World Energy Outlook 2010

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© OECD/IEA 2010 World Energy Outlook World Energy Outlook 2010 2010 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 10 December 2010

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Presentazione di Fatih Birol - IEA Chief Economist

Transcript of World Energy Outlook 2010

Page 1: World Energy Outlook 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

World Energy Outlook World Energy Outlook 20102010

Dr. Fatih BirolIEA Chief Economist10 December 2010

Page 2: World Energy Outlook 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

The context:The context:a time of unprecedented a time of unprecedented uncertaintyuncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears to

be over – but is the recovery sustainable?

Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price – what does this mean for future price movements?

Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution – will it herald a golden era for gas?

Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances – but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented?

China & other emerging economies will shape the global energy future – where will their policy decisions lead us?

Page 3: World Energy Outlook 2010

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Recent policy commitments,Recent policy commitments,if implemented, would make a if implemented, would make a differencedifference

Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries – led by China,where demand surges by 75% – accounting for almost all of the increase

World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario

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Emerging economies Emerging economies dominatedominatethe growth in demand for all the growth in demand for all fuels fuels

Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries,while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD

Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035

- 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

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OECD

China

Rest of world

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And also the electricity And also the electricity demanddemand

World electricity demand by country in the New Policies Scenario

Global electricity generation grows by 40%, with non-OECD countries accounting for 80% of the increase.

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Fossil-fuels still lead the wayFossil-fuels still lead the way

Power from renewables has been growing fast, but over the past decade, the increase was smaller than in fossil-fuel based generation

World incremental electricity generation by fuel and region, 2000-2008

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A profound change in the way A profound change in the way we generate electricity is at we generate electricity is at handhand

A gradual decarbonisation in global energy sector increase – thanks to renewables and nuclear.

World electricity generation by type in the New Policies Scenario

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Other …

Biomass

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Coal remains the backbone of Coal remains the backbone of global electricity generationglobal electricity generation

A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan

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Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario

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A golden age for gas?A golden age for gas?

Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs

> demand rises by 44% to 2035, led by China & Middle East

Unconventional gas accounts for 35% of the increase in global supply to 2035, with new non-US producers emerging

Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly

The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil-price indexation, notably in Europe

Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing out renewables, nuclear & coal in power generation

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Low-carbon technologies Low-carbon technologies increasingly penetrate the increasingly penetrate the electricity mix in the New Policies electricity mix in the New Policies ScenarioScenario

Share of nuclear and renewable energy in total electricity generation by region in

the New Policies Scenario

Renewable sources (including hydro) and nuclear power are projected toaccount for 45% of total global generation by 2035, up from 32% today

19%32%

17%27%

17%

41%14%

14%

2%

9% 28%

24%

0%

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40%

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70%

2008 2035 2008 2035 2008 2035

World China EU

Nuclear

Renewables

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Renewables need Renewables need government support to government support to deliverdeliver

Global government support for renewables reached $37 billion in 2009 and grows to $140 billion in 2035; support costs per unit of electricity fall over time as technologies mature

Global government support for renewables-based electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario

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Global nuclear capacity increases 65% from 2008 to 2035, with non-OECD countries accounting for 60% of additions

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Most growth in nuclear Most growth in nuclear capacity comes from non-capacity comes from non-OECDOECDNuclear capacity under construction and additions by region in the

New Policies Scenario

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The 450 Scenario:The 450 Scenario: a a roadmap from 3.5 roadmap from 3.5C to 2C to 2C C The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway

consistent with limiting the increase in temperature to 2C

Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accord pledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter

The failure of the Copenhagen Accord pledges:

> As many lack transparency, there is 3.9 Gt of uncertainty over the level of abatement pledged to 2020

> As many lack ambition, the cost of achieving the 2 C goal has increased by $1 trillion in 2010-2030 compared with WEO-2009

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Nuclear share in electricity Nuclear share in electricity mix increases in the 450 mix increases in the 450 ScenarioScenario

In the 450 Scenario, nuclear electrical capacity more than double – from about 400 GW in 2008 to 850 GW in 2035. Nuclear energy becomes the 1st primary energy source for electricity production.

Nuclear energy as a share of total electricity generation by scenario

* Includes Japan and Korea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

OECD Asia*

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China

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World 2008

2035 New Policies Scenario

2035 450 Scenario

Page 15: World Energy Outlook 2010

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Concluding remarksConcluding remarks

Recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure & sustainable energy future Lack of ambition in Copenhagen has increased the cost of

achieving the 2C goal & made it less likely to happen

The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case

Stronger penetration of natural gas can have profound implications for energy markets, environment and electricity production

Nuclear is set to play a key role for addressing energy security and climate challenges