World Agricultural Production Report

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign

Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 2-18 February 2018

Brazil Soybeans: Another Bumper Crop in the Making

Brazil soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at 112 million metric tons (mmt), up 2 mmt or 2 percent from last month but still down 2 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at a record 35 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.20 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month, but down 5 percent from last year’s record. Planting was delayed in many areas due to sub-optimal moisture conditions early in the season. Once moisture conditions improved planting progressed at a rapid pace and the crop has developed well. In most major crop areas, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates vegetation health is near-to-above last year which produced above-average to record yields.

World Agricultural Production

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The exception is southern Rio Grande do Sul (2 percent of Brazil soybean production), where crop growth is delayed and NDVI is below last year. This region experienced drier than normal conditions in November and much of December but has seen some recovery due to January rains. Overall, however, with the majority of Brazil’s soybean crop in very good condition and with increased yield potential, prospects are high for

another bumper soybean crop. The crop is harvested from January to June. According to government and trade sources, about 5 percent of Brazil’s soybean crop has been harvested; in Mato Grosso 20 percent of the crop has been harvested, behind last year’s pace, but near the 5-year average despite wet weather in January that delayed the start of the soybean harvest. (For more information, please contact [email protected]). Argentina Soybeans: More Rain Needed to Finish the Season Argentina soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at 54.0 million metric tons, 4 percent below last month and 7 percent below last year. Area is estimated at 18.5 million hectares, down 1 percent from last month but still up 1 percent from 2016/17. Yields are expected to be good, despite the dryness. Forecast yields are averaging around 2.92 tons per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last year. Dry soils delayed planting of second-crop soybeans and late-sown first crop soybeans

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA February 2018Office of Global Analysis

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until rainfall arrived in late January. (For information, please contact [email protected].) India Soybeans: Dry Conditions Negatively Impact Yields

USDA estimates India soybean production for 2017/18 at 9.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 5 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 10.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down nearly 8 percent from last year. The year-to-year decrease is due to farmers switching to cotton and pulses. Yield is estimated at 0.90 tons per hectare, down about 5 percent from last month but 4 percent above the 5-year average. Dry conditions during planting negatively impacted vegetative growth and pod development. During field travel in mid-September, USDA/FAS personnel observed smaller-than-average seed size in Maharashtra, a major soybean area. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

Ukraine Sunseed: USDA Analysis Supports Current Production Estimate

USDA estimates Ukraine 2017/18 sunseed production at 13.0 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month but down 2.2 mmt from last year’s record. Estimated area and yield are also unchanged, at 6.4 million hectares and 2.03 metric tons per hectare. The estimates are based in part on preliminary harvest data released by the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSS), which cites net sunseed output at 12.2 mmt. The USDA number also includes estimated output not reflected in the SSS number, as well as reported output from Crimea. Analysis of sunseed-oil export data and other reliable data indicates official sunseed production numbers have underestimated actual output over the past twelve years, sometimes by as much as 16 percent. Private commodity


mailto:[email protected]

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analysts attribute the discrepancy largely to inaccurate data provided to the SSS by sunseed producers, who routinely under-report actual area and production in an effort to appear compliant with official sanctions against the too-frequent planting of sunflowers. Specialists recommend that sunflowers not be planted in the same field more than once every five to seven years in order to reduce the occurrence of soil-borne fungal diseases. Due to the consistently high profitability of sunseed, however, many farmers are inclined to “push the rotation” and plant sunflowers more frequently than recommended. (For

more information, please contact [email protected].)

Malaysia Palm Oil: Record Production Estimated Malaysia’s 2017/18 palm oil production is estimated at a record 20.5 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month but up 9 percent from last year. Mature oil palm area is estimated at a record 5.2 million hectares (mha), up 0.3 mha or 6 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.94 tons per hectare, which is up 2 percent from last year. Palm oil yields and production are expected to recover this season as a more favorable rainfall pattern is expected to prevail in all major producing areas. The 2017/18 marketing year began in October 2017 and runs through September 2018. Cumulative monthly palm oil production from October through December

2017 totaled about 1.0 mmt above last year, providing early evidence of a strong recovery.



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February is typically the month with the lowest output. The rate of new oil palm plantings has also reportedly increased following three years of government subsidies targeting old growth areas managed by smallholders. New acreage has also reportedly been coming into production with the conversion of old rubber plantations in peninsular Malaysia. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Argentina Corn: Pockets of Heat and Dryness Reduce Estimated Yield

Argentina corn production for 2017/18 is forecast at 39.0 million metric tons, down 7 percent from last month and 5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 5.2 million hectares, the same as last month and 6 percent higher than last season. The yield forecast of 7.50 tons per hectare is 7 percent below last month’s yield and 10 percent lower than last year. Argentina’s corn crop has a wide planting window, and both early and late-planted crops have been affected by heat and dryness as crops approach reproductive stage. Localized rains at the end of January helped late-corn seeding, resulting in mixed conditions across regions. (For information, please contact [email protected].) Mexico Corn: Favorable Rainfall Boosts Yield USDA estimates Mexico 2017/18 corn production at 26.5 million metric tons, up 1 percent from last month, but still down 4 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 7.23 million hectares (mha), slightly down from last month and down 4 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.67 tons per hectare up 1 percent from last month matching last year’s record. After excessive rainfall delayed the start of planting for the spring/summer main corn season in some major producing areas, a short-lived dry spell in June followed by a return to normal




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rainfall allowed growth and development to progress favorably. Moreover, reports of timely rain in the silking stage– the most critical growth period where the water requirement is at its peak – boosted yield potential. Yield potential for the spring/summer corn season, depends on seasonal rainfall as the crop is predominantly rainfed.

The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index indicated average to above-average conditions in Mexico’s main producing corn areas, similar to that of last year. Harvest for the spring/summer crop season is complete. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Brazil Cotton: Production Estimated Up on Higher Area

Cotton production for 2017/18 is estimated at 8.0 million 480-pound bales, up 0.2 million bales or 3 percent from last month, and up 1.0 million bales or 14 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month, and up 180 thousand hectares or 19 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1,555 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month but still down 4 percent from last year’s record.



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Cotton is planted from November to February in the principal cotton-growing southeast and central states and in Bahia. In other northeastern cotton-growing areas, planting continues until May. Planted area is up as producers are encouraged by higher prices and by last year’s record yield. Cotton area increased for the third consecutive year in Mato Grosso (62 percent of Brazil’s cotton production). Most of Mato Grosso’s cotton is planted as a second crop after soybeans. Planting is ongoing but behind schedule due to delays in the soybean harvest in areas where wet conditions in January hampered fieldwork. In Bahia (25 percent of Brazil’s cotton production), area is rebounding after three consecutive years of decline when producers were discouraged by low prices and reduced output from adverse weather. Planting in Bahia is expected to conclude by mid-February. The majority of the cotton crop will be harvested from June to August. (For more information, please contact [email protected]).

India Cotton: Pink Bollworm Impacts Yields

USDA estimates 2017/18 India cotton production at 28.5 million 480-pound bales, down nearly 3 percent from last month but still up 6 percent from 2016/17. Harvested area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 13 percent from last year. The year-to-year increase in area was due to farmers’ optimism over a generally favorable monsoon and more favorable returns than oilseeds and pulses. Yield is estimated at 504 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from the 5-year average and down 7 percent from 2016/17, which was a record yield.

Despite near-record harvested area, production is estimated to decrease. Inconsistent rainfall and pests have been reported throughout central cotton producing areas of Maharashtra and the southern cotton areas of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka. Trade sources have estimated 40 percent of the Maharashtra crop has been impacted by pink bollworm. In Telangana, a high incidence of pink bollworm and aphids for the first picking was reported. In Gujarat, however, which produces 30 percent of India’s total output, no incidence of pest infestation has been reported. Pink bollworm consumes the cotton fiber and seeds inside the boll or fruit and usually leaves the vegetation unharmed. There are a number of reasons for the high infestation including resistance of bollworm to BT toxins, use of unapproved seeds and poor integrated pest management.

Cotton is grown only in the kharif season. Harvest begins in October in northern India and typically continues until January in the rest of the country. India’s main cotton regions (north, central, and south) have all reported increases in harvested area relative to last year. The northern area has reported an increase of 30 percent, whereas the southern area is expected to increase planted area by 2 percent above last year. The major cotton area in central India – including


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Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh – are up nearly 10 percent from 2016. Private trade sources have estimated that 34 percent of the total estimated crop has been brought to the market as of mid-January. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Reduced Slightly The 2017/18 Australia cotton crop is forecast by USDA at 4.4 million 480-pound bales (958,000 metric tons), down 0.2 million bales from last month but still up 0.35 million or 9 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 0.435 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last month, and down 25 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2,202 kilograms per hectare, 12 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is expected to increase from last year because of a forecast decrease in the share of the area sown to lower-yielding dryland cotton.

Irrigated cotton yields are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low-rainfall years. On average about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton production comes from irrigated areas. Dryland planting tends to vary with the seasonal weather forecast and prices at sowing. Dryland cotton area is forecast to decrease, reflecting area lost due to a very hot and dry January. The notable factors this season are the increase in cotton area in southern New South Wales and a smaller overall dryland crop. Sorghum and cotton are the two

dominant summer crops in eastern Australia. Cotton sowing commences in October and harvest begins in April. (For more information, please contact [email protected]).



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China Cotton: Production Up 21 Percent From Last Year Due to Record Yields China cotton is expected to be especially plentiful in the 2017/18 marketing year, as record yields and high acreage are on track to produce the largest cotton harvest in three years. USDA estimates the production at 27.5 million 480-pound bales (5.99 million metric tons), up 4 percent from last month and up 21 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares (mha), up 17 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 1,761 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) up 1 percent from last month and up 3 percent from the previous record of 1,708 kg/ha in 2016/17. Cotton harvest progressed well and is complete across Xinjiang province and in the eastern provinces of Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu. According to the China Cotton Association, by the end of December farmers had sold over 80 percent of the crop. In December and February, the China Fibre Inspection Bureau reported that Xinjiang cotton inspection data was well over 22 percent higher than the same time last year. The pace of inspection data continues to indicate higher-than-expected production.

Overall, the 2017/18 season was characterized by favorable weather across the major cotton growing regions. The satellite derived NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data were significantly above average throughout the season across the major cotton growing regions including Aksu prefecture in Xinjiang province. In 2017/18, China cotton area increased approximately 17 percent year to year due to higher cotton prices in 2016/17. The area increased the most in Xinjiang and Hebei provinces. According to the National Cotton Monitoring Network, Xinjiang province planted over 2 mha increasing its cotton production to roughly 78 percent of the national total. This year’s area increase marks a change from the recent trend. For the past five consecutive seasons, cotton harvested area declined across all cotton regions as farmers responded to changes in agricultural policy. In 2014, the government announced and enacted policies regarding the removal of cotton support or direct subsidies to farmers in an effort to deal with high stockpiles of cotton. (For more information, please contact [email protected]).


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Argentina Wheat: Harvest Complete USDA estimates Argentina wheat production for 2017/18 at 18 million metric tons, up 3 percent from last month, but still down 2 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 5.6 million hectares, the same as last month and up less than 1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at

3.21 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month but still down 3 percent from last year. Adequate subsoil moisture, particularly in northern Buenos Aires, La Pampa, southern Santa Fe, and southern Cordoba, benefited yields. (For information, please contact [email protected]). Ukraine Wheat: Another Bumper Crop

Ukraine wheat production for 2017/18 is estimated by USDA at 27.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.5 mmt from last month and up 0.2 mmt from last year. The increased estimate is based on preliminary harvest data from the State Statistical Service of Ukraine, which includes output from Crimea. Yield is estimated at 4.06 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), up 1 percent from last month and second only to last year’s record 4.15 t/ha. The four highest yields of the past 25 years have all occurred within the past four years. Although the past three years in particular have been marked by exceptionally favorable weather for wheat, the steady increase in yield over the past 15 years reflects a steady improvement in agricultural technology, including more efficient harvesting machinery. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)



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World Agricultural Production U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division (IPAD)

Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051

http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ Telephone: (202) 720-1662 Fax: (202) 720-1158

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-574), February 8, 2018. Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068. The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, March 8, 2018.

Conversion Table

Metric tons to bushels

Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825 Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats = MT * 68.894438

Metric tons to 480-lb bales

Cotton = MT * 4.592917

Metric tons to hundredweight

Rice = MT * 22.04622

Area & weight

1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds


http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/

For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division

Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051

Telephone: (202) 720-1662 Fax: (202) 720-1158

GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz 202-720-4056 [email protected] Deputy Director Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] Administrative Assistant Shelisa Johnson 202-720-1662 [email protected] USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, Ph.D. 202-690-0134 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/ Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, Ph.D. 202-720-7339 [email protected] Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina, Venezuela, Denise McWilliams, Ph.D.202-720-0107 [email protected] and Colombia Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] South Asia, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] Bangladesh, India, and Nepal East Asia, China, and Japan Dath Mita, Ph.D. 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, Ph.D. 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected] Cambodia and Vietnam Central America, Mexico, Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] and Western United States Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Central Asia, Afghanistan Bill Baker, Ph.D. 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iraq, Iran, and Syria Canada, Caribbean, Katie McGaughey 202-720-9210 [email protected] Eastern United States Brazil Maria Anulacion 202-720-6878 [email protected]




The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases:

Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

EU Countries Area & Production Estimates http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Export Sales Report: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Million Metric Tons

Table 01 World Crop Production Summary

World

-

Total

Foreign

North

America

North

America

North

America

Former

Soviet

Former

Soviet

Europea

n

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

South

America

South

America

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

All

Others

none

-

none

-

United

States

Mexico

-

Canada

-

Russia

-

Ukraine

-

none

-

China

-

India

-

Indo-

nesia

Paki-

stan

Thai-

land

Argen-

tina

Brazil

-

South

Africa

Turkey

-

none

-

Aus-

tralia

Commodity

---Million metric tons---

Wheat

2015/16 257.719.51.422.35.511.30.025.10.086.5130.2nr27.361.03.727.656.1679.2735.3

2016/17 prel. 236.617.31.930.46.718.40.025.60.087.0128.8nr26.872.53.931.762.8687.6750.4

2017/18 proj.

Jan 244.021.01.521.54.317.50.026.50.098.4130.0nr26.585.03.630.047.4709.6757.0

Feb 244.321.01.521.54.318.00.026.50.098.4130.0nr27.085.03.530.047.4710.9758.2

Coarse Grains

2015/16 330.814.28.712.568.638.44.85.710.538.7231.4nr33.437.432.425.6367.0893.31,260.3

2016/17 prel. 334.710.918.016.6101.648.65.36.510.943.9227.4nr39.240.833.325.8402.6963.41,366.0

2017/18 proj.

Jan 331.813.013.011.597.849.15.06.511.442.2223.9nr35.042.031.626.2384.3940.01,324.2

Feb 332.513.013.011.597.846.55.16.511.442.2223.9nr34.142.032.126.2384.3937.71,321.9

Rice, Milled

2015/16 148.10.50.00.27.20.915.86.836.2104.4145.8nr0.00.70.20.06.1466.8473.0

2016/17 prel. 150.40.50.00.68.40.919.26.936.9110.2145.0nr0.00.70.20.07.1479.7486.8

2017/18 proj.

Jan 150.40.50.00.67.80.820.47.237.0107.5146.0nr0.00.60.20.05.7479.1484.7

Feb 150.00.50.00.67.80.820.47.237.0107.5146.0nr0.00.60.20.05.7478.7484.3

Total Grains

2015/16 736.634.210.135.081.450.620.637.646.7229.6507.4nr60.799.236.253.2429.32,039.32,468.5

2016/17 prel. 721.728.619.947.6116.767.824.538.947.8241.0501.2nr66.1114.037.457.5472.62,130.72,603.3

2017/18 proj.

Jan 726.134.614.433.6109.967.425.440.248.4248.1499.9nr61.5127.635.456.2437.32,128.72,565.9

Feb 726.834.614.433.6109.965.325.540.248.4248.1499.9nr61.1127.635.856.2437.32,127.22,564.5

Oilseeds

2015/16 82.02.31.53.799.060.80.93.511.829.454.5nr17.612.91.024.9115.9405.6521.5

2016/17 prel. 83.22.72.35.4117.062.80.93.712.837.856.3nr20.715.01.126.2126.9448.0575.0

2017/18 proj.

Jan 86.03.32.24.4113.361.11.04.013.436.558.0nr19.215.51.329.6131.3448.8580.1

Feb 85.23.32.14.4115.359.11.04.013.435.658.5nr19.115.51.329.6131.3447.3578.6

Cotton

2015/16 13.92.70.02.95.90.80.07.00.025.922.01.30.00.00.90.012.983.396.1

2016/17 prel. 14.83.20.14.17.00.80.07.70.027.022.81.30.00.00.80.017.289.4106.6

2017/18 proj.

Jan 15.34.00.14.67.80.90.08.20.029.326.41.50.00.01.50.021.399.7121.0

Feb 15.34.00.24.48.00.90.08.20.028.527.51.50.00.01.50.021.3100.1121.4

1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.


Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MMTPercent

Yield

(Metric tons per hectare)

Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million metric tons)

Change in Production

2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Feb Percent

2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

223.68World 1.047.810.161.24758.25221.56 219.77 219.79 3.29 3.39 3.44 3.45 735.31 750.44 757.01

19.15United States -24.61-15.460.000.0047.3717.75 15.21 15.21 2.93 3.54 3.11 3.11 56.12 62.83 47.37

204.53Total Foreign 3.3823.270.171.24710.88203.82 204.56 204.58 3.32 3.37 3.47 3.47 679.19 687.60 709.64

none

26.83European Union 4.376.350.000.00151.6027.26 26.47 26.47 5.98 5.33 5.73 5.73 160.48 145.25 151.60

24.14China 0.901.160.000.00130.0024.19 24.20 24.20 5.39 5.33 5.37 5.37 130.19 128.85 130.00

South Asia

31.47 India 13.0811.380.000.0098.3830.22 30.60 30.60 2.75 2.88 3.22 3.22 86.53 87.00 98.38

9.20 Pakistan 3.520.900.000.0026.509.20 9.05 9.05 2.73 2.78 2.93 2.93 25.10 25.60 26.50

2.55 Afghanistan -1.96-0.100.000.005.002.55 2.55 2.55 1.96 2.00 1.96 1.96 5.00 5.10 5.00

0.77 Nepal 3.610.060.000.001.780.77 0.77 0.77 2.25 2.23 2.31 2.31 1.74 1.72 1.78

Former Soviet Union - 12

25.58 Russia 17.1912.470.000.0085.0027.00 27.20 27.20 2.39 2.69 3.13 3.13 61.04 72.53 85.00

7.12 Ukraine 0.710.191.820.4826.986.46 6.60 6.64 3.83 4.15 4.02 4.06 27.27 26.79 26.50

11.57 Kazakhstan -6.57-0.990.000.0014.0012.37 11.80 11.80 1.19 1.21 1.19 1.19 13.75 14.99 14.00

1.40 Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.007.201.40 1.40 1.40 5.14 5.14 5.14 5.14 7.20 7.20 7.20

0.73 Belarus 11.110.260.000.002.600.71 0.70 0.70 3.96 3.29 3.71 3.71 2.90 2.34 2.60

9.58Canada -5.45-1.730.000.0030.008.88 9.00 9.00 2.88 3.57 3.33 3.33 27.59 31.73 30.00

South America

3.95 Argentina -2.17-0.402.860.5018.005.56 5.60 5.60 2.86 3.31 3.13 3.21 11.30 18.40 17.50

2.45 Brazil -36.85-2.480.000.004.252.12 1.90 1.90 2.26 3.17 2.24 2.24 5.54 6.73 4.25

0.33 Uruguay -20.74-0.160.000.000.600.22 0.19 0.19 3.61 3.52 3.24 3.24 1.19 0.76 0.60

11.28Australia -29.19-8.860.000.0021.5011.72 12.50 12.50 1.97 2.59 1.72 1.72 22.28 30.36 21.50

Africa

1.26 Egypt 0.000.000.000.008.101.26 1.26 1.26 6.43 6.43 6.43 6.43 8.10 8.10 8.10

3.31 Morocco 128.853.520.000.006.252.41 3.32 3.32 2.44 1.13 1.88 1.88 8.06 2.73 6.25

1.60 Ethiopia 7.690.300.000.004.201.60 1.60 1.60 2.19 2.44 2.63 2.63 3.50 3.90 4.20

2.10 Algeria 20.000.400.000.002.401.30 1.60 1.60 1.29 1.54 1.50 1.50 2.70 2.00 2.40

Middle East

7.86 Turkey 21.743.750.000.0021.007.82 7.80 7.80 2.48 2.21 2.69 2.69 19.50 17.25 21.00

6.80 Iran -3.23-0.500.000.0015.006.80 6.80 6.80 2.21 2.28 2.21 2.21 15.00 15.50 15.00

2.45 Iraq -4.73-0.200.000.004.032.35 2.23 2.23 1.80 1.80 1.81 1.81 4.41 4.23 4.03

1.45 Syria -8.33-0.200.000.002.201.10 1.10 1.10 2.41 2.18 2.00 2.00 3.50 2.40 2.20

0.82Mexico -9.44-0.37-1.41-0.053.500.72 0.66 0.67 4.53 5.34 5.38 5.26 3.71 3.87 3.55

7.95Others -6.66-1.491.510.3120.817.83 7.67 7.64 2.72 2.85 2.67 2.72 21.61 22.30 20.50

World and Selected Countries and Regions


Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

322.89World -3.23-44.10-0.17-2.291,321.94324.35 321.12 321.01 3.90 4.21 4.12 4.12 1,260.26 1,366.04 1,324.22

37.80United States -4.56-18.360.000.00384.2639.20 36.74 36.74 9.71 10.27 10.46 10.46 367.01 402.61 384.26

285.09Total Foreign -2.67-25.74-0.24-2.29937.68285.14 284.38 284.26 3.13 3.38 3.31 3.30 893.25 963.42 939.97

none

40.16China -1.54-3.510.000.00223.9338.99 37.72 37.72 5.76 5.83 5.94 5.94 231.40 227.44 223.93

30.21European Union -1.18-1.800.000.00150.8029.40 29.49 29.49 5.05 5.19 5.11 5.11 152.67 152.59 150.80

South America

16.90 Brazil -3.73-3.790.000.0097.7918.62 18.79 18.79 4.06 5.46 5.21 5.21 68.65 101.58 97.79

5.98 Argentina -4.35-2.12-5.40-2.6546.456.84 7.06 7.06 6.43 7.11 6.96 6.58 38.44 48.57 49.10


15.23 Russia 3.021.230.000.0042.0015.14 14.63 14.63 2.46 2.69 2.87 2.87 37.43 40.77 42.00

7.62 Ukraine -13.12-5.15-2.63-0.9234.077.82 7.64 7.59 4.38 5.01 4.58 4.49 33.39 39.22 34.99

2.46 Kazakhstan -14.33-0.640.000.003.802.33 2.47 2.47 1.51 1.90 1.54 1.54 3.73 4.43 3.80

0.95 Belarus 31.840.970.000.004.000.96 1.15 1.15 3.48 3.16 3.48 3.48 3.32 3.03 4.00

Africa

12.75 Nigeria -2.51-0.490.000.0018.8512.75 12.65 12.65 1.31 1.52 1.49 1.49 16.68 19.34 18.85

2.41 South Africa -28.13-5.070.000.0012.963.18 3.09 2.99 3.61 5.67 4.20 4.34 8.68 18.04 12.96

5.15 Tanzania 9.430.560.000.006.505.33 5.35 5.35 1.39 1.12 1.21 1.21 7.17 5.94 6.50

3.85 Burkina 5.260.220.000.004.403.85 3.85 3.85 1.00 1.09 1.14 1.14 3.85 4.18 4.40

5.41 Ethiopia 2.640.340.000.0013.045.64 5.66 5.66 2.41 2.25 2.30 2.30 13.04 12.70 13.04

0.97 Egypt 0.000.000.000.006.860.97 0.97 0.97 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 6.86 6.86 6.86

3.95 Mali -18.50-1.110.000.004.903.85 3.85 3.85 1.43 1.56 1.27 1.27 5.67 6.01 4.90

24.51India -3.76-1.650.000.0042.2424.39 24.23 24.23 1.58 1.80 1.74 1.74 38.70 43.89 42.24

Southeast Asia

3.30 Indonesia 4.130.450.000.0011.353.40 3.50 3.50 3.18 3.21 3.24 3.24 10.50 10.90 11.35

2.42 Philippines 0.850.070.000.008.202.69 2.65 2.65 2.88 3.03 3.09 3.09 6.97 8.13 8.20

1.15 Vietnam -3.48-0.180.000.004.881.10 1.05 1.05 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.65 5.23 5.06 4.88

1.12 Thailand -3.81-0.202.020.105.051.20 1.13 1.15 4.25 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.76 5.25 4.95

9.25Mexico -3.75-1.251.420.4532.089.34 9.02 9.03 3.50 3.57 3.51 3.55 32.38 33.33 31.63

4.88Canada 1.590.410.000.0026.214.66 4.72 4.72 5.25 5.54 5.56 5.56 25.62 25.79 26.21

5.58Australia -30.82-5.120.000.0011.506.09 5.41 5.41 2.25 2.73 2.13 2.13 12.54 16.62 11.50

Middle East

4.31 Turkey 19.742.150.000.0013.044.26 4.29 4.29 3.31 2.56 3.04 3.04 14.24 10.89 13.04

1.74 Iran 1.800.100.000.005.661.74 1.84 1.84 3.20 3.20 3.08 3.08 5.56 5.56 5.66

72.85Others -0.17-0.180.690.73107.1570.63 72.21 72.21 1.45 1.52 1.47 1.48 105.81 107.33 106.42

World and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum


Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

181.01World -3.18-34.24-0.27-2.831,041.73185.68 184.59 184.43 5.38 5.79 5.66 5.65 973.45 1,075.97 1,044.56

32.68United States -3.59-13.820.000.00370.9635.11 33.47 33.47 10.57 10.96 11.08 11.08 345.51 384.78 370.96

148.33Total Foreign -2.95-20.42-0.42-2.83670.77150.57 151.12 150.96 4.23 4.59 4.46 4.44 627.95 691.19 673.60

none

38.12China -1.67-3.660.000.00215.8936.77 35.45 35.45 5.89 5.97 6.09 6.09 224.63 219.55 215.89

South America

16.00 Brazil -3.55-3.500.000.0095.0017.60 17.70 17.70 4.19 5.60 5.37 5.37 67.00 98.50 95.00

3.70 Argentina -4.88-2.00-7.14-3.0039.004.90 5.20 5.20 7.97 8.37 8.08 7.50 29.50 41.00 42.00

0.38 Bolivia 670.830.810.000.000.930.09 0.37 0.37 2.47 1.38 2.50 2.50 0.94 0.12 0.93

9.25European Union -2.22-1.360.000.0060.098.56 8.47 8.47 6.35 7.18 7.10 7.10 58.75 61.45 60.09

Africa

2.21 South Africa -28.47-4.980.000.0012.503.00 2.90 2.80 3.71 5.83 4.31 4.46 8.21 17.48 12.50

5.80 Nigeria -2.37-0.260.000.0010.505.80 5.80 5.80 1.64 1.85 1.81 1.81 9.54 10.76 10.50

2.15 Ethiopia 2.360.150.000.006.502.20 2.22 2.22 3.16 2.89 2.93 2.93 6.80 6.35 6.50

0.75 Egypt 0.000.000.000.006.000.75 0.75 0.75 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

4.00 Tanzania 11.110.540.000.005.354.20 4.20 4.20 1.50 1.15 1.27 1.27 6.00 4.82 5.35

1.75 Malawi 51.961.230.000.003.601.65 1.70 1.70 1.59 1.44 2.12 2.12 2.78 2.37 3.60

0.96 Zambia 25.550.730.000.003.611.16 1.43 1.43 2.72 2.48 2.52 2.52 2.62 2.87 3.61

2.10 Kenya -5.75-0.180.000.002.952.10 2.10 2.10 1.76 1.49 1.40 1.40 3.69 3.13 2.95

1.10 Uganda 4.170.100.000.002.501.10 1.10 1.10 2.04 2.18 2.27 2.27 2.25 2.40 2.50

1.53 Zimbabwe 320.901.640.000.002.160.77 1.88 1.88 0.48 0.66 1.15 1.15 0.74 0.51 2.16


4.09 Ukraine -13.78-3.85-3.54-0.8924.124.24 4.50 4.43 5.71 6.60 5.56 5.44 23.33 27.97 25.00

2.67 Russia -11.79-1.810.000.0013.502.78 2.75 2.75 4.93 5.51 4.91 4.91 13.17 15.31 13.50

South Asia

8.81 India -4.80-1.260.000.0025.009.60 9.50 9.50 2.56 2.74 2.63 2.63 22.57 26.26 25.00

1.21 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.006.001.35 1.30 1.30 4.38 4.45 4.62 4.62 5.30 6.00 6.00

0.85 Nepal 0.000.000.000.002.000.90 0.90 0.90 2.35 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.00 2.00 2.00

Southeast Asia

3.30 Indonesia 4.130.450.000.0011.353.40 3.50 3.50 3.18 3.21 3.24 3.24 10.50 10.90 11.35

2.42 Philippines 0.850.070.000.008.202.69 2.65 2.65 2.88 3.03 3.09 3.09 6.97 8.13 8.20

1.15 Vietnam -3.48-0.180.000.004.881.10 1.05 1.05 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.65 5.23 5.06 4.88

1.09 Thailand -3.85-0.202.040.105.001.17 1.10 1.12 4.31 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.70 5.20 4.90

7.21Mexico -3.90-1.081.150.3026.507.51 7.25 7.23 3.60 3.67 3.61 3.67 25.97 27.58 26.20

1.31Canada 6.870.910.000.0014.101.33 1.41 1.41 10.33 9.96 10.04 10.04 13.56 13.19 14.10

0.62Turkey 9.090.500.000.006.000.57 0.60 0.60 10.00 9.65 10.00 10.00 6.20 5.50 6.00

23.80Others -5.33-3.241.160.6657.5623.30 23.36 23.36 2.48 2.61 2.44 2.46 59.00 60.80 56.90



Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

50.34World -2.82-4.120.290.42142.0848.55 47.57 47.57 2.97 3.01 2.98 2.99 149.64 146.20 141.66

1.28United States -29.01-1.260.000.003.091.04 0.79 0.79 3.72 4.19 3.91 3.91 4.75 4.35 3.09

49.06Total Foreign -2.01-2.860.300.42138.9947.51 46.78 46.78 2.95 2.99 2.96 2.97 144.89 141.85 138.57

none

12.25European Union -1.97-1.180.000.0058.6812.29 12.34 12.34 5.07 4.87 4.76 4.76 62.10 59.86 58.68


8.04 Russia 15.122.650.000.0020.207.96 7.70 7.70 2.12 2.21 2.62 2.62 17.08 17.55 20.20

3.00 Ukraine -11.94-1.18-0.06-0.018.703.05 2.65 2.65 2.92 3.24 3.28 3.28 8.75 9.87 8.70

2.04 Kazakhstan -16.43-0.530.000.002.701.89 2.05 2.05 1.31 1.71 1.32 1.32 2.68 3.23 2.70

0.50 Belarus 51.640.650.000.001.900.45 0.55 0.55 3.70 2.78 3.45 3.45 1.85 1.25 1.90

0.36 Azerbaijan 0.000.000.000.000.950.35 0.35 0.35 2.95 2.71 2.71 2.71 1.06 0.95 0.95

2.35Canada -10.06-0.880.000.007.902.22 2.10 2.10 3.49 3.95 3.76 3.76 8.23 8.78 7.90

4.11Australia -38.09-4.920.000.008.004.62 3.90 3.90 2.19 2.79 2.05 2.05 8.99 12.92 8.00

Middle East

3.40 Turkey 34.741.650.000.006.403.40 3.40 3.40 2.18 1.40 1.88 1.88 7.40 4.75 6.40

1.30 Iran 3.330.100.000.003.101.30 1.40 1.40 2.31 2.31 2.21 2.21 3.00 3.00 3.10

1.25 Iraq -14.52-0.230.000.001.331.20 1.07 1.07 1.24 1.29 1.24 1.24 1.55 1.55 1.33

0.70 Syria -1.54-0.010.000.000.320.45 0.45 0.45 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.50 0.33 0.32

Africa

1.20 Ethiopia 0.980.020.000.002.071.20 1.20 1.20 1.63 1.71 1.73 1.73 1.95 2.05 2.07

2.06 Morocco 222.581.380.000.002.001.21 1.80 1.80 1.65 0.51 1.11 1.11 3.40 0.62 2.00

1.00 Algeria -3.20-0.030.000.000.970.90 0.76 0.76 1.30 1.11 1.27 1.27 1.30 1.00 0.97

0.38 Tunisia 33.330.130.000.000.500.28 0.38 0.38 0.97 1.34 1.33 1.33 0.37 0.38 0.50

0.09 South Africa -20.90-0.070.000.000.280.09 0.09 0.09 3.53 3.98 3.11 3.11 0.33 0.35 0.28

South America

1.25 Argentina -3.03-0.1012.280.353.200.87 0.76 0.76 3.95 3.79 3.75 4.21 4.94 3.30 2.85

0.09 Uruguay -39.53-0.270.000.000.410.19 0.10 0.10 3.83 3.57 4.10 4.10 0.36 0.68 0.41

0.13 Brazil -22.40-0.080.000.000.290.10 0.11 0.11 2.07 3.91 2.67 2.67 0.26 0.38 0.29

0.71India 20.830.300.000.001.740.59 0.73 0.73 2.28 2.44 2.39 2.39 1.61 1.44 1.74

0.45China 5.000.100.000.002.100.50 0.52 0.52 4.18 4.00 4.04 4.04 1.87 2.00 2.10

0.32Mexico -24.85-0.240.000.000.740.33 0.30 0.30 2.33 2.96 2.45 2.45 0.74 0.98 0.74

0.28Afghanistan -2.38-0.010.000.000.410.28 0.28 0.28 1.43 1.50 1.46 1.46 0.40 0.42 0.41

1.80Others -2.30-0.101.730.074.111.80 1.80 1.80 2.32 2.34 2.25 2.29 4.18 4.21 4.04



Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

9.48World -1.42-0.34-0.08-0.0223.529.54 9.51 9.52 2.32 2.50 2.48 2.47 21.94 23.86 23.54

0.52United States -23.72-0.220.000.000.720.40 0.32 0.32 2.52 2.37 2.21 2.21 1.30 0.94 0.72

8.96Total Foreign -0.50-0.12-0.08-0.0222.809.14 9.19 9.20 2.30 2.51 2.48 2.48 20.64 22.92 22.82

none

2.51European Union 0.460.040.000.008.072.56 2.62 2.62 3.00 3.14 3.08 3.08 7.52 8.04 8.07


2.83 Russia 14.530.690.000.005.442.75 2.78 2.78 1.60 1.73 1.96 1.96 4.53 4.75 5.44

0.22 Ukraine -5.69-0.03-3.80-0.020.480.21 0.20 0.21 2.29 2.38 2.56 2.31 0.50 0.51 0.50

0.15 Belarus 28.210.110.000.000.500.15 0.15 0.15 3.26 2.67 3.33 3.33 0.49 0.39 0.50

0.20 Kazakhstan -19.40-0.070.000.000.270.21 0.22 0.22 1.20 1.60 1.26 1.26 0.24 0.34 0.27

1.06Canada 15.810.510.000.003.700.91 1.05 1.05 3.25 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.43 3.20 3.70

South America

0.24 Argentina -15.92-0.130.000.000.660.32 0.30 0.30 2.30 2.45 2.24 2.24 0.55 0.79 0.66

0.19 Brazil -17.63-0.150.000.000.680.29 0.34 0.34 1.85 2.84 2.01 2.01 0.35 0.83 0.68

0.11 Chile -6.03-0.040.000.000.670.14 0.14 0.14 4.94 5.20 4.75 4.75 0.53 0.71 0.67

0.03 Uruguay -7.320.000.000.000.040.03 0.03 0.03 1.38 1.58 1.52 1.52 0.04 0.04 0.04

Oceania

0.82 Australia -48.26-1.030.000.001.100.96 0.74 0.74 1.58 2.23 1.49 1.49 1.30 2.13 1.10

0.01 New Zealand -5.410.000.000.000.040.01 0.01 0.01 4.83 5.29 5.00 5.00 0.03 0.04 0.04

0.18China 2.700.010.000.000.190.19 0.19 0.19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.18 0.19 0.19

Africa

0.09 Algeria 0.000.000.000.000.110.09 0.09 0.09 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.05 Morocco 0.000.000.000.000.070.05 0.05 0.05 1.19 1.44 1.44 1.44 0.06 0.07 0.07

0.03 South Africa 0.000.000.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 0.06 0.06 0.06

Other Europe

0.06 Norway -9.09-0.030.000.000.300.08 0.08 0.08 4.54 4.34 4.00 4.00 0.29 0.33 0.30

0.03 Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.070.03 0.03 0.03 2.20 2.17 2.17 2.17 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.01 Albania 0.000.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.01 Bosnia and Herzegovina -37.93-0.010.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 2.67 2.90 2.57 2.57 0.02 0.03 0.02

0.09Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.210.09 0.09 0.09 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.33 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.05Mexico 25.000.020.000.000.090.04 0.05 0.05 1.81 1.89 1.80 1.80 0.09 0.07 0.09

0.01Others 0.000.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 1.93 1.79 1.79 1.79 0.03 0.03 0.03



Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

4.15World 0.910.110.480.0612.524.14 4.11 4.11 2.93 3.00 3.03 3.05 12.17 12.41 12.46

0.15United States -28.07-0.100.000.000.250.17 0.12 0.12 1.99 2.04 2.12 2.12 0.30 0.34 0.25

4.00Total Foreign 1.730.210.490.0612.273.97 3.99 3.99 2.97 3.04 3.06 3.07 11.88 12.07 12.21

none

1.96European Union 0.320.020.000.007.521.90 1.96 1.96 3.99 3.94 3.83 3.83 7.83 7.49 7.52


1.25 Russia 0.080.000.000.002.541.25 1.17 1.17 1.67 2.03 2.17 2.17 2.08 2.54 2.54

0.25 Belarus 22.890.150.000.000.800.24 0.30 0.30 3.01 2.70 2.67 2.67 0.75 0.65 0.80

0.15 Ukraine 29.440.1213.330.060.510.15 0.17 0.17 2.59 2.72 2.65 2.97 0.39 0.39 0.45

0.04 Kazakhstan -26.83-0.010.000.000.030.04 0.02 0.02 0.97 1.14 1.25 1.25 0.04 0.04 0.03

0.14Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.350.14 0.14 0.14 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.10Canada -22.89-0.100.000.000.320.13 0.10 0.10 2.38 3.22 3.30 3.30 0.23 0.42 0.32

South America

0.00 Chile 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.03 Argentina 3.800.000.000.000.080.04 0.04 0.04 1.79 1.93 2.10 2.10 0.06 0.08 0.08

Other Europe

0.00 Bosnia and Herzegovina -15.380.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 3.25 2.75 2.75 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.00 Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.00 Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.04Australia 4.000.000.000.000.030.04 0.04 0.04 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.02 0.03 0.03

0.04Others 55.000.020.000.000.060.03 0.04 0.04 2.24 1.21 1.72 1.72 0.08 0.04 0.06



Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

43.89World -5.94-3.750.140.0859.4542.00 41.60 41.62 1.40 1.50 1.43 1.43 61.39 63.21 59.37

3.18United States -24.24-2.960.000.009.242.49 2.04 2.04 4.77 4.89 4.53 4.53 15.16 12.20 9.24

40.72Total Foreign -1.56-0.800.170.0850.2139.51 39.56 39.58 1.14 1.29 1.27 1.27 46.23 51.01 50.13

none

Africa

5.45 Nigeria -4.89-0.340.000.006.555.45 5.35 5.35 1.04 1.26 1.22 1.22 5.66 6.89 6.55

1.70 Ethiopia 4.580.170.000.003.771.80 1.80 1.80 2.29 2.00 2.09 2.09 3.90 3.60 3.77

8.00 Sudan -23.26-1.360.000.004.508.00 8.00 8.00 0.30 0.73 0.56 0.56 2.39 5.86 4.50

1.80 Burkina 7.140.120.000.001.801.80 1.80 1.80 0.80 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.44 1.68 1.80

1.25 Mali -6.74-0.090.000.001.301.25 1.25 1.25 1.22 1.12 1.04 1.04 1.53 1.39 1.30

3.70 Niger -5.97-0.110.000.001.703.70 3.70 3.70 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.46 1.88 1.81 1.70

0.75 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.001.150.75 0.75 0.75 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.15 1.15 1.15

0.80 Tanzania 0.000.000.000.000.800.80 0.80 0.80 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.82 0.80 0.80

0.14 Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.750.14 0.14 0.14 5.36 5.36 5.36 5.36 0.75 0.75 0.75

0.35 Uganda 6.250.020.000.000.340.35 0.35 0.35 0.91 0.91 0.97 0.97 0.32 0.32 0.34

0.25 Ghana 7.690.020.000.000.280.25 0.25 0.25 0.91 1.04 1.12 1.12 0.23 0.26 0.28

0.37 Mozambique 8.330.020.000.000.260.40 0.40 0.40 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.22 0.24 0.26

0.05 South Africa -16.67-0.030.000.000.130.04 0.05 0.05 1.45 3.75 2.50 2.50 0.07 0.15 0.13

1.68Mexico 1.060.053.260.154.751.46 1.42 1.45 3.33 3.22 3.24 3.28 5.59 4.70 4.60

South America

0.75 Argentina 2.940.100.000.003.500.70 0.76 0.76 4.50 4.86 4.61 4.61 3.38 3.40 3.50

0.58 Brazil -3.16-0.060.000.001.810.63 0.63 0.63 1.78 2.97 2.86 2.86 1.03 1.87 1.81

South Asia

6.08 India -1.53-0.070.000.004.505.10 5.00 5.00 0.70 0.90 0.90 0.90 4.24 4.57 4.50

0.24 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.130.20 0.20 0.20 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.15 0.13 0.13

0.57China 1.320.050.000.003.850.76 0.78 0.78 4.79 5.00 4.94 4.94 2.75 3.80 3.85

0.52Australia 91.730.910.000.001.900.37 0.63 0.63 3.44 2.67 3.02 3.02 1.79 0.99 1.90

0.13European Union 3.130.020.000.000.660.12 0.12 0.12 5.27 5.42 5.63 5.63 0.67 0.64 0.66

5.56Others -3.56-0.21-1.14-0.075.805.44 5.38 5.37 1.13 1.10 1.09 1.08 6.29 6.01 5.86




Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

159.44World -0.50-2.45-0.08-0.38484.33160.82 160.46 160.43 4.42 4.52 4.51 4.50 472.96 486.78 484.71

1.05United States -20.49-1.460.000.005.661.25 0.96 0.96 8.38 8.11 8.41 8.41 6.13 7.12 5.66

158.39Total Foreign -0.21-0.99-0.08-0.38478.67159.57 159.50 159.47 4.40 4.49 4.48 4.48 466.83 479.67 479.05

none

East Asia

30.21 China 0.721.050.000.00146.0030.18 30.18 30.18 6.89 6.86 6.91 6.91 145.77 144.95 146.00

1.59 Japan -2.31-0.180.000.007.601.57 1.56 1.56 6.64 6.81 6.69 6.69 7.67 7.78 7.60

0.80 Korea, South -5.36-0.230.000.003.970.78 0.76 0.76 7.22 7.18 7.01 7.01 4.33 4.20 3.97

0.48 Korea, North -3.13-0.050.000.001.550.50 0.50 0.50 4.21 4.92 4.77 4.77 1.30 1.60 1.55

South Asia

43.50 India -2.41-2.650.000.00107.5043.19 42.70 42.70 3.60 3.83 3.78 3.78 104.41 110.15 107.50

11.77 Bangladesh -5.58-1.93-1.06-0.3532.6511.75 11.30 11.27 4.40 4.42 4.38 4.35 34.50 34.58 33.00

2.74 Pakistan 5.110.350.000.007.202.69 2.70 2.70 3.72 3.82 4.00 4.00 6.80 6.85 7.20

1.50 Nepal 0.810.030.000.003.251.50 1.50 1.50 2.87 3.23 3.25 3.25 2.86 3.22 3.25

1.23 Sri Lanka 45.220.900.000.002.900.68 1.00 1.00 3.95 4.35 4.27 4.27 3.29 2.00 2.90

Southeast Asia

12.10 Indonesia 0.390.140.000.0037.0012.24 12.20 12.20 4.71 4.78 4.78 4.78 36.20 36.86 37.00

7.70 Vietnam 3.831.050.000.0028.457.71 7.73 7.73 5.73 5.68 5.89 5.89 27.58 27.40 28.45

9.44 Thailand 6.251.200.000.0020.4010.25 10.70 10.70 2.53 2.84 2.89 2.89 15.80 19.20 20.40

6.90 Burma 2.370.300.000.0012.957.03 7.10 7.10 2.75 2.81 2.85 2.85 12.16 12.65 12.95

4.52 Philippines 2.430.280.000.0011.974.72 4.80 4.80 3.86 3.93 3.96 3.96 11.00 11.69 11.97

3.03 Cambodia 1.010.050.000.005.003.09 3.12 3.12 2.50 2.51 2.51 2.51 4.85 4.95 5.00

0.97 Laos 2.560.050.000.002.000.97 0.98 0.98 3.17 3.19 3.24 3.24 1.93 1.95 2.00

0.69 Malaysia 0.000.000.000.001.820.70 0.70 0.70 4.01 4.03 4.03 4.03 1.80 1.82 1.82

South America

2.01 Brazil -6.72-0.560.000.007.821.98 2.00 2.00 5.28 6.22 5.75 5.75 7.21 8.38 7.82

0.42 Peru 11.950.260.000.002.450.42 0.45 0.45 7.56 7.54 7.93 7.93 2.17 2.19 2.45

Africa

0.65 Egypt -10.42-0.500.000.004.300.85 0.76 0.76 8.92 8.18 8.18 8.18 4.00 4.80 4.30

1.45 Madagascar -16.13-0.390.000.002.051.48 1.43 1.43 2.57 2.59 2.25 2.25 2.38 2.44 2.05

3.10 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.003.653.20 3.20 3.20 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 3.53 3.65 3.65

0.44European Union 1.060.020.000.002.090.44 0.44 0.44 6.78 6.79 6.88 6.88 2.05 2.07 2.09

0.63Iran 0.000.000.000.001.780.63 0.63 0.63 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 1.78 1.78 1.78

10.55Others -0.84-0.19-0.13-0.0322.3211.05 11.09 11.09 3.10 3.10 3.06 3.06 21.46 22.51 22.35

Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process. Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process.



Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

--World Total 0.633.65-0.25-1.46578.62-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 521.50 574.97 580.08

--Total Foreign -0.16-0.72-0.33-1.46447.31-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 405.62 448.04 448.77

--Oilseed, Copra 2.380.130.000.005.54-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5.32 5.41 5.54

--Oilseed, Palm Kernel 7.441.290.320.0618.59-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 15.96 17.30 18.53

none

232.32Major OilSeeds 0.402.23-0.27-1.52554.48234.13 245.13 244.83 2.15 2.36 2.27 2.26 500.22 552.25 556.00

38.40United States 3.454.370.000.00131.3139.25 42.90 42.90 3.02 3.23 3.06 3.06 115.88 126.94 131.31

none

193.93Foreign Oilseeds -0.50-2.14-0.36-1.52423.18194.89 202.23 201.93 1.98 2.18 2.10 2.10 384.34 425.32 424.70

62.16South America -3.54-6.96-0.50-0.95189.4061.66 63.78 63.59 2.82 3.18 2.98 2.98 175.11 196.36 190.35

34.43 Brazil -1.48-1.731.832.07115.2135.03 36.29 36.31 2.87 3.34 3.12 3.17 98.91 116.94 113.15

21.50 Argentina -5.84-3.67-3.27-2.0059.1520.65 21.18 21.00 2.83 3.04 2.89 2.82 60.80 62.82 61.15

3.41 Paraguay -13.47-1.45-2.10-0.209.323.46 3.48 3.48 2.75 3.12 2.73 2.68 9.39 10.77 9.52

1.48 Bolivia 24.600.53-23.15-0.822.711.23 1.57 1.53 2.25 1.77 2.25 1.77 3.34 2.17 3.52

1.18 Uruguay -20.79-0.680.000.002.601.13 1.10 1.10 1.92 2.89 2.37 2.37 2.27 3.28 2.60

22.74China 3.752.110.860.5058.4523.24 23.90 24.00 2.39 2.42 2.42 2.44 54.45 56.34 57.95

38.32South Asia -4.63-1.90-2.20-0.8839.2537.56 38.21 38.16 0.85 1.10 1.05 1.03 32.50 41.16 40.14

34.75 India -5.81-2.15-2.47-0.8834.8834.43 34.68 34.63 0.82 1.08 1.03 1.01 28.64 37.03 35.76

3.22 Pakistan 6.600.250.000.003.962.77 3.17 3.17 1.07 1.34 1.25 1.25 3.45 3.71 3.96

11.84European Union 7.752.470.000.0034.3911.76 12.32 12.32 2.74 2.71 2.79 2.79 32.44 31.91 34.39

21.32Former Soviet Union - 12 -2.40-0.96-0.010.0038.9522.54 23.39 23.41 1.61 1.77 1.67 1.66 34.39 39.91 38.95

9.43 Russia 3.410.510.000.0015.5010.20 10.55 10.55 1.37 1.47 1.47 1.47 12.88 14.99 15.50

8.31 Ukraine -7.90-1.64-0.54-0.1019.108.71 9.15 9.17 2.11 2.38 2.10 2.08 17.58 20.74 19.20

1.29 Uzbekistan -1.00-0.010.000.001.391.18 1.20 1.20 1.16 1.19 1.16 1.16 1.49 1.40 1.39

10.59Canada 12.803.360.000.0029.5610.35 12.19 12.19 2.35 2.53 2.43 2.43 24.91 26.20 29.56

18.35Africa 2.120.36-0.74-0.1317.0918.39 18.85 18.73 0.89 0.91 0.91 0.91 16.33 16.73 17.22

3.46 Nigeria 0.080.000.000.003.783.48 3.47 3.47 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.77 3.77 3.78

1.25 South Africa -11.89-0.28-6.09-0.132.071.29 1.47 1.35 1.23 1.83 1.50 1.53 1.54 2.35 2.20

1.24 Tanzania -1.30-0.010.000.000.911.19 1.19 1.19 0.74 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.92 0.92 0.91

3.30Southeast Asia -0.020.000.000.004.643.29 3.28 3.28 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 4.65 4.64 4.64

1.06 Indonesia -2.72-0.050.000.001.641.03 1.01 1.01 1.62 1.64 1.62 1.62 1.71 1.69 1.64

1.87 Burma 1.130.030.000.002.241.88 1.88 1.88 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 2.22 2.21 2.24

2.45Australia -19.33-1.05-1.35-0.064.383.18 3.16 3.10 1.52 1.70 1.41 1.41 3.74 5.43 4.44

1.02Turkey 22.990.620.000.003.291.10 1.21 1.21 2.24 2.43 2.71 2.71 2.28 2.68 3.29

1.83Others -4.59-0.180.000.003.791.82 1.95 1.94 1.93 2.19 1.95 1.96 3.53 3.97 3.79

World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and

rapeseed)


Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

120.43World -1.25-4.40-0.47-1.65346.92120.30 126.10 125.81 2.61 2.92 2.76 2.76 313.77 351.32 348.57

33.08United States 2.222.600.000.00119.5233.47 36.23 36.23 3.23 3.49 3.30 3.30 106.86 116.92 119.52

87.35Total Foreign -2.99-7.00-0.72-1.65227.4086.84 89.87 89.58 2.37 2.70 2.55 2.54 206.91 234.40 229.05

none

South America

33.30 Brazil -1.84-2.101.822.00112.0033.90 35.00 35.00 2.90 3.37 3.14 3.20 96.50 114.10 110.00

19.53 Argentina -6.57-3.80-3.57-2.0054.0018.35 18.70 18.50 2.91 3.15 2.99 2.92 56.80 57.80 56.00

3.26 Paraguay -13.74-1.47-2.13-0.209.203.39 3.40 3.40 2.82 3.15 2.76 2.71 9.22 10.67 9.40

1.34 Bolivia 23.400.49-23.87-0.822.601.13 1.44 1.40 2.40 1.86 2.38 1.86 3.21 2.11 3.42

1.14 Uruguay -21.59-0.690.000.002.521.09 1.05 1.05 1.94 2.95 2.41 2.41 2.21 3.21 2.52

East Asia

6.51 China 10.081.300.000.0014.207.20 7.85 7.85 1.81 1.79 1.81 1.81 11.79 12.90 14.20

0.06 Korea, South 60.000.050.000.000.120.05 0.07 0.07 1.82 1.53 1.79 1.79 0.10 0.08 0.12

0.16 Korea, North 0.000.000.000.000.200.15 0.15 0.15 1.39 1.33 1.33 1.33 0.22 0.20 0.20

0.14 Japan 10.170.020.000.000.260.15 0.16 0.16 1.70 1.57 1.68 1.68 0.24 0.24 0.26

11.67India -17.39-2.00-5.00-0.509.5011.40 10.50 10.50 0.59 1.01 0.95 0.90 6.93 11.50 10.00

2.23Canada 22.101.450.000.008.002.21 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.97 2.76 2.76 6.46 6.55 8.00


2.08 Russia 11.680.370.000.003.502.12 2.50 2.50 1.30 1.48 1.40 1.40 2.71 3.13 3.50

2.14 Ukraine -9.24-0.40-2.75-0.113.891.86 2.00 1.98 1.84 2.31 2.00 1.97 3.93 4.29 4.00

0.87European Union 5.090.120.000.002.500.80 0.89 0.89 2.68 2.99 2.82 2.82 2.32 2.38 2.50

Southeast Asia

0.44 Indonesia -4.42-0.030.000.000.540.43 0.42 0.42 1.32 1.31 1.29 1.29 0.58 0.57 0.54

0.09 Vietnam 5.100.010.000.000.170.10 0.11 0.11 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 0.15 0.16 0.17

0.03 Thailand -3.510.000.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 1.76 1.78 1.77 1.77 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.15 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.160.15 0.15 0.15 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.16 0.16 0.16

0.22Serbia -46.15-0.300.000.000.350.19 0.20 0.20 2.20 3.51 1.75 1.75 0.48 0.65 0.35

0.25Mexico -5.70-0.030.000.000.480.28 0.27 0.26 1.36 1.83 1.78 1.85 0.34 0.51 0.48

Africa

0.50 South Africa -6.91-0.09-2.00-0.031.230.57 0.72 0.70 1.48 2.29 1.74 1.75 0.74 1.32 1.25

0.70 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.680.70 0.70 0.70 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.68 0.68 0.68

0.11 Zambia 30.970.080.000.000.350.14 0.23 0.23 2.02 1.94 1.56 1.56 0.23 0.27 0.35

0.05 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.030.05 0.05 0.05 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.03 0.03 0.03

Middle East

0.08 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 0.20 0.20 0.20

0.03 Turkey -15.00-0.020.000.000.090.03 0.02 0.02 3.70 3.33 3.86 3.86 0.10 0.10 0.09

0.29Others 4.710.030.000.000.600.30 0.31 0.31 1.92 1.89 1.95 1.95 0.55 0.57 0.60



Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

29.98World 14.275.570.500.2244.5828.99 32.67 32.75 1.19 1.35 1.36 1.36 35.77 39.01 44.36

3.27United States 25.251.230.000.006.103.85 4.59 4.59 1.12 1.27 1.33 1.33 3.67 4.87 6.10

26.71Total Foreign 12.704.340.580.2238.4825.15 28.08 28.16 1.20 1.36 1.36 1.37 32.11 34.14 38.26

none

South Asia

12.30 India 5.560.64-2.73-0.3412.1010.85 12.30 12.30 0.89 1.06 1.01 0.98 11.00 11.46 12.44

2.80 Pakistan 7.460.250.000.003.602.40 2.80 2.80 1.09 1.40 1.29 1.29 3.05 3.35 3.60

3.05China 22.732.004.850.5010.802.90 3.30 3.40 2.82 3.03 3.12 3.18 8.60 8.80 10.30


1.29 Uzbekistan -1.00-0.010.000.001.391.18 1.20 1.20 1.16 1.19 1.16 1.16 1.49 1.40 1.39

0.50 Turkmenistan 16.020.080.000.000.600.55 0.55 0.55 1.14 0.95 1.10 1.10 0.57 0.52 0.60

0.15 Tajikistan -1.790.000.000.000.170.17 0.18 0.18 1.08 1.02 0.94 0.94 0.16 0.17 0.17

0.10 Kazakhstan 11.610.010.000.000.130.12 0.13 0.13 0.80 0.97 1.00 1.00 0.08 0.11 0.13

South America

0.96 Brazil 17.100.392.590.072.660.94 1.10 1.12 2.03 2.41 2.35 2.37 1.94 2.27 2.59

0.38 Argentina 23.740.070.000.000.340.24 0.40 0.40 0.81 1.16 0.86 0.86 0.31 0.28 0.34

Middle East

0.37 Turkey 33.330.350.000.001.400.40 0.47 0.47 2.35 2.63 2.98 2.98 0.87 1.05 1.40

0.04 Syria -18.75-0.020.000.000.070.04 0.04 0.04 1.60 2.00 1.86 1.86 0.06 0.08 0.07

0.10 Iran -8.16-0.010.000.000.090.10 0.10 0.10 0.98 0.98 0.90 0.90 0.10 0.10 0.09

0.31Australia 8.800.11-4.23-0.061.360.58 0.49 0.44 2.82 2.16 2.90 3.13 0.88 1.25 1.42

0.30European Union 16.590.070.000.000.490.26 0.31 0.31 1.37 1.58 1.55 1.55 0.41 0.42 0.49

Africa

0.66 Burkina -0.830.000.000.000.360.70 0.85 0.85 0.46 0.52 0.42 0.42 0.30 0.36 0.36

0.55 Mali 8.830.031.870.010.380.66 0.73 0.73 0.51 0.54 0.51 0.52 0.28 0.35 0.38

0.22 Cameroon 6.380.020.000.000.250.23 0.23 0.23 1.17 1.04 1.11 1.11 0.26 0.24 0.25

0.40 Cote d'Ivoire 11.980.020.000.000.190.35 0.36 0.36 0.41 0.48 0.52 0.52 0.17 0.17 0.19

0.30 Benin 3.310.010.000.000.280.42 0.45 0.45 0.55 0.66 0.62 0.62 0.17 0.27 0.28

0.40 Tanzania -9.84-0.010.000.000.110.35 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.12 0.12 0.11

0.10 Egypt 71.700.040.000.000.090.06 0.09 0.09 0.98 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.10 0.05 0.09

0.26 Nigeria 3.030.000.000.000.100.28 0.27 0.27 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.10 0.10 0.10

0.07 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.110.07 0.08 0.08 1.23 1.49 1.45 1.45 0.08 0.11 0.11

0.10 Zimbabwe 63.460.030.000.000.090.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.43 0.43 0.02 0.05 0.09

0.05 Sudan 0.000.000.000.000.090.07 0.07 0.07 1.54 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.08 0.09 0.09

0.13Mexico 101.930.260.000.000.520.10 0.21 0.21 2.41 2.51 2.49 2.49 0.32 0.26 0.52

0.24Burma 8.770.030.000.000.310.24 0.25 0.25 1.23 1.17 1.24 1.24 0.30 0.29 0.31

0.60Others -2.76-0.0112.230.050.420.71 0.59 0.61 0.54 0.61 0.63 0.69 0.32 0.43 0.38



Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

24.76World 2.481.07-0.07-0.0344.1225.30 25.30 25.32 1.63 1.70 1.75 1.74 40.42 43.05 44.15

0.63United States 29.580.750.000.003.280.62 0.72 0.72 4.31 4.07 4.56 4.56 2.72 2.53 3.28

24.13Total Foreign 0.790.32-0.07-0.0340.8424.67 24.58 24.60 1.56 1.64 1.66 1.66 37.70 40.52 40.87

none

4.62China 1.210.210.000.0017.504.73 4.85 4.85 3.56 3.66 3.61 3.61 16.44 17.29 17.50

Africa

2.50 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.003.002.50 2.50 2.50 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 3.00 3.00 3.00

2.18 Sudan 0.000.000.000.001.401.80 1.80 1.80 0.86 0.78 0.78 0.78 1.87 1.40 1.40

1.14 Senegal 48.150.460.000.001.401.15 1.25 1.25 0.93 0.82 1.12 1.12 1.05 0.95 1.40

0.40 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.000.550.40 0.40 0.40 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.55 0.55 0.55

0.40 Ghana 0.000.000.000.000.440.40 0.40 0.40 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.44 0.44 0.44

0.50 Chad 0.000.000.000.000.400.50 0.50 0.50 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.40 0.40

0.37 Malawi 0.000.000.000.000.260.37 0.37 0.37 0.79 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.29 0.26 0.26

0.48 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.000.000.000.000.370.48 0.48 0.48 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.37 0.37 0.37

0.74 Niger 0.000.000.000.000.350.74 0.74 0.74 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.38 Mali 0.000.000.000.000.330.38 0.38 0.38 1.39 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.52 0.33 0.33

0.43 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.300.43 0.43 0.43 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.30 0.30 0.30

0.45 Burkina 0.000.000.000.000.350.45 0.45 0.45 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.30 Guinea 0.000.000.000.000.360.30 0.30 0.30 1.17 1.20 1.20 1.20 0.35 0.36 0.36

0.06 Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.210.06 0.06 0.06 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.10 Central African Republic 0.000.000.000.000.150.10 0.10 0.10 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.15 0.15 0.15

0.02 South Africa -26.83-0.03-25.00-0.030.090.06 0.07 0.06 1.04 2.20 1.85 1.64 0.02 0.12 0.12

0.29 Mozambique 0.000.000.000.000.110.29 0.29 0.29 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.08 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.090.08 0.08 0.08 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.16 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.140.15 0.15 0.15 0.85 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.13 0.14 0.14

South Asia

4.55 India -2.99-0.200.000.006.505.30 5.00 5.00 0.98 1.26 1.30 1.30 4.47 6.70 6.50

0.11 Pakistan 5.880.010.000.000.090.09 0.10 0.10 0.90 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.10 0.09 0.09

Southeast Asia

0.62 Indonesia -1.79-0.020.000.001.100.60 0.59 0.59 1.84 1.87 1.86 1.86 1.13 1.12 1.10

0.89 Burma 0.000.000.000.001.380.89 0.89 0.89 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.38 1.38 1.38

0.19 Vietnam 3.100.010.000.000.470.20 0.20 0.20 2.31 2.31 2.33 2.33 0.44 0.45 0.47

0.02 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.040.02 0.02 0.02 1.63 1.67 1.67 1.67 0.04 0.04 0.04

South America

0.29 Argentina -9.94-0.130.000.001.160.32 0.35 0.37 3.21 3.98 3.36 3.14 0.93 1.29 1.16

0.12 Brazil -1.50-0.010.000.000.460.13 0.13 0.13 3.38 3.61 3.50 3.50 0.41 0.47 0.46

0.07Mexico 1.040.000.000.000.100.06 0.06 0.06 1.60 1.71 1.70 1.70 0.11 0.10 0.10

1.70Others 1.320.020.000.001.771.72 1.68 1.68 1.01 1.01 1.05 1.05 1.71 1.74 1.77



Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

23.29World -3.87-1.84-0.15-0.0745.7725.24 25.38 25.23 1.73 1.89 1.81 1.81 40.30 47.61 45.84

0.73United States -18.20-0.220.000.000.980.62 0.54 0.54 1.82 1.94 1.81 1.81 1.33 1.20 0.98

22.56Total Foreign -3.50-1.62-0.15-0.0744.7824.62 24.84 24.68 1.73 1.89 1.81 1.81 38.97 46.41 44.85

none


6.45 Russia -3.30-0.360.000.0010.507.18 7.10 7.10 1.42 1.51 1.48 1.48 9.17 10.86 10.50

5.50 Ukraine -14.47-2.200.000.0013.006.40 6.40 6.40 2.16 2.38 2.03 2.03 11.90 15.20 13.00

0.70 Kazakhstan -0.66-0.010.000.000.750.81 0.80 0.80 0.76 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.53 0.76 0.75

4.17European Union 8.480.730.000.009.304.15 4.37 4.37 1.85 2.06 2.13 2.13 7.72 8.57 9.30

South America

1.27 Argentina 5.880.200.000.003.601.72 1.71 1.71 2.13 1.98 2.11 2.11 2.70 3.40 3.60

0.04 Uruguay 18.180.010.000.000.080.04 0.05 0.05 1.50 1.50 1.56 1.56 0.06 0.07 0.08

0.15 Bolivia 64.060.040.000.000.110.10 0.13 0.13 0.89 0.67 0.80 0.80 0.13 0.06 0.11

0.05 Brazil -5.77-0.010.000.000.100.06 0.06 0.06 1.22 1.65 1.56 1.56 0.06 0.10 0.10

0.05 Paraguay 10.420.010.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.64 1.60 1.66 1.66 0.07 0.05 0.05

1.04China 1.790.050.000.002.851.08 1.10 1.10 2.60 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.70 2.80 2.85

South Asia

0.48 India 0.730.00-13.44-0.040.280.38 0.38 0.33 0.66 0.72 0.84 0.84 0.32 0.28 0.32

0.09 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.080.07 0.07 0.07 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.09 0.08 0.08

Middle East

0.55 Turkey 21.210.280.000.001.600.60 0.65 0.65 2.00 2.20 2.46 2.46 1.10 1.32 1.60

0.07 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.090.07 0.07 0.07 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.01 Israel 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.02 0.02 0.02

Africa

0.01 Egypt 11.760.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 2.43 2.43 2.38 2.38 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Morocco 0.000.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.72 South Africa -22.86-0.20-15.63-0.130.680.64 0.67 0.56 1.05 1.38 1.20 1.21 0.76 0.88 0.80

0.60Burma 0.000.000.000.000.390.60 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.39 0.39 0.39

0.04Canada 13.730.010.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 1.92 1.82 2.23 2.23 0.07 0.05 0.06

0.02Australia -13.89-0.010.000.000.030.03 0.03 0.03 1.09 1.33 1.19 1.19 0.03 0.04 0.03

0.55Others -12.81-0.189.170.101.190.61 0.56 0.56 1.87 2.25 1.95 2.13 1.02 1.37 1.09



Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Feb 2015/16 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

33.86World 2.591.840.010.0173.1034.30 35.68 35.72 2.07 2.08 2.05 2.05 69.96 71.26 73.09

0.69United States 1.060.020.000.001.420.69 0.81 0.81 1.88 2.04 1.75 1.75 1.31 1.41 1.42

33.17Total Foreign 2.621.830.010.0171.6733.61 34.86 34.91 2.07 2.08 2.06 2.05 68.66 69.85 71.67

none

6.51European Union 7.581.560.000.0022.106.55 6.76 6.76 3.38 3.13 3.27 3.27 22.00 20.54 22.10

8.32Canada 9.691.900.000.0021.508.12 9.26 9.26 2.21 2.41 2.32 2.32 18.38 19.60 21.50

7.53China -9.94-1.450.000.0013.107.33 6.80 6.80 1.98 1.98 1.93 1.93 14.93 14.55 13.10

South Asia

5.75 India -8.33-0.590.000.006.506.50 6.50 6.50 1.03 1.09 1.00 1.00 5.92 7.09 6.50

0.23 Pakistan -5.00-0.010.000.000.190.21 0.20 0.20 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.22 0.20 0.19

0.25 Bangladesh 0.000.000.000.000.230.25 0.25 0.25 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.23 0.23 0.23


0.90 Russia 50.450.500.000.001.500.91 0.95 0.95 1.12 1.10 1.58 1.58 1.00 1.00 1.50

0.68 Ukraine 76.560.960.320.012.210.45 0.75 0.79 2.58 2.78 2.93 2.79 1.74 1.25 2.20

0.24 Belarus 15.380.040.000.000.300.21 0.17 0.17 1.57 1.24 1.82 1.82 0.38 0.26 0.30

0.22 Kazakhstan 32.350.060.000.000.230.16 0.23 0.23 0.62 1.06 1.00 1.00 0.14 0.17 0.23

2.09Australia -28.80-1.170.000.002.902.54 2.60 2.60 1.33 1.60 1.12 1.12 2.78 4.07 2.90

South America

0.05 Chile 13.110.020.000.000.210.05 0.05 0.05 4.00 3.98 4.14 4.14 0.21 0.18 0.21

0.09 Paraguay 20.000.010.000.000.060.03 0.04 0.04 1.00 2.00 1.50 1.50 0.09 0.05 0.06

0.02Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.070.02 0.02 0.02 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.05Ethiopia 0.000.000.000.000.070.05 0.05 0.05 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.25Others 0.190.000.000.000.520.25 0.25 0.25 2.05 2.10 2.10 2.10 0.50 0.52 0.52



Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production

Country / Region

Production


2015/16

Prel.

2016/17

2017/18 Proj.

Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent



Oilseed, Copra

0.00 0.00 0.10 4.55 Philippines 2.10 2.302.302.20

0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.63 Indonesia 1.59 1.571.571.58

0.00 0.00 0.03 4.17 India 0.72 0.750.750.72

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vietnam 0.26 0.270.270.27

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mexico 0.21 0.210.210.21

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.09 0.100.100.10

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Thailand 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sri Lanka 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Solomon Islands 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.13 2.40 World 5.32 5.545.545.41

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

0.00 0.00 0.70 7.37 Indonesia 8.50 10.2010.209.50

0.00 0.00 0.42 8.79 Malaysia 4.50 5.205.204.78

0.00 0.00 0.07 9.33 Thailand 0.68 0.820.820.75

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.73 0.730.730.73

0.06 22.22 0.09 37.50 Colombia 0.27 0.330.270.24

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Guatemala 0.13 0.150.150.15

0.00 0.00 0.01 7.69 Papua New Guinea 0.15 0.140.140.13

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Honduras 0.12 0.120.120.12

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cameroon 0.11 0.110.110.11

0.00 0.00 0.01 9.09 Ecuador 0.10 0.120.120.11

0.06 0.32 1.29 7.46 World 15.96 18.5918.5317.30

Oil, Palm

0.00 0.00 2.50 6.94 Indonesia 32.00 38.5038.5036.00

0.00 0.00 1.64 8.70 Malaysia 17.70 20.5020.5018.86

0.00 0.00 0.20 8.00 Thailand 1.80 2.702.702.50

0.36 28.35 0.48 41.74 Colombia 1.28 1.631.271.15

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.97 0.970.970.97

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Guatemala 0.63 0.740.740.74

0.00 0.00 0.03 5.36 Ecuador 0.52 0.590.590.57

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Honduras 0.49 0.550.550.55

0.00 0.00 0.01 1.92 Papua New Guinea 0.58 0.530.530.52

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ghana 0.50 0.520.520.52

0.35 0.50 4.90 7.55 World 58.90 69.7769.4264.87



Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production


MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Feb 2015/16 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)


2015/16

Prel.

2016/17 Jan Jan

Prel.

2016/17 Feb

Prel.


2017/18 Proj.2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.

2015/16

30.64World 13.8914.810.330.41121.3729.65 33.32 33.39 683 783 790 792 96.14 106.57 120.97

3.27United States 23.844.090.000.0021.263.85 4.59 4.59 859 972 1,008 1,008 12.89 17.17 21.26

27.37Total Foreign 11.9810.710.410.41100.1125.80 28.73 28.79 662 754 756 757 83.25 89.40 99.70

none

South Asia

12.30 India 5.561.50-2.73-0.8028.5010.85 12.30 12.30 458 542 519 504 25.90 27.00 29.30

2.80 Pakistan 6.490.500.000.008.202.40 2.80 2.80 544 699 638 638 7.00 7.70 8.20

3.05China 20.884.754.171.1027.502.90 3.30 3.40 1,570 1,708 1,742 1,761 22.00 22.75 26.40

South America

0.96 Brazil 14.291.002.560.208.000.94 1.10 1.12 1,345 1,621 1,544 1,555 5.90 7.00 7.80

0.38 Argentina 24.000.180.000.000.930.24 0.40 0.40 479 680 506 506 0.83 0.75 0.93

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 419 416 416 416 0.03 0.02 0.02

Africa

0.66 Burkina -0.76-0.010.000.001.300.70 0.85 0.85 363 407 333 333 1.10 1.31 1.30

0.55 Mali 8.870.111.890.031.350.66 0.73 0.73 390 412 395 403 0.98 1.24 1.33

0.40 Cote d'Ivoire 12.000.080.000.000.700.35 0.36 0.36 333 394 421 421 0.62 0.63 0.70

0.30 Benin 6.060.050.000.000.880.42 0.45 0.45 363 433 423 423 0.50 0.83 0.88

0.10 Egypt 76.470.130.000.000.300.06 0.09 0.09 697 673 718 718 0.32 0.17 0.30

0.22 Cameroon 6.380.030.000.000.500.23 0.23 0.23 510 455 484 484 0.52 0.47 0.50

0.40 Tanzania -10.71-0.030.000.000.250.35 0.35 0.35 147 174 156 156 0.27 0.28 0.25

0.26 Nigeria 2.170.010.000.000.240.28 0.27 0.27 193 182 190 190 0.23 0.23 0.24

0.10 Zimbabwe 64.230.090.000.000.230.21 0.20 0.20 115 146 245 245 0.05 0.14 0.23

0.07 Ethiopia -15.46-0.03-12.50-0.030.180.08 0.08 0.06 586 550 544 635 0.18 0.21 0.20


1.29 Uzbekistan -0.67-0.030.000.003.701.18 1.20 1.20 644 687 671 671 3.80 3.73 3.70

0.50 Turkmenistan 7.550.100.000.001.430.55 0.55 0.55 631 529 569 569 1.45 1.33 1.43

0.15 Tajikistan 16.280.070.000.000.500.17 0.18 0.18 599 567 622 622 0.41 0.43 0.50

0.10 Kazakhstan -3.33-0.010.000.000.290.12 0.13 0.13 440 568 505 505 0.20 0.30 0.29

Middle East

0.37 Turkey 25.000.800.000.004.000.40 0.47 0.47 1,559 1,742 1,853 1,853 2.65 3.20 4.00

0.04 Syria -20.00-0.040.000.000.160.04 0.04 0.04 1,034 1,089 995 995 0.19 0.20 0.16

0.10 Iran -6.67-0.020.000.000.280.10 0.10 0.10 599 653 610 610 0.28 0.30 0.28

0.31Australia 8.640.35-4.35-0.204.400.58 0.49 0.44 1,989 1,520 2,044 2,202 2.85 4.05 4.60

0.13Mexico 101.570.780.000.001.540.10 0.21 0.21 1,544 1,615 1,597 1,597 0.94 0.76 1.54

0.24Burma 2.110.020.000.000.730.24 0.25 0.25 651 634 634 634 0.72 0.71 0.73

1.60Others 9.550.352.680.114.031.68 1.61 1.63 459 476 530 538 3.37 3.68 3.92



TABLE 18 The table below presents a record of the differences between the February projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 1 percent. The average difference between the February projection and the final estimate is 2.4 million tons, ranging from 0 million to 7.3 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 27 times and above 9 times.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/

COMMODITY AND REGION

Root mean square error

90 percent confidence

interval

Difference between forecast and final estimate

Average Smallest Largest

Years Below final

Above final

Percent ---Million metric tons---

WHEAT

World 0.6 1.0 2.4 0.0 7.3 27 9

U.S. 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 15 10

Foreign 0.7 1.1 2.4 0.0 7.3 27 9

COARSE GRAINS 2/

World 1.3 2.1 10.4 0.0 36.6 29 7

U.S. 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 17 7

Foreign 1.8 3.0 10.5 0.0 36.3 27 8

RICE (Milled)

World 1.6 2.7 4.3 0.1 14.0 28 8

U.S. 1.5 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 12 6

Foreign 1.6 2.7 4.3 0.1 14.0 28 8

SOYBEANS

World 2.8 4.7 4.3 0.4 15.3 22 14

U.S. 1.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 15 15

Foreign 4.7 8.0 4.4 0.3 14.9 23 13

COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---

World 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.0 5.4 26 10

U.S. 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 14 21

Foreign 2.9 4.9 1.8 0.1 5.7 26 10

UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------

CORN 0.2 0.3 3 0 41 2 2

SORGHUM 0.1 0.2 0 0 4 0 2

BARLEY 0.8 1.3 1 0 11 16 4

OATS 0.3 0.6 0 0 2 4 4

1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2016/17. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimates following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2015/16, and for 2016/17 last month’s estimate. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain

February 2018 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA


World Agricultural Production Report

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