World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY...

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency International Energy Symposium, IEEJ International Energy Symposium, IEEJ Tokyo Tokyo 16 November 2004 16 November 2004

Transcript of World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY...

Page 1: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

World Energy Outlook 2004World Energy Outlook 2004Claude Mandil

Executive DirectorInternational Energy Agency

International Energy Symposium, IEEJInternational Energy Symposium, IEEJTokyoTokyo

16 November 200416 November 2004

Page 2: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario

Page 3: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

World Primary Energy Demand

Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

eOil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear powerHydro power

Other renewables

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

eOil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear powerHydro power

Other renewables

Page 4: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand

Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia

38%

52%

10%

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

43%

9%

48%

2002 2030

10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe

38%

52%

10%

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

43%

9%

48%

2002 2030

10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe

Page 5: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region

Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD, up from less than 70% in 1971-2002

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1971-2002 2002-2030

Mto

e

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

31%

10%

59%

3%12%

85%share of total increase (%)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1971-2002 2002-2030

Mto

e

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

31%

10%

59%

3%12%

85%share of total increase (%)

Page 6: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Inter-Regional Trade in World Fossil-Fuel Supply

Energy trade between regions more than doubles by 2030, most of it still in the form of oil

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Mto

e

2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030

Domestic consumption Traded between regions

Oil CoalGas

14%

15%46%

63%

15%

26%

Trade as % of world demand

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Mto

e

2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030

Domestic consumption Traded between regions

Oil CoalGas

14%

15%46%

63%

15%

26%

Trade as % of world demand

Page 7: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The “Dire Straits”

The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints expand

Page 8: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Cumulative Energy Investment, 2003-2030

Power sector absorbs 62% of global energy investment in the period 2003-2030

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

Transition economies

China

Other Asia

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

billion $ (2000)

Coal Oil Gas Electricity

Page 9: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Growth in World Energy Demand & CO2Emissions

Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1971-2002 2002-2030

aver

age

annu

al g

row

th ra

te

Primary energy demand Emissions

Page 10: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

CO2 Emissions, 1971-2030

CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Page 11: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Asia-Pacific Energy Trends: Reference Scenario

Page 12: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

China’s share of Incremental World Production & Energy Demand, 1998-

2003

Booming industrial production in China is driving up energy demand & emissions - and energy prices

0 20 40 60 80

CO2 emissions

Electricity demand

Primary coal demand

Primary oil demand

Ethylene production*

Cement production

Crude steel production

GDP

per cent

2

0 20 40 60 80

CO2 emissions

Electricity demand

Primary coal demand

Primary oil demand

Ethylene production*

Cement production

Crude steel production

GDP

per cent

2

Page 13: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Share of Developing Asia in World Incremental Energy Demand

Developing Asia will account for 42% of the increase in demand through 2030, compared with 34% in the last three decades

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1971-2002 2002-2030

per c

ent

Primary energy demand Coal Oil Gas Electricity consumption

Page 14: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

China Oil Supply Balance

China’s oil imports will soar from around 2 mb/d now to almost 10 mb/d in 2030 – equal to over 74% of domestic demand

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb/

d

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Production Demand Imports as % of demand (right axis)

Page 15: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

OECD Asia Energy Trends: Reference Scenario

Page 16: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Primary Fuel Mix in Japan & Korea2002 2030

721 Mtoe 956 Mtoe

Increased use of gas & nuclear for power generation reduces the share of oil & coal in the primary fuel mix

Oil50%

Gas12%

Coal20%

Hydro1%Nuclear

15%

Renewables2%

Nuclear18%

Gas18%

Renewables4%

Hydro1%

Oil41%

Coal18%

Page 17: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Primary Gas Demand in Japan & Korea

Power generation underpins surging gas use in both Japan & Korea

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2002 2010 2020 2030

bcm

Japan Korea

Page 18: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Change in Electricity Generation by Fuel in Japan & Korea

Most new power-generation capacity is gas-fired or nuclear

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

1971-2002 2002-2030

TWh

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables

Page 19: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Increase in Energy-Related CO2Emissions by Sector in Japan & Korea

Most of the projected increase in emissions comes from power generation & transport in almost equal measure

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990-2002 2002-2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Power generation Industry Transport Other

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990-2002 2002-2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Power generation Industry Transport Other

Page 20: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Asia-Pacific Energy Trends: Alternative Policy Scenario

Page 21: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Japan & Korea CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

With new policies, Japan & Korea stabilise their emissions in the 2010s and drive them back down to 2002 levels by 2030

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2 100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2 100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

Page 22: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

China CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

With new policies, China could curb its CO2 emissions by 18% in 2030

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Page 23: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction Alternative vs Reference Scenario

2002-2030

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

49%

10%

21%

12%

8%

OECD

63%

1%

21%

15%

Transition economies

67%

7%

17%

5%4%

Developing countries

58%

World

End-use efficiency gains

7%

Fuel switching in end uses

20%

Increased renewables in power generation

10%

Increased nuclear in power generation

5%

Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

Page 24: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Summary & Conclusions

Page 25: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Summary & Conclusions (1)On current policies, world energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than nowEnergy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 & well beyondBut projected market trends raise serious concerns:

Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Rising CO2 emissions Huge energy-investment needsPersistent energy poverty

More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand & emissions significantlyBut a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deploymentUrgent & decisive government action is needed

Page 26: World Energy Outlook 2004 - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/951.pdf · INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

Summary & Conclusions (2)

Asia’s importance to world energy markets – and its share in CO2 emissions - will continue to grow

Most of the region’s incremental demand & emissions will come from developing Asia – notably China & IndiaEnergy demand will grow much more slowly in Japan & Korea

Net imports of oil & gas – and reliance on key chokepoints - will continue to grow New policies would reverse the rising emissions trend in OECD Asia, but not in developing Asia