World Economic History: Introduction
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Transcript of World Economic History: Introduction
World Economic History:
IntroductionOctober 1, 2007
Growth, historically
Introduction
The Malthusian trap
The Industrial Revolution
The Great Divergence
Life expectancy (years) - today & back then
0102030405060708090
DivergingGDP per capita
1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000
Western EuropeWestern OffshootsAsia AfricaWorldLatin America
The Malthusian economy
The Malthusian trap
Who was Malthus?
The model
The trap
The 3 assumptions Each society has a birth rate (B) that
increases with material living standards The death rate (D) declines as living
standards increase Material living standards decline as
population increases
PopulationIncome per capita
B-D
Surviving children per woman, pre-modern
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
Norway SouthernItaly
France England NorthernItaly
Iceland
Life expectancy and death rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Death rate (per thousand)
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
(yea
rs)
Long-run equilibrium in the Malthusian economy
Revealed technological advance
Virtues and Vices in the Malthusian model
Living standards
Wages and Prices – some examples
Real Wages, England 1250-1850
The plague
Stagnant living standards….
GDP per capita: England vs. the other countries
Evidence for other countries in pre-modern times
05
1015202530
Ancie
nt Ba
byloni
a
Classi
cal At
hens
Roman
Egypt
Engla
nd*
Amste
rdam*
Paris*
China
**Jap
an*
Day w
age i
n po
unds
of w
heat (*) 1780-1800 (**) 1750-1849
Calories intake per capita
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500 (*) 1878-96 (**) 1812 (***)1980s (****)1970s
Stature and living standards
62636465666768 (*) 1710-59 (**)1830s (***)1819-39 (****)1800-29 (*****) 1883-92
Hours worked
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
England1720-39
England1780-99
Tatuyo Ache Yanomano