World: Major currencies are strengthening vs. the greenback in Q4Performance of top major currencies vs. the USD

Bloomberg

Down vs. 25 of 31

18

32

45

47

49

56

74

81

108

116

128

143

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Jan 80 - Jul 81

Aug 57 - Apr 60

Feb 45 - Nov 48

Dec 69 - Nov 73

Jul 53 - Aug 57

Nov 48 - Jul 53

Nov 73 - Jan 80

Mar 01 - Dec 07

Jul 81 - Jul 90

Apr 60 - Dec 69

Jul 90 - Mar 01

Dec 07 - ….

NBF Economics and Strategy (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html)

U.S.: The longest business cycle on recordDuration of economic cycles since 1945 (peak to peak)

Months

Average of 11 cycles since 1945:

68.5 months

14,800

15,200

15,600

16,000

16,400

16,800

17,200

17,600

18,000

18,400

18,800

19,200

19,600

20,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

U.S.: Perspective on the current business cycleActual vs. potential* real GDP

$ billions

* As calculated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) - NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Fed of St-Louis)

Potential GDP

Actual GDP

Peak

RecessionTrough

Recovery

Expansion

Mature

phase

A

BC

D

E

F

Recoveries Expansions Mature Phases Current Phase

Total 22.4% 10.8% 14.0% 12.4%

Oil & Gas 57.8% 6.9% 23.5% -4.4%

Basic Materials 23.3% 10.4% 13.3% 4.3%

Gold mining 20.0% 12.3% 9.6% 5.3%

Metals and mines 12.2% 10.4% 20.8% -3.5%

Industrials 34.6% 9.9% 17.6% 11.8%

Consumer discretionary 29.2% 13.9% 8.7% 16.1%

Consumer Staples 8.2% 15.5% 17.7% 5.5%

Health Care 6.9% 11.8% 16.4% 11.9%

Financials 22.3% 16.8% 11.7% 11.3%

Banks 29.3% 17.4% 6.2% 9.2%

Insurance 11.1% 18.3% 16.2% 8.2%

Real Estate 11.6% 18.0% 13.9% 11.8%

IT 12.9% 7.5% 12.6% 21.7%

Telecoms 11.9% 18.8% 13.9% 7.9%

Utilities 24.0% 15.4% 13.3% 11.6%*Recess ions dates are those of the NBER

NBF Economics and Strategy

Average S&P 500 performance by sectors in different phases of the cycle

since 1973

(Total return indices, annualized growth rates)

Mature phases are second most favourable for equities

S&P/TSX composite index: quarterly performance (total return)

Bks 12.5 gld 8.1 HC 13.4 Engy 6.6 HC 46.7 IT 10.2 Engy 15.8 HC 31.4 gld 19.3 HC 49.1 IT 14.3 Util 10.1 IT 9.9

Fin 11.5 Util 7.3 Ind 6.1 Bks 4.7 Bks 6.7 RE 0.5 HC 14.3 Ind 5.6 C. Stpl. 5.7 IT 26.0 gld 13.5 gld 9.6 Mat 5.1

Engy 7.0 C. Disc. 7.0 C. Disc. 4.8 C. Disc. 4.7 C. Stpl. 6.2 Bks -2.2 IT 10.9 Bks 4.8 Com. 2.0 RE 17.5 Util 5.4 RE 8.5 Ind 4.9

Ind 5.3 IT 7.0 Util 2.6 Fin 4.5 RE 6.0 Ind -2.6 Ind 9.4 RE 3.9 Mat 0.9 Util 16.1 Mat 5.4 C. Stpl. 5.8 gld 4.7

TSX 4.5 Mat 6.1 Com. 2.5 TSX 3.7 Fin 5.7 C. Disc. -2.9 Mat 7.9 Fin 3.8 Util -1.3 Engy 15.6 Ind 5.1 Fin 5.2 Engy 3.6

C. Disc. 1.5 Ind 5.3 IT 2.2 Mat 3.3 Mat 5.0 Fin -3.5 gld 7.0 IT 3.0 RE -6.7 Ind 15.3 C. Disc. 4.6 Bks 4.3 TSX 2.6

RE 0.1 Com. 5.0 C. Stpl. 1.7 IT 3.2 C. Disc. 4.5 Mat -4.3 TSX 6.8 Com. 2.4 TSX -10.1 TSX 13.3 Fin 3.5 IT 3.4 Util 2.3

Util -0.4 RE 4.7 RE 1.2 Ind 2.7 TSX 4.5 TSX -4.5 C. Disc. 6.6 TSX -0.6 IT -10.3 C. Stpl. 10.6 Bks 3.4 C. Disc. 2.7 Com. 2.0

IT -0.5 Bks 4.6 Fin -0.9 Com. 2.3 Ind 4.3 Util -5.9 RE 4.7 C. Stpl. -0.9 Fin -11.3 Fin 10.4 TSX 2.6 TSX 2.5 Fin 1.5

C. Stpl. -1.5 Fin 3.5 TSX -1.6 RE -1.0 Com. 4.3 C. Stpl. -5.9 C. Stpl. 3.5 Util -1.6 Bks -11.6 Com. 10.0 C. Stpl. 1.7 Com. 2.0 Bks -0.4

Com. -2.8 C. Stpl. 2.6 Bks -1.9 gld -1.7 IT 3.4 Com. -6.7 Fin 2.1 Engy -5.7 C. Disc. -11.9 C. Disc. 9.8 Com. -0.2 Engy 1.2 HC -0.8

Mat -6.2 TSX 2.4 gld -6.3 Util -1.9 Util 2.6 gld -7.2 Com. 1.9 C. Disc. -8.0 Ind -13.4 Mat 8.5 RE -1.4 Mat 0.4 C. Disc. -0.8

gld -16.4 Engy -5.5 Mat -6.4 C. Stpl. -2.7 Engy 0.7 Engy -9.4 Bks 1.8 Mat -12.9 Engy -17.3 Bks 8.0 Engy -2.8 Ind -1.5 C. Stpl. -1.7

HC -28.6 HC -10.1 Engy -8.3 HC -10.3 gld -1.6 HC -13.5 Util -0.4 gld -20.9 HC -35.3 gld 5.7 HC -9.3 HC -30.0 RE -3.7

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv)

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