Hubbard Predictions

Knowledge and technology grow overtime

Big payoff to long term access to bothexisting and new oil provinces

More importantly Hubbard Method doesnot reveal………… The Backstop Price Total Recovery

13

WHAT DOES THIS ANALYSIS TELL US ABOUT THE ENERGY SECURITYPROBLEM?

Current Market Price Probably Tied to a “Perfect Storm” ofUnfortunate Events – More Than Declining Reserves (Peak Oil)

Longer Term Energy Security Problem Remains “A Concentration ofLow Cost Reserves Among Relatively Few Players.”

This Concentration of Low Cost Reserves Poses Risks to the US(wealth transfers, price spikes)

Focus on Import Dependence Not Likely to Fundamentally AddressEnergy Security Problem and Can Be Costly. Policy Focus Shouldbe On Reducing Vulnerability.

What Would be the Elements of an Effective Strategy Given ThisAnalysis?

14

The Refining Sector

Imbalances andUncertaintiesCapitol Hill Briefing

April 11, 2008

15

Declining Dollar Value Relative toForeign Currency Basket

Declining Dollar Relative Value to Foreign Currency Basket

60

70

80

90

100

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120

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Relative Value

Dollar peaked in Feb 2002. Currently, down 37% from Feb

2002 high.

16

Nominal and Dollar- Adjusted CrudePrices

Nominal and Dollar-Adjusted Crude* Price Contrasted

0

10

20

30

40

50

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70

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90

100

Janu

ary-00

July-

00

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ary-01

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ary-06

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06

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ary-07

July-

07

Janu

ary-08

($/b

bl) Nominal Crude Price

Currency Adjusted Crude Price

*Note: Actual Refiner Acquisition Cost

17

Whatʼs a Refinery?

Alkylation

CatalyticReforming

Isomerization

Coking

Fluid CatalyticCracking

Hydrocracking

Lubricants

Deasphalting

Hydrotreating

VacuumDistillation

AtmosphericDistillation

gas oils

residue

distillates

naphthas

gasesFuel GasPropane

GasolineBlendstocks

Jet Fuel

Diesel Fuels andHeating Oils

Gasoline andDistillate

Blendstocks

Lubricating Oils

Coke

Asphalt

18

Modular Investment in RefineryUpgrades

Need to:Make high specification productsMake cleaner gasolineMake gasoline for ethanol blendingMake ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD)Make across-the-board sulfur reductionAdjust to declining crude qualityReduce refinery site emissions

19

U.S. Oil Refineries History:1970 - Present

US Oil Refineries - History 1970 - Present

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

(00

0 b

/d)

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

# u

nit

s

Operable Capacity

Operable Refineries

* Many sub-economic, little ref ineries could not make

unleaded gasoline.

* Small unit issues: population shif t and US crude supply

runs out

20

U.S. Oil Refineries History:1970 - Present

1970s: The Small Refiner Bias in the 1973 price control programencouraged the building of excess small refineries.

1979: Price controls end. 1980-1990: Rationalization of refining.

Closure of small, uneconomic units - adversely impacted bypopulation and crude supply shifts.

Capacity at existing, better-located facilities expanded. Remaining refinery campuses become bigger, more efficient.

Mid-1990s: Capacity grows; demand grows faster. 2000s: More investment needed to expand existing refineries.

Regulatory issues Capital requirements and investment decisions

What happened to “Refining’s Golden Age?”

21

World Petroleum Consumption andRefining Capacity: 1980 - 2007

World Petroleum Consumption and Refining Capacity 1980 - 2007

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

(mil b

/d)

World Total Capacity

World Total Consumption

* Global excess

capacity until

early 1990s -

investment

climate?

* 2003: Demand

catches up with

capacity - China?

* 2007: Demand

exceeds

capacity?

22

U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Pump Prices2005 - 2008

Gasoline and Diesel Pump Prices 2005 - 2008

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Janu

ary-

05

Mar

ch-0

5

May

-05

July-0

5

Sep

tem

ber-05

Nov

embe

r-05

Janu

ary-

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Mar

ch-0

6

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-06

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tem

ber-06

Nov

embe

r-06

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7

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-07

July-0

7

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tem

ber-07

Nov

embe

r-07

Janu

ary-

08

Mar

ch-0

8

(cen

ts/g

al)

U.S. All Retail Gasoline

U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail

2005: Oldrelationship:Gaso pricesabove diesel.

2006:Relationshipchanges.

2007/8:Dramaticchange.

23

Global Distillate ConsumptionGrowth: 2003 - 2006

Distillate Consumption Growth 2003-2006

334

619744

2489

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

USA Europe China World

Thou

sand

bd

24

U.S. Refined Product Consumptionand Refining Capacity: 1973 - 2007

US Refined Product Consumption and Refining Capacity 1973 - 2007

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

(millio

ns b

/d)

Refining Capacity

Refining Consumption

25

U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Pump Prices2005 - 2008

Gasoline and Diesel Pump Prices 2005 - 2008

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Janu

ary-

05

Mar

ch-0

5

May

-05

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ber-05

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ber-06

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ber-07

Nov

embe

r-07

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ary-

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Mar

ch-0

8

(cen

ts/g

al)

U.S. All Retail Gasoline

U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail

2005: Oldrelationship:Gaso pricesabove diesel.

2006:Relationshipchanges.

2007/8:Dramaticchange.

26

U.S. Wholesale Gasoline Price andCrude Cost: 2006 - 2008

Wholesale Gasoline Price and Crude Cost

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

Mar

-06

Apr-0

6

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug-0

6

Sep-0

6

Oct

-06

Nov-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jan-

07

Feb-0

7

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

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7

Aug-0

7

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7

Oct

-07

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7

Dec-0

7

Jan-

08

Feb-0

8

Mar

-08

(cen

ts/g

al)

Crude Cost

Wholesale Gasoline Price

Note recentrefiner margincompression

27

Gasoline and Distillate Prices:NYH vs. Rotterdam

2006 - 2008Gasoline and Distillate: NYH vs. Rotterdam

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Jan-

06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

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-06

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-06

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-06

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-06

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-07

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-07

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7

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-07

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-07

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-07

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Feb-

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Mar

-08

cen

ts/g

allo

n

NYH RBOB

Rotterdam Gasoil

Rotterdam Gaso

•2006/7:Gaso &distillatepricestrack. NYHgaso hassummerspike.

•2007/8:Worlddistillatepricesexceedgasoline.

28

U.S. Wholesale Distillate Price andCrude Cost: 2005 - 2008

2005 - 2008 Wholesale Distillate Price and Crude Cost

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

Janu

ary-05

Mar

ch-0

5

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-05

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embe

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ary-06

Mar

ch-0

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May

-06

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6

Septembe

r-06

Nov

embe

r-06

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ary-07

Mar

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-07

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7

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r-07

Nov

embe

r-07

Janu

ary-08

Mar

ch-0

8

(cen

ts/g

al)

Crude Cost

Wholesale Distillate Price

29

Gasoline Imports as Percentage ofConsumption: 2005 - 2008

Imports Share of U.S. Gasoline Supply: 2005 - 2008

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

Janu

ary-05

Mar

ch-0

5

May

-05

July-

05

Septe

mbe

r-05

Nov

embe

r-05

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ary-06

Mar

ch-0

6

May

-06

July-

06

Septe

mbe

r-06

Nov

embe

r-06

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ary-07

Mar

ch-0

7

May

-07

July-

07

Septe

mbe

r-07

Nov

embe

r-07

Janu

ary-08

Mar

ch-0

8

%

Imports as % of Consumption

Noterecentdeclinein gasoimports

30

Imports Share of U.S. DistillateSupply: 2005 - 2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Janu

ary-05

Mar

ch-0

5

May

-05

July-05

Sep

tembe

r-05

Nov

embe

r-05

Janu

ary-06

Mar

ch-0

6

May

-06

July-06

Sep

tembe

r-06

Nov

embe

r-06

Janu

ary-07

Mar

ch-0

7

May

-07

July-07

Sep

tembe

r-07

Nov

embe

r-07

Janu

ary-08

Mar

ch-0

8

%

Distillate Imports as % of Consumption

Note steady distillate import decline

31

US Ethanol Consumption:2000 - Present

US Ethanol Consumption 2000 - Present

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Janu

ary-

00

July-

00

Janu

ary-

01

July-

01

Janu

ary-

02

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02

Janu

ary-

03

July-

03

Janu

ary-

04

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04

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ary-

05

July-

05

Janu

ary-

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July-

06

Janu

ary-

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July-

07

Janu

ary-

08

(00

0 b

/d)

US Ethanol Consumption

32

US Ethanol Consumption:2000 - Present Quick ramp-up made it look easy—but really was displacement of

MTBE Ethanol does not displace much foreign oil. 6 bil gallons per year of

ethanol saves approx 100 million bbls of oil. Corn prices have risen from $1.60 to $6.00. How much attributable to

ethanol driven demand? $1.00? $2.00? At $1.00/bu, oil saved cost $130/bbl; at $2.00/bu, the figure is $230 per

bbl. Current Ethanol Economics Looks Dicey—With high corn prices, low

fuel ethanol prices, existing plants earn losses. Existing plants have 7 bil gal capacity; mandate calls for 2 bil more Plants under construction and planned may not be completed/brought

on line If corn prices remain stable at current levels, ethanol prices must rise

by at least $0.50 per gallon in order for ethanol to be sufficientlyprofitable to attract investment.

More capacity needed to meet 9 bil gal mandate for 2008

33

CBOT Ethanol Futures versus CBOTCorn Futures

34

Ethanol Production Cost ($/Gal)

Sources: Simmons & Company International; EPRINC Calculations

-0.050.36Remaining To Cover FixedCosts/Profit

2.552.14Subtotal

-0.41-1.03Co-product credit

2.142.31Corn ($6/bu)

0.520.56Miscellaneous Inputs

0.300.30Natural Gas

Dry MillWet MillCost

Ethanol Production Cost ($/gal.)

35

U.S. Retail Prices: Gasoline vs. Diesel2006 - 2008

Retail Prices: Gasoline vs. Diesel Jan 2006 - April 2008

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

06

Feb-0

6

Mar

-06

Apr-0

6

May

-06

Jun-

06

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6

Aug-0

6

Sep-0

6

Oct

-06

Nov-0

6

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6

Jan-

07

Feb-0

7

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-0

7

Sep-0

7

Oct

-07

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7

Dec-0

7

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08

Feb-0

8

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

(cen

ts/g

al)

US Regular - All

US Diesel - All

US Ultra Low Sulfur

US Low Sulfur

36

Global Oil Consumption –All Products and Middle Distillates

Global Oil Consumption - All Products and Middle Distillates

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

00

0 (

b/d

)

Total World

Middle Distillates

37

U.S. Distillate Imports by SulfurContent: 2005 - 2008

US Distillate Imports by Sulfur Content: 2005 - 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-

05

Mar-

05

May-

05

Jul-

05

Sep-

05

Nov-

05

Jan-

06

Mar-

06

May-

06

Jul-

06

Sep-

06

Nov-

06

Jan-

07

Mar-

07

May-

07

Jul-

07

Sep-

07

Nov-

07

Jan-

08

Mar-

08

(000 b

/d)

0 -15 ppm

15 - 500 ppm

500 - 2000 ppm

> 2000 ppm

38

U.S. Distillate Consumption andImports: 2005 - 2008

US Distillate Consumption and Imports 2005 - 2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Janu

ary-05

March

-05

May

-05

July-05

Sep

tembe

r-05

Nov

embe

r-05

Janu

ary-06

March

-06

May

-06

July-06

Sep

tembe

r-06

Nov

embe

r-06

Janu

ary-07

March

-07

May

-07

July-07

Sep

tembe

r-07

Nov

embe

r-07

Janu

ary-08

(000 b

/d)

US Distillate Consumption

US Distillate Imports

39

U.S. Gasoline Consumption andImports: 2005 - 2008

U.S. Gasoline Consumption and Imports: 2005 - 2008

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

January

-05

Marc

h-0

5

May-

05

July

-05

Septe

mber-

05

Nove

mber-

05

January

-06

Marc

h-0

6

May-

06

July

-06

Septe

mber-

06

Nove

mber-

06

January

-07

Marc

h-0

7

May-

07

July

-07

Septe

mber-

07

Nove

mber-

07

January

-08

Marc

h-0

8

(000 b

/d)

U.S. Gasoline Imports

U.S. Gasoline Consumption

40

Capitol Hill BriefingApril 11, 2008

THE END