Document of

The World Bank

Report No: ICR00004034

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT

(IDA-47940IDA-56370)

ON A

CREDIT AND ADDITIONAL FINANCING

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR8.3 MILLION

(US$ 12 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

FOR A

DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

March 20, 2017

Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Country Unit

Europe and Central Asia Region

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective: January 24, 2017)

Currency Unit = Leu

Leu 20.08 = US$ 1

US$ 1.00 = Euro 0.93

FISCAL YEAR 2017

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ACSA

AWS

BETF

CPESS

CPF

CPS

DCRMP

DES

DRM

ECC

ECMWF

EIB

EMP

EUMETNET

EUMETSAT

ERR

GDP

GFDRR

ICR

IDA

IIASA

ITC

JIT

MAFI

MoE

MoF

MoIA

MoldATSA

NPV

NWP

PAD

National Rural Development Agency

Automatic Weather Stations

Bank-Executed Trust Fund

Civil Protection and Emergency Situation Service

Country Partnership Framework

Country Partnership Strategy

Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project

Department of Exceptional Situations

Disaster Risk Management

Emergency Command Center

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

European Investment Bank

Environmental Management Plan

Network of European Meteorological Services

European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological

Satellites

Economic Rate of Return

Gross Domestic Product

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

Implementation Completion Report

International Development Association

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Information Technology and Communication

Just-in-Time

Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry

Ministry of Environment

Ministry of Finance

Ministry of Internal Affairs

Moldavian Air Traffic Services Authority

Net Present Value

Numerical Weather Prediction

Project Appraisal Document

PDO

PMT

PPF

SEEDRMAP

SEE-

MHEWS-A

SSP

SHS

UNDP

UNECE

UNISDR

WMO

Project Development Objective

Project Management Team

Project Preparation Facility

South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaption

Program

South East Europe Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory

System

Shared Socio-Economic Pathway

State Hydrometeorological Service

United Nations Development Program

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

World Meteorological Organization

Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez

Practice Manager: David Sislen

Project Team Leader: Anatol Gobjila

ICR Team Leader: Daniel Kull

MOLDOVA

DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

CONTENTS

Data Sheet

A. Basic Information

B. Key Dates

C. Ratings Summary

D. Sector and Theme Codes

E. Bank Staff

F. Results Framework Analysis

G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs

H. Restructuring

I. Disbursement Graph

1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design ............................................... 1

2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes .............................................. 9

3. Assessment of Outcomes .......................................................................................... 17

4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome ......................................................... 23

5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ..................................................... 24

6. Lessons Learned ....................................................................................................... 26

7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners .......... 28

Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing .......................................................................... 30

Annex 2. Outputs by Component ................................................................................. 31

Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ................................................................. 36

Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes ............ 38

Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ........................................................................... 39

Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ................................................... 40

Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ..................... 41

Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ....................... 42

Annex 9. Comparison of Indicators in PAD Section A and the Supplemental Letter………..44

Annex 10. List of Supporting Documents .................................................................... 45

i

A. Basic Information

Country: Moldova Project Name:

Disaster and Climate

Risk Management

Project

Project ID: P115634 L/C/TF Number(s): IDA-47940,IDA-56370

ICR Date: 03/20/2017 ICR Type: Core ICR

Lending Instrument: SIL Borrower: MOLDOVA

Original Total

Commitment: XDR 6.80M Disbursed Amount: XDR 8.29M

Revised Amount: XDR 8.29M

Environmental Category: B

Implementing Agencies:

Ministry of Environment, State Hydrometeorological Service, Department of Exceptional

Situations, Ministry of Agriculture

Cofinanciers and Other External Partners:

B. Key Dates

Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual

Date(s)

Concept Review: 11/25/2009 Effectiveness: 11/10/2010 11/10/2010

Appraisal: 06/01/2010 Restructuring(s):

Approval: 08/05/2010 Mid-term Review: 12/19/2012 02/15/2013

Closing: 09/30/2014 09/30/2016

C. Ratings Summary

C.1 Performance Rating by ICR

Outcomes: Moderately Satisfactory

Risk to Development Outcome: Substantial

Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory

Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory

C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR)

Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings

Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory

Quality of Supervision: Satisfactory Implementing

Agency/Agencies: Moderately Satisfactory

Overall Bank

Performance: Moderately Satisfactory

Overall Borrower

Performance: Moderately Satisfactory

ii

C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators

Implementation

Performance Indicators

QAG Assessments

(if any) Rating

Potential Problem

Project at any time

(Yes/No):

No Quality at Entry

(QEA): None

Problem Project at any

time (Yes/No): No

Quality of

Supervision (QSA): None

DO rating before

Closing/Inactive status:

Moderately

Satisfactory

D. Sector and Theme Codes

Original Actual

Major Sector/Sector

Public Administration

Public administration - Water, sanitation and flood

protection 100 100

Major Theme/Theme/Sub Theme

Environment and Natural Resource Management

Climate change 100 100

Adaptation 100 100

Finance

Finance for Development 25 25

Disaster Risk Finance 25 25

Urban and Rural Development

Disaster Risk Management 25 25

Disaster Preparedness 25 25

Disaster Response and Recovery 25 25

Disaster Risk Reduction 25 25

E. Bank Staff

Positions At ICR At Approval

Vice President: Cyril E Muller Philippe H. Le Houerou

Country Director: Satu Kristiina J. Kahkonen Martin Raiser

Practice Manager: David N. Sislen Wael Zakout

Project Team Leader: Anatol Gobjila

ICR Team Leader: Daniel Werner Kull

ICR Primary Author: Alexei Ionascu

iii

F. Results Framework Analysis

Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project development objective (PDO) is to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological

Service's ability to forecast severe weather and improve Moldova's capacity to prepare for

and respond to natural disasters. The PDO will be achieved through strengthened capacities

to: (i) monitor weather and issue early warnings of weather-related hazards by providing

timely and accurate hydrometeorological forecasts and services; (ii) manage and

coordinate responses to natural and man-made disasters; and (iii) help individuals,

particularly farmers, be aware of, and adapt to natural hazards and climate variability.

Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority)

In 2015, the project received additional financing of USD 2 million to finance cost overruns

and a resulting financing gap in the parent project. However, neither the PDO, nor the

original PDO indicators were revised. There were minor editorial and

numerical adjustments in the numerical values of selected indicators. See the table below.

(a) PDO Indicator(s)

Indicator Baseline Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : More specific forecasting of weather conditions

Value

quantitative or

Qualitative)

Scale of weather

forecasts at 5000 sq.

km.

Scale of weather

Forecasts

reduced to 300

sq km

Completed

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 09/15/2016

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 2 :

Expanded lead-time of weather warnings to users, particularly Department

of Exceptional Situations (DES)

Value

quantitative or

Qualitative)

Lead time for severe

weather warnings only

10 minutes to 1 hour

Lead time for

severe weather

warnings

expanded to 12

hours

Lead time for

severe

weather

warnings

expanded to

3-6 hours

Completed

iv

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2013 06/30/2016 09/15/2016

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 3 : Strengthened capacity to coordinate response to emergencies

Value

quantitative or

Qualitative)

No Emergency

Command Center to

coordinate response

among relevant

agencies.

Emergency

response drill

shows capacity

improvements as

compared to the

baseline and the

recent test of

Emergency

response drill

shows

capacity

improvement

s as

compared to

the baseline

Completed

Date achieved 05/08/2010 09/30/2014 06/30/2016 12/01/2015

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

(b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s)

Indicator Baseline Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 :

Installation of Doppler radar which improves weather monitoring and

forecasting

Value

(quantitative

or Qualitative)

No effective radar is

currently installed

As the radar is

installed,

improved

forecasts are

produced with

warnings when

appropriate

Completed

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/04/2014

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 2 : Now-casting tools, data collection and dissemination improved

Value

(quantitative

or Qualitative)

The process of

automated data

collection or

Operational now-

casting is

realized;

Operational

now-casting

is realized:

Completed

v

dissemination is not

available for an early

warning system

automated data

are collected,

disseminated and

integrated

with radar and

flash flood

system resulting

in timely

warnings for

users

automated

data are

collected,

disseminated

and

integrated

with the

radar system

and properly

visualized,

resulting in

timely

warnings for

users

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2013 06/30/2016 06/15/2016

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 3 : The ECC is established, tested and operational

Value

(quantitative

or Qualitative)

An additional floor is

built to accommodate

the ECC

ECC has been

tested and is

operational

Completed

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/04/2014

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 4 : ECC users are trained to operate the emergency management system

Value

(quantitative

or Qualitative)

No staff currently

trained in the

emergency

management

information system

Relevant

personnel (at

least 80) trained

in the emergency

management

system

established in

ECC

Relevant

personnel (at

least 90)

trained in the

emergency

management

system

established in

ECC

Completed

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/30/2016 06/04/2016

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

vi

Indicator 5 :

At least 50 investment grants provided and put on the demonstration plots

(farmers receive information about practical techniques for adaptation to

climate risks on pilot basis)

Value

(quantitative

or Qualitative)

No activities exist to

disseminate practical

experience on

adaptation to climate

risks other than drought

50 demonstration

plots are

established; 60

demonstration

and

dissemination

events are

organized

Completed. 53

investment grants

provided. 92

demonstration

and dissemination

events were

organized

Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/04/2014

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 6 :

Project supported organization(s) publish reports on the effect of

collaboration with stakeholders

Value

(quantitative

or Qualitative)

No

Yes

Yes. Completed.

The project

carried out a

country-wide

dissemination

campaign related

to

the dissemination

of climate-

resilient

agricultural

techniques tested

on the

demonstration

plots

Date achieved 04/01/2015 06/30/2016 09/15/2016

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

vii

G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs

No. Date ISR

Archived DO IP

Actual

Disbursements

(USD millions)

1 12/25/2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00

2 05/19/2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.10

3 01/03/2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.71

4 07/31/2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1.30

5 12/26/2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 3.03

6 04/26/2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.65

7 12/07/2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 6.48

8 06/21/2014 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 7.71

9 12/18/2014 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 9.15

10 06/16/2015 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.20

11 12/13/2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.37

12 06/07/2016 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 11.46

13 09/19/2016 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 11.62

H. Restructuring (if any)

Not Applicable

I. Disbursement Profile

1

1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design

1.1 Context at Appraisal

Moldova is a landlocked country located between Romania and Ukraine with a surface

area of 33,840 km2 and a population of about 3.5 million. Moldova’s economic

comparative advantage has been its fertile soil and mild temperate continental climate that

has the potential to transform the country into an important agricultural producer in the

region.

However, the country’s comparative advantage in agriculture has been increasingly

affected by global climate trends. Moldova has been experiencing more frequent and

intense extreme climatic events, such as early frosts, flash floods, hailstorms, droughts and

other extreme weather.

These extreme events result in significant economic losses and undermine the potential for

growth and poverty reduction. The 2000 drought crippled Moldovan agriculture in the

spring and summer and affected about 2.6 million people. According to the UNDP

estimates, the proportion of overall agricultural losses in affected areas was between 70

and 90 percent. The 2007 drought caused estimated losses of about US$1.0 billion; the

2008 floods cost the country about US$120 million. But even earlier, during the 1984-

2006 period, Moldova’s average annual economic losses due to natural disasters were

about US$61 million, or 2.13 percent of national GDP (EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA

International Disaster Database).

Natural disasters have a disproportionate impact on the poor and roll back development

gains in Moldova. With 57 percent of the population living and 84 percent of the poor

concentrated in rural areas, the poorest are hardest hit by weather-related hazards. Hence,

the ability to anticipate and manage climate impacts, particularly extreme

hydrometeorological events, are of critical importance for sustained poverty reduction in

Moldova.

Rationale for Bank involvement

The World Bank has been a reliable development partner for Moldova since 1993, having

provided significant budget support and investment funding for the adjustment of

Moldova’s institutions and economy to the needs of a market economy.

The Country Partnership Strategy for the relevant period, FY 09-12, stressed the need for

improved disaster risk management capabilities in the context of economic vulnerability,

particularly the impact of extreme weather events on agriculture. The subsequent CPS for

FY 12-17 highlighted the promotion of green, clean and resilient Moldova to mitigate the

debilitating effects of climatic events on agriculture and improved natural resource

management to ensure sustainable development.

2

At the time, the World Bank already had substantial institutional expertise in disaster risk

management operations. During 1984-2006, the World Bank financed 528 projects, an

estimated US$26 billion in lending, to respond to natural disasters.1 Historically, the Bank

has provided post-disaster reconstruction assistance, but the focus had already started to

shift to support disaster preparedness and mitigation, and catastrophe risk financing. In

addition, the Bank, in partnership with other organizations, had developed critical policy

tools and knowledge products, including instruments to assess post-disaster damage,

disaster area needs, hazards and vulnerability, and risk-transfer instruments.

Countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region are increasingly interested in

putting in place proactive measures that will communities and decision-makers better

prepare for and better manage disaster risks over time, including the impacts of climate

change. The Bank had supported projects in disaster risk management in Turkey, Romania,

Poland, and Albania, among others. In 2009, a major World Bank report, “Adapting to

Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia,” presents links between climate

change and disaster management, as well as a useful framework to develop climate change

adaptation action plans.2 These are examples of many similar World Bank activities to

develop a body of knowledge and practice that is useful to natural-hazard vulnerable

countries such as Moldova.

The Government of Moldova had been receiving technical assistance for disaster risk

management and climate change adaptation from other development partners, and was

willing to complement this technical assistance with the combined knowledge and

financing that the Bank is uniquely placed to offer, to reduce vulnerability to natural

hazards and introduce climate risk management policies, practices and measures.

Given the above, the World Bank was uniquely positioned to provide both technical

assistance and significant investments for building institutional capacity, adopting modern

approaches and procuring the relevant hydrometeorological and emergency response

equipment to an extent that no other multilateral or bilateral donor could match at the time

of the operation.

1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved)

The project development objective was to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological

Service’s ability to forecast severe weather and improve Moldova’s capacity to prepare for

and respond to natural disasters. The PDO was to be achieved through strengthened

capacities to: (i) monitor weather and issue early warnings of weather-related hazards by

providing timely and accurate hydro meteorological forecasts and services; (ii) manage and

coordinate responses to natural and man-made disasters; and (iii) help individuals,

particularly farmers, be aware of, and adapt to natural hazards and climate variability.

1 Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development – An IEG Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural

Disasters; Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), World Bank, 2006 2 World Bank, 2009

3

To monitor progress towards the achievement of the PDO, the project used three project

outcome indicators:

(i) More accurate and specific forecasting of weather conditions

(ii) Expanded lead-time of weather warnings to users, particularly the Department of

Exceptional Situations (DES)

(iii) Strengthened capacity to coordinate response to emergencies

In addition, the project used five intermediate outcome indicators to monitor progress in

individual components:

1. Installation of Doppler radar which improves precision of forecasting severe

weather.

2. Now-casting tools 3, data collection and dissemination is improved

3. The Emergency Command Center (ECC) is established, tested and operational.

4. The users of ECC are trained to operate the emergency management system

5. At least 50 investments grants are provided and introduced at demonstration plots

(farmers receive information about practical techniques for adaptation to climate

risks on pilot basis.

1.3 Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators, and

reasons/justification

In 2015, the project received additional financing of USD 2 million to finance cost overruns

and a resulting financing gap in the parent project. However, neither the PDO, nor the

original PDO indicators were revised.

The PAD for the additional financing highlighted that minor adjustments to the results

framework aimed at correcting the intrinsic scientific weaknesses in the definition of the

indicators were made, and that changes in the Results Framework didn’t significantly affect

the correct measurement of the achievement of the original PDO. The numerical changes

in the targets mostly affected the second PDO indicator where the lead time for severe

weather warnings was changed from 12 to 3-6 hours. There was also an increase in the

number of ECC staff trained from 80 to 90. Finally, given the mid-term decision to drop

the purchase of the flash flood system the target for ‘Now-casting tools, data collection and

dissemination improved’ was revised to edit out ‘and flash flood system’. The other

revisions are more editorial than substantive in nature.

3 The forecasting of the weather within the next six hours is often referred to as “now-casting” (Source:

Glossary of Meteorology).

4

Box 1: Summary of the Results Framework Revisions

Original PDO

Indicator

Revised PDO

Indicator

Original Target Revised Target

More accurate and

specific forecasting

of weather

conditions

More specific

forecasting of

weather conditions

Scale of weather

forecasts reduced

to 300 sq. km

No change

Expanded lead-time

of weather warnings

to users, particularly

DES

No change Lead time for

severe weather

warnings expanded

to 12 hours

Lead time for

severe weather

warnings

expanded to 3-6

hours

Strengthened

capacity to

coordinate response

to emergencies

No change Emergency

response drill

shows capacity

improvements as

compared to the

baseline and the

recent test of the

system

Emergency

response drill

shows capacity

improvements as

compared to the

baseline

Original

Intermediate

Results Indicator

Revised

Intermediate

Outcome Indicator

Original Target Revised Target

Installation of

Doppler radar which

improves precision

of forecasting severe

weather

Installation of

Doppler radar which

improves weather

monitoring and

forecasting

As the radar is

installed, improved

forecasts are

produced with

warnings when

appropriate

No change

Now-casting tools,

data collection and

dissemination

improved

No change Operational now-

casting is realized;

automated data are

collected,

disseminated and

integrated with

radar and flash

flood system

resulting in timely

warnings for users

Operational now-

casting is realized:

automated data

are collected,

disseminated and

integrated with the

radar system and

properly

visualized,

resulting in timely

warnings for users

ECC users are

trained to operate the

emergency

management system

No change Relevant personnel

(at least 80) trained

in the emergency

management

Relevant

personnel (at least

90) trained in the

emergency

5

system established

in ECC

management

system established

in ECC

New Indicator Project supported

organization(s)

publish reports on

the effect of

collaboration with

stakeholders

Yes (reports

published)

Not applicable

The revisions in the Results Framework, including the introduction of the additional

indicator were properly reflected in the Supplemental Letter #2 to the Additional

Financing Agreement.

1.4 Main Beneficiaries

The primary beneficiaries of the project were:

(i) The Government of Moldova: through strengthened capacity to forecast and respond to

severe weather. The primary beneficiary institutions were the State Hydrometeorological

Service, the Ministry of Environment, the State Department for Exceptional Situations and

the Ministry of Agriculture.

(ii) Local: the 52 farmers who were the beneficiary of the investment grants for setting

demonstration plots to pilot and test activities aimed at increasing awareness about coping

and adaptation techniques necessary to make agriculture more resilient to adverse weather.

Other beneficiaries include the farmers who participated in the trainings on climate-

resilient agricultural techniques conducted on the demonstration plots as well as the

farmers who subscribed to the just-in-time communication platform. Ultimately the general

public is benefitting from improved forecasting, early warning and disaster response

services.

1.5 Original Components (as approved)

A. Project components

The Moldova DCRMP proposes four components: (A) strengthen severe weather

forecasting; (B) improve disaster preparedness and emergency response; (C) initiate

activities for adaptation to climate risks in agriculture; and (D) support project management.

A summary of project-supported components is provided below while more detailed

description of project design is included in Annex 4.

6

Component A: Strengthen Severe Weather Forecasting

This Component aimed to strengthen the State Hydro Meteorological Service’s ability to

forecast severe weather and provide decision makers and other users with more effective,

diverse, and timely forecasts and warnings.

Sub-Component A.1 – Develop Early Warning/Now-casting Capabilities. Economic

losses from severe weather, flash floods and floods can be significantly reduced by

establishing a “now casting” system. This sub-component will strengthen data,

communications, and modeling technology to provide timely, accurate, and geographically

precise weather hazard warnings. The sub-component will support automation of the

hydrometeorological observation network to accelerate accurate data delivery to users for

more effective decision-making. This sub-component will upgrade meteorological

instruments and hydrologic gauges to automated sensing systems to provide users with data

and will also increase computer quantity and software quality to create more useful data

and effective forecast products for users. Strengthening Moldova’s hydro meteorological

data has potential for benefiting neighboring countries. Sharing of hydro meteorological

data and information with countries in the region has potential for improving forecasting

capabilities for Moldova’s SHS as well as its partners.

Sub-Component A.2 – Dual Polarization Doppler Radar Technology for Localized

Forecasts. A Dual polarization Doppler radar is now the most effective meteorological

tool to predict floods, high winds, hail, and other severe weather, and issue warnings. This

sub-component will improve meteorological modeling systems by providing a mesoscale

model and Integrated Meteorological Workstation, and eventually a hydrologic modeling

system for predicting flash–floods. These will provide best practices in delivering effective

warnings to the Department of Exceptional Situations (DES), Ministry of Agriculture and

Food Industry (MAFI) and other users of SHS services.

Sub-Component A.3 – Development of Plans for Seasonal/Climate Forecasts. Building

a real-time hydro meteorological data system is a first step to improving medium- to long-

term forecasting. Improving and automating agro-meteorological data collection and

distribution will improve drought forecasting. The next phase in strengthening hydro

meteorological forecasting for drought involves expanding forecasting capability to

monthly and seasonal scales. SHS is developing a monthly climate forecasting program,

and starting to build a national drought forecasting center, which is part of the World

Meteorological Organization Eastern Europe Regional drought forecasting program.

Building the data system leads to more effective input to Global and Regional Decadal

climate forecasting models to improve accuracy of model simulations to use for adaptation.

This sub-component will support the SHS to develop plans for such a data system and, if

resources permit, to provide investments for equipment.

Capacity Building. To ensure that the proposed Project investments are implemented

effectively and that the SHS upgrades its technical capacity, the Global Facility for Disaster

Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) has agreed to provide a US$100,000 technical

assistance grant in support of the proposed Project. This grant is expected to finance

additional staff training in using new equipment and provide opportunities for SHS staff to

7

benefit from international experience in weather and climate service delivery. Some

portion of the grant may be used to strengthen DES capacity to coordinate disaster response.

Component B: Improve Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Response

This Component aimed to strengthen Government capacity to manage emergencies and

coordinate disaster response among levels of government agencies by establishing and

operating an Emergency Command Center (ECC), and associated capacity-building

activities.

The ECC would facilitate joint disaster response with agency representatives and could

assemble decision makers. It would operate continuously, equipped with a decision-

support system to enhance the flow of crucial DES data, such as hydro meteorological

forecasts and SHS alerts; this would allow DES to issue timely warnings, and undertake

prevention and response measures, including evacuating affected populations.

Sub-Component B.1 - Feasibility Study and Design. The Project will support feasibility

and design studies as a basis to establish the ECC. The two studies will include: (a) ECC

architectural design within the DES headquarters that ensures seismic resilience of

structural and non-structural features, and efficient space planning; and (b) information

management system design to link DES headquarters with DES local offices and sectoral

institutions such as SHS, Ministries of Environment and Agriculture, Institute of Geology

and Geophysics, and others. The design would include voice and data transfer capacity and

two-way information processing, support daily DES operations, and integrate existing

legacy systems. This design will be informed by existing coordination mechanisms in the

country as well as by seeking input from other agencies that participate in disaster

preparedness and response.

Sub-Component B.2 - Establish Emergency Command Center. When feasibility and

design studies are complete, the Project will support establishment of the ECC by financing

the following: (i) facility renovation and refurbishment works; (ii) ECC furniture and

equipment; (iii) information technology (IT) hardware; (iv) emergency information

management software; and (v) communication equipment.

Sub-Component B.3 – Capacity Building and Evaluation. DES employees will staff the

ECC on an as-needed basis, along with staff from other agencies, particularly during

emergencies. The Project will support capacity building for DES and other agencies by

providing training in emergency management information system, particularly operating

the IT decision-support system, for an estimated 100 staff from 15 agencies and all regional

and local DES units. To ensure sustainability and facilitate knowledge transfer, capacity

building will be designed as “train the trainers” so participants can transfer knowledge to

their colleagues.

Component C: Initiate Activities for Adaptation to Climate Risks in Agriculture

The objective of the component was to enhance the practical application of agro-

meteorological information in the agriculture sector in order to increase its resilience

towards adverse weather effects. This objective will be achieved through support to the

following activities.

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Sub-Component C.1 – Development of a Just-in-Time (JIT) Communication Platform.

This sub-component will support the development of the technical architecture (software

and hardware) of a mobile JIT communication platform that could serve as a tool to rapidly

disseminate critical, localized weather information to a large number of farmers and rural

communities. Sub-component C.1 would support the design and testing of the

communication platform, including free dissemination of the service to a farmer focus

group. The design will focus on the information flows of severe weather alerts originating

from the SHS to farmers via a content provider associated with the Ministry of Agriculture

and Food Industry (MAFI), and in collaboration with mobile communication companies.

Following the design and testing phases the platform could be fully rolled-out by MAFI in

collaboration with the SHS and mobile phone companies. Furthermore, the platform could

be expanded to evolve into an early warning system that would combine current and

forecasted agro-meteorological data to simulate scenarios for crop development, and

provide farmers with advice on necessary mitigation/enhancement agronomical measures.

Last but not least, the platform can be modulated to include dissemination of other critical

information to farmers, such as market and extension information. In this context, synergies

with the e-Governance project currently under preparation will also be explored. This sub-

component is linked to SHS improvements under Component A.

Sub-Component C.2 – Adverse Weather Adaptation Advisory Services. Sub-component

C.2 would provide technical advisory services, including grant investment support to

farmers, farmer groups and rural communities for piloting and testing activities aimed at

increasing awareness about coping and adaptation techniques necessary to make

agriculture more resilient to adverse weather. It will build on the country’s existing

experience in implementing demonstration plots for adaptation to drought through

extension services and aim to expand the existing knowledge base and awareness in the

farming community about adaptation techniques to a wider spectrum of risks, such as: (i)

frost; (ii) excess snow and water cover of winter crops; (iii) hail storms; (iv) drought; (v)

inundation of crops from torrential downpours and rising river waters. Investments

supported will include on-farm irrigation, water harvesting basins, anti-hail net systems,

protective forest belts, conservation land cultivation, as well as other activities with

adaptation potential. Selection of beneficiaries for sub-component C.2 would be done

through a competitive scheme with clear technical, social and financial eligibility criteria.

Component D: Project Management

This component will provide fiduciary support for the implementation of the three

components. In essence, fiduciary services will be centralized for the proposed Project.

The POPs Project Management Team (PMT) housed in the Ministry of Environment will

be the Project’s fiduciary entity. In particular, the support will enhance the financial

management and procurement functions as well as, if necessary, the technical aspects of

project implementation, including monitoring and evaluation.

1.6 Revised Components

There were no substantial revisions of the project components. The scope of the project

after the mid-term review, as well as with the processing of the additional funding to the

parent project, essentially remained the same. However, there is one important caveat

9

regarding the scaling down of support for hydrological services, namely the decision not

to acquire flash flood forecasting models/capabilities, in favor of a stronger focus on

enhancing severe weather forecasting capacity. Originally, the intermediate outcome

indicator related to ‘now-casting tools, data collection and dissemination improved’

included the dissemination from three sources of weather information: automated weather

stations, the radar and a flash flood forecasting system. However, this could not materialize

given the unsuitability of available modeling solutions to the Moldovan context and the

lack of project funds and time to develop a customized system. In addition, the European

Investment Bank (EIB) committed to fund the Moldova Flood Protection project, which

was to develop the SHS’ capacity to forecast floods, as well as develop a master plan and

investment program for the sub-sector.

1.7 Other significant changes

The closing date of the original parent project was extended by one year from September

30, 2014 to September 30, 2015.

The parent project received additional financing of US$ 2 million on May 19, 2015 to cover

the cost overruns and ensuing financing gap resulting from increased construction costs

and the need to develop customized software for the Emergency Command Center under

Component B. The project’s closing date was thus again extended to September 30, 2016,

to allow for the development of the customized software for and associated staff training

of the SHS, as well as to complete some of the Component A procurements which had been

delayed.

2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes

2.1 Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry

Soundness of the background analysis – the background analysis for the project

was generally sound. The project design was informed by the recommendations

developed under the South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaption

Program (SEEDRMAP), a joint WB/GFDRR and UNISDR initiative that identified

hazard monitoring, early earning, disaster management and climate change

adaptation as issues requiring special attention in the region. The project design was

informed by other WB supported projects in the region, e.g. Croatia, Poland,

Turkey and Russia. The main lesson that emerged from those projects was that

ensuring system integration was key to improved forecasting and service delivery.,

The multiple systems needed for hydrometeorological services delivery including

observation, data management, meteorology, hydrology, climatology, visualization,

forecasting and dissemination must communicate effortlessly with each other.

Therefore, the project activities related to weather forecasting had the inter-

operability of the acquired systems as a driving theme. While early in the project

there were some misunderstandings of the utility of certain equipment by the

project team, for example the weather radar, the project was eventually able to

10

integrate the procurements into a modern forecast production approach. The project

also benefited from analytical work provided by other donors, such as UNDP and

the local think tank community. The rationale for Bank’s intervention was sound

as the WB possessed the unique combination, among other donors, of both

technical knowledge and experience and the ability to provide the required

investment to strengthen Moldova’s ability to forecast and respond to natural

disasters.

Assessment of the project design – the objective of the project was clear and derived

from the need to address existing country capacity constraints to monitor severe

weather events and increase the ability of various stakeholders to respond to them

to minimize economic and human losses. While the project involved three

Moldovan institutions (the State Hydrometeorological Service, the State

Department of Exceptional Situations and the Ministry of Agriculture), the project

design cannot be qualified as overly complex. Its components targeted limited and

specific priority improvements in those institutions/sectors that were expected to

contribute to the improved country capacity to identify and respond to climate risks.

As an example, Component B did not purport to bring about a comprehensive

institutional overhaul of the DES. Instead, it focused on the specific ability of that

institution to respond quickly to emerging natural and man-made disasters by

building a modern command center capable of accepting and processing incoming

information with the subsequent ability to respond speedily to emergencies. The

individual components’ activities were not on a critical path to each other. Hence,

the number of beneficiary institutions did not hamper implementation progress, as

they could be performed in parallel and independently of each other. At the same

time there were outcome interdependences, for example timely DES action and the

ability of the just-in-time platform to inform farmers with useful lead-time about

weather hazards is dependent on the timeliness and quality of SHS forecasts and

early warnings. To keep project management coherent, the task team made use of

a project management unit that was experienced with WB fiduciary procedures.

The project design probably overestimated the institutional capacity of the SHS, as

well as underestimated the potential for fluidity of management and staff, to

implement a project of this nature. More upfront dialogue with the Government of

Moldova on the role and status of the institution, investment in capacity training,

and the development of an organizational strategic plan could have served as

enabling reference points for an institution that went through five changes of top

management throughout implementation. Additionally, while the decision to bring

the PMT on board was a sound one, their earlier involvement in the project

preparation could have been beneficial in establishing a better relationship between

the implementing entities, particularly with the SHS which seems to have struggled

in understanding the PMT’s fiduciary role.

Adequacy of government commitment - the commitment of the Government of

Moldova at entry was high. The country was dealing with the consequences of the

2010 floods in the north and the importance of enhanced ability to receive early

warnings and manage natural hazards was on top of the government agenda at that

11

time. There was a high degree of commitment and active involvement from the

participating institutions at the project design phase. However, that commitment

varied across implementation timeframe and the implementing institutions. The

SHS and its supervising Ministry of Environment were particularly affected by the

frequent changes in management which hampered progress in component A (see

below the sections on implementation and Government Performance)

Relevance of Risks Identified and Mitigation Measures – the project team identified

risks that were relevant to project success: (i) incremental costs associated with the

operation and maintenance of the procured equipment; (ii) the relatively low level

of implementation capacity; and (iii) the political risks associated with the

willingness to share improved hydrometeorological data with other agencies,

neighboring countries and international organizations. The team discussed those

risks with the Government of Moldova at project design and received assurances

that those incremental Operations and Maintenance (O&M) costs will be covered

by the budget. With the benefit of hindsight, the project underestimated the

institutional strengthening required to successfully operate and utilize the acquired

equipment in the case of SHS. While equipment-related O&M aspects were

considered, the human side of the operation was underestimated. Due to low pay,

as well as other institutional weaknesses, the ability of the SHS to retain trained

forecasters and ITC (Information Technology and Communication) staff remained

limited. The project team, however, took that into account at the mid-term review

when it commissioned a review of the status of the SHS, which produced, among

other things, recommendations to increase SHS’s visibility, status, and budget, and

hence improve its ability to retain qualified staff.

2.2 Implementation

There were two major factors that affected project implementation: i) implementation

delays related primarily to the Component A of the project; ii) costs overruns in component

A and B that led to the provision of additional financing to cover those overruns. Here is a

description of implementation by project component.

Implementation under Component A was the most challenging, with preparation of

technical specifications and terms of reference, as well as ensuing procurements

chronically behind schedule. Despite trainings for staff, including participation in

the Turin-based procurement courses, and continuous PMT support, the SHS’s

technical specifications were frequently not vendor-neutral, inconsistent, and

technically questionable, which delayed the acquisition process. This is not

uncommon; technical specifications for hydrometeorological equipment are

notoriously difficult to develop properly, even for high income countries. Due to

political instability in the country, the project was confronted with frequent changes

in management. There were five changes at the top of SHS during project

preparation and implementation and four changes of Environment Ministers meant

that the institution was often without the required management leadership, direction

and supervision. There was a natural learning curve for the incoming directors

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which also led to delays and sometimes changing priorities, e.g. one of the directors

questioned the need for building houses for meteorological observation stations,

and consequently plans for the construction of one such house was abandoned. The

implementation suffered a particularly bad period when the SHS was without a

General Director or a project focal point for about 8 months in 2013, resulting in

near full lack of disbursements. That resulted in an accumulated backlog of

uncommitted funds of close to USD 2 million. All this had the unfortunate domino

effect of delaying and reducing the capacity building phase required for bringing

this equipment to full operational use. For example, the automated weather stations,

a critical component for the now-casting capacity of the SHS, was delivered very

close to the revised project completion end date, leaving little time within the

project time-frame for integrating these tools and the Doppler radar into a local

visualization and forecasting platform to deliver weather-related services as

originally intended by the project.

Implementation under Component B was relatively even throughout the project

cycle. Although the procurement and preparation of the feasibility studies and the

construction design of the Emergency Command Center took longer than originally

planned, once completed, the remaining activities were generally on target for the

remainder of the project with small and manageable time variances. The

Emergency Command Center was commissioned in August, 2013, well within the

closing date of the parent project. However, due to the additional time needed to

develop a customized software program as opposed to the purchase of an off-the-

shelf package, as suggested by the feasibility studies, and the required subsequent

staff training, the component required a time-extension. This component also

produced the largest cost overrun, its total cost increasing from $2.6 million to $4.4

million, funded originally by the unused funds from the behind-the-schedule

Component A and later by the additional financing agreed by IDA. While the

project estimated construction needs at US$ 379,000 at appraisal, the actual costs

were twice the estimate at US$ 793,052. This is accounted for by the fact that the

actual costs were determined by the two project-financed feasibility studies which

recommended a more complex construction solution than envisaged at appraisal

and price inflation for construction works. However, the more significant overrun

was caused by the determination that the originally recommended off-the-shelf

software could not be adjusted to the needs of the ECC concept proposed by the

feasibility studies and an original system had to be developed from scratch. Original

equipment costs were also underestimated.

Implementation under Component C was the least problematic of all components

both in terms of implementation timing and cost overruns. The development of the

just-in-time communication platform was contracted to the National Rural

Development Agency (ACSA) which is the national rural extension service. The

platform was designed on time and became fully operational in October 2012. The

additional benefit of contracting the development of the system to ACSA was in

the synergies achieved through integration with a different system developed earlier

– the Agriculture Marketing Information System. The idea showed a lot of promise

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in the beginning, however as things evolved, the relevance of the just-in-time

system to the farmers showed its limitations due to the continued limited capacity

of the State Hydrometeorological Service to provide localized weather forecasts.

Additionally, the ability of the platform to send mobile notifications en-masse to

farmers in case of adverse weather is constrained by the technical capacity of the

mobile operators present on the Moldovan market, a fact that was not considered

fully at project design. That resulted in relative modest take-up of the service. The

number of subscribers reached 1109 and has remained essentially stagnant after

activity completion.

ACSA was also contracted to implement the Adverse Weather Adaptation

Advisory Services. By all accounts, the activity was a great success, and this

approach is now scaled up through the upcoming Moldova Climate Adaptation

Project. The interaction between the focal point at the Ministry of Food Agriculture,

ACSA and the project management unit was effective and it resulted in fifty-three

grants implemented to showcase various approaches to improved resilience to

climate change to around 3000 farmers. More importantly, two hundred and twenty

farmers replicated the practices on their own farms in the post-training and

demonstration phase.

Bank’s Response to Implementation Challenges - The Bank team’s reaction to

emerging problems was adequate and timely. The team had intensive discussions

with both the Steering Committee and the Ministry of Environment highlighting

the risks of further delays to the development outcome. At one point, the team

considered the cancellation of Component A in case of continued inaction. To

improve project progress and chances of achieving the development outcomes,

after the mid-term review, the project offered more support for the SHS institutional

strengthening by funding the development of a strategic institutional development

plan with TF resources. It also funded the technical assistance to develop the legal

package to change the SHS status within the Moldovan public sector to allow

improved remuneration and income-generating activities to retain qualified staff.

Finally, to prevent further delays, the Bank team was wise in tactically reallocating

the uncommitted funds from Component A to Component B to fund the emerging

funding gap while processing the additional financing in parallel.

2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization

The key performance indicators in the PAD Section A were the same as in the

Supplemental Letter for the Parent Project (please refer to Section 1.2). When the

additional financing was approved, there were several minor changes in the results

framework (discussed in detail in Section 1.3). Similarly, the performance indicators in the

PAD for Additional Financing coincide with those in the supplemental letter.

Design -The results framework is compact and generally struck a sound balance

between the number of indicators and the ability to capture anticipated performance

improvements in the key institutions involved in the early warning of and response

14

to severe weather events, without resorting to an overwhelming number of

indicators. The result framework is logical with an easy-to-understand flow from

intermediate outcomes to project outcomes. In fact, the WB operations department

highlighted this particular framework as an exemplary results framework and the

staff associated with the project made several presentations at WB-organized

operational workshops. However, one area of potential future improvement is to

monitor not only weather forecast resolution, but also quality (in terms of accuracy

and skill verification).

That said, the intermediate indicators related to the establishment of the Emergency

Command Center could have been slightly more specific in capturing

improvements. While the baseline was zero (or in some cases nonspecific), the

project could have attempted to measure a set of more specific, global standard

target values for emergency institutions, such as response time, and have them

monitored and reported during the drill exercises.

The results framework could have benefited from the addition of an intermediate

outcome indicator related to the development of the just-in-time communication

platform which was supposed to be the tool through which the farmers would

receive localized weather information from SHS. This represents a critical link in

the project logic which was expected to build the capability to warn farmers about

adverse weather.

Finally, there is no clarity whether the additional indicator related to dissemination

of the project results referred to the entire project or only to Component C, the

piloting of climate-resilient techniques. The PAD is vague and the PMT suggested

that this indicator related only to the dissemination of results achieved under

Component C related to climate-resilient techniques.

In terms of baseline values and numerical values for measuring progress, the first

two PDO indicators had both baseline values and end target numerical values. The

value for the third outcome indicator was zero as capacity was considered non-

existent at project initiation. Similarly, the baseline value for the intermediate

indicators was zero as the project built capability that was non-existent or very

poorly monitored in the country prior to the intervention. The results framework

did provide a timeframe for the achievement of each indicator that followed

logically from the implementation of project outputs. However, given important

implementation delays, some of the actions shifted naturally beyond the life of the

project. For example, the SHS visualization and forecasting platform was supplied

extremely close to the end date of the project, such that no package of services

could be developed within the project time-frame as the beneficiary, SHS in this

particular case, is still in the process of learning and adopting these tools. Hence, it

will be able to develop useful, relevant localized weather products/information to

potential users only after the completion of the project, also with continued Bank

support under a recently approved BETF (Bank Executed Trust Fund).

15

Implementation - There was no dedicated M&E staff to collect and track progress

in terms of indicators, which was not necessary given the relative parsimony of the

project log-frame. The PMT was responsible for collecting information from

implementing institutions and updating the results framework bi-annually for

reporting purposes to the Steering Committee and Bank supervision teams.

Utilization - The Steering Committee and the Bank teams used the updated results

framework more as a bird’s view snapshot of bi-annual status and progress towards

the development outcome rather than a day-by-day progress monitoring tool. The

tool was useful as it allowed decision-makers to focus on the critical issues and try

to induce corrective actions. The results framework was developed solely for the

implementation of this project and was not intended to live on beyond the project

completion date. The outcome indicators remain useful, in principle, for SHS in

tracking its operations as a reminder of the original purpose of the equipment and

tools acquired under the project.

2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance

Financial Management – The project benefited from the experience of a project

management unit which implemented other World Bank-funded project prior to the

Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project. The World Bank reviews rated the

financial management system as moderately satisfactory throughout the project cycle. All

the annual audits of the project resulted in unqualified opinions. There were two issues

flagged and addressed: (i) in FY 2012, the auditors brought the issue of manual

transposition of accounting records from the Statement of Expenditures into the financial

reports due to lack of specialized accounting software. The PMT contracted a private IT

specialist who helped them upgrade the accounting software to address the issue to the

satisfaction of the IDA financial management specialist, and (ii) The second issue related

to the annual inventory of the assets procured under the project. While the PMT performed

annual inventory of its assets on regular basis, the assets procured for the project

beneficiaries were not monitored after their transfer into beneficiaries’ custody.

Consequently, the PMT was advised to ensure monitoring of these assets either through

including them in the annual inventory performed by PMT, or asking the beneficiaries to

provide the copy of their inventory lists on annual basis. The PMT decided to carry out the

inventory of those assets by themselves and this was done in summer of 2015.

Procurement - the PMT procurement expert supported all three components, providing

day-to-day guidance to the relevant implementation agency personnel on acquisitions and

the consequent contract management. All the staff from the three Moldovan implementing

institutions (SHS, DES and MAFI) involved in the procurement process attended

procurement training courses in Turin. The project organized study visits for SHS staff to

familiarize them with various suppliers in cases where expensive and sophisticated

equipment had to be purchased. The Bank team helped the SHS by providing sample

specifications for more complex procurements, such as the Doppler radar. The three post-

review exercises carried out by the WB procurement team raised no procurement or fraud

16

and corruption concerns. Compliance and performance risks have been consistently rated

as low.

Disbursement - The Project disbursed behind the schedule throughout its life due to

implementation challenges in Component A. However, in its last implementation year, it

essentially converged with and surpassed the original disbursement schedule. The balance

of undisbursed funds at completion of the grace period for payments was less than 0.1%

(US$10,000).

Environmental Assessment - The Project was rated “category B” as it supported several

construction activities: the installation of the tower for the weather radar, the construction

of four weather and hydrological monitoring stations and finally the renovation of the

building for the Emergency Command Center. There were also environmental concerns

under Component C related to the construction works on some of the demonstration plots,

e.g. construction of water-collection ponds. The project developed Environmental

Management plans for all construction sites that covered environmental, labor safety and

proper equipment for use on sites. The visiting teams regularly verified the compliance

with the Environmental Plans as well as proper supervision and monitoring of the plan by

the PMT. The Aide Memoires confirm that the Environmental Management Plan (EMP)

recommendations have all been essentially met although the Bank team had to draw

continuous attention to the need to ensure proper safety gear on construction sites.

Social safeguards - No social safeguards were triggered. The construction sites were all on

government-owned land which was not in use either legally or illegally. Public

consultations were organized on all sites, with local communities being informed about the

scope, impact and expected benefits of the project. The Bank teams’ reported compliance

with the social safeguards during their regular supervision visits.

2.5 Post-completion Operation/Next Phase

Given the delays in the implementation of Component A due to frequent changes in

management at SHS and the resulting lack of institutional direction and management

leadership in the intermittent phases, the component’s achieved outcomes continue to

suffer from lack of robustness. Despite the advances made under the project in building the

SHS’s technical capability, the capacity of the SHS to make full use of it to provide

customized, relevant and localized weather, climate and meteorological services to various

users is still fairly limited.

The ability of the SHS to find, attract and retain qualified staff to use the state-of-the art

equipment is still constrained as the SHS’s status to improve remuneration was not changed

despite the support provided by the project. The interviews with the SHS management

indicate that they intend to follow up on some of the institutional recommendations in the

post-completion phase.

Given improvements in performance closer to the end of the project and the recent stability

in the SHS management, a follow-up grant of $500,000 was secured from the Global

Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recover (GFDRR) to help develop the SHS into a more

17

service delivery-oriented agency, guided by the World Meteorological Organization’s

(WMO) Strategy for Service Delivery. This is a useful and needed follow-up activity that

is likely to help cement the development achievements of the project and ensure the

sustainability of the investments under the original project. Interviews with the current

management indicated that they do plan to pursue actions that would enable the SHS to

generate income and improve pay, although it must be noted that even in the most advanced

national hydrometeorological services, income from fee-based services tends to be limited

to a maximum of 20% of total budget. Fee-based services are only successful if they are of

high quality and reliable, and if users/clients have the resources to pay, both of which

continue to be challenges in Moldova.

On the other hand, the DES Emergency Command Center is fully operational, staffed and

budgeted for in terms of post-completion O&M. The Ministry of Finance increased the

budgetary allocation for DES for the operation and maintenance of the ECC by MDL 4.0

million annually. Further DES capacity strengthening is considered under the forthcoming

Climate Adaptation Project. The proposed project is considering the establishment of one

regional Emergency Command Center in Balti, as per the recommendations of the project-

funded feasibility study, to ensure better quality of services at the local level, improve

efficiency of support for remote locations, better support tactical field operations. It will

further build preparedness and response capacity through technical assistance and

investments in equipment, such as fire and rescue vehicles, extreme winter conditions

access capacity, temporary flood management modules, electricity and heat generation, etc.

Similarly, the follow up Climate Adaptation Project will build upon and scale up the

adoption of climate-smart agriculture technologies piloted and tested under the third

component of the Disaster and Climate Risk Management project, such as minimum and

no-till agriculture, drip irrigation, greenhouses, and UV/hail nets.

No follow up work is currently envisaged in terms of removing the existing constraints

related to the optimal use of the just-in-time communication platform built under

Component C, i.e. required improvements in the technical capabilities of the Moldovan

mobile operators to be able to send early warnings messages with useful lead time for users.

These require relatively substantial investments and cannot be forced upon private

operators. It would be useful to keep the issue in the ongoing policy dialogue with the

Government if the platform is to fulfil its original purpose of transmitting just-in-time

localized weather information to subscribed farmers.

3. Assessment of Outcomes

3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation

The Project objectives, design, and implementation continue to remain highly relevant to

Moldova’s development and environmental priorities. The Government of Moldova,

through the Ministry of Environment and with donor-support, developed and approved a

National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for six most vulnerable sectors of the

18

Moldovan economy: agriculture, water resources, forestry, human health, energy and

infrastructure that envisage climate-adaptation investments in these sectors. Reflecting

national priorities, the third pillar of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY14-17

focuses on “promoting a green, clean and resilient Moldova.” The new Systematic Country

Diagnostic (SCD, 2016), validated the hypothesis that climate risk is important for

achieving the twin goals in Moldova. Consistent with the CPS and the national strategy,

the WB Climate Adaptation Investment Planning Technical Assistance conducted a

quantitative assessment of adaptation investment opportunities and returns across the target

sectors.

The capability built in the three institutions under the project continues to be of critical

importance to Moldova’s ability to manage vulnerabilities in those six sectors. These

capabilities will be further strengthened and scaled up through the proposed Moldova

Climate Adaptation Project informed by the WB Climate Adaptation Investment Planning

TA.

3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives

A review of the project development objectives, results and intermediate results indicators

suggests that the project has met the project outcome indicators at completion, although in

relation to SHS the robustness of the achievements leaves to be desired and the risks to the

outcomes remain substantial.

The project objective: is to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological Service’s ability to

forecast severe weather and improve Moldova’s capacity to prepare for and respond to

natural disasters.

PDO Indicators

More specific forecasting of weather conditions.

Baseline: Scale of weather forecasts at 5000 sq. km.

End Target: Scale of weather forecasts reduced to 300 sq.km

Status: The indicator was achieved as the SHS has significantly upgraded its

technical capability with state-of-the-art equipment (weather radar and automatic

weather stations), as well as capacity to assess and utilize regional and global high

resolution information and utilize outputs from global and regional numerical

models such as those of the ECMWF4 (visualization, data analysis and now-casting

tools), to be able to provide weather forecasts at the end target scale. While the

project focused on severe weather such as storms, droughts and extreme

temperatures, by strengthening capacity to forecast basic weather parameters such

as temperature, precipitation and wind, general weather forecasting has also

improved. However, as mentioned above, the robustness of this outcome remains

tenuous, due to possible loss of capacity to utilize instruments and models as SHS’s

institutional issues described above persist. Also, more work is necessary to

4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

19

develop customized weather-related services, particularly for the DES and farmers,

and is likely to supported be with further assistance from the GFDRR grant in the

post-project phase. Finally despite improvements in resolution, quality (in terms of

accuracy and skill) of forecasts needs to be better monitored and if necessary

improved.

Expanded lead-time of weather warnings to users, particularly the Department of

Exceptional Situations (DES)

Baseline: Lead time for severe weather warnings only 10 minutes to 1 hour.

End target: Lead time for severe weather warnings expanded to 3-6 hours.

Status: The indicator was achieved as the communications interface between the

two agencies exists and the ability to provide the required lead-time exists, with

data exchange happening in real time. The utility for emergency response depends

on the ability of SHS to analyze and interpret the raw data coming from the radar,

automated stations and other sources. This capacity is currently fragile, but will be

further strengthened as the SHS will improve its capacity to use the infrastructure

provided by the project, and as further support from the GFDRR grant is provided

for fine-tuning existing and developing new weather information delivery

mechanisms to the DES, as well as other SHS customers. SHS’s recent joining and

launching of MeteoAlarm under EUMETNET5, supported by this project, UNDP

and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG),

reflects existing improvements.

Strengthened capacity to coordinate response to emergencies.

Baseline: No Emergency Command Center to coordinate response among relevant

agencies.

End target: Emergency response drill shows capacity improvements as compared

to the baseline.

Status: The target is achieved as the reports on two emergency drills conducted

during the project lifetime showed capacity improvements in timely mobilization

of relevant authorities and emergency operational units in case of modelled

exceptional situations during the drills. Following implementation completion the

country has not experienced weather-related hazards that would have put the ECC

to the real test. However, the DES is also responsible for responding to man-made

disasters, fires and traffic accidents. The DES management report that

consolidation of emergency call services under the centralized ECC helped improve

the speed of response and deployment of the closest to the DES accident teams. In

the future, the DES would benefit from defining a set of clear and measurable

emergency response indicators for further use in its daily operations.

5 European Meteorological Services Network

20

Intermediate Outcome Indicators

Installation of Doppler radar which improves weather monitoring and forecasting.

Baseline: No effective radar is currently installed.

End target: The radar system is operational.

Status: the indicator was achieved, as the radar system was commissioned in

March 2014. The SHS staff was trained to use the numerical software used to

analyze the incoming raw data and transform it into useful weather products. SHS

and Moldavian Air Traffic Services Authority (MoldATSA) are co-sharing the

radar which is an important arrangement for the sustainability of the investment as

MoldATSA is a more reliably funded agency.

Nowcasting tools, data collection and dissemination improved.

Baseline: The process of automated data collection and dissemination is not

available.

End target: Operational nowcasting is realized: automated data are collected and

integrated with the radar system and properly visualized resulting in timely

warnings for users.

Status: The indicator was completed, although it must be mentioned that the

automated weather stations were acquired with significant delays and delivered

close to the project closing date. This, in turn, delayed the SHS ability to collect,

assimilate and disseminate improved data. The supplier was providing the

required training for SHS users at the time of this ICR writing. Upon completion,

the SHS will be able to use these stations for improved data collection, assimilate

the data from the stations, Doppler radar, global remote sensing and forecast

providers (EUMETSAT6, ECMWF, etc.) through the procured visualization and

forecasting platform, to provide localized weather forecasts.

The Emergency Command Center (ECC) is established, tested and operational

Baseline: An additional floor is built to accommodate the ECC

End target: ECC has been tested and operational.

Status: The Command Center was tested and fully operational. It is a fully

operational state-of-the-art facility that is used by the Committee for Exceptional

Situations for its bi-annual meetings and for regular emergency drills.

The users of ECC are trained to operate the emergency management system

Baseline: no staff currently trained in the emergency management information

system.

End target: Relevant personnel (at least 90) trained in the emergency management

system established in ECC.

Status: completed and operational, 90 ECC users were trained and fully proficient

in using the technical capabilities of the command center.

6 European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites

21

At least 50 investments grants provided and put on the demonstration plots

(farmers receive information about practical techniques for adaptation to climate

risks on pilot basis)

Baseline: No activities exist to disseminate practical experience on adaptation to

climate risks other than drought

End Target: 50 demonstration plots are established; 60 demonstration and

dissemination events are organized

Status: The intermediate outcome was met and exceeded. 53 grants had been

provided to set up demonstration plots on climate-resilient practices; 220 other

farmers have replicated the practices on their farms; and 3000 farmers overall

participated in the trainings conducted on the demonstration plots.

Project supported organization(s) publish reports on the effect of collaboration with

stakeholders

Baseline: ‘No’ implying that no disemination efforts were carried or planned

origianlly

End target: ‘Yes’ implying that the results were actively disseminated via various

media channels

Status: The project advertised extensively the availability of the demonstration

plots and the climate-resilient farming techniques by targeting the farmers through

various media tools: 100 media articles; 70 radio broadcasts; 37 TV broadcasts and

video clips; 6 specialized editions about the activities promoted under Component

C on the nation-wide show ‘Bastina’ targeted mostly to rural residents and farmers.

3.3 Efficiency

The original appraisal used conservative assumptions to estimate potential project

performance resulting in an economic rate of return (ERR) of 25 percent, net present value

(NPV) of US$10.3 million, and a benefit-cost (B/C) ratio of 2.0. Subsequent assessment to

prepare the Additional Financing indicated that the addition of US$2.0 million to the costs

would not prevent the project from achieving the originally estimated ERR and B/C ratio,

due to the introduction into the analysis of the mitigated damages (project benefit) for the

catastrophic drought of 2012.

A more detailed and more conservative approach was applied for the post-project economic

performance assessment (see Annex 3 for details) which indicated that the Project with

Additional Financing performed on par with or even better than expected in economic

terms. Even with the most conservative assumptions, the Project is delivering more benefits

than costs at a rate of return greater than the assumed opportunity cost of capital (discount

rate). The ex-post economic analysis indicates solid levels of efficiency in the

implementation of the project.

The project was implemented efficiently. Although project implementation experienced

delay, the project management cost was only 6.4 % of the total project cost.

22

3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating

Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

The PDO’s objective remains relevant to Moldova’s ability to prepare for and respond to

natural disasters. The national technical capability was significantly improved with state-

of-the art equipment and information systems both at the SHS and DES. The Emergency

Command Center is fully operational. At project completion, the SHS was not able to use

the upgraded capability to the full extent while the development of the flash flood

forecasting system was dropped. The SHS is poised to develop further its range of

customized weather-related services in the post-implementation period with the help of a

WB/GFDRR grant and support from other bilateral donors, thus making maximum use of

the upgraded equipment and systems and significantly enhancing the development

objective.

3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts

(a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development

The project did not specifically target the poorer sections of Moldovan society. The focus

of the project, particularly of the first two components, was to build the domestic capacity

to provide a public good, i.e. the improved response by national emergency authorities to

weather-related disasters, which benefits the entire society. However, given that such

climate-related disasters disproportionately affect the rural population where most of the

Moldovan poor resides, the investments are expected to have a greater positive impact on

the poor.

Despite almost 80% of the poor and 70% the of lowest 40% of the population by income

being employed in the agricultural sector, and women being more vulnerable to

unfavorable climate conditions, the project missed the opportunity to explicitly integrate

poverty and gender targeting in the selection criteria for the demonstration plots that piloted

climate-resilient techniques. This could have provided important lessons on what

techniques/investments are affordable to the poor and which are beyond their reach.

(b) Institutional Change/Strengthening

The project built capacity in three Moldovan institutions. The project provided modern

forecasting equipment and training on how to use it for the SHS. It strengthened the

capacity of the DES by building a state-of-the-art Emergency Command Center now fully

operational and used by Moldovan authorities in responses to natural and man-made

disasters. Finally, it built capacity at the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry to run

pilot schemes to test modern and climate-responsive agricultural techniques (knowledge

generation). Officials at two institutions, SHS and DES, stressed the capacity

improvements induced by the implementation of a WB-funded project, particularly in

terms of procurement of complex works and goods and developing complex technical

specifications for such acquisitions.

23

(c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative)

The acquisition of the Doppler radar had a positive impact on the Moldovan aviation sector,

particularly the safety of air flights to and from Moldova. The WB insistence on locating

the radar on the premises of MOLDATSA and its use by the agency bodes well for the

sustainability of this investment in Moldova. Although not captured by the results

framework, there is anecdotal evidence that the grant scheme for demonstration plots from

Component C led to the emergence of a network of suppliers of climate-resilient tools and

equipment that was non-existent in the country prior to the implementation the scheme.

Perhaps not totally unintended or unexpected, but similarly not captured in the results

framework, Component C of the project resulted in about 220 climate-resilient practices

replicated on other farms during the lifetime of the project.

3.6 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops

No project completion workshop was held as the Moldova project proponents deemed it

unnecessary due to the small number of well-defined stakeholders, i.e. essentially just the

implementing agencies and their subordinated institutions. Workshops were held by ACSA

upon completion of implementation of Component C, to discuss results with farmers and

consult them on scaling up of adaptation technologies.

4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome

Rating: Significant

The risks to the development outcome remains high. These mainly relate to the

sustainability of the investments made at SHS. Although the SHS’s technical capability

has been significantly upgraded by the project, the SHS’ capacity to fully use the available

equipment on a continuous basis and provide customized weather-related services to the

DES, farmers and other potential clients is still limited. The project helped develop a

strategic organizational plan for SHS that foresaw a change in its status within the

Moldovan public administration with the ability to increase staff salaries and generate

additional income. However, again due to political turmoil, the proposed changes have not

yet been passed by Moldovan authorities and translated into action. Hence, the SHS ability

to retain the skilled staff required to operate sophisticated weather forecasting equipment

remains constrained. Finally, the allocation of the budget required for operation and

maintenance of the acquired equipment will continue to remain a concern.

These risks will be, to a large extent, mitigated by the implementation of the follow-up

GFDRR grant that will assist the SHS in developing weather-forecasting services targeted

to public and commercial clients and aims at building the institutional capacity in line with

the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Strategy for Service Delivery. The

demand for SHS services will be further increased through engagements such as the WB-

funded Climate Adaptation Project (P155968) or EIB Flood Protection Project and

24

Dniester Basin Adaptation Plan (OSCE7 and UNECE8 supported). Additionally, SHS is

part of regional initiatives that are likely to further improve SHS service delivery,

specifically the South East Europe Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System (SEE-

MHEWS-A) and inclusion of Moldova as a priority country under the Global Framework

for Climate Services.

5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance

5.1 Bank Performance

(a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry

Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

The Bank helped identify an area of support that is of critical importance for Moldova’s

ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate risks, particularly for a country where

half the population resides in rural areas and relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. The

project design was balanced and targeted critical interventions that addressed priority

technical capability and capacity gaps in responding and mitigating weather-related risks

in three Moldovan institutions. The results framework was compact and captured the key

outputs and outcomes well. The employment of a PMT to coordinate implementation and

manage fiduciary aspects across the three implementing agencies proved a useful and

valuable arrangement to keep the project on track. The Bank team could have paid more

attention to the existing institutional weakness at the SHS. More upfront design elements

focused on capacity building and institutional strengthening could have potentially helped

prevent the implementation delays down the road and served as a useful reference point to

the frequently changed SHS managers. The team could have checked its assumptions about

the availability of mobile operators’ capacity to send multiple simultaneous messages and

the suitability of the off-the-shelf software for the ECC.

(b) Quality of Supervision

Rating: Satisfactory

The Bank was involved and pro-active in the supervision of all the aspects of the project

through regular semi-annual supervision missions involving the full team, and importantly,

through day-to-day dialogue conducted from the country office. The Bank team diligently

reported implementation challenges in the AMs, management letters and/or ISRs and tried

to address the issues expeditiously. e.g. to address implementation challenges at SHS, the

Bank financed an organizational and legal review of the SHS that prepared the ground for

changing its status in the public sector by allowing to increase staff remuneration and be

7 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 8 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

25

able to keep qualified staff. In the midst of numerous reshuffles during the project life, the

Bank engaged pro-actively with the counterpart to bring the incoming officials on board

with the project objective, implementation status and challenges. It must however be

recognized that modernization of hydrometeorological services is a highly technical and

complex niche for which the Bank team struggled to deliver sufficient internal capacity.

This improved throughout the project lifetime by leveraging the development of a

Bank/GFDRR service team on the topic. The Bank team regularly reviewed the safeguard

and fiduciary arrangements for compliance. Recognizing the risk to the sustainability of

the development outcome, particularly for the first component, the Bank team secured a

post-implementation grant to strengthen the service provision side of the SHS.

(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance

Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

The quality of the supervision was high as the Bank team responded in a timely and

adequate manner to implementation challenges. The quality at entry could have been better

through a more robust assessment of the capacity of mobile operators to send multiple

messages to farmers. The suitability of the off-the-shelf software for the ECC could have

been verified upfront. The World Bank’s support in project preparation and

implementation is rated as moderately satisfactory as per ICR guidelines that the overall

rating should be the lower of the two.

5.2 Borrower Performance

(a) Government Performance

Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

The Government of Moldova and all the implementing agencies strongly supported and

were actively involved in the preparation of the project. However, the project was affected

by the political turmoil of Moldova’s coalition governments and the resulting frequent

reshuffles, particularly at the Ministry of Environment and SHS. Those reshuffles were not

conducive to good implementation progress in Component A and resulted in lack of

oversight, management leadership and direction. At some point the SHS did not have a

General Director for about eight months and implementation was brought to a halt with a

build-up in procurement backlog of up to $2 million. After the mid-term review, the pace

picked up again and the project was completed on a revised schedule after a two-year

extension. Prioritization of hydrometeorological services by the Government, while

identified on paper, remains challenged in terms of actual budgeting and status of the SHS.

(b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance

Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

The project involved four implementing institutions: the SHS and the supervisory Ministry

of Environment; the Department of Exceptional Situations and the Ministry of Agriculture.

26

The DES was an exemplary implementing agency. After a relatively slow start related to

the inexperience of working with the Bank, mainly related to the development of complex

technical specifications, it got up to speed and provided the required management

leadership and involvement for a successful completion of Component B on time and on a

revised budget; it cooperated well with the PMT and the Steering Committee. The Ministry

of Agriculture was helpful and provided the support required for the implementation of

Component C through ACSA. The ministerial focal point participated actively in the

development of the grant selection criteria, were active members of the evaluation panels

and were heavily involved in dissemination events. The Ministry of Environment and the

SHS were the most affected institutions in terms of management stability and leadership.

This affected the speed and quality of implementation in Component A, but both

institutions made an effort, particularly after the mid-term review when faced with the

prospect of component cancellation, to accelerate implementation and managed to

complete the most important procurements within the revised project completion date. The

PMT held the entire project together and ensured fiduciary and safeguard compliance.

Staffed with people who had prior experience in WB-funded projects, they were

instrumental in monitoring progress and informing the Steering Committee and other

stakeholders of the emerging problems.

The Steering Committee was a useful overall coordination structure, but its ability to

induce corrective action was limited by the nature of the coalition Government in Moldova

where heads of institution were more accountable to their respective party leadership rather

than formal government arrangements.

(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance

Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

Overall borrower performance is rated as moderately satisfactory taking into account the

government‘s commitment in preparing the project, the good progress in two components

and the mobilization to complete the most essential procurements under the first

component of the project after the mid-term review.

6. Lessons Learned

It would be useful to integrate upfront into project design institutional management

capacity building activities, such as development of institutional strategic plans, as

well as operational and investment plans. These serve as useful guidance references

for these agencies, particularly in volatile political environments of coalition

governments where frequent reshuffles can be expected. Such plans, grounded in

thorough contextual analysis, help provide institutional stability and continuity.

This was confirmed by the feedback provided by the current SHS management.

27

Similarly, investments to strengthen/modernize hydrometeorological services

should upfront assess if the involved agency(ies) have modern forecast/service

production processes and standard operating procedures in place. If not, the project

should first support development of such procedures such that subsequent

procurements and capacity building investments are nested within and support a

service producing process. The “bigger picture” must always be kept in mind; such

processes and procurements must ultimately be part of a service-oriented plan to

respond to hydrometeorological information needs. It should be recognized that a

single 5-6 year project will generally not be able to elevate a severely resource-

challenged National Hydrometeorological Service to capacity levels seen in high

income countries.

Technical support provided through Bank-executed TA resources (or other similar

instruments) may be required on a continuous basis to assist implementation by

National Hydrometeorological Services, which may be inexperienced with

implementing large-scale modernization processes and developing complex

technical specifications. Such TA is also helpful in bringing staff up to speed in

operating the new equipment and related software beyond the training provided by

suppliers. Overall, such Bank TA is likely to significantly enhance the likelihood

of achieving project outcomes and their sustainability.

The use of PPF funds and potentially complementary Bank-executed TA resources

for the preparation of feasibility studies before project implementation starts could

inform projects better and save valuable implementation time.

The use of project management teams for fiduciary and compliance purposes as

well as for overall coordination is an extremely practical and valuable arrangement,

particularly when the project involves several implementing agencies. However, it

would be better to involve such units early in project preparation so that: a) the

PMTs have an organically developed understanding of the project; b) other

implementing agencies quickly gain a clear understanding of the PMT’s role in

implementation; c) enable early detection of potential misconceptions about roles

and responsibilities of PMTs verses implementing agencies, thereby allowing

corrective action before the project begins implementation.

The ability of overall project coordination structures, such as Steering Committees,

may have a limited power to induce corrective action in implementing agencies

under coalition Governments, particularly if the heads of such supervisory and

implementing institutions do not share the same party affiliation. To mitigate such

risks, it is useful to map actual accountability lines (rather than formal ones) and

resort more pro-actively to those informal influencers to effect corrective action

and avoid implementation delays that jeopardize project outcomes.

Early and continuous engagement with the Ministry of Finance is required to ensure

that sufficient budget is allocated for the maintenance and operation of the acquired

equipment, or at least that the issue is constantly highlighted. In Moldova, the DES

28

management pursued those discussions more vigorously and secured the required

budget for the ECC while the combination of existing low visibility/marginalization

of the institution and continuous management changes at SHS prevented them from

ensuring the required budget is allocated immediately in the post-project phase.

7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners

(a) Borrower/implementing agencies

29

(b) Cofinanciers

Not applicable

(c) Other partners and stakeholders

A number of other development partners have been involved in providing complementary

technical assistance and support to the SHS during the life-time of the project.

UNDP and the Austrian Development Agency through the UNDP-supported

project ‘Supporting Moldova’s National Climate Change Adaptation Planning

Process’ supported the partnership between the Austrian Central Institute for

Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) and SHS to share best practices on

forecasting and early warning, and explore ways to leverage their partnership’s

strength to benefit communities prone to climate -related disasters. One outcome of

this partnership was SHS becoming a member of the MeteoAlarm, an initiative by

EUMETNET, the Network of European Meteorological Services, active in 35

countries in Europe and strongly supported by the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO).

The Czech Development Agency supported the establishment of 11 automated

hydrological posts on the river Prut.

MCC supported the establishment of further 8 automated hydrological posts on the

Nistru and its tributaries.

The EIB supported the Moldova Flood Protection Project with the objective of

developing a flood protection master plan and an associated investment plan along

with the SHS capacity building in flood management, including in hydraulic

modelling.

30

Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing

(a) Project Cost by Component (in USD Million equivalent)

Component Appraisal

Estimate

(USD

millions)

Cost with

Additional

Financing

(USD

millions)

Actual

Latest

Estimate

Percentage

of

Appraisal

(including

AF)

Strengthen Severe Weather

Forecasting

4.36 4.90 5,18

1.18

Improve Disaster

Preparedness and

Emergency Response

2.45 4.44 4,32

1.76

Initiate Activities for

Adaptation to Climate

Risks in Agriculture

1.83 1.96 1,99 1.08

Project Management 0.45 0.7 0.77 1.71

Total Baseline Costs 9.09 12 12.26 1.34

Physical Contingencies 0.45 0 0 0

Price Contingencies 0.45 0 0 0

Total Project Cost 10 12 12.26 1.22

Project Preparation

Facility (PPF)

0 0

Frond-end Fee 0 0

Total Financing

Required

10 12

Note: the actual latest $ estimate is higher due to the favorable USD to XDR exchange rate

(b) Financing

Source Appraisal

Estimate

(USD

millions)

Cost with

Additional

Financing

(USD

millions)

Actual

Latest

Estimate

Percentage

of

Appraisal

Borrower 0 0

IDA 10 12

TOTAL 10 12

31

Annex 2. Outputs by Component

Component A: Strengthen Severe Weather Forecasting

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Sub-Component A.1 – Develop Early Warning/Nowcasting

Capabilities

50,000

101,459

Architectural design of 4

houses for meteorological

stations and one hydrologic

station

The project supported the

preparation of the

construction design for the

construction/reconstruction

of five meteorological

stations. Completed

479,500 768,119 Construction of 4 houses for

meteorological stations

The project supported the

construction of four meteo

stations. The construction of

the fifth one was dropped at

the suggestion of the new

incoming SHS director.

Completed.

13,000

34,050

Supervision of technical

designs’ development and

construction of

hydrometeorological stations

for the State

Hydrometeorological Service

The project supported the

associated engineering

supervision of the

construction. Completed.

100,000 94,801

Construction Works for

Hydrologic gauges on the

Nistru

The project supported the

construction works required

for the installation of

hydrologic gauges on the

Nistru. Completed

15,000 24,656

Refurbishing of calibration

laboratory

The project supported the

renovation of the premises

required for the installation

of the laboratory to calibrate

the equipment purchased

under the project.

Completed

20,000

19,500 Architectural design and

construction works

supervision of Weather

Stations System (AWSs)

infrastructure for State

Hydrometeorological Service

The project supported the

design and supervision

services for the construction

works required to install the

weather station systems.

Completed.

90,000 114,513

Construction Works for

Weather Stations System

(AWSs) infrastructure for the

The project supported the

construction of the

infrastructure required for

32

State Hydrometeorological

Service

the installation of the

automated weather station

systems. Completed.

33,000 29,068

Constructions works, and

installation of equipment

room for server room of

Forecasting National Center

under SHS

The project supported the

renovation of the premises

required for the server room

at the SHS. Completed.

186,200

1,291,833

Procurement of Automatic

Weather Stations System

(AWSs) for State

Hydrometeorological Service

The project supported the

procurement of 32

automated weather post

systems located outside the

four stations and distributed

throughout the country for

the collection of automated

weather information.

Completed.

46,200

32,962

4WD vehicle The project supported the

procurement of the 4WD

vehicle for the SHS.

Completed.

330,000

116,132

Hydrologic gauges on Nistru-

7 tributaries

The project supported the

procurement of six

hydrologic automatic

sensing gauges for

improved management of

water resources. Completed.

73,000

75,967

Procurement of an aluminum

boat and equipment for lake

hydrological station

The project supported the

acquisition of a boat and

hydrological equipment for

collecting water data on the

system of lakes and ponds.

Completed.

165,000

161,316

Procurement of calibration

laboratory for

hydrometeorology

The project supported the

procurement of a laboratory

to calibrate the measuring

equipment acquired with

project funds. Completed.

10,000

5,177

Furniture for calibration

laboratory

The project procured the

office furniture for the

laboratory. Completed.

25,000

20,629

Procurement of furniture for

the new SHS buildings

The project supported the

acquisition of office

furniture for the SHS

premises. Completed.

33

3,100

2,575

Procurement of 2 Pressure

Water Level Meter Sensor

and Training on general

operation and maintenance for

State Hydrometeorological

Service (SHS)

The project supported the

acquisition of water level

sensors and training on their

utilization. Completed.

550,000

408,239

Procurement of Information

System

Visualization, processing,

editing and automatic

production of data for the

forecasting process

for the State

Hydrometeorological Service

of the Republic of Moldova

The project supported the

acquisition of software to

process, visualize the data

produced by various

weather measuring devices

procured under the project.

Completed.

2,000

1,689

Procurement of SIM cards

and routers for AWS&AWSs

SHS

The project supported the

procurement of SIM cards

and routers to transmit data

from the automatic weather

stations to the SHS.

Completed

5,000

1,638

Accreditation of calibration

laboratory

The project supported the

preparation of the

documentation required for

the accreditation of the

calibration laboratory.

However, the process of

accreditation was not

finalized.

66,000 0 Discharge measurement

devices

Although the procurement

was completed, it was

cancelled because the SHS

did not favor the winning

bidder

247,500 0 Developing of flash flood

forecasting system IT product

Cancelled at mid-term in

order to focus on the meteo

forecasting part of the

project

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Sub-Component A.2 – Dual Polarization Doppler Radar

Technology for Localized Forecasts

2,110,000

1,125,635

Weather radar system The project supported the

procurement of a dual

polarization Doppler

radar. Completed.

34

20,000

52,039

Architectural design of tower

and tower foundation for

weather radar system

The project supported the

acquisition of design

services for the radar

tower. Completed.

200,000 238,214

Construction of tower for

weather radar system

The project supported the

construction of the tower

for the installation of the

radar. Completed

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Sub-Component A.3 – Development of Plans for

Seasonal/Climate Forecasts

192,400

297,997

Soil moisture probes The project supported the

acquisition of probes to

measure soil moisture

used in case of droughts.

59,000

56,515 Met center computers The project supported the

acquisition of computers

to process the results of

the soil moisture probes.

Completed.

16,500

29,760

Agromet data processing and

visualization software

The project supported the

acquisition of the software

to process the information

of the soil moisture

probes. Completed.

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Sub-Component B.3 – Capacity Building and Evaluation

77,000

10,370

Trainings & Workshops for IT users The project supported

the training of at least

90 relevant staff in

the use of the ECC

communications and

IT systems.

Completed.

Component C: Initiate Activities for Adaptation to Climate Risks in Agriculture

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Sub-Component C.1 – Development of a Just-in-Time

(JIT) Communication Platform

100,000

184,028

Design of the architecture and the

test-mode operationalization of the

communication platform & IT

The project

supported the

development of the

just-in-time

35

hardware for a mobile JIT

communication platform

communication

platform that was

designed to provide

early weather

warnings to farmers.

Completed.

11,050 12,267.15

Trainings & Workshops for MAFI

Staff

The project provided

trainings, workshops

and study tours

workshops for the

Ministry of

Agriculture on

climate-change

topics related to

agriculture.

Completed.

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Sub-Component C.2 – Adverse Weather Adaptation

Advisory Services

1,757,700

1,760,055

Piloting activities for increasing the

resilience of the agricultural sector to

adverse weather including Grants

Program and results dissemination

The project provided

investment grants for

piloting climate-

resilient techniques

on selected

demonstration plots

25,000 15,190

Project Assignment Coordinator

(Comp. C)

The project provided

funds for a

component

coordinator

Estimated

$USD

Actual

$USD

Component D: Project Management

450,000 770,000 Project Management Team,

including M&E and financial audits

The project provided

funds for the overall

coordination effort

carried out by the

Project Management

Team

36

Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis

The original appraisal used conservative assumptions to estimate potential project

performance resulting in an economic rate of return (ERR) of 25 percent, net present value

(NPV) of US$10.3 million, and a benefit-cost (B/C) ratio of 2.0. Subsequent assessment to

prepare the Additional Financing indicated that the addition of US$2.0 million to the costs

would not prevent the project from achieving the originally estimated ERR and B/C ratio,

due to the introduction into the analysis of the mitigated damages (project benefit) for the

catastrophic drought of 2012.

A more detailed and more conservative approach was applied for the post-project economic

performance assessment. The official loss data from Civil Protection and Emergency

Situation Service (CPESS) forthe1997-2016 period was reviewed, and due to 1997-2000

being excessively high relative to GDP (therefore considered outliers), these years were

omitted from the analysis. The resultant average annual disaster loss pre-project (2001-

2010) was 1.35% of GDP, which is lower than the figure used during appraisal (1.76%,

computed from the international disasters database EM-DAT 9 ). While CPESS has

indicated challenges in its collection and computation methodology, this local loss data is

still considered more robust than that of EM-DAT.

During project implementation (2011-2016), the average annual loss was 0.71% of GDP.

A significant caveat of this analysis is that this change in average annual loss (from 1.35%

to 0.71% of GDP) cannot unequivocally be attributed to the project. It could be that the

project years simply experienced lower hydrometeorological hazard frequencies and

magnitudes, and there may have been other national gains in resilience through for example

infrastructure reinforcement. The original appraisal assumed that 25% of preventable

disaster losses could be prevented by the project. Globally, assumptions on the economic

loss reducing potential of early warning ranges from 5%-20%. To adhere to a conservative

approach, a lower value of 10% was applied during this post-project analysis, also since

the project focused primarily on early warning and less so on the early action needed to

realize the full benefits.

Cost-benefit analysis was performed for the project period plus 15 years thereafter (2011-

2031), aligned with the lifespan assumption used during preparation. Project disbursement

costs (capital costs) were augmented with operations and maintenance costs assumed to be

15% of total capital costs (the average of the “rule of thumb” used for hydrometeorological

services), increasing based on past disbursements during the project period, and then

remaining stable during the 15-year lifespan. Benefits were as mentioned assumed to be

10% of reduced losses; for past years CPESS loss data was used, for future years avoided

loss was estimated based on % of GDP loss reduced between the pre-project and project

9 EM-DAT is a global database on natural and technological disasters, containing essential core data on the

occurrence and effects of more than 21,000 disasters in the world, from 1900 to present. EM-DAT is

maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the School of Public

Health of the Université Catholique de Louvain located in Brussels, Belgium.

37

years (2001-2010 verses 2011-2016), and utilizing conservative GDP projections (IIASA10

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways “fragmentation” scenario, SSP3). It was further assumed

that no benefits accrued during 2011-2014 as most investments were not yet operational,

50% of potential benefits accrued during 2015, and 100% during 2016-2031. Unlike the

economic assessment for the Additional Financing, this therefore omitted any potential

benefits accrued during the catastrophic drought of 2012.

The analysis was performed across a range of discount rates and also under an even more

conservative assumption that the project is able to deliver only 5% of reduced loss, as

opposed to 10%. The results are summarized in the Table below.

PAD Post-project

% of reduced loss 25% 10% 5%

Discount rate 12% 12% 5% 1% 12% 5% 1%

NPV (US$ millions) $10.3 $42.8 $85.0 $126.2 $4.7 $24.1 $42.3

B/C ratio 2.0 2.3 3.3 4.0 1.1 1.7 2.0

ERR 25% 28% 14%

The results indicate that the project with Additional Financing performed on par with or

even better than expected in economic terms. Even with the most conservative assumptions,

the project is delivering more benefits than costs at a rate of return greater than the assumed

opportunity cost of capital (discount rate). When the relatively high assumption of 25% of

reduced losses being attributable to the project and relatively low assumption of O&M

costs being 6% of capital costs is applied (as used during the preparation analysis),

performance improves to a B/C ratio of 8.3 and ERR of 54%.

10 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

38

Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes

(a) Task Team members

Names Title Unit

Lending

Curtis B. Barrett HQ Consultant ST GSU09

Arcadii Capcelea Senior Environmental Specialist GEN03

Elena Corman Procurement Specialist GGO03

Oxana Druta Financial Management Specialist GGO21

Erick C.M. Fernandes Adviser GFA04

Anatol Gobjila Senior Agriculture Economist GFA03

Delphine Alberta Hamilton Senior Program Assistant GSU09

Jolanta Kryspin-Watson Lead Disaster Risk Management GSU08

Salman Anees Soz Consultant MNCIQ

Supervision/ICR

Daniel Kull Senior Disaster Risk Management

Specialist GSU09

Alexei Ionascu Consultant

(b) Staff Time and Cost

Stage of Project Cycle

Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only)

No. of staff weeks USD Thousands (including

travel and consultant costs)

Lending

Total: 41.16 181.66

Supervision/ICR

Total: 114.01 522.14

39

Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results

No beneficiary survey was envisaged under the project at project design. The fact that no

beneficiary survey was added when additional financing was considered for the project is

a missed opportunity as it was a corporate requirement by that time.

40

Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results

Not applicable

41

Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR

This Annex includes: (a) An extract from the ‘Republic of Moldova, Disaster and Climate

Risk Management Project’ containing the GoM’s conclusions regarding the achievement

of project objectives, and (b) Government of Moldova comments on the draft ICR

(forthcoming).

(a) Government of Moldova Conclusions on the Achievement of Project Objectives

As a whole, the Project Development Objective has been achieved. The SHS’s capabilities

to forecast severe weather has been strengthen and Moldova’s capacity to prepare for and

respond to natural disasters has been improved.

After completion of the project SHS has substantially improved technical capacities to

monitor weather and issue early warnings of weather-related hazards and to provide timely

and accurate hydrometeorological forecasts and services compared with the period up to

the project.

The Emergency Command Center is functional and is equipped with the most advanced

specialized equipment and staff is well trained. Thereby substantially increased the

CPESS’s and Government capabilities to manage and coordinate responses to natural and

man-made disasters.

By operating the JIT communication platform, a large number of farmers and rural

communities receive operative alerts and localized weather information. Pilot projects on

adaptation to climate change supported the project demonstrated the effectiveness of

applied measures to mitigate agricultural losses and this experience was later taken and

multiple replicated by other farmers with their own resources.

However, the activities carried out under this project needs to be completed and continued

under the future possible projects.

In particular this relates to completion by the SHS of activities for putting into service of

the equipment purchased, reorganization of the service based on the new concept of

strategic development, human capacity building, including staff training in the operation

and maintenance of performance equipment and stopping the flow of qualified staff.

On the other hand, CPESS needs to continue its capacity building through creating and

equipping other two regional command centers in the north and south, as well as a regional

training center for exceptional situations. CPESS also needs to modernize much of the

equipment and technical means for intervention in emergencies.

In agriculture sector it is necessary to continue the activities of farmers’ adaptation to

climate change, particularly with reference to droughts and frosts, as well as restoring

pastures and degraded land.

(b) Government of Moldova Comments on the ICR

42

Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders

Comments on the project by ZAMG, the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology

and Geodynamics, a partner institution for the Moldovan State Hydrometeorological

Service

The Republic of Moldova’s economy, population and environment are highly vulnerable

to extreme weather events, climate variability and climate change. Impacts of severe

weather and climate change are expected to intensify in the next decades. Therefore, the

project aims at strengthening the State Hydrometeorological Service’s (SHS) ability to

forecast severe weather. In general, the outcomes improve Moldova’s capacity to prepare

for and respond to natural disasters.

Modern meteorological and hydrological observing systems provide real time observations.

They are essential for the monitoring of the actual weather situation. The provision of

accurate and timely early warnings of weather-related hazards with the required high

spatial resolution critically relies on the availability of these measurements. The

availability of observations from automatic weather stations and weather radar permit the

application of state of the art now-casting methods in the SHS forecast center. These

observations were not available at SHS in the past.

Thus a country wide network of automatic weather stations was established. A state of the

art Doppler weather radar with dual pol capabilities was installed on a tower at a suitable

location at Chisinau Airport. Meteorological radar allows the location of severe

thunderstorms, hail and gust fronts (strong winds). Data from the observational systems

are now collected, transferred and integrated in near real time to the meteorological

workstations of the forecasters at SHS. The meteorological workplace acquired in the

project provides the possibility for the proper visualization of the observations and serves

as a tool for the generation of forecasts and severe weather warnings. In addition, the results

of global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and satellite images are made

available for forecasters. A software for the production and dissemination of warnings and

forecasts was installed at SHS and supplements the meteorological workplace.

With the activities carried out in the project elements of a state of the art forecast/warnings

production chain have been implemented at SHS. The expected timely dissemination of

the warnings to users, customers and the general public results in enhanced lead time.

Operational Now Casting systems, connecting radar, satellite, automatic weather stations

are at the moment not existing or operational. Observation of the water levels are required

for the monitoring of the major rivers and flood warnings. The project contributes also to

the improvement of the hydrological network. On the other hand, a connection to a model

for hydro-forecasts is not installed at SHS.

The project took the importance of training and capacity building into account and a certain

amount of training have been provided, some elements like impact based forecast

generation are still missing. Investments in infrastructure were supplemented by training

activities for the SHS staff. Other missing infrastructure elements are data platforms and

structured IT driven data flows.

43

The project strengthened the cooperation and coordination with civil protection agency.

The intensified cooperation is essential for the transition from pure weather warnings to

impact orientated warnings, which will be the major challenge for SHSM weather

forecasters in the next years.

Low salaries at SHS will pose a continuous challenge to maintain well trained personal,

fluctuation of the best trained people has been high.

It is expected that droughts become more frequent in the next decades due to climate

change. Soil moisture probes and IT infrastructure (hard and software) for the analysis of

the samples were acquired. Soil moisture is a relevant parameter for drought monitoring.

The achieved project goals complement and support in an ideal manner the ongoing

cooperation between SHS and ZAMG. ZAMG supports the membership of SHS to

EUMETNET (European Meteorological Services Network). The membership allows the

integration of the observational systems purchased in the project to the European

meteorological infrastructure. SHS participates to the EUMETNET programs

MeteoAlarm/EMMA (www.meteoalarm.eu) and OPERA (European weather radar

network).

44

Annex 9 - Comparison of Indicators in PAD Section A and the Supplemental Letter

PAD Section A Supplemental Letter

1 More specific forecasting of

weather conditions

1 More specific forecasting of

weather conditions

2 Expanded lead time of weather

warnings to users, particularly DES

2 Expanded lead time of weather

warnings to users, particularly DES

3 Strengthened capacity to

coordinate response to emergencies

3 Strengthened capacity to coordinate

response to emergencies

4 Installation of Doppler radar which

improves weather monitoring and

forecasting

4 Installation of Doppler radar which

improves weather monitoring and

forecasting

5 Now-casting tools, data collection

and dissemination improved

5 Now-casting tools, data collection

and dissemination improved

6 The ECC is established, tested and

operational

6 The ECC is established, tested and

operational

7 ECC users are trained to operate

the emergency management system

7 ECC users are trained to operate the

emergency management system

8 At least 50 investment grants

provided and put on the

demonstration plots (farmers

receive information about practical

techniques for adaptation to

climate risks on pilot basis)

8 At least 50 investment grants

provided and put on the

demonstration plots (farmers

receive information about practical

techniques for adaptation to climate

risks on pilot basis)

9 Project supported organization(s)

publish reports on the effect of

collaboration with stakeholders

9 Project supported organization(s)

publish reports on the effect of

collaboration with stakeholders

45

Annex 10. List of Supporting Documents

Project Identification Document (November 15, 2009)

Integrated Safeguards Datasheet (June 15, 2010)

Project Appraisal Document (July 06, 2010, Report No: 53050-MD)

Financing Agreement (August 12, 2010)

Additional Financing Agreement (May 21, 2015)

Supplemental Letter no. 2 to the Additional Finance Agreement (May 21, 2015)

Project Paper on Additional Financing (April 28, 2015, Report No: PAD1183)

Country Partnership Strategy for FY 2009-2012 (Report No.-46822-MD)

Country Partnership Strategy for FY 2014-2017 (Report No. 79701-MD)

Aide-memoires (2010-2016)

Back-to-office reports and letters to Government (2010-2016)

Implementation Status and Results Reports (2010-2016)

Procurement Plans (2010-2016)

Project Procurement Post Reviews (2010-2016)

Project Financial Audits (2010-2016)

ACSA Final Report on Adverse Weather Adaptation Advisory Service, 2014

ACSA Final Report on Design, Management and Operation of the Alert Through

Mobile Service, 2013

Project and Background papers:

Project Operational Manual (October 28, 2010)

South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Program”; World

Bank; UN ISDR; March 2008

“Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies

of South Eastern Europe”; World Bank; UN ISDR; March 2008

“South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Initiative – Risk

Assessment for South Eastern Europe”; World Bank; UN ISDR; March 2008

“Strengthening the Hydrometeorological Services in South Eastern Europe”;

World Bank; UN ISDR; World Meteorological Organization; Finnish

Meteorological Institute; August 2008