WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION_________________________

EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs

TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING

MIAMI, FLORIDA, USA

2 TO 6 NOVEMBER 2015

FINAL REPORT

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1. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING

1.1 Opening of the meeting

1.1.1 Dr. Richard Knabb welcomed the members to the meeting. He spoke of the importance of sharing our knowledge to benefit the tropical cyclone activities in all of the basins. Dr Xu Tang spoke of the importance of the TCP in coordinating activities among the regional and global TC communities.

1.1.2 Dr. Tang formally opened the 8th RSMC/TCWC TCM on behalf of the Secretary General and graciously thanked the host, RSMC Miami, for providing the venue and organization of the meeting. He thanked all of the participating members for their contributions during the week. He went on to say following the recent event of Hurricane Patricia, this type of gathering is important to highlight the need for global coordination. The tropical cyclone warning programs are critical parts of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS). Following the Sendai, Japan Disaster Risk Reduction meeting, initiatives toward establishing MHEWSs will result in proactive contributions by members on improvements and expansions of existing systems. This committee will play a role in implementing the framework on DRR from the Sendai meeting. The role of the TCM needs to be strengthened in this global coordination and continue to work with Commissions like the CBS to assist in the implementation of improvements.

1.1.3 The list of participants is given in Annex1.

1.2 Election of the chairperson and vice-chairperson

1.2.1 Dr Richard Knabb was unanimously accepted as the Chairperson for the TCM-8. Dr Mike Bergin was also accepted as the Vice Chairperson for this meeting.

1.3 Adoption of the agenda

1.3.1 Members agreed the agenda was appropriate and very full of important issues to discuss. Some concerns were expressed over the appropriateness of item 4.3.4, given that the WMO Global Initiative for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (WMO-GIFT) is very early in its development and wasn’t fully discussed during the 17th WMO Congress (Cg-XVII), though it was supported in the budget documents. Dr. Peng explained the reason for its inclusion at this time was to discuss the advantages of global coordination of TC activities and to develop the role of the TCM in that coordination. The TCP is looking to the TCM to discuss, coordinate and make a recommendation back to WMO Executive Council (EC) in order to develop the program for the coming years. The Chair felt this item could be kept on the agenda in order to have an open discussion and develop a TCM perspective based on all members’ input.

1.3.2 The Agenda is adopted as presented.

2. FOLLOW-UP ACTION ON THE SEVENTH TC RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING

2.1 Tropical Cyclone Advisory for international civil aviation and coordination with WAFCs

2.1.1 The various RSMCs/TCWCs presented on their progress toward producing graphical and text products to the Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center (TCAC). Given different relationships between those bodies within the Regions progress has been at a different pace. At the minimum, all are producing text TCAs for the TCAC and a number of the Members are producing graphical products as well. It was suggested that a future requirement was being discussed for TCAC products in the XML/GML formats and that TCM should endeavour to stay in touch with this progress.

2.1.2 Recommendation: The TCM requested that the TCP coordinated within the WMO, through the relevant Technical Commission, to work with ICAO to ensure the TCAC aviation requirements were discussed among the WMO Permanent Representatives of the TCAC/RSMC/TCWC’s to ensure regional coordination and that the implementation plans meet ICAO regulation requirements. Additionally, the TCM supported that, in order to improve coordination, ICAO representation should be offered at the Regional Association tropical cyclone meetings.

2.2 Collaboration with Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)

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2.2.1 Ken Knapp (NOAA/National Center for Environmental Information) presented to the TCM. IBTrACS was borne out of the Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-6). . Work started in 2007 and is being updated annually since 2008. It is comprised of many nations and agencies working together. The Best Track (BT) is focused on TCs and their impacts on life and property world-wide. The information is meant to be kept for generations to come (data stewardship). IBTrCAS have held workshops and will be holding the next one in Feb 2016 in Hawaii. It’s more than just climatology. Various users have access to the information and the three most important uses of BT data are:

Improving forecasts (building better models, statistical output and forecast tools); Assisting emergency managers plan and prepare,and; Improving management of our national resources (coastline, ports, estuaries, etc.).

2.2.2 Since IWTC6, the goal of IBTrCAS has been to support the work that leads to the best uniform, global TC dataset. While BT data is produced regionally, it will be used globally. IBTrACS is working toward a unified dataset. The data is shown as provided by the agencies with no averaging of information from the original source and the data is attributable to the originating agency. There is a desire at some point in the future that there would be a single representation of a single storm. More discussion and negotiation of common analysis practices will be required.

2.2.3 IBTrACS is requesting that one or two more pieces of data are tracked. Wind radii are an important data addition because it speaks to potential impact and IBTrACS can help provide some standards for this. An additional piece of metadata would be the quality code for the wind report (e.g. in situ obs, volunteer report, remote sensed, estimate technique, etc.).

2.2.4 The three important messages that Mr Knapp wanted the TCM to take away are: 1) best track data is important for many reasons; 2) continued coordination is vital; and 3) IBTrACS provides an interface between the users.

2.2.5 Three things agencies could do to contribute: 1) ensure best track data compilation is high quality; 2) support the work toward a “singular, uniform, global BT data set”; 3) report “one” more parameter (wind radii and wind quality metadata).

2.2.6 Recommendations:

The TCM strongly endorsed the priority of gathering the best track data to enable the development of a high quality global dataset. This historical data was important for: forecast improvements; understanding our current and past environment (climate trending); developing policies for mitigation and protection efforts in vulnerable communities; and providing a solid framework for outreach and education purposes with our local authorities and the public.

The TCM recognized the resource challenge faced by the Members and endorsed every effort that could be applied to the Best Track data gathering activities and recommended consistent and appropriate resources are applied at the agency level for timely post-analysis of tropical cyclones, in order to provide high quality Best Track data. The TCM also encouraged the inclusion of Best Track standards and practices in the Regional Association Operational Plans.

The TCM also endorsed participation by contributing members at the upcoming IBTrACS workshop in February 2016, Honolulu, Hawaii to allow for common practice development and technical discussions around data collection and analysis including discussions of the IWTC recommendation related to wind radii.

2.3 Operational forecasts/advisories, watches and warnings – Requirements

2.3.1 Improved accuracy of the forecast of TC RSMCs/TCWCs

2.3.1.1 Presentations from the RSMCs/TCWCs included progress on forecast accuracy with both track and intensity. There had been clear improvements to track error reductions over the past years, however the intensity forecasts have shown less of a trend with higher variability from year to year on success rates.

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2.3.1.2 Regarding operational practices, most Centres update regularly every 6 hours with full forecast track and intensity information. There are also procedures to increase the update frequency as the TCs threaten coastal areas and land, which are typically at a 3 hour time step.These updates typically cover current location along with strength and direction of motion and not a new track forecast. In addition, a number of the Services issue 1 hour updates once the TC is close to landfall and within radar coverage, providing updates on location and current intensity.

2.3.1.3 With the availability of radar on-line, it was expressed by members the importance for an update from the Service within those 3 hour intervals to serve the media in order to minimize speculation and misinterpretation and continue to deliver the message of the watches and warnings being on track. It was noted by some Services that there are challenges with the hourly updates when the eye is exhibiting a trocoidal motion, which may lead to misinterpretation among the media on tracks changing in the short-term. It was felt by the majority of the members, that consistent media messaging within those 3 hours of landfall is critical and that the purpose of updates would be to reinforce the messaging and threats, rather than the specific location. Without those updates there is a risk of speculation that could harm the message.

2.3.1.4 The Chair explained the process at RSMC Miami with their approach to the media pool. They begin the hour with a generic briefing meant for all of the media, followed by negotiated scheduled interviews throughout the hour, providing specific media outlets with time-slots for interviews. These are delivered by the Director of the Hurricane Center, particularly during domestic landfall. They are balancing these briefings with the emergency management community and the weather service internal briefings. The importance of the talking points, or media sound bites within their tropical bulletins have been highlighted through a number of cases this season including Hurricanes Patricia and Joaquin. This contributes to consistent messaging.

2.3.1.5 A good conversation took place on the role of the Director during an event. Some Services bring the Director to the forefront, while others have the Director engaged with the media during the most significant of events. Other Services have the Director play a forecasting or strategic planning and internal briefing role during their events while they employ senior spokespeople to work with the media. It has been demonstrated by a number of Services that there is benefit to mass media briefings ahead of an event where the agencies invite the media together to visit the Centre for a joint briefing in order to deliver a consistent message at one time to several media outlets. Often there are follow up individual briefings, but time can be saved during a crisis with the approach of a mass media briefing. It was also noted that inviting partners, such as the emergency management authorities, to these mass briefings provide them an opportunity to deliver their critical messaging in addition to those of the meteorological service before, during or after an event. It was agreed by the members that there is high value in spending the effort before and after an event in developing the relationship with the media so that during the event there is trust and appropriate expectations. 2.3.2 Requirements of the observational data and the NWP guidance

2.3.2.1 The Chair opened the discussion expressing concern over availability of scatterometer data and satellite ocean surface vector winds. It was expressed that there is a need to prioritize future satellite missions to enable satellite ocean surface vector winds at the surface of a hurricane. The RSMC Miami believed this was the single largest gap in observational data for the TC community. In the interim, the USA has placed a technology (RapidScat) on the International Space Station in order to have scatterometer data in a limited swath. Currently NOAA is seeking data sharing agreements for available and future satellite missions, however this data sharing should be broader.

2.3.2.2 RSMC La Reunion expressed that other much valuable high resolution ocean surface wind data exist, like those provided by RadarSat2, Sentinel 1 (or SMOS). While they were given the opportunity to view some of these data, it has not been possible to get access to them more routinely due to the lending costs of these commercial data.. RSMC New Delhi works with OceanSat 2 and they have worked with their space agency to provide requirements for scatterometer data for future missions.

2.3.2.3 The meeting was informed that China is now operating FY-2E at 86.5°E, maintaining observation coverage of the Indian Ocean. The data is disseminated through CMACast. China confirmed its plan to operate a FY-3 satellite on the early-morning orbit starting with FY-3E. This will improve temporal sampling of the atmosphere. The new generation geostationary satellite will be FY-4. China has bilateral arrangement with EUMETSAT, ensuring regional data exchange.

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2.3.2.4 All Centres expressed the importance of ocean surface vector winds for the analysis and forecast process. International collaboration will be the key to making this data accessible. Discussions included the challenge of evaluating the benefit of this type of data, given the expense of satellite missions.

2.3.2.5 Recommendations: The TCM reaffirmed the importance of the ocean surface vector winds satellite capability as a key component to a successful TC Program given the data sparsity in the ocean environment. The data are critical for not only assessing the pre-TC environment, but surface storm structure (wind maxima location and banding). Additionally Members are strongly encouraged to influence the satellite mission priorities within their countries respective agencies to include ocean surface vector wind capabilities.

2.3.2.6 The TCM expressed the importance of the data sharing arrangements regarding the satellite datasets related to ocean surface vector winds and encouraged the SG to develop mechanisms among the membership to expand existing data sharing agreements for the benefit of all of the Members.

2.3.2.7 The TCM encouraged Members to develop bi-lateral agreements for data sharing and demonstrate the value of these arrangements. These bi-lateral agreements could then be expanded on a case by case basis to add other Members within the Regional Associations.

2.3.2.8 RSMC La Reunion mentioned another potential data source for in situ measurements. The Aeroclipper is a balloon tethered to a drifting buoy with an instrument package. An experiment by the European Space Agency showed the benefit of such a platform. In one experiment two balloon platforms were captured in the eye of a tropical system and travelled with the storm for days, providing observations for the life-cycle of the eye (both a balloon-level and ocean-level measurement gondola). ESA is planning on a future experiment with a simplified version of the balloon. This may be an observational platform that deserves further investigation.

2.3.2.9 RSMC Tokyo spoke of the importance of radar data sharing between countries within the Region. Systematic radar data sharing is not just important for the operational program, but in the post analysis phase. In addition, interest was expressed regarding the access to more global ensemble prediction system information for TC forecasting track output that is available globally. There may be NWP model information being produced by some services that are not yet shared globally that could be of use to other agencies. It was mentioned that there are efforts to bring the JMA Global Model TC tracker into the RSMC Miami suite of model input for the forecast process. JMA would appreciate any model verification feedback in order to contribute to model improvement. This was also discussed in IWTC portion of the meeting where recommendations will be identified.

2.3.2.10 Recommendation: The TCM endorsed radar data sharing within the Regions for all Members to assist in the analysis and forecast processes.

2.3.2.11 The 3rd party data is a new opportunity and challenge for weather services. Observational data sources from other agencies, private companies and social media are growing rapidly. Valuable first-hand severe weather information is becoming available, but quality is of concern. Volunteer weather spotters are a valuable resource, but require effort to manage. Contacting emergency managers or first responders to verify information in the field is also a good confirmation source. The use of Twitter continues to grow, however it can be overwhelming and hard to verify. One suggestion was to develop and share within the warning messages preferred Twitter tags for weather observations to allow the forecaster to focus on specific weather Twitter feeds which could help in the forecast and verification process. The Network of Network approach is being used by a number of agencies where they can negotiate data sharing agreements from trusted sources allowing ingest into their own operational systems.

2.4 Training

2.4.1 Attachment of forecasters to RSMCs during the cyclone season

2.4.1.1 A number of Attachment programs have been supported in a few Regional Associations recently. Future Attachments will be discussed in order to align with future budget allocations. It was noted that the one-week RA-IV Hurricane American Attachment Program, delivered through RSMC Miami, was not listed in the report.

2.4.2 Training courses and workshops

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2.4.2.1 The TCP listed TC-related courses and workshops delivered this past year. In addition to residency and in-person training, the WMO is also supporting Distance Learning access to training with connections to the COMET program offerings.

2.4.2.2 Dan Brown, NHC Miami, summarized a number of training opportunities provided within the National Weather Service following an analysis of training gaps. The NHC worked with COMET in order to improve the distance learning modules related to TC and Storm Surge now available to all COMET users. New TC related COMET modules have been added: Introduction to Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge; Understanding Heights and Vertical Datums; Storm Surge and Datums; Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge; Use of Probabilistic Surge Guidance in Local Storm Surge Forecasting; Determining the Onset and Risk of Tropical Cyclone Winds; Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty; and Use of Probabilistic Guidance in Local Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasting. They can be found at: www.meted.ucar.edu/

2.4.2.3 Last year within RA-IV, the Hurricane Committee adapted the hurricane competencies developed in Australia to the RA-IV structure. The Region developed a 3-tier approach to competency requirements based on the responsibilities and expectations of the members within the Region. The RSMC Miami held a workshop this past year, in advance of the annual Hurricane Committee meeting, to raise knowledge and awareness of the RSMC product suite and to address a number of the proposed competencies. It was expected this approach would also be taken in advance of the next Hurricane Committee meeting associated with an upcoming AMS Hurricane Conference. These competencies will also be worked into the curriculum with the 2-week RA-IV hurricane forecasting course delivered annually in March of the year. The RSMC tailors their training program to three different groups: emergency managers; meteorologists; and the media. The training is focused on the Region and domestically, though opportunities have been offered internationally, external to the Region, from time to time.

2.4.2.4 An observation was made that it would be important moving forward to align training with the competencies being developed. In those Regions where different levels of competencies are expected given the roles the agencies play in the Hurricane forecasting and communication process, it will be important to adjust training objectives and course offerings because one single offering may not be able to address the training needs.

2.4.2.5 A number of the members explained their activities related to domestic and regional training for other meteorological agencies as well as local authorities and the media. A request was made for RSMC Miami to share the agenda/curriculum outline for the Emergency Management Training Course with the members. RSMC Miami will also share the NHC Program description to highlight to members the structure of the program in RA-IV.

2.4.2.6 Recommendation: The TCM strongly endorsed the WMO/TCP to explore a sharing space/repository, for member contribution, in order to gather material related to the design of tropical cyclone-related training and education programs. This could include agendas, curriculum, course outlines, web-based forecaster tools, etc, that are being offered both internally and externally, and could include scientific/technical as well as disaster management/decision-making applications.

2.5 Support to operational forecasters

2.5.1 Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

2.5.1.1 The Guide is now available on-line. The TCP intend to make a limited number of printed versions of this Guide available for Members, though resource limitations have slowed the process.

2.5.2 WMO/TCP Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Website

2.5.2.1 It was recognized and appreciated that the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO)hosts the website. New material is continuously being added following international workshops and training courses. This site includes TCP technical publications, regional operational plans; best track archive; the Global Guide; and links to tropical cyclone research. The TCP invited members to add additional links for research efforts in order to improve the information available on the site.

2.5.2.2 Recommendation: The TCM requested that the WMO/TCP Tropical Cyclone Forecaster website be updated to improve utility. Members are asked to share new material/links through the TCP. Members are also asked to encourage usage of the site among their own forecaster community.

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2.6 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Competencies

2.6.1 Following 17th WMO Congress there was a commitment to follow up on ensuring the tropical cyclone competencies are aligned with the ongoing competencies efforts of the aviation and marine programmes globally. It was noted that the completion of a global set of TC competencies can be used to develop training priorities for the programme.

2.6.2 RSMC Miami provided an update on its approach to defining competencies (see notes in 2.4.2).

2.6.3 RSMC Tokyo and Honolulu started a project to develop TC forecast competencies following TCM-7. A draft TC forecaster competency was developed during the 47 th Typhoon Committee. They have reviewed the 3 level competency approach from BoM, however they feel a simpler version with minimum standards could be produced for the WMO Technical Regulations (similar to aviation and marine), while individual Regions can develop more specific and detailed competencies through the TC regional committees. 2.6.4 RSMC Perth expressed their progress and that they were considering a tier of competencies for those countries that are not specifically providing independent forecasts and warnings, but are communicating and interpreting the information of the RSMCs/TCWCs. Itis important to recognize the valuable work of those staff where they are providing this critical information. It is important to note that the TCM strongly supported that with these competencies, training should be targeted at the appropriate level for which the countries are expected to deliver their service.

2.6.5 Recommendation: The TCM endorsed that a minimum set of common tropical cyclone forecast competencies should be developed across the RSMCs/TCWCs, ensuring there is also recognition of a tier of competencies that address the communication or interpretation of the available products for individual countries’ purposes. Individual Regional bodies have the flexibility to develop, adopt and implement specific TC competencies to help frame development opportunities and training requirements within the Region.

2.6.6 Recommendation: The TCM recommended that in order to complete this task in a timely manner that the TCP establish a Task Team, naming a lead coordinator, with representation from all of the Regional bodies to develop draft global TC competencies (similar to the Aviation and Marine Programmes). The RSMCs/TCWCs will nominate experts from within the Regions to this Task Team.

2.7 Application of Common Alert Protocol (CAP) to TC warnings

2.7.1 Following EC-65, TCM was requested to work with the regional bodies to encourage the implementation of CAP in their alert bulletins. The Public Weather Services Programme is also working on the implementation of CAP in all alert bulletins to assist in standardized broadcast prioritization of alert bulletins for the media. It is desirable that all TC Regional Bodies work within the Regions to encourage the implementation of CAP. A few TCM members had indicated there had been progress on CAP; however its implementation was not universal yet. RSMC Tokyo posed the question as to whether the Tropical Cyclone Advisory should utilize the CAP protocol at all since it is not an urgent message. Comments in this regard were made stating that a bulletin like the Tropical Cyclone Advisory could be appropriate for CAP since it is a bulletin that the media would need to be certain of its broadcast priority. It was noted that there could be a connection between this activity and the SWIC project in the development of the WMO Alert Hub.

2.7.2 Response: TCM recommended all Regional Bodies to encourage CAP implementation for their TC alert bulletins in coordination with their own national alerting protocols for those members that wanted it. The TCM also requested that where success had been achieved with CAP implementation that it be shared with the other Regional Bodies who are at the formative stages.

2.8 Standardization of procedures and harmonized practices in TC forecasting operations and post-analysis

2.8.1 RSMC Miami stated there were discussions during the recent RA-IV Hurricane Committee regarding global standardization where consensus was reached that there was no problem with the regional classification system. There are two strong reasons not to go in this direction: a change in the usage of the 10 minutes vs 2 minutes vs 1 minute mean wind would lead to significant changes in outreach and education measures and could result in a change in how people interpret the wind

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speeds being forecast; and certainly at the regional level, there has been an effort to de-emphasize the category of storm forecast, and focus instead on the impacts (e.g. rain, wind, surge). So if the categorization would change, then it would bring forward confusion with the public on the categories and would also re-emphasize the importance of the categories when there was a desire to move to the risks and impacts. RSMC Honolulu supported this position.

2.8.2 RSMC Tokyo confirmed there have been discussions at the Typhoon Committee regarding this matter and while there are a few classification systems within their own basin, the national organizations and public know their own system, and a change in this direction could be problematic. HKO did present concern over the existing multiple categorization within the basin because it can cause confusion within the media. The members expressed an interest to find a common ground within the Region to reduce the number of differences and reduce the gaps. CMA also expressed an interest on working toward a common system, but understood the differences have been developed under national needs. RSMC Tokyo expressed that within Japan there is little confusion on their system because of the focus on the risk and impact and other meteorological parameters, in addition to the wind speed.

2.8.3 TCWC Perth indicated this really isn’t a significant issue within the Region; however there are times when the media compares systems to the RSMC Miami system. If changes were to be made the group may want to look at more than just wind speed in a new classification system. Within the Region though there was no need for change and nationally the approach was to put less emphasis on the category and more emphasis on the risk and impact.

2.8.4 RSMC La Reunion commented that looking from the outside, due to various terminologies and practices, comparison between the different basins is quite a challenge. It is as well obviously a real challenge to touch to well established long-standing regional practices. However, TC community should consider addressing minimal standardization and harmonization. For instance, within the SWIO, they have modified their conversions factors in 1999 to get uniformity of practices in terms of winds for the whole southern hemisphere. They used also to rename systems moving from another Region into their own. Finally after much debate and since the previous TCM session, they now retain the original name of a TC.

2.8.5 RSMC New Delhi used to have very large ranges within their categorization and over the last number of years they have partitioned the categories further to help in the communication of the differences with more intense systems. Impact and expected damages are indeed a focus of their communication.

2.8.6 RSMC Nadi does not see this as an issue within their Region because TCs don’t typically transition from other Regions into their own.

2.8.7 RSMC Wellington faces slightly different issues. Most of their TCs have moved into their Region from others. The real issue for their service is the extratropical transition where impacts don’t diminish, and even increase in some cases. So the categorization system for TCs is not the real issue.

2.8.8 It was recognized that globally, there is an issue with different categorization schemes. However in some Regions where there are not multiple classification systems on the same TC, there is no issue, while in other Regions it may be more of an obvious challenge. It was agreed that it could present an issue for the global TC research and climate comparisons. Within those Regions where the categorization is different and could lead to communication confusion, it would be left to the Region to resolve within their regional body. For those Regions where the system is working without a challenge, the implementation, communication and education/outreach may become a significant burden if a change were forced. If a change were to enhance what is being done and benefit the area, then it should be encouraged.

2.8.9 WMO Secretariat expressed the desire of the WMO to have the national weather services to work with the disaster risk management agencies in order to evolve the traditional warning programs to a more modern hazard and impact-based system. It was recognized by members that categorization of the storms is less important than the focus on risk and impact communication.

2.8.10 Recommendation: While the TCM acknowledged there were differences in the categorizations used across the Basins, these differences do not pose a threat to the effectiveness of the existing warning practices. In addressing the multiple threats posed by TCs, the TCM believes emphasis should be on communicating the hazard and impacts. Therefore the consensus was for no change to the existing category systems at this time. The TCM encouraged continuing coordination

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between RSMCs/TCWCs as TCs transition areas of responsibility. The TCM encouraged Regional bodies to emphasize education and warning system development toward an impact-based approach and to share best practices among the TC community.

2.9 Collaboration of TCP with other WMO Programmes

2.9.0 The TCP’s collaboration appears through joint training, workshop and projects. They work with various Programmes and Technical Commissions within the WMO, including for example: the Public Weather Services Programme; WWRP; CAeM; CHy; DRR; Space Programme; and others. The TCP collaborates with WMO organizations on the tropical cyclone related issues that cross-cut the Programmes and Technical Commissions. The TCM can provide recommendations to TCP on areas of current and future collaboration of interest to the group. The themes of risk and impact-based forecasts and warnings were seen as an emerging priority areas of work.

2.9.1 Storm Surge Watch Scheme

2.9.1.1 RSMC Tokyo is providing storm surge prediction to the regional Typhoon Committee members for their guidance. Next year this will include storm surge scenario output. It has also contributed training on storm surge forecasting for the Southeast Asian region. The HKO took the opportunity to express appreciation to JMA for providing storm surge information for six locations and is looking forward to the multi-scenario output next year.

2.9.2 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project

2.9.2.1 RSMC Tokyo presented on the collaborative project between themselves and RFSC Hanoi that includes understanding relative roles and responsibilities regarding producing severe weather guidance products in the Region along with ensuring consistency in that guidance output relative to the two centres.

2.9.3 Joint projects with WWRP

2.9.3.1 JMA presented a summary of the efforts of TIGGE (The International Grand Global Ensemble). The grand ensemble data is available with a 48-hour delay. There is a joint tropical cyclone ensemble project underway in the northwest Pacific. This project is producing a Multi-Centre Global Ensemble (MCGE) and its obvious value is having the output from various centres viewed in one output. It has shown that MCGE have more skill than the best single-model ensemble.

2.9.3.2 Recommendation: Given the results expressed in the MCGE study in the northwest Pacific basin, the TCM strongly encouraged making the TIGGE data available in real-time in order to benefit the operational forecast and warning programs globally and to address a number of the IWTC recommendations regarding model availability and improving uncertainty information.

2.10 Review of terminology/classification of tropical cyclones

2.10.1 This issue was first raised during TCM-7. The TCP revisited the documentation presented during that meeting as a refresher for the members. There exists different category, class and thresholds for TC events across the Regional Bodies. WMO desires some harmonization for this categorization and classification. Requests have been received by the WMO from international media and the reinsurance industry to standardize a global approach. This issue was also discussed in 2.8 and a recommendation provided.

3. RECOMMENDATIONS OF IWTC-VIII AND IWTCLP-III

3.1 IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III recommendations

3.1.1 Dr Robert Rogers presented a summary was provided on IWTC-VIII. This summary is available on the TCM meeting site. The theme was “Quantifying and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty”. A variety of topics related to the theme were delivered through keynote addresses and focus sessions. The presentations and papers associated with the workshop are available on the workshop site (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/IWTC8.html).

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3.1.2 Additionally, a summary was provided on the IWTCLP-III. This summary is available on the TCM meeting site. Detailed documents are available on the workshop website (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/IWTC8.html).

3.1.3 Twenty-seven recommendations were developed from both workshops along four themes: WMO; Operational Centres and Research Community; Forecast Agencies and Operational Forecasting Centres; and Recommendations addressed to Research Community. WMO Congress has tasked TCM as a coordinating body. TCM will develop a consensus on endorsement of certain of the recommendations, provide advice on priority recommendations, confirm that current activities are aligned, and establish a reporting frequency in the future. It is recognized by the TCM membership that an organized reporting relationship be established between IWTC/IWTCLP and the TCM and Regional TC bodies.

3.1.4 Recommendation: The TCM has addressed the six recommendations below that were addressed specifically in the WMO Cg-XVII documentation and encourages the RSMCs/TCWCs and participating members to consider these recommendations at the regional committee level in order to continue discussions and develop potential actions.

1. In recognition of the theme of the IWTC-VIII, “Quantifying and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty”:

PART A: The IWTC recommends that research and development of forecast guidance products be undertaken on all aspects of TCs, especially leading up to and after landfall. These products should include a specification of forecast uncertainty using e.g., probabilistic or ensemble approaches. Furthermore, RSMCs/TCWCs should be encouraged to provide TC forecast uncertainty as part of their TC warnings. To facilitate this, successfully-researched guidance products to specify TC forecast uncertainty should be widely shared with operational TC entities.

PART B: The IWTC also recommends that the TC Operational Community should engage with social scientists to develop tools and provide education and training for meaningful communication of risk to end users based on:

TCM Response to Part A and B: TCM members shared their current activities under these two themes. The TCM endorsed these two recommendations and encourages members to continue or initiate efforts in uncertainty communication and social science inclusion, and to engage partners and users early in these studies, in order to improve the relevance and utility of the TC products and services. 2. That RSMC/TCWCs archive all observations for each storm, including those

unavailable operationally, and make them available to the TC community on a voluntary basis, with as many details as possible summarizing the observation source.

TCM response: The TCM endorsed the principles stated in this recommendation and encourages the archiving of all reasonably obtainable observations for TC events and to document what is available for each event and where it is being stored. Furthermore it is recognized that there are resources constraints on gathering of this data and its long term storage and that this responsibility is best shared within the Regional Associations and not the sole responsibility of the RSMCs/TCWCs. The TCM also supported the voluntary sharing of these data, respecting individual agency’s data sharing policies and resource constraints, to the international community for the purpose of improving practices, enhancing research efforts and improving operational techniques because the TCM recognizes the benefits this would derive for operational centres.

3. That global ensemble forecasts of TC position and intensity in CXML format be disseminated in a manner that reflects forecasters’ requirements for operational forecasting, including WMO Forecasting demonstration projects (e.g., the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project).

TCM Response: The TCM encouraged members to work with their modelling centres to provide global ensemble model TC track and intensity forecasts in all stages of TC development in CXML format and a consistent naming/numbering convention for each TC event in as real-time as possible for operational purposes. It is recommended that TCP

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organize a discussion with the TIGGE working group, under CAS, to address this and encourage implementation.

4. That RSMCs/TCWCs are encouraged to reanalyze their historic Best tracks to help provide the most complete and accurate tropical cyclone databases possible to the TC research (and other) communities.

TCM Response: The TCM recognized that there are active best track reanalysis efforts underway. The TCM encourages relevant Members to enter this data into the IBTrACS process. There was consensus among the RSMC’s/TCWCs to endorse this recommendation and, respecting resources constraints, support any activities in this direction.

5. That all global modelling agencies make real-time TC tracker details available to RSMCs/TCWCs to improve forecast interpretations.

TCM Response: The TCM endorsed this recommendation and it is related to other issues discussed during this meeting.

6. That national TC warning centres support and encourage emergency response agencies to undertake or continue studies that identify those areas most at risk from storm tide impacts so that appropriate warning communication and mitigation strategies can be improved. This should include the acquisition of basic open coast storm tide hazard forecasting and probabilistic storm tide estimates to improve warning capabilities for their identified high-risk areas. Permanent tide gauges, meteorological or wave buoy infrastructure, and other observations could assist verification of these forecasts.

TCM Response: The TCM recognizes these activities are underway in various members’ jurisdictions. It is encouraged that meteorological services collaborate within the Regions and the respective decision-making agencies to develop inundation/hazard studies in order to identify the risks and vulnerable communities. Data validation is still a challenge in a number of basins. The TCM encourages the RSMCs/TCWCs to work within their Regions to provide assistance to members in the development of storm surge atlases that can be used to support the discussions with the emergency management authorities. It is recognized that there have been efforts to improve water level and wave measurements within certain Regions and the TCM strongly encourages the sharing of this data to allow for verification of models and forecasts.

3.2 Recommendations related to operational centres

3.2.1 Implications of the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellite on tropical cyclone forecast and warning strategy

3.2.1.1 It was expressed that the need for access to satellite information globally was discussed in many other topics during the meeting. The implementation of a number of new platforms in the near future will increase data availability in the future. The use of that data with new available channels and algorithms will need preparation. Therefore training workshops addressing the satellite theme will be important to support within the TC Community.

3.2.1.2 Recommendation: The TCM strongly recommended that TCP obtain funding to support participants for IWSATC, in Honolulu, Hawaii, February 2016.

3.2.1.3 The JMA provided an update in the Himawari-8 satellite and the advantages it will provide to the operational community. The presentation focused on data dissemination and distribution along with training and operational support. Himawari-8 started operation in July 2015. Among a number of improvements, the horizontal resolution has doubled and intervals of images have improved (every 2.5 minutes). One of the main applications for TC activity includes the ability to remotely sense and calculate the ocean surface vector winds. They have received some positive results of using AMV to diagnose intensity. Data coverage includes a number of Members within the west Pacific region.

3.2.1.4 A question was raised regarding the improvements to all of these satellite datasets and how they will impact the traditional analysis techniques like Dvorak. Jack Beven responded in saying that the improved resolution should have little impact on the analysis. The JMA did perform a formal

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assessment on the Dvorak analysis technique using the higher resolution images and found the results were consist, though the greatest difference observed is 0.5 on the intensity scale.

3.2.2 Forecasting issues on uncertainty, TC genesis, TC wind radii etc.

4. TROPICAL CYCLONE COORDINATION AND SERVICES

4.1 Report on implementation of the TCP

4.1.1 This presentation is available on the meeting website. In summary, this presentation detailed information on a number of topics discussed throughout the meeting including storm surge, training, global TC coordination, TC regional bodies, strengthening the TCM positon within the WMO structure, capacity building and others.

4.2 Recent and current activities of the TC RSMCs/TCWCs

4.2.1 Detailed reports of all the RSMCs/TCWCs and contributing services are available on the meeting resource page and as an appendix to this report. 4.3 Outcomes of 17th WMO Congress (Cg-17) and Executive Councils for TCP

4.3.1 Further expansion and consolidation of the regionally coordinated systems to cover all Members prone to tropical cyclones;

4.3.1.1 Jamie Rhome presented the USA Storm Surge modelling efforts with the goal to identify how this might benefit the international community. There is a strong interest/need in improving storm surge forecasting capability globally. The statistics in the USA show that almost 50% of the deaths related to TCs are due to Storm Surge and that over 80% of deaths are caused by some form of water.

4.3.1.2 During the 37th RA-IV Hurricane Committee meeting, members provided a written expression of their operational requirements for the future provision of storm surge forecasts and warnings. RSMC indicated their willingness to examine how it might be able to facilitate the provision of a centralized regional view of storm surge threats. The proposal was taken to the 5 th CIFDP Program Steering Committee to re-scope the CIFDP for the Dominican Republic to a Caribbean-wide project (CIFDP-C). Immediately it would be expanded to include Haiti.

4.3.1.3 The CIFDP-C demonstration project plan was divided into 5 phases between the initiation in 2013 and the implementation in 2018. Following the project scoping, a training exercise was offered within RA-IV with an invitation to all countries in the Region. An on-line module within COMET will be available in 2016, entitled, Introduction to Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, with other more technical modules following that. They are working on making the training material in English, Spanish and French.

4.3.1.4 The NWS is also working in parallel on an additional demonstration storm surge project on portions of the coastline in Mexico. This section of coastline (the Yucatan Peninsula) was selected because there was access to quality coastal data. The importance is to build the coastal data first (e.g. bathymetry, LIDAR land data or satellite-based topography) before starting to work on the actual modelling. Scenarios really can’t be developed without that foundational information.

4.3.1.5 Because of the lack of data around Hispaniola, it was decided to build a system around Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and then transfer it. The goal for CIFDP-C is to develop a coupled storm surge and wave modelling system. The project will develop products for planning, preparedness and forecasting. It is important to build a modelling system that is fast and not computationally expensive for real-time operational forecasting. They are building a 2nd generation wave model (parametric) for the coupling, which will allow for multiple runs and the development of probabilities and scenarios for analog use. This approach is easier to develop, implement and maintain. Information is available at: hurricanes.gov/surge 4.3.1.6 The gathering of airplane-based LIDAR is cost prohibitive for many vulnerable coastlines throughout the globe. New satellite technology is producing new global satellite topography datasets and these would be very helpful in globalizing these storm surge efforts, however accessibility is a challenge.

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4.3.1.7 Recommendation: TCM encouraged the WMO and its constituent bodies to work toward improving the accessibility of these datasets for use in storm surge modelling efforts for hazard planning, mitigation and warning systems.

4.3.1.8 The TCP presented on resolution Cg-XVII (3.1.65) which states the importance of regional coordination across the globe to ensure inclusion of non-traditional members of the RSMCs/TCWCs areas of responsibility. Congress noted there are areas on the globe in the periphery of the traditional AoR’s where Members are not specifically served for Tropical Cyclone events by an RSMC/TCWC (e.g. Arabian Sea countries, eastern Atlantic). Congress has asked the SG to establish sustainable and reliable links, and develop a mechanism, with the support of the Regional Associations, to include all Members.

4.3.1.9 Recommendation: The TCM recommends that the RSMCs/TCWCs confirm or strengthen linkages with those Members on the periphery of their traditional AoR that may not be clearly served at this time.

4.3.2 Enhancement on the capacities of Members to provide more accurate forecasting and warning services which are impact-based and in multi-hazard approach (which is also a decision of EC-66);

4.3.3 Strengthening TCM in global coordination on tropical cyclones;

4.3.3.1 The WMO secretariat noted the decisions from Cg-XVII (i.e. 3.1.97; 3.1.98; 3.1.99) should focus on formally defining the role of TCM for technical coordination globally, with potentially stronger linkages to a Technical Commission. It suggested that in addition to coordination of a quality management system for tropical forecasts and warning that the TCM could also coordinate: functions and responsibilities of regional centres; regional advisories; analytical and forecasting procedures; availability of data/products; forecast accuracy; capacity development; and terminology. The TCM could provide technical guidance from a global perspective to TCP. It was recognized that TCM, in its current status, has provided significant contribution global since its inception in 1992.

4.3.3.2 The TCM was asked by the WMO secretariat two questions: 1) whether the TCP should be part of the WWW; and 2) how should TCM become regularized (because at this moment it is - an ad hoc group and not a constituent body). It was suggested by the secretariat that the TCM should develop recommendations to define its reporting relationship within the WMO organization, clarify membership and draft a Terms of Reference for consideration. These recommendations would be presented to the next Executive Council and eventually Congress for approval.

4.3.3.3 For TCP, it has had a history of being under the WWW umbrella and being on its own. TCP has two coordination components: regional and global. The regional components have status through their Regional Associations. The secretariat told that the global coordination efforts do not have a clear path to EC, even though previous TCM’s have been permitted to report to EC through meeting status. It also shared its view that through EC and Cg that there are now challenges as to where TCM fits formally. 4.3.3.4 Members shared their views on the matter. It was felt that since TCM discusses many cross-cutting issues that are relevant to a variety of Technical Commissions, that TCM doesn’t really fit within one single entity, and that the Regional Association TC Committees are serving the Tropical Cyclone Programme well. Some participants questioned whether TCM needed to come to a position on where TCP or TCM may fit by the end of the meeting. In addition, this question may present an opportunity to clearly define the TCM role within WMO and enhance the influence of its recommendations.

4.3.3.5 There was much debate on the future membership of the TCM. Historically, the TCM has only included the RSMCc and TCWCs. The invitations expanded in 2015 to other WMO Members who have active Tropical Cyclone programmes. There were questions related to why certain countries were invited and others not. The WMO TCP answered that following the recent resolutions of Congress and global interest and impacts, invitations were expanded to WMO Members who have been making significant contributions to the TCP, developing and maintaining certain TC projects and activities.

4.3.3.6 It was noted that some participants want TCM to be inclusive of the TC community and moving forward with the global community interest in this matter, expansion may be necessary, recognizing that it is more efficient to limit the number of participants within TCM in order to ensure

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discussions are fruitful and recommendations developed. The ToRs will include the issues related to membership and whether or not there will be categories of core membership, expert participation and contributing participants. Any change in membership needs to be considered and discussed among the PRs for agreement before moving forward. The TCM recognized that the ToRs have no status since it is not a constituent body, however it will be a vehicle to respond to the Congress resolutions and a mechanism forward to achieve that.

4.3.3.7 Recommendation: The TCM recommended that the TCP facilitate a task team that includes the RSMCs/TCWCs to draft an appropriate Terms of Reference for the TCM to address both current and future roles (by consulting other relevant Members as appropriate) for potential submission to EC which will include the aspects presented in the Cg-XVII documentation (ref. 3.197, 3.1.98, 3.1.99). The TCM proposed that it needs to better understand how the current evaluation of the WMO structure and constituent bodies will provide opportunity to move forward.

4.3.4 WMO Global Initiative for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (WMO-GIFT).

4.3.4.1 This is a project to gather activity related to global coordination. This was not discussed in the Cg-XVII documentation, but it did appear in the programme budget document which was later cancelled. This is related to Cg-XVII decision 3.1.99. The WMO secretariat told that the TCP endeavours that global issues on coordination and harmonization of TC forecasting, which are being pursued by the RSMCs/TCWCs TCM, shall be enhanced through this new project. TCM confirmed that it was not intended that this be a new activity, but a consolidation of the existing global TC activities.

4.3.4.2 Following a discussion on the matter, that while this may present an opportunity, the TCM members felt we need to decide on what we want to accomplish before we look at redefining or enhancing activities under a project. The members supported that this was a potential opportunity, it was just that the timing might not be right until we concretely define the roles of TCM first. Some members felt strongly that is important that TCM clearly define its role quickly in order to ensure its survivability and to avoid others with the WMO organization making the decisions on its behalf. The TCM needed to be open to multiple options as this develops.

4.3.4.3 Recommendation: The TCM acknowledged the request Congress made to TCM to develop a proposal to enhance its roles and activities (Cg-XVII 3.1.99) and in response agreed among the membership that the first step in this enhancement was in defining the TCM roles through confirming Terms of Reference. At that point the TCM will look at areas for further improvement and strengthening of programme activities. As part of that activity, some of the actions and decisions made during this meeting will be folded in to this effort and expressed in the Terms of Reference.

5. OTHER MATTERS

5.1 No other issues were raised.

6. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING

6.1 The meeting was closed at 1330, 6 November 2015

________

Annex 1

PROVISIONAL LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

1. REPRESENTATIVES OF TC RSMCS AND TCWCS

COUNTRY PARTICIPANT

RSMC Honolulu, USA Mr Thomas E. EVANS

Email: raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov

RSMC Miami, USADr Richard KNABB

Email: richard.knabb@noaa.gov

Dr Raymond TANABE

Email: Raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov

Dr Lixion A. AVILA

Email: lixion.a.avila@noaa.gov

RSMC La Réunion Mr Philippe CAROFF

Email : philippe.caroff@meteo.fr

RSMC Nadi Mr Amit SINGH

Email: avising8h@yahoo.com

RSMC New Delhi Dr S. BALACHANDRAN

Email: balaimd@yahoo.co.in

RSMC Tokyo

Mr Tsukasa FUJITA

Email: fujita.tsukasa@met.kishou.go.jp

Mr Naohisa KOIDE

Annex 1Email: koide-n@met.kishou.go.jp

Mr Takuya HOSOMI

Email: hosomi@met.kishou.go.jp

TCWC Jakarta Mr Miming SAEPUDIN

Email: misae4u@yahoo.com

TCWC Perth Mr Mike BERGIN

Email: m.bergin@bom.gov.au

TCWC Port Moresby Mr Jimmy GOMOGA

Email: jgomoga@gmail.com

TCWC Wellington Mr Chris NOBLE

Email: Chris.Noble@metservice.com

3. OBSERVERS

CANADA Dr John PARKER

Email : john.k.parker@ec.gc.ca

CHINA METEOROLOGICAL

Mr QIAN CHUANHAI

Annex 1ADMINISTRATION (CMA) Email: chqian@cma.gov.cn

Mr YU JUN

Email: yj@cma.gov.cn

HONG KONG OBSERVATORY, CHINA

Dr Tsz-cheung LEE

Email: tclee"hko.gov.hk

KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION (KMA)

Dr Kiryong KANG

Email: krkang@kma.go.kr

4. WMO SECRETARIAT

Mr Xu TANG Director, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department (WDS), World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

E-mail: xtang@wmo.int

Mr Taoyong PENG Chief, Tropical Cyclones Programme Division (TCP)Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department (WDS) , World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

E-mail: tpeng@wmo.int