World Energy Outlook 2013

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© OECD/IEA 2013 World Energy Outlook 2013 London, 12 November

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Large differences in regional energy prices are set to affect industrial competitiveness, influencing investment decisions and company strategies. The extraordinary rise of light tight oil in the United States will play a major role in meeting global demand growth over the next decade, but the Middle East – the only large source of low-cost oil – will remain at the centre of the longer-term oil outlook. India is set to overtake China in the 2020s as the principal source of growth in global energy demand. These are just some of the key findings from the IEA in the latest edition of its World Energy Outlook.

Transcript of World Energy Outlook 2013

Page 1: World Energy Outlook 2013

© OECD/IEA 2013

World Energy Outlook 2013

London, 12 November

Page 2: World Energy Outlook 2013

© OECD/IEA 2013

The world energy scene today

Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten

Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…

… and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand

New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources

But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce

Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise

Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012

1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities

Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers

Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history

Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity

Page 3: World Energy Outlook 2013

© OECD/IEA 2013

The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia

Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)

China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth

4%

65%

10%

8%

8% 5%

OECD

Non-OECD Asia

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

Eurasia

Share of global growth 2012-2035

480

Brazil 1 540

India

1 000 Southeast

Asia

4 060

China

1 030

Africa

2 240 United States 440

Japan

1 710

Europe 1 370

Eurasia

1 050 Middle East

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A mix that is slow to change

Growth in total primary energy demand

Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

Nuclear

Oil

Renewables

Coal

Gas

Mtoe

1987-2011

2011-2035

the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035

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‘Carbon budget’ for 2 °C 1750-2011

Non-OECD

OECD

Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France

Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions

Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD; the 2 °C carbon budget is being spent much too quickly

200

400

600

800 Gt

1900 -1929

1930 -1959

1960 -1989

1990 -2012

2013 -2035

2012-2035

‘Carbon budget’ for 2 °C

Remaining budget

OECD

Non-OECD

Total emissions 1900-2035

51%

49%

the 2 °C ‘carbon budget’ is being spent much too quickly

Page 6: World Energy Outlook 2013

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China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops; demand is concentrated in transport, where diesel use surges by 5.5 mb/d, & petrochemicals

China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops;

Oil demand by region sector

Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2012 2035

mb/d

China

India

Middle East

Other

Transport Petrochemicals Other sectors

OECD

Diesel

Gasoline

Other

80

85

90

95

100

105

2012 2035

mb/d

Transport Petrochemicals Other sectors

Diesel

Gasoline

Other

, & petrochemicals

Page 7: World Energy Outlook 2013

© OECD/IEA 2013

More oil bypassing the refining system and new capacity in growing non-OECD markets piles pressure on existing refiners, especially in Europe

Oil demand Oil processed by refineries

New refinery capacity China

India

Middle East

Other

Turbulent times for the refining sector

Refinery capacity and operation

More oil bypassing the refining system

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2012 2035

mb/d Oil bypassing refineries

Existing spare & excess

capacity

Spare & excess

capacity

with 10 mb/d at risk of closure by 2035

70

65

Page 8: World Energy Outlook 2013

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Two chapters to the oil production story

Contributions to global oil production growth

The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,

Middle East

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 mb/d

2013-2025

Brazil

Rest of the world

Oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal/gas-to-liquids, & other

Light tight oil

Conventional:

Unconventional:

2013-2025

2025-2035

but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook

Page 9: World Energy Outlook 2013

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Brazil cuts a distinctive profile

Brazil oil production

Complex deepwater projects see Brazil joining the top ranks of global oil producers,

while the domestic power mix remains one of the least carbon-intensive in the world

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2025 2035

Other

Deepwater

mb/d Oil production:

Other renewables

Bioenergy

Hydropower

Nuclear

Fossil fuels

Electricity generation:

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Brazil World

Electricity mix by fuel, 2035

Page 10: World Energy Outlook 2013

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GW

Capacity to change?

Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2013-2035

China & India together build almost 40% of the world’s new capacity; 60% of capacity additions in the OECD replace retired plants

400 600 800 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 000 200

United States

European Union

Japan

China

India

Middle East

Retirements

Additions Net additions

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300

600

900

1 200

1 500

1 800

2 100 TWh

India

Latin America

Africa

ASEAN

Hydro

Other renewables

Wind

Solar PV

China

Hydro

Other renewables

Wind

Solar PV

Renewables power up around the world

Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035

European Union

United States

Japan

Europe, Japan and United States

China India, Latin America, ASEAN and Africa

Hydro

Other renewables

Wind

Solar PV

The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs

Page 12: World Energy Outlook 2013

© OECD/IEA 2013

2003

Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist electricity price differentials also persist

2013 2035

Reduction from 2013

Who has the energy to compete?

Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States

United States

Japan European Union

China

Electricity Natural gas

2003

Japan European Union

China

Page 13: World Energy Outlook 2013

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An energy boost to the economy?

Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods

The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline

Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2%

European Union

United States China India Middle East

Japan

-3%

-10%

+3%

+2% +2% +1%

while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline

Page 14: World Energy Outlook 2013

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LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets

Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)

New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price

Average import price

Liquefaction, shipping & regasification

United States price 3

6

9

12

15

18

To Asia

$/MBtu

3

6

9

12

To Europe

$/MBtu

but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price

Page 15: World Energy Outlook 2013

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Orientation for a fast-changing energy world

China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade

Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook

Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line

The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent