World inequality and resources: thinking outside the goldfish bowl

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World inequality and resources:thinking outside the goldfish bowl

Danny Dorling, University of Sheffield, UK

Slideshow adapted from talks given at the Hay Festival and in Zurich in 2009, thanks to Anna Barford and John Pritchard for help with this – and all involved in worldmapper

http://www.worldmapper.org/


Avoiding distorted views

In July 2004 Italian council official Giampietro Mosca of the city of Monza secured his place in history. He confirmed that local laws had been changed to outlaw keeping goldfish in curved bowls. "A fish kept in a bowl has a distorted view of reality...and suffers because of this," Mr Mosca is reported to have said. Giampietro continued: “This story about the goldfish, which has gone around Italy, seems a little irrelevant and people have mocked it a bit, but it has a very specific educational sense, especially for the little ones."

Gilbert, D. (2006). Stumbling on Happiness. London, Harper Collins. (page 171).



World income distribution ($PPP)

GDP/capita Cen

tral A

frica

Sou

thea

ster

n A

frica

Nor

ther

n A

frica

Sou

ther

n A

sia

Asi

a P

acifi

c

Mid

dle

Eas

t

Eas

tern

Asi

a

Sou

th A

mer

ica

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Japa

n

Tota

l

32 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

128 4 6 10 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 22256 13 23 27 1 4 2 4 6 0 0 0 0 80512 23 59 54 23 19 9 27 18 1 2 0 0 2351024 27 80 81 174 62 29 113 43 3 6 0 0 6182048 19 52 98 496 139 62 275 74 17 14 0 0 12464096 8 25 92 503 168 86 386 94 58 26 3 0 14498192 3 15 53 172 102 90 317 88 87 47 25 0 1001

16384 1 10 17 19 43 62 164 59 62 87 99 19 64132768 0 6 3 1 19 27 55 29 21 115 161 77 51465536 0 2 0 0 8 7 11 11 2 86 86 31 244131072 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 3 0 34 15 1 58262144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 1 0 9524288 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

1048576 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 99 280 439 1389 566 374 1352 428 251 425 391 128 6123



0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1,000.0

10,000.0

32 64 128

256

512

1024

2048

4096

8192

1638

432

768

6553

613

1072

2621

4452

4288

1048

576

per capita annual income (PPP$ 2000)

peop

le (m

llions

)

Only ‘normal’ in log/log space

J apanWestern EuropeEastern EuropeSouth AmericaEastern AsiaMiddle EastAsia PacificSouthern AsiaNorthern AfricaSoutheastern AfricaCentral Africa



Imagine what the world might look like after a global environmental disaster.

It is a strange looking world.

A world in which over a billion are forced to live in slums ….



Urban Slums



Slum Growth



… three billion with only the basic sanitation of a (often communal) pit latrine available …although for the few with such a system in affluent countries this is usually no problem.. .



Improved Sanitation



… another two and a half billion without even that ….



Poor Sanitation



… two billion living in homes as overcrowded as last seen in Victorian times .



Overcrowded Homes



… well over a billion with access only to dirty water – and that they have to walk for … although millions have recently been connected to piped water in China ….



Poor Water



Water Connected



Water Connecting



… A world where half the population are crowded into poorly designed cities into which a billion are moving within a generation….



City Growth



Following the environmental disaster over a billion try to live at below subsistence levels ….



The Wretched Dollar (up to $1 a day)



… many more than a billion and a half more in absolute poverty ….



Absolute Poverty (up to $2 a day)



The numbers undernourished are growing ….



Undernourishment in 1990



Undernourishment in 2000



… and within a generation we should expect those to top a billion, over half being underweight children ….



Underweight Children



Millions of children have to work ….



Child Labour



… and two out of five children do not ever attend a secondary school ….



Secondary Education



The same proportion of babies is born without a midwife or some other person with her knowledge present ….



Births Attended



Following the disaster it is hardly surprising that over 3 million pregnancies a year result in death at birth – almost all where the disaster hit hardest ….



Stillbirths



A further 3 million newborn babies struggle then die in much the same places during their first week of life ….



Early Neonatal Mortality



… each year there are over ten million children dying a year before their fifth birthday – almost all where the disaster was most acute ….



Infant Mortality



Mortality 1-4 Year Olds



Almost two hundred and fifty million children of these ages suffer from diarrhoea, mostly in these worse-off places and that is where the disease is more often fatal ….



Childhood Diarrhoea



Other diseases are most concentrated in impact where the environmental damage is greatest. Often these are diseases that were common in the overcrowded and unsanitary conditions of Victorian times. Cholera is still widespread, over one hundred and fifty thousand cases a year …...



Cholera Cases



… and a few thousands of deaths each year despite its susceptibility to treatment and prevention ….



Cholera Deaths



More than eight million cases of tuberculosis are recorded in the disaster area annually; and 72 million cases of malaria ….



Malaria Cases



… resulting in over one hundred thousand deaths a year ….



Malaria Deaths



This is the twenty-first century environmental disaster. It is not a disaster resulting from rising carbon emissions … .



Carbon Emissions 1980



Carbon Emissions 2000



Carbon Emissions Increases



Carbon Emissions Decreases



Carbon Damage



It is not a disaster of the greenhouse gases ….



Greenhouse Gases



… or methane and nitrous oxide emissions ….



Methane and Nitrous Oxide



… and nitrogen oxides ….



Nitrogen Oxides



Particulate Damage



… it is not the result of our pumping sulphur into the air ….



Sulphur Dioxide



… chorofluorococarbons ….



Chlorofluorocarbons



… even of our dumping nuclear waste ….



Nuclear Waste



… and other hazardous waste … .



Hazardous Waste



… sludge ….



Sewage Sludge



… and general rubbish ….



Waste Collected



This is not an environmental disaster that is the result of our depletion of the planet’s energy resources …..



Energy Depletion



… mineral reserves ….



Mineral Depletion



… forests ….



Forest Depletion



Forests 1990



Forest 2000



Forest Growth



Forest Loss



Activity involving all these things contributed to the disaster, but hardly any of the tens and hundreds of millions of premature deaths have been as a result of pollution -other than that from our own sewage. ..The current disaster is not the result of our rapid depletion of gas ….



Gas Depletion



… oil …



Oil Depletion



… water …



Rainfall Volume



Water Resources



Groundwater Recharge



Water Use



Water Depletion



Domestic Water Use



Industrial Water Use



Agricultural Water Use



… and other resources …



Ecological Footprint



… beyond the capacity of the land where we live ….



Biocapacity



… our environmental behaviour to date was not the cause of the crisis. We did not run out of oil power and then have to live in slums …..



Oil Power



… gas …



Gas Power



… coal …



Coal Power



… nuclear energy …



Nuclear Power



… although in places the firewood is almost exhausted … and only as much is burnt for necessity as is burn in ‘real fires’ elsewhere for show..



Traditional Fuel



This environmental disaster did not result from the World Bank failing to include the costs of this damage in their accounts …..



Adjusted Savings



Negative Savings



… nor from the International Monetary Fund’s unfair influence from a bias in its internal power-structure …..



International Monetary Fund



In the rich sixth of the world our concerns are currently transfixed by our own self interests such at we see the car as a necessity for the tenth of people who have access ….

Locally in Britain in Victorian times the richest of gazes were similarly averted. .



Passenger Cars



… and ignore the million deaths a year that result … and that are rising rapidly …..



Road Deaths



We are obsessed over access to crude oil (320bn US$ exports per year’s worth) …..



Crude Petroleum Exports



… or that one day soon we will not be able to fly as often and far as we do now (25bn km a year for those that can and do) …..



Aircraft Flights



… and we are now as concerned by climate change as we once were by AIDS, and before that nuclear winter, and before that world war, and before that revolution – before we thought we were safe from each threat. But none of these threats has really gone away..

… The wars never ended ….



War Deaths 1945-2000



War Deaths 2002



… the nuclear weapons remain ….



Nuclear Weapons



… over thirty million people have HIV ….



HIV Prevalence



… and three million a year are dying of AIDS – but largely out of sight and beyond the limits of our imagination now that that disease is no longer pandemic “at home”. .Now our imaginations are turned towards scares over a return of an influenza outbreak that could kill us (so we care) …..



Influenza Outbreaks



… worrying about our diets …



Diabetes Prevalence



… giving up smoking …



Women Smoking



Men Smoking



… and recycling …



Waste Recycled



Meanwhile – elsewhere acute disasters are still the experience of millions a year ….



Affected by Disasters



… thousands are killed …



Killed by Disasters



… earthquakes …



Killed in Earthquakes



… volcanoes …



Killed by Volcanoes



… droughts …



Killed by Drought



… floods …



Killed by Floods



… storms …



Killed by Storms



… landslides …



Killed by Avalanches and Landslides



… heat waves …



Killed by Extreme Temperature



… and pestilence …



Affected by Insect Infestation



But for every death attributed to all such disasters – at least one hundred more (mostly infants) die relatively quickly and quietly from largely undocumented poverty, as they did in Manchester when Queen Victoria died (in young old age)..

We gave to charity then and we still do – doling out food aid …..



International Food Aid



… in almost direct proportion to our consumption of burgers ….



International Fast Food



… but we no longer expect children in cities in the rich world to rely on charity (outside of the United States) …..



Slowly our horizons are widening: we can talk around the world …..



Telephone Lines 1990



Telephone Lines 2002



Cellular Subscribers 1990



Cellular Subscribers 2002



… the internet explodes …



Internet Users 1990



Internet Users 2002



Most children are now literate …



Youth Literacy



… one hundred million are at university …



Tertiary Education



… and millions of people, disproportionately the young, are willing and now able to protest in numbers never seen before …..



International demonstrations



… and to vote …



Voter turnout



… strike …



Strikes and Lockouts



… organise …



Trade Unions



… and to understand how the world works …



Terms Of Trade Decline 1980-2002



… and does not work …



Total Debt Service 2002



The global environmental disaster is here, now ….



Human Poverty



Billions are living in environmental conditions of our making that are the main detrimental impact on human health. Worldwide inequalities in health are rising and living standards are polarising. ..There are also places where general living standards are falling ….



Development Decrease



… and where absolute incomes are falling …



Wealth Decline



Most people will never fly; more do not have access to a car with every year that passes; and material production has come to be concentrated on one side of the planet … ..



Container Ports



making us reliant on a single source of fuel for bulk transport, itself bulk transported …..



Oil Tankers



… to the other side of the planet …



Toys Imports



Although the product of this labour may allow near universal electricity access in China (following on from the piped water)…..



Electricity Access



… it cannot result in the spreading of standards of living acquired largely as a result not of labour but of earnings from mercantilism …..



Mercantile and Business Exports



… finance …



Finance And Insurance Exports



… and royalties …



Royalties And License Fees Exports



… that are less than zero-sum in “world aggregate well-being effect” (a tiny few benefit at the expensive of the majority). ..Simultaneously, great environmental damage may be part of the price of social progress: 71% of the plant species of China are threatened with extinction …..



Plants At Risk



… while the highest numbers of extinctions overall are found in the United States …..



Species Extinct



Live in fear of others for what they might take away from you and you further limit the horizons of your imagination. See others as less deserving than you, as less civilized, less intelligent, less human, less important and you will find it very hard at all to image a world in which 9 billion people will be alive when our children’s grandchildren ask about the 21st century’s environmental disaster …...

Conclusion



Population 2300



Final 57 Words

“I have three things I’d like to say today. First, while you were sleeping last night, 30,000 kids died of starvation or diseases related to malnutrition. Second, most of you don’t give a shit. What’s worse is that you’re more upset with the fact that I said shit than the fact that 30,000 kids died last night.”

Tony Campolo, quoted by Ken Leech ( + see also Cohen, G.A., If You're an Egalitarian How Come You're So Rich. 4th ed. 2002, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.


World inequality and resources: thinking outside the goldfish bowl

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