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Transcript of World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Role of...
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster Risk Management
And Progress with WMO DRR Programme
By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Division
www.wmo.int
WMO
Wind Storm 42.2%
Earthquake 21.5%
Extreme Temperature
2.1%
Tsunami0.6%
Slides 0.4%
Wild Fires 2.4%
Flood 25.5%
Drought 5.0%
Drought 30%
Flood 10.4%
Wild Fires 0.1%
Slides 1.1%
Tsunami12.2%
Volcano 1% Extreme
Temperature 5.4%
Epidemic 9.6%
Earthquake 15.8%
Wind Storm 14.6%
Wind Storm 27.2%
Drought 4.8%
Flood 33.1%
Wild Fires 3.4%
Insect Infestation
0.9%
Slides 4.8%
Tsunami0.4%
Volcano 1.6%
Extreme Temperature
3.8%
Epidemic 12.0%
Earthquake 8.1%
Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by
Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
90 % of events 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses
are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.
Economic losses
Loss of life
Number ofevents
Earthquake 6%
Wind Storm 11%
Epidemic 2%
Flood 3%
Tsunami 75%
Slides 2%
Earthquake 10%
Epidemic 7%
Extreme Temperature
1%
Volcano 6%
Tsunami1%
Slides 8%
Wild Fires 4%
Flood 27%
Drought 3%
Wind Storm 33%
RA V Distribution of Disasters Caused by
Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
83% of events 18 % of casualties 79% of economic losses
are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.
Economic losses
Loss of life
Number ofevents Wind Storm
23%
Earthquake 11%
Volcano 1%
Tsunami 9%
Wild Fires 19%
Flood 14%
Drought 23%
Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural
hazards (1980-2007)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses
Emerging Opportunities for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
….• Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused
on post disaster response in most countries!
• New paradigm in disaster risk management - Investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer ….
– Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 by 168 countries (Kobe, Japan)
Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate
information and services!
Shift From Post Disaster Response to Ex Ante Investments in Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
(Development Issue)
Risk TransferRisk Assessment
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning
MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training
National to Local LevelsAlignment of Multi-sectoral coordination, planning, legislation,
resources
2
1
4
3
Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise !
Intensity
Frequency
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Strong Wind
Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement
PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture
EnergyEnergy
Urban areasUrban areas
Need forMulti-sectoral risk
management
Drought
TransportationTransportationAral SeaAral SeaHazard intensity and frequency increasing linked
to climate variability and change!
Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !
Understanding the Risks is Fundamental!
Hazard Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure and
Vulnerability
Potential Loss
Estimates
Analysis and Tools for
Emergency Management and Sectoral
Planning
Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping
Impacts: population agricultural land urban gridInfrastructureBusinesses
Number of lives at risk
$ at riskDestruction of buildings and infrastructure
Reduction in crop yields
Business interruptionNMHS provide
hazard data, statistical analysis
and forecasts
Need for Socio-economic impacts
data
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide hazard data and analysis
to support risk assessment
Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)
Nu
mb
er
of
co
un
trie
s t
ha
t a
rch
ive
d
ata
fo
r th
e s
pe
cif
ied
ha
zard
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Strong w
inds
Thunder
storm
or l
ight
ning
Drough
t
Heat w
ave
Flash
floo
d
River
floodin
g
Hails
torm
Dense
fog
Cold w
ave
Heavy
sno
w
Smoke
, Dust
or H
aze
Hazar
ds to
avi
atio
n
Earth
quakes
Coasta
l flo
oding
Tropic
al c
yclo
ne
Forest
or w
ildla
nd fire
Lands
lide o
r mudsl
ide
Freez
ing
rain
Storm
surg
e
Tornad
o
Wate
rborn
e haz
ards
Airborn
e su
bstanc
es
Mar
ine h
azar
ds
Sandst
orm
Avala
nche
Tsuna
mi
Volcan
ic e
vents
Deser
t locu
st s
war
m
Main Challenges:
• Modernisation of observation networks
• Data rescue
• Data management systems
• Maintaining standard hazard database and metadata
• Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling
Over 70 % of NMHS globally, are challenged in delivering these services!
Marine
Health (etc.)…
Geological
COMMUNITIES AT RISK
hazard warning
NationalGovernment
(emergency systems)
Hydrological
Meteorological
National Technical Services
disasterresponse
Many countries are still in response and relief mode!
haz
ard
war
nin
g
Local government
Disa
sterresp
on
se
hazard warning
Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up…
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
4 11 1424
47
88
160
345
103
495
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
decade
0.05
2.66
0.17
1.73
0.39
0.65
0.22 0.25
0.67
0.22
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Millions of casualties per decade
decade
While casualties related to hydro-
meteorological disasters are
decreasing
Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies
National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms
1 2
3 4
NationalGovernment
DRR coordination mechanisms
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health, Agricuture (etc.)
Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries
feedback
feed
bac
k
Community Preparedwar
nin
gs
warnings
feedback
2
4
3
5
54
4
5
Shift to Preparedness through Investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems !
Local Government
responsible for emergency
preparedness and response
Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination
1
warnings
Guidelines on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation in Early Warning Systems
Role of NMHS
First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO in cooperation with Members and international agencies.
Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard ApproachPlanning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles
Synthesis of Good Practices and Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services
Bangladesh Cyclone
Preparedness Programme
Cuba ropical Cyclone Early Warning
System
France “Vigilance System”
Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency
Preparedness Programme
Focus: Planning, legislation and Institutional partnerships and coordination at national to local levels
Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management agencies and National Metrological and Hydrological Services, Media, other relevant ministries
Training Programme:• Training on good practices and “Capacity development in Multi-
Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation”
• Interactive session to assess national capacities, gaps, priorities• Identification of opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects
Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)
Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach
Consideration for:
• Leveraging Resources and Capacities
• Cost-effectiveness
• Inter-operability
• Maintenance and sustainability
Climate information and forecasting tools provide unprecedented opportunities to support sectoral risk
assessment and management!
• Agricultural productivity and food security• Infrastructure and Urban planning• Land zoning• Tourism• Health epidemics• Water resource management
Warning systems have focused on protection of lives BUT…
Advancements in climate modelling and forecasting provide unprecedented opportunities
for Disaster Risk Management
Season to yearNext hour to
10 daysDecade
Long term climate change
Short to medium term weather
forecasts
Seasonal to inter-annual
climate forecasts
Decadal climate trend
analysis
Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness
International negotiations with national policy implications
Climate change
scenarios
Decision-making Timelines
Long-term strategic planningInfrastructures planning, retrofittingLand zoning
Medium-term operational planningRisk assessment and management
Requirements of Financial Risk Transfer Markets For Meteorological and Climate Information
What type of Financial tools?
Which Risks? Who Could Benefit?
Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and
derivatives
Regional Catastrophe
Insurance Facilities
Other emerging products
Government
Companies
Individuals
Other
Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these
markets!)
Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
Long term trend analysis (long-term
market strategy)
Financial risks
WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)
USER Perspectives:
• Information requirements (data and forecasts):– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)
– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)
– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
– Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy)
• Technical support and Service delivery
Meteorological Services Perspectives:
• Need for awareness raising among Met services
• Resources, ability and priorities to deliver
• “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility
Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer
Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Global Framework for Climate ServicesUser interface in Disaster Risk Management
Example of Climate Information users in DRM
Their needs and requirements
Inte
rnat
ion
al
Re
gio
nal
Na
tion
al
•Development Banks & Agencies
•Humanitarian Agencies
•Multinational Companies (Agriculture, energy, transport, reinsurance/finance, etc)
•Regional Development Banks
•Regional Economic groupings
•Regional DRM Agencies
•River basin organisations
•DRM Agencies
•Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Environment, Tourism, Water,etc
•Cities & Local Governments
•Private sector
•Public
Mechanism for coordination and
user interface
•ISDR
•UNDG
•IASC
•UNGPDRR
•Global Reports (GAR, HDR, etc)
•Regional DRR Platform•Regional Cooperation Projects
•National DRM coordination mechanisms / Platforms (Multi-Sectoral)•Sectors and national projects
•Global risk assessment•Global climate data and analysis•Climate outlooks•Forecast information
•Regional risk analysis
•Regional outlooks and forecasts
•Regional data
•Risk assessments •national•local•sectoral
•Early warnings
•Outlooks
•Data
Climate
Services
Information
System
Observations & Monitoring
Research, Modeling & Prédiction
1. Disaster Risk Management is a development issue
2. Capacity development of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming
Key Messages:
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in
2003 to …
DRR Programme’s Strategic Foundation
WMO Strategic Plan
2008-2015(Top Level Objectives and
Five Strategic Thrusts)
Hyogo Framework for Action
2005-2015
(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)
WMO strategic priorities
in Disaster Risk Reduction
Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National
network and partners
WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction
Approved by WMO Congress - XV
To implement DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results:
1. Modernized NMHSs and observing networks.
2. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.
3. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities.
4. Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies.
5. Trained management and staff of NMHS
6. Enhanced ministerial and public awareness
WMO DRR Strategy
Key Questions:
• Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands?
• How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda?
WMO Country-level DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
139 countries participated
1. National policies and legislation2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in
monitoring, forecasting, communications3. Hazard databases4. Forecasting and Warning Capacities5. Human resources (technical, managerial)6. Operational partnerships with disaster
risk management stakeholders
Assessed Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html
139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate
24/5254 %
25/3474 %
10/1283 %
18/2282 %
14/1974 %
44/4892 %
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html
Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses
Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses
ScopeNumber of surveys
receivedTotal number of
countries% Response
Global (WMO Members) 139 187 74%
Developing countries 85 137 62%
Least Developed countries 25 50 50%
Africa (RA I) 28 52 54%
Asia (RA II) 25 34 74%
South America (RA III) 10 12 83%
Central and North America (RA IV) 18 22 82%
South-West Pacific (RA V)
14 19 74%
Europe (RA VI) 44 48 92%
Country-Level Capacity Assessment (2006)http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html
Category
Planning &
Legislation
Infrastructure:
Observation
Forecasting
Telecom.
Data, Analysis
and Technical
Capacities
Partnerships
&
Concept of Operations
% countries
1 Need for development in all areas 12
2 Need for improvements in all areas 42
3 Self sufficientNeed for improvements
in these areas 26
4Self sufficient
Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines
20
Under estimated
Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!
WMO DRR Strategy
Key Questions:• Can National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services meet these demands?
• How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda and systematicall and sustainably develop their capacities?
WMO DRR Strategy: Engaging in National and Regional Development Projects with partners that
influence National Programmes and Funding
PartnersAgency Type
Coordination
National DRR Implementatio
nFunding
World Bank
(GFDRR)Development X X
ISDRCoordination X X
UNDPDevelopment
XX X
WFP, FAO Agriculture X X X
UN- OCHA, IFRC Humanitarian X X
Donors (EC, etc)Donor
X
Regional Centers and agencies X
XX
Criteria for DRR Project Development
(1) Alignment with WMO Strategic priorities in DRR
(2) Built on priorities, and needs of regions and countries
(3) Built on partnerships and integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and partners’ expertise and resources)
(4) Result-based approach (Deliverables, timelines, evaluation)
(5) Must be scalable
(6) Plans for sustainability of capacities overtime
(6) Ensure end-to-end solutions leading to better decision-making
(7) Extra-Budgetary resource mobilization strategy for implementation (if needed)
1) Develop training materials 2) Link training workshops to regional
and national development projects
Two Tier approach to training and capacity development
Monitoring and Evaluation of
national practices
Identification and Documentation of latest technologies, Good Practices and
learning Lessons
Development of Guidelines and
standards
National and Regional
training and development
Projects
Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects
Linking Training systematically with
Institutional Capacities development projects
WMO Guidelines and training in DRR Available for
• Early Warning Systems - – First training materials on institutional aspects will be published in
2009(with Springer Verlag)- Joint training between NMHS and DRM– Various technical training available through WMO Programmes and
Commissions
• Standardization of Hazard data, metadata and analysis tools (Technical Commissions)– Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and
other meteorological hazards underway through Technical Commissions
• Training materials for NMHS in support of financial risk transfer markets– Experiences of several National Meteorological Services will be
documented in 2010 in light of several pilots facilitated through World Bank, WFP and other.
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO
South East Europe
Central Asia and Caucasus
South East Asia
IGAD
SADC
Central America and Caribbean
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects
2007 20092008 2010 2011
(Africa)
(Asia)
(South America)
(North America & Carribeans)
(Asia-Pacific)
(Europe)
Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS
Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo
DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)
DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)
DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)
End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO,
NOAA, IFRC)
Sample Projects
South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme
World Bank / ISDR / WMO / UNDP Programme – initiated in 2007
• Three Components:– Risk Management Capacities
– Hydro meteorological services
– Catastrophe Insurance facility and financial risk transfer
Phase I: Assessments • Detailed national assessment• Funded by GFDRR
• 11 countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Slovenia, Turkey
SEEDRMAP Phase IIEC Enlargement Project
• Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in SEE (EC DG Enlargement 2 M € funding)
8 Countries
Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Turkey
– UNDP Component 1: Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South East Europe
– WMO Component 2: Regional Cooperation in South East Europe for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction
• World Bank National DRR Projects– Albania, Croatia, Moldova
SEEDRMAP Phase IIEC Enlargement Project
• To facilitate the establishment of a Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Western Balkans and Turkey.
• To support development of national platforms
• To increase the availability of reliable regional level data that is crucial for Vulnerability Assessment, Disaster Planning and Early Warning.
• To enhance contribution of NMHS to DRR at national and regional levels.
Expected Outcomes of the SEE Project
• National experts are trained in:– Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems– Flood hazard data, metadata and mapping tools– Drought hazard data, metadata and mapping tools
• National proposals prepared for:– development of Early Warning Systems– development of risk assessment capacities
• Proposal for concrete initiatives for regional cooperation in SEE region
WITHUND
P
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Pilot Project on End-to-End Early Warning Systems
for Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Central America
Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua• Objectives: Development on end-to-end EWS
– Operationally linking NMHS capacities to support community emergency preparedness and action
– Development and demonstration of inter-agency Concept of Operations among national to local partners
• Hazards: Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods• Partners:
– National: NMHS, Disaster Risk Managment Agencies, Red cross
– International/Regional: World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, OCHA, WFP, ISDR
– Technical: NOAA, NASA Servir (TBC)• Status: Assessments completed and Detailed
proposal developed with partners and submitted for funding to GFDRR
Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in Africa
Funded by GFDRR
Burundi
Rwanda
Sudan
Eritria
Ethiopia
Djibouti
Somalia
Kenya
Uganda
Tanzania
• Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda
• Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies
• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management
• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:
• Partners– National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,
ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)
• Status: Project was launch on June 2009
Good Practices in EWSShanghai Multi-Hazard
Early Warning System (Mega City)•Governance : (mega) city-level.
•Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up
•Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools
Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.
For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction DivisionTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. [email protected]
http://www.wmo.int/disasters
Thank You